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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through September 30, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 30, 2010

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billt
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Thursday, September 23, 2010 - 01:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Re my earlier EW chart, at the SPX 3 minute chart level I was excluding 'the tails', as the 'red count' had done...(but I'd need magnifying glasses to tell). The diagonal is in a wave 1 of iii..not the entire wave iii.

Tonight will tell us the answer!

SPX BB which looks promising:




Finish that tax off Rudy...you have been at it for weeks.


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market_mad
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Thursday, September 23, 2010 - 02:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

Came across this website which is excellent! You can sign up for their newsletter and they give you free updates - www.breakpointtrades.com - I've been on this for a few weeks now and highly recommend it. It is US based (not so much on the EW stuff) but certainly worthy of a look as they look at heaps of different market indicators.

Anyway, thought you guys - Bill in particular, may be interested in it.

Cheers
MM

PS What a yawn on our market today - given most of Asia is closed, it's not suprising really...

(Message edited by market_mad on September 23, 2010)







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billt
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Thursday, September 23, 2010 - 04:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks MM for that - there certainly is not a shortage of guys in the US setting up financial websites to share their knowledge for a fee! Thanks for link.

I guess XJO is sitting on the fence waiting to see what SPX decides to do tonight...

Largest 3 day continuous volume buying spree on TZA (x3 inverse RUT ETF) this week in many, many months...big $$ being positioned for a cull.

POG continues it's march north - lots of clear white candles along the path. MAs now in a military parallel bullish alignment heading north...MA50 covering the bottom pitchfork, and MA20 very occasionally required to provide support...It could easily be in a wave iii of 3 event, with a trip to the overhead pitchforks the destination? The upper level of the 18 month trendline is well above at a target at c$1500...




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rdumas
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Friday, September 24, 2010 - 08:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POSSIBLE S&P500 SCENARIOS

Continuing on with the two scenarios for the S&P500 that I mentioned in last week's market wrap. The following charts show the progress of these scenarios as I see it currently.

Scenario 1 is the more bearish of the two which anticipates a larger move down in the index. In this scenario we have possibly completed Minor wave B and have just started Minor wave C which could take the index down to around the 970 level (based on the recent high of 1148.59.




Scenario 2 which is my favoured scenario at this point in time is that we commenced a multi-month rally and have possibly just completed Subminuette wave i and are currently forming Subminuette wave ii. To remain valid, this retracement cannot drop below 1039.69.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, September 24, 2010 - 01:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

I understand that your Bearish Scenario 1 target of 970 comes off the equal wave length from 1219 to 1040, and the recent high of 1148.59.

I assume your more Bullish Scenario 2 could see a possible c.67 point ‘Fib 618’ retrace on SPX to 1081.30 level – an area of recent support/resistance, and a ‘Martian area’ of interest. On a counter rally wave ii I guess that would be a possible target, and of course 38% or 50% targets as we head south?

There seems to another ABC type target at 939.7, which assumes a wave A termination at the 1010 low. 1148.59 – 208.59 = 939.7.

In terms of the Prechter type targets (they are all getting very excited!), but I would assume an initial target for their wave iii to the 802 to 810 level, arrived at from a full 100% extension from the end of wave i, 1010.91 – 208.89 = 802.02 or a 1.618x wave i length from the recent wave ii high, 1148.59 - (208.89 x 1.618 = 337.98) = 810.60.

Scenario 2 @ 1080? (any level above 1040)
Scenario 1 @ 970
Alternative ABC @ 940
Prechter wave iii @ 802/810

Is that about the sum of it? That's an SPX range between 6% and 42% off the recent high...it will make a fascinating next few weeks!

bill


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rdumas
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Friday, September 24, 2010 - 08:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You've covered all of the bases mate. Now we'll see what sort of a show they put on for us tonight.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, September 25, 2010 - 07:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Impressive wave 2!




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rdumas
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Saturday, September 25, 2010 - 08:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Enjoy yourself at Randwick today matey. There will be plenty of sights to please the eye I'm sure.

I doubt very much that we have a double top in play but it sholdn't be too long as all of the indicators are severely stretched. To get wave equality for the current rally leg with the one that commenced on the 1st July we would get a top at 1158.02.

