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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through August 18, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through August 18, 2010

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billt
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 09:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here's more!




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billt
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 09:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The above charts should have been labelled XAUUSDO, These charts are NOT the Gold ETF:

Wave i completed usd$1210 on 6 August
Wave ii completed usd$1190 on 10 August
Wave iii underway?







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billt
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 09:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XAUUSDO

Further to my Post 67, and my posts above, perhaps we could be in:

Grand Supercycle III
Supercycle (III)
Cycle III

Drilling down to the current action, could we be in:

Minor 3
Minute iii
Minuette i of iii complete

If we are.....h'mmmm......'all in'!!

Have your latte and have a think!


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rdumas
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 11:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I don't have any time to go into detail as I have to go out for the rest of the day however the following is what I believe is happening with GOLD.




As I mentioned in a previous post Andrew and I believe that we are in a long term bull market in GOLD. As you can see in the above chart we are in wave 3 of the GOLD cycle. This means that in our view gold will continue to trend up in the coming years.

Even though we look as though gold is about to take off by the charts you are providing, they do not line up with what Andrew's cycle analysis shows. As I have said quite a few times, whilst we were expecting a move up in a counter trend move, this would only be of a relatively short time duration after which the wave c down move will take over.




I have heard that Prechter also believes that gold should top out soon (I think he believes it will be anywhere between the current value and $1233). Now once again, he and I have a different idea of the medium to long term view of this index however we both agree that the current rally will be short lived.

That's not to say that either one of us is correct as there are many who (like you) believe that we are in a wave 3.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 12:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With conflicting EW ideas, I guess you just need to stay with the trend until it breaks down?

Current impulse wave iii looks underway, so we will see where it ends?

Prechter has called POG wrong for decades, I doubt he will change his mind now!




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rdumas
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Saturday, August 14, 2010 - 03:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

We are coming to a very interesting juncture with ETF GOLD.

There is a confluence of Fibonacci levels just above the present price level and we are coming to the top of the descending channel.

With the market getting ready for another move down and you believing the stock is in a wave 3 at some level, those overhead resistances should be sliced through like a hot knife through butter. But will it happen?







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, August 14, 2010 - 04:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

Thanks for the Wrap

SPX

Could a 9 wave option play out, with i of iii @ 1076.69, and ii of iii just completing?

If we are seeing a 5th wave, very possible the majority of the 5th could be put in during after-hours trading, and SPX open gap down, and quickly reverse to start the 2nd wave up.

However, if the SPX continues to dive lower towards Astro Boy’s 1049 (also Fib Fan level), we might be in a 9 waver?

On the SPX we have a bearish pennant that has formed on the 15 minute chart since 11 August.

We also have been unable to clear the overhead resistance and a reversal on the EMA(50)

MACD & Full STO are both showing further bearish signs.

$NYSI Summation Index now has three red bars, and is accelerating downwards, a very good sign that the trend is indeed down

The Russell $RUT had a much more bearish day on Friday making lower lows, and closing at the low of the day – interestingly it topped back at the end of July earlier than the SPX, so it may be a stronger indicator. You may want to have a look at that on the 15 minute chart to see if it is showing something more than SPX?

Astro Boys numbers on Pollyanna are: 1049, 1022, 990, 957, 932, & 900. 990 & 900 are the stronger of the set. Perhaps wave iii to 990, and wave v to 900?

POG

I’ll hang in the ETF Gold for now. It looks like a wave iii to me! Perhaps it will rocket if the SPX drops again pretty quickly, or if we have some fireworks in the Middle East?.


ISRAEL v IRAN

"Russia's nuclear agency said Friday that it will load fuel into Iran's first nuclear power plant next week, defying U.S. calls to hold off the start of the launch. Rosatom spokesman Sergei Novikov said Friday that uranium fuel shipped by Russia will be loaded into the Bushehr reactor on Aug. 21"


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rdumas
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Saturday, August 14, 2010 - 05:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Whilst your suggestion re the SPX may be possible I personally can't see a 5 wave impulse for your i of iii wave.

