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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through August 09, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Our Daily Bread » Archive through August 09, 2010

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ody
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 12:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Deposit rates likely to rise further: FIIG Securities

I have on the whole found FIIG Securities informative on matters like bank financing, interest rates, hybrids, and deposits.

Today, writing in the Eureka Report, FIIG Securities states:
----------------------------------------------------------
With securitisation markets unable to provide a material amount of funding for the big four, the only meaningful market left is that of term deposits. As a result of the above we believe that a new round of competition for deposits will soon begin. Signs of special rates are already appearing.

Moreover, recent comments from the major banks have indicated that a greater strategic focus will be placed on deposits as a source of funding. Banks used to spend the majority of their print advertising budgets on mortgage rates but this has now switched to deposit rates.

At the retail end, the government guarantee means competition must be conducted via price, or more correctly deposit rates offered. This ratcheting of retail rates then feeds through to the wholesale market where a greater focus is on the name or institution. The following charts demonstrate what happens in times of intense competition.
------------------------------------------------------

Regular readers know that I have for long argued that rates will rise - AND NOT OR AT LEAST NOT ONLY THROUGH THE RBA - and that deposits will benefit because banks will want them.

Going further still, I also think increases in yield in general are unavoidable because of the need for people to repay debt, and an unwillingness on the part of lenders like myself to accept anything other than a good return. Government bonds are on the whole too low, but I expect that banks and other corporations will pay good rates to borrow my money.

However, the present post is concerned specifically with deposit rates.

I wait with baited breath, and have scope to take advantage of high-yielding deposits if they get offered. I would encourage most people to do the same, at least with part of their capital, and especially within a super environment (even if accumulating).


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ody
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 12:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Some important news for our economy

From the Sydney Morning Herald
-----------------------------------------------------

JULIA GILLARD has three weeks in which to salvage her campaign, with the latest Herald/Nielsen poll showing Tony Abbott and the Coalition would be swept to power if the election were held today.

In a stunning reversal of fortunes for the Coalition following a disastrous week for the government, support for both the Prime Minister and Labor has plummeted; the Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

This represents a 6 percentage point two-party swing against the government since the last Herald poll a week ago, and a 4.7 point two-party swing against the government since the last election.

If the result were replicated uniformly in the election on August 21, the Coalition would pick up 28 seats; 11 more than it needs to form government in its own right.

The poll shows Labor's primary vote has gone into freefall, plunging six points in a week to 36 per cent while the Coalition's primary vote rose four points to 45 per cent. The Greens remained steady at 12 per cent.

These numbers are similar to the levels of early June which precipitated the move against Kevin Rudd's leadership.

The 58 per cent to 42 per cent lead that Ms Gillard enjoyed over Mr Abbott among women voters only a week ago has disappeared and the female vote for Labor and the Coalition is now statistically even at 49-51.

Ms Gillard's approval rating slumped five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval rating rose six points to 39 per cent. Mr Abbott's approval rose six points to 49 per cent and his disapproval fell six points to 45 per cent.

Ms Gillard's 21-point lead as preferred prime minister was slashed by 13 points to 49-41. Her rating fell six points and Mr Abbott's rose seven points.

The only good news for the government was that 69 per cent expect it will win the election -

four points lower than a week ago - while only 21 per cent, up five points, are backing the Coalition.

In extraordinary developments yesterday, Cheryl Kernot confirmed she had nominated for the Senate as an independent (see story, page 7) while Kevin Rudd was admitted to hospital to have his gall bladder removed.

But the former prime minister raised hopes among Labor by saying that when released from hospital, he would bury the hatchet and campaign with Ms Gillard across the nation if needed.

Labor desperately needs Mr Rudd's help in the pivotal state of Queensland where it is struggling. The Herald reported yesterday that Mr Rudd had been approached.

''Mr Rudd looks forward to resuming campaign activities next week - both in his own electorate, elsewhere in Queensland and the rest of the country as appropriate - in support of the re-election of the government and Prime Minister Gillard,'' his spokesman said.

Ms Gillard was enthused: ''I've always said I wanted to respect Kevin Rudd's wishes about the campaign.

''Obviously, I would welcome his campaigning efforts.''

The poll of 1356 voters was taken from Tuesday evening night to Thursday night. It encompassed the darkest two days of the campaign so far for the government which were dominated by damaging cabinet leaks against Ms Gillard, for which Mr Rudd was blamed.

Ms Gillard was accused of arguing against pension increases and paid parental leave. She denied both charges but the allegations were damaging. One MP said yesterday voters in his electorate were scared Ms Gillard would cut pensions if re-elected.

Although the samples are small, the poll shows that among voters aged over 55, support for Labor dived from 38 per cent to 31 per cent in a week and jumped from 49 per cent to 57 per cent for the Coalition.

Also since the last poll there have been the leaders' debate, in which Mr Abbott performed better than expected, and Ms Gillard's widely derided announcement of a citizens' assembly to help develop a community consensus on an emissions trading scheme.

The poll finds that 60 per cent still support an emissions trading scheme while only 41 per cent support a citizens' assembly.

It also finds that 79 per cent of voters are unlikely to change their views between now and election day. This is the level recorded at the same stage of the campaign before the 2004 and 2007 elections. It indicates 21 per cent of voters could still be influenced by events of the next three weeks.

(Message edited by ody on July 31, 2010)

(Message edited by ody on July 31, 2010)







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cat_lady
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 06:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody, you're a marvel! great post. once I've had time to digest I'll surely come back with some questions.
cheers
cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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cat_lady
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 06:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



p.s. - I know you're not a fan of the star system, but the five stars was from me!
cheers again
cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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ody
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 12:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks cat lady. I hope you saw there were TWO posts,with th second a continuation of the first? There's 5277 and 5278. I think you do need both of them to make sense of what I say in either. But you've probably noticed that already. If the material is of any use to you I shall feel truly gratified. And I was glad to write it.


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p3t3
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 02:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ody wrote on Friday, July 30, 2010 - 03:17 pm:

However, I have decided to keep about 11% in cash at call (yielding 4.5%)


Ummm, why not 6.01% or 6.51% (using a little extra setting up for the $200/mth savings plan? Major bank backing (NAB) and Govt Guarantee on deposits till Oct 2011.
UBank


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polpak
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 02:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Many voters seem resent failure of politicians amongst themselves to reach agreement on some form -not clear just what form, of reasonable emissions reduction approach, just that need some scheme.



Business concern for start of some green incentive or carbon reduction scheme, expect reviewed after actual effects clearer, to many investment decisions need be made so stop treading water and start moving...




Many seem consider giving their first preference vote to the Greens - unlikely to actually change result, whilst second preferences may divide even between ALP and/or LibNats !


Still difficult for Greens to win extra seats in Senate more so in HoR, to where could force significant changes.


