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Archive through August 20, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Our Daily Bread » Archive through August 20, 2010

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billt
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Post Number: 85
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 01:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



US Retail Sales & CPI figures released later tonight, before Wall Street opens.

SPX may try to achieve a relief rally, but these numbers will need to be better than the recent economic indicators to get the Bulls interested. I am still long on my Bear ETF’s, until further notice!

Back in the 'Land of the Free':

The economy is looking bleaker as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in almost six months. Initial Claims were forecast to go down but went up 484,000. It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent unemployment rate.

The number of U.S. homes lost to foreclosure surged in July, another sign lenders are moving quicker to take back properties from homeowners behind in payments. Lenders repossessed 92,858 properties last month, up 9 percent from June and an increase of 6 percent from July 2009

Growing pessimism over the weak economic recovery pushed mortgage rates to the lowest level in decades for the seventh time in eight weeks. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage hit 4.44 percent this week.

John Williams economist and editor of ShadowStats.com stated that he sees:

“ a systemic collapse in the US, a hyperinflationary great depression and the cessation of normal commerce. We're still seeing contractions in liquidity, and that's adjusted for inflation. In real terms, M3 money supply is down almost 8% year-over-year. It's the sharpest fall in the post -World War II era. It's not so much the depth of the decline in the liquidity or the duration, but the fact that the liquidity turns negative year-over-year that signals the economy turning down”.

Latest Numbers:

US National Debt $13.3 trillion & growing (Debt per Taxpayer $120,160)
US Debt to GDP 92% & growing
US Total Debt $54.0 trillion & growing ($174k per citizen)
US Workforce 138m
US Actual Unemployed 25m & growing
US Food Stamp Recipients 41m & growing

Outside the US it’s not that much better:

Public Debt to GDP
Japan 204%
Greece 126%
Germany 80%
UK 81%

External Debt to GDP
UK 422%
Portugal 249%
Greece 176%
Germany 145%


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billt
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 01:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Rud'meister

Seeing you are our 'resident expert' on 'the punt', surely you can use some E'Dubya stuff on these poli's.

- last start winners (opps thats labour)
- weight(julia carrying quite a load, mad monk very under WFA)
- form (both pretty crook)
- breeding (both pommies, not sure that helps)
- mud runner (must be julia from wales)
- closing 600m (tony in his speedo's)

Come on , help us out!

Bill







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pjf000
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 01:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Latest Numbers:

US National Debt $13.3 trillion & growing (Debt per Taxpayer $120,160)
US Debt to GDP 92% & growing
US Total Debt $54.0 trillion & growing ($174k per citizen)
US Workforce 138m
US Actual Unemployed 25m & growing
US Food Stamp Recipients 41m & growing

Outside the US it’s not that much better:

Public Debt to GDP
Japan 204%
Greece 126%
Germany 80%
UK 81%

External Debt to GDP
UK 422%
Portugal 249%
Greece 176%
Germany 145%



All this debt! Who is the creditor? and what are they going to do about it when it doesn't get paid?!}}}


Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

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ken
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 02:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody,

I posted this link at the start of the HO thread 5 years ago - have a read of what you need to in the thread under indicators.

http://safehaven.com/article-3880.htm

(Message edited by ken on August 13, 2010)


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ody
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 03:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

Many thanks. Very interesting and helpful.


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ody
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 03:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Campaigning for Obama ...

This is an ad for Obama and the Democrat vote in the US just now. It seems clear where our Labor party gets some of its most irritating phrases and general claims from:

"This year's elections offer a stark choice between Democrats who are moving our country forward, and Republicans who want to return to the failed policies of the past. We can't afford to go backward, and moving forward starts with your own promise to cast your ballot."

Admittedly, George W. Bush was a less capable leader than Howard, and Obama is worlds better than Rudd/Gillard. So in the US one can actually see some sense in what is said. Here, to my mind not at all. Even Gillard's language is totally vacuous and imitative.


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rdumas
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 04:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

I've been out all day dining with family so have only just returned home. Talking about 'long Friday lunches'.

The problem with horse races is that that there are usually a number of horses in a race, each with trainers and owners that have a million and one hidden agenda's so that 'all of the form' is not quite exposed. None the less when taken over a long period of time once you take the bookies margin out of the equation, the 'starting price' (ie the price of the horse's chance of winning just as the barriers open) turns into a reasonable probability of the real chances of each horse winning.

In a two horse race such as betting on things like a football competition you can still get upsets for various reasons (not all of them legal in my view). In an election however both parties are actually trying to win the race because unlike horse races or footy games these elections don't happen every day. That tends to eliminate many of the 'funny business' type of anomalies that occur in other events.

