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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through August 19, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through August 19, 2010

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AUSSIE DOLLAR

The Aussie dollar appears to be telling us that it wants to go down now.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 11:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy,
For correction on EXS. (up 3 pts) . Got to put more water in my whiskey.
Besides the minnows I'm doing well with MYR, AWC, and WEB...not to mention HIL and CEY. I feel we are in a up up market so lets ride the crest to 5000.
C'mon girlie boys jump in.

Eugenio







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market_mad
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 11:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



You are on your own Eugenio - quite happy to be a girlie boy and play the short side of the market!

Keep dreaming for 5000 - it will be at 4000 first though

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 11:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Actually I am delighted that Eugenio is coming out with his bullish statements because in the past when he has done that the market has experienced the biggest falls. C'mon wave circle iii. Eugenio is the best contra indicator we have.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 11:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good morning all,

These are the latest comments from the UBS technical team - I have found these guys to be very good.

US Market Triggered Hindenburg Omen
US Trading: As highlighted in last week’s technical alert, the break of 1107 in the SPX cements the August 9 high at 1129 as an important tactical top, and as long as the market is not able to re-break this pivotal resistance we see equities as short-biased into early October. With trending studies is short mode, the Russell-2000 underperforming and bearish patterns emerging in cyclical sectors, we expect more short-term weakness/down-testing before possibly seeing a bounce into early September/Labor Day. After the break of 1088, we have the next support at 1056 to 1050. We continue to see rallies as an opportunity to sell.
On a sector basis we would avoid cyclical sectors, whereas in the defensive camp healthcare is improving and utilities have hit a new high against the SPX. Keep an eye on semiconductors. Short-term, the sector is oversold, but after breaking its 2008 bull trend we also see the 2009 outperformance trend at risk.
US Strategy: Last week a Hindenburg Omen (HO) occurred in the US market. The HO is one of the major patterns in technical analysis that consists of several technical indicators. If we get a second signal in the next 36 trading sessions, we would have a “confirmed” HO in place, which in the past was a superb leading indicator for strong corrections, major market crashes or bear markets. From its technical character, a HO is the confirmation that a classic distribution phase is underway, which fits the potentially toppish patterns in major US headline indices and our general cautious view on equities. We continue to see the risk of a 10% to 15% correction into early October.
European Trading: Last week’s reversal cements the early August breakouts as a classic false break, which identifies these tops as a major tactical top. Although the market is oversold and could bounce, on a short-term basis we see the risk of an overshooting, so our focus is on the next bigger supports. On the sector front we saw a significant shift in leadership last week. Whereas telecoms continue to outperform, we witnessed a strong bounce in absolute and relative terms in food and healthcare. On the other hand, financials and, in particular, cyclical groups weighed on the broader market. Patterns in cyclical sectors are mostly negative, so we would take a cautious tactical stance on construction, industry, basic resources, travel and autos.
Inter-Market Analysis: The USD/JPY continues to play an important role in the current market environment. After last week’s successful test of the December key support at 85 we saw yesterday another sharp reversal in the USD/JPY pair. If we talk about a potential catalyst on the macro side, the USD/JPY has in our view the potential to be the trigger of a big move in financials markets, so continue to keep an eye on this key indicator!!


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eblode
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 11:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

A long as we're having fun and I'm serving some purpose even as an indicator.
Sold LYC and bought more EXS.

MM, you're still one of the best analysts in the business.

Eugenio


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 11:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We all have a purpose in life Eugenio. I make a great boat anchor.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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sway
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 12:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




market_mad wrote on Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 11:16 am:

You are on your own Eugenio




Afraid not MM. Far from it! Despite all the doom crying and self-congratulatory toadying that goes on in this thread, plenty of us out here are doing quite nicely.


Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 12:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BHP EW Count

Hi Folks,

Back on the 2nd August I posted the following EW count for BHP. I remember Eugenio saying at the time that based on that EW count he was keeping a close eye out for any potential sharp fall.






So far the EW count proposed on the 2nd of August has continued to be in play. Following is an update on that count. As Minute wave circle e is now complete, we have also completed Minor wave B. This now sets the scene for the dreaded Minor wave C commencing as of yesterday's high.

Good luck Eugenio if you are still hanging onto BHP. If we get wave equality between Minor waves A and C then we are headed for around $32.30!!!





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 12:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eugenio,

Just wondering whether you run your screening process, for stock selection, through IC? Both EXS and LYC have been cracking trades coming off a very tight trading base. Does IC offer the ability to screen for this type of base (ie via Bollinger band width?