Barry sent me the full story on that Israel and Iran issue. Things should get pretty interesting between now and the 21st. If that doesn't cause a crash then maybe Labour winning the election may do so.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, August 14, 2010 - 05:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Having a problem with posting a chart.

The 1/2 occurred very early on -

1120 wave i
1125 wave ii
1089 wave iii
1094 wave iv
1077 wave v

What ya think?


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rdumas
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 09:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Your question as usual was an excellent one so I have gone to a lot of trouble to discuss it below.

I think that the count that you have proposed is the one below.




Your comment "Could a 9 wave option play out, with i of iii @ 1076.69, and ii of iii just completing?" was what confused me because you did not differentiate between the levels that you were discussing. I think you meant to say that "with i of (iii) @ 1076.69, and ii of (iii) just completing?".

Anyway, assuming that you did mean the above then the difference between the above count and mine can be compared. Refer to my proposed count below.




Note that I have changed the level of my labelling from the chart I put in my market wrap so that we are using the same level labelling. Effectively the difference between the two proposed counts is that in your count you are suggesting that wave (iii) is extending whereas in my count I have assumed that wave (iii) has already completed.

There is no doubt that there is a high likelihood that wave (iii) is extending so both counts are valid at this stage.

In your count the next step in the pattern is the formation of wave iii of (iii). This wave would normally be larger than wave i. As an example we could expect a range for wave iii to be about 161.8% of the range of wave i (ie around 78 points).

In my count the next step in the pattern would be the formation of wave (v) of circle i. After the relatively large range of wave (iii) we would expect the range of wave (v) to be similar in range to wave (i) (ie around 17 points).

So we can see that a drop of around 78 points early next week may validate your count and a smaller drop of around 17 points may validate my count. The difference in price action would be markedly different. I am not suggesting of course that these drops would occur in one day.

In the event of Israel bombing Iran's nuclear reactor early next week it would be easy to imagine your count being proven to be correct.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 11:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

Thank for doing that – that was exactly what I was mulling over.

The lack of volume in the July Rally, along with the size and velocity of the drop last week, along with the negative bearish sentiment in the US, gave me a thought that we might see a much quicker trip south. It’s the ‘Bearish of Bearish’ scenarios, but one which I guess we can’t ignore.

Needless to say, I have not seen ‘my count’ posted anywhere else so if it comes to fruition I can be ‘Mr E’Dubya for the Week’!!

The 78 point correction would take the SPX to c1008, which is right on the previous low at 1010.

SPX targets at the ‘Astro’ supports @ 990 & 900 could then form the termination for the final wave 3 and 5 action.

Thanks for putting the effort to do that – it makes it a lot clearer.

I favor your count, but let’s see what happens in the Persian Gulf.

The US 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain, across the Persian Gulf 300kms to the south of the Iranian Reactor. With a US Carrier Strike Group, Amphibious Ready Group, Expeditionary Strike Group, and other ships and aircraft with almost 15,000 people serving afloat and 1,000 support personnel ashore in Bahrain, plus the army and air force in Iraq, let’s hope things don’t get totally out of hand.

The Jerusalum Post Today:

“If the Israelis reach the firm conclusion that Obama will not, under any circumstances, launch a strike on Iran, then the countdown will begin for a unilateral Israeli attack,”

“the Pentagon has told the US Central Command, which is responsible for the greater Middle East, not to shoot down Israeli aircraft if they invade Iraqi airspace”.

“Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu waits to see if the West’s nonmilitary methods can stop Iran…”

“Iran is rumored to be helping Hizbullah obtain new weapons, Italian daily Corriere Della Sera reported on Wednesday evening.”

At least Rudy we have an EW Count to deal with the possibility! let's call it "The Nuclear Reactor' Scenario...


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rdumas
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 12:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Absolutely mate. If your count is correct (and there is every likelihood that it could be) then you win the award of the week.

In the mean time just to throw some light on my EW count for the POG here are my thoughts.

First for the long term. As you can see I believe that the POG in the longer term will be bullish.




Just looking at the same chart from a slightly shorter time frame.



And now a medium term view of the same thing.