For that reason there is a lot of 'smart' money putting the bets on with the bookies. The bookies don't care who will win, all they have to concern themselves with is to 'balance the books' so that they take home some money regardless of who wins. With the odds displayed on the CenterBet website that I posted it means that approximately 66.67% of the money is riding on Labour to win and around 31.06% riding on the Coalition to win and the bookie keeps the margin (difference). Now whilst the $2 punter may have a bet based on a whim, the big money people do a lot of in depth study. It's called smart money because they usually know what they are doing with their money.

I'm not sure if that explains it clearly enough but its the best I can do.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ody
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 04:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy: betting parties to win or lose elections

That's excellent, Rudy. I thought that it would have to occur in the way you describe, as otherwise some people who presumably don't bet lightly would stand to lose big sums. That will no doubt still happen, as only a number of them will win, but you confirm what I thought when I wrote:
---
Would it be the case that the majority of those who place the bets are actually very well-informed, researching all the crucial marginal/swinging seats, etc? I imagine that might be so, because their money would be at stake, so it would literally pay to do one's homework and "get it right".
--

Thanks for the post.


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billt
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 04:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

I'm not sure your response was to my 86?

I made a wrong call before - this is a 'Maiden Handicap', as neither Julia or Tony are 'last start winners' nor have they won anything before.

'The Ranga' of course, protested 2nd against 1st (krudd), and that protest was recently upheld by the stewards (Labor faction guys), but very late in the day...

'Mad Munk', protested 3rd against 2nd, and of course the protest was upheld. Prior to that, 'The Toff' protested 2nd against 1st - and his protest was upheld too. The original winner was either 'put down' or 'put out to stud' - unfortunately no one remembers him.

The Top Weight, 'Big Joe', thought he'd won but of course found 'the going' too tough and the 'Mad Munk' got up on the rails to win by a 'budgie smuggler'.

Not sure where 'The Late Money' might go at this stage, The Fishing Party might make a surprise late run. They just want to catch BIG fish - bigger, the better...




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rdumas
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 04:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hehehehehehehe. I recognised you immediately I saw that photo but who is that guy in the background giving you a hug?

Gotta go. Until the WEMW.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 05:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi pjf

You asked "All this debt! Who is the creditor? and what are they going to do about it when it doesn't get paid"

US National Debt

Much of that debt is held by private sector, but about 40 percent is held by public entities, including parts of the government. The serious concern is that a significant part of this debt is held against superannuation and pension income for the American population. However, if the US implodes so does every facit of the system.

The top 10 are:

1. The biggest holder of US government debt is actually inside the United States. The Federal Reserve system of banks and other US intragovernmental holdings account for a stunning $5.2 trillion in US Treasury debt.

2. Investors/Savings Bonds $1.2 trillion

3. China $867 b

4. Japan $786 b

5. Mutual Funds $663 b

6. State & Local Governments $531 b

7. Pension Funds $513 b

8. UK $350 b

9. Insurance Companies $ 235 b

10. Depository Institutions $206 b


The USA is issuing a further $100 b per month to pay their bills! China, Japan, and UK does not want to buy anymore...so the printing presses just keep printing.

US National Debt is $13.3 trillion, but that’s nothing! US Total Personal Debt is a staggering $16.2 trillion!!

Sustainable - not likely!


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billt
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 05:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi again pjf

I forgot to add!

On top of the US Debt of $13 trillion, and the US Total Personal Debt of $16 trillion, the big worry is the US Unfunded Liabilities of $110 trillion (Health & Social Security). How do they pay for that!

…But the Grand Daddy of them all is the US Currency & Credit Derivatives at $620 trillion – this is funny money paper stuff! Don't even ask!!

That's just the US, the same story goes for Europe/UK & Japan.


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billt
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 05:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

No I'm not the fish! Here's one for you to keep:




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rdumas
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Friday, August 13, 2010 - 06:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gosh you're a handsome sort of a bloke. Here's one of me.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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pjf000
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Saturday, August 14, 2010 - 02:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bill,
I was just checking if it was time to be learning to speak Mandarin yet!


Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

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billt
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Saturday, August 14, 2010 - 03:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi pjf

Na', don't worry about the Chinamen, they will view it as a donation. There too busy buying Mercs & BMW's...

The real worry is the 300 million really unhappy people inside the US...think what they could do with all those guns?

However, we might not get there in any event - this might be next week's issue:

Israel prepares for strike

"Russia's nuclear agency said Friday that it will load fuel into Iran's first nuclear power plant next week, defying U.S. calls to hold off the start of the launch. Rosatom spokesman Sergei Novikov said Friday that uranium fuel shipped by Russia will be loaded into the Bushehr reactor on Aug. 21."

Unfortunately, Uncle Sam is sitting right between them in Iraq & the Persian Gulf...


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gdd3
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Saturday, August 14, 2010 - 11:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Ms Gillard,

Please find below our suggestion for fixing Australia's economy.

Instead of giving billions of dollars to banks that will squander the money on lavish parties and unearned bonuses, use the following plan.

