You need to register separately on the Chart Forum
- see Chart Forum Help
Edit Profile Profile Help Help
Forum Rules Forum Rules Advanced Help/Instructions Advanced Help
Search Last 1|3|7 Days Latest Posts Latest Posts
Search Search Forum Tree View Tree View
   
TSX Stocks 15-minute delayed

Archive through July 18, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Our Daily Bread » Archive through July 18, 2010

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»


Author Message

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
breaker_1
Member
Username: breaker_1

Post Number: 216
Registered: 10-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 13, 2010 - 02:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ha Ha Ha at what price did you buy them


When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5237
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 13, 2010 - 06:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Resources prices no laughing matter

The metals and mining index went down more than 2%, as I am sure we have all seen, and the villain of the piece was China.







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3617
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, July 14, 2010 - 04:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

I thought that I had better make an appearance or you may have thought that I had completely deserted the thread. As you assumed it would, I have been a bit preoccupied with the EWW thread.

At time of writing this post the XJO is up 72.5 points at 4452.8. Based on the following chart whilst the pattern can end at any time and the rally come to a completion, I suspect that it will continue higher to the 4465~4490 level before doing so.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5238
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, July 14, 2010 - 05:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy, - I suppose we both feel that 4500 is going to be a critical level.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5239
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, July 14, 2010 - 06:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy: EW posts

It would be true to say, Rudy, that what cat lady and I feared does rather look like happening: i.e. that we are in danger of losing the benefit of your posts for this thread. I still cannot really see why you would not put your EW material here instead of a separate thread. Those of us who are interested in both threads naturally have the difficulty of going backwards and forwards, and it is not easy in such a case to have any consecutive discussion on both threads at once. For myself, at least, I don't like that thought at all. Your EW material has now been a feature here for some considerable time, has been much valued and explicitly praised, and it is not as though people have objected to the difficulty of any of the material. In other words, while I could see some case for your posting "course" material elsewhere, the more meaty posts have in the last few days all - with just this one exception - appeared in your newly set up special thread. It is your choice, of course, but I must confess that - though I am not as intensely preoccupied with the market as some - I HAVE in recent days experienced a sense of there being a marked "gap" here, and I think it is a great pity. I would have thought that the material that you have posted has by now amply proven its worth and interest to people here, and that I am far from being alone in regretting its current absence.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3618
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, July 14, 2010 - 09:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

I truly am sorry that you are disappointed with me starting the new EW specific thread. Most of those people interested in EW have told me privately that they wanted a thread dedicated to the subject so that they could locate the EW specific stuff more easily and not have to go back through the archival storage files as they found that too difficult.

By having a thread dedicated to the subject it also means that those who are not interested in the subject do not have to be bombarded with my posts. I know that there are some ODB thread readers who are interested but equally so there are a few that are not in the least bit interested. It also allows a greater degree of continuity of subject matter for those who are interested.

If readers are interested in reading my posts without going to any trouble Colin has made it really easy for them. They simply go to their profile and use the 'edit profile' feature.

Go to the 'email notification' section and tick the "Hilarius Hall of Fame" topic. If you then click the "Choose" button in the "Select by Thread" column it will present all of the different sub threads associated with the Hilarius Hall of Fame thread. Simply tick the "Our Daily Bread" and "Elliott Wave Watching" sub threads and then click the "Save Profile Changes" button.

This will then notify readers of all posts posted ot both threads via email. I know that a number of people simply read these email notification posts without ever having to go the the Incredible Charts website. In the meantime I will attempt to post on both threads.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
whiteowl
Member
Username: whiteowl

Post Number: 88
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, July 14, 2010 - 11:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All
Re 'Finding Forum Posts'
I use Colins Link
https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/active_threads.php?&page=1
It finds ALL Forum Threads by Last Post Time
At the end of each day, I visit this one place and have access to ALL posts for the day. Its great.
I can then pick any recent thread of interest to me.
Both ODB and Rudi's EW Educational thread are my favourites.
Works well, for me anyway.
Cheers All


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5240
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 12:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy ... I have no difficulty FINDING your posts at all, and will of course keep looking at them, but it still remains, as far as I am concerned, a pity that we'll automatically see less of you here, and as one cannot and should not count on all readers reading both threads, it makes "conversation" more difficult. Certainly I don't want more emails than I am already getting! So I shall simply stick to ODB, which I like because of its very general and diversified nature, and dip into your EW thread from time to time so as to keep myself informed of what is posted there.

I don't, myself, like to post on more than one thread, so will stay with this one - but you must not see that as evidence of unwillingness to see what you are writing elsewhere. I just prefer it that way. And I do hope that you will still post here, even if it is less often, as I fear it will be. It would be a pity, I think, if you actually abandoned this thread - but then, that is not your intention.

I can understand, of course, that it is easy for people who want to concentrate heavily on EW and are less interested in other material to have a thread dedicated just to that subject. I just hope very strongly that you will not totally part company from us here!


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5241
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 12:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Markets

Kitco showed mostly negative prices for base metal spot prices, and it looks as though after a strong session in Asia, including Australia, we are on a "downer" again. Europe is mostly in the red, and Wall Street has opened lower again as well, though it had been expected to be in the black. A major reason, apart from general volatility and mixed news, is probably the following, as here described in a few paragraphs from Business Spectator:
-------------------------------------------------------
US retail sales fall more than expected in June

Published 11:22 PM, 14 Jul 2010 Last update 11:22 PM, 14 Jul 2010

QUICK SUMMARY | FULL STORY

Reuters

WASHINGTON - Sales at US retailers fell for a second straight month in June on weak receipts at automotive dealers and gasoline stations, further evidence the economic recovery has slowed in the past few months.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales slipped 0.5 per cent after a 1.1 per cent drop in May. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales falling 0.2 per cent last month.

The report adds to a number of weak economic data, including home sales and factory activity, suggesting the recovery from the most severe recession since the 1930s is cooling off a bit earlier than had been initially anticipated.

"You have seen a little bit of cooling on the consumer side of the ledger. I think this is not necessarily indicative of a double dip (recession) and is more indicative of a cyclical slowdown in the US," Morgan Stanley Smith Barney chief fixed income strategist Kevin Flanagan said in Purchase, New York.
---------------------------------------------------------
COMMENT: retail accounts for 70-75% of American economic activity, so any negative figures for that sector inevitably affect Wall Street and European markets. And others, as the US remains important, and slack retail figures are rightly seen as a negative indicator for recovery and economic progress.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5242
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 12:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here are more reasons why markets are falling, and why at least for the moment the US rally is faltering. While our part of the world at times performs better than the US and Europe that is certainly not consistently the case, and given that we have seen some weakness on the Aussie market (though not today), a follow-through tomorrow may well affect the ASX. The news below is mostly bearish - as is, in a way, to be expected, even if the odd green shoot emerges here and there.
------------------------------------------------
Stocks Halt Six-Day Rally, Treasures Gain on Economic Outlook

By Michael P. Regan and Elizabeth Stanton

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- A six-day rally in U.S. and European stocks was halted, while 10-year Treasuries ended their longest losing streak in 11 months, as evidence the economic rebound is slowing overshadowed improving forecasts at technology companies.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which had rallied more than 7 percent over the previous six sessions, slipped 0.4 percent to 1,091.03 at 9:43 a.m. in New York to snap its longest rally in three months. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.7 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields slid five basis points to 3.07 percent. Oil retreated below $77 a barrel and the euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.2705.

Banking shares led declines after Spain’s financial institutions borrowed a record $161 billion from the European Central Bank, overshadowing gains in technology stocks as Intel Corp. and ASML Holding NV forecast rising sales. U.S. retail sales fell in June for a second month and Europe’s industrial output grew less than forecast in May, indicating the pace of the global recovery slowed heading into the second half of 2010.