Now if your count is correct then the previous high of $1265.05 would be taken out big time. If my count is correct then we could even get to that high an perhaps a bit higher in the case of an Expanding Flat pattern but more than likely we won't take out the high and we may even be close to the top now. Now it is possible that we may only currently be forming wave circle a of wave B at this time so after a retracement it could go higher.

As I like to take one step at a time I would go for a completion of wave B happening at this time and we would be heading south soon to form wave C at this time.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 01:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy

POG

Another great piece of weekend homework!

Does the recent price action look like a Wave B? It looks very impulsive? Does that tick the box? Where along the path do you think the count is in the minute/minuette level under your scenario?? I noted that we could be still only currently be forming wave circle a of wave B at this time. What's your preferred count?

Under my count we are in a Minor 3/Minute iii/Minuette iii event - so if it doesn't go 'ballistic' soon your count might be favorite.

If POG doesn't pick up steam, I may sell out at the top of this pattern, and get my cash into the Bear/Bull 'Russell 2000' Etf's...bit more fun! TZA has made me 33% since the recent high - and if 'The Nuclear Reactor' event happens - these etfs could double.

Off to grab a coffee before the bombs start...


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rdumas
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 02:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

As I wrote in my original Elliott Wave lessons, it is very difficult to tell the difference between a Zigzag and the first 3 waves of an impulse wave as they both have impulse waves for waves 1 and 3. The other thing to keep in mind is the fact that unlike equities, the 5th wave of an impulse wave for a commodity is quite often the longest wave. So even the 3rd leg of a Zigzag can have quite a large range because of this 5th wave expansion. For this reason, you will never know if you have a Zigzag in a commodity until it turns down (and keeps going down) after the 3rd leg.

The following chart represents where I think we are at present. I have not shown an expanded 5th wave in this chart.




Note that if wave circle c is 61.8% of the range of wave circle a then it will terminate at $1233.26. If wave circle c is 100% of the range of wave circle a then it will terminate at $1243.67.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 04:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

POG

Thank you for reminding me about zigzags again

$1243 would complete the right shoulder of a Head & Shoulders pattern starting in May, which could give your ABC pattern something to get negative about. The previous wave v went up c.$30, so it makes a reasonable target.

Alternatively your circle c could be the completion of my wave i of (iii) on my alternative count, which could be the start of something quite decisive. There is always a 'carrot' in a zigzag!

I'll hang in for wave v, then sell out of my GOLD. Hopefully the $AUD comes under a bit of pressure before I sell.

If my iii of (iii) gets going it will be pretty obvious, and I'll buy back in. If your count prevails, I'll wait until Wave (2) gets going.

Thanks for your views Rudy - always appreciated

Bill


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rdumas
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 04:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

My pleasure mate. I must admit that if it wasn't for Andrew's cycle analysis I would have the same bullish view as you. I wait with bated breath.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 01:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

Latest from EW;

We had been discussing an upward wedge-shaped pattern that started on July 1-2, which, when complete, would mark the termination of the advance from these lows as well as the larger upward flat correction that started in late May. The Friday, August 6, STU said: "The entire upward correction either ended this week or should do so with one final upward push in the first day or two of next week."

The DJIA rose to 10,719.90 at 1:00 pm on Monday (1129.24 in the S&P) thereby completing all of the rally's subdivisions and hence, marking a top. The next day, Tuesday, stocks gapped lower at the open and then rallied back to fill most of the gap before pulling back into the close. The near-term pattern was clear and the technical condition of the market was compelling enough so that after the close that day (Aug. 10), Robert Prechter issued an EWT Interim Report stating, "The stock market has been in an upward correction for over two months. Evidence is quite strong that the rally is over." Wednesday, August 11, was a big down day for stocks, starting with a large downward gap at the open. The entire structure from Monday's high comprises the first subdivisions of Minor wave 3 down, which should be a strong and prolonged decline. In that night's STU, Robert Kelley updated the market's wave structure and said, "A sharp decline to new lows on the year should be the next big development." All three major stock indexes — the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ — are now down for the year. This overview brings us to the present.