You can call it the Patriotic Retirement Plan:

There are about 10 million people over 50 in the work force.
Pay them $1 million each severance for early retirement with the following stipulations:

1) They MUST retire. Ten million job openings -
Unemployment fixed

2) They MUST buy a new Australian car. Ten million cars ordered -
Car Industry fixed

3) They MUST either buy a house or pay off their mortgage -
Housing Crisis fixed

4) They MUST send their kids to school/TAFE/university -
Crime rate fixed

5) They MUST buy $100 WORTH of alcohol/tobacco a week ......and

There's your money back in duty/tax etc.

6) Instead of stuffing around with the carbon emissions trading scheme that makes us pay for the major polluters, tell the greedy b's to reduce their pollutions emissions by 75% within 5 years or we shut them down....it can't get any easier than that!

P.S. If more money is needed, simply have all members of parliament pay back their falsely claimed expenses and second home allowances!


Yours sincerely,

The people of Australia

If you think this would work, please forward to everyone you know. If not, please disregard.


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rdumas
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 11:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If Deflation wins, what will the GOLD stocks do?

Hi Folks,

Here is a very interesting article from the SafeHaven website on what GOLD can do under a deflationary scenario.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17817/if-deflation-wins-what-will-gold-stocks-d o


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 12:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dolphin,

Looks to me like an American joke redone for Australia. We certainly don't have 10 million over 50 in the workforce. I don't think we have 10 million over 50 in total.

We don't have the same unemployment or car industry problems.

Looks American to me.

Ken


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ody
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 12:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy: Safehaven and gold

I like the piece, Rudy, and (one might almost say "of course") I like the website in general.

The point about deflation automatically leading to inflation seems to me right, and also therefore the longer-term prediction that gold, i.e. physical gold, or gold stocks (if you get the right ones!) might do very well. But this still leaves me with difficulties. One is timing. The other one is the FORM chosen ... Not all gold stocks, for example, perform similarly brilliantly. ETF GOLD has some complexities of its own. And buying physical gold has different drawbacks again, although that is what Safehaven seems to prefer.

I find it quite a quandary, myself. I could well see the A$ falling on weaker commodities, although the problems in the US are such that I am not sure that the US dollar will necessarily do well, particularly when once most people have moved out of growth assets and bought bonds. In general, I would think most countries will face lower standards of living, which will affect us all, and its not necessarily a bad thing after an artificial and wasteful period of self-indulgence based on debt.

For us retirees, it will in any case be necessary to generate significant cash, as gold cannot be eaten, so to speak, and we do need cashflow. Actually that is true of most people, e.g. those paying off mortgages. So my feelings about gold do remain somewhat mixed at this stage. However, if we do see a significant sell-off (we are already nicely down since 15 April) continue, then perhaps, notably if gold is at all part of that process, it will go to a price that makes it an extremely attractive buy.

I would add that the issue of needing gold is a particularly burning one in the US because yields there are so low.


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jaded
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 01:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ken-also 10million x 1 million is an American 10Trillion.
In British thats a Billion[million million] but such numeracy terminology is passe/forgotten.
So the proposal is for $10trillion and just silly.sounds good to the uneconomic but.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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rdumas
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 03:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

I'm not all that interested in ETF GOLD in the short term anyway as I believe that we have still got a reasonable amount of downside in it yet. I do however remain bullish on the POG for the long term and once we really do go into what I believe will be a very bad crash in equities next year the AUD will go down with it. So for me ETF GOLD is in the oven waiting for it to be primed to go.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Apologies to the ODB readers and contributors, my post No.966 above was suppose to go in the "The Back Page" topic under the "The Joke of the Day 2010" thread....side tracked 'copying and pasting' I guess(Ody, you should understand) and too late to edit!


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billt
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 05:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody/Rudy

I tend to feel that at some point, it will be essential to have a bucket full of physical Australian Kangaroo Gold Coins or Gold Bars.

I have significant worries about the actual bullion bank reserves supporting ETF Gold. The ETF has really gone sideways over the past 24 months, principally due to the stronger $AUD.

As and when the stock markets collapse, and the $AUD plummets, it is difficult to see what security or asset will protect your wealth.

Cash will erode in value, as will any fixed interest or bonds.

At least with a “kangaroo” you can always cash them in as you need some income. It’s boring – but it might be the only asset that retains it’s value!

Jaggards’ 10 fundamental reasons to own gold
1. Gold remains ultimate form of payment - No counter party risk
2. Currency debasement - US Dollar losing status as world reserve currency
3. Gold crawling back into the monetary system
4. Negative real rates
5. Falling gold supply vs increased investment demand
6. Gold & Historic averages - gold should be trading above $2500 these days
7. DOW/GOLD ratio points to $5.000+ gold before 2015
8. Gold & US public debt - gold prices required to counter balance all US public debt held in foreign hands exceed the $10.000 mark
9. Large short positions - half of all central bank's gold has been leased into the market. (about 15.000 tons). Covering these short positions is not possible without catapulting gold prices to unimaginable highs.
10. Gold acting as safe haven in times of rising geopolitical tensions

Perhaps the better option is to buy 'Kangaroo's' prior to the ultimate market collapse.


