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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through September 17, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 17, 2010

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 10:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Correspondence between Stock New Highs and the Stock Market New Highs


Here's an interesting insight into the latest price action on the SPX.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 11:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Thanks for that....I totally agree with your comments.

1. EWW Posts should include some form of an EW idea, or limited TA or FA to support an EW Count idea - otherwise post it on ODB;

2. Big Bull (Caldaro type) & Big Bear (Prechter type) EW Counts most welcomed.

3. 'Newbies' (like me) asking silly EW questions always welcomed.

Those with idiotic, unfactual, abusive and bizarre personality traits - please form your own Thread and see if you can get any followers (friends)!

Cheer up Rudy, the 'Regulars' here enjoy your insight...

Contrary to views by others expressed above you did forecast this last rally leg up, and your analysis has been 'bang-on' target....you often give caution to other possibilities that may emerge.

If you want to post on this Thread we now have some rules!

Bill







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rash
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 11:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



But I have all of those personality traits!

Starting to see the first signs of real weakness.

Rudy, in my head is a count which says the channel rise is a subdividing 5 wave ... now in 4 of 5 and needing one more rise over 1 or 2 days to complete. I'd value your thoughts!

application/msword1
1.doc (124.4 k)



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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 11:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

Did you notice the subtle change in the price action for the SPX. The ascending trendline has moved from support to resistance.




It's only a start but as the add says "from little things big things grow".


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 11:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We make exceptions for you Astro Boy!


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billt
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 11:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy

re: your post 3998

On my post 256 this morning, on the SPX 15 min chart, it did appear that we had a potential i/ii set up at the close after the Trendline was broken?

Trendline Broken/Lower Lows/Lower Highs/Divergence/VIX breaks trendline etc...

These topping patterns (if it is one) are difficult to read...but I sense we are close to the reversal on SPX.


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paint
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 11:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good morning all,

I refer to Bill's post 260. What are the implications for wave (2) if E exceeds either A or C.

I apologise in advance if this has been covered already in previous posts.

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 12:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

I think that you are probably close to the mark. Here is a possible count which could be in play at this time. I have plagiarised a count that Paul Thomason from Elliott Wave Market Service has presented but for a slightly different larger wave count.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 12:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well, sorta technical to fit the rules. I can also see a count where Pollyanna is in the 5th wave of the rally.

Bill ... if you check the April top, it hit a Mars/Mercury line intersection exactly. That Mars is just overhead and sitting with a significant Neptune. If you're looking for a price to watch closely, I'd reckon 1136.60.

application/msword2
2.doc (136.2 k)



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rash
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 12:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hola, Rudy!

Thanks for the E-Dubya details! Yes, it's what it looks like to me ... and also fits with a rise into "exaggerated delusion" timeframe.


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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 12:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Paint,

That would not be a problem. Throw Overs (ie, where leg e breaks through the Triangle boundary are very common and are caused because of the 'breakout pop' that I mentioned in my earlier post this morning. Remember those stop losses get taken out and this causes the breakout pop.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 12:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Of course - thanks Rudy


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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 12:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Once we start drilling down into too low a time frame we are almost counting the 'droplets' rather than the waves. You could very well be correct but for my type of trading/investing I don't really need to be that fussy. To me, the indications are that if we are in the pattern that I'm expecting then the next significant move will be down.

Whether a breakout pop takes the index up further than the Triangle boundary is of no concern to me. What is of more importance would be the type of pattern that may emerge. It will be the new pattern that will tell me if my original count is incorrect.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 12:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here's another test of that all important trend line folks.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 12:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill, a couple of alternatives - depending on whether it's Thursday or Friday.

Earlier figure was for Friday. Thursday would be 1139.40 - though Barry has a Fibonacci number at 1139.69.

If Pollyanna can't reach 1139/1136, the alternative would be 1134.20ish.

Resiling from any of those would lend support to the finishing count Rudy has detailed.

A firm close on top of 1136/1139 and we'll all have to go back to the drawing board for the near-term direction.


