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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through September 06, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 06, 2010

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billt
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Post Number: 183
Registered: 02-2010

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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 02:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hot numbers from Astro Boy re: SPX

"Need to watch out for a recovery about 1055. But if the slope of dope is down ... 1015, 967, 926, 876"

1015 looks a reasonable target for your wave (v) circle Rudy, and 967 is pretty close to the 965 target for iii of (iii) circle on the 'nested' option.


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rdumas
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Post Number: 3904
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 02:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I'm a bit strapped for time but I will try and answer your questions starting from the top.

Thanks for your charts Rudy. On your post 3902, I can spot the differences in your corrected count. Could you explain 'the rules' relating to the continuation count - i'm a bit vague on that knowledge? Also, if your circle (v) pattern concludes how do you see the pattern from there? I guess an ABC might be favorite....what's your thoughts?


I'm not really sure of what you mean by the 'continuation count' Bill so I can't answer that question.

Once wave circle v completed that would bring to an end an impulse wave at the Minute level. Now since wave circle i had a range of 59.75 and wave circle iii had a range of 60.45 it leads me to be very suspicious because that feels more like a Zigzag scenario than the completion of an impulse wave for Minor wave C.

It is possible that we may have had a Zigzag wave down (with wave equality between waves (a) and (c) and not the first 3 waves of an impulse wave (circle i, ii, iii and that this pattern completed (a)(b)(c) pattern was only wave W of a much larger 3 wave (WXY) corrective pattern. That would mean that the pattern that has occurred from my labelled wave circle iii is not wave circle iv but rather in the process of forming wave X. In this case wave X would be forming a Flat pattern.

As I would expect Minor wave C to be similar in length to Minor wave A that would give an expected termination level of around the 950. Now based on the impulse wave scenario in my previous post that would have wave circle v terminating somewhere near the 1000~1010 level which to me seems a little under done.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 04:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re your posts 179 and 181. Yep, there are several counts that could come into play from my WXY scenario to the most pessimistic of nested 1/2 waves. If we have the nested scenario then we would probably test the March 2009 lows. It really depends on what level these first few waves have actually been forming at.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Post Number: 184
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 04:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy,

I guess we need a bit more of this pattern to make sense of it completely.

To get to your 950 level in this pattern for wave C, that would require a wave length of c.180 points down from 1129. Currently we are half way down that path, so a count that is in iii of (iii) might have more validity to your goal? Just a thought?

Re your 3902 - I was unsure why one count was invalid and the other valid?? That was the question when you have time... I guess I am a little unsure how two 5 wave patterns correctly connect? eg. v & (i) are at the same point.

As an aside, although nearly every Indicator is currently bearish, there is one which suggests at this point that we have already hit a low to this correction. Check out CBOE:




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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 04:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

By the way having said all of the above about the optimistic counts, the chart below does look rather bearish.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 05:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...when you put it like that, I guess another big brown slimmy skid is what we should see tonight!


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 05:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The reason that the earlier count was invalid is because if the two impulse waves down were at the same level then we would only have 3 waves instead of the required 5 waves for an impulse. See red labelling below:




Therefore one of those impulse waves had to be a sub wave of a wave in the other impulse wave. In my corrected EW count I made the first 5 waves subwaves of wave (i). Hence we had a completed 5 wave move down to wave circle iii.

By the way, that indicator is not the only one that is bullish. Note that the daily Slow Stochastic is in oversold territory and we are in the lower quadrant of the Bollinger Bands.




There are definitely arguments for both bullish and bearish cases at the moment. We will really know that we are in nested wave 3's if we take out the lower boundary of that larger descending channel.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 05:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

Personally, I think you have to sell into any rallies. I believe that Wave 3 down has begun and it should be broad based across the board. How about poor old Japan - down 3.55%, so much for them leading the rally due to their 'stimulus' yesterday!!

If the S&P breaks 1040 tonight I think it's toast

Cheers
MM


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billt
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 06:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy for explaining the count - it's obvious, I was having a blonde moment....

MM, it just goes to show how bad USA & Europe are going when you have to rely on Japan to lead a rally, when Japan has a National Debt at 205% of GDP, and spending more stimulus to get themselves going....it's a real worry!