“There’s still concern we’ve got the actual impact of the slowdown ahead of us,” said David Chalupnik, who oversees about $10 billion as head of equities at First American Funds in Minneapolis. “The Intel news certainly was extremely strong. We’ve had a strong, short-duration rally. To take a little pause we’re viewing as normal to positive.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net; Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5243
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 12:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Without positive sentiment, no investment

This ING survey (published in FnArena) does not augur well for the months to come, on our market. The number of respondents is not large, but there is no reason to think it is atypical. The fall in Australian sentiment towards e.g. shares is quite marked. If it IS representative, and does not change quickly, it means that bears will outstrip bulls (a change we have been noting here), and, as there is also in other articles tangible evidence that FAR more money is now held in cash, our share market is certain to suffer. This is already so right now, and a reason why moves up are both (a) on thin volumes, and (b) not enduring. Any trading should take such realities into account, which is not to say that those who are nimble cannot make a success of it. However, if you go long, you will probably in increasing measure have to go quite short-term as well, and lock in profits fast. It is very reasonable to go by the facts of investment rather than the opinions of financial industry spruikers who would see the market as in essence undamaged and going up to e.g. 5500 within a matter of months. And distrust the "recovery" brigade. It may be that Australian investors are now getting too pessimistic, but one cannot ignore what they are doing, whether rightly or wrongly.
--------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------
Survey Shows Fall In Oz Investor Sentiment
FNArena News - July 15 2010

By Chris Shaw

The latest ING Investor Dashboard Sentiment survey shows Australian investor sentiment fell sharply in the June quarter, a reflection of investors looking for safe haven assets to counter poor investment performance in the period.

Martin Donnelly, head of distribution and deputy CEO of ING Investment Management, notes the survey results show Australia has fallen to second last of 12 countries in the Asia Pacific region on a sentiment basis, well down from the equal second position recorded in March.

The survey results showed expectations for poor returns weighed heavily on investors, as according to Donnelly only 46% of Australian investors expect higher returns over the coming quarter. This compares with 75% of investors expecting positive performance in the March survey.

As Donnelly notes, this outlook is a reflection of immediate past experience, as only 35% of investors recorded positive returns for the June quarter against 72% of investors recording a gain in the March quarter.

Higher interest rates are also weighing on sentiment in Australia in Donnelly's view, the survey showing 82% of investors expect domestic interest rates will go higher this year and 70% seeing any further hikes as having a negative impact on the economy.

Australian investors also remain concerned about ongoing issues in global markets, as according to the survey 88% of investors don't expect a return to pre-GFC levels for two or three years. But Donnelly suggests there is a risk of being too cautious, as ING sees return upside from Australian companies leveraged to an expected recovery in the US economy.

These expectations are centred on a number of encouraging factors, including a recovery in US productivity, improving corporate profits, growing industrial production and an expansion in US manufacturing. ING notes consumption is also strong, while re-stocking is starting to occur given US interest rates remain low.

Europe doesn't appear to be a great concern, the ING survey showing 64% of Australian investors believe the European debt crisis will have little or no impact on their investment strategy. At the same time, 57% of Australian investors expect the issues in Europe will impact on global economic growth longer-term.

Australian investors remain optimistic on the outlook for the Chinese economy, Donnelly suggesting this is likely a reflection of the fact Australia is one of the economies that would be most impacted by any slowdown in Chinese growth.

The volatility in financial markets has seen investors flock to cash deposits, gold and bonds, Donnelly noting bonds are now at their most popular level since the GFC. The survey showed 35% of investors expect further share price falls, while only 33% of investors are currently considering investing in high growth stocks. This last measure is down from 54% in the March quarter.

Donnelly notes ING's view remains positive, as the group sees fundamental value in the Australian equity market given a one-year forward earnings multiple of around 11 times at present. This compares to a long-run average of around 14 times. The key to good investment returns in 2010 will be stock selection in Donnelly's view.

The ING survey measures investor sentiment across 12 countries in the Asia Pacific region with a focus on changes in market sentiment, investment attitude investment performance and the financial situation of more than 3,700 investors. The Australian portion of the survey included 307 investors with liquid assets of more than US$100,000.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5244
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 12:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Commodities

Prices for commodities overnight were weak, which is bad for our market, though in tune with their general pattern of late (and out of keeping with the assumptions of Ken Henry and Wayne Swan, as things currently stand).

Commodities

Aluminium -0.25
Copper -0.30
Nickel -0.80
Gold -0.36
Oil (West Texas)-0.14
Lead -0.82
Zinc -1.35

On Kitco, spot prices (which are current) are also mostly in the red.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3620
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 03:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

I have been unable to post all day because of an issue that Colin has just sorted out for me. I can understand your concerns and will attempt to post as often as I can.

I am currently going through the process of getting the EWW thread settled so that I am happy with where it's at and will have more time to post in other threads when that focus has been completed.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3621
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 03:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Whiteowl,

Thanks for your input. I'm delighted that our threads are amongst your list of favourites.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3623
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 05:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The USD looks like it's getting close to a bounce level

As can be seen from the chart, the USD looks like it's coming to a strong support level which could cause a bit of a bounce. A bounce in the USD would translate into a fall in the equities.




The support appears to be of medium strength with much stronger support below it near the 80.65 to 81.20 level. That could mean that we could get a minor bounce at the first level and a stronger bounce at the lower level.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 4
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 09:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everyone,

A new poster to add to the mix.

I have been learning my EW with the great assistance of Rudy over the past few months. I'll continue to post on Rudy's EWW Thread for EW issues, but thought I'd add a few posts here as well.

Interested to get any TA views on the potential top of the SPX?

SPX overnight showed signs that the S&P might have topped out @ 1099.46.

- Bearish cross with negative divergence on the 60 minute
- Descending Triangle setting up on the 15 minute
- Overhead resistance on the 60 minute, 26 April/21 June high trend
- Broadening Top formation forming over the past two days
- Overbought on the RSI 60 minute
- Slow Stochastic, TMF, MACD turning south
- VIX at support levels
- Volumes down 3.6b
- Doji Reversal touching the SMA200 on the Dow ($DJI)


JPMorgan Chase (JPM) earnings come out before Thursday's opening bell, which may alter things.

I plan to begin to buy into SPXU, TZA, and FAZ in the dips in the next 24 hours for the upcoming ride south.

Many thanks to all the regular posters on this Thread - for those here as 'begineers' your insight is welcomed.

cheers

Bill


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5245
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 07:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy: bounce in the US$

I agree with you, Rudy, and for more than one reason.

(1)From an Australian perspective a level of around 88 cents, while commodities are weak, looks suspect. During the RSPT crisis - which admittedly was an abnormal situation - we fell much further, with 82-3 cents not unrepresentative, and even touching 80 or thereabouts. The Canadian dollar did a lot better, but even it did fall against the US$. So, weak commodities tend to be counteracted by a higher US$, just as our dollar very much runs in parallel with the commodities index. (In around September 2008 that index and the A$ both fell by 20% at the same time, just in a fortnight.)

(2) The negative feeling towards commodities is not just China induced, but more representative than that, for a bearish attitude on a wider front. For example, globally industrial production has declined, which is negative for commodities. And it is also negative for comsumption, as it indicates that producers expect consumption to go down. In the US, consumption has just slumped for the second month.

(3) With investment in assets, or a productive process, becoming less attractive, the US$ always tends to become stronger, as people buy US bonds - or otherwise park their money in the US$ - rather than put it elsewhere. This remains the case even despite a weaker-than-traditional US economy: not only Americans, but also investors elsewhere, tend to get out of equities and other assets, and move money into cash, when they fear deflation and reduced economic activity. That is the climate we are currently in. So the brief though not unremarkable rally in US equities that we have seen is very likely now in danger, with Wall Street probably heading south, and the US$ likely to go up. I do not mean that the dollar will go up in direct proportion to the likely decline in US share markets, either, but I do think there is an inverse relationship.
--
I have just bought something overseas using what I think is a fairly high A$ still, but did not want to postpone buying any longer, since I think our currency is once again at risk.

