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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through September 20, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 20, 2010

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rash
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 10:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Morning again.

I find myself in the unenviable position of having to play the Devil's Advocate for the second time in a week.

We all need to make our own decisions, based on our own reading of conditions and the state of the oscillators.

In my reading of those I am seeing distinct signs of a potential Bullish breakout - whether it's a Bull trap, or not.

While much can be made of the divergence showing in short timeframe charts, I am NOT seeing a significant level of oscillator divergence in daily charts and I am seeing quite marked signs of positive divergence in weekly charts.

I hold a small Short position on the ASX200, but none on Pollyanna. There is some negative divergence building in Auntie's daily charts, but only faint signs of it in Auntie's weeklies.

I attach Pollyanna's weekly and daily with my standard oscillators.

application/msword1
1.doc (268.3 k)



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rash
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 11:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Taking a close look at Auntie, which appears to be weakening earlier than Pollyanna.

application/msword2
2.doc (254.0 k)







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rdumas
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 11:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

Actually I totally agree with what you are saying in your previous post. The indicators that you show help to ensure that we have the most accurate EW count possible. We have spoken often about anticipated move in the final thrust up of the last wave ending this rally leg. This is what is happening in my opinion. The short squeeze pop will almost ensure a larger than expected move but I believe it will be short lived.

The chart below is an update on the one I posted yesterday for the SPX. Now it is not necessary that we have the final thrust up for this final leg if we in fact had the top already in place but the pattern seems to suggest that we haven't seen it yet.

Now I have drawn a channel however if I wanted to be more accurate from an EW perspective I would have started the upper boundary trend line from the wave i top and projected it through the wave iii top. That would give it an expanding wedge shape and hence the opportunity for a large thrust up.




Either way, I do expect a thrust up in the pattern as the price action burns off the last bit of 'gas'.

This also fits in with what I see as a short term retracement coming up in the POG before it continues its march upward. As far as I'm concerned the SPX is in the final stages of forming Minor wave B and wave C is sure to follow.

I have spoken often about the frustrating nature of B waves and this one is no different from all others. As pointed out with my previous post 3997 there is mounting evidence that this rally is running out of steam.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 12:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Auntie's performance so far today is less than stellar - especially since the Pollyanna futures are currently sitting 10 cents under 1130.

As y'know, Rudy, I always find this a warning sign of what is going to happen in coming days. Auntie is not too easily fooled by the manipulative shenanigans of the GS Motherboard.


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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 12:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy/Randall

I tend to agree Rudy. If the top is already in, the count in wave iii (as shown on the attached chart) does not look as convincing as yours.

A failed 5th might occur on your count, but either way we are about there...

Randall did you question whether this pattern we have seen in the last week a 'Continuation' pattern and not simply a 'Reversal' pattern. Are you suggesting a bigger push north? - always a possibility I guess...

The low volume throughout this rally doesn't suggest the Bulls want to take this much higher than the overhead resistance, other than a brief 'pop'....but the VIX looks ready to fly so my guess is we have another 'wiggle' north (at best) before the reversal.




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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 12:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy

I forgot to add:



:-)


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rash
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 01:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi, Bill.

Yes, it is possible. There are some signals that a slow-grind rise similar to February-April might have started.

However, you also know my view about the interpretation of celestial events now unfolding. I find it hard to expect that markets will drop until next week ... I find it hard to expect that markets won't drop, starting next week.

I'm seeing nothing to alter my position ... a drop into October, followed by a significant rally. There is nothing in the oscillators to contradict that, at this stage. In fact, the improving internal conditions on weekly and monthly charts suggest it's quite probable.

We need to see a decline, and one is inevitable; we need to see the depth and strength; and what damage it inflicts on the oscillators.

I discussed ranges yesterday. If we take the entire 82-07 Bull range as the primary, we're a lot closer to the top of the range than the bottom ... if we're embarking on a grind higher here and now, without another retracement, it wouldn't be long before we were back in the region of the Tech Bubble and the 2007 Bubble.

Not even the Goldman Sachs computer can pull that one off!


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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 01:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Randall

With weak USA fundamentals, it is difficult to see a 'slow grind' north right at this moment....the volume was so poor in this rally, I'm amazed it got to the level it did...