Barry our Fib guru reckons that the next Fib level is 1156.61 with the next one at 1163.07 so take your pick.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, September 25, 2010 - 09:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy

I'm sure there will plenty of 'Double Tops' at Ladies Day to keep me amused! 27 degrees & sunny, should bring them all out!

I'll keep plugging away with my ETF's & short stops - eventually it will hit..

cheers mate, enjoy the sunshine

bill


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paint
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Sunday, September 26, 2010 - 10:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill - driving passed Centennial Park yesterday around 6 - plenty of double-tops


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rdumas
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 08:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Are the Mutual Funds Right or Wrong?

http://pragcap.com/mutual-funds-are-all-in


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 08:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ETF GOLD

This should be interesting. There is every likelihood that the POG is getting near a level where a retrace is due. Those who hold ETF GOLD will also be closely following the AUD.

AUD is now getting very close to wave equality which has the highest probability of a turning point as well. With a wave equality target of $0.9676 at time of writing this post the AUD is sitting at $0.96064.



The fortunes of ETF GOLD holders may be determined by index which falls the fastest.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 11:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey guys,

Latest from EW;

The right side of this long topping process has kept optimism elevated. It is evident in various measures of investor sentiment, including an all-time record low in the percentage of mutual fund cash to assets. We will discuss this latter measure in next Friday's new issue of EWFF. Near term, the conditions remain strong for a trend reversal in various markets.


The odds are extremely high that the U.S. Dollar/Euro currency is at or very close to a short-to-intermediate-term trend reversal. Optimism toward silver's future prospects has shot up to a level that has coincided with previous turns, so investors should be on high alert for a reversal here too. Gold is unlikely to keep rising in a material manner if silver reverses, and stocks show a very mature rally pattern, with some potential noteworthy non-confirmations. The conditions remain strong for a nearly across-the-board turn.




Yesterday's 1122.79 S&P low marked the end of a small fourth-wave correction. Today's jump is a fifth wave, the final wave within the entire Wave 2 upward push. Despite a very strong stock market open, the S&P only managed to eke out a rise above Tuesday's 1148.59 high by mere ticks (1148.90), lagging badly the Dow's fifth-wave rise. So far, the Dow Transports and S&P 600 Small Caps have failed to confirm the rise. The S&P 500 remains at the bottom end of the 1148-1158 stopping range, which we've described in the previous two Updates. Prices could push toward the upper end of the range prior to complete the rally, but it is not required. With wave 2 retracing a Fibonacci .60 (3/5) of wave 1 down, with prices at the same level as the January 19 high (1150.45), with stock optimism elevated and at significant extremes in other markets, it appears that rally is close to ending (finally).




If there is any residual strength early next week, the DJIA is likely to carry another 60-80 points, to 10,920-10,940, the bottom of which is wave iv (circle) of 1 down.

The stock market's strong open occurred with NYSE a/d's at better than 10:1 positive. By the close, the a/d ratio had contracted to a 4.59:1 positive ratio. It is a still a solid final tally, but it is less than the 6.14:1 ratio of September 1, which is consistent with the interpretation that today's rise is a fifth wave. Fifth waves in stocks are almost always weaker than third or first waves. Since the week ended up by 2% or higher in all three major stock indexes, both the 2- and 4-day rates of change turned up too. But if stocks rollover from near today's highs, both rates of change should rollover too, from lower highs.




The NASDAQ carried above the upper channel line today and pushed to 2381, within the 277-2394 resistance range. Today's high was two points shy of an exact Fibonacci .618 retracement of wave 1. Yesterday's low was the bottom of a small fourth wave, and today's rise is a fifth wave. The open gap at 2394.30 is just above today's close and any follow-through up open on Monday would fill this gap. The top of wave iv (circle) of 1 is 2434 and the .786 retracement of wave 1 is 2450. These levels should represent the maximum upward retracement. The 85% NASDAQ bulls, as measured by the Daily Sentiment Index of traders (trade-futures.com), is the most optimistic extreme since April 15 (90% bulls), 6˝ days prior to the Primary wave 2 (circle) top on April 26. The current sentiment readings are far more consistent with a rally that is ending rather than one that is in mid-stream and certainly not one that is starting.


