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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through July 31, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through July 31, 2010

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starboard_tack
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Username: starboard_tack

Post Number: 395
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 10:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MastersL46

To save Rudy some time, here is a copy of some notes Rudy previously wrote on how to produce the charts.

"Now the process that I use to get my end results for publishing is that I call up a chart. I then do a screen print by pressing the ‘Shift’ and ’Print Screen’ keys at the same time. This puts a copy of the screen onto the clipboard. I then open ‘Paint’ and ‘paste’ the stuff from the clipboard into that program.
Once that is done I use ‘rectangular dotted box’ symbol on the LHS of the page to extract/select the part of the screen print that I am interested in (eg, the chart of interest) and then I do a file-copy. I then select ‘File’, option ‘New’. It asks you if you want to ‘save changes to file untitled’. Respond NO and you will end up with a clean screen. You then select ‘Edit’, option ‘Paste’ and you will end up with your desired chart on the palette. Resize the chart so that it completely fills the palette in the usual Microsoft way.
What I do then is select ‘Edit’ option ‘Copy’. I usually then open up Power Point and paste the copied chart into that program. I then use Power Point to draw my lines and text modifications to the chart. Once complete I then use ‘Edit’ option ‘Select All’. Then I use ‘Edit’ option ‘Copy’ to make a copy of the completed masterpiece. Then I open up Paint again and use ‘Edit’ option ‘Paste’ to transfer the masterpiece into Paint. I then use ‘File’ option ‘Save As’ and save the file as a jpg file.
End of Story."


You can skip the Power Point part by just using the Paint draw tools if your notes are not too complex.

Hope this helps.

Starb'd


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

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rdumas
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Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3671
Registered: 11-2006

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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 10:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi starboard_tack,

Thanks for doing that for me. I had lost my original notes but when I have some time I will create a power point with detailed instructions. It is a few hours work though and I won't be able to do it in the short term.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Post Number: 3672
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 10:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible EW Count for Scenarios 1 & 2 for S&P500


Hi Folks,

Investors/traders are obviously getting caught up in the current market bullishness. Following are the possible EW counts for the S&P500 relating to scenarios 1 and 2 previously mentioned for the XJO in my earlier posts. As suggested in these charts, the SPX is currently forming Minute wave circle ii.

Note that this wave cannot move higher than 1131.23 for the count to remain valid. If it did go higher that this level then the overall wave pattern from the 25th May would be forming Minor wave 2 and the previously labeled Minor wave 2 would become Minute wave circle a.

First the higher level counts.





And the chart below drills down into the lower level counts.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 10:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Cat Lady,
I see our old friend GXY is starting to head north. I won't be buying it as I don't believe lightening strikes twice in the same place. However I do have DCG which I believe will give me quite a ride north. I see the present market as the beginning of a bull market and have all my $$$$$$ invested for the move north.
Great days ahead! Hope the "girlie boys" will join me.

Eugenio


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rdumas
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Post Number: 3673
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 02:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Chart Enhancement Procedures

Hi folks,

I have prepared a 4 page pdf file explaining how to get IC charts and any 3rd party charting software charts into Paint for modifications. Even though there are only 4 pages, there are quite a few charts in the document and hence the file size is 957 Kbyte in size. For that reason I can't post it in IC.

For those who may wish to have it just send me a private email and I will send it to you via the normal email service.

Lee, I will send it to you directly.

Cheers


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Post Number: 3674
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 03:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



3rd leg of XJO turns on an exact Fibonacci level

You've just got to love those Fib levels.

The 3rd leg of the current rally in the XJO has just turned right on the 61.8% Fib level of the range of the 1st leg.




Now what will be interesting is whether 3 legs will be the extent of the current rally. If that were to be the case then scenarios 1 and 2 would be in play and Andrew's Triangle scenario would be in play for scenario 3.

You may recall that in scenarios 1 and 2, Minute wave circle ii was to be a corrective wave (with the greatest probability being that it would be a 3 wave move). The only other 3 wave move under scenario 3 would be a Triangle pattern where the current rally was Minute wave circle c (shown on Andrew's chart as a plain c).