Whether we are in wave (iii) or (v) the next few trading days could be bleak.


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billt
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 06:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Rudy,

If you look at Wave A, it took 14 trading days for the SPX to drop from 1219 to 1173 being 46 points (excluding the 'flash crash').

In the next 9 trading days the SPX lost another 137 points. The real acceleration occurred in the later part of the wave.

After 14 trading days Wave C has taken us from 1129 to 1065 being 64 points.

The fundamental outlook in the US has got considerably more bearish since April, so the next 9 trading days may be telling!


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 07:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

That's why I keep talking about breaking through the lower boundary of the descending channel. Wave 3's tend to not only be larger but also accelerate faster. That's why they have a habit of breaking through channel boundaries.

If you want to see an accelerating move, just wait and see what happens if the price action cracks that blue line.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everyone!
As Eager as I am always saying that we are about to be in a major downward movement, for the markets, looking at the XJO it definately doesnt look headed for the 4000 number just yet.
This is just again an assumption but the markets could play out something like this.
I am confident of a crash tomorrow or Thursday for the SPX but it may be like the one we had on May 6. (crash hard but then regain its upward movement like a flash).
That would leave a tail & create a 5th wave of the movement down (look at Rudys chart on SPX).With our market in mind, it could come down a bit as well but create a b wave of that e wave you are talking about Rudy so then next week our market could do a final leg of an e wave whilst the SPX starts a 2nd of a larger impulse down.(with this movement from 10720 being a Wave 1 of either C or 3 for SPX.
I know I've written some crap before but whatever anyone does, watch for a turning point on Sept 3. I put my life on it.
Also Rudy, what characteristics & rules does an E wave have on an a,b,c,d,e, wave corrections?
Many thanks

SPX =



XJO =



FTSE =




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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Lee,

For information about wave e's of Triangles just look at the Word document that I attached to my post 3895 on Monday.

By the way one word of advice, I would never stake my life on anything to do with the share market.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,
You are absolutely right. Such a versatile moving machine the market is!!
Do you think my charts are possible??
Many thanks for the info.
Lee


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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Have to agree with you mate. I think that Japan is in a bit of strife.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Lee,

Yes your charts are possible. But then again, just about anything is in the market.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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p3t3
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 09:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




mastersl46 wrote on Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:19 pm:

Do you think my charts are possible??


Is possible the right question? Profitable trading is (I believe) the careful, informed application of probabilities.

Possible is not the same as likely.

Just my view
Pete


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billt
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 08:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX could be in process of providing a text book Head & Shoulders pattern to begin our further trip south.

This could also form a neat 1/2 for the commencement of a third wave down.

If this is wave (iii) then the SPX needs to get moving downwards producing higher volume and breadth numbers.

CBOE (see 184 post) ticked higher last night, so my only bullish indicator got a little more bearish. The moving averages continue to be in a bearish alignment on the 5, 15 & 60 minute, daily and weekly time frame.


The Trend still remains down as the SPX seems unable to print any minor higher highs, only lower lows, and until this changes the big cuddly bears keep control.




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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 08:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The EW guru that you are following is thinking along similar lines to me (to a degree). I was in the midst of updating a chart of the SPX when your post came in.

Note that the 1040 level is a line of defence that the bulls are attempting to hold. With the declining channel bearing down on it however I think that the next attempt by the bears will succeed. Once this occurs I suspect that things will really develop rather quickly.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 10:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



More history than first thought

Actually this level has a lot more history than I first thought.






If it does get through that level it should be a large move because of the pressure level that it represents. It does however still have to get through it first.....

What the bulls have to be careful of is what happens if the upper boundary of the descending channel is breached..........

(Message edited by rdumas on September 01, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 11:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Other View Of The S&P500

The bearish view of the SPX has been discussed in great detail on this thread for some time. As we are at a cross roads (yet again) at the moment where we will either break down through the 1040 level and start a strong wave 3 move at some level or alternately break up through the upper boundary of the descending channel I thought that it would be worth while looking at the short term bullish scenario. I have to emphasise that it would be only short term because I believe that the larger corrective move has not yet completed.



Now whether we call it a WXY or a ABC pattern is pretty irrelevant because a rose is still a rose by any other name....

