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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through August 13, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through August 13, 2010

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rdumas
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Post Number: 3727
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 11:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Rather than stuff around trying to get a perfect entry into ETF GOLD I decided to start moving into the stock a few minutes ago. I may be a day or two out but who cares.....I certainly don't.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 11:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Starts Getting The Sqeeze


The XJO has once again tested the overhead descending trendline and is getting squeezed by the ascending trendline as well. The next day or two should be interesting.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 12:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ETF GOLD

Based on Andrew's cycles analysis charts ETF GOLD definitely has more downside to go in the medium term but we do expect a counter trend rally to occur in the short term. The EW chart at this stage is not really all that clear but I am basing my decision to enter at this stage purely on Andrew's cycle analysis.

I will be monitoring it carefully over the coming days to see if I can identify a clearer pattern than is now the case.

We can see from the 15 minute chart that ETF GOLD has recently gone through a consolidation phase and I am expecting it to break out of that phase in the near future. It may have already done so but on the other hand it could be just fooling me.




As pointed out in previous posts, the POG has continued to rally whilst the AUD has been doing likewise. This has had the effect of subduing any significant move up in the ETF GOLD. With the anticipated fall in the AUD (on my part) however, I suspect that this will change things in the next few days. In the meantime (for the above reasons) I feel that the downside risk in the short term is reasonably low hence my entry with about 50% of my anticipated final investment.

If we do break out of the current channel then the $128.40 level looks like the next hurdle to jump.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 01:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Cat Lady,
Last week bought a swag of WHC on a rumour they may be going the way of CEY. They have jumped since then and I'm waiting to see what happens. If it's a takeover then I'm in the money, if not....shot down in flames. Time will tell.

Eugenio


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 01:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

What I forgot to say is that I have a stop-loss on the ETF GOLD trade of $125.50. The previous low was $125.54.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 02:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good Afternoon BillT and Rudy,

Firstly, thanks Rudy, for clarifying that your latest chart was a 'composite' of my very short-term count view I sent you and your next degree higher one(at the time). To help clarify Billt, I had sent an hourly chart to Rudy just after our market close and was referring to a 5th of a 5th from the early July double bottom and basis this had 'targets' of 9180, 9232(perfect balance) or even 9317(minor possibility). Now in hindsight, the latter two may come into play if this count(as rudy has illustrated) above is correct. Regardless, we are really in sync with our views on the $A nearing a 'swing-point'.

As for EFT GOLD, my charts below(void of EWC's but suggests some basic Gann squaring) also suggests we are at or already have reached a significant swing-low in Price(P). I have always liked Fibo P.& T.(or Gann's 0.66...2/3rds) squarings on the $A(second only to the SwissF and the NikkeiDow) and some of these fall in line with EFT Gold as illustrated. The July 28th low was a significant low in P.& T. but also we had T. falling on AUG 3rd. Now whilst we have had a price movement response, 'structurally' to this point seems a little unconvincing so just may be we have another little let down(either a short-term double bottom{Aug6/7} or even to the $123 area{strong trend line support but also the 0.786 P.& T. level but abt 15Aug. or as late as 22Aug.). This could all tie into what Rudy suggested yesterday(I think) that if we get a sudden 'shudder'(-ve move) in global stock markets EFT Gold will probably(initially) fall as well. Because of this, I'm personally holding off entry for the time being.

Just one 'Traders' take on a particular 'stock', Ok! Good luck to all over the next few day's.



Cheers
Dolphin


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billt
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 03:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Thanks for sharing all that information.

Of the two components of ETF Gold, the $AUD is the more predicable. For that reason, I feel if the markets do take a trip south, the 'aussie' will pull back pretty quickly.

I am less comfortable with the POG side of the equation. If the market correction gets under way, everything may be sold off, including gold. Gold seems to trade one day like a 'commodity', the next like a 'currency', and has days where it fights the 'deflation/inflation' story line and is the 'flight to safety' asset of choice. I'm not too sure which is the 'Real Gold'? Maybe all of them?

However, I feel that any softening of the POG will be outpaced by the weakening $AUD.

From an EW point of view, an ABC correction may have completed on the POG chart, and the price has broken the down trend.