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ehmu
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 01:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm really enjoying reading the posts on this forum. For me though I'm looking for some validation regarding what probability that I see the markets doing next. To make it more grounded would be to connect it to a trade.

For example, I have scaled in to TZA with two small positions in the last few days based on my view of the SPX making a near term reversal. My mid term view is that the markets could remain range bound, and won't necessarily drop like a stone.

I hope that I'm not sounding impudent here, I'm way too old to be impudent.

Sorry, I have a chart to post, but have run out of time.


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rash
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 01:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello, Emhu

Whether the markets drop like a stone is the $64,000 question, probably literally in the case of some posters here!

The discussion is actually connected to trades, though everyone needs to extrapolate to their individual leanings. We all trade some proxy of the indices, whether it's CFDs or ETFs.

As to continuing to being range-bound, it would depend on the level of the range. Markets have, in fact, been rangebound for over a year ... and the state of the technical indicators suggests that is now getting ready to breakout or breakdown.

That may simply mean breaking into a wider range than has been the case for the past few months, or even the whole year.

I can understand your concern that markets may not drop like a stone. In fact, whether they do, or not, will probably answer the question.

If the next drop is sharp - but shallow and without much damage to oscillators - then the correction which began in April is likely to have run its course and markets will rise for at least several months.

At this stage, and using different techniques, I think almost everyone here is anticipating a drop into October.

But, we're also expecting that once it's over, there will be a strong, multi-month rally.

The Bullish-now case is that the imminent decline will be relatively shallow and brief because it's only a temporary pause in a rise from a correction which actually ended in early July.

Keep reading ... because you can rest assured none of us will be wanting to stay Short if we believe the correction is over and we're on our way to taking out the April highs!


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billt
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 02:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy & Randall for your posts -

I drill down to the 15 minute charts for my position trades. The SPX EW count helped a lot Rudy as did the other targets Randall - so thanks.

The VIX is giving us all a big hint at the moment - it often bottoms a few days before the SPX tops....


Hi ehmu,

Welcome to the world of ETF Shorts....

May I suggest you watch the daily webcast blogs of Ron Walker from California on http://thechartpatterntrader.com/. He trades TZA & FAZ and his trading techniques are pretty useful. Start with the 14th Sept set first, then move onto the 15th Sept - it will take an hour but well worth it....Ron's EW work is a bit shabby at times (after you get used to Rudy's!) - but his other work is fine...he has all the 15/30/60 minute charts on his Public Chart List.

Paint - perhaps it might help you too, have a look....you may need to watch a week of them to get the drift, but as it appears we are at a turning point on SPX it makes an interesting time to spend a bit of time understanding his approach.

Let me know if you don't understand something.

Bill


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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 02:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GOLD

Hi Folks,

I found this article rather interesting.

The headline comment in the article was as follows:

Since the Washington Agreement was first signed in September 1999, the central bank “gold year” has begun and ended in September. With this gold year almost at an end, gold consultant GFMS anticipates that global central banks will have net bought around 15 tonnes. The last time the world's central banks were net buyers rather than net sellers was in 1988.


The link is as follows: http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=17980


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 03:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bill - looks interesting


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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 03:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

It may be nothing of course but at the very least it means that the rally that started on the 25th August is starting to show some weakness.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 03:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




market_mad wrote on Wednesday, September 15, 2010 - 11:10 pm:

Therefore, I am fully expecting that once this buyer is gone, we will see some serious selling back into our market. We are up about 9% over the past couple of weeks so a pullback of some sort is definitely on the cards.

But do keep an eye out for a big spike up in the morning to 10.10am then I expect we will peel back for most of the day.




Well, it didn't really spike up at the open, but definitely held it's ground and has peeled off for most of the day as I expected.

I went short on the open this morning and will be looking to hold onto these babies for as long as possible

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 03:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Thanks for giving us that Chart Pattern Trader link. I have never seen his stuff before and I was amused to see that he had a similar trendline crossover that I had in my post 3998. I love that accent and the way he approaches the various indicators. He is now in my list of favourites.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 03:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well done MM. Like you I thought that we may see the XJO get a bit closer to our targets of 4675~4702 but I guess we'll have to be happy with a 4670.