If the price action added another 2 waves to the rally pattern (a 4th and 5th wave) then we would have the completing impulse leg for our original scenario 3 pattern for Minor wave B.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Post Number: 419
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy and others,

Been waaay too busy for my liking and haven't had the chance to put much into this thread;

Latest from EW;

If the rise from the July 1-2 lows — 9614.30 in the DJIA and 1010.91 in the S&P — is Minute wave ii (circle), the rally should be ending now. The Dow made a new closing high for the rally, ending the day at 10,525.40, which eclipses the close on June 18 at 10,450.60. But the index has yet to make a new intraday high, which was 10,594.20 on June 21. The S&P, so far, remains beneath both its closing high of 1117.51 on June 18 and its 1131.23 intraday high of June 21. If both indexes turn lower now, this non-confirmation will remain intact. Today was the sixth up close out of the past seven sessions (and 12 out of the past 16 days), yet as the charts above show, upside momentum is lagging. Wave (c) sports a lesser 2-and 4-day rate of change relative to wave (a) and within wave c (circle) and NYSE Ticks have so far failed to confirm today's rise relative to Friday's rally (the red line on the Ticks chart is a 10-day moving average). And today's NYSE daily volume of 1 billion shares traded was the slowest day since last Monday's 945 million shares traded. A loss of upside momentum does not confirm a stock market high, but a stock market high almost always occurs with waning upside momentum. So what we can say is that the momentum conditions are present that usually attend with at least a near term reversal.

The other potential that we've discussed is that Minor wave 2 may still be unfolding. There is enough variability in the subwaves so that the Dow may be labeled as a five-wave rise from the July 2 low without violating any of Elliott's rules, but the other wave interpretations satisfy slightly more guidelines than this particular one. None of the short-term wave structures are "ideal" at the moment, but this is the reality of market forecasting when uncertainties arise based on imperfect wave development. Elliott wave analysis entails bringing to bear our experience when applying the rules and guidelines of wave formation and ranking the probabilities for each count (see Dealing with Interpretive Options and Uncertainties: Lessons for Practitioners in the August 2009 EWT). Under this alternate view, the index will push above 10,594.20, the June 21 intraday high, as wave c (circle) of 2 finishes its subdivisions. This push could take another week, maybe even two to complete, depending if the final up waves within c (circle) decided to further subdivide.

A significant turn lower tomorrow, one that retraces most if not all of the 100 point Dow rise today, will be an initial indication that wave ii (circle) is complete. As always, the pattern of the decline and the strength of selling pressure will help to determine the future course of probabilities. If the June 21 highs are exceeded — 10,594.20 in the DJIA and 1131.23 in the S&P — it would eliminate the wave ii (circle) interpretation and indicate that Minor wave 2 was still unfolding.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Post Number: 3675
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 04:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Your post confirms what I believe EWI's EW count is for the SPX. In my post 3672 I also mentioned that for the XJO if the 4622 level was breached then the complete pattern since the 25th May (which should actually say 21st May) would become a Minor wave 2. EWI are basically saying the same thing for the US indices.

I think that things are going to become very bearish very shortly.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 05:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks very much for your ongoing daily charting efforts Rudy - most welcomed.

Great to get the EWI commentary too MM - thanks for posting the updates.

...eh Rudy - a final prediction on the top - date & level?

What about XJO@4621 to keep the EWI guys happy?


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rdumas
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 05:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Thanks for the feedback. The XJO will have difficulty breaking above the 4500 level and staying above it. Randall's planetary transits have the positive influences on the US and Australian markets starting to diminish from now on and the negative influences starting to be felt. We may have seen the top today but if not then by early next week we should have definitely seen the top to this current rally as the planetary influences are really negative starting Friday.

Don't worry Bill, either we will be getting our top in the next few days or I am going be having scrambled eggs on my face one more time. How is that for sticking one's neck out.

I have always stated that the 'timing' aspect of technical analysis is the most difficult.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 01:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi everybody!!
Thank you so much for all your assistance & support in helping me with this chart dilemma, especially starboard tack & rudy. Been mucking around with Paint but have to work tomorrow so will try to post a chart or 2 tomorrow evening.
Heres a prediction, S & P = 1125 - 1130 by just before close on 29/7 or during start of trading on 30/7!!
ASX 200 = 4572 by close of Friday 30/7!!
Don't hold me to it , just a guess but certain trendlines are intersecting at these points on these dates.
Mentioned to Rudy that I met a man that gave me some specific dates for turning points throughout the year.
I have Aug 2 for ASX 200 & July 29/30 for S & P 500 as potential turning points.
So Rudy if one of your gurus also said the 2nd August then that must be an important date. With the turning points, they usually occur the day before for the S & P 500 & on the close, the trading day before for ASX 200. Thats why I have those predictions as they are.
S & P 500 just finished 3rd tonight so 4th & 5th to go!!
Will show everyone when I learn to post these charts.
Rudy - Hey masterclass sounds like a good nickname!! You can call me that if you like!! You can even call me Master ass if these turning points are correct!!
Many thanks once again.