And I point out that although some news has been good, there is MORE news, globally, that points in the direction of a second dip, or at least at non-performance, economically. The idea of robust growth will certainly prove wrong, I dare predict, for the US and Europe, but even in Asia is is likely to be less strong than before. Not only because Asia is not isolated from world events, but also because China, in particular, will need to be constantly vigilant in order to ensure that matters don't overheat. And China will not hesitate to clamp down on what it thinks DOES overheat.That does not mean it will not still be a very active economy, but it does mean that it is very likely to grow less fast, and indeed to continue to keep matters subdued. All in all, although Australia will probably still do OK, it is very probable that it will do less well than people like Swan and Henry think.

So while one does not as yet foresee anything like a collapse in Australia, our economy is at present showing signs of coming "off the boil", with e.g. house prices now definitely declining and auction clearances down, and people becoming much less ready to invest: far more money is now kept in cash than a number of months back when it went into investment. The retail sector is variable, and harder to pick. Investment in housing and equities, however, is definitely declining in volume. As against that, if consumption does not also decline, and if job growth continues to increase, the RBA will raise interest rates. So the picture is not straightforward and simple, with different things moving at different rates.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5246
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 07:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill: welcome!

I read your post with great interest and hope that you will continue to post here as well as anywhere else.

That was a very impressive list as to why the S&P may have topped out. And I agree with your assessment as well as Rudy's that in all likelihood the short though vigorous S&P rally (along with other rallies) may no well have come to an end. Indeed, I would put a more than even bet on it. A major factor in American sentiment will be that there are some very weak yet crucial spots in the US economy: declining consumption always frightens people there, as it should, given the country's addiction to spending.

I fear it has become almost habitual for Americans to think that they no longer should be making industrial things for sale elsewhere (or even for themselves): the attitude appears to be "we get others to do that for us, at a low labour cost, and buy from them, while we gamble on increasing asset prices, as there is plenty of monetary and fiscal stimulus for us to do so". An economy with this mindset can do nothing other than repeatedly suffer asset bubbles which get punctured, and longer-term declines in its status of living.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 147
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 08:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G’Day Jaded,

I’ve noted that you have an ability to cut to the chase, so to speak, you pick up on something which has been a nagging doubt somewhere in the back of my mind and express it in a clear manner.

This time I’m gunna get in first with a Jaded, well maybe. On the other hand I might get into trouble . .

The Gillard government seems dead set on setting up a centre for boat people in East Timor. I’d use the term “asylum seekers” if I knew for sure that’s what they were and not just people expecting a life, thanks to the Aussie taxpayer, far above any previous standard of living.

It seems to me that this means buying or renting land and building a “camp” which presumably means somewhere as good or better than a very big Aussie caravan park in East Timor. It seems to me that down the track this is a gross waste of the Aussie taxpayer dollar when there is a perfectly good recently used but now unoccupied centre already in Nauru.

It gets weirder when Nauru will bend over backwards for the business while East Timor’s parliament says they are not interested and the Gillard government should look elsewhere. Foreign Minister Smith is in Indonesia for discussions, why the hell is he not in E Timor?

It seems Labor can’t stomach Nauru because it sees it as loss of face.

Jaded, how did I do? Oh, and yeah I am a paying user of IC (answer to previous question).


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
breaker_1
Member
Username: breaker_1

Post Number: 219
Registered: 10-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 08:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'd jump on a boat to... Hard hats, life jackets , safety harness jump on board this here big patrol boat[ ie taxi] and heres a free feed and where would you like the new mosque built


When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5247
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 10:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy: a request for you to consider ...

Rudy, I have gone through your EW thread with some attention (not as a truly thorough reader, I must admit!).

It struck me, as someone who has only learned UNsystematically about EW by reading your posts over the years, that I would have greatly benefited - as I still do and as I am sure many would - from just such a survey of the ESSENTIALS as you have been producing on your thread, but which is intermixed with more specialised or "applied" posts (applied to actual current situations, that is).

What I think would provide a tremendous service to potentially EVERYONE on IC is if you split off these posts (there are about eight of them: 3588, 3591, 3596, 3597. 3601, 3602, 3606, and 3616) as a "block". I know that you think that people could turn these into "a Word document of their own making", and no doubt, with a bit of trouble, we all could. But doing that, I feel, actually REMOVES much of the use of what you present, which in essence is a very lucid and personal introduction to EW. And there would be absolutely nothing condescending or presumptuous on your part in calling it "An Introduction to Elliott Wave Study" (or some such title).

If you did put all these posts, and any others you might still write, together in a section called "Introduction to Elliott Wave Study", without any intermixing of other posts, then it would be possible for a student like myself, who feels he still needs to grasp and learn the basics SYSTEMETICALLY, to read through this material consecutively with ease. If one were to get stuck at all one would go back to previous posts to see where one might have got lost, and one would gradually work one's way through the whole "course", which in a way it is even if you didn't quite intend it that way. And we could always, if we didn't understand the various posts at some point, ask you for an explanation.

Another major advantage is that in more sophisticated or applied analysis of specific situations you could then regularly refer readers BACK to the "Introductory material", even by mentioning the number of the post in which e.g. a particular phenomenon such as an impulse wave is described. I think that many of us could still well do with such references, or at least a section where we can usefully and easily look for your description of such a thing for ourselves.

None of this is to minimise the importance of the other posts, or to suggest that you should not continue them (along with others that you post here on ODB - or might double-post). Rather, I think that currently it is awkward to deal with the intermixing of your material, and that you'd achieve a yet better result than you already are doing by STARTING your thread with "A: Introductory material", followed by "B: Application of EW concepts and patterns" (just possible titles). Actually ... it would probably be handiest if there were TWO separate threads, that make it possible for the reader to go to the one with the label wanted. That also has the advantage that you can add further introductory/general material to that particular section, and - under a different heading, but consecutively, and without interspersion - the more specific analytical material in the other section. My general sense was currently that the two sections are too much intertwined and intermixed to be consecutive or easy to keep apart.

So a lucid separation of two "blocks" (where you can still cross-refer) would, I believe, be a great help. It would enable one more easily to collect the introductory material systematically (perhaps even by simply printing out the posts), while yet that material should - I feel very strongly - PERMANENTLY stay posted for easy reference, here on Incredible Charts. I think that such a point of departure which at the same time would be one of frequent reference or return would be of immense benefit to us all, including also yourself in that you could refer to it in all subsequent discussion whenever you feel the need arises. For remember: people move in and out of threads in a way which is not necessarily systematic, and that makes a place where material IS systematically presented and preserved extremely valuable.

You don't need to fear that this will mean duplication of what is already written by others (outside IC): that, I am sure, concerns noone here - we want to see YOUR presentation, interpretation, digest, etc., of what YOU feel you can with conviction pass on to others, after having spent much time examining this material receptively but critically.

"Please consider" (was that about the Misubishi Lancer??)!


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5248
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 15, 2010 - 10:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bridog: East Timor versus Nauru

Unsurprisingly, I agree with what you write, Bridog. But what is logical is not necessarily what a politician will or - in an instance like this - politically CAN do. Julia Gillard has boxed herself into a corner of her own making over this matter, and I think that so far her handling of this is possibly her most vulnerable area, in that it of course raises major concerns about her judgement. That question of judgement must also concern us as investors in shares, the economy, etc.

My attitude is that Gillard is an acute danger to sound governance of this nation, and not least its economy, about which she knows practically nothing. But my argument here will not be specifically about economic matters but her lack of sound judgement such as any good manager should have.

It is politically impossible for Gillard to send people to Nauru as that would make explicit what is in fact implicit in her approach to East Timor, viz. that she is only too happy to adopt a method which was invented by, and has politically worked reasonably well for, John Howard. Her plan was, of course, to persuade East Timor easily (more about this below), and to "blacken" Nauru by pointing out that it is not a UN signatory.