The other way of drawing this pattern is a Triangle pattern that I have spoken about in the past. The main difference between the two proposed patterns is that in the above pattern the move down from circle b would be a 3 wave pattern whereas if it were a Triangle pattern the move down would be a 5 wave pattern.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 11:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

Whilst the bears continue to get more bearish, I believe that when we look at methodologies outside of pure EW the evidence is becoming clearer to me that the chances of the Prechter scenario playing out in the next few months is highly unlikely.

One of the biggest arguments against his scenario playing out is cycles work that Andrew uses. When we bottomed out in March 2009, there were 3 primary cycles at work, namely the 1 year, 2 year and 4 year cycles. Now these are not pure sine waves but are a combination of hundreds of lower level cycles. If we however consider them as pure sine waves for the sake of simplicity it would mean that the 4 year cycle would be topping out around March 2011.

Now that is totally out of kilter with massive new lows occurring around that period. Now again, I stress that these long term cycles are not pure sine waves but they do give us a bit of guide as to what may happen in the longer term scheme of things.

It is for the above reason that I am convinced that we have one more up leg left in the rally that started in March 2009 and that we are currently experiencing a correction to that rally brought about to a large degree by the effects of the 1 and 2 year cycles. This is again the reason why I am considering the current correction in terms of a corrective pattern rather than an impulsive pattern that Prechter believes we have started.

At present the XJO is exhibiting evidence of a short term rally in a number of normal technical indicators as I have been consistently commenting on in the last week or so. That is consistent with the formation of a Triangle pattern rather than a 3 wave pattern which was the only other possibility (refer to diagram below).



With those patterns in mind have a look at what the XJO is currently doing.





Now as I said in a previous post, there is no reason for wave circle e to have to go as high as the upper boundary of the contracting wedge pattern because the last leg in this sort of pattern can experience both 'Throw Overs' and 'Throw Unders'.

It is extremely important in the application of the Elliott Wave methodology to use as many other methodologies as possible to confirm your favoured EW count. When applying EW in isolation from all other evidence, it is very easy to get married to a count that will turn out to be incorrect.

Now if the XJO does create a Triangle pattern during this important time period then it will add further weight to the evidence supporting a corrective move down rather than an impulsive move down for as Ken pointed out, the wave 2 of an impulse wave cannot be a Triangle pattern.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 03:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Is this what you meant by a bee wave, Yogi?!?

1


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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 03:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No No No. This is what I meant.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 03:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



or this. The bear is actually performing the b wave. This is obviously meant for a bear market only.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 05:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I thought I might give you some more US economic market updates, but this works better:




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billt
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 05:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy


I have a confession!

I said last week I was going to sell my ETF GOLD. I didn't..




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billt
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 08:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX tonight:

1. 1061 then a reversal for a perfect H&S - target 1015; or

2. 1070 to complete a perfect ABCDE then a reversal?

My hunch is for the H&S...


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p3t3
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 10:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Wednesday, September 01, 2010 - 08:45 pm:

1. 1061 then a reversal for a perfect H&S - target 1015


Futures are already within a point of the first target. Looking a bit conservative at this stage.


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p3t3
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Thursday, September 02, 2010 - 01:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




mastersl46 wrote on Tuesday, August 31, 2010 - 08:00 pm:

SPX =


mastersSPX

Looks like you called it closest, Masters. Kudos + from me.

Pete


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billt
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Thursday, September 02, 2010 - 07:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

Well that pattern came to an abrupt end!

Here's a couple of options, to add to your own thoughts last night (discounting the higher Prechter type count).

1. A new 5 wave pattern to tag the last set (which will have a similar outcome to your latest thoughts);or
2. A ABC pattern to complete higher

The long term chart of the weekly SPX is still bearish with the perfect bearish alignment of the three major moving averages now that the 20 week has crossed the 50 week MA. The daily SPX is still bearish.




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billt
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Thursday, September 02, 2010 - 07:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey masters

Your SPX 2nd or 3rd September 'flash crash' scenario is all set up - that red wave iii is ready for launch.

The 'spurt up' came before 'the crash' - but I guess we will take what we're given.

Unemployment numbers out on Friday may provide the scenario?