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rdumas
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 07:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good one Lee. I look forward to your first posted chart.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 08:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

SPX set up a Doji Reversal overnight, with a mini Triangular pattern closing the days trade. Does that pattern reflect a wave iv or the top?

Following your earlier post on Randall's 'planetary transits', I have educated myself on the planets! Is Randall's concern based upon the unusual multiple 'Cardinal Cross' events which begin on Friday?

Jul.30 – Mars opposite Uranus*
Jul.31 – Mars conjunct Saturn*
Aug.01 – Mercury enters Retrograde Shadow
Aug.03 – Jupiter* square Pluto (2nd pass)
Aug.04 – Mars opposite Jupiter*
Aug.04 – Mars square Pluto*

I assume 'killjoy' Saturn is Randall's main issue?

Bill


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rash
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 09:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Bill,

The short answer to your question is ... Yes.

More specifically, my concern is related to what financial astrologers refer to as the Mars-Uranus crash cycle. There is a tendency over many decades for markets to bottom when Mars conjuncts Uranus (ie is in the same degree of the same sign).

Markets tend to top when the opposition occurs. The "crash" cycle works only if other astrological indicators create an overall climate for that to occur.

In the coming days, Mars will "trigger" the very negative Cardinal Square formation involving Jupiter/Uranus opposite Saturn and square to Pluto. Cardinal signs simply "action".

I don't wish to delve further into the topic here. This thread was established by Rudy specifically to deal with the practice of EW theory and real-time application.

If there is sufficient interest in the topic of astrological aspects and their impact on markets and cycles, I will discuss with Rudy whether it should be dealt with in a separate thread.

Hope the above helps - RA}


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rdumas
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 10:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

First of all thanks Rash (aka Randall) for responding to Bill's question. I know that Rash is a bit reluctant to go public with his Astro charting stuff because of the obvious bias that some readers may have about the perceived 'tea leaf' reading quality of the methodology however my experience with Randall's stuff is that it works brilliantly and with great accuracy.

It wasn't all that long ago that I too was accused of being a 'tea leaf' reader when using EW analysis. I think that I have now proven that the methodology is sound and based on personal experience I am equally convinced of the soundness of Randall's methodology. Randall's methodology uses charts that have planetary lines on them which clearly shows the influence that they have on the price action of the stock/index being analysed. Refer to the chart below which shows the effect of Mars on the S&P500. Note how it can be clearly seen how this planet provides both support and resistance to this index.




I think that Randall's work would be greatly appreciated by those with open minds and wanting to expand their trading horizons. If there are interested people please let me know either on this thread or by private email and we'll go by the interest shown. I think that as Randall would probably only wish to post occasionally we could start off on this thread as I do use his charts as a key element in determining possible EW counts.

As for your question about the current price action for the SPX Bill. The answer is that it could be either as the chart below for scenario's 1 and 2 shows.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 11:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG

Hi Bill,

I wonder if we saw a 5th wave on the POG? If so we could see a move down to somewhere within the price range of the 4th wave which has a low of $1044.20.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 11:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Since Rudy thinks we could include an occasional astrological chart here without unduly disrupting the serious study of EW, I will attempt to upload a couple of charts of Auntie, my pet name for the ASX200.

Rudy and I have been collaborating closely for several months, along with Andrew and Barry, to pool our knowledge and different skill sets.

Planetary price lines indicate price targets that are very likely to be met. They are the "destination". However, it is EW that I have found, by studying with Rudy, that describes the "route" an index will take to reach its destination.

By study and experiment, I believe that over long periods, Auntie responds most closely to Neptune planetary price line targets.

a


However, under closer examination, I also found Auntie also responds to both Uranus and Saturn price lines during intermediate-term moves.

The following chart is a close-up view of Auntie's weekly price bars and how they meet Resistance and Support at these specific planetary levels - and, hence, the current difficulty she's meeting in the price area around 4500.

b


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billt
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 11:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy & Randall

Fantastic posts.