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billt
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 06:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



One thing to add:

In the last 5 years, XJO has risen 1% in 5 years, whilst XAUAUD has risen 136%. Has the time already arrived to begin buying into the dips?


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ody
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Sunday, August 15, 2010 - 06:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill - XJO vs XAUAUD

I agree with you that there is indeed a longer-term case for gold, and that it may well be quite a bit better to buy actual ("official") gold bars and/or coins. A drawback with coins is that they have to be in absolutely mint condition, so in a way they are more complicated than bars/ingots.

When you speak of "dips" and buying into them, I imagine you mean dips in the gold price. Surely, with the XJO being such a poor performer over those 5 years, and perspectives so mediocre for the short/medium term, gold would be the thing to go after. The XJO was excellent from early 2003 to late 2007, for those who knew how to play it (necessary even then), but its trouble is that it is an erratic performer, and one is wise to be out of it for fairly lengthy periods (unless a rapid trader) outside such periods of relative safety. So, if one is not hopeful for the short to medium term as regards the XJO, then surely the thing to do, for those who are convinced that gold WILL rise, is to look for a lowish gold price and buy into that?

Or do I misunderstand you?

Interesting stuff, by the way. I agree with you that when the chips are really down (not just the blue chips), then money will itself be losing value too, and that loss will not be adequately compensated for in terms of yield. The major advantage of having a substantial yield over a substantial amount of cash/fixed interest is that it makes it possible to pay the bills and save some money for the future (both capital and unspent yield): but one's worry is that the value of the capital gets eroded, or cut back, by a decline in the value of money. To the extent that money will indeed lose value, it would be good to have one asset, at least, that is likely to go up more in value than money, or at least will preserve value more, in money terms, than money itself will do.

So I think your reasoning is quite sound. That means watching the gold price with considerable care, and trying to predict where it will go.


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ody
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 12:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Australia mining seen as 'risky prospect'

* Damon Kitney and Annabel Hepworth
* From: The Australian
* August 16, 2010 12:00AM

LEIGHTON Holdings chief executive Wal King has fired a warning.

Australia is in danger of losing major mining investments to offshore rivals because of increased concerns about sovereign risk.

Mr King told The Australian that the "irrational, severe and abrupt" changes to the mining tax regime had created a perception that Australia had become a riskier place for local and international mining companies to invest.

Asked if the revised minerals resource rent tax had allayed concerns, Mr King replied with a blunt "No".

"Sovereign risk is on one hand reality, and the other hand perception," Mr King said.

"And perception can be reality. And there is a perception floating around that sovereign risk in Australia has increased.

"There are major mining companies now that, three years ago, would have considered Australia as the top of the pops to invest. Those mining companies are now saying that maybe there are alternatives. That is yet to be played out. And that is the problem."

Resources Minister Martin Ferguson recently claimed the mining tax debate had effectively been settled, despite the West Australian Chamber of Minerals and Energy saying it had major unresolved concerns about the proposed tax.

Small miners in WA continue to wage an advertising campaign against the mineral resources rent tax, arguing they will be disproportionately affected by it compared with big miners BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata.

Tony Abbott has pledged to scrap the tax if elected.

Malcolm Broomhead, chairman of Asciano and a director of BHP Billiton, said concerns about sovereign risk had arisen before the resource tax debacle.

"Certainly the feedback that I've had from markets offshore is that they regard Australian sovereign risk as having increased as a result of that proposal, even though that proposal may be watered down or altered or even not proceeded with, depending on who wins power," Mr Broomhead said.

Transfield Services chairman Tony Shepherd said it remained to be seen whether the modified form of the tax would be acceptable to international investors.

"The feedback I've got, and I've been to Canada recently, is that it was regarded as a sudden shift in direction and change in direction by Australia, which did in fact spook, I think, miners and financiers overseas," Mr Shepherd said.

Their comments have been supported in recent weeks by Mark Cutifani, the chief executive of South African gold giant AngloGold Ashanti.

However, the world's two largest gold producers, Barrick Gold Corporation and Newmont Mining, have indicated that Australia remains on their radar for investment.

Away from the mining sector, Infrastructure Partnerships Australia chairman Mark Birrell said the NSW government's decision to abandon the Sydney Metro bid at late notice sent a poor signal to potential offshore investors in infrastructure.


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rdumas
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 07:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We've heard it all before but it would appear that more and more people are starting to wake up. The next few years should be very interesting.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-11/u-s-is-bankrupt-and-we-don-t-even-know- commentary-by-laurence-kotlikoff.html


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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baysider
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 07:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody
Sorry for not posting for a few months, as I mentioned last time I wrote I've been busy working to develop a new business idea under the inspirational guidance of Eugene. As you know he's 80 going on 18! Well this weekend I was finally able to launch the concept and I hope Colin won't mind if I mention the name of it here as you did express an interest to see what we'd come up with. It's your favourite, a retail business but online only. I'd be delighted if you'd have a look around the concept and if you've any feedback maybe send me a private mail not to disrupt this thread. The link is:
www.fetchboy.com.au
Maybe something for Cat Lady there as well??

