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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through August 05, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through August 05, 2010

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billt
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Post Number: 39
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 07:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rash

Thank you for 'the stripped down' Pollyanna...and the explanation. It looks very symmetrical going either direction.

To keep Rudy happy let's go to 900 first, then 1260. Don't upset him! 200 points down then 360 up - that's the plan.

I'm playing with Pollyanna rather than Auntie at present - so I do appreciate the charts.

Great work

Bill


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rdumas
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 08:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re your post 38. I don't believe that the move up is an impulse wave because the 4th wave intruded way into the price range of the first wave. For that reason I would suspect that either we made a top where my label y is located or we have another leg up as shown in the chart below to form a complex 5 wave corrective pattern.

Hence as the rally is not an impulse wave then the larger pattern for Minor wave B cannot be a Flat corrective pattern.





In either case for scenario 3 it would mean that Minute wave circle c would be the third leg of a Triangle pattern to form Minor wave B as per my example for the XJO in this weekend's market wrap document.

If on the other hand we are looking at scenario's 1 and 2, the move up would be either a corrective pattern for Minute wave circle ii or Minor wave corrective wave 2 depending on whether the final termination level is above the previous peak or not.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings, Wave Watchers.

SafeHaven is a site dedicated to financial markets and contains a wealth of intelligent articles discussing technical conditions.

So I was surprised to find this morning the following article which contains some background to the current astrological transits.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17678/global-catastrophe-alert


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rdumas
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 01:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Further to my earlier post 3692 in which I made the following comment: "Hence as the rally is not an impulse wave then the larger pattern for Minor wave B cannot be a Flat corrective pattern."

Whilst the impulse portion of the statement was correct, the rest was not. We could still get a Flat pattern if Minor wave B was an ending diagonal.

There is a distinct possibility that we may very well have an ending diagonal forming.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 03:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Target Level for S&P500 Scenario 3 - Flat Pattern

If our scenario 3 - Flat pattern for the S&P500 is forming then we do know the absolute maximum level that the current rally can go to because the range of Minuette wave (iii) cannot be the smallest range of Minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v). Now since the range of Minuette wave (i) was 88.55 points and Minuette wave (iii) was 64.07 then (assuming that we have now seen the low for Minuette wave (iv) then Minuette wave (v) must terminate under 1088.01 + 64.07 = 1152.08 !!!


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 12:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys,
Magnificent information from everyone in all parts.
Great to show people who have no idea of the stock market & think that all it is, is a line going up & down.
Theres some simple trendlines in effect for ASX 200 & SPX that I'm sure you guys are aware off & once the overhead or underlying line gets broken then we know the next direction. Most likely scenario = Down.
This is to rash - Always wanted to learn a bit about astrology , fantastic post you started, looking forward to reading more. Also for rash - Does using Astrology intraday work, Can you define a pattern or a possible turning point to the hour of the day??
The dates I wrote before (Aug 2 - XJO , July 29/30 - SPX) seem to be lows & not highs, once again. There is a trendline that hasn't been touched by the XJO yet but most likely will be on Monday (probably at 4472) & then resuming upward movement till maybe Thursday. The other trendline for the SPX was touched on Friday so I am favouring one more move up also to finish around Wednesday night before this trendline finally being broken on Thursday or Friday.
Rash, the article was amazing because the next date I have for a potential turning point is AUGUST 6 !!!
Also the information you posted on the astrology chart seems to align with a scenario I am favouring.
Monday = down to 4472 to complete 4th wave.
Tuesday , Wednesday & possibly Thursday = Finishing 5th & final wave for this leg up from July 6.
With the possible turning point being the 6th , the wave must finish before close of Friday to be considered the turning point.
Looks like there are more pros to cons regarding if the movement has finished or not.
After Wednesday, it could just drop like a person who can't get to the toilet quick enough!! KKKEERRRRPPPPPPPLLLLLLLLLUUUUNNNNNNNKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!
asx count


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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 10:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Applying EW Counts to Stocks

Just for a bit of a change I thought that it would be worth while doing an EW count on one of our ASX20 stocks. The one that I have chosen is a favourite of mine because of its past fundamental superiority over its peers, namely WBC.

