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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through September 14, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 14, 2010

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rdumas
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 10:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Unfinished business on the S&P500


Just a few more comments about the price action on the S&P500 further to those I made in my weekend Market Wrap. As indicated in the MW, whilst the pattern for the XJO appears to be quite pure, the pattern for the S&P500 has a fuzziness about it.

The XJO is showing clear signs to me of impulsive waves down at the lower levels whereas the S&P500 is showing signs of 'unfinished business'. I already mentioned my agreement with Ken that that the latest small ascending wedge type pattern was a continuation pattern however other indications like the daily Bollinger Bands/Percent R/Slow Stochastic indicators all indicated a "stretching" of the current upward move. The other strong force acting as an overhead resistance remains the 150 day SMA.

Many of the above indications suggest to me that we may spike up from current levels to satisfy those various requirements. I have already dealt with the potential size of that spike in my MW document but I would like to add just one more to these.

We can see from the chart below that there is a gap that is begging to be filled.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 12:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Intraday Triangle Pattern

Corey Rosenbloom on his website "Afraid to Trade" is an excellent technical analyst who really delves "beneath the bonnet" of the share market. He has written a good article on the current intraday triangle pattern in the SPX which is worth a read.

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 02:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi, Rudy

The Corey Rosenbloom piece is excellent reading and a valid and valuable lesson in the use of tech analysis.

It's interesting he has reached a similar conclusion - that we have arrived at the breakout or breakdown point and that a sharp and fast move is now imminent.

Thanks for the link! Always a pleasure to read someone who understands what they're talking about and can impart it in a clear and useful way.

Ciao - RA


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gdd3
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 02:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Rudy,

No need to "...modify the way 'you' put across 'your' message in future" as I, and I'm sure most readers here, have understood exactly how/why you have based your calculations and views on. My posting was purely an observation/discussion on "semantics". So, Rudy , all is very clear from my end...no probs.

Interesting site/link you attached in your last post so thanks for that. Certainly, it is obvious Corey's favoured short-term interpretation and direction of the SPX is the same as you are presenting/expecting. One comment he makes I don't entirely agree too and that is he stated 'because of the decreasing volume during the formation of this ascending triangle this favours a significant break to the downside'. My understanding is that most triangle patterns do show decreasing volumes into their completion and it is the(*expected) increase in volumes ON THE BREAK that one must observe. (* I say expected increase in vols. as initially, whichever way it breaks, stops are activated as traders scramble to re-adjust positions). It is the increase in volumes that one must look for that confirms break direction; this often comes after a re-test of the breakout point or as the market moves away from the breakout point if no apparent test happens.

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 03:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I do appreciate your comments/observations as I am conscious of the fact that what we think we've conveyed in our writings is not always how readers interpret what we've written. I also know that you know what it's like to 'put your neck on the line' day in and day out so you would not generally make frivolous comments.

There is a well known professional market analyst who charges subscribers quite a bit of money who Randall and I call "Dithering Bill" because he spends a lot of time talking about stuff and in the end he leaves you wondering what in the hell his actual decision was about which way the market was going to go. I would hate to come across like that.

At the same time I do like to provide opposing views in my market wrap so readers don't get the idea that my views are the views of every technical analyst in the market place. It's a fine line that I tread but I have always attempted to let people know which particular view I hold at the time about market direction.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 03:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy, Dolphin,

The link about the triangle seems to be looking at a supposed triangle developing since 1st September rather than the one raised by Billt which covered only 9-10 Sept.

If you look at the volume over those 2 days, it's flat.

I doubt that the author of the linked page can claim a triangle starting that early.


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rdumas
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 03:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Regarding Corey and his comments about decreasing volumes with increasing prices. I think his comment related more to the longer term trend rather than just at the 'pointy end' of the wedge.

What you say is correct. When prices get to the pointy end, every man and his dog knows that there will be a break out and would rather 'wait and see' before committing further. Hence the reduction of volumes at that point in time (no pun intended).


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 03:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

Looks like you and I were thinking the same way. I was in the middle of writing my post when your's came in.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Sunday, September 12, 2010 - 05:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Guys,

My comment about decreasing volumes in most Triangular Patterns was not referring to just 'the pointy end' but over the whole formation/duration of the pattern.

I challenged Corey's low volume conclusion because of what he 'identified' in the SPX pattern since, say, Sept 1st. when he said...