Cheers
Paint


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 02:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Bears not in the clear yet

At present the pattern that has emerged is 3 waves down. That is not a good sign for the bears. The other issue is that the lower boundary of the ascending channel has not yet been broken.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 02:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sway,

No probs - if you don't like what you read here, then why post or even read at all?

MM


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eblode
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 02:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,
Sold out of BHP weeks ago with a nice profit.Almost bought in today but you feel it might drop far lower so I will wait. No hurry. Time I've got.

Paint,
As far as LYC I simply saw the volume begin to grow excessively with the price. A sure sign of the potential northbound path of this stock. With EXS a friend of mine with the Weston Bank of Switzerland bought 1 million shares at .12 and said I should buy some. At that time I saw little volume and only 6 trades a day go through so I avoided it until I then saw volume pick up with price. Then I made my move .The volume combined with the surge in price is the key to it all. Right now I see two bargains going cheap, NVT and IIN. Strong companies but slightly out of favour with the masses. But time I've got and they will move northward. IC certainly is a wonderful and simple aid to plot these courses.

Eugenio


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paint
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 02:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Eugenio - I'll follow NVT and IIN with interest


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sway
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 02:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MM

I try to take in a wide range of views. I'm looking for logic, consistency and objectivity to support those views. Stars, planets and Elliot waves that get adjusted every 10 minutes don't fit any of those criteria (let alone all of them). I'd love to see how a star/planet/EW trader or investor writes their trading/investing plan.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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market_mad
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 02:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sway

Given this thread is called 'Elliot Wave Watching' why are you reading here never mind posting - if it's not for you then look away. Everyone who posts here has an interest in Elliot Wave and that is why Rudy started up the thread.

Nobody is asking for your views on this thread if it isn't your cup of tea...

MM


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sway
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 02:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MM

I read all of the IC posts. I don't want to miss any of Eugenio's astute observations or sense of humour.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 03:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Your call this morning was spot on. The current levels are offering huge resistance to further upward movement on the XJO at present.





It may have another go at attacking this overhead resistance just before the close but up till now it's really been finding it difficult.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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colin_twiggs
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 05:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sway,

We are all ignorant, just on different subjects (Will Rogers). I know very little about EW -- it does not appeal to me -- but it would be wrong of me to criticize until I had made a thorough study of it.

Regards,
Colin


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paint
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 06:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



All,

I'm looking at BLD. Seems to be forming an ascending triangle (potential trend reversal), TMF, MACD, %R, all supporting a reversal. However 200day looks grim. BLD reported today and the market seemed OK with the numbers. Anyone got a view on this? Rudy - does EW point towards a reversal.... I'd like to learn more through working examples if possible?

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 07:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Paint,

As I mentioned to Bill yesterday, I tend to focus my EW attentions on a small number of indices, commodities and stocks. Unlike traditional TA where you can throw up indicators within a matter of seconds, EW analysis takes quite a bit of time and I already spend hours per day doing what I do and I really don't have time to analyse individual stocks on a day to day basis.

Keep in mind that not all stocks will be suitable for analysing using EW methodologies because they may not have the spread and number of investor types that will generate your typical statistical bell curve where the majority of investors sit in the middle of the curve and the those on the opposite extremes cancel each other out.

You will find that there will be stocks that you come across that obviously appear to be suitable EW candidates whereas others are far more obscure.

I also don't know your investment/trading time frame. If we use a mix of various tools we can see from the chart below that the monthly Slow Stochastic is on an upward path.

BLD has also managed to find some basic support at the 38.2% Fib level which is a good sign for the longer term. From an EW perspective we can see that the trend is up and we have had one corrective episode and are now going through a second (but much longer) corrective episode. The base of this second corrective episode aligns pretty well with the peak of the first one.

I would suggest therefore that the longer term trend in the upward direction will continue.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 08:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Many thanks Rudy - I appreciate your comments. I hope the lobster feast was a success!!


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sway
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 08:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 07:41 am:

I would suggest therefore that the longer term trend in the upward direction will continue.




What long term upward trend would that be Rudy?

bld

Take care Paint. The chances of BLD suddenly heading towards $6 and beyond look very slim to me. It is not that kind of a stock. If you are in favour of trading counter-trend you might pick up 10% if you're lucky. There is a lot of resistance to deal with.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 08:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 throws a swerve ball

Just when the bears were getting all excited the S&P500 threw a swerve ball to throw in some doubt about an immediate drop. Last night the S&P500 peaked at 1099.77. So who cares you may ask? Well, EW analysts care because for the current wave circle ii to remain valid, the current rally cannot trade above the termination level of circle ii. As a matter of interest circle ii terminated at 1100.14.