Rudy's target for SPX Wave C was c. 950 - how does sit with the Astro Charts for an October low? Are Polly's Martians sitting around that level?

cheers mate

Bill


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rash
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 01:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oh, tsk*tsk

This is a serious room with rules about wave counts and techie tidbits!

I'll update the spooky stuff over in the fortune teller's tent at the weekend!


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rash
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 01:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Pollyanna futures at 1133.20. The Bull trap is underway.


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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 02:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Astro Boy

A few Cheeky Bulls to mop up before the dump!

...dont forget the 'Tea Leaves' in your spooky stuff...


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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 02:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Trading TZA & FAZ etc

I have had a few inquiries on how to purchase these x3 bear ETFs. www.direxionshares.com

I use CommSec International Trading Desk. It takes a week to open an Account. The Account is set up via CommSec with Pershing in USA.

You need to deposit $USD into the account before you trade.

The fees are very high - that's the downside. 0.8% per trade. These ETF's are turbo charged so if you time an entry & an exit well, there is plenty left over!

I haven't found another 'on line' service here in Australia other than CommSec/Pershing...if anyone knows one please let me know!


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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 02:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Well done on picking a great spot to enter GOLD.

Thanks for your EW Count - I have 'amended' it for a +usd$1500 target...wave v in commodities go ballistic....:-)





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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 03:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I forgot to add:

10 fundamental reasons to own gold

1. Gold remains ultimate form of payment - No counter party risk
2. Currency debasement - US Dollar losing status as world reserve currency
3. Gold crawling back into the monetary system
4. Negative real rates
5. Falling gold supply vs increased investment demand
6. Gold & Historic averages - gold should be trading above $2500 these days
7. DOW/GOLD ratio points to $5.000+ gold before 2015
8. Gold & US public debt - gold prices required to counter balance all US public debt held in foreign hands exceed the $10.000 mark
9. Large short positions - half of all central bank's gold has been leased into the market. (about 15.000 tons). Covering these short positions is not possible without catapulting gold prices to unimaginable highs.
10. Gold acting as safe haven in times of rising geopolitical tensions


Gold in $AUD has doubled in the last 5 years, the POG could easily quadruple in the next 5 years.....


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rdumas
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 04:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Don't forget that how big it is is not as important as how you use it.

By the way, does this pattern look familiar.

I'll give you a hint........support becomes resistance.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 04:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You kept asking me to buy BHP recently. This is the reason why I would not do that. I will possibly be able to pick it up $9 ~ $10 cheaper sometime in October.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 05:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...mate the only reason I wanted you to buy some, was to make this market reverse...it worked last time! :-)

I haven't looked at the BHP chart for a while. Wave iii will drop to c$32 I guess - so the bottom may be a bit lower still..is that your target?

XJO is doing the 'mini-me' of SPX.. Is your target for SPX still c.950 Rudy?


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p3t3
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Friday, September 17, 2010 - 06:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Friday, September 17, 2010 - 02:21 pm:

I haven't found another 'on line' service here in Australia other than CommSec/Pershing...if anyone knows one please let me know


Hello Bill

Interactive Brokers

Very low execution cost. Real time data, at exchange fees cost.


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market_mad
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Saturday, September 18, 2010 - 08:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The rise from late May has matched the near-term highs established in June and early August. The technical underpinnings of this push are deteriorating and optimism, by one measure, has reached a multi-year extreme. Our view remains that the next phase of selling pressure is near.





Wednesday night we discussed a piece of evidence showing the return of a strong level of speculative intensity to the market's rise as well as the third most overbought condition in Open 10 Trin in 7 years. These conditions are occurring as the stock market's rally shows clear signs of deceleration in its rate of ascent. The above chart updates the 5-day S&P 500 advance/decline ratio, a measure of market breadth that excludes non-operating companies such as bond funds, ADR's, etc… The 5-day a/d ratio made its most recent high on September 8 and then made a lower high on Tuesday, September 14. This same signature accompanied each of the previous two near-term market highs in late June and early August. The measure reflects a clear loss of upside momentum to the near-term push, which, while certainly not always fatal, does occur often prior to highs.