I am set with some ETF Gold, as I feel the trip south will be soon upon us.

thanks for your input Dolphin,

Bill


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billt
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 07:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Overnight, the Ending Diagonal on the SPX is still playing out.

An over-throw for the final wave to 1031-1050 range looks the favorite. After that an immediate reversal followed by hard selling.

Fridays Payroll numbers now look the key to the trigger.


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rdumas
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 10:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You are spot on. This baby needs to have that one last leg up to complete the pattern. It's frustrating some traders playing the waiting game but as Randall mentioned in his thread, this period will give you the unexpected so that it can suck in as many impatient traders as possible.

We can see from the chart below that the BB's have squeezed in at this time which indicates that a strong move will result. As my reading of the %R and Slow Stochastic indicates that this move will be in the upward direction it plays right into the expected (my expectation anyway) pattern. The move up could be larger than most people expect but I have no doubt in my mind that it will lead to the completion of the pattern either tonight or early next week.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 10:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

I agree with you, according to the chart as presented by you, the Bollinger Bands are tightening and it is very likely, that the break out direction is upwards. On top of that if it break the previous high as shown,the signs are bullish in the short term.That is how I see it, though we may have retracement along the way.

Peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 11:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

Nice to hear from you again and I know you love BB's and use them a lot in your analysis so it's good to hear your confirmation. Using traditional TA it certainly would look bullish but from and EW perspective the higher probability is that it would be completing a pattern that would cause a strong move down.

We'll let the market decide which of the two methodologies is right. Remember QBE.

I don't know if you recall our last telephone conversation when I suggested that QBE would go down to test the $15.00 level. We've been down to $16.25 so far. I now think that $14.28 is a possibility.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 11:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy, I don't have any more of QBE share. Maybe I should keep an eye on it, especially if it goes down to $14, it may be a buy then. I remember IAG had one stage invested over 35% in equities to take advantage of the buoyant stock market then. With interest rate at an all time low in the US and not that much higher in the UK, perhaps QBE should modify their strategy to adapt to the changes.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 11:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

If my EW pattern plays out then September will be the time to buy into QBE. I would keep my powder dry until then. If I am correct you will get a really big run up from then.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 11:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting Pattern on the XJO


Please note that the labelling on the chart below has nothing to do with EW counts. It is purely to identify similar points on a pattern. What I find interesting is the similarity (not identical) in the patterns.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 11:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wow, talking about getting squeezed.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Friday, August 06, 2010 - 05:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everybody!!
Just would like to post a chart on the SPX with some potential trendlines. These are not entirely accurate on this chart but on an accurate chart the top line is sloping downwards around the 1140 mark as of tonight. Basically should test this trendline to find the high. I'm going to do a W.D.Gann & say "The high should be no more than 1142 & will happen tonight , otherwise my calculations are incorrect"
spy c


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rdumas
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Saturday, August 07, 2010 - 05:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The VIX warning of Volatility Ahead


I'll skip the 1000 words and just give you the picture.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010 - 08:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Key Fibonacci Levels and Turning points




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010 - 10:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Early Morning Price Action on XJO

The XJO price action this morning is very interesting.





We appear to have completed a corrective wave followed by an impulse wave rally. The opening price action this morning has spiked down with an impulsive move down and no doubt will be followed by a counter rally up. This counter rally could retrace most of the move down (many wave 2's do this) but if the move down was truly impulsive then once the rally is completed then we should move down in a wave 3.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010 - 10:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Maybe not so


What looked like an impulse wave down in the previous post may not have been the case. When we look at the 1 minute chart it does appear that even though it looed impulsive it may in fact have only been a 3 wave move followed by a 5 wave move up.





With this sort of volatility and the inability to drill down further I would at this stage call it indeterminate.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010 - 02:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Starting to really look very interesting


Well, we've broken through the ascending trend line but we need to clearly close below it to be sure that this is the real deal.





Once we get through the 4480 we know that the down move has really started.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010 - 04:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The evidence is really starting to mount that the top may be in


The Australian dollar tends to be in synchronism with the XJO on most occasions and hence a weakening in this currency is also a signal of problems for the Australian market. Whilst it is still early days yet, the signs are clear that troubles are looming.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 12:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Assuming the high on the 9th completed the ABC rally on the SPX, where do you think we are on the EW Count? Lots of rule breaking on this count, but it puts us in a wave 3 for tonight!

