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Archive through August 27, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through August 27, 2010

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billt
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Post Number: 147
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 09:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy

Minuette wave (iii) or the Subminuette wave iii could also break into a 9 waver, if the sell off gets into overdrive - that might take us directly to your 925 target with little relief rally move to the upside....just a thought!

ETF GOLD

POG shot up $25, $AUD under pressure....another wave heading north...

China buying 180 tons of the stuff - selling US Treasuries.


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 10:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

It depends on whether the S&P500 completes its wave (iii) tonight or not. It may complete and then it will be starting its wave (iv) which is obviously a rally leg. What we do tomorrow will depend on where abouts the S&P500 is in that particular cycle. I would think that we should see that wave (iv) leg either today or tomorrow so we should see the worst of things today in our market.

If we do get down to my 4278 level at wave equality and bounce then we will have to monitor the pattern on the way up very carefully because as you say it could be a larger than anticipated rally. The reason being is that it could mean that the low at 4278 could be the Minute wave circle d of a Triangle for Minor wave B and we would be heading up to form the last circle e leg of the Triangle.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 10:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

How good is that POG and Elliott Wave analysis. All the technicals looked crap last night but as our EW count showed yesterday we were expecting a 5th wave to complete before it took off again.

Here was yesterdays chart and EW count.




As you can see it dropped further than I expected but the pattern was spot as can be seen from the following chart. By the way the term 'shoots up' has nothing to do at all with drug taking.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 10:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 11:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A bit more on the XJO price action

The XJO at this stage is not falling for the bearishness of the S&P500. The technicals on the chart below seem to be indicating that the next move is up rather than down.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 12:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



KZL price action

Peter Loh brought up what appears to be an interesting stock recently. At the time it looked like it needed to go through more of a corrective move than it had but it does look like it may have completed that part of its cycle.

The BB and %R indicators look like they are in the right location for a buy.




And the EW count doesn't look too bad either.




Based on wave equality I originally thought that it may go down to around the 55 cents level. It went down to 59 cents and bounced off that level so I thought that I would have a bit of fun with the stock. With any luck it should get at least the same range as wave 1.

I bought in at 60 cents so with a risk of 5 cents (55 cents) and reward of around 27.5 cents it gives me a reasonable risk to reward ratio.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 12:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



KZL Wave Equality

I shouldn't round off figures like I did in my last post. The wave equality target is actually 55.5 cents on KZL. So my risk to reward ratio is even better than previously quoted.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 02:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Why would KZL count be any different from your base count for the XJO?

It could easily be in the same ABC correction as XJO. the recent price action may have it in wave iii of a much larger pattern heading south?

KZL is a great , low cost, Aussie Zinc & Copper miner - but until the market hits it's base, I would assume it might have further to travel south, before it heads north?




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billt
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 02:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 02:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Following is the EW count that I posted on Peter's thread on KZL. As you can see the preceeding rally was clearly an impulse wave. I strongly suspect that we are forming a Zigzag which is why I have a wave equality target for this leg. There is a high probability that the waves 123 will end up being labelled waves ABC.

I had no intention of staying in it long term. All I am attempting to do is to ride out the C or 3 wave.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 02:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

We'll see who ends up being right. The wonderful thing about the market is that it always ends up letting you know the truth of the matter in the end.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 02:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Considering McHugh's Gold Count, which shows us in a mega impulsive rally to the moon, it does seem that the latest price action on POG looks like a further 5 wave rally?

With a commodity based Wave v having every chance to run & run, perhaps we will have an attack on the previous high?

Your EW work in that dip paid off Rudy!




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billt
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market_mad
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 03:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Bill,

That is a crack up!!

Brilliant!

Made my day,

cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 03:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Bill,

Help me cheer the XJO down to the 4278. I want to see it bounce off that level.

By the way, did you see the 4 Corners program on Monday about the GFC and the upcoming 'Bailout Bubble' fiasco???

The US (and everyone else) is finally going to find out that when you do stimulus packages on a credit card you eventually have to pay it back.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 03:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Head and Shoulders Target

I think that the best that the bulls can hope for is a bounce off 4278 to form leg circle e in a Triangle pattern for Minor wave B.