Wednesday we also discussed how the public has warmed to the market's rise since late August, with the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) of traders registering back-to-back days of 83% bulls on Wednesday and Thursday. Another measure of the public's optimism is the weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll. The above chart shows the plurality back through 2007. This week's net reading was a plus 26.6, which reflects the most optimistic extreme since May 2008, just prior to a peak that started a 54% decline to March 2009. The all-time high in October 2007 was accompanied by a positive plurality of 28.87%. As we noted Wednesday, context is key with all market indicators. If Primary wave 3 (circle) down did not start at the April high, which, as the chart shows, was at a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the decline from October 2007 to March 2009, then the current AAII reading may be meaningless. But, when combined with the other evidence that we've discussed this week, odds favor that stocks are at or near a trend reversal to the downside.

Also, next week will include a long held cycle date used for years by noted market expert Paul Macrae Montgomery to successfully forecast reversals in various markets that were showing extreme behavior proximate to the cycle. This year may shape up to be interesting. The precious metals are surging, with gold at a new all-time high, having closed up for 6 out of the past 7 weeks. Silver has closed sharply higher for four straight weeks, with spot prices making a new closing high but not a new intraday high. On Tuesday, silver's Daily Sentiment Index hit 93% bulls. The U.S. Dollar index is bouncing from an up-trend line (see chart below), with the Daily Sentiment Index having just dropped to 10% bulls. The euro's DSI rose to 86%, which is the same level as the August 6 wave (2) high even though prices remain three handles beneath this near-term extreme. Corn's DSI rose to 96% bulls for three consecutive days (Friday, Monday and Tuesday), as did Oats. The Yen's DSI pushed to 92% on Tuesday just prior to a BOJ intervention. The Swiss Franc's DSI rose to 95% bulls on Tuesday. And, sugar's DSI rallied to 98% bulls on the same day. As we noted above, the AAII bull-bear spread for U.S. equities is now at its most optimistic plurality in nearly 2½ years, when the DJIA was above 13,000. According to EWI's All-the-Same-Market scenario, each of this disparate asset classes is trending more or less together based on the expanding and contracting liquidity provided by credit inflation and deflation. If these positive correlations continue and/or strengthen, a turn in one or more of the markets just listed may mean a turn in all markets. That's certainly a tall order to expect, but it's a potential in which we are attuned. The last time there was such widespread optimism in various markets was in December-January. The January 19 stock high started the topping process as it marked the left shoulder of the head-and-shoulders pattern that we first discussed in the August issue of EWFF (see p.2).






Stocks opened strong today, but the intraday high was made right at the open. The Dow and S&P spent the rest of the session moving sideways before finally closing the day on the upside. So today's close amounted to a new closing high for the rise from the late August lows even though prices never exceeded this morning's opening intraday high. This morning's Dow push carried to 10,650, filling the open gap at 10,644 from August 10. There are no more gaps. At this morning's high, the index had retraced 91% of wave i (circle) down. The secondary indexes such as the Value Line and Small Caps as well as the Dow Transports, did not confirm today's early push. Both the Value Line and Transports made their highs for this week on Tuesday, while the S&P Small Cap index made its high on Wednesday of this week. A larger inter-market divergence may be developing between the DJIA, which, so far, remains beneath its August 9 high, and the S&P, which made a new intraday high above its August 9 high, but not a new closing high. In sum, there are multiple non-confirmations among various indexes, which is oftentimes occurs at turning points. Previously, we've cited the old market saw that a fractured market is an unhealthy market. With the other pieces of the market puzzle coming together — extreme optimism, waning upside momentum and lagging breadth — we are seeing a picture develop of a tiring rise that has, despite a 3½ month rally attempt from late May, simply matched its June-August highs. Our stance remains that the next big and protracted market move will be down.


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billt
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Saturday, September 18, 2010 - 03:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

Thank you for the MW - a huge effort again, much appreciated. Pass on my thanks to the 4m'ers as well...

My thoughts are on the SPX...(XJO could go down another path....)

I assume Scenario 2 (the preference of the now referred '3 Amigoes') preferred EW path, takes as perhaps back down a red wave ii before the push up in a red wave iii, all within a red wave (iii). Is that the idea? Something like this?




I am scratching my head on that one Rudy....