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rdumas
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 11:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Thanks for that update. The next month or should tell us whether they are correct or the EW count that the 4M's have is correct. If we are correct then the anticipated decline will be of a reasonably short duration (1~2 weeks) before continuing on in an upward trend.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 12:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500, USD and POG


I find the following site a worth while read at the beginning of each week.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18332/sp500-internals-dollar-and-gold-pre-week- analysis

It pretty well confirms my own thoughts at this stage.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 01:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POSSIBLE BPT BREAKOUT?

I will be watching this stock carefully in the near term future.




This count appears to be supported by the following chart technicals as support appears to be coming from the MBB and 50 day SMA coupled with the rising W%R indicator.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 02:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Maybe you should have 'ventured' over to the ASX Short-Term Thread and entered BPT in the Weekly Comp'n....just for the fun of it!

Anyway, to support your views above I looked at a Weekly Chart and see that BPT has had two 'False-Breakouts' from its perceived "Value Area"(trading range...67.5c-92.5c) in the last 10 month, the last one merely a few weeks ago. Typically, the first one( breakout above range in Jan.2010) resulted in a move down to the other extreme once it retraced back into the "Value Area(V.A.)". Present action now 'back within the range' is suggesting/favouring a move back to test the upper boundary of the V.A. or even higher.

Weekly Williams%R's(3 and 14) are in sync with the daily's, i.e. at extremes or turning up. However, I guess we need to see her break resistances in the low 70's first before any real buying conviction comes in. Resistances include the 3 M.A.s, the downtrend line and the W.%R14wkly although I see the latter breaking out because of the daily and fast wkly Williams%R's.





Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. Having mentioned the "Weekly Comp'n" to you Rudy may be some of the other ODB and E.W''ers ...Eugenio, M/M, Paint, p3t3, Rash, Ody, Ken and co... may like to join in. How abt it guys, only takes a few mins or so to explain why you think a stock will rise over the week or indeed the next few weeks if you wish to hold!


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rdumas
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 03:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Thanks for your thoughts re BPT. I did think about putting it into the short term trading section but thought that it was a good example of applying EW to a lesser known stock.

The downside of putting it onto the EWW thread is that it will get lost in the number of posts and hence not easily retrieved. The advantage is that it can be used as an EW example.

Unfortunately there are a handful of EW agro's that really make it unpleasant to post outside of this thread so I don't think that it's worth the aggravation. I don't like having to deal with bigots that don't have enough maturity to allow a variety of ideas to be expressed without getting caught up in slanging matches. It simply isn't worth it.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paint
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 05:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin - sounds great. I'm away at the moment, so give me a week or so to come up with a reasonable idea.

Cheers


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p3t3
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 06:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




gdd3 wrote on Monday, September 27, 2010 - 02:17 pm:

Having mentioned the "Weekly Comp'n" to you Rudy may be some of the other ODB and E.W''ers ...Eugenio, M/M, Paint, p3t3, Rash, Ody, Ken and co...


Thanks for the invitation Dolphin....

...I have great respect for the quality of the posts there, but what puts me off most is the time-frame. For me a week is about long enough to weigh an entry or an exit, not both, and three months is the very short term.

Take an example I at least know a very little about. On August 2nd THX announced its high grade copper discovery at Red Bore. The price spiked to as high as 1.035 over the next five days but has since fallen back to 0.74, having been as low as 0.685. The Red Bore deposit is still in early stage exploration, only 1% of the site and to a depth of 100 metres. Sandfire's DeGrussa, Conductor1, Conductor4 and Conductor5 deposits are within line-of-sight of the Red Bore deposit, though Conductor5 is at 500m and the other deposits are at similar depth.

Over the longer term (think years) there are at least two ways to gain from THX. Firstly the deposit could prove extensive enough to support a stand-alone project, with processing done at low cost through Sandfire's nearby facilities. Secondly the deposits are close enough together and rich enough to justify the purchase of both by a larger third party. Oz Minerals has 19% of Sandfire. And lots of cash in the bank.

Neither of those possibilities is likely to play out within the time-frame of the Weekly Comp. Though speculation on either could certainly do so. I would have little confidence in trying to pick the timing of when such a speculative burst might occur.

Just my view
Pete


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gdd3
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 07:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Rudy, Paint and Pete...