Final policy/legislation changes from some negotiated agreements between ALP and/or LibNats - whichever holds government title.



Volatile campaign, many undecided voters... interesting times ;-)


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ody
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 05:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



p3tr: money in cash

Many thanks for raising your point. I am acutely aware that 11% at 4.5% will not, for any real length of time, be satisfactory, nor necessary, but as yet not sure for how long and at what rate I might move part of it into a deposit or even a savings account. However, it may be that I shall do so quite soon, and it certainly won't take me ages to make up my mind (I might wait just for a bit to see how the possibilities play out).

Certainly a high interest rate yield is what I shall primarily be looking for. I could indeed manage quite well with having, say, just 6% (not 11%) in cash at 4.5%. So thanks for your concern and suggestion. If you know of any PARTICULARLY attractive possibilities, could you please mention them?? I'd be very grateful.


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ody
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 06:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



cat lady: this - from the SMH - may be good news for both of us!
---------------------
Australand sets tone for upbeat season
July 31, 2010

AUSTRALAND Holdings' interim result was given a positive review by property analysts and set the tone for what is forecast to be a more upbeat reporting season than last year.

For the six months ending June 30, Australand reported a net profit, after one-off revaluations, of $60 million, which was in line or marginally ahead of most expectations of analysts.

Merrill Lynch's Simon Garing said it was ahead of his $56 million forecast, driven by lower group costs and interest expense.

Australand said its full-year guidance to December 31 was maintained at $120 million, versus Merrill's forecast of $123 million.

''Australand should provide above-sector growth as it looks to drive its development division's returns on capital employed, from 6 per cent up to 12 per cent, which is equal to long-run averages,'' Mr Garing said.

''Based on current levels of capital, this should drive earnings per security [EPS] up a further 42 per cent over the next two to three years, to 30¢. Our forecasts allow for some execution risk with our 2013 EPS forecast at 28¢. Our five-year EPS growth from 2010-15 is still a very impressive 8.6 per cent per annum.''

Matthew Bertram of Deutsche Bank said commentary from Australand's management indicated that within the commercial and industrial division, inquiry and pre-commitment (of buildings) activity was up from a broad base of industries.

''The non-residential development workload [commercial and industrial] has increased by 177,000 square metres [net] during the half,'' Mr Bertram said.

''Within the residential division, Australand's management noted that the progressive reduction of impaired and low-margin residential inventory should continue in the second half of 2010, reducing from about 30 per cent of sales in 2009 to 10 per cent in 2011. We expect improved return on capital [from a cyclical low of 7.2 per cent in 2009], with growth driven by the commencement of two large new projects in the second half: at Cranbourne, Victoria, and Springfield, Queensland.'' Australand said six additional residential projects were in planning for release next year. It has maintained a target of improvement in the development division return on capital, to 12 per cent by 2012.

Carolyn Cummins


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p3t3
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 07:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ody wrote on Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 05:50 pm:

Certainly a high interest rate yield is what I shall primarily be looking for.


Hello Ody
Seems I've been way too brief in my posts, and assumed way too much.

From the UBank site (link was provided in the previous post - post 19) rates for deposits @ 24hour call, interest calculated daily, paid (and compounded) monthly :
rates100801

Assuming a $100,000 deposit, to get from 6.01% to 6.51% you need to set up a "savings plan", minimum $200 per month. Procedure: Set up UBank USaver account (can be done online); set up (say) NAB eBanking (transactions) account and NAB iSaver (savings, 4.5%) account. Nominate the NAB iSaver account as the linked account to the USaver account. Transfer ($100,000 - $2,400 =) $97,600 into the USaver account. Transfer the $2,400 into the NAB iSaver account. Arrange fully automated transfers from NAB iSaver to NAB eBanking to Usaver of $200 per month to satisfy the savings plan requirement. Get 6.51% at call on the remaining $97,600. Approximate additional interest income (over 4.5% on $100,000) for 12months : $1,960 (ignoring compounding). At the end of 12 months transfer $2,400 back to the NAB iSaver account and repeat for the next year.


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bridog
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 11:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all, the following table sets out the changes to some commodities in Aussie $ terms at the end of July 2010 (current) and the two previous months:



All prices declined over the 2 month period due mainly to changes in value of the AUD. Gold fell over as we all know with silver following suit dropping between 8 and 9% over the two months. While base metals were lower over the 2 month period they rose in July despite an increase in the AUD from US84c to US90c. Copper and zinc were the standout performers up 4.2% and 7.1% respectively in July. This is quite a significant rise.

LME stockpiles are declining for all base metals except zinc which is flatlining.

All in all, it seems to be a time when it is good to be long on base metals miners. Go Mincor, Perilya, Oz, and the rest of you diggers.

The BDI still shows a decline but it appears to be moderating with the last 2 weeks actually picking up.

Summing it up, stuff is being dug up and sold at increasing prices and in greater quantity than it is being mined at the moment. And isn’t this the normal northern summer doldrums?

Damn, its gotta be hard to be a bear.


Old enough to know better . . .

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ody
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 12:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



p3t3: thanks for UBank info
bridog: thanks for info on base metals

p3tr3: Many thanks indeed. I did think that you might have a UBank savings account in mind, as you mentioned the backing of NAB, and I know that some of these accounts - even if used in a simpler form - are currently giving quite high returns. My wife has such an account (for private money) with AMP. I did NOT understand the allusion to $200, but fully get the point now. It's quite a good scheme, though I find the $200 transfer a bit cumbersome, not least for super fund. Certainly, whether I do what you suggest or not, I am inclined to think in this general direction.

bridog: your figures are correct, and if I go to Kitco and check base metal figures there, in USD, again there is no denying that of late there has been an improvement in prices. They are still, however, in general quite a bit lower than in mid April. Also, I am not altogether clear on the Baltic Dry, I must admit, but I do accept that there has been less "risk aversion" of late.

Commodities typically do well when there is such a change in mood. Whether one would indeed go long, though, surely depends not only on your figures - including the diminishing stocks held - but also on what attitude one thinks investors will in general adopt, which in turn depends on what one can find out about their current attitudes (which are at present not positive), and what one thinks both confidence and economies will do within the next few months. In that respect I am not confident that a bearish attitude is not appropriate.

However, one thing one COULD possibly use as a justification for investing in base metal companies RIGHT NOW is the growing possibility that Gillard will lose, in which case the resources tax will not be implemented. Those prepared to bank on that scenario could very well see a significant rise, in the weeks to come, and especially AHEAD of the election, in share prices. At the time of the election people might then sell stocks "on the fact".


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jaded
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 01:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody
On these Interest rate Securities,does the Buy Price have some fluctuation based on Due Date for Interest payment?
ie if interest is to be paid next month,does that cause Price to Rise 'some' in anticipation?