In terms of Elliott waves, Primary wave 3 (circle) down started on April 26 at 11,258 in the DJIA. Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave 3 (circle) bottomed on May 25 at 9774.50. After tracing out an upward expanded flat (see EWP, p.46), with the final up leg unfolding as the aforementioned wedge, Minor wave 2 topped Monday at 10,719.90, which also marks the right shoulder of the head-and-shoulders topping pattern that we discussed (The EWT Interim shows the DJIA tracing out a double three, but the implications are exactly the same). Minute wave i (circle) of Minor wave 3 is developing (it might be Minuette wave (i), but it does not matter for now) and the pattern does not appear complete. The above charts show the subdivisions (the short-term form in the S&P is identical). The countervailing move following the end of a "wedge," is sharp and swift and carries "at least back to the level where it began," (EWP, p.39) which in this case is the July 1-2 low. This level is 9614.30 in the DJIA and 1010.91 in the S&P. But, according to the forecast for a Primary wave 3 (circle) selloff, attaining these levels should be just the start of the decline. In other words, the stock market remains a long, long way from a significant market bottom.

The important thing at this point in the declining process is to not over analyze the move. In other words, if we try to forecast every little twist and turn of the decline we might wind up losing our way in the trees and not seeing the forest, which is that a third-wave decline is underway. This particular third wave carries a large downside potential, as do both of the head-and-shoulders patterns discussed in the April EWT and August EWFF. Robert stated it well Wednesday night when he said, "We have no interest in trying to identify short-term lows within a much larger-degree decline; rather we'll be concentrating on identifying the tops of three-wave rallies, which will facilitate additional bearish opportunities." To use a metaphor: Don't try and catch a falling javelin.

The 8-9 day turning pattern (trading days) that we've previously discussed continues to denote near-term reversal points in the market. The resolution of the last time period coincided with Monday's top. The next 8-9 day turn occurs on August 19-20, which happens to include the upcoming options expiration (Aug. 20). As we've said, these patterns come and go without notice, so they remain a highly speculative aspect of our forecasts and should never be used in and of themselves to indicate a reversal. But, if the near-term wave structure and accompanying technical conditions suggest that stocks are nearing a turn, these dates may provide guidance as to when the turn will occur.

To sum up: stocks have completed the upward correction that we've discussed for the past month and a half. The decline that started Monday should be swift and sharp, quickly drawing prices to the July 1-2 lows. The head-and-shoulder pattern that started in January 2010 (see August EWFF) targets the area surrounding 8000. The head-and-shoulders pattern that started in January 2000 (see April EWT) targets the area "below 3000." The next several months should be "down hard," as should the next several years. While not expected, any rally that carries above Monday's highs would change the short-term wave structure.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 02:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

As usual, many thanks for the EWI update for the US indices.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 02:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks MM for posting Prechter's latest

keep 'em coming

Bill


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rdumas
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 04:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible EW count for XJO


The 3 wave move that has taken place since Thursday is clearly a corrective move against the trend of the decline that started on the 10th August.





On that basis then it is reasonable to assume that the move from the peak on the 9th August to the low on the 12th August completed a wave 1 at some level and that we are now in the midst of or may have possibly even completed a wave 2 at some level as well. For the time being I will label them at the Minute level.

Once the second wave pattern is complete we should commence a downward move of at least the same range as the first wave and quite likely an even greater range. What often happens is that the 3rd wave in an impulse will terminate at the 100% extension of the 1st wave. That would give a target at around the 4165.5 level.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 05:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

It is interesting that the XJO has set up a very conventional corrective move, whilst the SPX has not as yet had the energy to bother with one. Perhaps the SPX will follow the XJO in tonight's trade.

As you suggest, the XJO seems set to target the previous low of c. 4175 for wave circle 3, which may deliver wave circle 5 at the anticipated bottom at c 3850.

EWI noted for the SPX that "the next 8-9 day turn occurs on August 19-20, which happens to include the upcoming options expiration (Aug. 20)", which can only be a further bearish outcome.