What doesn't fit into that 'mould' - to me - is the horrendous USA economic fundamentals that currently exit. Sure some indicators have flat lined after there initial fall in April/May 2010, but with GDP @ 1.6% and falling and Unemployment @ 9.6% and rising, and many Economic Guru's still suggesting a 40% chance of a Double Dip and the remainder suggesting 'enemic' growth at best, with QE2 being about to be rolled out, and with the Obama Government and the Fed rudderless - other than an ability to keep printing $1.4 trillion 'magic money' a year, I find to hard to see a 'multi month rally' of wave iii of (iii) intensity could be ready for launch!

As I have said recently, the problem right this minute for the USA is:

GDP is falling,
National Debt rising & will accelerate due to QE2
Deficit rising & will accelerate due to QE2
Unemployment is rising
Real Personal Income if falling
Real Personal Spending is slowing
Housing Starts sharply falling
Homes Sales sharply down
Building Permits sharply down
Auto Sales 28 year low
Real non-residential flat
Non Defense Shipments falling
ISM Services falling
Chicago PMI falling sharply
Food Stamp Recipients rising
300 banks bust, many more to come

The US Consumer has decided not to buy a new house, a new car, is worried about his job, has falling real income, knows many unemployed, worries what bank to put their savings in, sees 41 million around him on Food Stamps, and is not spending.

How Wall Street gets overtly bullish is difficult to see. This last rally was the weakest of all time in respect to volume, so it doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence on a prolonged wave (iii) rally in a matter of a few days.

Do we just pretend the USA is not in an economic mess?

Scenario 1 at least gives us another month to get something positive out of the USA Economic mindfield to give support to a sustained rally....

From a TA point of view, we have multi month Triple Top reversal pattern, massive Head & Shoulders reversal patterns going back 8 months, and bearish inverted MAs on the SPX Daily....even after this rally.

The next few days will tell us, and we all know that the Market does weird things at times, but normally it returns back to economic reality and not Disneyland...

Bill


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rdumas
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Saturday, September 18, 2010 - 04:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The additions to my chart that you have drawn is the correct general idea for that scenario.

The rest of your post where you provide the fundamentals that argue against a rally is based on the false premise that the market follows what happens in the real economy. That fact is that it doesn't do that much of the time.

At any point in time there is a lot of bad news and good news. The market moves and the pundits then take which ever news explains the direction that the market went on the day. So if it goes up then they focus on the good news and if it goes down then they focus on the bad news. That's the way the game is played. Sometimes it does the exact opposite to what was expected and at those times they just scratch their heads. Welcome to the insane world of the share market. That's why we do technical analysis because at least it attempts to look at the actual 'thing' (market mood or whatever) that the price action reflects.

Of course the fundamentals will have their effect because even insane people get moments of lucidity. In the main however, people do what they 'feel' rather than what they 'logically think'.

Have you ever noticed that no two people react exactly the same way to the same experience? There is a whole range of reactions depending on the different disfunctional habits they've picked up during their lives to the present day. That's what we attempt to measure when we do technical analysis. Fortunately we get to see the 'mean' insanity present in the market in the price action. If we were to make an attempt to analyse every individual investor's hang ups we would end up giving up because it would become just too complicated.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, September 18, 2010 - 04:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi again Rudy

In my mind I find it difficult to see a significant high above the current levels until GDP & Unemployment in the US improves.

I see more of a sideways moving Market, without a significant high or low for sometime to come.

The trading range might extend beyond the current 1010 to 1130 range depending on economic fundamentals.

If Roubini's '40% chance of a DD recession' occur I could see the market going south quickly and potentially heading back to March 09 lows.

If, by some economic miracle, US GDP & Unemployment improve we could head back up to April 10 highs.

But if neither happens, we could be stuck in a trading range for quite some time....and to me, that's the favorite.

....Some sort of enormous EW 'Expanded Flat'!


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billt
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Saturday, September 18, 2010 - 04:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Seven articles fresh off the USA press, I am wondering how Wall Street this weekend is taking them?

I am backing your Scenario 1 Rudy...

1. Consumer sentiment weakest since August 2009

“Consumer sentiment unexpectedly worsened in early September to its weakest level in more than a year, as distress over jobs and finances intensified among upper-income families, a survey released on Friday showed.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary September reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 66.6, down from 68.9 in August.”

2. U.S. core CPI flat, deflation fears linger

“Underlying U.S. inflation pressures were muted in August and consumer morale hit a 13-month low this month, keeping fears of deflation alive and spurring bets on further monetary easing.”