I assume you are aware that I was referring to an invitation to participate in the Stock Picking Competition found in the:-

"Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA)" TOPIC under the "2010...Sept Equinox to Dec Solstice Challenge" THREAD.

Whilst it is primarily a Weekly Competition it is also a Quarterly Competition so participants have a choice whether to close their existing weekly pick on or B4 the market close on Friday or they can also continue with the same stock pick for the next week or the whole 13weeks if they wished.

The only stipulation to participate is to post a chart with a short explanation of why you picked it(for education sharing purposes)as its in the strictly T/A part of the forum. However, even though it is set-up in the "T/A" only part of the IC Forum, F/A reasons for one's pick are welcome and is often used(D'jaded for example). Now, Rudy, the E.W.T., at my last understanding, is a form of T/A so no problems with 'E.W. flack' over there. Similarly, I've had no 'flack' in that thread even though some people are uncomfortable with my favoured TAZ approach as a short-term trading style.

Its all in the name of 'fun' but can also be 'moral' boosting, educational and/or a chance to home in on your own form of trading style or others.

Hope we see you over there with a 'stock pick' next week.

Cheers
Dolphin}


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billt
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 09:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

I watch the US Financials (RIFIN) as an early warning canary for the US markets. It also is the index for FAZ & FAS...

It was interesting to note on Friday's close that it failed to reach the previous high and has a more convincing 50/61% fib, i/ii in play at this point. MA50 still under the MA200 despite the 18 trading day rally.... Volume still weak on Fridays action...




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rdumas
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Monday, September 27, 2010 - 10:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Looks like a possible bear flag to me matey.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - 12:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



the chartpatterntrader did a little webcast on rifin on the weekend, called it a bear flag also, and theorized that the russel financials would lead the markets down.

http://thechartpatterntrader.com/



_____ n a m a s t e

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billt
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - 07:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys,

FAZ, the x3 inverse bear ETF of RIFIN, has set up an interesting chart. FAZ tagged the 61.8% fibo last night and begun a push north accelerating at the close.

The VIX has been in an upward trend since 13th September, since the volume on the SPX started to wane...hmmm:





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billt
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - 07:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...and the VIX, uptrend since 15 Sept:




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rdumas
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

With FAZ, keep your mind open to the following possibilities. The thing to look out for is wave equality between the a and c waves. If it starts turning down at that level then we have probably got a corrective move rather than an impulsive move. The blue lines are equal range lines.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - 11:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Latest EW stuff

Cheers
MM

The S&P remains in a resistance range that should prove formidable. Signs of slowing upside momentum continue to emerge and once prices trace out a small "five down," the market will have provided confirmation that the one-larger-degree trend has turned down.

The S&P has taken three daily stabs at pushing decisively through the 60%-63% Fibonacci retracement of wave 1 down; last Tuesday (Sept. 21), last Friday (Sept. 24) and today. That range is 1148-1154. Points above that, at 1158 (±), wave (c) would equal wave (a) and prices would intersect with trendline resistance. So this area, 1148-1158, still appears to offer a good target range to mark the end of the current rising trend.

Friday's high as well as this morning's high created a potential bearish divergence in the daily Relative Strength Index, as shown above. In order to confirm this negative chart set up, the S&P will have to break 1122.79, which should correspond to a break of the intervening swing low in the RSI (see green dash line). By itself, this event would not confirm a top, but it would be consistent with the behavior one should expect to see as prices turn from "up" to "down." When viewed in the context of a complete (or nearly complete) wave structure, it would be one more piece of evidence that stocks had completed wave 2 up.

The DJIA may be turning here with the S&P, but if the S&P decides to test the top end of the above-cited range, then the Dow will likely tack on the extra 110-130 points from tonight's close, to 10,920-10,940, an area that we discussed Friday night. Short term charts look like prices are tracing out "five down" from today's high, the building block for a trend reversal. As soon as we are able to confirm the trend change, we will discuss it here.

The lynchpin to a turn in equities may be a concurrent turn in the U.S. Dollar and euro. Stocks have been rising since late May, early June, pushed by rising optimism. It's been the exact opposite for the U.S. Dollar, which has been falling since June amidst evaporating optimism. We discuss the potential for a turn in currencies below and it is something we are watching intently.