If that fails then it looks like the Head and Shoulders pattern may have a target level of 4159 in mind as an interim target level.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 04:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi rudster

XJO is heading to 4150, a bit of a lame rally, then 3850 pronto....I just hope it stops there.

Even these guys agree!




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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 04:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You're a screech mate. What do you think will happen when the AUD hits the bottom of the channel? And if it bounces what do you think the XJO will do??





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 05:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

My thoughts are that the SPX tonight will crash from 1051 to 1023 then a wave iv rally back to 1047 sometime over the course of the next few trading days. Wave v will take us to 1010.

The XJO will come off another 4% from its current level and possibly retest the 4175 level.

The $AUD will also come off 4% by the completion of this leg. So, perhaps the $AUD will hit the bottom trend line, wobble, then crash through it to >84 cents. I would not be surprised if it retested the May 10 lows.


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billt
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 07:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

Many commentators say that the US Russell 2000 Small Caps (RUT) leads the other indices. It can be at times a great indicator of things that will emerge within the SPX and DOW.

You will remember that the RUT topped out over a week earlier than the SPX. When many were saying there was another leg up, RUT had already made its mind up and was heading down!

Since the latest correction began its descent since 10 August, RUT has continued its course reasonably the same as the SPX, albeit at a faster rate of decline.

Since the commencement of Circle ii Subminuette ii it seems to be suggesting that a potential 9 wave pattern may emerge.

Subminuette wave i had a range of 31.08 (632.77-601.69).

Subminuette wave iii fell short of the target (of say 31.08 x 1.618 = 50.28) at 29.17 (617.75-588.58). That suggests to me that that Subminuette wave iii has not completed and what we have seen is perhaps the first of five waves within Subminuette wave iii.

If this pattern repeats on SPX & DOW we may see a much larger decline than we first thought.

Thoughts?

Bill



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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 08:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

All of the above things could happen but I will take it one wave at a time. At this time I expect the SPX to be in it's Minuette wave (iv) sometime in the next 1~2 days. As for the XJO I believe that that 4278 level will be a strong support which I don't think it will just crash through without a second thought. To me there are too many indicators suggesting an over sold condition for the market.

Having said the above I would not be surprised no matter what happens. We live in very interesting times.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 09:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Whilst I am trying not to be bearish I have to admit that what I see on a number of indices does not look good. The Nikkei for instance looks like it's on the verge of dropping another 12% with very little support below.



Here is a longer term view which shows the current price action as a smaller version of what happened previously. Certainly looks like a slippery slope to me.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 11:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

The Australia 200 Cash on IG Markets is currently at 4280

Ken


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 07:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

Thanks for that. I suspect that there would be a lot of large players looking at the same Fib ratios. It will be interesting to see what the physical market does at those levels though.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 07:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX dropped on the open to support at 1039, before completing a corrective rally to hit the trend line and reverse to close at the overhead resistance at 1055.

I am unsure whether wave (iii) has completed. Wave (iii) has not extended the normal 1.61x wave (i), so I am thinking we may have a 9 wave pattern for wave (iii).

This count becomes invalid if wave (iv) intrudes into wave (i) at 1063.91.

Target for the completion of circle iii is 1009.74





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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 08:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 overnight price action

The S&P500 continues to plot a text book Elliott Wave pattern and as a special treat last night completed a text book double top target completion.



Following is the most likely EW count for the S&P500.



As we can see from the above chart, last night we completed Minuette wave (iii) and quite possibly even Minuette wave (iv). I have a question mark at that point because there is still a slight possibility that last nights close could be only wave 'a' of a larger Minuette wave (iv).

I do consider that to only be a small possibility as the impulse wave is channeling and has met the upper boundary of the channel and has also met the normal target for a corrective wave following an impulse. These normally retrace back to somewhere within the price range of the 4th wave of the previous impulse wave.

Now if Minuette wave (v) is about the same range as Minuette wave (i) then we should terminate Minute wave circle iii somewhere around the 1024 level.

The following Minute wave circle iv would normally rally back to terminate somewhere in the price range of Minuette wave (iv).


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 08:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I had not noticed that you had already posted an EW count for last night's price action. Looks like we came up with much the same count independently so that is a good sign. We must be channeling the same spirit guides.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 09:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

a few questions mr e'dubya!