Thoughts?




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billt
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 01:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dead cat bounce on SPX?

Wave 1's start out innocent-looking enough, like a little pullback... then the would-be bargain hunters come in thinking they're buying a dip, when they're actually buying into the beginning of a wave 3

For those playing the shorts, an over extended wave 2, most often results in a lesser dead cat bounce on wave 4. In other words holding through wave 4 might not be quite as painful.

XJO looks like it is getting some speed up...

What do you think Rudy?


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 01:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Assuming that we did get the top for the SPX Minute wave circle c then I believe that the count below is a reasonable one to assume. As you can see, it is not clear that we have completed subminuette wave ii so there may be one more minor wave up before we enter the first subminuette iii wave.






I agree with your comments in your post 62 Bill.

As for the comment about wave 2's usually being between 37% and 67% it is true that those level retracements are more common however retracements to the 88.6% Fibonacci level do occur quite often so I wouldn't be put off by that earlier comment.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 02:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

Your EW counts are always so much more obviously better!

I'll keep a look out on SPX tonight for the first subminuette iii wave to complete around 1083?

Then a quick subminuette iv wave, then subminuette v wave to terminate perhaps at the support @ 1056, which is also the 61.8% fib.

A wave 2 on Thursday, then a wave 3 for Randall's 'Black Friday' event to take out 1010!


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 03:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bill,

It certainly is looking like the real deal is underway. Here's one for the XJO.




At this stage it still looks like Minor wave B was a Flat pattern and we would expect an impulse wave or ending diagonal for Minor wave wave C however I am still keeping open the possibility that we may also form a Triangle pattern instead(ABCDE). The reason that it could be a Triangle is that Minute wave circle c looks like a 3 wave move rather than a 5 wave move. At this stage though I do not favour the Triangle pattern scenario.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 03:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





what you think on this one Rud'meister?


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 03:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

That count for the abc}} corrective wave looks suspect to me. a only appears to have 2 waves in it.

That does look corrective but I would give it the following count (black labels).





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 04:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ETF GOLD

I did a bit of day trading on my ETF GOLD as I expect a bit of a pull back tomorrow before a move up on Friday. I have exited my trade and will go back in tomorrow afternoon.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 04:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Don't be away too long




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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 04:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I definitely won't be. I suspect that the market will have a one day bounce tomorrow and then crash on Friday sometime. I should be back in sometime tomorrow.

Having said that, watch it go up to $150 tonight.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 04:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I was going to say that myself!

Hey oh E'Dubya wise one - here is my bizarre looking TZA Short ETF. It has gone up 11% since the bottom just days ago. Can you make any sense out of this crazy pattern? What's your target on Mr TZA?




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billt
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 05:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



re 3752

If that count is correct we are in ii of iii, with iii of iii happening anytime soon.

If the $AUD crashes with the market collapse, GOLD will take off....

What am I missing? This wasn't a SC moment was it?


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billt
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 05:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Here's my tally:

AUDUSD
Wave i completed 90.5 on 10 August
Wave ii completed 91.3 on 11 August
Wave iii underway?

XAUUSDO
Wave i completed $1210 on 6 August
Wave ii completed $1190 on 10 August
Wave iii underway? wave ii of iii about to terminate?

GOLD etf
Wave i completed $127.8 on 4 August
Wave ii completed $127.2 on 5 August
Wave iii underway?

SPX
Wave i completed 1112
Wave ii completed 1127
Wave iii underway?

XJO
Wave i underway?

TZA/FAZ/DRV Bear ETF's
Wave iii underway!!


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010 - 08:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Have just logged in for a few minutes and because I have other things to do I will only answer the ETF GOLD question now. The reason for me believing that ETF GOLD will have a rest or give some of its profits back for a day or so is because I believe that the XJO is nearing completion of its wave (i) as per my post 3750.




If I am correct and XJO does have a bounce for wave (ii) then I would expect an opposite action on ETF GOLD. Normally any corrective move on the XJO after completion of wave (i) would lead to a move to somewhere in the price range of wave iv the previous impulse wave. I don't know when you feel wave (i) would terminate but I think that it should happen tomorrow.