The NASDAQ came very close to filling its open gap at 2393.30, pushing to an intraday high of 2386 today. Whereas Friday's high was two points shy of an exact Fibonacci .618 retracement of wave 1 down, today's intraday high was two points above it. As we noted Friday, optimism is now at its most extreme since days prior to the Primary wave 2 (circle) top in late April at 2535. The same potential RSI divergence discussed for the S&P is present here in the NASDAQ. A break of 2316 would confirm this non-confirmation, which should lead to follow-through selling pressure. Resistance remains the 2394 gap, the top of wave iv (circle) of 1 is 2434 and the .786 retracement of wave 1 is 2450.

The [iShares Lehman 20+Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)] gapped strongly higher at today's open. I am still not highly confident as to the next significant short term move. Both the 2-year and 10-year US T-note are at or near new highs, so these shorter-term instruments may be pointing the way for the long end. If so, it would mean TLT will rally back to test, or exceed the recent 109.34 high. But there are options and until we feel confident with respect to the next move, we would just as soon wait and watch before issuing a forecast. As soon as we can relegate most options to alternate status, thereby allowing us to hone in on one or two top patterns, we will discuss it here. Tonight's chart simply shows the yield on the U.S. 2-year and 10-year note as well as the 30-year bond. With two-year paper at 0.424%, bond buyers, by their actions, indicate that all is far from well in the financial markets.

As of Friday night, 95% of traders polled in the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) were bearish on the [U.S. Dollar Index]. It does not get much more extreme than that. Contrast that with the June 7 high (88.71) when just 4% of traders were bearish. The current pessimistic extreme is what typically attends a significant market low. In this case, we expect the dollar to make a wave (2) low. Today prices fell to 79.19. While today's low may mark a bottom, the index is still above the 77.28-78.23 range includes the point where wave C would be a Fibonacci .618 times wave A. We cannot rule out a decline into this range prior to the start of wave (3) up. As before, a rise above 80.26 would be a sign that wave (2) is over and wave (3) up has started.

The [Euro] remains at the 1.3490-1.3511 range we mentioned last Monday night. Optimism toward the euro's continued rise is at 96% (DSI). A close under today's 1.3285 low would be the initial signal that wave (3) down to new lows was underway. If the rally extends near term, the next resistance is the upper channel line formed by the euro's rally, which crosses 1.3720 early this week.

[Gold] remains at round-number resistance of $1300 as well as the midline of the Elliott wave channel formed by the rally from $680, the October 2008 low. There is little new to add to recent comments, with respect to the wave structure. Within wave (5), wave 5 remains near 1.618 times wave 1. If prices continue to rise, the stronger series of wave relationships remains in the $1371-$1386 range, as described previously. In terms of sentiment, the upside is "crowded" and we will discuss some of the key sentiment issues in the upcoming edition of EWFF, which will be published on Friday. As before, a close under $1236 (a previous fourth-wave low) would be a signal that wave 5 and (5) is complete. A break of the previous wave 4 low at $1156 will confirm that a multi-month gold high is already in place, with prices retracing the October 2008 rise from $680.


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billt
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Hi Rudy

I assume EWI's comments are predicated on the fact that they are looking eventually for a substantial move south. They are looking initially for a small "five down" on SPX to confirm the larger correction south - is that what you take from the comment:

"Signs of slowing upside momentum continue to emerge and once prices trace out a small "five down," the market will have provided confirmation that the one-larger-degree trend has turned down."

With a higher high put in last night on the SPX, at best we only have a commencement of a potential wave i at the close on offer - as you suggest it does look like SPX has a bit more wiggly room north...

Thanks for your ABC comment on FAZ Rudy - every third wave gets the 'wave equality' treatment,... 'assume it's an ABC wave until proven otherwise'!


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rdumas
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - 01:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Your comments re the EWI comment is also the way that I see it.

Regarding the wave equality stuff that I'm always sprouting about, it's one of the best ways of determining whether you have a wave 3 or a corrective move. Rudy's Number 1 EW rule: Always doubt a third wave that has the same range as a first wave.

It will save you heaps of money and also gives you a high probability wave c target level.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010 - 01:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

re:- Your latest Market Wrap

You haven't been writing much in EWW about your preferred XJO scenario. I was encouraged to see it numbered i, ii, iii as an impulse wave from early July. I was wondering if you could expand on where you think that might go and how it might correlate with all the arguments for a decline.