If so,then when/what date is interest paid on the CBA ones?
July1/Oct1/jan1/april 1?

I imagine there would be a price effect because one would get 3 months interest even though you'd only held for a month.

I'm thinking of sticking some Long Term Hold Money into these things when some short term deposits mature.

regards


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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ody
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 03:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jaded: interest rate securities

My answer to your question has to be a bit provisional, as I have no actual record to hand. However, I think it would be true to say that these notes are usually bought for the longer term, as it is ongoing yield that people are after rather than a one-off dividend payment such as they might aim for when "stripping" a bank of that. The prices of interest rate securities do of course get affected somewhat when they turn ex-dividend, but I am pretty sure there is no point in buying them soon before a payment date in the hope that you will see a sudden rise.

Of course, if the dividend is franked, you do get the franking if you buy before the note goes ex. But in general my own strategy (certainly if there is no franking) would be to buy on the day that the note goes ex-dividend, and I must admit that recently I did do so very succesfully in one case where the payment was big and unfranked: I bought an additional portion ex-div, and the note has since gone back fairly easily to its previous level, so this strategy has worked (in this instance).

When it comes to really major swings, I think there are two things I have noticed markedly. First, and negatively, in a period of panic, these notes can go down fiercely. At least one CBA note in 2008, when Armageddon seemed nigh, went down by 40%. My attitude is that that would be an excellent time to buy, and not to sell, as almost certainly a bank like CBA will not collapse and will ultimately pay one the face value or equivalent - or even offer you a better deal by adding a "step-up" to the yield one has been getting. Some people would be unnerved by a 40% fall - but I think for you and me this is no worry, but rather an opportunity. I bought my Macquarie note (a sizeable amount of it at least) when IT was way down as people feared the company might fold. This was, of course, less safe than buying a CBA note. Even so, my action has paid off, for sure. If you are prepared to take some (sensible) risks, there is definite scope, here and there, for a capital gain.

On the other hand, as in a rout several notes would go down, it is probably not unwise to sell one's notes (just like shares) before the rout, and buy back in at a lower level.

So the second swing that can occur is a nice upward swing from a low point. For example, a reason why I suggested PERLS III to cat lady as something to consider is that its yield is not as high as that of PERLS V, but the purchase price, at about $180 (when I wrote), is well below the face value. With the issuer being CBA, that state of affairs does not last, and certainly, as people think further, they buy up the note, and the price goes up as well. Often that will happen particularly, of course, as the maturity date gets close, when people remember that, after all, if the issuer is good, $180 simply is an inaccurate figure.

So, all in all, I think one first has to decide whether the OVERALL climate favours buying these kinds of notes. If one feels that is the case, then probably the safest policy is to go for the banks with a rating of at least A, or AA (CBA, WBC). The time to buy would be when the price is down for a day or so as the stock goes ex-dividend, as after than the price will soon enough "heal" and one is accordingly ahead on that basis. Others which in price are attractive are those which are underrated because people are buying the highest yield (often paying MORE than the face value) while some of the lower-yielding notes get unreasonably priced down: they often not only still produce a good yield (particularly if franked), but, as well, the price of the note is likely to go up.

Finally, if we were to see a real rout in the share market, there is a good chance that several of these notes will be negatively affected, but provide EXCELLENT buying opportunities, because on a low price one gets a proportionately higher yield, and the price will, in the case of first-class issuers, over time almost certainly come back up. If, for example, a CBA or WBC note once again went down by 40%, I'd most certainly buy, for such a purchase to my mind would be very low-risk, with an increase in price pretty well guaranteed, while one is earning a good and franked yield at the same time.

It is important to remember that in some ways these notes behave like shares, so if one can set a substantial amount of money aside, a good deposit would offer a higher level of safety. I personally use notes as an addition (of some importance), but I prefer deposits. And I do manage the notes to the extent that I do buy and sell, as in the case of a share portfolio - but I worry less about capital loss, so long as the issuers are good enough, for even a fall would most probably be only temporary. I still would not advocate a buy-and-hold attitude, but that approach on the whole, in the case of good issuers, would be less risky than running a portfolio of shares, where the falls are often bigger, and where there is far less guarantee of a return to the former (pre-fall) price.


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billt
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 08:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Ody

How did you read the US GDP figures? I attach an article which suggests the US 'economy’s underlying trajectory — increased at an annual rate of only 1.3 per cent'.

Corporate earnings were on the comfortable side, but the real concern is the top line revenue. It is obvious that American Companies have shed their workforce to protect the bottom line, but an economy which has an underlying GDP at such low numbers, is really heading backwards.

Coupled with the enormous underlying debt level at $350k per person - it all makes for continuing 'unusual uncertainty'.

"US GDP: The US economic recovery isn’t showing any real bounce. GDP grew at an annualised 2.4 per cent, but inventory buildup, government spending and a tax-driven housing blip produced most of that. Even with no double-dip downturn currently in sight, growth is too slow to help the unemployed much.

Details of the GDP report suggest economic sluggishness will persist. More than 1 percentage point of growth came from inventory accumulation, which isn’t sustainable once stocks regain a steady-state level. Deficit-financed government spending accounted for another 0.7 percentage points of growth, while 0.6 percentage points came from residential investment, fuelled by a tax break that expired in April.

None of those factors is likely to continue supporting GDP expansion reliably in coming quarters, and precious little growth came from other parts of the economy. Put another way, real final sales — a better indication of the economy’s underlying trajectory — increased at an annual rate of only 1.3 per cent."


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ody
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 10:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill: American economy

Thanks for that post. I see the American economy in very negative terms, as essentially it is based on (self-)deceit and shaky foundations all round. The whole economic strategy went off the rails from around the time when Reagan "freed up" the economy, leaving little by way of good sense, responsibility, etc. With Greenspan as an advocate of monetary irresponsibility, and low interest rates readily resorted to, borrowing became a national disease. And fiscal aid to money-makers in trouble discharged those from any responsibility for their deeds - expressed, for example, in one's being able to walk out of one's house without paying any mortgage, the only requirement being that one sends the key to the bank that gave one the money. This is a society that no longer has any clear sense of what it means to be in debt; that money does need to be earned; that the state cannot take on private debt forever, etc. It seems to me that the place has largely lost any compass about such matters.

This is also the reason, I believe, why the monetary and fiscal stimulus gets constantly mistaken for economic growth that is actually EARNED. Americans are so befuddled that they cannot see the difference between artifice and reality any more. Only now, slowly, is the inevitable truth emerging that you just cannot go on running a country this way.

So I expect plenty of trouble yet, and see the "recovery" as in all likelihood almost entirely resting on artifice. What we are asked to believe is that somehow, mysteriously, artifice will morph into reality. Very unlikely to happen, surely, particularly if one considers just how much money needs to be repaid.