Talking about brinksmanship. I would suggest that the current labelling will hold for the index would have to drop from this point onwards. The following chart shows us what changes in labelling may have to take place.






If, as I expect the market does move higher, then the termination point of wave circle ii will be delayed because the corrective pattern will have changed from a simple (a)(b)(c) to the larger circle WXY pattern.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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sway
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 09:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




colin_twiggs wrote on Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 05:24 pm:

I know very little about EW -- it does not appeal to me -- but it would be wrong of me to criticize until I had made a thorough study of it.




Colin

We all have our opinions. Just because this is an Elliot Wave thread, it doesn't mean only those pro-EW can post here. An uneducated casual reader to the forum might stumble upon this thread and be unduly influenced.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 09:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Fair comment Sway. I should be more specific but if you in anyway tried being fair you would have seen that the trend that I was speaking of in my post was the one shown on my chart (ie the one that started on the 9th March 2009. From some people's perspective that is considered a reasonably long period of time.

I'm not really sure why you chose $6.00 as your target. I would have suggested that a trip to the previous high of $5.75 would be a reasonable target. Let's see who turns out to be right.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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sway
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 09:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 08:58 am:

I would suggest that the current labelling will hold for the index would have to drop from this point onwards. The following chart shows us what changes in labelling may have to take place.




Here we go again. So the EW predicted crash that HAD to happen late July or early August (see many previous posts) is now heading for September? HANG ON! I recall various posters saying September will be the time to buy back in in a big way?

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 09:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Colin,

I was requested by quite a large number of interested parties to start up a thread specifically for the purpose of educating people on the methodology of Elliott Wave analysis. I believe, as many do, that this service is a worthy one and would elevate the overall technical expertise of readers of this Incredible Charts forum.

Sway has on many occasions shown his almost vindictive bias against any view that is different to his own. Once again he is demonstrating this personality trait.

I will leave it up to you Colin. If you allow Sway to disrupt what has been a popular thread by bringing his negative views onto this thread then I will cease providing this service. I put a lot of time into this thread and if you feel that it serves no purpose then I will end it here.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 09:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sway / Rudy - thanks for your comments. I'll follow BLD with interest. I agree that it is not a stock that is set to shoot the lights out. I was originally looking at it for a short based on US exposure / global slowdown - with the view that yesterday's announcement may cause the price to break downwards from the ascending triangle. (following on from JHX).This clearly didn't happen, and now looks like it may move north. Its not something that I'll go long. Cheers


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paint
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 09:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Out of interest:

Citi rates BLD as Sell, High Risk (5) -
While FY10 was as Citi had been expecting, FY11 is set to be a tough year, the analysts say.

Pricing outcomes were mixed across key products and the broker expects 1H to be challenging, while questioning if this could extend into 2H.

The analysts raise their target by 30c to $4.00, but remain concerned about Boral’s exposure to US housing.


CS, DB, UBS, JPM have higher price targets but the same concerns.

I understand that this thread is for EW discussion so I'll post these types of queries elsewhere going forward.

Also I was wondering whether anyone near Manly NSW would like to form a discussion group?

Cheers
Paint


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pjf000
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 10:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,
Don't let Sway sway you.
You are much appreciated by the silent majority.
Regards,
Phillip.


Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 10:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Phillip,

Thanks for your support but it's up to Colin now. Incredible Charts has had a number of top quality posters that eventually gave up in disgust because of small minded critics who continued to attack them. It really is up to Colin to decide whether he wants a forum that develops traders/investors in all aspects of analysing the markets or whether he wants it to fizzle away into obscurity.

Genuine posters have got better things to do with their time than to leave themselves open to this sort of uncontrolled abuse from people who have absolutely no idea about the methodologies they unthinkingly attack.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 10:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Colin

I have already reported yesterday to you of the abuse being received by Sway.

Your note yesterday obviously has not had the desired effect on Sway.

All IC posters must treat other members with respect, to show courtesy and tolerance.

To refer to all the posters on this thread as “the doom crying and self-congratulatory toadying” is appalling.

Sway’s ongoing abusive tone is not acceptable to me, or indeed everyone else who uses this Thread.

Rudy’s particular skill and effort to educate those who wish to learn EW should be encouraged.

I again request that Sway is denied access to this Thread.

Bill


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gdd3
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 10:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

You may not has seen/picked the SPX500 'swerve' ball thrown last night but I'm sure you can pick the SWAY ball....every time! Just let 'them' fly uneventfully past into the 'catchers/keeper's' hands and remain focused on the 'task at hand'(that is much appreciated by others).