3. About 44 million in U.S. lived below poverty line in 2009

“In the second year of a brutal recession, the ranks of the American poor soared to their highest level in half a century and millions more are barely avoiding falling below the poverty line, the Census Bureau reported Thursday.”

4. Are poll workers being used to inflate employment totals?

"Workers at polling places for today's primary and November's general election are being required to file tax withholding forms for the first time ever in a move that could be aimed at inflating the nation's employment numbers. Is this really a little Election Eve trick? Here's what I learned, you decide. The New York City Board of Elections, which uses 30,000 to 36,000 temporary workers for both the primary and general election, said it is being ordered by the Internal Revenue Service to make "employees" out of the very temporary workers who tend the polling sites. "

5. Philly Fed report still in negative territory

“Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region contracted in September for a second straight month, according to a report released Thursday.”

6. Rosenberg: Small Business Spending Plans Spell Doom In The Next Year

“The National Federation of Independent Business’s (NFIB) capital spending intentions index dipped to 16 in August from 18 in July and is now down three straight months after peaking out at the beginning of the year.”

7. Roubini Says Fed Policy Easing Will Be `Too Little, Too Late'

“Federal Reserve policy makers are unlikely to take steps toward further monetary easing at a meeting next week and may wait until November, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are divided over whether to renew large-scale asset purchases, a strategy known as quantitative easing, Roubini said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
“Eventually they’re going to get to QE but it’s going to be probably too little and too late.”


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rdumas
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Saturday, September 18, 2010 - 04:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Well, we may see something this week even. Some amazing high volumes occurred in the US, UK and German markets which in previous times indicated a major turning point. The UK and German candles and volumes look particularly interesting.

As you can see a turning point doesn't particularly have to be a bad one.......but it can be.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, September 18, 2010 - 05:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re your BHP question asked earlier. If we get a scenario 1 in the XJO then BHP will probabl drop over $9 from the current price level. Now that would be a nice price to buy at.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, September 18, 2010 - 05:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...stampeding to the exits more likely Rudy - look at those bearish candles!

Rud'meister your quote: '..false premise that the market follows what happens in the real economy'

I would suggest the SPX turns 3 months after the GDP...best indicator of all!




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ken
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Saturday, September 18, 2010 - 10:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

The high volume days are derivative expiries, aren't they?

But I guess that doesn't stop them from slowing or stopping the trend.


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rdumas
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Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 07:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

Well, Friday was certainly a derivative expiry day but none the less they tend to happen on a turn date. Not really sure why. Perhaps Pete has some idea about why. I have no doubt that there will be some reasonable explanation.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 10:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Further to my post 4016 relating to the AUD which was in response to your earlier post on the ODB thread relating to it and its impact on the ETF GOLD stock that a few of us on this thread currently hold.

I have had a closer look at the AUD both short term and long term and do totally agree with your conclusion that attempting to use pure EW counts on it does not lead to any sense of confidence about future market action. AUD for some reason appears to be in a continual state of corrective patterns. As you have said to me many times in the past, when applied to the AUD, the best that we can achieve is using Elliott Wave personalities to decipher the short term trading opportunities available.

Your recent call about the recent pattern having a 'corrective' personality was spot on as it led to another impulse wave up. It is currently retracing from that recent advance now.

As ETF GOLD holders would be keen to see the AUD dropping in the near future I thought that in spite of the difficulty in getting an EW count for the AUD it was worth it to at least to take a stab at it.

The chart below provides my attempt at providing an EW count for the rally that started back on the 20th May 2010. Now if my EW count is correct, then the last leg that started on the 25th August cannot be the completion of the larger pattern. The reason for this is that this leg is impulsive and what is required in this type of larger pattern is a 3 wave move.

That implies that a retracement of minor degree is due in the short term before another rally leg takes the pattern up to completion.





What is interesting to analyse is the 1 year chart below. We can see that it as been trading in a band depicted by my upper/centre/lower bands. The May rally has been trending in a channel (blue lines) and the current price action has taken the AUD to the upper band where it is currently meeting strong resistance.

The two Williams %R indicators appear to be indicating a breather in the price action at this stage and it will be very interesting to see just how far down the retracement will take the price action. Could it be of similar range to the previous a or circle b wave?