It is my fear of the state of the US, and of Europe, where things are also very bad, which makes me consequently worry about the impact on the Asia Pacific region as well, for unlike many I do not believe that the Asia Pacific region (to which Australia belongs) can effectively function on its own already. To be fair to the Chinese, they themselves don't doubt their dependence, as yet, on the US and Europe.

To my mind the global economy, although there are of course also pockets of strength, is in significant trouble, and it also seems as though now far more people realise this than did so around the end of last year, for example. With this realisation of problems on the increase, I just cannot believe that people like Shane Oliver etc have got the picture right, and I am with those who foresee a slow second half. For one thing there will be, I feel quite sure, too little demand, worldwide, with too many people deciding to save. While that happens economies cannot bounce back, though the idea of saving and paying back debt - much favoured by the new British government - is in principle no doubt right. In other words, we shall either explode, so to speak, by US policies which will strongly damage economies, and experience trouble that way; or we shall be saved by facing the problems frontally, as the UK is doing, in which case there will, however, also be pain. Or we shall see a mixture. Under any scenario, there is to my mind bound to be an ongoing impact on this part of the world as well, though I concede that even if we struck a VERY bad patch it would here probably be more temporary, as Asia (ex-Japan) still has strong growth prospects.


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bridog
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Breaker and others interested,

BND had a bit of a jump yesterday, didn't know why until this morning. According to ABC news the Indians are sniffing around the Galilee Basin for coal interests.

Can't post more, work beckons, but it is interesting news. Could it be the start of the long awaited re-rating for BND?


Old enough to know better . . .

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ody
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 09:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Part of an article by FnArena that might be a bit of a shock to those bullish on the Australian market

This is an extraordinarily interesting article:
-------------------------
Rudi's View: Australia, The Underperformer
FNArena News - August 03 2010

This story was originally published on Wednesday, July 28, 2010. It has now been re-published to make it available to non-paying members at FNArena and to readers elsewhere.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

I must have read some thirty attempts to explain why the Australian share market has underperformed most other markets since March 2009, but none, I believe, has even come close to what I consider to be the key element in this “mystery”.

Earnings growth.

Forget about market size, the Australian dollar, risk appetite, government taxes and whatever else has been lined up to explain what I consider a fairly straightforward story.

European companies are in the process of reporting average growth in earnings per share of around 24% this fiscal year. In the US, the number is much higher, with June quarter numbers alone expected to come out close to 30%.

And what has Australia to offer?

I just updated FNArena's calculations and can now report that Australia's top 200 companies are, less than one week away from entering the August reporting season, projected to report an average advance in earnings per share of... (wait for it).... (just a bit more)... less than 2%.

That's right. Less than 2%. To be more precise, the actual figure currently stands at 1.79%. I hope it now is obvious why Australia has underperformed.

Fund managers allocating client money on a global scale do not have the time, nor much inclination, to dig deeper into all the finer details. I have little doubt that once experts decided the Australian dollar had its run, towards the end of 2009, they decided it was time to seek greener pastures.

With 1.79% on offer against numbers well in excess of 20%, and I am not even including Asian or Latin American markets, who could blame them? It's only Australian commentators who have mostly been too self-oriented, remaining stuck in the “we're so much better than all the rest” mantra, who have been left scratching their heads asking how, why, and then again how, and again why?

As many of you would know, I have kept a close eye on earnings expectations since the beginning of calendar 2010. Post the February interim-results season average earnings per share growth for Australia's top companies was projected at some 6% for FY10.

Since April these projections have come under pressure as global growth had peaked and overall momentum has started slowing down. Australian companies began issuing profit warnings, including the likes of Macquarie (MQG), QBE Insurance ((QBE)) and Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)).

Others disappointed, such as Harvey Norman ((HVN)), Woolworths ((WOW)) and Energy Resources of Australia ((ERA)). Plus we had resources analysts cutting back on expectations as it became clear that projections put forward at year-end in 2009 were looking too high.

As a result of all this, the consensus EPS growth projection for the Australian market has dropped from 6% to 1.79%. I don't think we have seen the end of this process yet. Could the number actually end up as a negative? Easily. But I think even without this happening, the decision by global asset managers to allocate more capital elsewhere has already been vindicated. Sometimes not being as rotten as the other apples in the basket can turn out a relative negative. The past eighteen months have provided one such prime example.

I do have good news to report, however. Europe and the US might have offered superior prospects this year, but the outlook for FY11 looks to the advantage of Australia. With EPS growth projected to fall to low double digits in Europe and in the US, Australia will be able to offer a superior growth profile next year.

Current consensus forecasts amount to projected 18.6% EPS growth for FY11 in Australia, down from growth expectations in excess of 20% at the start of March, but well above what is anticipated for companies in the US and in Europe.

Add the fact that most FX forecasters are anticipating a stronger Australian dollar in the year ahead, along the lines of US94c compared with US89c today, and it would seem the Australian share market should once again appear on the radar of global asset managers.

One of the drivers behind present changes in FX expectations is the fact that Fed tightening is being pushed out until early 2012 (at the earliest) at many a Wall Street investment firm, while expectations for further rate hikes in Australia are equally pushed further out (rightfully so), but nowhere near as far.

Two important caveats come with all of the above. Firstly, Australian companies still have to report their FY10 results with accompanying guidance for the year ahead. Given the trend over the past three months, it seems only fair to expect that earnings projections will be cut further. On this account, we will all be a lot wiser by early September.

Secondly, earnings projections in Australia are more dependent on commodity prices than most elsewhere. While this opens up the potential for bigger positive surprises in case of buoyant scenarios for global growth, it also means downside risks are much larger.

This risk is probably best illustrated by the BHP Billiton ((BHP)) experience over the past two years: measured in USD (the company's reporting currency), earnings per share fell by no less than 61% in FY09. If everything goes according to plan, the company will in the third week of August report a gain for FY10 of no less than 115%.

Those with a good feeling for maths already figured out it will take another year before BHP's EPS will again exceed the numbers reported in 2009. On current expectations, FY11 should see another advance in the order of 61%.

Current consensus forecasts could also serve as an indication of when valuation limits start kicking in for the Australian share market. With the ASX200 around 4500, the Price-Earnings ratio for the Australian share market is still at nearly 15.5 for FY10 – well above the long term average of 14-14.5.

However, if we look at consensus calculations for FY11 the PE ratio drops below 13. Applying a multiple of 14 would take the index to 4853, roughly 6.6% above today's index level.

I do note, however, both BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) are still 21% and 30% below their respective average price targets. The same applies to all major banks in Australia with CommBank ((CBA)) shares trading at the lowest discount (7.6%) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) offering the highest potential (16.3%).

As discounts for all major banks and both giant resources companies are larger than the upside suggested by the market's PE ratio, it is possible these six companies can push the index closer to the 5000 mark.