1. How do you know whether wave (iii) has completed? Double Top helps I guess? However, Wave (iii) has not extended the normal 1.61x wave (i), so I am thinking we may have a 9 wave pattern for wave (iii)?

2. My initial target for the completion of circle wave iii was double the length of circle wave i (2x59.75), giving a target of 1009.74. How did you get to 1024?

3. Minute wave circle iv normally rallies back to terminate somewhere in the price range of Minuette wave (iv), so that is in the 1040 to 1060 range. Hardly worth the effort for the swing trade - I'll sit tight on my position trade until the completion of circle wave v! Are you expecting circle wave v to be a similar length of circle i? That could get us very close to Astro Boy's 990! (+/- 6)

Your thoughts?

Both our counts become invalid if wave (iv) intrudes into wave (i) at 1063.91, so it better head south.

POG
Holding at the $1240 resistance level, so far so good.

Check out Silver! (we're on the wrong horse - we should have been on the grey!)

cheers

Bill


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market_mad
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 10:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

I closed out of all my shorts and this morning am getting out of my Sept 4000 options. Coming to close to expiry and I think we will bounce over the next few days and don't think we will get down there in time.

Locked in a handsome profit on the shorts and now awaiting higher levels to re-enter - targeting 4400 area.

Cheers
MM


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billt
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 10:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well done MM...count the winnings!

I'm shorting the Russell 2000 Small Caps (RUT), via a 3 times the inverse ETF (TZA), plus a few others on the NYSE. I feel RUT has a few waves down to go, so I'm hanging in there for now. The advantage with the ETF's is that you are not restricted by time, so I can be patient and watch the pattern emerge.

Other than the XJO@4000 short, what others were you playing? I feel the XJO will get to 4000, but perhaps it will take a bit longer to get there.

Bill


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market_mad
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 10:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I had short CFDs over the ASX200 forward index. I agree mate that we will get to 4000 but, like you, think it will take a bit longer to get there - possibly by end of September/early October. Expiry on the puts is around the 16th Sept from memory so its only a couple of weeks away and I just didn't think I was giving myself enough time.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 10:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You never know with 100% certainty when an impulse is finished because of their tendency to extend on many occasions. I like to look at the proportionality of the waves at each level to try to gauge where we are at in a wave count. Looking at the 'channeling effect' will often help you with this.

If you look at the Subminuette waves for Minuette wave (iii) you will see that then channeled beautifully and the waves at the Minuette level are also channeling beautifully. These are the best indicators of which level you are looking at. Don't forget that there is only ever 5 waves in an impulse wave. When have an impulse wave that is extending it only appears to have move waves because we are seeing waves at two or more levels occurring on the one chart. Remember my constant harping about level confusion being an EW analyst's worst problem

Don't get too hung up on wave 3 ranges 's having to be 161.8% of wave 1 ranges. That is purely a guide.....it is not a rule.

I also have a target for the SPX of 1010 but had no firm idea of which wave would be terminating at that level. It just happened to be a strong bounce level which is why I mentioned it.

I got the 1024 level from the comment in my previous post, namely "Now if Minuette wave (v) is about the same range as Minuette wave (i) then we should terminate Minute wave circle iii somewhere around the 1024 level."

Now there is no rule suggesting that the first and fifth wave will have the same ranges. This mainly occurs when there has been a very large third leg. In this case that did not happen.

The same thing goes for the waves at the Minute level (ie waves circle i and circle v). They don't have to be the same however that is a good target to start with.

Funny thing about the grey's........they have a pretty high win strike rate relative to the numbers running around.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Well done mate. There's no profit that's a bad profit as far as I'm concerned.......sure beats losses.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 11:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy for the explanation - that helps a lot. Could this circle wave v go ballistic - is there any rules about the maximum length? I have seen some EW counts suggesting it to extend from current levels to 900! Seems extreme!

Good luck fitting your bounty into your bank account MM...

A SPX Fib Fan for fun!