My own view Rudy is that I feel that this thread could be expanded to include all the 'Musketeers Methodologies'.

For those that think that this may be 'tea leaf' reading - well that's fine, they don't need to read it! For those that are reading this and feel that I may have those tendencies - let me say that I have never read a horoscope in all my life! What I find fascinating is to be open to the Methodology - and embrace it for what it gives. There are billions of people who read their horoscopes daily - so for those like me who have never had any prior interest, just stop and think what influence that this Methodology has on the lives of those people AND on their investment decisions. If a 'Mars-Uranus crash cycle' is about to effect millions of 'investors who read horoscopes', isn't that the information any trader might like to know!

The chart that Rudy posted on 3678 was fascinating. I do hope Randall you will post more.

bill


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eagle
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 12:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm more or less with you Bill re having Randall's charts though I don't think I'd want them to swamp the EW theme (and I don't think that's being suggested by anyone). I'm trying to learn EW in my spare time and on returning from holidays I'm happy that Rudy set up this EWW thread as it makes it easier to follow the 'lessons'. I wouldn't want the astrological charts to distract from that but as an support to Rudy's weekly updates etc I think they are good.

If the astrological input goes on the EWW thread for now, we can see if interest develops to the point where a separate thread is required so that we can learn about it properly.


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starboard_tack
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 12:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy and Randall,

I agree with Bill's post 31. I would also like to say a big thank you to Randall (and the other musketeers) for all the input that comes through Rudy's Market Wraps.

As a scientist, I continually get annoyed by the "tea leaf" antagonists. We continually hear things like "Thats not scientific" used as reasons for dismissing ideas. What the antagonists don't get is that science is all about OBSERVING something, and then proposing theories as to WHY it happens. These theories are then refined as knowledge increases. (Not unlike EW scenarios being refined as wave counts progress). Where would the world be if science had not been open to ALL ideas?

I will get off my soap box now before I get really carried away!

Keep it up Rudy, Randall, and the other musketeers.
Starb'd


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

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ody
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 12:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill, Starboard etc - EW, astrology, etc

I cannot really keep up with all the posts here, I must admit, but I do glance through them. I would agree with you, Bill, that the "astrological" approach cannot readily be ignored for the reason that you mention. That is, I personally very much doubt that the stars or planets have a deep influence on human affairs or on how the share market behaves, and would need very potent observations (to use Starboard's appropriate language) to persuade me that they do. However: horoscopes and astrology are a preoccupation with a great many people, and it would be very odd if that preoccupation did not feed into their attitude to markets. Similarly, I am not really convinced that we feel in our blood/bones/guts/subconscious or whatever that a particularly Fibonacci number has been arrived at and that therefore we move - as in a dream - into a different direction on the share market.

What I can say with certainty, though, is that the market DOES act on Fibonacci numbers, and the reason for this happening, I believe, is nothing mysterious or to do with deepseated psychology, but market observers KNOWING that Fibonacci numbers represent potential turning points, so that the belief in the significance of such numbers turns into a tangible reality with great frequency. Even during the last year or so I have noticed that more and more analysts, and in many countries, mention Fibonacci numbers in this way and base forecasts on them. So, whatever one might think about the intrinsic importance of those numbers, it would be stupid to ignore them in a view of what is likely to happen. Prophecies can, and do, become self-fulfilling. That, to me, is the bottom-line.

I am even prepared to go further and to state that I think it is POSSIBLE that we are unconsciously guided by Fibonacci numbers, but whether we are or not pales into insignificance when we observe that markets clearly pay CONSCIOUS attention to them. I do not know enough about any correlation of markets with horoscopes and the movements of heavenly bodies, but it would seem to me a priori likely that there would certainly be people - possibly many - whose actions are influenced by such factors.

So, as starboard stresses, it would fundamentally be unscientific to close one's mind to matters: ultimately the evidence, one way or another, is what counts, and not what might be anyone's theory as to what is likely or unlikely.

I add to this, though, that none of these various approaches have to my mind - and in my observations since 1983 - a convincing track record of getting things right. As Rudy very commendably points out quite regularly, at many times more than one possible path lies before us: what any methodology can only do is to try to map out the various possibilities in a way that is truly helpful to know about. No forecaster, however, can tell the future with absolute conviction, and the trouble with people like Prechter seems to me that he is far too confident about his own readings as the only correct ones. Hence he is at times very right, and at others very wrong. With Rudy this problem does not arise, as he is far more willing to consider various alternatives. To my mind that is a very justifiable endeavour, and so long as e.g. astrologists have the same openmindedness, I have no desire whatever to discourage them.