Bill


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billt
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Thursday, September 02, 2010 - 08:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi again Rudy

Looking back at the various options your 'WXY' option on the SPX looks the most logical to my eye.

The equal wave length of the two main legs down in the last pattern, was 'a big clue' as you said at the time....everyone was looking for a 5 waver, but it seems obvious now that it was a 3 wave move. There were millions of counts on a 5 waver, (some trying to make sense from a 'nested' idea), so it just reminds you to keep an objective eye on the wave length and consider all the options. Wave i was the same length as wave iii because it was a 3 waver - so obvious now!

If we do descend from here to complete circle wave c (and wave Y), on an equal wave length to circle wave a that would have us in the target zone of 990. A little above your 950 target, but close enough?


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

A wise move that you took in keeping hold of your ETF GOLD. I don't know if you saw my post 3900 to Ken on Monday where I suggested that there was probably a wave circle c to complete Minor wave B.

I had been having real problems seeing the pattern that was forming at the lower levels as a top. It just didn't make any sense to me then suddenly the SC&C kicked in and the pattern became obvious. Sometimes when I get a bit of Southern Comfort and Coke to help me I see waves much clearer.

I suspect that the POG will head towards $1325~$1350 from here which has always been the target level from an earlier inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.

I agree with you that WXY pattern is the one that will play out for the SPX and the Triangle pattern will play out for the XJO. It should almost or possibly even complete wave circle e today. That upper boundary is well within its sights today. I will have to see what pattern it forms later in the day to determine whether it will peak today.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Regarding the 950 or 990. We'll get a much better fix on the potential bottom as we see the pattern evolving.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Keep the SCC going Rudy...it still works after all these years.

On Monday I decided to continue to run the ETF Gold as the 'risk trade' until we get to the bottom of this correction on the markets. When your post popped up in the afternoon, that kept me in.

Keep the WXY labelling in play Rudy - it will give me a chance to get my head around it!


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ken
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Thursday, September 02, 2010 - 09:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

re ETF gold - don't be fooled by the US gold price rising - ETF gold is going down until the exchange rate goes down. The exchange rate has moved more than the gold price


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rdumas
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Hi Ken,

I'm well aware of the effect of the AUD. If the equities market does what I expect the AUD will very quickly lose it's shine.

I am also conscious that the ABC correction that I was expecting may have come early. If so the EW count for the SPX would look something like the following. I put plenty of bubbles into the count to support the rally.





I know that Randall also believes that the worst should be over so I am keeping an open mind. Certainly there are some positive signs appearing as can be seen from the following chart.





Note that the Slow Stochastic has crossed upwards. The TMF has done a similar thing and even the monthly Slow Stochastic has a bit of a kick up at the moment. It will be interesting to see how the price action deals with the MBB and the 50 day EMA.

I still have a slight leaning towards the bearish case however I'm keeping an open mind.

If the bearish case is to come to fruition then we would be getting reasonably close to a turning point in the XJO. Note the current targets of the 100% and 127.2% Fib levels. This morning we already tested and fell back from the 100% Fib level.







We should also keep in mind that Throw Overs are very common in the e leg of a Triangle pattern so the bearish case is far from over as can be seen from the following chart.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, September 03, 2010 - 08:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX is closing in on the 61% retracement range at the same time the a-b-c-x-a-b-c count in a bearish wedge is wrapping itself up. The RSI also continues to diverge with each successive higher high on the price action, another sign momentum is waning and this rally is about done?

Tonights trading session is the last before a major three day holiday week-end. Volume should be very low. This scenario could push the market in two distinct ways, very large moves on little volume or just a plain flat day in a tight trading range.