" During the entirety of the price rise, both volume and the momentum oscillator have been declining. That’s a classic non-confirmation of the price rise, and it suggests that the rise is likely to result in a downward resolution.

In other words, to expect bullish price continuation, we want to see both volume and (hopefully) momentum RISE as price rises."


It was especially the second sentence that conflicted with my understanding of volume characteristics of Triangular Patterns as he was talking about the triangular pattern in play that he was illustrating from the 1st of Sept.(The question here is if you agreed that SPX's move since 1st of Sept to now is a triangular pattern...I'm not too sure; I was initially referring to the Triangular Pattern as posted by BillT in his post 229 that only covered trading on the 9th and 10th of Sept.).

What was also of interest in his volume charts was how the daily volume activities mirrored each other, high in the first 90mins of so then dribbling away until again picking up in the last 60/90 mins...all daytrader dominant characteristics with no read direction conviction. Daily volumes I concede decreased as this market went higher.

Finished for the day.

Dolphin

}


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ehmu
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Saturday, September 11, 2010 - 10:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi folks:

on a slightly larger scale, the spy looks a lot like a breakout to me. It will possibly ride the trend line down if the negative momentum continues next week.








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billt
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 09:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin

I failed to answer your question on whether I am still bearish.

Long to Medium Term I am still bearish. USA Economic indicators and SPX Weekly & Monthly MA’s tell the story.

Short term I am ‘Neutral’, and like some, I am expecting a Bearish reversal very soon.

I am trading TZA which has volume of usd$660b to usd$1200b/day. TZA (3x inverse RUT) has formed a Triple Bottom in the recent trading week. I am treating that as a ‘neutral’ pattern until a breakout occurs. A Hollow Red Candlestick is in place.

RUT has put in a series of lower highs in the past week, and the Daily Chart has two Black Candlesticks posted. My view is the high may have already formed on RUT.

I am looking for SPX to reverse off the MA (200) @ 1115.60. If that occurs I will be looking for an entry at c$31.00 on TZA with a stop at 30.75 (previous low).

The ability of TZA to hold support has proven to be bullish, but resistance is not yet broken. I am looking for a sharp increase in volume and momentum on TZA, and for the 15/30/60 minute MA’s to fall into place, to validate the breakout of this inverse ETF.

Cheers

Bill


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rdumas
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 11:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Latest XJO Price Action


I have to admit that the strong move up caught me a bit by surprise this morning as I had said that the move down from the previous top (that I have labelled b) was impulsive. This led me to believe that we had commenced our move down for this index.


I have mentioned many times that the biggest problem for an EW analyst is 'level confusion' and have to admit that I made that mistake in my previous posts. Of course the move down from label b was impulsive because it was the final wave in a 3 wave corrective move. I should have seen that but misread the situation.

Impulsive moves can be either the final wave c in a corrective move or the first wave in an impulsive move. In this instance it was the former and not the latter.





Now the only question left to be answered is "have we seen the termination level for wave Z or is there another upward move left?"

The answer depends on whether I have correctly place wave c in its correct location or whether it should be located at the previous low to the left of its current location. We will possibly know the answer to that later today or tomorrow sometime.

Either way I remain confident that the next major move for the index is down and not up based on the previous larger Triangle pattern for Minor wave B discussed in previous posts and market wraps.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 03:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



US Markets

Volume?
Volume last week on the SPX was the third lowest of the last 18 months. Christmas and Thanksgiving weeks accounted for lower volume. ‘Rallies or sell-offs built on low volume are fragile and can quickly fall apart once normal volume returns to the market place’.

Rising Wedge/Ending Diagonal?
The SPX has that ‘wedgie’ look (a bit like Abbott in his budgies) - that normally only appears at the end of a larger move.

Resemblance of Patterns?
The Russell appears to be in a 4th wave triangle, same as it was in the beginning of August before it broke down, there is a eerie resemblance between the two patterns. There is the same pattern developing with the weakness of the small caps compared to the larger caps, INDU, and the SPX, both were making higher highs while the Russell was unable to, another sign of weakening momentum.

pump & dump....





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market_mad
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 03:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re Volumes - yes, and Friday was the lowest volume on the NYSE this year bar none

Latest from EW - interesting given that the US futures are up strongly at present and this might represent the final thrust up that they are talking about? Initial pump followed by dump tonight? Could be on... Cheers,MM

Stocks are finishing their near-term rise of the past two weeks. When complete, the larger decline will resume.