Regards to all and well done to Rudy, MM, Rash and Bill for the incredible accuracy of their forecasts. I have been following if not posting with great interest.
Cheers
Baysider


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billt
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 08:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody

Gold

I agree with your analysis on 5314.

For those interested in the direction of gold, can I suggest you study Rudy’s posts 3772 & 3774 on his Thread EWW. Excellent homework from Rudy - as usual!

Based upon EW and Cycle Analysis, Rudy is of the view that we have a wave v leg to complete shortly, then the final corrective leg down, before commencing a very strong wave 3 event.

My post 67 on EWW, showed an alternative count putting us in a Grand Supercycle III, Supercycle (III), Cycle III wave pattern. If the corrective pattern completed on 28 July 2010, we may have already started the commencement of wave 3 and a multi year rally.

Both counts are valid, but I favor the more cautious count of Rudy’s until proven invalid. They both end up at the same destination.

Based upon Rudy’s count, we may a better entry level at the completion of the ABC pattern. Alternatively if the alternative count proves correct, the low on ETF Gold a few weeks back may have been it!

I intend to continue to trade Etf Gold, buying when there is a simultaneous POG rally and a $AUD correction or if POG takes off.

At some point, buying the hard shiny bars will be on the agenda.

The 'Kangaroos' come in heavily protected wrapping - maybe 'FetchBoy' could add them to the basket!


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ken
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 06:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello all,

We have tonight another of what passes on our market as a Hindenberg Omen, having more than 2.2% of issues traded as both new highs and new lows.

Look out below?

Ken


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billt
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 06:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting to see that XAUUSDO Gold (POG) pushed through the previous resistance of usd $1217 today, to reach $1220 in intra day trading. If it finds support here, there is now ‘blue sky’ until usd$1249. It is in a wave v so it could over extend.

The $AUDUSD looks to be a similar pattern to XJO, heading into a bearish wave 3 event. If the XJO takes out the 6 July low, the ‘Aussie’ could come back to 83c fairly quickly.

Etf GOLD is getting benefit from both the rising POG and the weakening $AUD. Etf GOLD has risen 8% since 28 July. Perhaps GOLD has another 10% to go. Could it hit a possible 2010 high?

I’m holding a big chunk – so I’m talking up my book!


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baysider
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Monday, August 16, 2010 - 08:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tee hee, nice one Billt - steady on though or you'll be giving me ideas!

Enjoy your postings, keep them coming - I have a little bit of GOLD and some NCM to keep them company so I hope you're right about the wave pattern.


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billt
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 10:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Rudy

I forgot to tell you… your forecast for a market top late July or early August did come true.

The US Russell 2000 Small Caps topped out on 27 July, the same day POG began it’s rally! How did we miss that?

I'm on both of those fillies, so your timing once again was impeccable.

Bill


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market_mad
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 03:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well done Rudy!!

I'm taking it that you and the wife will be dining on lobster tonight then!

With the index right in my target range also, I've just taken some more shorts and will turn off the computer now as I plan to hold these for a while and don't want to watch if this contiues to go up!! (Not that I think it will mind you)

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 03:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

From the way the odds are looking for the Federal election, it would appear that the odds are coming in even further for a Labour Party victory.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 04:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX500...

Boy its very hard to hold on to a 'not so bearish' scenario as most are holding onto here but I post these following charts to stimulate any of us who are still not entirely convinced we are to 'thump-down' from near current levels.

Having said that both the charts and 'arguements' I'm submitting here are, as expected, showing clearly that we are at critical 'short-term' levels that must hold to validate the more (short-term) 'bullish' scenario possibility being presented.

The first chart shows one of the structural wave relationships evident since its swift/sharp, clearly impulsive, wave up from the Feb. swing low to the April swing high. If we take that range as a 100% range then you can see that we retraced almost exactly 100%(in a diagonal more volatile fashion) down to the June double bottom, followed by another swift/sharp wave up to exactly 50% of the original range to the June 21st Astro date. This is all represented by the white swing lines and the dark blue Fibo lines.

Now as "history repeats"(i.e. in a T/A perspective) if we look at the next swings that have occurred from the June 21st swing high it could be argued that the same pattern is playing out again. Starting with a new 100% range(June 21st to July 1st), a swift/sharp fall....equal to 66.7% of the original range....we then had a 100% 'retrace', that was also in a 'diagonal/volatile' fashion, followed so far by a swift 50% retrace down(this all is highlighted by the light blue swing lines and the pink Fibo's). Now, just maybe we have to have a run up equal to 66.7% of the 2nd range to 'balance out' this 'market'! That would mean a swift run up towards 1150. Maybe, but the SPX can't get much below last night's low for all this to hold valid...so we will see!