The really big test will be to see if my EW count is correct and the upper boundary is breached in order to achieve the completion of the pattern.

The other thing that needs to be considered if the latter occurs is that the AUD and XJO tend to move in tandem. Also any upward movement in the AUD would obviously have dramatic effects on our ETF GOLD stock.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

You asked a few days ago at what level Minor wave C would terminate. Based on wave equality and the EW count that I provided for scenario 1 for the S&P500 that level would be around the 952 level.

However if scenario 2 plays out then we would bottom out in the next decline anywhere above the 1039.69 level. The more I look at the various indicators, the more I start to lean towards the view of the other 3 amigos. Hopefully next week will give us more of a clue.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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p3t3
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Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 03:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 07:18 am:

Well, Friday was certainly a derivative expiry day but none the less they tend to happen on a turn date. Not really sure why. Perhaps Pete has some idea about why.


Volume spikes are the norm for quarterly derivatives expiry.

Much of it is from Bank and Broker-Dealer prop desks squaring their books which had been structured to balance out market-maker-activity exposure accumulated during the quarter. Usually the desks want to go into the next quarter flat, but if the quarter has hosted a significant directional move they could carry positional overhang into the next quarter. If (for instance) they'd been using options positions to hedge equity purchases - to absorb a significant sell-off - the realised gains would allow disposal of the equities. That disposal could well be market-moving so there might be significant selling of next-quarter index futures in advance. Eventually a sell-equities/buy-index-futures trade could be made that was more-or-less market neutral.

The "less" part being that the sudden change from selling futures to their re-purchase is likely to attract attention and can prompt a momentum change. The squaring of positions alone can cause a substantial shift in momentum, which then attracts the attention of momentum followers and can become self-reinforcing. Once a move is underway there is a huge incentive for Mutual Funds to get on board to avoid index under-performance.

Nobody knows the outcome in advance, so the entities with near zero execution cost could be doing short-term trades in both directions as the price action unfolds. That only adds to the volume.

For anybody looking for a simple explanation I'm sure there are any number of works of fiction to address that desire. The real world is much more inclined to be complex and messy.


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rdumas
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Weekend Market Wrap List

Hi Folks,

Unfortunately due to a problem with my Outlook Express software my mailing list for the Weekend Market Wrap has disappeared into the ethers. Would you please email me privately to get back on it.

Sorry about the inconvenience.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 04:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Market Wrap List

Further to my last post. I believe that I will have recovered most of the list. I will send an email to those I have on the list in the next 5 minutes. If you don't receive it and want it then let me know. If you do receive it then don't worry about emailing me.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 04:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete,

Thanks for that explanation. Much appreciated.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I think that this little snippet will interest you. It is a snippet taken from the Safe Haven Technical market Report for the 18th September. The link is as follows:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18237/technical-market-report-for-september-18-2010






The article gives the positives and negatives for the market for the last 6 months. Obviously the above chart was one of the negatives. His conclusion at the end of his article is as follows:

Conclusion

The market is overbought going into a week that seasonally has been very weak.

I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday September 24 than they were on Friday September 17.


Randall's "spooky stuff" indicates the same so our ETF GOLD and your US shorting stocks could make a packet for you this week.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 05:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Thanks for your thoughts on targets.

I intend to 'swing' trade from now, so I will be bailing out at the 1040 level for my shorts and GOLD and following the trend. I'm not 'punting' against the 4M'ers!!

You may have noticed the posts between Ody and me over the weekend on ODB.

In the interests of an 'Alternative EW' scenario which perhaps respects the current US GDP outlook, I offer another EW idea....

Based upon the premise that SPX will generally follow the GDP chart and not fight against it, and assuming US GDP will continue to fall below the current 1.6% to 1.0% in the coming four quarters (as most economists are predicting - some more pessimistic), I submit the following EW Scenario - for what its worth.

I must say it is 'unique' as I have not seen it elsewhere....it puts us on the brink of a wave iii down, so it is 'prechter' like in that sense..

The Scenario assumes we are in SuperCycle Wave IV, with the 2007/08 collapse marking its top. The March 09/April 10 rally was an A/B move, and we are currently within a Wave C move which should terminate at a time when US GDP finally turns north! This scenario assumes an eventual 'Happy Ever After' end game, rather than the 'Road to Hell' of the Prechter type outcome.