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jaded
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 01:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



bridog/breaker even Ody-

Washington Soul has gone over 5% Substantial Holder in AQR.
It paid 48cents for I think 3 million shares in a 'Only to Wash Soul'Placement.
Not too many months ago Soul paid a Director 25 cents/ for a few million shares.
I deduce that Wash Soul LIKES AQR[paying twice as much within 6 months,for one thing]

Anyhow,Wash Soul must have cast an 'experts' eye over the drilling results so it,AQR must have something Going for it.[other than my recommendation,that is!!]

bridog-the Indians are circling the Linc Coal,aren't they?I thought that's where they're putting their money down for not BND?

Ody-My broker lists CBA interest securities but states that they are not Chess Tradeable.
Also they don't use codes like PERL III but another string of Letters.I've found Perl III for example but what's this Non Chess Listed Bit?
Do you buy and sell down the Bank or something?
Where do you get Depth Quotes?My broker doesn't show this on their Site.
Ody,I might private email you about these.Is that OK?

regards.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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ody
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 05:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jaded/cat lady: interest rate securities


jaded, I use a broker myself and have found it in no sense difficult to buy and sell these except, of course, that sometimes there is insufficient demand or supply or the price does not suit. They are not as liquid as e.g. BHP. But as far as I know they are on Chess along with any "normal" stocks I have ever traded (but of which I have none at present). I have certainly never been asked to fill in anything special, or found I needed to wait, and I get ordinary contract notes, etc.

Yes, I used "PERLS III" for clarity, but the CODE is PCAPA. I have sent both you and cat lady a document which may be of some help on the various issues - I think it will be. Don't forget to contact the ASX website, as well: there is quite a bit of info there (as there should be; but it is not as GOOD and FULL as it should be).

Anyway, I can certainly also be contacted readily enough by private email. As far as I know you have my address. In any case I am not going to state it here, as I prefer to preserve my "incognito". Don't hesitate to write, though. And the same naturally applies to cat lady, who similarly has my address already.

(Message edited by ody on August 03, 2010)


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market_mad
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Hi all,

As Rudy has explained in the EW Watching thread this morning - we are very close to a top or may have already topped out in the market.

I would urge anyone holding shares to be extremely cautious because the next move down will be huge and you don't want to be holding onto stocks in hope that they will go up during this anticipated next move.

I bought some September 4100 put options yesterday which were extremely cheap because of the low volatility around at the moment. If I am right and the next move starts to gain traction quickly then the price of these will start to reflect the mood and volatility.

I will be loading up on selling some ASX200 forward CFDs today as well and will be averaging into them over the next 24 hours with stops placed at 4680.

Not advice, purely my views and what I am doing.

Good luck to all
Cheers
MM


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eblode
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 11:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MM,
I tips me lid to you. You're playing the market like the Pro you are.
For my part I've sold out a large portfolio holding only HIL, LYC, WOW, and NRT.
Let the deluge come. The sooner the better.

Eugenio


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gdd3
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From a charting mate on H.C. comes an interesting comparisons of times and patterns leading into this time (last year V's this year) in the XJO.

Last year the XJO compounded the critics and kept going up and up and up...

But is this year different? Most here are saying YES!

The XJO Daily comparing last year with this year....hope the PDF file chart comes out(to save me reconstructing what he illustrates so well).

application/pdf
presentation3.1.pdf (169.2 k)


Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

That is fascinating. It really will be interesting to see if the same thing happens. Thanks for sharing the chart. I had not seen it before.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 04:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...and another interesting comparison; the DJIA of 1935/36 and 1936/37 versus the Current position.

Will Rudy and Clan be right of will Prechter and himself be?

application/pdf
presentation3.2.pdf (109.7 k)


Cheers
Dolphin


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gdd3
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 05:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



....and just for your Eugenio...the Bull!

Mr Charlie Aitken, from Southern Cross...., still is very bullish and such a contrarian; so much to like about this aspect of his 'investment' views.

Just a couple of days ago he wrote...





"When ultra cheap money meets ultra cheap stocks you know there is only going to be one outcome. Our view remains that the smart and early money in the world is moving not just from low yielding cash, but also adding cheap US funded gearing, and deploying into risk assets globally (with an Asian tilt).
We get the feeling that the biggest mistake both investors and corporates can make from this point is to sit in low yielding, low returning, cash. Yet, everywhere you look from corporate cash levels, through to hedge fund, mutual fund and personal investor cash levels, all you see is record holdings of cash as people belatedly protect capital. Similarly, we see most asset allocators favouring fixed interest over equities, commodities and property.
Well, we recommend the complete opposite as the world recovers. We recommend global cyclical equities, commodities, commodity currencies (which have huge interest rate differential support), residential and commercial property, and financials all with an Asian tilt as Asian growth rates will outstrip the world. We recommend shorting treasuries across the globe, moving out of expensive defensives, cash and havens, and "having a go"
.

You can read on his website in his current edition in full some of these stories below -

• Charlie's morning thoughts; when ultra cheap money meets ultra cheap stocks
• US jobs; Friday could print positive
• Equity risk premium; highest in 30 years
• US cash deposit rates; collapsing
• Corporate bond issuance is positive for equities
• M&A and the carry trade are back
• Vale; clearly in our camp

Go Australia."
}

(Message edited by gdd3 on August 05, 2010)


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peterloh
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 06:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dolphin,

I am of similar view with Charlie Atkins. Some time ago, baysider pointed it out to me that our approach are similar, that we are contrarian. For some time Charlie turned a bit bearish not too long ago. I am glad he is back on track, anything would be better than 1% interest rates in the US. I am surprise QBE missed this point and only invested 7% in equities. We now know the reason for their poor results.It will probably take another 2 years for the stock market to get back to its pre GFC level.
It takes about 100 years for this GFC thing to happen, the next opportunity if we miss it this time, we may have to wait another 100 years. I am not prepared to wait that long.(lol) Even Eblode has turned a bit cautious, its right the Bull does climb a wall of worries.

peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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eblode
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 10:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peterloh,
Frankly the only reason I turned a bit cautious is that I have such faith in the work that Rudy has produced with his team of EW experts that I dare not
challenge their conclusions of a sharp downfall. Although this expected downward trend was to take place in late July, and didn't, I am willing to play it safe and wait a couple of weeks longer. With the market edging closer and closer to it's previous highs and then reversing sharply as in the past I felt those are still dangerous areas to traverse. I'm in cash and waiting while still enjoying big gains from WHC, QBE, NVT and WOW. But if nothing eventuates in the next week and the market breaks 4700 then I will be jumping in boots and all.