Tonight's discussion will be brief because the past two days have been very slow and there is not much new to talk about. In fact, today's NYSE volume of 747 million shares traded (CQG data) makes it the slowest day of the year and that includes holiday-shortened trading days. Prices have been chopping around, with the Dow's up-and-down stabs forming a potential wedge, similar to the larger wedge that unfolded into the August 9 high. The above chart highlights the similarity between the two periods. It appears that The DJIA will kick up to the 10,500-10,550 range to complete the final leg of the wedge, which is just above today's close.

However, the S&P made a new recovery high this afternoon at 1110.88, which was not confirmed by the DJIA or the NASDAQ, so one could make the case that the rise is complete, culminating in today's small non-confirmation. Prices would need to come under 10,332.40 (DJIA) and 1091.15 (S&P) in order raise the odds that a near-term trend reversal had occurred. A break of these levels would allow us to conclude that the wedge was complete; it would allow us also to eliminate a bullish triangle wave formation (starting Monday) and leave only a flat as the remaining bullish potential. In the meantime, we will respect the ability of the major stock indexes to make another upward stab, which should complete the wedge.


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rdumas
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 03:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I've been away from the market a few hours and note that the XJO managed to get to wave equality during that time.

Whist the particular ascending wedge pattern that you originally discussed was one that would normally lead to a continuance of trend, the larger wedge pattern for the SPX in my experience would normally break down with a move to the base of the pattern as an initial move.




The main difficulty is determining just how much of a Throw Over we get for leg e. I suspect that it may attempt to close the gap sitting above it near the 1119 level.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 04:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ETF GOLD

Hi Bill,

I would think that if ETF GOLD doesn't bounce off the 61.8% retrace level (just below the 150 day SMA) then it's dead meat.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 04:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



....and of course guys the SPX MA (200) @ 1115.60 will provide a strong barrier too...

Others across on ODB are 'extremely' Bullish - so we'll see!


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rdumas
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 04:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Have a look at the share market of one of the worlds largest economies and one of our largest trading partners. With friends like that ..........





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 04:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re the bullish guys on the ODB thread. I actually agree with them because I am bullish once this correction is over. What I don't agree with is their timing. I am bearish until sometime in October and then I'll turn bullish for a few months. It would not surprise me at all if the XJO got to the 61.8% retrace level of the November 2007 plunge (5426) by the end of my anticipated rally.

However sometime late in the first half of 2011 I will turn into a super bear. If my EW count is correct, that is when we will find out about all of the sovereign risk issues with the larger economies. I would anticipate being a super bear until sometime in 2013 at this stage.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 05:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Spy has the SPX at 1115.20 with a few hours to the open. SPX MA (200) @ 1115.60 looks the target? Pump & Dump look out...

Rudy, the problem I still see with a substantial rally (XJO to a 5426 high) is those extremely poor US Economic Indicators ALL pointing south....not one of them is heading north. Perhaps sometime in October we might see some 'green shoots' to appear from the US to give cause for the rally. If those Economic numbers bottomed and turned that would give the market the hope it needs.

As many of the 'Economic Guru's' (Roubini etc) are painting a very gloomy outlook....it doesn't fill me with a great degree of confidence that those Indicators will get any better - perhaps they might get worse.

I still prefer your idea of the EW Count to others, but there will need to be a bit of magic out of the USA to make it run.

But that's a month away...we can deal with that then...

bill


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rdumas
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 05:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG Price Action

Hi Bill,

Just had a look at the POG price action matey and it doesn't look very healthy. It has broken down through the medium term ascending trend line and needs to get itself back above it if it is to continue its rally. it already has had a failed back test.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 06:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

....or could it be a perfect entry point in an A/B or 1/2 corrective step....before a surge north?

In anticipation of a major 15-20% correction of the SPX south, what is your target Rudy for the $AUD and POG.

My feeling is 10% increase to POG as a flight to safety & 10% decline (minimum) in $AUD, giving a +20% target for GOLD @ >$155.....

Trader Dan's Thoughts:

The Commitment of Traders report for this week reveals pretty much the norm for both the gold and silver markets that we have seen over the past 9 years or so. Speculators consisting mainly of the big funds and the smaller public were buying while the commercial category was selling.

First for gold – managed money flows remain in gold through Tuesday of last week which was countered by bullion bank and swap dealer selling (those two categories can sometimes include the same entity). While the commercial position is not the largest on record, the swap dealer is just shy of a record by some 3,000 contracts.

