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Archive through September 12, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 12, 2010

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rdumas
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Monday, September 06, 2010 - 05:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

We are in total agreement which is partly why I still have a bearish stance in my EW count.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, September 06, 2010 - 05:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

I'll limit my 'Economic' stuff to the minimum - it is a EW site after all, but at times it might be useful to have a bit of economic consideration. I appreciate many might 'glaze over'....

The web address to that unemployment data was slightly incorrect, enter:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

...then scroll down and hit:

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization







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billt
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Monday, September 06, 2010 - 06:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX
Divergence on the 15 min/Numerical EW Count

Interesting to note the divergence setting up on the 15 minute charts.





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rdumas
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Tuesday, September 07, 2010 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

I mentioned yesterday that I felt that the XJO was possibly in a topping pattern for the circle e leg of the Triangle pattern for Minor wave B.

The potential target level that I had was the 127.2% Fibonacci level that I had mentioned in a previous post (refer to the chart posted at the time below).



Now of course there are never any guarantees with these Fibonacci levels but they are a good guide at times. I note that the index is slowly making its way up to this level.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, September 07, 2010 - 03:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Bill,

Do you want to know what the top of a leg circle e looks like?




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 10:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

Just a short break away from doing my tax stuff.

In this weekend's Weekend Market Wrap I made the following comment:

"One of the points that I have always made in my market wraps is that we should never get “married” to a particular wave count. There are many wave counts that can be applied to the patterns currently forming in both the US and Australian markets. Each one of them at this stage have equal validity.

One of the difficulties faced by an EW analyst is that there is a tendency to identify patterns that are aligned to their bias of the market. I am extremely conscious of this problem. Every one of us has a brain that is ‘wired’ according to our predispositions and our life’s experiences. That causes us to see things that may not be ‘real’. I have discovered that EW analysis is very much an ‘art’ rather than a science and the ability to recognize patterns accurately is very much a function of the ability of the analyst to take into account his/her personal biases.

With that in mind I should point out that currently there are a number of traditional technical indicators that are giving us mixed signals. For me to feel extremely confident about an EW count I like to get a confluence using a number of different methodologies. When this confluence is absent, my confidence level reduces. The current conflicting signals are keeping me very much open to possible changes in my EW counts."


I use EW analysis as a tool to analyse the market but it is one tool in a big tool box of tools. The beauty about using a number of different methodologies is that potential future direction of the market can have a reasonably high probability of being predicted when there is a strong confluence between the various methodologies.

Currently my preferred EW count for the XJO is the Triangle scenario for Minor wave B of a corrective move to the March 2009 rally. This EW count requires a strong move down from the current levels or a bit higher.



Today's price action is moving the index away from the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern however there was always going to be resistance at this level for many reasons.

The chart below shows just some of them.

1) Upper boundary reached
2) Daily Slow Stochastic in over bought territory.
3) 150 day SMA reached
4) Upper Bollinger Band reached




What is not shown in the chart above is that the TMF is trending up and above the zero line, the weekly Slow Stochastic is midrange and trending up, the monthly Slow Stochastic is in over sold territory, etc.

So we can see that whilst it is possible that the Triangle scenario is alive and well at this point in time and there are technical indicators suggesting a short term move down, there is still enough evidence to cast doubt on the medium term EW count remaining valid. It is for this reason that I would caution bears who believe that this is the start of a large move down and are tempted to over commit. I personally don't believe that the bearish case is as strong as some may think at this time.

Remember that I have always said that the move down from the April 2010 was a correction to the March 2009 rally and not the road down to HELL predicted by Prechter and company. It is entirely possible that we may have already seen the bottom of that correction. That is not my favoured position but it is possible and cannot be discounted.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 10:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Your words of caution are well directed!

Here is a count showing numerous options - this guy certainly is not wedded to one! (i added a few 'pink' notes for completeness...



I noticed a possible bullish ABCDE on the SPX 15 minute, which might cause a further lift in tonights action.



I always have a look at RUT to check out how it feels....it was the first to signal the bear leg last month, the first to turn north recently, and it is showing a slightly more aggressive push south overnight....




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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 11:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

One of the beautiful things about Elliott Wave analysis is that you don't have to go to the depth of doing the sort of counts that the fanatics (like me) do as much can be gained just by understanding the wave personalities.