It runs against Andrew's Cycle Analysis (I assume) as it potentially creates a bottom early/mid 2011 and not a top? Astro Boy's Martians seem to be happy at the moment, so it doesn't sit well with the spooky side...I assume?

Does it have EW 'validity' Rudy?? Clean up the labelling mate...

I would give a completed impulsive wave A and potentially an impulsive wave C, with a series of completed a/b corrective moves up Wave B...?




This predictive SPX forecast is from USA's 'The Financial Forecast Center' based upon a modest slowing of USA GDP in the next 12 months....if USA GDP goes negative, the decline will be steeper and deeper!!

bill


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billt
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Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 05:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy for the SafeHaven stuff - impressive guys there on that site.

I don't feel I would want to hold GOLD if the stock markets rally - the $AUD could go to parity in a SPX multi-month event, so at the bottom of this correction I intend to bail. POG might hesitate if a multi month SPX rally runs away too...

I will limit my fun to TZA and its big bullish thug of a brother TNA to do the dirty work. Swing trading according to the availing trend....but I will be bailing out on the long side at the first sign of negativity.

As you can appreciate I can see a very good bearish case on FA principles, so early in and early out will be the strategy.

cheers Rudy

Bill


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billt
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Sunday, September 19, 2010 - 09:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi again Rudy

I guess my EW Count idea could extend into a Triangle Scenario....

The difference is between your Count is simply whether B has completed or not...




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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Both of those EW counts are valid in principle. I believe that Andrew and Randall don't think that the index will fall back any further than the July level until we reach a new market high sometime early next year so I suspect that they would not agree with your counts. I agree with them about the new market high in early next year but am not yet sure whether we have seen the low of the current correction even though I slightly lean towards their view at the moment.

One of the things that you can see coming out of this is that numerous EW counts are possible and long term forecasting tends to be pretty academic because at any stage the next bit of revealed price action will invalidate many of the EW counts. I tend to feel that to attempt to predict more than a few months ahead is extremely difficult and therefore I agree that your intention to carry out swing trading is the way to go.

I share your negativity about the fundamentals and can't see things getting back to 'normal' for a few years however the market does tend at times toward periods of insane exuberance that can last for months so in my view they are moments to take advantage of.

The last delusionary rally went for 14 months. Now some would suggest that this was because things were getting better but I believe it was purely a case of perception. The perception was that things were getting better but the fact that the "getting better" was on the basis of going deeper into debt at a global level seemed to entirely escape investors' minds.

That is what I meant about my comment about the false perception of market action being based on real fundamentals. Maybe it is based on some of the fundamentals but it certainly doesn't take into account all fundamentals. You may find the following article of interest.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/crisis-explained-one-chart-debt-gdp/11570

Now I should note that this article was written in January 2009 but to the best of my knowledge, the US debt has increased (not decreased) in that time. Check out the following graph.




The interesting comments accompanying the above graph were the following:

"What does this chart tell me? It says that what each of us knows to be “just how the economy works” is really a historically unusual experiment with debt that is barely 25 years old. In the sweep of economic history, this barely qualifies as a blink.

It says, if you listen carefully enough, that all of our global economic growth has been fictitious. An illusion of debt.

Consider that debt had most recently been growing at a rate six times faster than the underlying GDP and you’ll begin to appreciate just how bogus the recent “growth” really was.

Here's an example. Consider two families living side by side. Each is earning $50,000/year. At our first “GDP snapshot” of these two families, we find that each has a GDP of $50k. But the next year one of the families goes out and buys an additional $50k of goods and services for itself, using a combination of auto loans, credit cards, student loans, and a home equity line of credit (HELOC).

At our second “GDP snapshot” one family is still mired in a $50k GDP but the other has undergone an exciting 100% growth in their economy and is now sporting a GDP of $100k.

But the underlying reality is that each family still has $50k of earning power. The measurement itself introduced a fallacy by neglecting to factor out the use of credit when measuring “growth.” That is exactly analogous to the US GDP situation and explains why the US, and much of the world, is now in for a very painful adjustment process.

Debt-to-GDP for family #2 assures that they will be living under the strain of paying down those loans for years to come. Time spent living beyond one’s means necessitates a future period of living below one’s means.

And this is why “unlocking the credit markets” is pure fiction.