This last supposed obstacle is in effect already removed because Nauru has declared itself willing to become such a signatory.

What Gillard foolishly relied on, no doubt, was her sense that East Timor "owes us", and would act at her bidding. This has proved a serious misjudgement - similar in its lack of realism to the misjudgements that we saw when (at her suggestion) the ETS was sent into the wilderness, and later (not at her suggestion) when we were confronted with the "policy" of the RSPT. ALL of these wild decisions were taken without proper consultation and proper thought about what other people might think. They were decisions taken by ivory tower intellectuals who have infinite contempt for the "ordinary" people with whom they claim to have affinity.

Having seen that her East Timor plan was going to fail, Gillard then claimed that she had not said about it what she did say, i.e. that this was her preference in exploring the possibility of establishing a "processing centre" outside Australia. As noone actually accepted that she had not contradicted herself, and once Gusmao promised talks about the matter, she changed her position once again, going back to position "A" and totally ignoring that she had meanwhile adopted position "B".

So we now have the bizarre situation that, officially, it is East Timor which is being "explored", and Nauru, which IS willing to act as a clearing house, which is being ignored. All the evidence is that East Timor will NOT consent to Gillard's request: Gusmao is not going to do this with Parliament (in a complete session or otherwise) firmly opposing the idea, as it has already twice done, and even Ramos Horta is laying down theoretical conditions impossible to meet.

Hence Gillard will stall this whole issue until after the election, and indeed one reason why an election is likely to be early is that there are too many issues like this which could otherwise trip her up. You can only pretend, and hoodwink the electorate, for so long. Climate change is another business which in essence she is postponing until after the election. She will in all respects try to pull a "swiftie"; although she will probably also see dangers in that approach, which will require her to balance matters carefully (as much as that can be done ...).

The thing which really precipitated Rudd's downfall was the RSPT: that is why in THAT particular instance Gillard HAD to find a compromise. She could exploit Rudd's stupidity and intransigence concerning the RSPT, which would have cost him the election. So, although the proposed "new" tax has drawbacks of its own, she is less vulnerable on that particular score. That factor, combined with a less autocratic and bizarre style (as distinct from substance), may well see her into office. As well, a number of people will vote for her as they dislike Abbott, however much better he would be as a PM, and in that respect she of course is a real alternative to Rudd, who had, ironically, become unelectable while claiming that Abbott was in that position. Internal Labor polling revealed that matters were in fact the other way round.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 5
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 12:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Waterfalls & knife drops on the Street.

Loaded up early in the US Thursday session on some shorts to ride the trip south:

-TZA Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares Russell 2000 -300% RTY
-BGZ Daily Large Cap Bear 3x Shares Russell 1000 -300% RIY
-FAZ Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares Russell 1000 Financial Services -300% RGUSFL

My earlier analysis on the S&P top proved to be true.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 921
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 01:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The "Yin and Yang" or market forecasting....

"YIN"
------

U.S. Economy "Rolling Over," China at Risk of "Greek-like" Debt Crisis, Nenner Says
Jul 15, 2010 09:41am EDT by Aaron Task

The economy is "rolling over," says noted cycle-watcher Charles Nenner, who predicts the U.S. economy will "slowly go into double-dip" later this year.

And that's the good news!

"I hope it's going to stay a recession," Nenner continues. "Any major problems will really get us into depression. I'm still very negative on the outcome of this big economic crisis."

How negative?

The economy will suffer a Japanese-like stagnation for the remainder of the decade and "there's nothing [governments] can do to stop it," Nenner says. "There has to be deflation in this period, whatever they do deflation is coming anyway."

Deflation now...followed by a serious bout of inflation, that is.

Nenner believes a Greek-like debt crisis "could also happen" in the U.S., but is currently more concerned about such an event occurring in China. "The problem is they gave out a lot of loans to farmer who are simply not into the way of thinking that they have to pay it back," he says.

The most recent data on GDP, industrial production, real estate and other metrics show China's economy has cooled, just as its central planners intended. But a debt crisis in China is simply not on the radar of most market watchers or economists. Most experts believe China's roughly $2.5 trillion of foreign currency reserves should cushion any blow from debt defaults or a slowing economy or even the air coming out of the real estate bubble.

But Nenner disagrees: "If the population really continues to have the policy of not paying back the loans [China] gets in trouble," he says.

As Seeking Alpha contributor Cliff Wachtel points out, Nenner is "not infallible" (who among us is?) but "his accuracy...has been sufficiently impressive to keep clients coming back for more."

And all this negativity about the U.S. (and global) economy is a big reason why Nenner thinks the Dow will fall as low as 5000 in the coming years before bottoming.


___


Enjoy the recent stock market rally while it lasts. Market forecaster Charles Nenner tells Tech Ticker stocks will peak in about a month and then head south for the year.

“After late August I expect the market to go down again,” and eventually test the March 2009 lows in the next few years, he says on the phone from Israel. Therefore, long-term investors would be wise to use this rally as an opportunity to get out of stocks. “I see this as a bear market rally,” he says comparing the U.S. market to Japan – a prolonged bear market with wild fluctuations.

Until the end of August, stocks will trade in a tight range, he predicts. His near term upside target is 1155 on the S&P 500, but that’s only if it first breaks 1100. If the market finds resistance and closes below 1085, it could spell trouble.

It’s worth paying attention to Nenner's warning. As Seeking Alpha contributor Cliff Wachtel points out, Nenner has a pretty good track record with his recent calls:

• In early 2009, when markets appeared on the brink of collapse, Nenner said the S&P 500 was going from 660 to over 1000 within the coming year.

• In early 2009, he foretold gold’s 6-month run from June in the low $900s to $1220, within mere dollars of its ultimate peak at $1225.

• More recently, in December 2009 he called the top in U.S. stocks within 4 days.

His advice for the average investor: “You don't want to get in the market,” he says. “For the next couple of years, just be happy if you don’t lose money.”

When will it be safe to go back in the water? Not until the market experiences a lot more pain, he forecasts. Don’t bet on stocks for the long haul, “until you get below 7000. And preferably if you wait till 5000, which is my downside target on the Dow Jones.”



and....

"YANG"
-------

Editor's note: For a more optimistic view on the U.S. economy, see: Liz Ann Sonders: 9 Reasons Why the U.S. Economy Won't Suffer a 'Double Dip'
___

Liz Ann Sonders: 9 Reasons Why the U.S. Economy Won't Suffer a 'Double Dip'
Posted Jul 13, 2010 12:45pm EDT by Aaron Task


The U.S. economy is experiencing "a slowdown, not a meltdown" and won't suffer a ‘double-dip' recession, according to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co.

The negatives facing the economy are well known, including high unemployment, housing rolling over, China slowing, Europe imploding, uncertainty over U.S. policy and higher taxes in 2011, runaway government deficits worldwide and the end of global stimulus.

Sonders doesn't dismiss these (and other) factors and admits "the end of the ‘V'-part [of the recovery] happened a little more abruptly than we'd anticipated."

But in a report this week on Schwab's Web site she lists a number of positive trends that aren't getting enough attention and suggest GDP will remain in positive territory, even if growth is muted:

* -- Leading economic indicators from the OECD and Conference Board show little or no risk of near-term recession. (And while the ECRI's weekly leading index has tumbled in recent weeks, it hasn't triggered a recession yet, ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan said during a recent appearance on Tech Ticker.)
* -- Ned Davis Research's "recession probability model" remains near 0%, and the firm's "financial stimulus index" also indicates little risk of recession this year; in fact, NDR's latter index is at levels consistent with solid economic growth.
* -- Unemployment claims have likely resumed their decline. (Even at their current level they suggest 2.5% real GDP in the third quarter.)
* -- The Business Roundtable CEO survey of employment plans is at its highest reading since 2006.
* -- Corporate profits are booming and corporate cash is at a record $1.8 trillion.
* -- The rate of contraction of bank lending to commercial and industrial companies is slowing noticeably.
* -- Durable good orders, though down in May, are in a strong rising trend and up nearly 20% from their recession low.
* -- Economic readings in emerging economies remain very healthy.
* -- The Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future and could reinstate quantitative easing were the recovery to falter further.