Note that the move down from the top of the XJO since yesterday is not an impulse wave.




What we know then is that the larger pattern may be one of two things; either another corrective wave that will be followed by another move up or a leading diagonal. Until we have established that it is one or the other, caution should be used.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 02:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Wave Personality 'thing' is extremely useful. I see a Big Fog Horn!




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market_mad
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 02:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Given the volumes (large) over the past couple of days (today included) I'd agree, that it's not an impulse move and it tends me to believe that we may push back to the 4520-25 area at most before having another slash at the top end again.

Buyers keen to support our market today which leads me to believe that they aren't done with yet.

I'm favouring a few index longs around the 4530 area with stops placed below 4500 looking for a push up over the next couple of days.

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 03:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I tend to agree with MM about where it is trying to head.





Like MM I suspect that both the XJO and SPX will have another go at the previous tops over the next couple of days.

Now back to the boring tax work.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 04:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Diary of a Bear!

Despite your caution guys, I am still not that convinced on this latest rally on SPX.

Stocks closed lower Tuesday following new worries about Europe's debt problems. Treasury prices rose and gold settled at a new high as investors sought out safe assets.

Will this news be the catalyst to begin Circle Wave C – or has it already commenced?

SPX Daily Moving Averages are totally inverted on the MA 200/100/50/20/10. Moving Averages are pointing down – nothing to be bullish about.

The SPX Weekly closed beneath both the 20, and 50 week moving averages, which are both now acting as resistance. MA 200 sits well above at 1202.

There is a very credible H&S pattern still playing out Jan/April/July.

Prices have hit the overhead resistance and retreated.

SPX overnight reversed off the overhead Trendline & MA(100)

There is a possibility that we might see another ABC move, to retest prices at the MA (200) above @1115 - I guess that is what you suggest Rudy/MM. We might drop to the 1065/1072 fibo level before setting in a higher high – but I am not all that confident. Wave Circle C may have already commenced?

Some indicators are already turning bearish, including the ADX line.

I will be looking tonight to see if the MACD rolls over to create a bearish mMm pattern and for prices to fail below MA (50).

I will be then looking at the 60/30/15 min to see if we get a bearish realignment of the MAs.

The Dow has reversed off MA (200), as has the Russell RUT reversing off overhead Trendline & MA (200).

I am preparing for another Bear Attack! I can smell the fish. TZA (x3 bear RUT) did get a bullish realignment on its 15-minute chart, but the 20-p only moved above the 50-p EMA by one cent. TZA has now filled the gap. I'm going to be watching to see if stage 1 base now begins to carve out or if this is a contra trend on the 15-minute that will produce an abc move on TZA and the S&P 500. The 30-minute charts are not yet in agreement with the 15-minute charts, so I’m not totally convinced. I normally wait until all the timeframes are in agreement.

SPX is looking a little more bearish than the XJO....hmmm...might go and find a big salmon to munch on!


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billt
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 04:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Double Top v Falling Wedge?




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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 04:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I don't know Bill. MM and I are only talking about the next day or so of price action. Looking at the BBs and %R indicators in the chart below they suggest that there will be a short term bounce to me.




Now whether is it destined to get to the UBB remains to be seen.

Your double top target would have been almost reached so that argument doesn't deter me much.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 04:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks mate for SPX stuff - I'll put the bear back in his box,

Good to see you have completed your tax - you don't have to pay unless you make a profit Rudy. I'm happy to write an explanation to ATO if you like. :-)

Back to Gold....it looks like a big aggressive wave i to me Rudy. Its had a 10% push north - what's your thoughts?

Perhaps a Cup & Handle to push further north?




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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 05:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

What makes you think that I've finished my tax??

I am only part of the way through because I hate preparing that stuff so I find a million excuses during the day for doing something else........it's so boring.

You are right about not having to pay tax but not for the reason you think. Once you get into pension phase with your super, you don't pay any tax on the profits generated in the SMSF. You don't even have to pay any tax on the money you draw out provided that you are over 60. I get to keep the lot. It's about the only good thing about becoming pre-historic.