The big question is "Are you putting longish term money in the market as a result of this analysis or is it too speculative at the moment?"


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rdumas
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Hi Ken,

I haven't done much on the XJO because most people on EWW are on my mailing list and hence I tend not to want to repeat myself. As indicated in my market wrap I believe that the XJO is currently in the following pattern.




At present I believe that we are forming wave b of subminuette wave ii. I believe that the upcoming retracement will be of relatively short duration (1 ~ 2 weeks) and I will be entering the market at the completion of that wave. At present I have around 17% of my SMSF capital as liquid cash ready to put into the market and will have another 8% available in late October. The rest is in long term (1~5 year term deposits). I will therefore have about 25% of my capital tied up in the market until what I consider to be the peak in the market early next year.

At this stage I anticipate that will occur in February/March but it could slip out to May. It will be easier to determine once we see what sort of pattern evolves between now and then.

How far can the rally go? Well in my view we should definitely be able to take out the April high and at a stretch get to the 61.8% of the big plunge (5426.37).




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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XJO Price Action 28 September 2010

Maybe there is a bit more to come tomorrow. This mother isn't in a hurry to complete the rally.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 08:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Similar Buildup to SPX Top

I will be out all day so unfortunately won't be able to watch the market. I have no doubt that many of the bears will be getting highly frustrated by the length of time being taken by the S&P500 to put in its top.

All you need to do is look at what happened at the previous market top to see that it is only doing what it does on quite a regular basis. No two tops are the same and this one could (and in fact I half expect it to) thrust up to around the 1168 level before dropping. On the other hand it could do something similar to that which happened last time.




The share market sure has a fascination with contracting wedge patterns.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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hi Rudy

The set-up looks very similar as the previous top as you suggest.

The US Financial indices have already peaked it would seem, they seem no longer able to post the same topping highs. BKX is certainly not as bullish looking as the SPX with the last two weeks trending down.

I am watching the SPX to see if this latest action was the entry into the correction south through a i/ii move last night. The MACD and RSI are still diverging and trending down. MAs on the 10/15 min inverted bearish during the dip last night. MAs on the Daily still bearish aligned 200 over the 50. Another big 8.4% swing on the VIX last night, continuing its trend north, putting in a series of four out of five black candles on the Daily - the last time that occurred was at the start of the April correction:




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billt
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 01:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I did not spot that the SPX put in a new high by 0.08, so perhaps a few more days before we complete:

a


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I've been out all day and was just about to point out to you that the count in your post 331 was invalidated because last night the SPX topped at 1150.0 where as the previous high was 1149.92. Fortunately your following post indicated that you had already worked that out.

So the bottom line is that it may take a bit more time but I would suggest that it is getting very close now.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 04:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Rudy

Perhaps a thought for use on EWW - those numbers in circles are tough to do!

Most of the day to day labelling is in the minute/minuette/subminuette level....shame a simpler system to deal with these levels could not have been adopted, say 1,2,3 then i, ii, iii then (smaller case) 1,2,3...



September 24, 2010
An Elliott Wave Notation Scheme for the Rest of Us
By Chip Anderson

A while back, we solicited suggestions for what the "best" Elliott Wave annotation scheme was so that we could add it to our charting tools. Here's what we learned: Elliott Wave aficionados use a W-I-D-E variety of techniques and they are very passionate when they say that "Mine is the best!"

So that put us into a difficult spot. With no clear-cut winner in the debate, we needed to come up with a f-l-e-x-i-b-l-e scheme that would satisfy as many people as possible. I wasn't sure we were going to find a solution, but then I got an email from Tom Denham.

Tom Denham is the Senior European Stocks Analyst for Elliott Wave International. (For those that don't know, EWI is headed by Bob Prechter, one of the top Elliott Wave analysts out there today.) Tom sent along something he calls "An Elliott Wave Labeling Convention for Everybody." Here's how Tom described it:

"An annotation convention should use ordinary fonts that are available to everyone. The Elliott Wave annotations of the largest publisher of Elliott Wave charts in the world, Elliott Wave International (EWI), is not suitable for general use because EWI uses a proprietary “circle” font for some labels to set the company’s work apart from the work of other publishers. However, because the EWI convention is familiar to so many people, a general-use convention should stay close to EWI’sapproach. The annotation scheme proposed here keeps all elements of the EWI scheme except that double parentheses are used around numbers and letters where EWI uses circle fonts."