Of course, the bears can cite a litany of other metrics to make their case for a double dip (or worse). Still, it's worth noting that Sonders called the start of the recession in late 2007 and its end in June 2009; both calls went against the grain of prevailing conventional wisdom at the time and (surprise surprise), both proved prescient.

If Vinny Catalano is right about the dire consequence of another downturn, here's hoping Sonders is right again.

.....ah, don't you just love it!

Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. Dow has been down as much as 115pts(1%) earlier on with a 'weak'? rally underway; see if she can hold the 10200(and S&P500...1080) suppt. by day's end!


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5249
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 02:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dolphin,

Not only do I find the Yin case more in tune with the way financial crises develop and what points in this direction right now, but my problem with the Yang commentary is that almost all of it is based on good figures that HAVE BEEN achieved as a result of strong monetary and fiscal stimulus, or at least that we cannot ignore such stimulus in assessing matters. The question is: how can we assess what markets will do without such stimulus? To do so, we have to disengage ourselves from such temporary and artificial results and look into the future not only on the basis of history generally, but signs - and there are many - that weakening is occurring already while, for the future, stimulus cannot go on stimulating us - simply not physically possible. Perhaps most worrying is that Americans are once again seriously talking about further stimulus!!

In other words I agree that the key will be to ensure one does not lose money, and in particular makes sure one has enough income to GAIN, at least relatively. Counting on an increase in asset values will prove a dangerous policy. Cash, and income built on cash, will usually give the best results - with perhaps a few other additional solutions. But there won't be many. The share markets will be unreliable, and disappoint many.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5250
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 04:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Part of an account (from Busines Spectator) about New York overnight. And it is not positive. Europe was also down.
---------------------------
Wall St slips on deflation concerns

Published 11:49 PM, 15 Jul 2010 Last update 3:52 AM, 16 Jul 2010

By Angela Moon of Reuters

NEW YORK - US stocks have slipped on anemic economic data that overshadowed solid earnings results from banking bellwether JPMorgan Chase & Co.

An unexpected fall in factory activity and a third straight month of decline in producer prices raised concerns about deflation, cooling investors' enthusiasm about earnings season that had lifted the stock market off its recent lows in early July.

Dow component JPMorgan Chase, which reported earnings during premarket trade, fell 1.5 per cent to $US39.75, even as second-quarter profit topped estimates and its loan loss reserves dropped by $US1.5 billion. Much of the gains came in areas that will not be a stable future source of income.

Jim Awad, managing director at Zephyr Management in New York, said the data confirmed that the recovery is slowing in pace, "adding to fears that post stimulus, the economy is going to ratchet down in terms of its recovery."


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
jaded
Member
Username: jaded

Post Number: 245
Registered: 03-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 09:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



bridog,
i don't wish to get into the asylum seekers 'debate'.My angles are too 'weird' and indefensible against what is said in the papers by leaned commentators so I'll just put up some propositions.

Nauru vs Timor- There's a Roman Catholic twist to Timor over Nauru.There is also a Diplomatic preference if only based on Geography.It is 'easier' to 'store' Asylum Seekers in Timor than in Nauru.Such a 'camp' may initiate dialog between Indonesia and Timor.Put some pressure on Indonesia to halt the Smuggling whatever because of 'face saving' ie Timor an ex indo 'state' is doing the 'right' thing and cleaning up Indonesian Inaction etc etc High Diplomacy rave.

On Diplomacy I don't think Australia wants or should use the Pacific Islands.Not only is the Pacific a 'preserve' of New Zealand but we have just as much problems with Islanders as we do Afgani's/Moslems etc.Probably more so.Seems there's more Islanders here than Moslems and I wonder how many are 'Legal' let alone not on the Taxpayer Payroll.

Besides there's too much concentration on these Boats.Plenty of White,European Illegals here.I've met some of them.Permanent Residented,been here years,just waiting for Amnesty to legitimise the wife and kids,citizenship etc.Speak English,even with an Irish brogue and one is left alone,no worries.

It's all a Joke.People like Breaker 1 come out with the standard cliches about Mosques etc when they live out in the sticks of central Queensland and have probably never seen a burka or head scarfed moslem woman.Probably never eaten a falafel let alone Goat Curry!!

but don't just think it's the inner city elite that supports Asylum Seekers.It's also/mainly the Religious 'Left',Social Action crowd of the Catholics along with the fringe religions like Seventh Day Adventists etc.

The latter is BIG on Islanders.Gives them Parishioners to justify their No Tax Status for schools,church land holdings,let alone the Ministers Wages or Tithe.

Anyway,it's all highly complicated and not really a subject for this forum.
Our hearts and minds are concerned with Mammon but maybe next time the Australia Card debate rises up,one should not go off on the hoary chestnut of Civil Liberties/Big Brother if one really does want these Illegals dealt with.

happy trading.

ps-bridog/breaker AQR on a retrace may be d'Go


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
breaker_1
Member
Username: breaker_1

Post Number: 221
Registered: 10-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 10:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"falafel" ? I thought was something you died with in your hand


When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
breaker_1
Member
Username: breaker_1

Post Number: 222
Registered: 10-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 10:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Did'nt see last line re AQR

Thanks Jaded


When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3624
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 10:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You may well be right about the SPX but I personally think that it may spike up tonight to the top of the Upper Bollinger Band before it begins it's downward move.

Note that the price action is just a little short of the UBB and the %R indicator is just a bit short of the top of the 'overbought' range.




Looking at the 35 minute chart you can see that we have had 3 thrusts up at the current level. I suspect that it may spike up sometime tonight. You can expect some wide range moves under these sort of "compressed" conditions.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3627
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 11:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

Your last comment immediately brought to mind Pauline Hanson's "please explain" comment.

I do appreciate your thoughts about the set up of what I am currently doing.

If I attempted to start another separate thread dedicated to the 'course' material as you suggest it could also attract other posters with questions (which I always encourage anyway) that will also possibly disrupt the flow of the material. It is the nature of public forums. I understand that the disruption would no doubt be a lot less but it would still not achieve what you have in mind.

The other point that I do wish to make is the following. From my own experience and those of others I know who have seriously studied the Elliott Wave methodology it is clear to me that this methodology is not one that can be understood by a superficial reading of the subject matter. As I have said at another time EW analysis is both simple yet complicated. An experienced EW trader with some 30 years experience once told me that it takes about 10 years to really understand the subject. My friend Andrew has told me a similar story.

When I first started studying EW analysis I thought that it could not be that difficult. As I shared much of my learning experience with the readers of the OBD thread many will recall the very difficult period that I went through at one stage where it appeared that I actually went backwards in my TA abilities. I can vividly recall your concern at various times. The reality is that EW analysis is a subject that needs to be read, thought about, used, re-read again (several times), used again, and eventually you will get the hang of it to a degree that it can become of use in your trading. I think that you realise that I have been studying EW analysis now a little over a year in an extremely focussed way. I am now starting to get a feel for it and I believe that with practice I will get even better in its use.

My main point again is that EW analysis requires effort. I have gone to the trouble of attempting to make the subject as simple as possible in my EWW thread. It costs the reader nothing in monetary terms. All that it costs them is a little bit of effort. Now I did suggest that if readers were truly interested they could easily cut and paste the relevant subject matter into a Word document.

In fairness as there may be some who are not technically competent to perform this task, I shall do it for them. As there is a file size limit I will have to do it is bite sized chunks and they can print out the individual files when I publish them.

Unlike official teaching institutions like schools, technical colleges or universities where teachers are charged with the responsibility of teaching a broad spectrum of student ranging from those who are totally disinterested all the way through to those who can genuinely see the benefits of learning my effort is purely dedicated to those who have a genuine interest in learning something that can in the long run greatly benefit thier trading/investment decisions. The benefits are immeasurable.