The POG is in a difficult state at present because there are two possible counts that I can see. Either we are not far from completing a B wave and will eventually enter into a C wave down or we are in the finishing stages of a wave 1 of 3. One spells trouble for you and the other spells a trip to the bank with a wheel barrow full of money after a bit of a correction. I am unsure which count is correct at present.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 05:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



When you have worked out which count we are on let me know!

....I didn't think you were a day over 59! Goes to show what that SC&C does for you - its pickled you.

MM is winding them up over on ODB - he is very naughty.


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mastersl46
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 11:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everyone!!
Remember I said Sep 3 for SPX, Sep 7 for XJO for turning points? Seems they have come to fruition unless they get broken in the short future.
This is just a guess - SPX 1065 by Friday, 1050 by Monday night. Retest 1072 on Wed- Thurs (options exp) and then a fall down to 1030??. If Sep 23 is a turning point, then it may be the top of the 2nd at around 1040 before a 3rd.
Its all in the trendlines!!


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market_mad
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 12:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



latest from EWI,

Cheers
MM

The larger stock picture remains bearish. Near term, the upward push of the past week and a half has fulfilled the necessary subwaves of the pattern, which creates the strong potential for a resumption of the bearish case.

Yesterday, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed back within two standard deviations from its 20-day moving average, which rendered a near-term market "sell" signal, as described in Friday night's Update. These signals can occur contemporaneous with short-term market highs or several days prior, as past signals as well as our previous discussions indicated. There are rare instances when this signal, like all technical indicators, is a non-event. But that is the exception, not the rule, and one should never formulate analysis on lower probability outcomes. With the DJIA having retraced 2/3's of the decline from the August 9 high and with the S&P 500 having retraced to trendline resistance (see above chart), the confluence of these configurations suggests that the market is very near the start of the next protracted phase of decline.

Here's the near-term Dow chart that we published Friday, with update prices. We've placed the wave ii (circle) label over Friday's high at 10,448.70 (1104.58 in the S&P), but it is also possible that the index may have one more push to complete the final up leg of ii (circle), which we've denoted with the "or" label on the chart. That push is not required, as we can count the rally as complete, but if it does unfold, possibly 100-200 Dow points, it should be the last gasp of the entire countertrend push. A decline beneath 10,332 and 1091, respectively, would lessen the odds of this final push and increase the odds that a high is in place. Wave iii (circle) down will be the middle portion of Minor wave 3 down, which started at the August 9 high. By the time Minor 3 is complete, the Dow will have erased several thousand points.

Many pundits claim that there are too many bears for the stock market to decline, but, in our opinion, the evidence doesn't support this conclusion. The DJIA closed at 10,387 today, essentially the same level it was last November. During this 42 week period, only two weeks have seen a net bearish plurality according to the Investors Intelligence weekly advisors survey (investorsintelligence.com). This means that bulls have outnumbered bears 95% of the time even though the stock market has made no net upside progress during this ten month span. That's far from the bearish extreme seen at major stock market bottoms of the past. For instance, at the 1994-1995 stock lows, a bottom that launched the Great Asset Mania of the late 1990s, bears outnumbered bulls for 46 consecutive weeks. At the August 1982 stock market bottom, which started Cycle wave V, bears outnumbered bulls for 34 out of 35 weeks.

Even when viewed from just the April 26 stock market top, which we label Primary wave 2 (circle), it does not appear that there are "too many bears." The DJIA is down 8% from this top, while the S&P is down 10%, yet a net bullish plurality has existed so far for 90% of the time. Daily measures of market optimism and pessimism are also still tilted toward the optimistic side. The Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com), which currently shows 71% S&P bulls, remains far from the extremes recorded at significant lows. On March 2, 2009, four trading days prior to the Primary wave 1 (circle) low, there were just 2% bulls. Even the net plurality of the weekly AAII survey is at minus 11.4%. In March 2009 it was at minus 51.4%.

Obviously no outcome is every guaranteed when dealing with markets. But the weight of the sentiment evidence does not reflect the pessimistic extremes oftentimes registered as stocks are making a low. There remains plenty of room for a third-wave decline, if stocks so choose.

If the indexes were to rise above the August 9 highs of 10,719.90 in the DJIA and 1129.24 in the S&P it would mean that stocks were tracing out a more complex upward correction.