As one would expect because it contributes much to the pattern for the overall market, WBC is forming a pattern not all that dissimilar to the index itself. The proposed count that I have is shown in the chart below. As you can see I do expect a strong decline in this stock in the near future.



The fact that the first leg down in this corrective move was an impulse wave indicates that the completed pattern will form a Zigzag. This would point to a dramatic fall in WBC over the coming period.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 10:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible EW Count for BHP

BHP is forming a slightly different pattern for Minor wave B. I have labelled it an Expanding Triangle however one could argue the case for a Triple 3. Either way, the pattern is coming to an end in the near future and we should head south form there.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 10:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,
Having both WBC and BHP in my portfolio I am really shaken by your dire reports on both these bastions of the Australian market. For that reason I am now putting close stops and watching with sharpened senses any downward movements from now on. Personally I feel you are mistaken, but knowing your
genius for charting I certainly will be keenly watching these shares for any signs of a southward plunge.

Eugenio


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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 11:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eugenio,

If the overall market goes into the decline that I am expecting then it makes sense that stocks like BHP and WBC would also be severely affected. But then again it's possible that I may have had my charts 'upside down' when I did my EW counts.

You know what I'm like when I get stuck into that Southern Comfort.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 11:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,
If you're wrong on this one it's a MILK diet for you pal!
Eugenio


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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 11:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eugenio,

You would know that a milk diet would not be a punishment for me as I love my latte's


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 12:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Trading EW Pattern Personalities in Stocks

What I have noticed very often in stock charts is that patterns emerge that look familiar but are not perfect EW patterns. So whilst they are not true EW patterns we can say that they exhibit the 'personality' of a particular pattern. So if we know for example that we are in a corrective phase of a market cycle and something looks like a Zigzag but does not meet the exact EW counts for a Zigzag, a trader can none the less treat it as a Zigzag for trading purposes. The same would be said for patterns that exhibit the personality of a Flat pattern.

Hence trading EW pattern 'personality' types can give a trader an edge over someone without this knowledge as it gives the trader a 'context' in which to trade the price action.

As I have mentioned in past posts, one of the most common patterns found in charts is the Zigzag pattern. It forms the 'basic building block' of many larger patterns. It not only occurs in more complex corrective patterns but it also occurs as part of impulse waves. The example I have given in the past is that waves 1, 2 and 3 of an impulse wave is a Zigzag and similarly waves 3, 4 and 5 of an impulse wave is a Zigzag.

As this pattern is so common it pays to look out for it as it is a tradable pattern. One of the most tradable aspects of a Zigzag is that it will on many occasions give us a wave equality scenario.

As a pure Zigzag corrective wave the most common scenario is wave equality between the first and third wave. Knowing this, when a third wave is about to commence, the trader has a sensible target for the termination range of that wave. If the pattern turned out to be the first 3 waves of an impulse wave then the trader once again can feel reasonably confident that the range of the third wave will more often than not be at least the same range as the first wave.

One stock that does display this tendency quite often is LGL. Not what happened in its recent pattern.




Note that the first leg down in this pattern looked impulsive and the nature of the retracement made it look 'sharper' than what we would expect for a Flat pattern so once we started the third leg of the pattern I would have used wave equality as a potential target level. You can see that it gave us a target that was within 2 cents of the actual termination level.

I use this approach very often in setting target levels and am pleasantly surprised at how often the targets come in very close to the mark.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 12:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Thanks for your weekend responses.

It does look like the SPX will head to c.1131 this week, before we turn south.

I will begin to load up in my 'Bears' as we approach the target to ride the trip south once again:

-TZA Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares Russell 2000 -300% RTY
-BGZ Daily Large Cap Bear 3x Shares Russell 1000 -300% RIY
-FAZ Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares Russell 1000 Financial Services -300% RGUSFL

Thanks for the MW & your posts, & great to see Astro Boy doing his thing!

Bill


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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 01:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Glad to know that you are benefiting from the posts and thanks for reminding me about those shorting stocks.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 02:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Drilling Down on the Final Pattern for the XJO


When looking for an ending pattern what we should always be on the look out for is either an impulse wave or an ending diagonal. This relates equally for a higher level impulse pattern or the final leg in a higher level corrective pattern because at the lower level the last pattern will always be one of the above patterns.