It may be a busy week, even if Israel fails to strike!

cheers

Bill


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 08:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BEAR CAUTION

Hi Bill,

Further to my post 3770 on Sunday where I suggested how to identify which wave count was correct (either yours or mine). If mine was correct then we would form a wave (v) which would be around 17 points in range.

Well guess what happened last night? Even though the SPX ended up flat, during the early trade we actually had a drop which from the termination point for wave "e" of Minuette wave (iv) was around 16 points.





Now I could be wrong of course but I don't think that I am. But what does this mean? Well, it still means that the next move down would be a Minute wave circle iii as the next wave which should be a bit of a doozy. Based on a conservative estimate of a wave circle i extension of 100% we should end up somewhere near the 1010 level on completion of this wave.

All this means is that there will be a bit of a move up to complete Minute wave circle ii for a day or so. It will possibly attempt to close that gap at around 1089.47.

It could also mean that we get a bit of a kick up in the XJO today. If we get wave equality between the first and third leg of the corrective move on the XJO we should reach a target of around 4480.1 today.}


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 09:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

I'm with you mate - I reckon we are heading up today and possibly tomorrow before the next move down starts and am also targeting 4470 - 4480 on the ASX200.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 10:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Yes and it will probably be a good time to load up on some more ETF GOLD then too. Bill's bank manager must absolutely loving him at the moment.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 10:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oh poo!

All I wanted was to be ‘Mr E’Dubya for the Week’!!

Rudy, pick on someone the same size!!

Look, I’ll give you your scenario – all that wave equality 16/17 numbers, abcde stuff, and your little wave circle 2.

For me to become ‘Mr E’Dubya for the Week’!!, I need:

1. A ‘manly’ wave v to complete at 1056. (A little Martian whispered 1047?) None of that wimpy abcde stuff – a big finish; or

2. The Nuclear Reactor Scenario

Now the Nuclear Reactor is still valid….trust me. I can see i of (iii), ii of (iii) – the whole catastrophe.

The Jews don’t bomb on Thursday or Fridays….so they are running out of time. They have until the opening of Wall Street tonight to complete the mission, and as they say in Tel Aviv ‘its not over until the little jewish guy with the hat sings’.

I know there is a chorus of support chanting ‘Go Bill, Go Bill…’

....thank you for your support.


(now where's the Tel Aviv phone book, here it is,,,,,,N,,,,e,,,t,,a,,,n...y,,, there he is Benjamin Netanyahu,,, ring ring,,,hello "Bibi" , I've just got a favor to ask,,,,)


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market_mad
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 10:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Yes, I was a big gold bear for the past few years (note was) but I just don't like it as an investment now that everyone has jumped on the gold bandwagon. I agree and I think it will go up in AUD terms given my view on the aussie battler but feel that when these markets begin to fall that gold will go with it.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 10:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hehehehehe.

Bill,

I will probably regret this but I bought myself some BHP for a one day play. Perhaps I can make myself a bit to take my wife out to dinner tonight. It if goes down we will just have to toast the bread and pull out the jar of peanut butter.

If I have to pull out the toaster you can have the last laugh.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 10:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Have you warned BHP & the Stock Market!

This could signal a complete collapse of confidence!

If it doesn't work out, Maca's do a good "family box"....

Bill

ps I have just called 'Bibi' to request a delay in the Reactor raid until after Sydney Trading today - he understood.


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 10:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

I have to admit that I am also suspicious of ETF GOLD at this stage because of Andrew's cycle analysis but it sure had caught me out this time. Whilst Bill has been making a motza on it I have been out of it. I just don't like entering into a wave 5 going hyperbolic because when it drops it does so with great haste.

Forgetting about Andrew's cycle analysis though, if the market starts plummeting, even if the POG does the same, the AUD will also be doing the same thing so that would imply that ETF GOLD's rate of descent should be a bit diminished.

I am in two minds about this and when in doubt, don't.......