For me, if I can help even one more person to learn a skill that has immeasurable benefits then I will have achieved my goal. I have had the joy to have been able to help several people along this path in the past so I already feel that my efforts have been worth it.

So what I will do in future is to combine as many of the 'course material' posts on the EWW thread within the limits of the file size restrictions and post them on that thread. This will be an ongoing process as I add more material.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5251
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 12:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy, - It certainly wasn't my intention to suggest that you can learn to practice EW analysis within a short time. I have watched your own evolution with great interest, and seen how you have progressed: I doubt many could have done it more quickly, and you learned a lot within what must be regarded as a short time, yet it took many months. All that is fine and as it should be.

But my point is not really concerned with, or at odds, with that. If I ask for the "introductory" material to be made more readily accessible, that is because at the moment it is interspersed with more advanced posts, and it would be handy to have the "basics" all together: NOT as a substitute for a long learning process and much practice, but simply as a way into the subject and an area of reference.

So I still think it would be good if you could put that material together in one place, digitally, for permanent reference (even in your own posts). If that is too difficult, however, then the next best thing would be to know, in a case like my own, which posts to print out (rather than cut and paste, notably also because there are illustrations involved), so that, with a bull-nose clip, I could keep those posts together as some sort of booklet and source of instruction as well as reference. I would certainly do that, and I think many others might well do the same.

None of this, I do realise, is in any sense a replacement for long practice. It's more a matter of people like me making sure, with that material in hand, that one can understand your more complicated posts from a stronger basis. For I think these lucid introductory, educational statements are invaluable as such. And one must learn to crawl before one can stand, alone walk.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3631
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 03:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

For those interested readers, I have just posted on my Elliott Wave Watching thread two pdf files. These pdf files condense the stuff that could be considered to be course material relating to the Elliott Wave methodology which I have posted on that thread to date.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 923
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 05:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy....all I can say is that you are a man with great patience and consideration. My 1st post on the EWW thread(2nd overall post) I thought would have covered some of Ody's 'concerns/request/suggestions????', especially the 2nd link highlighting "a condensed overview" of the application/understanding of the EW Theory and that would have been sufficient for most 'newbees' who wanted to get a basic 'education' on the principals of this form of T/A.

Regardless, I am very happy with the additional pdf files you have just attached on that thread and appreciate your efforts once again.

Ody...O.S,(US) action tonight may very well 'clarify' the direction of the next few hundreds of XJO points. I'm particularly watching what our A$ does as either it is 'tracking' our XJO(almost point for point) or 'leading' our stock market. Are we going to see a bounce of some sort on the base metals(maybe a reason for the A$ holding its recent 'lofty' levels? I also read the Shanghia Index chart as nearing or at a short-term bottom.

Cheers
Dolphin

(Message edited by gdd3 on July 16, 2010)


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3634
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 05:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

There are heaps of books on EW on the net but sometimes if someone just says things just a little bit differently it can help. That's my aim.


Yes tonight should be interesting. I would expect a thrust up through the current resistance at 1099 but would then expect a retrace of some sort. I could be wrong I can sense that we're going to see some big moves on the SPX tonight.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
eblode
Member
Username: eblode

Post Number: 1422
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 05:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bridog,
I spent the day selling out half my portfolio in anticipation of a downward trend. The very fact that volume is so light, good news from China showed no positive reaction on the market and the general malaise of the leaders indicate that on the first negative report from anywhere the market will drop. In such an atmosphere I do not wish to be caught with too much capital invested in shares.
Next week I'll only have a few shares to worry about and they are long term in any case.

Eugenio


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
whiteowl
Member
Username: whiteowl

Post Number: 89
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 05:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yin and Yang of the AUD

Just a quick note to highlight the uncertainty in the AUD/USD FX rate.
The date and graph below are from a Reuters Poll taken today surveying approximately 50 financial institutions
and show the variance in expectations over the next 12 months.
So the experts agree that it could be $0.73 OR $1.00
Trust the financial experts ? .. sure can (NOT)







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5253
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2010 - 07:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eugenio: selling off

Instinctively I agree with you, Eugenio, though we may both be wrong. Interestingly, today - unusually - there were more stocks on our market that reached new highs than lows, and just possibly that might suggest that we have reached some kind of equilibrium. Up volume also exceeded down volume. Nevertheless, whether one looked at small caps or the largest ones, the decline across the board was 0.4%. And I think there is a negative tone that seems to be pervasive.

HOWEVER ... if the "Wealth" section of _The Australian_ mainly devotes its pages to how to make the best of hybrids and deposits, it is just possible that the more venturesome bulls would think of investing. The amount of money that has left the market is truly large, and that might just prompt some aggressive buying. I don't mean that I personally believe this - but it is not inconceivable.

I would have thought, myself, that the market needs to go lower to be truly attractive to the bulls, although it truly is hard to say.

In any case, I don't think that many of us see a big and prolonged rally ahead, so all in all that might well mean that there is little harm in being conservative.

Also, I think 4500 on the XJO will form a barrier, so - as that is pretty close - that is another factor holding me back.

Meanwhile deposits have come to offer stronger rates, even for e.g. 6-months periods. This is not - or not just - a matter of RBA decisions, but also - probably more significantly - of the banks competing for deposits from private Australians, who are less awkward and more reliable to deal with than American financiers. I would expect the deposit market to remain strong (even if publicity in their favour is now perhaps in overdrive). And that will not help the share market. As you say, Eugenio, volumes are on the whole very modest.

As well, the residential property market is demonstrably slowing down, with little interest in building, and falling (or at least not rising) prices for established homes. Auction clearance rates are deteriorating. With this market at last beginning to falter somewhat, that will again not encourage the buying of shares.

In general, I don't think this is perceived to be a time for shares - not among a large group of buyers, at any rate, which one would need to keep the market up.

There are, of course, many different views on these matters, and that applies also to the dollar, as whiteowl has observed.

My own view is that Europe and the US are certainly NOT doing well. Asia is more doubtful, but ... the growth rate in China has now gone down from 12% to 10% (crudely). Sure, one can congratulate the Chinese on achieving what they set out to do, i.e. to reduce activity. But that must, even so, mean more limited opportunities for us. I also think that with - apparently - 64 million homes standing empty in China there is a legitimate question mark hanging over their property market. As well, there has been more industrial activity in China, but the Baltic Dry is deteriorating rather than improving, which to me suggests that the Chinese are using up materials they had stored, but are not in a hurry to order replacements. That might then well indicate that their sales, or at least their attitude to sales, must be interpreted from a pessimistic rather than an optimistic viewpoint. Such a view is supported by American retail sales definitely falling.

I am not necessarily talking longer term, but short to medium term. I don't even wish to enter into political considerations, except that there are several uncertainties there. People not only worry that Gillard might after all not get in, but also - and perhaps more so - that she WILL get in but not be up to the task required of her. And her integrity/honesty is now under a very big cloud. Again, that is not a factor which makes people feel comfortable about where we are going economically and in terms of the parameters the government might/will set.

So there are uncertainties galore, with little by way of definite incentive to invest in assets right now. Even gold has fallen prey to the general deflationary mood, and I sold my lot - still with a small profit, but I should have quitted before. I underrated the way fears about inflation would convert into fears about deflation. I think we shall actually see a mixture: inflation, still, in a number of luxury activities such as travel and goods that simply have to go up such as vegetables; deflation in assets, however, which for markets tends to be more important. And if the RBA raises rates because of inflationary worries, that will then further encourage deflation.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 9
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, July 17, 2010 - 09:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

My previous post 6 on EWW re the SPX looks sound. My 'subminuettes' may have paid off!

The top I called on the SPX @ 1099.46 seems set.

Minute wave circle “ii” completed and Minute wave circle “iii” of Minor wave 3 has commenced.