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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 12:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

In Prechter and Frost's Elliott Wave Principle book there are no rules governing the length of a 5th wave. There used to be a site in cyberspace that had a build up of all of the rules and guidelines that relate to various patterns but I can't find that original site. There is another site however that appears to have the same details. That site is http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/1446-rules-guidelines-elliott-wave.ht ml

Now I do not know the origin of these rules and guidelines but I have found them to be very useful in my EW studies.

Just as a sample here is the following information on Impulse waves.

Impulse Rules:

An Impulse is a five Wave pattern labeled 1-2-3-4-5 moving in the direction of the larger trend. It is the most common Elliott Wave pattern.
Wave 1 must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal.
Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
No part of Wave 2 can more than retrace Wave 1.
Wave 2 must retrace Wave 1 by a minimum of 20%.
The maximum time for Wave 2 is nine times Wave 1.
Wave 3 must be an Impulse.
Wave 3 must be longer than Wave 2 in gross distance by price.
The gross price movement of Wave 2 must be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 1 or Wave 4 of Wave 1. The gross price movement of Wave 2 must also be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 3 or Wave 4 of Wave 3. Wave 2 must also be greater than 61.8% of the gross movement of each of the above 4 sub-Waves.
Wave 3 and Wave 1 cannot both have 5th Wave failures. (A Failure is an impulsive Wave where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4 by price.)
Wave 3 cannot be less than 1/3 of Wave 1 by price.
Wave 3 cannot be more than 7 times Wave 1 by price.
Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave 3, its absolute maximum time limit is 7 times Wave 1.
Wave 4 can be any corrective pattern.
Waves 1, 2 and 4 cannot overlap except by 15% of Wave 2 with leveraged securities, and then only for a maximum of less than two days.
The gross price movement of Wave 4 must be greater than either the gross movement of Wave 2 of 3 or Wave 4 of 3. The gross price movement of Wave 4 must also be greater than either the gross movement of Wave 2 of 5 or Wave 4 of 5. The gross movement by price of Wave 4 must also be greater than 61.8% of the gross movement of each of these four subwaves.
The gross movement by price of Wave 4 must be greater than 1/3 of the gross movement of Wave 2 by both price and percentage movement.
The gross movement by price for Wave 4 must be less than three times the gross movement of Wave 2 by both price and percentage movement.
Wave 3 and Wave 4 cannot both be failures. (A Failure is an impulsive Wave where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4 by price.)
Although Wave 4 has no minimum time constraint, the maximum time for Wave 4 is twice the time taken by Wave 3.
Wave 5 must be an Impulse or an Ending Diagonal. However, if Wave 5 is longer than Wave 3 by price, then Wave 5 must be an Impulse.
Wave 5 must move by price more than 70% of Wave 4. (This is not gross movement. Only consider the end points of both Waves.)
Wave 3 must never be shorter than both Wave 1 and 5, by either price distance or percentage price movement.
If Wave 5 is truncated, or contains an Impulse that is truncated, then neither Wave 3 nor Wave 4 can contain a subwave that is truncated. (A truncated pattern is where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4. This is also known as a failure.)
The maximum movement of Wave 5 is six times Wave 3 in both price and time.
Wave 5 has no minimum time constraint.

Impulse Guidelines:

Wave 1 can be a Leading Diagonal, but this is rare.
Wave 2 is usually a Zigzag based pattern.
Wave 2 usually takes a small amount of time compared to Wave 1. However, Wave 2 is usually takes more than 10% of the time taken by Wave 1.
Wave 2 generally retraces more than 30% of Wave 1 including internal data points.
Wave 2 will usually retraces less than 80% of Wave 1 .
The most likely retracement for Wave 2 is 50% or 61.8% of Wave 1.
The gross price movement of Wave 2 should be greater than the gross price movement of Waves 2 of 1, 4 of 1, 2 of 3 and 4 of 3.
If the gross movement of Wave 2 is between 33% and 40.3% retracement of Wave 1, it is most likely complete.
If the gross movement of Wave 2 has retraced to end of previous Wave 4 of 1, then it is most likely complete.
It is unlikely that Wave 3 will be shorter than Wave 1 by price.
The most likely price range for Wave 3 is between 1.5 and 3.5 times the price range of Wave 1.
Most likely range in time for Wave 3 is between 1 and 4 times the time taken by Wave 1.
Wave 4 is rarely a Zigzag based correction.
It is common for both Waves 4 & 2 to have approximately the same price movement.
Wave 4 will most often retrace more than 20% of Wave 3, including internal points.
Wave 4 will very often retrace about 38.2% of Wave 3.
Wave 4 does not often retrace Wave 3 by more than 50%.
Wave 4 will often retrace into the price territory of previous Wave 4 of Wave 1.
Wave 4 will most often retrace to the end of the previous Wave 4 of one lesser degree.
Waves 2 & 4 usually alternate between Zigzag and Flat. The other alternation is between a Triangle and a Flat.
Leveraged markets may at times overlap by up to 15% of Wave 2 by price.
The gross price movement of Wave 4 should be greater than the gross price movement of Waves 2 of 3, 4 of 3, 2 of 5 and 4 of 5.
Expect the time taken by Wave 4 to be between 100% - 270% of the time taken by Wave 2.
Wave 5 will usually move beyond the end of Wave 3.
When Wave 5 is extended (more than 161.8% longer than both Waves 1 and 3) a point within Wave 4 will often divide the entire Impulse Wave by 1.618.
If Wave 5 is extended (more than 161.8% longer than both Waves 1 and 3), it is common for its price length to be about 161.8% of the gross price length between the beginning of Wave 1 to end of Wave 3.
It is unusual for Wave 5 to travel a greater price or time percentage than Wave 3 traveled in its entirety.
The most likely price targets for Wave 5 are: 61.8% of Wave 1, 100% of Wave 1, 161.8% of Wave 1, 161.8% of the length from the beginning of Wave 1 to end of Wave 3.
If Wave 3 is about equal to 161.8% of Wave 1 by price, the most likely time for Wave 5 is about equal to the time taken by Wave 1.
One of the Impulse Waves (Waves 1, 3 or 5) generally extends (at least 162% times the next longest Impulse Wave).
The most likely Wave to extend is the 3rd Wave of an Impulse. However, in leveraged funds when the Impulse is rising and the degree is Primary or above, the most likely Wave to extend is Wave 5.
A non-extended 5th Wave of less than Primary degree usually has a lower peak volume than a third Wave. However, when the 5th Wave extends (less than Primary degree), Wave 5 has usually shows more volume.
Wave 5, when complete, usually has a lesser slope than Wave 3. However, in leveraged securities when the Impulse is rising and the degree is Primary or above, this is not usually the case.
Wave 5 is usually less than 4 times length of Wave 3 by time.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 01:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy and Bill,

Thanks guys! Not convinced about us going higher but am wary of a short squeeze at some point.

AS you say Rudy - you don't go broke making a profit!

Looks like our market wants to edge higher here even given that the Asian region isn't really performing (yet). We may get to around 4345-4348 on the day on the XJO.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 01:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

I'm with you on that one. I reckon that 4348 will just about top off this corrective move and then we head down again.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 01:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

When channeling is working well you can determine the different wave levels. Now I have to stress that this doesn't always work but it can sometimes be a good guide.

So as I mention on the chart, either we are about to change direction in the main trend or we are nearing the time for the next wave down to begin.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 02:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi R & B,

Looks like we are in the process of 'challenging' your neat downtrend channel, Rudy but the intraday chart(say 10min) looks as though we are nearing the completion(say at ~4354+) of a 5 wave impulse up from today's early low suggesting that the move from yesterday's low is probably a little zig-zag correction and we haven't quite finished the next upper degree wave count and trend down. I think this view is only confirmed on a close below ~4335 with a move above ~4375 needed to confirm the current degree downtrend has indeed changed.

Rudy, thanks for E.W. Rules & Regulations your post(no. 3867)...nice to have a 'compact' reminder list!

Cheers

Dolphin...swimming quietly in the calmer waters.


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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 02:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So where are we at with the XJO?

Based on my post 3863 the SPX is about to start a final 5th wave to complete its Minuette wave v of Minute wave circle iii. Using the time it took to complete Minuette wave i it could take about 3 days to complete its task.

So lets forget about EW for the moment and just look at Bollinger Bands and %R indicators. For the Weekly chart the XJO is showing the following.



We can see from the above chart and indicators that the price action has bounced down form the MBB and heading towards the LBB. The %R is confirming this trend for the time being.