This does not mean that ETF GOLD cannot move in the same direction of the XJO but I suspect that it would not do so.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 08:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



After a 2.8% fall on the SPX overnight, I would think the XJO will drop to at least 3450 on Thursday. Wave iii of i may extend into a five wave sub level setup today.

The SPX tonight could see a considerable relief wave ii rally, so that may play out late on the XJO today.

However, 'Black Friday' should produce a wave iii biblical collapse on Wall Street and a wild 'flash crash' type scenario over the next few weeks.

I'm staying long on my Bear ETF's for the entire trip south. TZA has already jumped 24% from its low.

I am planning to do the same on GOLD, unless POG does a u-turn.


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billt
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 08:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry 4350!!


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 08:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Well done on you bear ETFs. You should make a motza.

Looks like the wave (ii) will be extending today so I miss out on some additional profit on my ETF GOLD trade but with the amount I had invested in that trade I am happy with the profit safely locked away in a bank vault.

As for where the market may go today I think that an Astro chart that Randall sent me at 3pm yesterday may give us a clue. I have embedded the chart in a Word document so that you can get up close and personal to the chart and read it with excellent (hopefully) resolution. You will note that the North T Node price line (orange line) is located at near the 4386 level. That is where I would expect the market to either close at or bounce from. I have not shared that view with Randall before posting this so he may have another view.


application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document
astro chart of xjo 110810.docx (413.5 k)



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 10:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A profit is a profit, so well done on picking the bottom on GOLD.

POG is finding stubborn resistance at the usd$1210 level. Perhaps the Fed is buying at that level to support the Treasury issue. I feel the price continues to be very manipulated.

I have no doubt the $AUD will drop to <80c in this correction, but as for POG charging north? We need to get Andrew back from Greece!

Yes, my Bear ETF's are in full flight heading north - TZA has most of my cash, and a smaller percentage spread over the rest.


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 10:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I agree with you about needing Andrew back in town. It will be great to get his latest cycle analysis for ETF GOLD. In the mean time you were asking for an EW count for TZA. Here is the best I can do at short notices.



If I am correct with my timing I would suggest that Minute wave circle z should top out somewhere around mid September.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 10:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

Latest from EW;

The recovery from the July low is complete and the next leg of the bear market has begun. A sharp decline to new lows on the year should be the next big development.

Wednesday's decline is compelling evidence that the countertrend rally from the July low has ended and that wave 3 down has begun. The decline occurred on no significant fundamental news event, so it appears that we are witnessing a shift in trader psychology which is exactly what the wave structure has been telling us to expect. The deteriorating technicals of the recent advance combined with the very bearish ending diagonal or rising wedge pattern have set the stage for a powerful decline well below the July lows in wave 3. With the market cooperating with our preferred count we need to remain patient and allow the expected decline play out and avoid the temptation to overtrade the short term. If wave 3 down is indeed under way it will be weeks or months before it ends.

An ending diagonal triangle (see EWP, p.36) counts as complete, and prices are now declining impulsively. Prices are still in a small-degree third wave down near term, so expect further selling before any temporary low forms. We have no interest in trying to identify short-term lows within a much larger degree decline, rather we'll be concentrating on identifying the tops of three-wave rallies which would facilitate additional selling opportunities. Wave 3 down should move well below the July low at 9614.

As the market has advanced from the July low to this week's high momentum and sentiment indicators have moved from oversold to overbought territory. Despite the sizable decline of the last two days, the position of these indicators says that prices will have to move significantly lower before these indicators will warn of a low of any significance.

Wednesday's gap down below Friday's 2253.90 low and the diagonal uptrend line is strong evidence that the trend has turned down. We had been allowing for a possible move above the June peak at 2341, but with the decisive move lower we can conclude that wave 2 ended with a significantly truncated wave c (circled). If correct, the combination of this "failure" and the ending diagonal sets the stage for a powerful move to new lows on the year rather quickly.

The impulsive upturn in the [U.S. Dollar Index] is good confirming evidence that an important low has formed. After five waves up and three waves down from last year's low, prices bottomed on Friday within the 79.51-81.44 support range. The Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) hit 6% bulls last week, pushing the 10-day average down to 10% currently, both of which are lower readings than the ones seen at the low last November. Friday's decline was a thrust out of a triangle, and with the sharp advance from that low we can be confident that a trend change has occurred. A third wave up is under way near term so prices are likely to work moderately higher to complete an initial five-wave advance. A buying opportunity would be presented on a three-wave pullback.