That sets up a situation where we have a large number of speculative longs sitting in the gold market with prices stalling out near $1,260. The potential for some stale long liquidation is definitely there as a result of the loss of upside momentum so we will want to see how price acts should any downside technical levels be taken out. Quite frankly I would like to see some downside movement in gold just to test the market action to see how aggressive dip buyers will be. Today they were obvious with the decent sized push up off the worst levels of the session. If they continue this sort of stand, bears are going to be quite frustrated and some of the weaker hands will be forced to cover. One way or the other we are going to see rather quickly what kind of strength is in this market.

In a market in a truly strong bullish phase, dips are rather short-lived as buyers are always EAGER to get into the market or to add to existing positions. Thus setbacks in price uncover more buying than they do selling and price quickly reverses and resumes the original trend, which in the case of gold is higher. Since this market is a managed market by the feds, the price action is always a bit inconsistent with a freely traded market but the pattern should hold true – dips will be shallow and not long-lived in spite of the never ending capping action by the bullion bank crowd.

September does tend to be a very strong seasonal month for gold so that is in favor of the bulls. The key will be whether the longs hold their ground and attempt to defend their positions. If they do, a new high is shortly in the cards. If they run, we will have to see how long stronger-handed bulls wait to wade back in and snatch up more of the yellow metal.

Let’s see what next week brings. The key as in last week is a closing push through the $1,260 level. If the bulls can get price back up and through that level, the bears are going to be forced to retreat


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billt
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 06:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wave 3 ready for take off!!




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ken
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Monday, September 13, 2010 - 08:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Billt,

IG markets has their SPY equivalent at 1119.8 ATM. Has been as high as 1122 tonight.


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billt
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010 - 06:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi guys

I took positions on the x3 bear ETF’s just before the close.

I sense that the SPX topped out last night @ 1123.87 and at the close we had the first wave i & ii completed of the initial movement down.

If this is not the top we are pretty close to it.

Picked up my ETF’s at great levels, so I’m set:

FAZ 12.84
TZA 29.30

Also picked up a smaller lots of DRV, BGZ. Holding my GOLD.





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market_mad
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010 - 07:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Came across this info I thought might be of interest to you;

Current odds of further market deterioration by the close of business October 15, 2010, according to gambling action in October 16, 2010 options, were, as of the close:

FAZ.....3.62 to 1......Calls, 20,924......Puts, 5,788.
TZA.....10.31 to 1....Calls, 12,091......Puts, 1,173.
QID.....9.55 to 1......Calls, 4,260........Puts, 496.
BGZ....3.86 to 1......Calls, 1,077........Puts, 279.

Eye-opening was the heavy wagering on out-of-the-money VIX October 20, 2010 call options. These were traded all the way up to a strike price of 65. In contrast, the volume for VIX October 20, 2010 put options with a strike price under 20 was 359, the handle being US$5,385.

FAZ October 16, 2010 call options were traded all the way up to a strike price of 35. Its put options for that expiration date saw a volume of 52 for strike prices below 11, the handle being US$312. TZA October 16, 2010 call options were traded all the way up to a strike price of 61. Its put options for that expiration date with strike prices under 23 saw a volume of 18, the handle being US$1,656.

Cheers
MM


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billt
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WOW!

Thanks MM.

That's were the 'Big Boys' obviously play....more like Monte Carlo than Wall Street!

I sense the SPX might see a very large gap on the open, and if you are not set on these TZA & FAZ etfs you can miss out on 10% instantly....so I took a bit of a calculated punt that we are fairly close to the top. The sell-off immediately after the open on the SPX looked convincingly lame for the Bulls. The closing Double Top looked too good to refuse.

If Rudy's 20% SPX correction gets rolling, these ETF's will gain 60% to 70%....all good fun!

thanks for the info - either 'eye opening' or 'totally scary' ....

cheers
Bill


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paint
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Hi Bill,

Just wondering whether you got confirmation on the 15/30/60min MAs?

Got stopped out of some bank shorts yesterday which I will leave on the side for the time being. This market is certainly in a bullish phase at the moment - particularly in the mid-cap area


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market_mad
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Latest from EW;

Cheers
MM

Bottom Line]: Fewer and fewer investors are expecting the market to fall from near current levels. Once stocks complete their rise, the larger downtrend that started in late-April should resume.