Nothing needs to be unlocked. What we need is to recognize the vast damage that we did to ourselves as we elevated and then clung to a set of falsehoods.

The interesting part, as is always true of every bubble, is looking back and wondering how it is that we ever believed these falsehoods. "


This is the point I continue to make about share market price action. The share market in no way represents the state of the real economy. The share market can go up during extremely bad times. It is our role as investors to 'trade the market' not 'trade the real economy'.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, September 20, 2010 - 09:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy

You should warn people about the charts you intend to post Rudy - that last one could easily have frighten those with any heart complaint!

I tend to agree that to attempt to predict more than a few months ahead is extremely difficult - I would shorten that to a few weeks....

The focus for me, is to use EW analysis to give a guide on the possible very short term view of the market and the wave count within each rally/correction. As you have said before, what investment decisions you have to make in the next two week are the most important.

cheers

bill


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Yep. The EW stuff is very useful especially on the short term stuff where you are only looking at one pattern in your trading timeframe at a time.

The other useful idea is to do what Dolphin does, that is use wave personalities to determine where you are in a short term time frame. A perfect example is what he did on the AUD last week. The AUD on a daily chart had made a perfect 5 wave move up and hence we would expected the start of an impulse wave down. What we saw instead was a move down in a typical corrective pattern. That told him that there was a strong possibility that a move up would follow. This is exactly what happened.

One wave at a time mate and you won't go too far wrong.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, September 20, 2010 - 11:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Opening XJO Price Action

We closed the gap on the first move.





Note the gap requiring closing near that projected level.

(Message edited by rdumas on September 20, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Monday, September 20, 2010 - 11:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



E-Dubya Dudes ...

I concur with Rudy. This morning's action has caused considerable damage to technical indicators.

application/msword1
1.doc (364.0 k)



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rdumas
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Thanks for the confirmation Randall. So far the XJO has closed the first gap and retraced to the 23.6% Fib level of the move down. It would be very bearish if it moved down from here. Even if it tried to close the second gap it would still be quite bearish.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, September 20, 2010 - 12:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO PRICE ACTION

It's obviously early days yet but we can see from the chart below that the old up trend is broken and a new short term trend is forming. The time this has been underway indicates that the current move is at a higher level than the majority of previous retracements of the rally that started on the 25th August.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, September 20, 2010 - 02:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just back from installing a 50 inch flat panel so I can see these 'red numbers' better...

This man Bull - he now Sitting...


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rdumas
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ETF GOLD

Hi Bill,

Unless I'm mistreading this it looks like we are close to another leg up in ETF GOLD.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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XJO PRICE ACTION BY 2:40PM

If we are heading for a 50% Fib retrace of the down move the XJO should be very close to completing its wave (ii) retrace of the down move.


Following is a possible EW count assuming that we are forming an impulse wave down. Whether that impulse is the final leg in a Zigzag or the third leg in a larger impulse wave remains to be seen.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, September 20, 2010 - 03:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

It could be a golden window for GOLD in the next few days.

POG is seeing a bit of a rally in the last few hours, and the $AUD should soften a piece as the XJO comes through this correction.

The whole commodity sector is seeing a push north at the moment:








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rdumas
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Monday, September 20, 2010 - 03:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What a difference an hour makes

Wow. I think we can forget about that last EW count. Looking at the following chart it looks like we may get a reasonable sort of a bounce in the near future on the XJO.

Just look at that support at 4600!!





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
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Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 29, 2010ehmu50 29-Nov-10  03:36 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 24, 2010rdumas50 24-Nov-10  07:36 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 15, 2010eagle50 15-Nov-10  06:57 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 09, 2010rdumas50 09-Nov-10  10:47 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 31, 2010billt50 31-Oct-10  11:58 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 26, 2010skyhawk50 26-Oct-10  07:51 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 21, 2010billt50 21-Oct-10  05:41 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 15, 2010billt50 15-Oct-10  11:42 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 11, 2010skyhawk50 11-Oct-10  08:13 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 06, 2010rdumas50 06-Oct-10  02:09 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 03, 2010skyhawk50 03-Oct-10  01:59 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 30, 2010billt50 30-Sep-10  02:12 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 23, 2010rdumas50 23-Sep-10  01:29 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 17, 2010rash50 17-Sep-10  09:55 am

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