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 10:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re your last post. Thanks for that mate. I need all the help I can get.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 11:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

Well it took ages for it to start its anticipated move. With a bit of luck (for me anyway) we'll head towards the 44880 level. I'm assuming that first station to stop at will be around the 4460 level unless the gap at 4456 stops it first.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 02:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



That was boring

Oh well.......mission accomplished. Now we can go out to dinner. I wasn't interested in holding overnight so took the profit at the top......well, the top as of about 10 minutes ago.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 02:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Why I pulled out at 4468 on the XJO

As I use the wave equality stuff on a regular basis I was patiently waiting for the XJO to get to 4471 before pulling out.

It seemed to be really struggling at the 4468 so I decided to take profits at that level. Whilst it may very well go to the 4480 that I suggested this morning I thought that at this level it was a reasonable proportion of the wave to have profited on.




At time of writing this post the XJO was at 4470.9

Can it squeeze out another 9 points???


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 03:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Can you believe the persistance of the XJO???

If it doesn't get ro 4480 it won't be through lack of trying.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 03:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



just went through 4480 - great call


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 03:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Paint and MM,

Thanks Paint but it won't be a great call unless it starts to falter. It is really on a roll now but there is a lot of resistance at the 4500 level.

Lobster is Helen's favourite meal so I guess that's what she will demand.

There is a lot of resistance between here and 4500 so you should be safe. For your sake I hope that the S&P500 gets over and done with its circle ii corrective bounce tonight or you may have to sit through some more upside tomorrow.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 03:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Housing starts, PPI, and Industrial production figures released tonight between 10:30pm and 11:15pm Sydney time... this could prove to be the tipping point... however the US markets have shrugged off poor economic figures lately with the market rallying throughout the day.. this must be a bullish sign of some sort??


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 04:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Paint,

If I am correct in my EW count for the SPX in my post 3780 then the index should rally tonight but once that rally is complete we will be heading south again. Now how long the rally goes for will depend on whether the corrective rally for wave circle ii is a simple abc pattern or a more complex pattern. There is no real way of knowing before hand.

Either way the rally cannot be sustained beyond a few days before the inevitable southward journey starts. The next trip down as I mentioned in my earlier post should be a significant one as it is one of those 3rd waves which are always the strongest.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 05:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everyone!!
Theres some dates I have been given that may be certain turning points so here they are.
For the S&P, the next date of significance is August 25 & for the XJO its August 27.
Now there is a possible crash 3 days either side of September 2 & another turning point is on Sept 3 for S&P.
If I was to put all these dates in some sort of formality, then what may happen is that the XJO will fall from 4500 either tomorrow or thursday.
It then may form a 1,2 of a 3rd & the top of the 2 could be Aug 27.
Whilst this is happening, The S&P looking a bit weak may form an abc correction for the 2nd with wave A tonight or tomorrow night, then doing a b wave but coming further down than the bottom of wave 1 (maybe 1040-50) then retesting something like 1065-72 for wave C on Aug 25 (completing wave 2) before moving down much further.
So as the XJO forms a 1,2 of a 3rd, the S&P may form just a,b,c, of the 2nd.
Then a possible market crash on Sep 1 or 2 & then the S&P finishes its third on Sep 3.
This may not happen so dont take my word for it, but the last 2 dates I had for crashes were May 7 & July 21. May 7 worked but July 21 did not. There is also a rule that the market must be down around 10% from its last relative high for the crash to happen. so 1130 = 1020 or below.
Looking at the way the market is moving this date of a Sep 2 crash is becoming much more probable so just putting this out there to let you guys know that if a crash will occur its more likely to be on the week from Aug 30 - Sep 3. The next date for the XJO is Sep 7 so when the crash happens,the XJO may form a low later than the S&P. I am not surprised if the XJO hits 4000 around Sep 3 to Sep 7.
Then by the end of September, we may see the 3800 & the 930 marks for the relative markets.


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billt
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

You picked circle wave ii on the SPX pretty well.

I will have to wait another week to try to pick up my Man of the Match!

I am assessing the potential wave lengths of the forthcoming circle wave iii on the Russell 2000 ($IUX).

Circle wave i had a length of 58.55 (663.38 – 604.83). A multiple of 1.618 gives a potential wave length of 94.73. Assuming the top is in for circle wave ii @ 630.27, circle wave iii could extend to 535.54.

Have I got that about right?