As I still regard Our Daily Bread as the thread to which I am "bound", I shall double-post this statement there. I hope this won't be minded.


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gdd3
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 01:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy, Rash...

You could start a 'sub-thread' for "Astro-Analysis" under this(EWW) thread similar to 'my?' TAZ Thread for "TAZ Roadmap".

Thanks, RASH, for coming onboard and I for one will enjoy re-surrecting my B.G's Wave Trader Knowledge(Geometry in the Markets with its mix/interpretation of EWT and AstroAnalysis...for the benefit of other readers who don't know).

Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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Hi Folks,

I've been out to a 'long lunch' with some old work mates and am delighted that Randall posted and that you folks gave him such a warm welcome.

As Randall said we have been collaborating for months now and Randall's charts have always given very clear potential bounce levels (both up and down) at exact levels. Couple this with work that Andrew and Barry do gives us a very good combination of methodologies that allow for some pretty accurate analysis.

We will monitor the thread to see if there is a lot of interest in Randall's Astro charts and if we feel that either methodology is suffering from the 'mixing bowl' effect we will simply split the thread as suggested by Dolphin. I find both methodologies extremely powerful. Unlike personal astrological forecasts where these can be ready in a myriad of different ways, Randall's Astro charts (my terminology) are completely unambiguous in terms of showing strong planetary support and resistance levels. Levels that have been proven to be extremely accurate since Randall came into my life.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

On the daily chart it looks like the current rally from the 6th July will be a Zigzag for Minute wave circle ii and the current leg is Minuette wave (c). This would be an impulse wave and we appear to be in the 3rd leg of this impulse wave. A possible target for the final 5th leg could be that overhead yellow descending trend line or lower.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010 - 04:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



EW Counts for the US Markets

If we just focus on the scenarios 1 and 2 EW counts for the US indices we will notice that they are in similar wave patterns. What we can see however is that the DOW is getting very close to the point where its current EW count will be invalidated if it goes up just a little bit more.

If it does then the current labelling becomes invalid as Minute wave circle ii cannot go above the termination of Minor wave 2.

Both the S&P500 and Nasdaq indices still have room to move.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Thanks for the welcome and can I say to Eagle that I agree entirely EWW has a specific mission and I believe the thread should not be cluttered by off-topic material.

Starboard Tack and Dolphin ... I've read both of you with considerable interest over time and look forward to further conversations, wherever they take place.

Bill ... I'd like to stress that it is my interpretation of the current planetary transits which leads me to lean towards an unexpected "black swan" event having an impact.

However, I have discussed privately with the 4M my concern at the level of positive divergence shown on all oscillators on weekly charts of various indices, including the ASX200 and SP500.

So, while I would not be shocked/surprised by a surprise/shock world event that impacts on financial markets over the next week or so, I am not betting the farm on it ... simply because most of Life is "normal", not abnormal, and technical indicators are giving distinct signals of a multi-week rally being underway.

I am not married to a "fated" outcome here. Whichever transpires - breakout or breakdown - will be a strong move and because of the Uranus element, normal lines of Support and Resistance will not hold.

The ASX200 chart shows price target zones for strong moves.
I have a similar chart for the SP500, but I'm having trouble getting it to load - even though it's within the specified size range. I'll try it again later.

Warm regards - RA


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billt
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hi Randall

Thanks for the explanation within your post 4.

In respect to your 'Astro charts', could you briefly explain how you compile your charts?

I assume the coloured 'waves' a track of the planetary motion? I can't make out the key on the top left corner of the charts - I assume the planetary information is a computer generated chart?

How do you overlay that information onto 'Aunties' price levels? How do you relate the Astro info' to the price y-axis?

How regularly do 'Mars-Uranus crash cycles' occur? I read that 1929 was one such occasion!

When you have time, an introductory 'Idiots Guide to the Galaxy of Astro Charts' would be very beneficial - I'm a 'newbie', so I ask the 'uninformed' questions on behalf of all silent 'newbies'!! ..... a bit like 'major tom to ground control'....

thanks Randall

Bill


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market_mad
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Thursday, July 29, 2010 - 09:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

Looks to me like the ASX200 is in the middle of an ABC move up to the 4612 area. It does however like like a iv wave pullback to the 4450 area will possibly happen today before its final push up to the 4600 area.