Eugenio


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bridog
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Peter and Eugenio,

I have already jumped in big time. In the last month I've bought AAC,ANZ, APA, ASZ, BHP, BSL, CMJ, KAR, MSL, NXS (you beauty), WES, WOR and some old favourites, GXY and IFE. All trending or look likely to trend well, and most showing good profits. Today I added to SOL, got back into GOLD and took some profits on BND.

Mind you at the first sign of real weakness I'm ready to dump most of them, regardless of price.

The XJO is only 3% off 4700, trending well on a line chart, but looking a bit toppy on a candle chart at the moment.

Cheers


Old enough to know better . . .

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rdumas
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 07:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eugenio,

You seem to have late July firmly planted in your mind. I specifically gave a time frame of late July/early August. We are still in early August.

The other thing that I should repeat once again as I have done so ad nauseum is that timing is the most difficult part in technical analysis. Turning point time frames are like Fibonacci price levels, they indicate a strong potential for a turn taking place at that time........they do not guarantee that it will however if that time zone doesn't cause the turn then the next time zone comes into play.......and the next time frame that comes into play is a week later.

I have told you on numerous occasions that no one can give a 100% guarantee on the future price action, all we can do is work with probabilities and when the greatest potential exists for something to happen. If you look back over my record you will find that my larger pattern predictions have always been correct but the timing has at time had slippages. As your mate Rudd has quoted in the past "fair shake of the sauce bottle mate".


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 10:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,
Never for one moment should you feel obligated to be 100% on timing and dates. It would be the height of foolishness for myself or anybody else to rely solely on your calculations. However I do seriously give considerations to your views and weight them carefully regarding my own circumstances and views of the market at the time. In the past I have greatly benefited by your warnings and EW calculations and I shall continue to do so realizing all time that the final decision is in my court and mine alone. Without your input on this site I would be at a real disadvantage as it sharpens my senses of danger when otherwise I would be lulled into complacency.

Eugenio


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rdumas
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Thanks for understanding and saying that Eugenio. All we can do as technical analysts is to be as conscious of the various parameters presenting themselves and allocating probabilities to them. There are times when time, price and pattern coincide and it almost becomes inevitable that a turning point will come about. At those times (and they are rare) we are spot on in time price and pattern. On most other occasions there will be slippage in one or more of the factors.

At this point in time there is a pattern that is getting very close to completing but the timing is variable as is the price. At these times all we can do is wait for everything to fall into place. My aim in posting is to always give people as much warning as possible so that they are not caught unawares to oncoming problems. There will be times when that warning will take me (or anyone else heeding the waring) out of the market prematurely but that is in keeping with my risk profile due to my own particular set of circumstances. The one thing however is that when 'doing as I do' your hard earned savings will be exposed to the minimum of risk. That may not suit all kinds of investors (and invariably will not) but those who are in similar circumstances can benefit. Those who have entirely different risk profiles and circumstances can use the information to suit their own needs or ignore it altogether.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Peterloh,
I got "snookered " out of a good profit. I was holding my WHC shares and waiting for news of a takeover bid while the price was steady at 6.07. Then suddenly the price dropped to $5.97 and felt the insiders knew that the deal was off. I immediately sold out at $5.96, made a small profit and then waited for the price to really drop. But nothing happened. Twenty minutes later the price goes back to 6.07. Hmmmmm that was strange. I just looked at the price it's 6.14 and climbing. You win some, you lose some.This one lost.

Eugenio


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ody
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Saturday, August 07, 2010 - 04:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry for not posting

This is not due to lack of interest, but to our phones lines being out of action for several days without Telstra doing much, or acting effectively enough, to repair whatever went wrong. On a previous occasion we had trouble "in the pit", which was due to ageing infrastructure that needed hard physical labour to repair it. During that time we were inconvenienced, but still half-operative. Now we were utterly without phones and computers, and badly isolated.

I did spend a lot of time reading up on what was happening, financially, economically and politically, and got round to some matters that way which I might have missed if I'd been on-line as often as normally, but I also very much missed the on-line information I usually obtain and monitor.

For what it is worth, I feel that in the meantime the difference between "the two economies" has become quite a bit clearer again, and this expresses itself in action both among Australian voters on the one hand and among sectors of stocks on the other.

Voters in the resources-rich and "moving forward" states (those that DO move forward, I mean, economically and in terms of businesslike attitudes), i.e. Western Australia and Queensland, are favouring the Coalition, while the more genteel states of Victoria and South Australia, which are further removed from nitty-gritty money-making and which moreover are more connected with Gillard (each of them claiming her as "our" girl) have moved more towards the current PM. At this stage, though, most figures do suggest a Coalition victory rather than one for Labor, but whether one would bank on it is a different thing. New South Wales will be important along with Queensland in making or breaking Labor, and tends to be more business-likes in its attitudes than Victoria or South Australia. Even so, the election is still winnable for Labor.

In any case, though, if I did venture into the market then, despite some drawbacks that I can also see, I would at this stage favour resources simply because iron ore and coal are strong and there has been a measure of recovery in base metals as well. Although the dangers of a property bubble in China, along with other risks, remain real, it does obviously turn out to be the case that that country has been buying big from us, and this may well continue for a while.

If that strength does continue, then I think it is unlikely that we shall get a very severe correction here in Australi - certainly not one of the kind Prechter sees. If, however, for whatever reason the resources sector were to weaken strongly because it is felt that the GLOBAL economy is not making any headway, or new subprime-type problems are just round the corner, then we could see a significant fall in our market.

For, let us note, the rest of the market is performing quite poorly, as indeed is the economy now. There is a huge cleavage between that part of our economy which is part of the global, notably Asian, scene, and the domestic economy which is weakening as people are saving more, paying off mortgages, and spending less on both houses and in general on retail. Those various activities now really look as though they are "dying down" more than anything else, and in this respect we are behaving very much in tune with most countries which are acting as though a second dip is likely, or already occurring, or as though "it feels as though we are in a recession even though we aren't".

It follows that I have very little faith in our market other than the resources sector, and I do not think that this is a good time to play the market AS A WHOLE (as distinct from resources). The weakening figures in many areas other than resources do not augur well.

So, even with a mining tax on the way if Labor wins, the resources sector may be OK to be in - but I'd on the whole steer clear otherwise.

In general, Asian markets have been behaving far more impressively, and I see considerable strength in e.g. Singapore. Go to http://au.finance.yahoo.com/ to see how that country's market has performed relative to our own, of late.

That city-state has a very robust and capable economy, and might well be a safer, i.e. less volatile, environment than China itself (I say "China itself" as the ethnic profile of Singapore is so very Chinese, but, of course, far more expert at making money in the world as a whole, having been a success for many decades while China is by comparison a beginner). I am not lying awake with worry about China though.

I often think that currently Australia is probably not the best country to invest in, and tend to believe that e.g. the Platinum Asia (w/o Japan!) Fund may well be a good call, as through it one does not get only the right markets to invest in, but also the right manager, with an excellent, proven record.