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billt
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 01:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Overnight the US Fed Beige Book Report concluded that the US economy was experiencing...."widespread signs of deceleration"...... (see ODB post)

Consumer Credit plummeted from -$1.0 billion to -$3.6 billion, a clear signal Consumer Confidence continues to decline.

I noted in your post MM, that EWI states that ‘the market is very near the start of the next protracted phase of decline’.

Prices overnight produced another lower high @ 1103.26, to add to the previous lower highs 1105.10 & 1104.58.

I am now looking for a lower low under 1091.15 and for the MA’s to set up in a bearish pattern to seek out an entry point for some short etfs.

Swing traders are positioning themselves on the short side playing the reversal off the 100- and 200- day MAs on the index charts and reversing off the declining trendlines on the SPX and the RUT – a resistance play. Stops positioned just above overhead highs.

The inverse ETFs got a bullish signal from the MACDs in the 15 minute timeframe as the lower high appeared.

We have still not seen a bearish realignment of the moving average trio on the SPX 15/30/60-minute charts. However, on SPX Daily the moving average trio continues to be in a total bearish realignment

I am looking for an entry point for TZA & FAZ, but the set up is not quite right at present. If prices move higher in an abc pattern I will delay my entry once again.




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rdumas
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 01:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM/Bill,

Thanks for the EWI update mate. EWI had a free week which finishes tomorrow and I noticed that they followed my lead on the Triangle pattern on the XJO. It took them a while to catch up.

I expect the SPX to complete the abc corrective move down tonight and start up on its final leg up. I would expect that leg to complete in the next trading day or two.




I threw a bunch of money at STW yesterday just before the close and made a quick 1% today before pulling out. Have to keep those lobster meals coming. I don't think that I'll even bother with the next leg up as I suspect that it will be half over for the SPX by the time we wake up tomorrow.

Bill, I would expect that you will be able to enter your shorts in the next day or two.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 02:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill,

This is what the SPX price action has been doing on the 10 minute chart.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 02:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy for the count, hopefully another leg up will get me a lower price on my ETF entry....

POG continues to shine, but will it push through the overhead resistance - Trader Dan's thoughts attached:






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billt
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 02:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rud'meister,

Tec' Question! Picking ya' brains ....

EWI states "the upward push of the past week and a half has fulfilled the necessary subwaves of the pattern"

You have been suggesting the greater probability for 'another leg up' for a few days - what drives you to that idea? EWI suggest the possibility too - but with less conviction. Is it just a 'precautionary' thought as it often happens at the end of this type of pattern, or other TA analysis indicators.

cheers Bill


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rdumas
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 02:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Elementary my dear Watson. The move down from the recent top was corrective (not impulsive). Look at my last two posts........does the move down look like an impulse wave to you?.........I rest my case.

I will let the jury decide for themselves.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 03:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I thought that it was important to be more complete in my response to your question. As EWI said in MM's post, the SPX has made the required pattern moves to believe that it the index may have completed its rally move into their higher level pattern. If that is correct then it would be expected that the move down from that level should be impulsive in nature. That is the point of contention at this point in time.

Now I have shown you a count that suggests that the move down was a corrective move but it could also be seen at the lower levels to be a couple of nested 1/2 waves with a third nested 1/2 wave that has commenced the first 3rd wave down. See the chart below.




Note that the first 1/2 wave pair had an impulse for wave 1 whereas the second 1/2 wave pair had a leading diagonal for wave 1.

It is a matter of deciding whether my corrective count is more likely than the impulsive count in the chart above. I personally have a leaning towards the corrective count but because the above count was a possibility I thought that it was not worth the risk to remain in my STW trade. Hence I took profits at the high this morning to ensure that Helen and I would at least get a lobster meal out of the trade.

We will definitely know tomorrow after we see what happens tonight on the SPX price action. If the corrective move is correct then we will more than likely have completed the last down move and be in the middle of the next leg up. It the impulsive move is correct then we will more than likely have started down in one of the wave 3 moves.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 04:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



VIX Not Far From Rallying

Both the Slow Stochastic and Bollinger Bands suggest that the VIX is not far off a rally and we all know what that means for the equities market don't we?







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 09, 2010 - 04:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I had that first vertical line in the wrong spot.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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thanks for doing that Rudy,

I understood your 'corrective' issue, but I could not understand EWI's note, so thanks for explaining that.