As long as the market stays below 4655 then I reckon we are heading down to 3800 by September. If we do close above 4655 then that will be bullish and we will be up to 5100. In other words - we are in a very critical area on our market technically.

Latest EW;

The top wave interpretations consider the rally from the July 1-2 lows part of an upward correction that will be completely retraced in the next leg down of the ongoing bear market. Short term, the stock market is either turning down now or will do so in a meaningful manner after posting a new recovery high above yesterday's high.
So far, the S&P's closing high of 1115.01 (Jul. 26) is on the 8th day of the 8-9 day turning pattern, while the index's intraday high of 1120.95 (Jul. 27) is on the 9th day, satisfying both turn dates. The question now is: will the decline currently unfolding be simply a 1-3 day affair, such as that which developed from the previous resolution of the 8-9 day turn window, or will the selloff mark something larger?
There are two ways to interpret the very short-term subdivisions. One way is shown on the above three charts. Here, the Dow has completed a five-wave rally from the wave b (circle) low at 9614.30 on July 2. The index made a new closing high at 10,537.70 yesterday, eclipsing the June 18 close of 10,450.60. While a new intraday high above the June 21 high was not reached, the internal subdivisions of the pattern allow us to consider the entire Minor wave 2 upward correction as complete from the May 25 low. In the end, wave 2 traced out an upward expanded flat. The third chart above updates one that we published Monday night showing the failure of hourly momentum to confirm the wave (v) rise, behavior that is consistent with an important characteristic of a fifth wave in stocks.

This scenario means that the stock market is starting a major decline, one that will erase thousands of points from its current level. The selloff will be labeled Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave 3 (circle) and should draw prices toward the area surrounding 8000 initially (near 850-875 in the S&P).
There is however, another way to interpret the subdivisions that would accommodate another stab at a new recovery high. This push would be the fifth and final wave of Minor wave 2. The above chart details how we would label the pattern. Note how today's decline came down to the lower channel line and bounced right off it, suggesting that the market thinks this line is important. This pattern means that prices will rally above yesterday's 10,578.30 high, which is labeled wave iii on this chart, one more time to complete v of (v) of c (circle) of Minor wave 2. As long as the Dow remains above today's wave iv low at 10,463.20, we must respect this potential.

A break of today's low would also break the lower channel and increase the odds that a final wave 2 high is already in place. A decline beneath the wave i high at 10,265.50 would further increase the odds to very high that the stock market has finally rolled to the downside in a significant decline, leaving behind the June-July upward correction. The next 8-9 day turn pattern occurs August 9 (± 1 trading day).

Cheers
MM


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rash
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Thursday, July 29, 2010 - 11:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello, Bill

I'll consult with Rudy about an appropriate way of responding to your questions. I don't think the EWW thread is it; it's too valuable a resource for anyone wanting to learn about E-Dubya.

We'll either have to open a separate thread, or I can put some material together in a PDF and it can be emailed to anyone who is interested.

Warm regards - RA


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mastersl46
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Thursday, July 29, 2010 - 11:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hooray I hope this works. Not the best first chart , Need to muck around with paint a bit more.
I can understand wave 1 hits wave 4 in first part but I have seen a similar thing happen back in Oct 2008 and was still classified as a 5 wave move. Let me know what you think Rudy.
Also the Wave 3 of wave 5 of wave c looks to be finished on Tuesday with the 4th finishing last night so there is possibly 1 more wave to go before a downward move. The trend line I have in there starting from 5 of 1 or A may be retested one more time & if it fails from there, may signal the possible high of the C wave. Most likely end of tonight or early tomorrow in US trade.
spx count


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mastersl46
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Thursday, July 29, 2010 - 11:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It worked !!!!!!! Wooohoooooooo


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mastersl46
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Thursday, July 29, 2010 - 11:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Heres one for the asx 200
Once again Wave C doesnt look to be finished. May come to 4572 depending on where it will hit the sloping trendline from Wave 4 of 1. May happen on close tomorrow or could be early Monday. Rudy, could you please let me know if this count is possible. Many thanks


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mastersl46
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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 12:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Heres another chart showing possible trendlines. They are not to scale so may not be exact angles but trying to show a general trend. The circle is where the possible turning point could be. asx big


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rdumas
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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 07:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Mastersl46,

Congratulations with your annotation efforts. Well Done. In the last one you forgot to get rid of the name of the background advertising so you need to remember to do that but you've taken a giant step in the ability to annotate charts in a professional manner.