The DJIA pushed to 10,567.60 intraday this morning, 17 points above the 10,500-10,550 range we cited Friday night. By the close (10,544.10), prices were back within the zone. Today's high occurred at the 78.6% (sq.rt. of .618) retracement of the decline from the August 9 high. As the chart shows, today's close was the second straight day that the index tested the down-sloping trendline formed by connecting the April 26 high, which we label Primary wave 2 (circle), with the August 9 high, which we label Minor wave 2. It appears that the market thinks this line is important, so we should too. A close much above it would likely lead to a continued push above the August 9 high. It crosses approximately 10,550 tomorrow.

The size of this morning's push eliminates the wedge shape of the final rally leg. Instead, prices appear to have jumped higher from the end of a running triangle (see EWP, p.49), which essentially carries the same implication for future price moves as the aforementioned wedge. Triangle's most often precede the final run in an Elliott wave sequence, so this morning's "thrust" should be the end of the rise from late August.

While the Dow was pushing to its down-sloping trendline, the S&P exceeded its equivalent line. However, in doing so, the index filled an open gap at 1121.06, left at the close of trading on August 10. A decline beneath 1109.55 (1105 in the E-mini) would make today's up gap opening an exhaustion gap, which would be one more sign that prices have reversed lower near term. A rise by both the DJIA and S&P above their respective August 9 highs — 10,719.90 and 1129.24 — would introduce varying options for the wave structure. If this were to occur, we would have to assess the push relative to the prevailing indicators at that time to determine if the move was a "head fake," or had greater potential. The Dow remains over 6% beneath its April 26 top. That high of 11,258 remains the best candidate to mark the end of Primary wave 2 (circle).

The above chart plots the weekly DJIA from 2006 to the present (top line) and from late 1998 to summer of 2003 (bottom line). I've shaded the pertinent areas on the chart, each representing four of the biggest market turns of the past ten years (the upper right turn is our forecast; the market will determine whether it's correct.) What's striking is the similarity of form in each of these separate market turns. Obviously, the subtleties of each pattern are unique, but the overall form of a top — an initial decline after a long rally, a higher high thereafter, a relatively steep decline from this higher high and then a final upward retracement (oftentimes deep) — have manifest with each major reversal since the January 2000 top. The October 2002 low shows a similar form, but in the opposite direction (i.e., a bottom.) I did not include the March 2009 low in this illustration because the first reactionary decline from June-July 2009 was not deep enough to conform to the pattern, in my opinion. Market technicians might label each of these moves a head-and-shoulders pattern, or, better still, a diamond, but each of the three previous instances — January 2000, October 2002 and October 2007, led to significant moves in the opposite direction of the move into the start of the pattern. If the current configuration matches the previous ones, stocks should soon end their countertrend push and start working their way lower.

Some people speculate that the Dow's current movements form a head-and-shoulders bottom, but according to Edwards and Magee, the "bible" of technical analysis, current volume statistics do not conform to their definition of this pattern.


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Hehehehehehe. One thing that I learned a long time ago is that one should never assume that because there is a correlation between two different stocks (or indices) over a period of time that it will automatically mean that the correlation will remain into the future.

Below is the correlation between the POG and SPX over the last 10 years. That should be enough evidence for you that the recent inverse relationship between the POG and SPX of recent times may not necessarily hold into the future.




There is every possibility that investors may just move into the US$ rather than gold when the market tanks. If you look at the chart that I posted for the POG (and you reposted), that the move down was a 5 wave move.

Now I am not suggesting that the POG cannot continue its rally............. what I am suggesting is that it doesn't have to.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Hi Rudy,

I've been a long follower of POG and I just can't see it going to US$1500+. When you start to see stands in shopping centres which will "Buy your Gold For $$$$" - it concerns me that everyone is on the bandwagon at the wrong time.

I was buying gold when it was US$580 an ounce and happily sold out when it got to US$1100.

I believe that people will flock back to the USD - it looks primed for the next run up as long as the 80.09 level (the August 6 low) on the USD index holds which should coincide with a fall in markets.

Cheers
MM


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ken
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Market Mad,

re your post at 7:15am

For those of us who don't understand options and your gambling ratio's, could you explain what these figures are saying about the likely direction of the market by different dates please?

(Message edited by ken on September 14, 2010)


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rdumas
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Hi MM,

Wow, that was a nice ride for you.