The second chart of the SPX is an updated chart that I presented back on July 21st under the "Markets" Topic on the T/A on the S&P500 Thread. Action as hinted then did play out until meeting the ~1130 resistance however we were never able to trade above the mid-point of the A-Pitchfork even though we break NNE of the yellow downtrend line with any conviction. Now, with last week's swift selloff we the SPX has found itself back to the confluence of the main yellow downtrend line and the bottom support line of the A-Pitchfork shown. Remember, this zone is also the 50% retracement of the last swing leg up and within cooeee of the inner sideway's range(thick orange lines). Whilst most momentum indicators have turned down and probably confirmed the medium-term bearish outlook favoured on this thread some indicators(in the short-term) do support at least a two day rally if not more. For example, both the William's%R's illustrated here are at oversold levels but more significantly(from my perspective) are showing repeat (short-term)bottoming patterns that I like to find for my TAZ trades. These are shown by the yellow boxes on the indicators on the chart below.




So, in summary, I guess I'm saying that one can not rule out a surprise in this market in the coming day's....enough to created doubts...oh, well time will tell!

Please, guy's allow me a few day's before you start throwing eggs!(just joshin').

Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 04:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I can easily understand anyone having a bullish view of the market at this stage purely from a traditional technical analysis perspective. There are so many indicators that are indicating that we are either 'oversold' or on the way up as can be seen by the Slow Stochastic indicator in the chart below.






The XJO and some of the large cap stocks are showing Slow Stochastic indicators which are on the trip up.


What the the S&P500 must do in order to prove that it can sustain a rally however is to get above both the 50 day EWA and the 200 day EMA (ie, the short term and long term moving averages). At present it still has the task ahead of itself.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ody
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 04:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Market going up

I can think of at least two possible reasons why this might be so.

(1) Most importantly: spot prices on Kitco are up. Commodities are really THE most important factor for Australia, with little else for us to hang on to, at least in the short term (longer-term we may do OK with e.g. food).

(2) Whether Labor wins or the Coalition (it will probably be the former), the election is now near. On past precedent, I would have to say that usually markets are hesitant during election contests, as they create uncertainty. It is also known, however, that - whoever wins - a "that is out of the way" rally usually occurs once the election is over. Since that pattern is normally expected, the smart money frequently gets in on the act a few days before the election is held (unless an absolutely disastrous outcome is expected, which would cause Armageddon, and there is no such thing).

How the money then moves subsequent to the election depends on the outcome, but often something like a relief rally (from uncertainty) occurs, and I think today's traders are expecting that, which would confirm why they are taking the market up.

Heaven help us if Gillard gets in, though, as far as the longer term is concerned. She'll mess up the economy, and thus also the share market, if given enough time.

Possibly, however, her tenure during the next period would create some fantastic opportunities through her and Labor's incompetence. One could imagine the index really plummeting at some point as a result of governmental stupidity.

With Abbott nothing like that is likely. While people have a mistaken and economically irrelevant image of Abbott based on his past he would be quite a steady hand compared with Gillard, as the overall approach would be economically cautious. Hence there would probably be less volatility if he managed to get in.

For the punters ON THE MARKET, at this stage, it is no great concern who wins: they know that there is now no longer much of a wait before "certainty" returns.

For the bookies and the gamblers it's a matter of Gillard being the likely winner. If, miraculously, they are wrong, then, for some people who have swum against the tide, there are some huge profits.


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billt
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 05:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Dolphin

It is good to get an alternative view.

As mentioned previously, another EW Bull Hero, Anthony Caldaro, has on his EW count, SuperCycle 3 commencing at the March 09 low, and the recent SPX low of 1010 low commenced Primary Wave 3. So all Bulls should be filling their boots up, as 3 of 3 of 3 is ready for launch! His count remains valid until the SPX hits 956. So you are not alone!

Rudy has a very different set of Scenario's, and of course has passed his own view on Caldaro before.

Of particular concern to the Bull view is the record low volumes wanting to take this market higher.

With the US experiencing declining GDP, growing unemployment which is perhaps worse than officially released, a wildly excessive deficit and crippling debt for generations to come, it is just very hard to see how the SPX can do anything better than trade sideways at best or head south. Coupled with that, we have currently a raft of monthly US economic indicators which are just getting worse.

I am expecting a brief relief Wave 2 rally on the SPX this week, but what follows might prove decisive and pretty ugly.

But hey, it could do something completely different...

Bill


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billt
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 05:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Etf GOLD

I expect to sell my entire GOLD holdings as soon as the POG hits usd$1238. It is in wave v, and is currently $1226 and rising.

I expect the Central Banks to step in and short their positions to stop the rally. Half of all the Central Bank's gold has been leased into the market for this very purpose. USA needs to sell $100 billion a month in US Bonds, so they can't afford to get people too excited about buying gold instead.