There are, of course, other possibilities for those who dislike the comparative weakness of much that happens within Australia - one can (a) select another manager for Asia, and (b) so-called "emerging" markets, though not without risk, also have a lot of fire-power.

Outside the resources area, I think few people would on the whole at current, if they looked at Australia from outside, see our market as a particularly good one to invest in. I do not mean that the prospects are not good in the medium term: they probably are, as China all in all will probably hold up well enough. But we are over-dependent on that country, with a very vulnerable, onesided economy, which is moreover weakening in non-resource sectors.

So although I think Aitken is always an extremist, I do agree with him in seeing at least possibilities in resources. However, he far too much overlooks the global dangers which might militate even against resources, and the emphasis on low interest rates which he talks about is utterly beside the point in Australia: yes, in the US interest rates are virtually zero, but here in Australia there is little evidence that the RBA will LOWER interest rates - it may well yet raise them, and the question then would be when. And in any case, the banks, too, will continue to look for deposit-money, and at this stage there are still some very good rates to be had for deposits (though no longer for the very long term); and there are quite satisfactory interest rate securities as well. I am making a formidable amount of money with very little risk. Of course, if I were an American I might well be looking elsewhere, but in Australia there is very little wrong currently with being in deposits, high yielding savings accounts, and interest rate securities.


(Message edited by ody on August 07, 2010)


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billt
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The State of the Nation - USA!

I continue to keep an eye on the economic fundamentals emerging out of USA.

The Fed meets again on Tuesday. The Fed’s last set of minutes warned of "significant downside risks" and a possible slide into deflation, an admission that zero interest rates, $1.75 trillion of QE, and a fiscal deficit above 10pc of GDP have so far failed to lift the economy out of a structural slump.

Things haven’t got much better – actually they have got worse.

America’s total debt is now expected to exceed $14 trillion next year. Each American’s share of that debt totals just short of $50,000. America is actually in debt over $100 trillion due to the unfunded financial obligations for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid – that’s $350,000 for each man, woman, and child

The magnitude of the problem is staggering.

US Social Security will pay out more this year than it gets in payroll taxes.

Most States are bust – if they were companies the Receiver’s would have been called in long ago.

Over 300 state-chartered banks have failed to date, and the number increases daily

The American Consumer is in bad shape. 40.8m Americans are now on Food Stamps. There will be 1.6m further consumer bankruptcies this year. Retail sales are tepid.

Fridays Non payrolls were particularly bad news. The US shed 131,000 Jobs in July, and readjusted the June losses by 100%. 200,000 new jobs are needed each month to reduce the unemployment rate, so they are a long way from steadying the ship.

My own view was that the Non Payrolls numbers on Friday was the last straw in investor confidence.

Rudy’s alternative wave count, which signaled a potential collapse of the US markets has, I feel, already commenced. SPX @ 1128 was the potential short term high. A 20% downward correction on the SPX @ 880 within the next 4 weeks is a possibility. Although our economy is in much better shape, the market will follow the leader, with the XJO @ 3850 the target.

If the Fed continues with more stimuli and the money supply increases, POG will rally to the top of the trend line to usd$1450 in the near term. The $AUD should re-test the support at 80.5 cents, but I feel the ‘Aussie’ will pull back to c.77 cents during this correction.

Bear the Markets. Bull on Gold.

Look out for a big drop on the SPX on the open on Monday night, followed by a relief rally - then stand clear for a destructive wave 3.


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jaded
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 08:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Billt,
are you any relative of Gavin and Sylvia Tulloch?
I'm a long term holder of Dyesol so if you are a relative of it's Directors?
I'd really appreciate your views on the how'n'whys they are so Soft and Slow!!

cheers.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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eblode
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Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 10:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Billt,
Don't give the USA financial scene a second of your time figuring out their finances. It's a nation with unlimited money assets, a bottomless pit to eternity lined with $$$$$$$$$$. For over 50- years I've heard the same old refrain "the country is in so much debt it must topple over soon" and it just keeps rolling along. Bigger, better than ever.
Americans are the most resilient race in bouncing back and laughing at the world whenever they begin to believe the financial end is in sight. Will never happen.
So relax, enjoy, and watch Uncle Sam spend more billions on going to Mars, or busting up molecules in centrifugal billion dollar machines or some other nuclear toy. How much? Who cares. It's only money. And they got plenty.

Eugenio


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ody
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Eugenio: money and the USA

Surely you must mean "they PRINT plenty". There is no such thing as an ongoing money supply unless people either earn it or print it. It does not fall out of the sky, or sprout forth out of the soil. As the USA certainly is not earning what it is printing, one would have to conclude that what you have in mind is that it will continue to print money. That can of course happen, but its value will ultimately be greatly affected by its "real" economic performance. Anyone can produce Monopoly money.


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bridog
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Billt,

Just a little counterbalance to the horror stories:

Headline: Unemployment in the US reaches 9.75%!

Counterbalance: Over 90% of US workforce is employed.

I haven't seen or heard of any flood of applications from US citizens for jobs in Oz. Immigration to Australia from the US is a non-event, it doesn't even rate a mention on the Dept of Immigration website.

From this one might deduce that US citizens are not seeing circumstances dire enough to want to leave home.

Cheers


Old enough to know better . . .

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ody
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Monday, August 09, 2010 - 07:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bridog: US employment, and share markets

If 9.75% of US citizens are unemployed it does not follow that 90% of them are employed. The employment figures usually include part-timers (often people with very little work indeed), but exclude those who have given up looking for work. In a substantial sense, then, there are in fact always more people unemployed than the official figures suggest, in this case 9.75%, and the extent of unemployment cannot be measured simply by subtracting 9.75% from 100%.

I do agree one must strike a balance in one's views where one can, but any attempt to do so, in the case of the US, will find it difficult not to encounter very bad figures, and many of them. I do not mean that the situation is entirely clear-cut, but banking on a US recovery at this point would not seem to find much support in the relevant evidence.

It does not NECESSARILY follow, as Bill suggests, that Australia will "follow the leader" (or at least do so all the way) if and when Wall Street tanks. However, statistically this does usually happen, even if with some modifications, and it has regularly done so even during this GFC crisis, despite all the talk (and for that matter reality) about our having a very different economy. Most investors still seem to believe that if once shares in the US really get clobbered their country will not be spared.

I am not, myself, convinced that the situation is as bad as in 2008 and will automatically send us back to the 2009 March low, but I do expect a very substantial sell-off as more likely than any rise; and a return to March 2009 certainly would not shake me. I do concede, however, that Australia's exports of minerals recently have shown a strong result, and that there is still more to come that we already know about as being profitable. That is why I argued that if I were to buy any shares in this country they would be in resources, as I see that as the only substantial success story. However, again history shows that in a rout people tend to sell them down.