I followed Bill into ETF GOLD yesterday so hope that Bernanke doesn't crank up the presses too soon so that the AUD drops to help my trade. I normally don't like entering a trade in a 5th wave but with commodities these final waves can take a while to complete. I'll start getting anxious when the POG hits $1300 because I still have a target between there and $1350. I hope of course that Bill's $1500 is achieved but I'm not too sure about that level.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 03:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi,

I'm attaching a discussion of "ranges" for Ehmu's benefit. I tried to put the charts up here, but kept getting knocked back on size limits.

Ehmu isn't Canadian mickey-taking of our randy national bird, is it?

application/mswordRanges
ranges.doc (492.0 k)



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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 04:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

As usual, excellent stuff.

By the way could Ehmu be a male (he) emu looking backwards (eh). Gosh, and people think EW is complicated.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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p3t3
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 04:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 10:30 am:

I would prefer that Pete didn't encourage that childish behavior.


Sorry Rudy

Off-topic now, I acknowledge, but a public apology is in order - I have prompted you into a defence of your methodology and track record. Neither needs defending. Both are supported by the respect shown by posters in this thread (Sway being the exception, perhaps).

So I've caused a mis-allocation of your time, which is much better spent assessing the probabilities of various alternative emerging patterns. That requires an apology.

I didn't think the point about quadruple witching was completely off-topic. If looking for an event to correspond with the completion of wave e ...it fits, more or less.

I'll certainly undertake to post off-topic content elsewhere, if at all.

with respect
Pete


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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 04:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thank you Pete. Apology accepted. I don't think that your other comments were off topic at all. It would be a pity if you felt that your thoughts weren't welcome here as I respect your market savvy big time so please continue to post.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 04:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO at the close

Well, could this be it? Sometimes when long awaited anticipated events occur we can't believe that they have finally arrived. I await with anticipation.

We certainly have had a clear 5 wave move up so the signs are good. Bill may well have been right with his reading of the "drops" (microscopic lower levels) because our market would have fallen to a large degree on the basis of the US futures market. If so the US market would be in line for a type of wave 3 drop. Naturally enough if true it would only be a wave 3 of a lower level wave but its a start.

The XJO found support at an obvious support level.




Readers will remember the maze of planetary line support immediately below the current level so there may be further support to initially slow things down (or dread the thought, another wave up). If you look at the two significant declines however from the 13th May and the 21st June you can see that zones that may have offered resistance on the way up do not necessarily offer support on the way down.

If we are initiating my anticipated Minor wave C at this time and we are to complete that pattern by sometime in October then we need to get a wriggle on. Remember that Minor wave A took around 5 weeks to complete.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 06:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MM - cracking call!! On webiress - what is the code for the SPI?

Bill - Chart Pattern Trader is a fantastic site - thanks


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billt
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 06:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have been concerned as to how Rudy's & Randall's EW October 2010 Multi-Month Rally will be sustained by Fundamental Economic Indicators. I might just have found a worm which is turning!

“The U.S. Census Bureau announced that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month.

The retail sales report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. The changes in retail sales are widely followed as the most timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Retail sales are often viewed ex-autos, as auto sales can move sharply from month-to-month. It is also important to keep an eye on the gas and food components, where changes in sales are often a result of price changes rather than shifting consumer demand.

Retail sales can be quite volatile and the advance reports are subject to rather large revisions. Retail sales do not include spending on services, which makes up over half of total consumption. Total personal consumption is not available until the personal income and consumption reports are released, typically two weeks after retail sales.”

End quote

I look at the raw data, rather than the commentary by the press – it’s boring but sometimes informative.

Here is some possibly POSITIVE NEWS to add to a catalogue of woeful economic fundamentals of late.

Time to concentrate....don't fall asleep yet!

The high for this indicator was in Nov 07 @ 379.960 b. We then fell to a Dec 08 low @ 335.614b. We then rose to an April 10 high @ 365.997b, before falling sharply (in relative terms) to a June 10 low @ 361.170b.