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mastersl46
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Hi everyone!
Hi built, the date I have of September 2 is a mid point so a crash can happen 3 trading days before or after, so if nothing happens by next thursday, its over.
I actually was expecting a drop below 1040 on Wednesday night, so all the sell orders under 1040 would bring the market down 50 points, then radically climb up again, creating a 5 of 5 for the SPX.
It does actually look like rudy has been correct all along as if he says that a rule states that Wave 2 cannot be a triangle, then we are definitely going into a C wave of the B of the B (think thats correct?) for the XJO.
The turning pont of September 3 (tonight) I have is looking very likely. I actually thought that this date was going to be a low. So if the market were to hit 1100 , then thats a great position to short. (Also look at touching descending trendline from 1220 to 1130 on Aug 9.I am definitely looking for a turning point tonight
So we can still be confident that the market will get to 930 - 900 & the XJO to 3800. The date I have around there is Oct 15 , Oct 19-21. So they could be the bottom dates.
Also could be the same time value as Wave A (5 - 6 weeks) depending on each of ones Elliot count.
All the shorts will be under 1040 so if the market gets there within the next 2 days there could be a major crash but I am leaning now towards an E scenario for the SPX also.So wave 1 may get to 1040 - 1050 before a bounce & then a 3rd to break 1040 probably in 2 - 3 weeks.
That call / put ratio is a valuable tool. What does it read now? Is this a standard indicator on websites, how do I access this indicator. (Still learning much about the markets)
Many thanks


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paint
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Saturday, September 04, 2010 - 10:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Masters,

Here is a recent put/call chart: http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-put-call-ratio-equity-20d-sma-par ams-3y-x-x/

and

http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/putcall.htm#Equity

seems to be sitting in neutral territory at the moment


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mastersl46
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Hi Everyone!
Thanks paint for the info, much appreciated.
I was stuffing around with a new charting system that a CFD provider provides last night & I stumbled upon something amazing.
When drawing channel lines, the line that you are moving shows the distance & the time in units. So for example, if I am looking at a daily chart and put one trendline of a channel to the top of a candle, when moving the other trendline it shows the distance from the first candle where the other trendline starts.
I noticed that the top of August 9 was EXACTLY at a 90 day period from the top on April 26 and guess what the distance was from this? 90 POINTS!! The thing was that the futures market used for the SPX is trading in a 6 day week as it includes the Saturday morning period as a full candle on the chart.
This tells me that the downward trendline from April 26 to Aug 9 is a perfect 45 degree trendline.(SPX trendline moved exactly 1 point per day).
The thing that confuses me is that the real S&P has only moved 75 trading days as it only trades 5 days a week so a 45 degree downward trendline on the actual S&P 500 chart would look totally different. If you tried to calculate 1 day for 1 point, the trendline would be somewhere else.
Is anyone else aware of this? So using a 6 day trading week, the SPX is retesting it's 45 degree downward trendline.
So the market has touched its 45 degree downward trendline on Aug 9 at 1130 & touched it again on Friday night also at 1105 (on futures it was at 1104, top of April 26 high was 1216 - So is 112 pts on 112th trading day.
Gann said the 45 degree trendline is the strongest, so there is a big chance that it will move down from now, if it goes any higher, that means it breaks this line which would definitely favour the upside.
Is this new to people or did everybody already know this? I am not sure if I made a discovery about Gann angles working on future charts but not on the real chart or it's just something that everybody already knew.
Also I have some dates for the future, Sep 23 , Oct 15, 19 - 21.
If the market creates a downward C wave from now, these dates could work like this. (Shown on chart)
Remember, I am only speculating. If any of this transpires, Look for a low of 925 - 900 between Oct 15 to 21.
Would love to hear some feedback of any views.
Many thanks

P.S -had to reduce the chart so if you cant read it,
April 26 - June 8 = 6 wks 1 day , 300 pts in 150 future trading days , bottom of 3rd ,Oct 15 - 21 - 925 - 900.
These are the lines hard to read.
(I see the low on June 8 as wave 5 of A, June 8 was a turning point I had.)





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mastersl46
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Hi Everyone again!!
Forgot to ask Rudy something.
Hey Rudy!!
Another analysis website also has this triangle A-B-C-D-E in play but they say if the market rises above 4596, then it invalidates the count. Is there any substance to what they are saying?
Also they are noticing the AUD/JPY doing the exact same triangle count. If the AUD/JPY is in this count, does that strengthen the view that we are also in this count.
Many thanks on your reply.