Now looking at the Daily chart.



The above chart indicates that the MBB is sloping down and the price action has touched it. The %R indicator indicates that the price action has bounced at this point. Note that in the past we have had a similar instance and the bounce did not make it anywhere near the MBB before continuing down.

Now for the 30 minute chart.




We can see from the 30 minute chart that a bounce is underway and the price action is nearing the UBB and the %R indicator in indicating that we are getting into an over bought condition.

So as I read the above charts, they appear to suggest that whilst we are currently in a bounce condition, this bounce will not last and we will continue down in the next few days.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 02:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Yep, I would agree with that Zigzag reading. We probably also had a bit of an 'throw over' on that last leg up.

To me the normal TA perspective supports the EW analysis at the moment.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



KZL

As I expect the SPX to drop around 3% over the next couple of days as a minimum I thought that I had better pull out of the KZL trade and get in further down when the SPX is in it's wave (iv)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 04:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 EW Count

Whilst the EW count that I posted earlier today looks pretty good at present, one scenario that I have not discussed is the fact that it is quite possible that we have had a series of nested 1/2 waves and the index could in fact be getting ready for a set of nested wave 3's.

That scenario would be very bearish and see the index cascade down in a series of steps that would take the index down much further than what I suggested in my earlier post. It is a scenario that should be kept in the back of your minds. That is another reason why I thought that it was probably a good idea to get out of the KZL trade at this point in time. I wouldn't want to be sucked into a series of nested wave 3's and have the stock be sucked down with the general market. I would much rather wait until KZL confirmed that it had completed the c leg of its corrective pattern. I made an error in judgement trying to anticipate its earlier finish.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Thursday, August 26, 2010 - 10:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi rudy,

i agree and went short again this evening. doesn't look at all good on the charts

cheers
mm


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mastersl46
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Friday, August 27, 2010 - 03:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everybody!!
After demoralizing, brain overheating analysis, I came up with another possible count. Actually I will post 3 charts.
Rudy, have a look & let me know if this fits the criteria & Rudy, these counts could be wrong but what I am trying to convey is the a,b,c, of the 2nd.
XJO =


SPX =


FTSE =


Now the date of Aug 25 before was in fact a low, not a high as I mentioned and it hit 1040 nicely.
With this in mind the date of Aug 27 could go to plan for the XJO as tomorrow it may rise to around 4380 - 4400 before starting to fall again. The hitting of the trendline on the XJO at the top may be the best selling point. This date will also be a high point for the SPX.
After saying this a few times before, the third hasn't started yet!!
The C wave of the 2nd (see chart) if correct will come up to 1065 - 1070 tomorrow.
Wave A was 30 pts so Wave equality makes it 1070 as the target.(Also 1070 is 50% of last wave from July 2)
The crash date I have is Sept 2 with a turning point on the SPX for Sept 3. XJO = Sept 7.
What I am proposing is that on Sept 1 or 2 we will see a multi,multi point drop for all of the indexes. (50 - 60 pts for SPX) & the 3rd of the 3rd will finish on guess..... the 3RD!!! The XJO could also finish on Friday but could go to the 7th. No one needs to worry about shorting, actually THE BEST TIME TO DO IT WILL BE TOMORROW!! I am going to short the market when it hits between 1065 - 1070 tomorrow night.If the XJO goes anywhere near the 4400, thats the time to get in.
I don't want to sound like Prechter but we WILL see a large fall next week.
I am guessing we will hit 4050 - 4000 between the 3rd & the 7th. Then do a 4th wave on the 16th (could be 4150)(Options expiry day) & then go down for a 5th till the 24th of Sept(another date I have in the future). Puts that I am buying are 4400 Sept(for safety) & 4200 Sept (for risk).Could also buy 4200 or 4000 Oct puts. If this wave is connected to the former 2 than it may not go above 4172 for quite some time.
I am very confident the market will be below 4200 by the end of next week.
You can either crown me in riches & glory & hail me as SIR LORD CRASH MARKET KING when I am correct next week or stone me to death like a Super Annuation Fund Advisor telling me my money is safe with him if I am wrong (no offence to anyone reading this if they are actually a Super Fund advisor!) he he. (Crown & riches payable to Zoron Industries Ltd if wishing to donate).
Anyway thats my opinion & I understand that everyone has their own. The main thing is that if my charts could be possible, anything can be possible! If these charts can't be true, well then I am wrong & I apologize.
All the best & hope everyone makes a mill.