Your earlier 'corrective count' looked totally plausible at the timescale shown.

It is interesting when you drill down in a shorter timescale (as shown in 3939) a possible 'impulsive count' can be seen.

I have dropped onto your 'impulsive count' chart, your corresponding 'corrective' count for comparison in the same timescale.

My eye is not trained sufficiently, but there seems to be elements of 'Impulsive' within the pattern



It is interesting to note how the 'drill down' shows so much more of the actual pattern.

I can see a case for either.

Another lesson for the 'Newbies'!

thanks Rudy

Bill


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rdumas
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Your patience is soon to be rewarded. The pattern is nearing completion and the normal technicals are supporting the EW count. The ducks are finally starting to line up nicely. By Monday I suspect that we will start a decline that will last a few weeks.





The daily Slow Stochastic has cut on the downside and the UBB has almost been reached. The 150 day SMA is proving too big an overhead resistance to the price action and is unlikely to be significantly breached in this cycle. C'mon October bottom, I can't wait to pile into the longs again.

If we look at the weekly chart we can see that the 20 week SMA has broken down through the 50 week SMA which is extremely bearish as can be evidenced by what happened last time it did that however based on my EW count I expect that it will break back up through it this time once we bottom out in October.

In the meantime I suspect that we are going to be suddenly hearing a spate of bad news over the next few weeks.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 10:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



How's your nerve Bill. POG is definitely playing brinksmanship with you.




The GOLD bulls are going to have to keep that trend line in play. Note that the minor blue trend line has been broken and back tested. We have now had a lower low and a lower high so the price action is definitely showing signs of wear and tear.

Whilst the above short term looks a bit on the nose, the medium term doesn't look too shabby.




Whilst my confidence is low I probably have a slight leaning towards a continuing trend upwards over the next few weeks.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 10:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

RUT (russell small caps) has consistently lead the way on the previous momentum changes. It is interesting to look at the pattern it has formed with lower highs and higher lows. (ABCDE pattern to complete?)

MAs on the RUT at the 60 minute have begun to cross.

The next chart shows TZA (x3 Inverse etf). At the 15 minute the MA Trio have gone into a bullish alignment. Note triple bottom. $30.95 - 31.00 looks a good position to buy in, if wave e completes...

Although most other MAs on other 15/30/60 minute indices are still bullish, the 'last start winner' on momentum change - RUT - has begun to move....and it's crazy 3x inverse little sister (TZA) has moved momentum to the upside at the 15 minute....





Here is TZA





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billt
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 10:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi again Rudy

With an imminent correction down on SPX, I feel POG will come under some strong buying pressure.

$AUD should head south too, so I'll hang in there for now....

I am having a preference simply to trade TZA & FAZ and leave GOLD alone....as you said previously perhaps trading TZA & FAZ will deliver a better $$ outcome if a pick the momentum changes.

GOLD is very manipulated by the Reserve Banks in support of their weakening fiat currencies. So it is hard to predict...

I enjoy shorting the US banks the best - so FAZ gives me some personnel joy every time I buy some! (take that Goldman Sachs!)

Bill


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rdumas
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 03:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

I could be premature in ringing the bell but to me it looks like the XJO has started impulsing down.





The upper boundary of the Triangle pattern and the 150 day SMA (white MA line) continues to be a strong overhead resistance for the index. This could very well be the start of the move down in Minor wave C.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 04:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

I mention Bullion Bank (read US Fed) manipulation of the POG market.

Check out the last two days.

At 8.30am NY time 8 Sept, the 'Bullion Bank' boys short the market. It falls. Orders are given to hit it again. Right on 10am they go hard at it again.

At 8.30am NY time 9 Sept, the Bullion boys again short the market. It falls. Orders are given to hit it again & hit it hard this time. Right on 10am they go hard at it again.


The 'Punters' rally POG back up in the afternoon as best they can....watch what happens at 8.30am & 10am NY tonight....

It is claimed 50% of US gold reserves are 'leased' into the Bullion Banks to do just this - they buy back the gold at the lower prices.

The US Fed have to sell $100 billion treasuries a month. They can't afford the US market to fall back into love with Gold - they need to keep it in its place...why buy a Bond at minimal interest rate when you can buy gold??