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paint
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Sunday, September 05, 2010 - 10:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Masters - re Put/Call ratio: This indicator is calculated by dividing the daily or weekly volume of call options by
the daily or weekly volume of put options. Big call volume appears at market tops and big
put volume at bottoms. Only CBOE equity options or all CBOE options should be used for
this indicator. Call/put ratios of the indices like OEX and SPX are distorted and clouded by
arbitrage and hedging and do therefore not always reflect true investor sentiment. (Wall Street Courier)


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billt
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Monday, September 06, 2010 - 10:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX (Daily) long term MA (200/100/50/20) is still in full bearish alignment, and despite the 4 day rally prices are still under the MA (100). I will be watching to see if this counter rally stalls at the MA (100) as it has done previously.

The EW pattern could be concluding a Double ZigZag Pattern to complete Circle Wave b:




$NYSI Weekly Summation Index may suggest that we have yet to find a bottom to this correction:



Economic news continues to be weak, despite the odd piece of encouraging news:

GDP 1.6% and declining

Debt 92% of GDP and growing

Deficit $100 billion per month and growing

Unemployment : U.S. jobless rate rose to 9.6% in August, the government’s broader measure of unemployment rose even more to 16.7%, 14.9 million ‘officially’ unemployed, with 6.2 million people out of work longer than 27 weeks. 25.3 m ‘actually’ unemployed. Payrolls need to grow by about 200,000 a month in order to keep up with growth in the population and bring down unemployment; however 283,000 jobs were lost in the past 3 months.

Food Stamp Recipients 41.9m and growing

Sales of existing homes plunging by a record -27 percent in July, housing starts were down - 31 % in July. Building Permits fell - 3.1% to 565k Rate in July hitting a 14-month low

Auto Sales at a 28-year low in August.

Tax cuts being withdrawn and new taxes being implemented. A new ‘Death Tax’ is being implemented on 1 Jan 2011 – 55% on estates in excess of $1m! Get ready for a rush of the wealthy to non USA tax localities. (watch 'death duties' here soon!)


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rdumas
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Hi Lee,

Re your question : "Hi Everyone again!!
Forgot to ask Rudy something.
Hey Rudy!!
Another analysis website also has this triangle A-B-C-D-E in play but they say if the market rises above 4596, then it invalidates the count. Is there any substance to what they are saying? "


Someone else was telling the same thing but I can't understand why that would be so. The scenario that I am thinking of is a triangle pattern for Minor wave B as shown in the chart below.




In the above scenario there is absolutely nothing preventing wave circle e going beyond the upper boundary of the contracting wedge (Triangle) pattern. "Throw Overs" are quite common for the final wave in a Triangle pattern.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, September 06, 2010 - 04:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Thanks for the Wrap.

I am still persuaded by your SPX count on your post 3914. How does the circle wabe b count on my post 198 look to you? Looking to find the top of Circle Wave b for an entry level into some more TZA!

POG is holding the us$1240-50 zone, is your count still running? If we get circle wave c on the SPX, we might get a further POG spike, plus a $AUD softening to help ETF GOLD?

cheers mate

Bill


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rdumas
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Monday, September 06, 2010 - 04:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Thanks mate. I still think that the post you refer to for the SPX still has legs.

As for the count in your post the only slight change I would make is the following:




I suspect that the XJO is topping now and that the SPX will possibly top tonight.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, September 06, 2010 - 04:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill,

I forgot about your GOLD question. IF the waves on this corrective pattern aren't equal, they certainly look close to me so if there is another move up to come then we should be close to getting it.





By the way, I have to start getting my tax info together for my SMSF so you folks may not hear too much from me this week.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Unemployment USA

My earlier post 198 referred to Unemployment USA figures.

Not an EW discussion, but one that influences my consideration on the various options of EW counts...

According to the US Department of Labor/Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov/new.release/empsit.t15.htm it is clear to see that the percentage of unemployed, both U-3 and U-6 continues to hold at very high levels. The August figures increased over the prior two months:

U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)

Aug 09 9.7%
June/July 10 9.5%
Aug 10 9.6%

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Aug 09 16.8%
June/July 10 16.5%
Aug 10 16.7%

The massive US Stimulus Package has not resulted in a reduction to the employment figures, nor does it seem the US is getting any traction on reducing these levels. If anything August 2010 figures appear to suggest an acceleration of the unemployment problem.

Although many see reason for a Bullish view for the markets, from a fundamental point of view, I see no evidence to support that assumption. Unemployment is going up, GDP is going down, and the National Debt just gets bigger & bigger!

 
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