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paddy
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Friday, August 27, 2010 - 05:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy :

I see way points 1074± and 1013± to complete
this segment . Final target way point
is a L2 DF 0.618 and that has to be limit
as I see it .

Paddy


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billt
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Friday, August 27, 2010 - 07:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Everyone,

I have been caught up doing other things yesterday and today, so just a quick thanks Rudy for your posts yesterday. Perhaps that list plus your 'target' work should go into a word doc archive, as it would be very useful for EW newbies in the future.

Guys, I think I've changed my count.

I have not found the current proportionality of the count convincing. We had a massive Circle Wave i (shown as 1 on the following charts) and since then the count has restricted the flow of the pattern to my eye? Several posters on a US website (cant say the name, but lots of you may know) are suggesting that this current pattern will extend well below 900 on SPX - so another 20% or so to go. Some are suggesting a very elongated wave v, but I think this count makes a little more sense, if, like me, you feel this correction has only just begun to unfurl.

Here are two charts from one particular poster which perhaps gives food for thought. I particularly like the wave i of 3 channel, it flows from top to bottom pretty smoothly, and is more in keeping with what a wave 3 should be - like a thoroughbred in full stretch. The current pattern to me looks likes it wants to extend, like a rubber band beginning to be pulled!

The following charts suggest we are about to begin a significant iii of 3 push south.





Here is the drilled down version.



What do you think Rudy?

Bill


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rdumas
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Friday, August 27, 2010 - 08:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

I'll be back later to respond to Paddy and Lee's posts. Just as a bit of an appetiser, here is my count on the price action for the S&P500 overnight. The chart is a 2 minute chart so it really is looking at Elliott Wave through a magnifying glass, but as you can see EW works at any level. I will also expand a little later on my nested 1/2 and nested 3 waves. I notice that there are a few other EW analysts on other sites have gone to that count subsequent to it being suggested on this site so perhaps this thread has a much wider audience than I first suspected.

The chart below shows clearly that an impulse wave is almost completed at this magnified level.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, August 27, 2010 - 08:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nested 1/2 waves and 3 waves

Further to my comments about the nested 1/2 waves and nested 3 waves I should point out that they were not my original thoughts. My original thoughts about the EW count for the SPX were those that I have continued to post since the start of this thread.

The nested waves mentioned in my post yesterday afternoon were raised by a brilliant EW analyst at the following site. This group were offering a free week subscription a few days ago and I have found his EW analysis extremely interesting. For those interested check out the following site.

http://www.elliottwavegms.com/


The nesting suggested runs much along the chart that Bill posted a few minutes ago. As it was probably posted this morning I suspect that the author got the idea from the same site that I did. If you wonder what I think of it Bill, I reckon it has some real possibilities.

It is far more bearish than the count that I have been running with as it will create the situation where there will be a string of multi-layered wave 3's cascading down to the 1010 level that I mentioned some time ago (before I ran across the above website).

In my original EW count (which I will still run with for the time being) I anticipated that wave circle iii would probably terminate around the 1024 level and then perhaps after a rally in wave circle iv back up to around the 1055~1060 level that wave circle v would probably terminate at my 1010 level.

Naturally enough in the nested wave scenario, wave circle v would terminate much lower than this.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, August 27, 2010 - 10:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

My next question was going to be ‘what the hell is nesting!’

Well, I now know I began nesting on Wednesday (post 155) on my RUT Chart, I nested a bit more on Thursday (post 157) on my SPX Chart, then I nearly fell out of the nest in post 158, before laying my two eggs in post 161 today.

This particular eagle has landed.

I don’t mind a good ‘nest’, or as my Dad always told me ‘a bird in the hand is better than one in the bush’ (or was that the other way around?)

Anyway, I’m well and truly nested.

Bill



wait to you see how big this bird is!

(Mr E'Dubya of the Week?)

TSX Stocks 15-minute delayed

 
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