The SPX/DOW followed pretty closely!

Here is the possible GOOD NEWS:

This important indicator has RISEN modestly to July 10 @ 362.189b and August 10 @ 363.704b - another month at this pace will be getting us back to April 10 highs...and give confidence to Rudy/Randall’s multi month rally.

We need to get better than expected GDP figures & Unemployment figures, but Retail Sales may be a start?

....(But please can we have a correction first!)


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billt
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 06:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Paint/Rudy

Pleased you like "This IS Ron Walker...." - he is a lot of fun. You feel like you are in California - its great!

I have watched him for a few months now, and have my own game trying to assess what he will say before he posts his daily blog.

He needs some better EW help I feel at times Rudy...he is a Prechter Type man.

He does a lot of FA which is usually very informative if you click on the links but has not picked up the 'Retail Sales' thing as yet....


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market_mad
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 07:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Paint,

The code for the SPI is APZ0.SFE (- the 0 is a zero)

Cheers
MM


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billt
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 08:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi ehmu

In anticipation of the next rally, I analysis how each of the Direxion ETF's have performed in the preceding rally.

TNA usually wins and it has won again! I normally buy FAS as well.

DRN can be volatile, and can go ballistic.

LBJ/DZK/EDC are thriving base indices so might be worth a punt if you are keen.

FAS might go harder in a sustained multi month rally.

Hard to beat TNA...

Latest Rally Figures for the previous 2 week September rally:

TNA Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares 37.3%
DRN Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares 37.2%
LBJ Daily Latin America Bull 3x Shares 36.2%
DZK Daily Developed Markets Bull 3X Shares 35.7%
EDC Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares 33.8%.
FAS Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares 33.7%
MWJ Daily Mid Cap Bull 3x Shares 31.4%
TYH Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares 30.7%
SOXL Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares 30.1%

I find TNA & FAS easier to deal with as they have some relevance to the SPX and the 15/30/60min charts are on Ron Walkers site..when the market turns north.

Bill


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billt
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 08:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I forgot to add -

Over the same period SPX went up 8.4%....so these are turbo charged!


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billt
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 08:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Rudy

...any chance you can buy some BHP to make this market fall! It normally works! :-)


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rdumas
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Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 09:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Bill,

Seeing as how you were being cheeky about me buying BHP, I thought I would let you know that I would probably do that if the SPX starts moving up from the 1130 level with any conviction.

Ever heard of a reverse head and shoulders pattern?





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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p3t3
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 02:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




paint wrote on Thursday, September 16, 2010 - 06:07 pm:

MM - cracking call!!


Yes, acknowledgement....outstanding call MM, well done.


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ehmu
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 03:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey, wow:

Thanks for the welcome. And all your efforts and intuition regarding my introduction to the forum.

Bill, Rudy, and Randall I think are the proper names, if not I'll get it right next time.

Checked out the walker's take bill, your comments well taken, he is very thorough on the TA, and brief on the EW. Thanks muchly for the detailed symbol picks.

My name is Hal, short for harold. My initials are HM, thus part of my handle. EHMU is a fibonacci series, and also on the money comment from the board---I am a canadian, eh.

As to the comment about Emu being your randy national bird, was a little confusing, did you mean randy or did you mean randy ?

Thanks also for the work on trend lines and multi timeframe ranges, all of which I appreciated.

I've shown on the attached charts, the narrowing range on the longer term chart described by the slightly bearish pennant. On the daily attached chart, I've shown the target area that makes me a little hesitant to be confidently in my bearish position TZA.

Within the pennant there are still many possibilities up and down, most of which have been discussed on this forum. It would disappoint me, but not surprise me if SPX goes to 1160 area before stalling.

There is a very high quality of analysis found here, and I appreciate all of it. I also appreciate the fact that by virtue of the leaders, the analysis converges on actionable probabilities. The tendency of much EW analysis seems to be divergent in nature, so normally I take a wide birth.

thanks again




(Message edited by ehmu on September 17, 2010)


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ehmu
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 03:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Rdumas (randy?):

I'm not that familiar with the inverted H&S, but I do remember a soon to be forgotten head and shoulder pattern that ripped me another wallet pocket.