I remain a long term bull on the POG. My concern is more for the next few weeks/months. We can see from the chart below that the 50 and 150 day SMAs are trending nicely in the right direction. The 150 day SMA has acted as a strong support for the medium term and the 50 day SMA for the short term. I suspect that any one who has some gold bullion stashed away somewhere will do well in the next couple of years.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Guys,

There are a number of EW analysts who had the previous top of 1129.24 as a wave (ii) and the current rally as a wave ii. I'm glad that its not my count because for it to remain valid it means that the current rally must terminate below the 1129.24 level.

If you have a look at the chart below you will see that a similar rate of wave formation that is taking place now took place not too long ago. Note that I said similar.... not the same. This time is marginally slower. This sort of rate of wave formation however is unsustainable and will obviously finish in the near future.

If we have the same range as last time, we should complete this rally just below that critical 1129.24 level. If not those Elliott Wavers can wave goodbye to their wave count.




The really interesting thing that I will watch unfold is not the possibly 'close call' in the two tops but what sort of retracement takes place after that event. If the retracement is less than 50% then the bearish case for the market will look questionable.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010 - 10:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Randall's Mars Lines

Hi Guys,

This is an Astro chart that Randall sent me a couple of days ago for the SPX which shows one of the all important descending Mars lines closing in on the SPX price action around the $1135 level. Randall could probably give us a closer approximation of exactly what that level is currently.

application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet
spx mars lines.xlsx (428.9 k)



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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The Bullish Case


Hi Guys,

I always like to present views that are not the same as mine. The following is the bullish case presented by Gann Global Financial. Ignore their sell job of their services but look at the technical stuff that they present. They show the striking similarities between the current period and that which occurred in 1921 to 1924. I hope that the link works properly.

(video link) Big Picture: Financial Market DNA Matches 1921 Bust Cycle
:http://www.gannglobal.com/ppf-nl/2010//09/ppf-u10.html?idev_id=109&idev_username =formersub


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Hola!

Pollyanna Mars ... 1139/1140.

I wouldn't bet the farm on that stopping it.

Y'all are very Bearish for indices which keep breaking Resistance - horizontal and angular - while maintaining place in an uptrend channel with virtually no negative divergence in oscillators.

application/msword1
1.doc (115.2 k)



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billt
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Hi Guys

A few queries in the posts there – I’ll give you my thoughts.

US Options Expiration occurs this week which normally gives ground for increased volatility.

VIX is in a bullish falling wedge and is testing the lower bands of the BB. We have a bullish hollow red candle.

On SPX Daily we continue to see a bearish inverted positioned set of MAs on the 200/100/50/20. The SPX Daily Ascending/Symmetrical Triangle ABCDE pattern looks set to complete. The overhead resistance is at 1129. On the 60 minute we see bearish divergences with Bollinger Bands /High Low Price Channel testing the upper levels.

The Inverse ETF’s (TZA & FAZ) show bullish divergence. The 15 minute MA’s have begun to cross on TZA & FAZ during the session highs. I normally wait until all charts at the 15/30/60 minutes turn, but I sense that based upon low volume over the past 6 trading days, that we could easily see a large gap down at the open for these etfs (10%+) and these price levels may not be repeated. I have taken a ‘flyer’ this time – hopefully it works out….

SPX may rise another 0.5% (6 points) from 1123 to 1129 to test overhead resistance, but it could equally dive 3% to 5% at the open. If I enter within 1% of the actual top I am normally elated!

If I have picked the top at 1123 – well Rudy will have to award me ‘Mr E’Dubya of the Week’ surely, with that little wave i/wave ii entry point!

For me GOLD continues to be a ‘short’ play, but I do accept that it may not play out on each occasion. With the Fed printing zillions of greenbacks daily it’s a hedge.

Rudy, your quote: “If the retracement is less than 50% then the bearish case for the market will look questionable”

If we are to see your ‘big push down’ from these levels on SPX to say 950, I assume you would expect to see two big drops of say 90/100 points. Say a quick push back to support at 1040, a short a/b rally, and then a further push south. Is that the sort of thing?


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

The SPX has been range trading between 1040 and 1130 since around the 25th May with one break down to 1010.9. It will obviously break out of one of those limits at some stage and that will set the stage for where the market will head to.

I tend to be in your camp at this stage of the game but this week will tell us if the 1130 is going to hold or not. There is only one EW analyst of any consequence that I know of (Anthony Caldaro) who has a bullish count at present so if the 1130 doesn't hold by far the majority of EW analysts are going to have to readjust their EW counts.