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 11:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin and Bill,

Thanks for your support. I don't really think that we should have to 'ignore' the flies at a picnic when it is controllable with correct monitoring of the forum rules. Anyway, on to more important things.

For those who understand the EW methodology they understand that we always have to keep a number of scenarios in mind when attempting to determine future market action. The methodology requires that as more of the pattern becomes revealed, a number of scenarios will be invalidated hence bringing you closer to the final pattern.

The other important thing to note also is that the more methodologies that you can bring into your analysis, the more accurate your predictions will become. For example the chart below shows the market action on the XJO over the last few days.





Note that since the peak yesterday, the XJO has traded in a corrective type of pattern. For us to be heading down in a circle iii wave pattern we would be expecting either a leading diagonal or an impulse wave. The current pattern is neither of these. If anything it looks more like some sort of expanding wedge pattern.

Note also that so far it has not retraced beyond 50% of the last rally leg hence maintaining the current trend strength. The other methodology that we can bring to bear is the 45 trading day cycle that has been operating for some time now. It is obvious that the next cycle date should be a top and that date is Monday the 23rd August (yes, next Monday). Now obviously it may not be the top but at least thd guidance that the 45 trading cycle analysis gives us is the possibility of a top.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 11:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Back to business!

Pollyanna is sitting on top of the slippery dip waiting for someone to give her a push.

The SPX may be held up artificially (manipulated) into OPEX (options expiration). Weirdly, I did see a massive spike on the Options Put/Call index this morning (see ODB) before it disappeared without a trace.

A wave 3 is something you don't ever want to be caught on the wrong side.

Thanks for your post

Bill


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sway
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 11:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy
Some time last year I pointed out that your EW forecasts were not working and you acknowledged as much by backing off. Lately you seem to have been fortified by dubious and questionable astro stuff. I can accept you offering an opinion, but when you use language which is unequivocal, I think you are making dangerous statements that could cost a lot of people real money. For example, selling GOLD ETF, just after it bounced nicely from the 30w MA. In my opinion, GOLD is a hold in this choppy market, with a cautionary watch when it nears resistance at $137. The A$/US$ could drive it through this barrier.

For interest, I sold my remaining BHP a couple of weeks ago and rolled more into GOLD and PRU.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 11:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Yes, I spotted your post on the DOB thread about the fat finger on the VIX. Totally agree with you about not wanting to be long at the beginning of a wave 3 of any kind.

Probably a couple of additional points to make about the upcoming peaks in both the US and Aussie markets. First of all is the point that our market peaked on the 15th April 2010 whereas the SPX peaked on the 26th April so they won't necessarily peak together this time (but I think that they probably will).

I just noticed that the XJO slipped outside of the ascending channel. It will be interesting to see if it can claw its way back into it.





No matter which way you slice it, the peaks are getting very close.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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colin_twiggs
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 11:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




sway wrote on Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 09:03 am:

Just because this is an Elliot Wave thread, it doesn't mean only those pro-EW can post here. An uneducated casual reader to the forum might stumble upon this thread and be unduly influenced.




Sway,

You are welcome to state your opposition/skepticism towards EW. But I ask that you do so in a separate thread. Otherwise you have to make continual posts, repeating the same view, in order for it not to be lost in the stream of posts to the EW thread -- to the irritation of other readers.

Regards, Colin


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sway
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 11:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Colin. I hope I've made my point and will suspend further comment on this thread.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I note that the POG made an impulse wave up and is currently in a corrective move. Again, like with the XJO that would indicate that there is still another move up. If you get wave equality then you could go up as high as $1242.50.





The only attenuating factor would be an upward trending AUD if the XJO decides to make a last leg up.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 04:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

Thanks for your input on POG.

Last Sunday you suggested a possible target for POG at a similar upside level. So that’s encouraging. We are still getting higher highs at the close, so I’m hanging in.

From an EW count Rudy, if we have a leg higher now on POG does that mean we would morph into a WXY combo?

I intend to ‘bail’ as soon as we approach $1238, for the non- EW/TA reasons as stated in my post 109 (below) on ODB on Tuesday. I just hope the XJO/$AUD takes a dive before he hit that number!

I cannot see the Fed allowing POG to jump 10% in a matter of a few weeks, whilst trying to flog truck loads of US Treasuries for next to nothing.

China may step in and buy more gold now they have begun their withdrawal from US Treasuries. So if that happens, it might change things very quickly.

Check out Trader Dan’s charts on http://jsmineset.com/ . He is always good value.

Thanks again

Bill

Post 109:

“Etf GOLD

I expect to sell my entire GOLD holdings as soon as the POG hits usd$1238. It is in wave v, and is currently $1226 and rising.