$1238 forms a very useful Head & Shoulders pattern for the Central Banks to mess with the the Gold's 'Berma Bull' heads!

Rudy believes this is wave B of an ABC correction, which adds further reason for concern.

However, if it takes out $1265 I will be back in a flash!


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market_mad
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 10:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

I see that BHP have announced a takeover of Intrepid Potash for $38 billion!! BHP shares down 2.5% in London and with the US futures up quite strongly at the moment our futures are just in the positive.

I suspect that Rudy's timing of 'in and out' of BHP today was another stroke of genius.

Given this offer and the weighting that BHP has on our index I suspect we could have a down day tomorrow even if the US performs tonight.

Cheers
MM


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eagle
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010 - 11:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Payback for Agrium (Canadian) bidding for AWB?

To me the BHP bid makes sense - and for the same reason that Agrium is going for AWB. The pending scarcity of agricultural land and resources (fertiliser etc) makes the agricultural sector a good long term play. Potash is one of the fertiliser elements which is in only a few hands. Makes sense that BHP want to be in such a market (like iron ore).

If successful I'm sure it will add to BHP cash flow in future years but a big dent in the year you fork out $38Bn!!


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ody
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - 12:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Housing bear warns again of bubble waiting to burst
Clancy Yeates
August 18, 2010 [Sydney Morning Herald]

AN ARMY of loss-making landlords threatens to deflate Australian house prices, posing a risk to economic stability, a leading analyst has warned.

Morgan Stanley's equity strategist, Gerard Minack, has joined a growing number of observers to claim house prices are a bubble that has raised the level of risk in the economy.

While local house prices have defied global trends in recent years, Mr Minack argued their explosion in the past decade had forced them well beyond ''fair value''.

In a note to clients yesterday, he argued measures of value - such as house prices compared with rental returns or household disposable income - suggested they were overvalued by 35 to 50 per cent.

While this claim echoes recent concerns from abroad, such as those made by the Economist magazine and US hedge fund investor Jeremy Grantham, Mr Minack's view differed through its emphasis on an ''army of loss-making middle class landlords''.

According to Tax Office figures, the proportion of taxpayers who own rental property has swelled from 6.5 per cent in 1989 to 13.5 per cent in 2009, two thirds of whom claim a loss on their investments.

Mr Minack, who has long been concerned over the level of debt in Australia, said 80 per cent of the owners of these loss-making properties earned below $80,000. He said this debunked the ''myth'' that most debt was held by high income earners who could withstand shocks to income.

The strategist said a long period of flat house prices could prompt swathes of property investors to sell out, driving down prices.

This represented a more imminent threat than a wave of job losses, which looks unlikely in the mining boom. But unlike other housing bears, he said any fall in prices was likely to be gradual than sudden.

''Dodging the worst of the global financial crisis didn't demonstrate that there's no bubble. In my view it just showed that we dodged the prick,'' the note said. ''However, the risk of big price declines in the near-term seems low.''

Mr Minack's view contrasts with many economists, who say house price increases reflect a shortage of supply amid surging demand.

The property boom has been especially pronounced in Melbourne, where the median house price has nearly doubled this decade. Sydney prices have risen more modestly, including a slump after 2004 before a surge last year.

RP Data figures showed a slight fall in June after 17 months in a row of increases.


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billt
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Hi Everyone,

ALERT!

I noted overnight that in the US the $CPCE (CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio) INDX has rocketed parabolic to 1.07.

The last time it had such a significant movement was just before the April 2010 SPX high of 1219.80. The SPX fell 20% in the following 8 week period.

The last time the $CPCE reached 1.07, the SPX was at the end of December 2008, when the SPX was at 943. The SPX fell 41% in the following 8 week period.

Can anyone put any light on why the $CPCE may have gone ballistic, other than an extremely imminent market collapse?

Most of the EW guys have us about to commence a very bearish wave 3 event.

I expect a big gap at the open on the SPX tonight, if this indicator is of any value.

Any thoughts anyone?

Bill


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billt
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Thursday, August 19, 2010 - 08:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This is very odd - was it a 'fat finger'???

Since posting a few minutes ago, the $CPCE index has returned to normal levels, with no sign of the 1.07 level .....it was definitely posting a huge spike?


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billt
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Friday, August 20, 2010 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For those interested in gold, check out a CNBC Squawk Box Europe interview with Egon von Greyerz from the Zurich Stock exchange on http://jsmineset.com/

On the SPX overnight Wave 2 completed at 1100, and we are now in for a few anxious days. Wave 3 should take us to 1010.

Again in the US overnight the $CPCE (CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio) INDX rocketed parabolic, before a pullback. Another 'fat finger'?


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rdumas
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Friday, August 20, 2010 - 08:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Betting on the Elections

Well we can't say that the elections are boring. We appear to have polls suggesting that it's neck and neck. So what do the bookies say. Actually it's not the bookies, its the money being held by the bookies.