Friday's post-triangle thrust in the [Euro] marked an important top. Prices have reversed in impulsive fashion and are working on an initial five-wave decline. Expect some additional selling over the next few days as waves four and five unfold. After five waves down, a three-wave rally would present a good selling opportunity probably some time next week. The bigger picture wave count calls for a sizable third wave decline headed well below the June low at 1.1876. It's worth mentioning again that the DSI hit 86% bulls Friday, which is the highest reading of the year and indicative of excessive optimism, consistent with the bearish view.

Friday's high in spot [Gold] is still a good candidate for the top of an expanded flat wave 2, though so far prices have yet to turn down impulsively. A break of the $1177 area and then the recent $1156.55 low would indicate that wave 3 down had indeed begun. If wave 2 up is not complete prices could push a bit higher into the "ideal" target range of $1209.75-$1233.00. Bigger picture, we are looking for at least a larger correction of the five-wave advance from the $680 low in October 2008 shows. The initial downside target surrounds the wave (4) low at $1043.80, but there remains the strong potential for an even larger decline.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 10:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Bill,

How good are those Astro charts of Randall? I said that the market would bounce off the North T Node line at 4386 and it bounced off 4388 instead. That's good enough for me. The Astro charts prove their worth once again.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 10:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for that Rudy,

I knew there was a fistful of wxyz in there somewhere...my first attempt looked like alphabet soup!

TZA is 3x bear of the Russell 2000. To achieve a 61.8% fib retrace, the 2000 will need to pull back 26.11% from its previous high. Three times that is 78.33%. TZA's low at 28.78, should produce a high c.$51.32 for wave z.

When you have time: Any other EW targets that you can see? Does an extended trendline from w to y have any relevance?


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 10:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Well done with your short trades mate. Isn't it great to have a fuzzy crystal ball called Elliott Wave principle to guide you in your investments. Can you believe that there are still some people who still believe that it's equivalent to tea leaf reading? Oh well, we'll leave them to their biases.

Whilst I don't agree with Prechter's primary count on either the market or gold I do agree with his shorter term views that both are destined to go down. I also agree that the POG may yet still go up a little bit further before it too heads south for a while. Once it does head south then it will obviously have an effect on ETF GOLD as predicted by Andrew's cycle analysis in spite of what will be a plummeting AUD.

Thanks again for keeping us up to date on what Prechter does think about the current situation as it is always interesting to know what his views are.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 10:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





GO ASTRO BOY!


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market_mad
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Hi Rudy,

Thanks mate - I have to give you kudos as well though because I don't think I'd be making this money without your help. It is VERY MUCH appreciated!

This thread has been a great source of information sharing since you decided to start it up and I am enjoying everyone's input on it - particularly yours and Bill.

Cheers mate

MM


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rdumas
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 08:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Minute wave (i) may be completing

The slowing rate of momentum of decline is pointing to the possibility that Minute wave (i) may be coming to a completion. If so we can expect a Minute wave (ii) rally of some kind.




As the banking sector is extremely weak I suspect that the rally may be on the back of stocks like BHP so a short term play on that stock could pay off.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 08:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The S&P500 Puzzle


It's probably because I haven't been out for my morning walk and enjoyed my "after walk coffee" but at this stage the S&P500 poses a bit of a puzzle. I'll let my chart show you what I mean.





At this stage I have a leaning towards the labelling without the "?" against it being correct which would mean that it's possible that v may have completed last night.

If we get a wave v forming on the XJO later today and a strong move up in the afternoon then the above suggestion is probably correct.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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hi Rudy

SPX

Your post looks solid.....

The only other possibility is that this is a nine-waver?

The overnight low was the completion of wave i of iii, and we are completing wave ii of iii.

Astro Boy tells us we are in a 'bad zone'.

Retail Sales out before the open on Friday on Wall Street. Might be nasty. It's Black Friday...


GOLD

If this isn't wave iii of an impulse wave, then what is it Rudy?



 
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