I will comment on the EW component of your charts later today as I have some stuff to do first.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Mastersl46,

Regarding the EW count on your post 13. It is valid to have wave 4 intrude into the price range of wave 1 if and only if the pattern is a leading diagonal. The pattern you have labelled would not comply as an impulse wave but it could be construed as a leading diagonal with a failed 5th wave because the 5th wave did not go beyond wave 3.

An important point in your labelling however is that it does not comply with the Prechter convention of labelling. If the first larger pattern is either Minor wave 1 or Minor wave A as you suggest, then your sub waves have to be Minute waves which have the format of circle i, ii, iii, iv, v etc.

As for the second part of your larger pattern, what you are proposing is an Expanded Flat pattern where the wave b range is larger than the wave a range and the wave c range is larger again. This again is a valid EW count however once again you have mixed up the levels of the labels. If your first larger pattern was Minor wave 1 or Minor wave A then your wave Minute wave a should be labelled circle a and your Minuette wave circle a should be labelled (a).

Sticking to recognised labelling conventions is critical to avoid level confusion and as level confusion is one of the biggest problems in EW analysis I would really focus on that aspect in the early stages of your development.

So in summary, ignoring the labelling problems, the EW count that you suggest is legal but not one that I would go for.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 08:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Lee,

Regarding the EW count shown on your XJO chart the only minor correction that I would make other than the incorrect level labelling is the placement of your label circle a. I would place it on the previous peak as that would make both your wave circle a and circle b 3 wave patterns.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 09:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Looking at the SPX overnight, could we have a 'failed 5th' @1115.90 in play, a completed wave i @1092.82, a wave ii complete @ 1107.60, and wave iii underway?

If so, tonight might be fireworks on the Street! Tonight is the beginning of the multiple astro cardinal events with 'Mars opposite Uranus'.

A 'failed 5th' v a 'crazy wave iv'? Thoughts?

Bill


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rdumas
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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 11:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You could be right but I still favour on more move up before we top out. Therefore I think that we are still in a wave 4 of the final impulse wave to complete the third leg of the rally. Following would be my labeling for scenario 1. Not sure if the 4th wave is complete yet because it would invalidate the count if it fell much further.




Alternately, we may have already seen the top and we had a 3 wave move for the third leg of the pattern and we are in the midst of forming Andrew's Triangle pattern where the current pattern completed wave (c) and waves (d) and (e) are still to come.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 11:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Your count still seems the favorite, however if the SPX drops below 1088.96, then we look to other alternatives like a 'failed 5th', or a count that completes the 5 wave impulse at 1120.95?

The GDP figures tonight might hold the key?

randall's quote: "Whichever transpires - breakout or breakdown - will be a strong move and because of the Uranus element, normal lines of Support and Resistance will not hold"


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rdumas
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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 12:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Agreed Bill. The anticipated fall could have occurred any time on or after the 30th July so we are well and truly in the right time frame.

(Message edited by rdumas on July 30, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 02:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



DOW getting close to a recount

Of the 3 US indices the one that is getting extremely close to a recount is the DOW. At present in scenario 1 (the Prechter scenario) all indices are forming Minute wave circle ii. Unfortunately Minute wave circle ii cannot go above the termination point of Minor wave 2 as it would invalidate that particular count.

So currently the EW count looks like the following chart.





Minor wave 2 terminated at 10,594.16. So far the current wave has reached 10,584.99 so we are within a gnat's dingwhisker of taking out that level. If it does then the wave count would have to be relabelled as follows.

Note that I have not labelled the lower level wave c's to avoid cluttering the charts.




It would be unusual (but not impossible) for the DOW to have to move to the new count and the SPX remain on the old count. To get an idea of how close the other two indices are to this recount possibility refer to the two charts below.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 12:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

You have some numbers to move Rudmeister! SPX just dropped below 1088.96, to 1088.01. Recount needed!

Option 1: a ‘failed 5th' @1115.90;
Option 2: 5 wave completed earlier @ 1120.95
....any others?

Wave Count:
completed wave i @1092.82
completed wave ii @ 1107.38
completed wave iii: in progress - its pretty volatile at midnight!