As you can see as far as the money goes, Labour will win. That doesn't mean that it won't be close but just remember that for punters, there is not difference between a win by nose or a win by a mile. A win is a win is a win. I just hope that they're wrong but I guess if they're right even though the country will be broke, we'll have faster internet.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, August 20, 2010 - 12:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



News from across the Pacific:

Warning from the non-partisan US Congressional Budget Office

Deficit $1.34 trillion - 9.3% of GDP; Debt $13.35 trillion – 92.2% of GDP

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy faces difficult times ahead with chronic unemployment and slow manufacturing hurting the pace of recovery, the head of Congress' budget agency said on Thursday.

The warning from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office came on top of more bad U.S. economic data that heightened concerns about a return to recession, roiling markets.

The CBO forecast the U.S. budget deficit will hit $1.34 trillion this year.

But the figures show that without significant changes in U.S. tax and spending laws, the government will struggle to dig its way out of a deep fiscal deficit hole.


Weekly Jobless Claims Post Surprise Jump, Hit 500,000

Officially unemployed 14.6m; Actual Unemployed 25.2m; Food Stamps 41.7m

New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to a nine-month high last week, yet another setback to the frail economic recovery.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 500,000 in the week ended August 14, the highest since mid-November, the Labor Department said on Thursday.







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ody
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Rudy: betting on the election

Rudy, betting is shifting towards the Coalition now, in view of the growing conviction that Newspoll's score of a mere 35% primary vote for Labor is correct, and that with that percentage there is a considerable chance that it will lose. As in the case of opinion polls, recorded bets, too, tend to lag behind a shifting reality if that reality is indeed in the process of shifting.

It would appear that in the last few days sentiment has been shifting back to the Coalition, with the result that votes are now apparently at the same level as when Rudd was rolled, i.e. when Labor felt it would lose. That is also why Gillard promised money to the dads yesterday morning, and is now complaining that she would feel "devastated" if she lost.

Doubtless, therefore, there will still be some very big bets on a Coalition win.

I say "doubtless" because it is my sense that this will happen - it can be no more than a sense. Nor am I suggesting that my conviction is strong enough to place a bet myself. Indeed, I am still worrying about a Labor win. However, I am now back to the position, intellectually, where I was before the Rudd-Gillard meeting, when I did believe that a Coalition win was at least a solid *possibility*. That meeting made matters easier, temporarily, for Gillard from there on. But now she has been slipping, and if this means that her momentum is drying up, as I suspect, we could indeed have a Coalition victory.

It will be interesting to see if the punters grasp this, and move their money in a big enough way.

The sober position would have to be, frankly, that the result is at this stage wide open: the Coalition has unquestionably been making recent gains, but polls do not reflect what people think RIGHT NOW. This election is very volatile: Coalition figures may still be moving up, but it is also possible that Labor's ferocity is already producing a powerful counter-move. Polls are always behind the times: that is their most serious limitation. But that is true of betting records as well, as the knowledge of the punters is also limited and guided by the past rather than the present.
So I would suggest that as yet it is too early to judge from either polls or betting: we should know a bit more by tonight, but I fear that it is only the one and only true poll that this time will definitely "get it right".

I have no immediate recollection of an important poll this tight: even in the case of the Hewson loss - the only result, for years, which I did not forecast correctly - one could only have come to the correct conclusion, which Newspoll/The Australian did, early in the morning of the day of the election. In that case, however, the late shift was perhaps clearer than now, although probably not by much.

If the shift to the Coalition is real and has genuine momentum, then Gillard would lose because there are not enough seats for her to win in South Australia and Victoria to compensate for seats lost in NSW, Queensland, and WA. The overall result in percentage terms will mean very little: it is the marginals which will decide, and that is where Gillard is extremely vulnerable. My own worry, however, is that Victoria and SA will just manage to get her across the line. If she loses, it will probably be because Labor losses in NSW would be bigger than until recently expected.

Already, I would dare to predict that a Gillard victory would not only be a disaster for the country, but that as a consequence next time Labor would be absolutely routed.

I add that this election has been quite exceptionally hard to predict, and remains so. By comparison it was as easy to see Fraser win against Whitlam, or Hawke against Fraser, or Howard against Keating, or Rudd against Howard, as to predict the major share market crashes we have seen from 1987 on. In all of these instances there was, to my mind, no excuse for not getting it right. But this election so far does read like a "cliffhanger", and the various factors one must disentangle to get a correct forecast are unusually intricate.

Those who want to punt on shares: if you believe in an Abbott victory then probably minor mining companies which would suffer under Gillard would be good to buy, as they are sure to gain greatly from the fact that there would be no mining tax to cripple them, so that investors would wade in and buy. The major companies with which Gillard has done a deal are not really in play, politically or financially. As always, the big gains will be made by those who buy ahead of time: if you leave the decision until Monday you are on the late side!

 
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