When we drill down too much into intraday charts we will always run the risk of counting the 'spray of droplets' rather than the waves. One mechanism that we can sometimes use is the 'channelling effect' of impulse waves. Whilst I offer no guarantees with the following EW count for the current action, it does represent a possible count. If correct it would indicate another move up before completing.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 02:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hola, Rudy!

Any thoughts on whether Auntie today is making (i) and (ii) of the final leg up ... or whether the leg may be complete, in that today seems similar to Wave 1 on July 20?

Planetary lines allow this to go to 4616 - though Auntie will run into a downward pressure Venus line tomorrow at 4548.


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rash
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 02:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry, Rudy ... our posts crossed like ships in the fog.

Your post answers my question nicely. Ta muchly!


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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 02:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

The only thing we have to watch out for is that the impulse wave that I have possibly identified could turn out to be wave 1 of a larger impulsive move. It's the old story about level confusion reigning supreme.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 02:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hola, Rudy!

You're the guru and I'm very happy to bow to your greater experience.

However, if we're going on levels, I think we might need to make a Wave 4 before flying north.

1


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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 02:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

We are not in conflict. I was purely talking about the price action today. It looks like it has almost completed the first 4 waves of an impulse. That intraday chart only reflects that single last bar on your chart.

So my only point was that it is still possible that (using your labelling) the current price action may be only the first wave of your sub wave v of larger wave 3.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 03:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks, Rudy.

Sorry about the quality of the chart; I'll get the hang of this eventually.

I concur ... looks as if we have the first four waves; would set us up rather nicely for a completion of this subwave somewhere around a smooch with Venus tomorrow.


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rdumas
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 04:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The following post is not strictly EW but are factors that can help us with determining possible EW counts. If my various EW scenarios hold sway then the ascending blue trendline will eventually fail.

What a boring day for market participants. The daily XJO chart below shows us that the index is quickly approaching a crunch time in terms of which trend line will determine the medium term future for the price action.




We are currently in day 30 of the next 45 trading day cycle. The Slow Stochastic indicator is obviously in overbought territory but as we all know, these backward looking indicators can do that for ages before the market drops.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 11:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all, just want to show this chart for SPX. Basically all 3 trendlines that are mentioned intersect at around the 1135 - 1138 area & on another chart I have it shows that this happens during US trading on the 5/8.
Could be potential high??
One thing may happen is that it breaks the blue line & then retests it where all 3 intersect.
We shall find out soon !!
spx trendlines


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market_mad
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 08:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

Great work - love the astro stuff. MastersI46 it is interesting that you have indicated a potential high on 5th of August - that coincides with the link to the article that Rash posted on here on Sunday 1st August - Global Catastrophe Alert - which also states this as being an important date.

Latest from EW;

Today's surge indicated that the main stock indexes were not quite ready to resume the decline. But the pattern of the rally is clear as well as the diverging upside momentum. The combination of both argues that today's upward push will not be sustained for any length of time.

A last burst of excitement has carried prices above last week's highs in what should amount to the final subdivisions of wave c (circle) of 2. Three main headlines from this morning's news cycle perfectly capture the enthusiasm for a trend that has retraced a Fibonacci 62% of its April-May decline and is near its end. "Bulls Redeemed," was part of a Bloomberg news story during pre-market hours. The analysts quoted for the story all cited "stronger than expected" earnings as a reason the market should continue to rally. EWFF deconstructed this market myth in December 2009 and again in May, as we showed that aggregate stock earning's lag the market. "Expected" earnings are worthless as a market indicator because they represent nothing more than an expression of the optimism and pessimism of the analyst community, which is subject to the same herding impulses as all other investors. Another headline said that "…Battered bulls feel vindicated," with a market follower predicting that the Dow will rally to "well above 13,000 and even 14,000 in 2011," based on the Presidential Cycle. Yet another money manager who helps to oversee "about $3.2 trillion," thinks that U.S. stocks will return "8% a Year." The reason: "attractive valuations, stronger economic growth, shareholder-friendly management practices and more serious problems in other economies." These were the same reasons for a bullish stock market call in December 0f 2007, as stocks were "reasonably cheap" then relative to earnings.