At some point in time POG will explode to the upside - hard not to be carrying some...despite the manipulation.




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rdumas
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 04:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You are more than likely correct but to me it is still a trade that I don't want to be part of because it is too hap hazard. The SS looks like it's about to turn and it is getting to the LBB. Your US shorts look like a better bet to me.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 04:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

I'll exit the GOLD on the next rally - you are right, much more fun with my TZA.

After your XJO count, I located a SPX count (base count more Prechter type) which might have us at the same point as the XJO?

The 1110.27 top could equally have been the termination of the ABC corrective pattern - tonight will reveal all.






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rdumas
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 05:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The VIX is another duck lining up to say that the US market is about to fall.

We are at the bottom of the BBs and the %R is moving up.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 05:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Even if there is or is not another little 'wavelet' up to go on the SPX, it will have completed tonight and we should be on the way down when you and I get up in the morning. We are near as dammit now.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 06:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes mate, I tend to agree.

You picked that 'up' rally last week very well Rudy. You must be getting 'itchy' for a sustained rally to get your teeth into it.

Along with all your many charts, I feel that my 'canary' indice RUT (post 223) has made it pretty clear that the top is in.

The surprising thing to me is that it has taken 4 trading days of sideways movements to get to the drop off zone. It feels like a long week going nowhere...

If the 15/30/60 minute charts align tonight on my ETF's, I'll be topping up with a bag full of TZA, FAZ, DRV & BGZ for the trip south.

...thanks for your posts this week - always very useful to get the running commentary.


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rdumas
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Friday, September 10, 2010 - 08:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bill. I agree with you that the past week has been pretty boring and yes I can't wait for this correction to complete so that I can really get stuck back into the longs again.

I really don't like playing short term and enjoy being in a market that's trending up for weeks at a time. Once this Minor C leg is out of the way there'll be heaps of money to be made going long again. 3~5 weeks should just about finish this correction.

The Minor wave A took around 5 weeks to complete but the third legs tend to move faster so it could finish in less time. Once that's out of the way I would then expect there to be a rally period that takes us well into the first half of 2011. It looks like it could be another 'sell in May' type of affair.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, September 11, 2010 - 07:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Another perfect set square abcde pattern carved out and completed on SPX overnight ready for a substantial turn on Monday's trade.






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ken
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Saturday, September 11, 2010 - 10:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Billt,

That ascending triangle pattern is normally a continuation pattern, ie upward breakout expected. A rising wedge would signal a decline but this is not one of them.


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gdd3
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Saturday, September 11, 2010 - 11:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BillT...

Have to agree with Ken and many "T/A Books and Definitions". Here is one....

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patter ns:ascending_triangle_c

However, you are only refering to a 5 minute chart so maybe the upside break will only consist of abt. 13 points(M/M) so I'm sure thats of no consequence to your overall bearish strategy, right!

Dolphin

(Message edited by gdd3 on September 11, 2010)


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rdumas
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Saturday, September 11, 2010 - 02:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX/XJO Tops and Bottoms Timg

The chart below comparing the two indices shows you that the XJO led the SPX into the decline on the 15th April. The SPX didn't peak until the 26th April. It is entirely possible that a similar thing may occur this time. The XJO in its latest price action at the lower levels is showing an impulsive move down whereas the SPX continues to fluff around near its top as it did last time.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, September 11, 2010 - 04:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

I hope you don't mind me sharing your email with the readers of the EWW thread.

"Hi Rudy,

===snip====. Have you looked at the Small Ordinaries index (XSO) lately? It’s very different, having broken out of the trading range 7 trading days ago. This includes all the up and comers in the 101 to 300 range, ie the ASX300 minus the ASX 100. These are most of the stocks that are discussed on the Incredible Charts forum. Could you see if it’s worth following and put up what you find on Elliott Wave Watching – maybe the big resources stocks are headed for a fall but not the mid-range stocks?

Regards,

Ken Long"


As you say Ken, they do appear to have done better than the larger cap stocks. I have come up with the following EW count.



Now I don't think it matters all that much if we label the waves in Minor wave B as Minute waves circle abcde or circle wxy(xx)z because they are both complex 5 wave patterns.