I expect the Central Banks to step in and short their positions to stop the rally. Half of all the Central Bank's gold has been leased into the market for this very purpose. USA needs to sell $100 billion a month in US Bonds, so they can't afford to get people too excited about buying gold instead.

$1238 forms a very useful Head & Shoulders pattern for the Central Banks to mess with the Gold's 'Berma Bull' heads!”


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paint
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 04:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

When you state "Half of all the Central Bank's gold has been leased into the market for this very purpose." - could you pls expand on this a bit - very interesting


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 04:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I got back into GOLD yesterday afternoon at the low and pulled out again today at the high because I really expect an up move in the US market tonight to complete that final leg. It paid for another lobster dinner and I will probably go in again either tomorrow or Monday if the market acts as I expect.

Once the market starts to go down it should drag the AUD down with it which should occur whilst the POG price continues to move towards that level I mentioned earlier.

As you can tell, I am really playing an 'in and out' game with this product for the reasons you mention.

I will check you that site you provided either tonight or tomorrow. Thanks for sharing.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 05:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys!

SPX @ 1094.16

On the SPX 60 minute, the MACD histogram has a bearish pPp pattern, and the MACD is beginning to roll over. The Full STO has also rolled over at 85.3. The ADX still remains bearish. A bearish Double Top has formed on the 50% fib. The RSI has shown negative divergence for over a month, and has rolled over again. Plenty of reasons for a wave 3 tonight!

On the SPX Daily, we have closed below the MA (20) twice, which sits at 1106.14. The 61.8% fib is at 1106.40. Overhead resistance is at 1107.17.

Wave 2 could extend to the 1106/1107, which could tag the descending trend line from the April high

Market breadth indicators also remain bearish with the NYSE and Nasdaq Summation Indexes still below the 5-day EMAs. Moreover, the Bullish Percentage Indexes of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are bearish remaining under their 5-day EMA signal lines.

As you say Rudy, the SPX could extend wave 2 to a new high at the 1106/07 level before a reversal, or commence the wave 3 leg.

Remember ‘Bibi’ still has his jets on the tarmac, fueled and ready to roll. A few bombs on the Reactor would also stop the Palestine Peace talks, which ‘Bibi’ has never shown any past willingness towards. Politically he still may strike!

Randall’s post today was excellent over on his Thread for those who may have missed it.


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 05:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

As you say the SPX could either head straight down tonight and not breach that 1100.14 level or it could thrust through it to complete a final leg. It cannot be determined by EW analysis. Either scenario is valid. We will just have to see what happens. Which ever way it plays out, we will know that we're in a wave 3 when it starts because they don't stuff around.

As a matter of fact the likelihood of the wave 3 starting tonight probably increased dramatically because I pulled out of GOLD today.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 05:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Paint

Check out Jaggards site: http://www.jaggards.com.au/news/medusa/article_7.asp.

They are the main Gold Merchant's here in Sydney - they have been around forever. That comment comes from them!

Also check out http://jsmineset.com/ as they often mention the same manipulation.

I think of it as a 'War'. America, Europe, UK are attempting to prop up their currencies (FIAT system) and their balance sheets , and currently they are requiring the market to buy their Treasuries to fund their out of control deficit/debt at very low yields.

As they print more money, the 'punters' get troubled and flee to any other 'safe haven'. Gold is the only real option left. POG accelerates and roars ahead.

The Western Countries Central Banks still have a vast store of Gold Bullion. It is alleged (by many & those in the know) that half of all the Central Bank's gold has been leased into the market so that when the POG gets ahead of itself, they short the market, and buy it back in when the price drops.

That's the basis of it....

At some stage, it will implode and POG will rocket, but in the meantime you have to swing trade to miss Uncle Sam's 'shorts'!


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billt
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 05:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Your in & out like a .....

SPX & $AUD drop 10% tonight and POG shoots $100, reactors on fire....you can just see it Rudy!

I'm happy to take your 'misses' out for her next lobster - those Maca's just don't hit the spot!


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paint
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 05:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bill - I like your way of thinking







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rdumas
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 08:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



HiBill,

Re your question "From an EW count Rudy, if we have a leg higher now on POG does that mean we would morph into a WXY combo?".

You may recall the EW count that I proposed for the medium term POG (refer below).





Just progressing on from that chart I now post an update below.




And now drilling into the detail of the pattern for Minor wave B we have the following chart.





Now I know that you have a much lower target for the POG before you bail out Bill but I believe that we are forming a Flat pattern and therefore I have a target level of $1260 which is a rounded down figure for the previous top (actual top was $1265.05).


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
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