Today's rally is wave v of Minuette wave (v) of Minute wave c (circle) of Minor 2. The above charts detail the wave labels. Based on the clearly waning and diverging upside momentum, which is a distinguishing attribute for a fifth wave in stocks, we thought the odds were low for another upward push. The market had other plans by surging at today's open, but the pattern of the rise is a very clear five waves. Today's 10,692.20 Dow high as at the .618 retracement of Minor wave 1. The very small sub-waves, as shown on the 15 minute chart, may be counted complete, although one could also label today's high as small-wave 3 (circle), with 4 (circle) down and 5 (circle) up still to come. The Fibonacci .625 (5/8) retracement is 10,702, while wave (ii) of v (circle) is 10,719, both resistance. Finally, 10,940 is the previous fourth wave high, which coincides with the .786 retracement of wave 1. This level is also where, within wave 2, wave c (circle) is a Fibonacci 1.618 times wave a (circle). It should be the maximum upward retracement prior to wave 3 down. With the diverging upward momentum, the odds fall on the side of the lower resistance versus the higher. A break of wave iv at 10,347.50 (1088 in the S&P) will indicate that wave 3 down is underway.

NYSE Ticks are still diverging as is the hourly MACD. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which issued its last short-term sell signal on April 13, closed at its lowest level since May 3, days before the big May 6 "flash crash."

This chart plots the S&P 500 above the 5-day moving average of the S&P 500-only advance/decline ratio. This a/d ratio excludes all non-operating companies, which permeate the NYSE a/d ratio. It's clear that the rally is narrowing, as the ratio has made a lower high and then dropped below zero. Today's S&P rise will carry the ratio back above zero because the takeaway number for the average is negative. But it will take several very strong a/d days in order for the 5-day ratio to exceed its July 26 high, which is lower than its July 13 high. That's certainly not impossible, but with the stock rise near the end of five waves up, the odds do not favor these two previous highs being exceeded. The S&P 500 sports resistance at 1132-1152. Its previous fourth-wave high is 1175.

The Dow Transports lagged the rally, which may be significant since the Transports have led the upward correction since early July. And the NASDAQ Composite as well as the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index, Value Line Index and MidCap 400 Index all remain beneath their highs on July 27. So today's advance was heavily concentrated in the biggest of blue-chip stocks, with a wide swath of the market lagging. When the generals charge the hill and the troops begin to peel away, the battle is nearing an end. All of these technical factors can persist, as they have at various times previously. The wave structure is the most important factor in determining a trend reversal and the subdivisions shown on our chart indicate that one is close.

Cheers
MM


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rash
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 09:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hola, Rudy

If Auntie follows Pollyanna north - and she will - it looks as if my initial pondering yesterday that she was making i and ii of the final wave might have been right.

As I said then ... there's a planetary line at 4616. I'd expect either the XJO or the XAO will hit it today or tomorrow.


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 10:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

Yep, that sounds about right.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 10:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Always good to hear from you and especially to hear what the folks at EWI are thinking. Basically they are following the scenario 1 pattern that I've been posting. For people who have a bit of difficulty following the verbal description of MM's post, here is a simple chart to show what he was saying.




EWI believe that Minor wave 2 is in it's final stages of completion. Once it does terminate their Minor wave 3 will commence. They suggest that you will know when it has started by it breaking down through the 1088 level.

My preferred scenario 3 is also nearing a top of a Minor wave but in my case it is a Minor wave B. It is interesting to note that we (the 4M's) have consistently said that a Minor wave was forming whereas the EWI folks believed that it had already formed on the 21st June. It is only since the current rally in the DOW looked like it was going to go higher than that previous peak that they changed their wave count. So looks like they are about a month and a half behind the 4M's in getting their wave count right.

Just goes to show that you can pay good money to get advice and yet people get it here for free. How's that for value for money?


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Here is the website to the ETF's I told you about.

www.direxionshares.com/etfs

Direxion have both bull & bear etf's.