The SAFE attitude to adopt towards the Australian share market at this time would therefore probably be caution, and I would also emphasise that our market has in any case underperformed as a result of negative sentiment. This seems to be so partly because currently the earnings of many companies are low, and partly because more GFC troubles are expected globally; also, there is strong evidence that currently Australians are not spending, and are paying off debt. It is thus doubtful that such sentiment will suddenly change if Wall Street tumbles, even though Australian investors might well be fundamentally wrong to sell their shares. Much market action is guided by sentiment pure and simple, even though eventually, of course, the fundamentals do get recognised. Markets often do "get it wrong" for shorter or even longer periods.


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eblode
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Bridog,
The average American doesn't know the difference between Austria and Australia. A manager at Sears Roebuck once asked me how far is it to drive to Australia. I told him to travel on Route 1 to San Francisco and then it gets tricky.
If they had a clue as to how terrific this country is they would be pouring down here in the millions. The best food, the best medical coverage, great climate and plenty of room to expand. But when friends come over from the USA I always tell them to complain back home about the "flies and kangaroos" in Oz. Why ruin a good thing?

Eugenio


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peterloh
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Monday, August 09, 2010 - 09:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



bridog and Eugenio,

Commodities are doing well currently, that include oil.
Copper is at a 3 months high, oil is over $80 and even nickel is now @22100, up $225 last Friday.China has been dragging it feet compared to previously because it need to check on some of the high property prices. Someone else is buying commodities, besides China. Once China decides to remove its foot from the brake pad, things will improve further still.

It is not all doom and gloom yet. Volatility will still be in the stock market, double dip unlikely, recovery slow down a bit, yes. Dow Jones dropped 160 points on Friday at one stage before bargain hunter came in to buy value and Dow closed 21 points down. I am optimistic that things will be better still, with the usual October profit taking etc.

Cheers,

Peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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jaded
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eugenio,
why are Americans so ignorant of other countries geography or even existence?
Do they have a really poor education system?
or are they just pig ignorant filled with the arrogance of My country right or wrong?
If any of these apply?well their theory of just printing money and your assertions that they will never fall or fail is put into a context of Ignorance and/or Arrogance.

regards


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Untill the XJO price action breaks down through the current trend line I still believe that we still have another leg up to complete the current pattern. Not only has the trend line not yet been broken but the retracements (with one exception) during the current rally have been less than 50%.




I should point out to Ody that you were not suggesting that our market would take out the March 2009 low (which was 3120.8) as you were talking about my alternate scenario with a target of around the 3850 level. It may bottom a little higher than that depending on how far up the final leg goes (ie, if my contention that there is one leg up left is correct).


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Monday, August 09, 2010 - 12:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded,

Haven't you heard that Americans need wars so they can learn geography?


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ody
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Rudy, - Market low

Just to clear up what may be a misunderstanding: I in no sense thought of Bill when I was talking about the 2009 low, and did not think of him as having that in mind himself. I was talking far more generally, and simply mentioned that level as one that we are all aware of and that many would see as a major "horror" point while others would expect the market to go even lower. I merely wished to indicate that I felt we could get a significant fall, but probably not (or at least not immediately) of a truly traumatic kind. I think, like you, that something like 3850 is quite reasonable to think of, at least in the first instance.

So please rest assured: I didn't at all think of Bill, or you, or anyone thinking along EW lines, in making that comment. And, indeed, if I were to think of an EW prediction which I'd find unconvincing and thus worth mentioning specifically, then it would be Prechter's. The 2009 low was on my mind simply because it would be thought of by many if they were to contemplate a bad fall.

In the main I wanted to make clear that I am more bearish than bullish, and do expect a significant fall - as you do - but still not of a truly draconian kind.


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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

Thanks for clearing up your previous comments. I think that we are of the same mind.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Hi everyone,

Well that woke everyone up – thought you all needed a bit of juice to liven things up!

I do accept everyone’s view on the ‘Stars & Stripes’ issues. Let’s hope they can work through $100 trillion of issues sooner rather than later.

Alternatively, we here in Oz have $0 worth of troubles – but let’s not tell anyone.

I am a big fan of the States. I have numerous friends there, and spend time there whenever I can. I do feel that they have lived beyond their means, but as Eugenio quite rightly states – they will invent something weird for us all to buy and they will be away once again.

Thanks Rudy for your reconfirmation of your more likely outcome for the XJO. In terms of the SPX, my preference is Rudy's Weekend Market Wrap Addendum EW chart.

Look out tonight on the SPX for a quick trip to 1088, then a run back up to 1120 to form a mini Head & Shoulders before the trip south. We then run down the right shoulder of the mini H&S, and the right shoulder of the larger H&S pattern (1150/1219/1128) that stretch back to earlier this year. Hey, but what do I know!

And finally, thanks Jaded for your note. No, I’m not related to Gavin & Sylvia Tulloch – but if they are worth a few bob, I’m happy to be adopted!

I always say when asked the question as to which ‘Tulloch’ I’m related to:

‘No, but I’m a full half brother to the horse'


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eblode
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Jaded,
In answer to your question as to why Americans are generally ignorant of geography I turned inward to my own education in State Schools in the USA.
For a start 99% of children up to the age of 17 go to State Schools. Rich or poor, all nationalities, all religions are put in the "pot" of State School education. Only a few boarding schools are private and expensive. Where you live is the area that your school is and that is that. In school you learn to be a patriotic American. Every day you repeat the "Pledge of Allegiance" and salute the flag. Patriotic songs are sung, stories are told of the pioneers of America, and holidays are celebrated wildly on historic events in American history( 4th July, Labour Day). President birthdays are holidays for school kids (Washington, Lincoln, and even Martin Luther King. By the time you graduate you truly believe that the United States is the greatest nation that ever was. No doubt. So why look further? It's all here. These United States have the greatest of everything. Best movies, best TV, best airplanes, best Doctors,best,best,best and so say all of us! In my case I joined the merchant marine in search of love and adventure and found it in my travels. And that was the beginning of my early education in geography. Had I left school and got a job, married, had kids and spent the rest of my life in a normal groove I wouldn't have a clue where the hell
Melbourne Australia is from Melbourne Florida, and frankly it wouldn't even cross my mind. Who cares? I'm an American. Isn't that all you need in this world to get by? And that Jaded is your average American citizen.

Eugenio







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billt
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Monday, August 09, 2010 - 05:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Eugenio

That explains it!

Interestingly, over 49% of Americans are self-described 'isolationists'...

...which further explains why only 22% of Americans have passports...

You have to feel for them! The poor souls only get 1-2 weeks paid holiday a year, and now the Poms have covered their beaches in @#$%.

 
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