Alternative Wave Count – beginning 1010.91
A 1099.46
B 1056.88
C 1120.95
D 1088.01
E say 1150?

By the close it might be more obvious.


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billt
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 09:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Interested to get your views?

The corrective pattern on the SPX 15 minute since the high @1120.95 may have evolved initially into a bearish descending triangle until late 28 July when it broke to the downside. The pattern may then have formed into a descending diagonal, which may have broken to the upside in late trade on Friday.

A reverse Head & Shoulders has formed on the SPX 15min over the past 48 hours. (Head @1088, LS @ 1092, RS 1094, Neckline 1107/1106)

An alternative view is that a ‘failed 5th' @1115.90 occurred, and we are now in the initial stages of a significant move down.

Both options are still in play, but a run to 1131 might be the favorite.

Bill


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rdumas
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 09:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I always spend Saturday morning working on my Weekend Market Wrap document so I'll get back to you about your questions later today. The wrap in fact may touch on some of the things you have raised. I try to get the wrap out by 2pm at the latest.

Cheers


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 11:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings, Wave Watchers

I indicated a couple of days ago I'd try to post a chart of the SP500 weekly incorporating the planetary price lines I've found most useful in helping to set targets for intermediate moves.

It fills the same purpose as the ASX200 weekly planets chart. If you check back to that chart, I indicated Auntie would find difficulty breaking above the 4500 zone. The weekly close was at 4493.550.

The negative astrological transits continue in the coming weeks - and Venus will join Mars in setting off the Cardinal Cross involving Jupiter/Uranus opposite Saturn and square Pluto.

1

During intermediate moves, the 500 tends to find strong Support and Resistance at specific bands - around the Moon's Node and Saturn.

The area 6 dollars either side of 1080 is a very strong, long-term level. The 1170 and 990 zones are of moderate strength. The 1080 is the middle-level of two other very strong levels - up at 1260 and down at 900.

The light grey Neptune lines on the chart tend to act as temporary S/R during intermediate-term moves between different Node/Saturn levels.


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rash
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 11:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Because of size constraints, the long-term chart of the 500 won't be terribly clear when it's reproduced here.

However, I hope you'll be able to see enough detail of the orange Node and cyan Saturn lines to trace their relationship with the weekly price moves.

3


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rdumas
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 01:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

All of the move down in the SPX to me looks corrective rather than impulsive. There is just to much overlapping occurring. Couple that with the other technical indicators mentioned in my Market Wrap for the XJO I believe it indicates further upward movement.



(Message edited by rdumas on July 31, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 01:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Early last month Randall sent me a table of transits for the following few months. In it he indicated that really negative transits that would occur towards the end of July and into August. I'm not sure how clear this screen print will come out in this post but as you can see there are two really negative periods. The two negative periods start coming in on the 27th July 2010 up to and including the 4th August and then another period during the period covering the 9th August through to and including the 18th August 2010.





Now you may see from the chart below of the S&P500 that the negativity started on the 27th July as indicated by Randall's transit table.



I would suggest that if we do make it through the current negative period then the next time we'll be hit will be in the period commencing the 9th August.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 06:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy & Rash

Rudy for completeness, considering the SPX looks to you 'corrective rather than impulsive'from 1120.95, I assume then for the SPX count wave three completed @1120.95, and we are currently in four or perhaps already starting five @1088.01. Is that the idea?

Rash, thanks for the SPX charts. In your post 4 you said "Whichever transpires - breakout or breakdown - will be a strong move and because of the Uranus element, normal lines of Support and Resistance will not hold". Considering we are in that 'Uranus element' now, I assume that over-rides your recent note in post 6 "during intermediate moves, the 500 tends to find strong Support and Resistance at specific bands - around the Moon's Node and Saturn". Basically in times of negative astrological transits 'astro support & resistance' bands are somewhat erratic. Have I got that right?

thanks guys for your weekend 'homework'

bill







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rash
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 07:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello, Bill.

No, not quite. "Normal" lines would be Neptune and the lesser Saturn/Node zones. It's why I stressed the "moderate" strength zones, as opposed to the very strong zones.

Let me reduce that long-term weekly Pollyanna chart to monthly bars and planetary lines tied to decisive moves, rather than weekly intermediate moves.

1

If she doesn't go to 1260, she's heading for 900!

 
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