The main US Domestic 3x BEAR ETF's are:

BGZ Daily Large Cap Bear 3x Shares
MWN Daily Mid Cap Bear 3x Shares
TZA Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares

The main US Sector 3x BEAR ETF's

FAZ Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
DRV Daily Real Estate Bear 3x Shares
TYP Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares

There are numerous International Equity ETF's and even Fixed Income-US Treasury.

They are purchased through CommSec International Trading.

Loading up tonight myself!

Bill


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gdd3
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 12:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry G/G's...

I seem to have lost my uploaded chart; but maybe this time...

Hi Guys/Gals...

Rudy, I know you prefer to concentrate on the XJO Physical but I thought I would attempt to show you what I think is the prefered EWC on the Futures SPI200 since the July 6th low. I didn't want to 'clutter-up' the chart with wave relationships that support such a count but you may want to varify.

In a nutshell, It appears to be tracing out a double zig-zag pattern(for the A.B.C ) from July 6th that also is in final stages...we could be doing a minuette wave(iv) now with the final up-leg early tomorrow(4602 is M/M). This all supports what I am interpreting is your favoured view on the XJO but with a slightly different count.

Now there is a chance that we have already completed the ABC at today's high of 4583; this would be confirmed if we breach below ~ 4518 level, right! to signal the bigger bear leg you are looking for has indeed confirmed as commenced.


application/pdf
presentation2.pdf (75.8 k)


Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Thanks for that. I've been out all morning but will have a closer look this afternoon and no doubt will have some questions for you.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 01:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Thanks for the chart and your EW count. Looks fine to me from a quick look.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Hi Rudy,

You are spot on mate. I didn't bother posting their analysis from friday night as they were calling the market down and to me the count didn't look finished either so I was reluctant to post something I didn't totally agree with.

You are right, I get more value from the collaboration of different minds/counts on this thread than I do for a subscriber service

Dolphin - great work there mate. Looks like the SPi wants to rally away from that 4518 area and the 4602 area will act like a magnet over the next 24 hours or so.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 03:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action in the Last 2 Days


There is always a danger in drilling down too far because you may end up counting the leaves instead of the waves however it is interesting to see the difference in patterns forming today versus that which formed yesterday.

Yesterday did look like there was consolidation taking place whereas today it looks like we have formed an interim top of some kind. We have formed a clear impulse wave down today and retraced in a corrective move.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 04:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My Scenario 3 S&P500 Wave Count


Whilst it is possible that the SPX may have topped last night I very much doubt that it has finished going up just yet. If I am correct then we may have Subminuette waves b and c to go before Minor wave B is completed.

The overall pattern for Minute wave circle c of Minor wave B is an ending diagonal.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 04:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This should be interesting tomorrow. Can the XJO close above the descending trend line that has acted as a ceiling since the 13th May 2010?





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 08:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 Running to Script

Naturally enough things can always change on a 'dime' but so far the major US index is running to script.

Yesterday I posted the following possible EW count.




The price action on the index last night formed the second wave retracement (wave b) and if things to to plane we should get the final thrust up tonight. This could quite possibly market the end of the current rally right on the 5th August that Lee was suggesting a couple of days ago.





The potential impact that this proposed price action on the S&P500 would have on our market would depend very much on where in the cycle the S&P500 closed at tomorrow morning. For example if the S&P500 made a dramatic thrust up early in the session to form the top and then spent the rest of the day giving up all of its gains would obviously have a different effect on our market than if it slowly made its way to the top and closed there.

It will be interesting to see if the traders (both local and overseas) of the XJO today attempt to anticipate tonights US market action later today in our market and drive up our market towards the close.

It is of course also entirely possible that the market already formed its top last night and is now heading down. Either way we are very close to a top.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 10:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

The SPX June high @ 1131.23 is a target but I would not be surprised if the final push tried to seek out the January high @ 1150.45.

It was interesting to see the action on some of the ETF Bear stocks last night. The perennial favorite TZA had a 10% price range, with a lot of ‘shorts’ getting positioned.

Like you, I feel we have one final leg up to complete this rally, so I will be joining the ‘shorts’ tonight to pick a good entry point.


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 10:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Is there a bullish count for the S&P500?