Subminuette wave i of minuette wave (i) of Minute wave circle “iii” completed intra day Thursday @ 1080.53, with subminuette wave ii terminating @ 1096.48. Wave iii looks like it could have terminated at 1063.32.

As subminuette wave ii over corrected, subminuette wave iv’s bounce should be minimal. It may however surprise on the upside, before Subminute wave v of minuette wave (i) to complete c1010.

Then a bearish pattern with the likely target for Minute Wave circle iii being 904.

SPX terminating at 800 would be still a possible target on the Prechter type count.

Volumes on the short positions increasing. (TZA, BGZ, FAZ, etc)

Interested to get your thoughts in the Market Wrap this week...

Ody, it was of interest that your sold out of your remaining ETF Gold. I am still holding a bundle. I am beginning to worry that if this major correction continues there may be a sell off of everything, including gold, back into US Bonds. It makes little sense considering the mess that the US is in? But the 'deflation' trade in the last 24 hours on POG might be a sign of things to come. If POG breaks us$1180, I think I will be following you. However if the markets pull back 20-30%, the $AUD should retreat <70cents, which will offset any POG decline.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
eblode
Member
Username: eblode

Post Number: 1423
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, July 17, 2010 - 10:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody,

I believe I sold off half my portfolio just in time to avoid the carnage of next Monday's sell off with a drop of 261 on the DOW on Friday. More to come.

Eugenio


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3635
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, July 17, 2010 - 03:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Good call matey. Playing the minuettes are paying off. You are a born musician.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 10
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, July 17, 2010 - 08:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

I have been taught my very limited musical skills by an amazing teacher...it's all down to him!

Your Market Wrap was one of your best. Keeping all three main EW scenarios in detailed consideration ensures a broader view of coming events. The complexity of the analysis was first rate.

Black Friday was pretty dirty on the Street. The SPX took out the 20 day, 50 day, and 50 week moving averages, leaving none of the more popular MA's as support, as well as breaking the bullish channel/trend line, and the short-term bullish Fib fans, and as bad as that sounds, the Russell even sold-off harder, down 3.82% and has retraced its rally by a whooping 61% as the SPX has only managed to have slightly more then a 38% retracement.

My bear ETF's (TZA, BGZ, FAZ) have gained 17% in a matter of 48 hours!

I expect the SPX to hit 1010 next week, before a rally back to 1050/60. I fear we are in for a larger decline after that.

The plan is to sell the bears c1010, buy TNA Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares for the ride north, and then back into the bears if we look like a further drop.

Thanks again for the MW - better than the Weekend Papers!

bill


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5254
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 12:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eugenio: selling off

I feel you have done the right thing, and that for the most part the signs for the immediate future are very negative indeed.

The following piece, written by Alan Kohler today (Saturday) for readers of The Eureka Report, seems to me very much to the point as an explanation of what overall climate we are now operating in, or at least confronted by. It is such, I feel, as to make bullish forecasts implausible.

I am glad I did get out of gold, too, the point being that that is more worth having during a period of inflation than deflation, although to an extent (in certain areas) there will also be inflation. The US dollar is actually likely to be a good deal more attractive, with Americans and others pulling out of equities and keeping the money thus acquired liquid or investing it in cash, bumping up the USD either way. I have limited time for posting my own thoughts further, at the moment, but here is Kohler:
---------------------------------
About last night
Dow Jones, down 2.5%
S&P 500, down 2.9%
Nasdaq, down 3.1%
Europe, down 2.1%
Gold down $US20


US doom and gloom

It’s all doom and gloom in the US this morning because of yesterday’s Federal Reserve minutes, and then last night we saw consumer sentiment and CPI data confirm the alarming pessimism of the Fed minutes.

The stockmarket has fallen heavily, having its worst day for weeks. The June consumer price index fell 0.1%. Worst of all, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell 9.5 points, to 66, between June and early July – an astonishing fall.

Yesterday, the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting cited “significant downside risks to the outlook for real activity”, adding: “inflation expectations could begin to decline in response to low actual inflation. A few participants cited some risk of deflation.”

Then came the killer blow: the minutes said “most participants” expected it would take some time for the economy to converge fully to its longer-run path of sustainable rates of output growth, unemployment and inflation; “most expected the convergence process to take no more than five or six years”.

Five or six years??? The reaction to this on Wall Street was generally along the lines of: “Aaarrrgggh!”

Gabriel Stein of Lombard Street Research in London said: “The Fed is throwing in the towel. They are preparing to start QE [money printing] again. This was predictable because … money supply has been contracting for months.”

I showed a graph of money supply in the US and Europe on the ABC News earlier this week and compared it with a graph of Japanese money supply after the 1990 crash (money supply in Japan collapsed and did not recover for a decade).

In the US and Europe money supply held up in 2009 because of all the monetary and fiscal stimulus after the 2008 crash, which Japan didn’t do, but it has collapsed now. Also, deflation didn’t start in Japan until 1994.

The basic problem is the lack of global aggregate demand, which is being reinforced by a bank credit squeeze. The disastrous slump in US consumer confidence in July, reported this morning, adds further to the picture of shrinking demand.

Falling demand equals weak output growth, lower prices and persistently high unemployment, which in turn leads to falling demand and a vicious cycle. This morning’s CPI of minus 0.1% seemed to confirm this risk of deflation.

For a while now I’ve been having trouble seeing how this ends – where is the demand going to come from? For the past two or three decades demand has been sustained by asset and credit bubbles, which have now come to an end because governments and households are bloated with too much debt and asset prices – both housing and shares – are down by a third.

Paul Krugman has been calling for another big jolt of fiscal stimulus. Nouriel Roubini recently wrote that governments need to “finish the rescue job to avert disaster”. But I don’t think they can. Yes, they can print more money, but no one wants to circulate it. That’s why the Fed is now talking about five or six years.
------------------------------------------------
As you and I will know I respect Roubini greatly as a forecaster, but I not only disagree with the notion that it would be good for the US to be helped with more of a "rescue" effort, but also agree with Kohler that the effort would this time likely enough be ineffective.

It would in fact probably have been much better to avoid much of the stimulation which has occurred: it disguises the truth, and creates further inflation, which then eventually has to deflate. Such is the situation we are largely in now. A more painful period without much stimulus might actually ultimately have been more helpful.

Anyway, it is pretty obvious that on the whole the place to be is cash, in one form or another, and that assets are not useful to pursue. Sure, there will be the odd bounce here and there, but for the most part the average mortal who mainly goes long cannot expect much from the share market for quite some time, I feel. Gradually more and more of the financial/economic truth will reach more and more people, and fewer and fewer of them will seek the share markets as places to make money, except for a small band of skilled traders.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5255
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 12:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



American dollar

I should really modify what I said about this, to the extent that it is not the case that the US$ is rising against everything else. In fact it has been weakening against the euro. That, however, came from a very low place; and, also, it is logical that to a degree the American dollar itself should serve as an indicator of a weakening American economy. Even so, to my mind it is far more likely that the AUD will continue to fall against the USD than the opposite, as this is not a time for commodities, and hence not for the AUD. Also, I do think that in essence the USD will continue to be the currency of last resort, as the euro really is not "good" enough to take that place, and others haven't got anything like the scope required for a reserve currency.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3637
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 09:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Thanks mate. Well done on your trades.

I tend to agree with you about the weeks ahead. The only minor modification I would make based on Randall's planetary lines is that the interim bottom for the SPX will probably be around the 1020 level than 1010. But hey, what's 1% between friends.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3638
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 09:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

Regarding your GOLD sales recently. Whilst I can understand why you did that based on recent falls, I will be getting ready to re-enter ETF GOLD in the next week or two. As Bill rightly pointed out the falling AUD will ensure limited downside to the ETF and the POG is getting set for its next move up in my view.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5256
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 10:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy, - Gold/ETF GOLD

I don't think we are in as much disagreement about this as you might think. I continue to have an interest in gold, but exited as I think it is being sold off in favour of various kinds of interest securities. People realise they must get themselves more cash, and more income, as equities and property markets have become more dangerous places to be. During this sell-off period I don't think gold will be a primary interest, and will suffer along with other things that might be sold for cash. Of course, as currencies themselves also are vulnerable, ultimately there is definitely a place for gold, but at this stage the all-consuming conversion will, I think, not be towards gold but towards cash, and especially mechanisms that will produce a pretty-much-guaranteed income, such as deposits.