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ehmu
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 03:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Head and Shoulders expanded view---SPY




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ehmu
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 05:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Not to presume anything, or give you more work.

I wonder about the EW count on $VLA (value line index). This is an equal weighting of stocks, rather than the price skewed indexes. I wouldn't know where to start with the wave count. Just thinking there may be additional clues on the chart for $VLA ($VLE $XVG fvl).

I did notice that price relative to the 89ema, the chart looks a little more bullish than SPY to me.






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paint
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 07:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MM - thanks again

Some good tech news announced after US close which could support our market today, plus it seems that the TED spread is contracting - banks are starting to lend again.


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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

Friends call me Rudy (not rdumas).....as for randy, I think that I was probably a monk in the last life.

Inverted H&S patterns are no different in operation to normal H&S patterns. Most of the major indices have some pretty major H&S patterns coming into play (some of the smaller ones already have) which is why people like Robert McHugh are such bears. At this stage I don't think that they will play out in this part of the cycle anyway.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 08:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tomorrow is OPEX Friday and maybe the SPX will break-out of this sideways triangle

The SPX is really getting squeezed by the Bollinger bands as they continue to tighten, expect a large move here very soon as the SPX breaks out of this consolidation phase and a large gap open would not be surprising.

Momentum on this rally continues to wane; this rally is running on fumes.

Black Friday likely? Hanging man reversal candle? Many are heading for the exits, before the stampede starts.

SPX Daily has now set up bearish mMm MACD histogram patterns as has many other indices in the Daily timeframe. Other than that comments as per yesterday.

TAZ has had a Bullish Cross of MA’s in the 15 min chart, putting in a higher low. I am already set on my TAZ position @ 29.27. My normal position would have been to buy in at the bullish cross, so I’ve bought in 2% lower than I would have otherwise had. Stop at just below the low @ 29.10.



Ed, I have looked at $VLA but it’s not one that I follow. Rudy might have a better idea on the EW count, but I would suggest that one option would be an ABC correction (red letters) – similar to Rudy’s main EW count. The other option is the Prechter Type Count (yellow numbers) which would have you at the top of a very big slippery dip ready to go to levels below the graph! (or a trip to ‘Hell’ as Rudy suggests). There is a ‘Heaven’ option to ….but I don’t favor that option right at this moment - the worlds been far too naughty for us all to be allowed to go there just yet!





Rudy, please buy some BHP....go on, just a couple! :-)


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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 08:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Randy Rudy! I love it! Only after a few lobsters & SCC's...


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rdumas
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Sorry mate, my plans are to buy BHP possibly sometime mid to late October. At that time I'll buy a lot of it.

Cheers

Randy


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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cat_lady
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 09:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

"Randy"?

you been winning bets with eugenio again?

cheers
cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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rdumas
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 09:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I'll respond to your comment about the AUD on this thread as it is EW oriented.

Looking at the AUD daily chart it looks like we have completed 5 waves up in that last rally leg starting the 25th August.





Note that I have encircled the last wave of the above chart. I have then drilled into that section in the chart below to show that it too has completed a wave pattern.





Now as you said in your post on the ODB thread, that declining pattern since the last impulse wave certainly does look corrective. It could also be seen as a leading diagonal but would be more convincing if it sloped down more. If it is corrective then obviously it will have another leg up but looking at the chart below, we have already had an upward break of the UBB and the Williams %R indicator looks like it wants to head south.

So to me, even though that last declining pattern looks corrective, the completed 5 wave move up and the other indicators have me leaning towards a move to the downside at this stage.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 09:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good morning.

Hal ... welcome.

Rudy ... I know bigpond has had some problems. A lot of the charts I've sent you in the past couple of days didn't get through the gremlins.

More importantly ... you might also have missed an email from Andrew. He's back and sent some updates of his charts. If you didn't get them, you might want to contact him.

 
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