I think that you are a brave man to take a punt on the 300% shorting stocks with so many contradictory indicators at present. I can't recall a time before where I have seen so many mixed signals. It certainly doesn't fill me with confidence. I hope for your sake that fortune favours the brave on this occasion. To me its just too close to an each way bet to take a punt.

We won't really know that a big plunge is on until that 1040 hurdle gets cleared. Once that happens everyone will be forced to become a bear.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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TZA Insight

Hi Bill,

Just having a look at TZA for you. The one thing in your favour is that TZA is displaying perfect time symmetry at this stage so if it is a truly symmetrical rounded top type of pattern then you may have timed things to perfection.

You had better hope that nature is symmetrical.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thanks Rudy

Love that Symmetry! I just need a big right shoulder to $60 to complete the picture..

Since May TZA & TNA (TZAs bull counterpart) has had 6 up legs and 6 down legs of roughly equal magnitude! Swing Traders delight....a lot of 30% to 40% moves on TZA and vis versa...

I don't mind buying into what I see as a conclusion to a rally with such a strong overhead resistance in place, and particularly into the concluding leg of a rally on such low volumes. Horrendous US economic indicators give the bear side a very strong case.

I am taking the view that rather than 'position' trade, I will partake in more of a 'swing' trade operation on the bear side from here. Perhaps simply selling and re entering against set indicators.

I'll play the 'bull' etfs TNA & FAS sparringly - and only if we get more bullish indicators both fundamental & technical. There was plenty to be made on the Bull ETFs in the past 5 months, so you can't discount them...

When you get a chance Rudy, can you remind me of the wave pattern types you expect to see when your Wave C sets off. Will it be a ABC format, with strong impulsive waves at A & C. Wave B perhaps to set up half way down @ support 1040? thanks

Bill


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

The pattern for Minor wave C should be either an impulse wave or an ending diagonal (ie, a 5 wave pattern). If it is an impulse wave then you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between my count and that of Prechter with the exception being that his third wave would go down a lot further than mine. In fact his would take out the March 2009 low whereas mine would not even go close.

If it is an ending diagonal then we would get an early indication that Prechter's count is incorrect because you can't have an ending diagonal as a third wave of an impulse wave.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Hey Rudy and BillT...

Where are you 'viewing' the ETFs that you are both referring to; not from I.C. available data I'm guessing (as I have yet to find it)....like to take a look at their charts(data) myself.

Appreciation in advance.

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

Check out the following link for TZA.


http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/chart.action?s=TZA&chartUi.period=D&chartUi.barde nsity=MEDIUM&chartUi.bartype=CANDLE&chartUi.size=650x450&chartUi.minutes=


As the address is spread over a couple of lines you will have to do a cut and paste.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Thanks Rudy,

Twas only visiting that site earlier this morning to checkout Precious and Base Metal Futures data/charts....didn't think to try for the ETF's there.

Dolphin

P.S. Pity these are not available via I.C. Data...but you can't have everything, right!


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

Have to agree. I waste a lot of time erasing the company information from the charts before posting. It would save me a lot of valuable time.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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At the end of the day

In spite of a strong lead from Wall Street last night most of the Asian indices closed in a pretty unimpressive fashion. Could this be the time for an SPX pull back and if so how far?

The XJO is still trending fairly strongly at this stage but it would not take a large decline to break the ascending trend line support that started on the 25th August.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi P3T3,

I could be wrong but I thought that Dolphin was talking about intraday charts.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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p3t3
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010 - 04:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Tuesday, September 14, 2010 - 04:52 pm:

I could be wrong but I thought that Dolphin was talking about intraday charts


OK, thanks Rudy. The link was to a daily chart.







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market_mad
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Hi Ken,

Sorry mate - just saw your post about the options just now. I picked this info off the Market Watch website, I'm not entirely sure what it means - Bill seemed to be excited about and as he is wheeling and dealing in these investments he is probably best to answer, however I will try.

I know that if you are betting on the market to go down you buy put options or sell call options and if you think its going up you sell puts or buy calls. What I posted earlier doesn't clarify if the money was going into selling calls or buying calls. Therefore, in hindsight, I probably shouldn't have posted that without having all of the relevant info at hand.

Cheers
MM

ASX Stocks 20-minute delayed

 
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