What I find interesting is the impulsive look of legs circle c and circle e. I doubt very much that this indicates that these are the first and third waves of a higher level impulse wave because of the following:

1) it would not make sense in the context of the preceding pattern and

2) I really can't see this happening if the overall index is going to go into a significant decline. Whilst the smaller cap companies can often be priced up in a rally, when things turn bad, people will tend to fly to the safety of the large cap stocks. Anyway that's my view for what it's worth.

Note that because those legs overlap they could only be waves 1 and 3 of a leading diagonal if they were in fact impulsive. Again, I don't really think that this is the case.

(Message edited by rdumas on September 11, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, September 11, 2010 - 04:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys

I should have been more explicit in my previous post. Ken & Dolphin are paying attention - thanks guys! The SPX rising wedge is bullish and I expect that the SPX has every likelihood for another small rise as Rudy alluded to in Rudy’s Weekend Wrap today.

What I particularly look for are the ‘canaries’ to signal a change in direction.

I trade the short and long x3 ETF’s on RUT (Russell 2000 US Small Caps). RUT has led the other main US indices in momentum changes.

At the conclusion of the previous top, you may have noticed that RUT topped out on 27 July @ 672 after tagging MA (100) & the overhead trendline. RUT posted lower highs for a further 9 trading days before SPX put in its high on 9 August 1129.

It appears that RUT may have topped out within this rally on 3 September @ 643, after tagging MA (200) & the overhead trendline. RUT has posted lower highs and higher lows since then. No Rising Wedge here! We still await the SPX top?

Unless RUT posts another high above 643 I am expecting this rally to terminate as Rudy has suggested.

There are many Bullish Indicators which suggest another path, but the VIX 60 minute Chart & the Summation Index Chart both suggest the recent rally may be about to turn.

I wait until my 15/30/60 minute MAs are all in agreement before I hit the ‘x3 bear short’ TZA & FAZ, and currently that has still to occur. With RUT posting lower highs, as it did back in July/August, I am watching & waiting ready to commit.

The US Economic Fundamentals are pretty sick - so I expect, like Rudy, for Pollyanna to head south very soon...I would not be surprised for an early week correction south.





The Summation Index - indicators rolling back up, but the trend remains down....



The VIX is the Chart which may be very telling, looking to fly north?




Bill


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gdd3
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Saturday, September 11, 2010 - 08:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy...just an observation not a criticism, ok.

Re your Market Wrap...some XJO statements Vs summary comments.

Rudy stated refering to mostly the XJO:-

1)..."...we are on the verge of my anticipated final significant decline...",

2)..."..it is only a matter of day's before we will be commencing the strong decline to around 3750 ~ 3850 level".

3)..."...I expect the overall market decline to take 3 ~ 5 weeks".

Now thats a fall from current levels of between 15 - 18% in swift fashion(3 ~5 weeks)....yes, concede a "STRONG DECINE" if both the % fall and time frames prove correct.

However, in your summary you 'seemed' to have 'back-off' from the 'strong/significant' decline tone to a far less convincing ' higher probability of a downward move v's the other two alternatives(bullish/up and sideway's) by saying...

1)...Whilst bullish views still abound in the market, my own view is that the next few weeks the market {will tend} to move down....AND LATER...the strength of the current rally has been diminishing and the higher probability is for downward movement(from here).

Rudy, do I detect some 'doubts' in the time frame it took you to write your wrap or maybe I should follow your good advice "...and let the market direct us as it unfolds".

Cheers
Dolphin}


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mastersl46
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 12:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Poss count for SPX if is also doing a ABCDE triangle ???








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rdumas
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 07:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

One of the things that I try to do in my market wrap is to represent not only my view but also the opposing views out there in the market place so that readers may get a more balanced view of things. Thanks for pointing out how that attempt can look as though I am doubting my own views. I shall attempt to modify the way I put across my message in future.

To put my own view more clearly, I believe that we are about to start a decline in the XJO that will be quite severe in that there is a high probability that the Minor wave C will be of similar size to that of Minor wave A. The range that I mention in my market wrap is based on this premise.

The third wave in either an impulse wave or a corrective pattern is often faster than the first wave which is why I suggest that the move down once it gathers momentum will quite likely be over in 3 ~ 5 weeks because the first wave took around 5 weeks to complete.

I hope the above comments clear up what my views are at the moment.

Cheers

Rudy


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
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