One of my readers asked me off line whether there was a bullish count for the S&P500. Whilst it is not a count that I agree with, there definitely is a bullish count for this index and this is shown in the chart below.




Those who do believe in the above count also believe that the rally from March 2009 to April 2010 was a Primary wave 1 and the correction from April 2010 to 1st July 2010 was a primary wave 2. They now believe that we are in a primary wave 3 which will obviously take the market to a significant top. Their wave count however will be invalidated if the July low is taken out and will really look shaky if the March 2009 level gets taken as would be expected under scenario 1 (Prechter).

I should stress that whilst I don't agree with this wave count, the main proponent of the wave count is an extremely good technical analyst and I do admire the work that he does. My main argument against the wave count is that during the first phase of the March 2009 rally, the first leg up was neither a leading diagonal or an impulse wave thereby in my opinion invalidating his wave counts.

(Message edited by rdumas on August 04, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 10:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good luck with your trade Bill.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 02:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

An extract from Trader Dan with some additional EW notes.

Could we have seen a completion of an ABC, and a set up for Gold to have a rally as the markets correct down?

$AUD remains strong, but if we have a pullback in the markets and the $AUD retreats, the ETF Gold might be worth watching!




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billt
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 03:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

A couple of other EW Counts on the SPX.

These are more on a 'Prechter type' base count, however the bearish completion looks the favorite to me.

The 1-5 count looks invalid, but the double abc's seem to work.

Initial target at 1131.23, and if that fails to hold on to 1150.45.





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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 04:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re the GOLD, that count is a definite possibility and yes once our index starts dropping it's guts ETF GOLD will start looking good.

I'm not sure who Trader Dan is but if they are his charts then he seems to know what he is doing. The bullish SPX EW count looks similar to mine with a slight difference in the labelling convention. This bullish count from an EW perspective is valid.

The bearish count whilst a bit different to mine leads to the same result so that one is also acceptable.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 04:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ETF GOLD

Hi Bill,

Looks like the POG is definitely on a run up.





And that last leg of the AUD has 5 waves completed. Looks like it may be a goer.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 04:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The XJO shied away from the overhead descending trendline today. Starting to look interesting.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 10:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 STILL RUNNING TO SCRIPT


Yesterday I suggested that the possible wave count for the S&P500 was the following.




I had expected that the following two waves would have possibly completed last night but that was not to be the case. We have progressed but as can be seen there is still the final C wave to go before we complete the pattern. We are getting very close now and I would suggest that by next week we will be heading down.





Whilst it is moving up agonisingly slowly you can rest assured that when the 'plug gets pulled' that the descent will be rapid.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 10:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Perhaps Fridays Payroll numbers may prove the answer to the commencement of the next pattern.

POG continues to shine at the moment. Our strengthening $AUD has flat lined ETF Gold for the moment.




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rdumas
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Dolphin contacted me privately last night and pointed out that there was still a bit more on the AUD before it topped. The completed 5 wave move that I saw yesterday was at a sub wave level. We can see from the chart below what we still have ahead of us.





I doubt that we will have to wait much longer now. By the way I suspect that I am probably labelling the chart one level too high but it should be internally consistent. What I mean by that is that the wave count should be pretty accurate within the chart itself whereas if viewed from a longer time frame the count may be at the wrong level.

(Message edited by rdumas on August 05, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 11:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy/Dolphin for that...

Dolphin's $AUD count looks more than plausible.

However, I'm not sure how Dolphin's $AUD 'wave v' could run against a free falling stock market?

How do you reconcile these potential EW anomalies when they occur Rudy?







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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Actually it's not Dolphin's chart (and EW count) but mine.....so if it's incorrect then the fault is all mine.

The chart is 'sort of' the culmination of his and my pondering's. If I read his email correctly he thought that there was still a 5th of a 5th wave left to go however when I had a closer look at the EW count I couldn't really reconcile that with the waves I was seeing.


Re reconciling potential differences. One possibility is that the EW count on one of conflicting indices may be incorrect. The other is we could get a failed 5th (actually a failed 'v') wave in the AUD. I will just have to look at what the patterns end up doing to see if there really was a conflict.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
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