What are your thoughts on circle wave iii on the SPX?

That's another 15% to fall on the $IUX for Circle wave iii, or +45% on my TZA! I might look at a bit of a 'swing trade' at the bottom of circle wave iii, as circle wave iv might have some length.

I'll be buying everyone lobsters at this rate!


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 08:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

My thoughts on the likely target level for Minute wave circle iii were expressed in my post 3780 yesterday morning.

"Now I could be wrong of course but I don't think that I am. But what does this mean? Well, it still means that the next move down would be a Minute wave circle iii as the next wave which should be a bit of a doozy. Based on a conservative estimate of a wave circle i extension of 100% we should end up somewhere near the 1010 level on completion of this wave."

I still think that the above level is a reasonable target. Using 161.8% of the circle i range is certainly another valid method of getting a circle iii target as well.

1010 also lines up with Randall's rising Mars line for the SPX weekly shown in the attached Word document. You will be able to use the normal Microsoft zoom level controls to have a closer look at the relevant portions of the chart.


application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document
spx weekly.docx (116.1 k)



As for the Russell 2000, I learnt many moons ago that it is best to specialise on a small group of stocks/indices so that you get to know their individual behaviour. They have to become a part of your psyche in order to be able to read them as accurately as possible. The Russell 2000 is not one of these and hence I'll leave that one to you if you like working with it.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Moment of Truth for S&P500

Well folks, we are now at crunch time for the S&P500. To me it looks like wave circle ii may have completed. We have a zillion traditional indicators suggesting that we are set for a sustained rally but my EW count is saying that we may be about to drop our pants big time.





Now I should stress that there is absolutely no reason why wave circle ii could not continue on to a target level of anywhere below the origin of wave circle i and still be correct from an EW perspective. Currently I have the waves (a), (b) and (c) labelled as Minuette waves. If they were relabelled as Subminuette wave then we would have only completed the first corrective wave last night and there would be 2 more waves to go (down and up) to complete the pattern.


I currently have a bottom to this correction as occurring sometime around mid September so there certainly is time to create a much larger corrective wave circle ii but I am taking this pattern one step at a time. So for the time being, there is a very good likelihood of wave circle iii forming. Until that is invalidated I will go with that scenario.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 09:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Yes, I'm with you and have exactly the same count as you - market to top out today (if it didnt already do so yesterday) and I would expect by the end of the day that we will be in the red.

BHP to drag the index down.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 09:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

I'm inclined to agree with you about the influence of BHP on our market today. The 50% retrace of the fall from the 9th to the 12th August would be 4490.4. That would be a good level for a top as an interim target.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 09:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MM,
"Market to top out today"

You gotta be kidding? Market is getting stronger and stronger and with LYC, ESC, DWS, and others we're making some real $$$$$$$. Let's keep rolling to 5000.

Eugenio


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 10:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eugenio,

Hehehehehehe. You're a screech ol' buddy. By the way there is no such stock as ESC (on the Australian market anyway) so I assume you meant the stock you mentioned to me this morning (ie EXS).

Now whilst they may be good for you when you consider that LYC has an All Ords weighting of 0.12%, WDS has a weighting of 0.02% and EXS is so small its weighting doesn't even register, I doubt that those stocks are going to have much of an influence on our market.

I was watching a documentary the other night about a small fish that is able to actually scale extremely high waterfalls by physically climbing up the wet rocks in order to get to the top and be able to breed in the quiet waters in the river at the top of the falls. No one is better at picking those waterfall scaling little fish that can go against the flow of the market than you maestro so keep up the great work.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 10:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We'll see Eugenio, we'll see..

MM


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market_mad
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 10:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just as a matter of interest, the peak before the October 1987 crash on Wall Street was August 25. The Dow lost 20% between August 25 and October 19 before the one day that it lost a further 20%.

Will history repeat?

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 10:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

It might in 2011 but not this year if my EW count is correct. One step at a time for me and the first step is a trip down to 1010.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 10:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I know Rudy - I don't expect it will this year either.

XJO currently 4483 - I'd expect today to see us come back to the 4458 area.

Cheers
MM

 
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