What Bill said is something I am in fact largely in agreement with. He wrote the following:

"Ody, it was of interest that your sold out of your remaining ETF Gold. I am still holding a bundle. I am beginning to worry that if this major correction continues there may be a sell off of everything, including gold, back into US Bonds. It makes little sense considering the mess that the US is in? But the 'deflation' trade in the last 24 hours on POG might be a sign of things to come. If POG breaks us$1180, I think I will be following you. However if the markets pull back 20-30%, the $AUD should retreat <70cents, which will offset any POG decline."

I share his worry (though in his case that was/is only incipient) "that if this major correction continues there may be a sell off of everything, including gold, back into US Bonds", to which however I add that bonds will not be the only cash instrument. Certainly here in Australia, because of the yield on cash, deposits will be in huge demand, and the banks are keeping interest rates up as they scramble to get themselves money. Thus the RBA should not be seen as the only source of interest rate rises: the banks play a central part. I think that, therefore, most Australian investors will in the short term be more interested in bank deposits than gold. They will need those deposits the more because, if they sell e.g. bank shares, as (to an extent) I think they will do, they will no longer get income out of those.

Many investors in this country have to my mind had a naive faith in the ongoing merit of having shares, properties, and indeed gold, rather than cash - especially cash as a yield-producing investment; there have for some time been signs that this extraordinary and onesided love of "growth investments" has been changing, but I think the pace of that change is now accelerating. It is perfectly possible that, living in Australia, many will not - at least not initially - be greatly bothered by a decline in the value of the AUD so long as they get a good yield on their money.

I do not imply, by the way, that I see people as getting out of shares and properties altogether: probably it will be more a matter of a shift in emphasis. So I am not necessarily expecting a quick fall of 20-30% in the value of equities either, below the current kind of level.

Gold does, I admit, of course provide longer-term and "ultimate" security of a substantial kind. So that is indeed an argument in favour of gold, and my hope is that it will make good sense to re-enter. I shall therefore be watching the various price levels keenly. At this stage I favour cash over anything, even "at call", but I may very well return to gold fairly soon. I am as yet undecided about that.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
eblode
Member
Username: eblode

Post Number: 1424
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 11:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody/Rudy,
The only ray of a revival of an optimistic market is if Abbott is elected.
His election will do away with the controversial resource tax and bring in a new sweep of hope for real profits in the resource sector. This will have a rippling effect over the entire economy and will generate a positive sentiment to those investors just sitting on the sideline biting their nails. Until that happens I will join those investors on the side line......biting my nails.

Eugenio


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ody
Member
Username: ody

Post Number: 5257
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 02:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eugenio: the share market and the election

I partly agree with you, Eugenio, but only partly. My main point of disagreement is that I believe that under present conditions, even if Abbott were PM, our share market probably just could not go up impressively anyway, given the general financial/economic/investment climate globally. However, were I do agree is that most business-minded people have no confidence in Labor, including Julia Gillard, as capable of managing the economy with any degree of competence. Hence investment and business confidence are bound to suffer for as long as people feel Labor will be re-elected.

The only point that gets pointed at again and again as supposedly a strong one, economically, for this government is that "we managed the avoid a recesssion as a result of Labor's stimulus packages". To my mind even that point is a very weak one, as our economy was already one of the strongest ones in the OECD when Labor decided to pump money into it on a colossal scale, and shortly after, if I remember correctly, it became THE strongest one but also the one most heavily stimulated. (I may be SLIGHTLY wrong here, but if I am the degree of the error is trivial.) The amount of stimulus was, as the Coalition pointed out at the time, grossly exaggerated in terms of supposed need, and it has continued to be a highly distortive factor in our economy, where people cannot make out just how that would perform without the stimulus factor, where much activity is clearly artificial and temporary, and where the government has created an enormous debt. As well, much of the money has been wasted on entirely unnecessary and/or mismanaged schemes, creating also at best only ad hoc jobs not destined to last. So I would not credit Labor with much even on this score: a small amount of stimulus was perhaps useful, though possibly it should have been administered later.

In general, as we well know, this government has economically been an incompetent one: I find it hard to think of another one as bad during my own interest in politics and economic matters over a period of more than 50 years, living in as many as four different countries. And I see not the slightest evidence that Gillard has any significant understanding of economic issues.

The Coalition would not be able to be as effective an economic manager as it was under Howard and Costello, but personally I have no doubt whatever that its competence in this respect would still vastly outstrip that of Labor.

The trouble with the Australian electorate, however, is that the floating voters who in effect decide the outcome are usually not particularly well-informed, and there is, moreover, an anti-Abbott element observable which is not just based on Gillard being a woman, but one to do with Abbott's past, and an ignorant appraisal of what he would do in office. People's fears are that he would introduce all sorts of matters on the basis of his faith. As far as I can see he is far too astute a politician for this, and in any case he could not possibly succeed in the objectives people fear he would pursue, but this kind of fear appears to be very real, and he may well have too much difficulty, in shaking it off, for him to be elected.

If he DID get elected, I agree with you that we would see some improvement in investment morale; and conversely, if he does not, then I think that under Gillard that morale will definitely deteriorate - the more time people will have to observe her, the less confidence they will have in her economic ability, and, for that matter, her ideology. That, of course, is a reason why she urgently wants to be elected.

As investors, we must hope that enough people will realise her inability to manage the economy, and see through the fact that she is "pulling a swiftie". I think it is not IMPOSSIBLE that that will happen, but I fear that it will not, and if I were at this stage to form any investment plans (or to the extent that I am doing just that) my money is at present on a Gillard victory, though probably a narrow one. I am encouraged by the fact that the Galaxy poll gave Labor late on Friday only 39% of the primary votes, and that Gillard's method of knifing Rudd is widely disliked: but the preferences will more likely than not go her way. In the end, it is the various marginals - or indeed any seats capable of changing - that will decide the outcome, rather than the size of a swing, per se, against Labor. Given the complexity of the issues, with voters in different seats having very different attitudes, the outcome has to be seen as at least technically uncertain, even though probably an election tomorrow would see Gillard scrape home. She has a "personal" factor going for her which I can analyse and understand in others, though I do not at all share it.







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3643
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 03:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

For those keeping a printed record of my EWW course notes, I have just added a part 3 to that series on the EWW thread.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
Other Threads  
Last PosterPostsPagesLast Post
Our Daily Bread » Archive through October 30, 2010baysider50 30-Oct-10  01:07 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through October 22, 2010ody50 22-Oct-10  11:23 am
Our Daily Bread » Archive through October 09, 2010ody50 09-Oct-10  12:23 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through September 30, 2010bridog50 30-Sep-10  02:08 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through September 24, 2010billt50 24-Sep-10  06:25 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through September 17, 2010ehmu50 17-Sep-10  12:20 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through September 13, 2010paint50 13-Sep-10  03:52 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through September 07, 2010p3t350 07-Sep-10  07:38 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through August 27, 2010ody50 27-Aug-10  07:18 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through August 20, 2010ody50 20-Aug-10  12:56 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through August 13, 2010ody50 13-Aug-10  01:34 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through August 09, 2010billt50 09-Aug-10  05:47 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through July 30, 2010ody50 30-Jul-10  11:47 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through July 13, 2010eblode50 13-Jul-10  09:36 am

Threads by Last Post Time:

First Previous 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 00 01 02 Next Last

Administration Administration   Log Out Log Out    

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»