We certainly were struggling with the whole circle-font issue. There are some technical challenges that were preventing us from mimicking that convention effectively. Also, because of the wide variations in Elliott Wave annotations that our users sent us, we wanted to create a solution that allowed people to easily customize their annotations rather than be forced into one specific set of symbols - and that meant we wanted our Elliott Wave annotations to be created as text annotations. Once they are placed on a chart, they can be edited just like any other text object.

Needless to say, Tom's convention was very appealing to us. Unfortunately, EWI never officially adopted this convention - Prechter wanted to use circle fonts to be "different" - but Tom feels, as do I, that this convention can be very useful in many situations. For those reasons, we have decided to adopt it as our "default" Elliott Wave annotation convention (keeping in mind that it can be easily changed).

Here's a table showing what "An Elliott Wave Labeling Convention for Everybody" looks like:

Grand Supercycle ((I)), ((II)), ((III))), ((IV)), ((V)), ((a)), ((b)), ((c))
Supercycle (I), (II), (III), (IV), (V), (a), (b), (c)
Cycle I, II, III, IV, V, a, b, c

Primary ((1)), ((2)), ((3)), ((4)), ((5)), ((A)), ((B)), ((C))
Intermediate (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), (A), (B), (C)
Minor 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B, C

Minute ((i)), ((ii)), ((iii)), ((iv)), ((v)), ((a)), ((b)), ((c))
Minuette (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (a), (b), (c)
Subminuette i, ii, iii, iv, v, a, b, c

Micro ((1)), ((2)), ((3)), ((4)), ((5)), ((A)), ((B)), ((C))
Submicro (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), (A), (B), (C)
Miniscule 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B, C

(The colors are optional.)

This is the convention that the new version of our ChartNotes annotation tool will support by default when it is released later this month. I want to thank Tom for sending it to us and I want to thank everyone who sent us feedback on this issue earlier


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I don't really mind what convention is used because as you say we are usually only ever seeing 2 or at most 3 different levels on the one chart. Even different colours can be useful because the more brackets you use the more cluttered the chart becomes and hence readability of the chart becomes a problem.

The main reason for a labeling convention is to differentiate the different levels on the chart. The simpler you make it the easier it is to read. So if you meet the needs of the "main reason" then you have come up with what is needed. Go for it mate.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 05:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

Time to turn off my computer and see what else is happening in my world. Before I do I thought that it might be a good idea to post the following chart.......some food for thought.

We have just seen a clearly defined 5 wave move up to the recent peak. As you know up to now I have been reluctant to call a top to the rally that started on the 25th August. I have a feeling in my bladder that this may be it.

By the way Bill do you notice the 'invisible ink' labelling that I have used on my chart.......absolutely no clutter at all.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 05:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For those considering investment in a potential multi month rally later next month, an updated performance result list on the Bull ETFs for the past month rally:

TNA Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares 50.2%
TYH Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares 47.8%
SOXL Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares 47.2%
DRN Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares 46.3%
LBJ Daily Latin America Bull 3x Shares 45.3%
DZK Daily Developed Markets Bull 3X Shares 44.6%
EDC Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares 41.9%.
MWJ Daily Mid Cap Bull 3x Shares 40.9%
FAS Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares 38.7%
BGU Daily Large Cap Bull 3x Shares 36.1%
ERX Daily Energy Bull 3x Shares 33.7%

SPX went up 10.6% over the same period. TNA outperformed SPX by 4.7 times, and TYH 4.5 times.

The Technology sector outperformed all other sectors on the SPX in the last month.

TNA & TYH are the consistent performers in a sustained rally.


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billt
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 05:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Off for a few beers to celebrate!!




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rdumas
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 08:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Well done mate. That was a good labeling convention.

I thought that you might be interested in BHP at the moment. Now keep in mind that his baby carries a lot of weight in our index so our index listens carefully to what it says.



Now I have put in a couple of labels (A and B) but they could equally be 1 and 2. From a short term trading perspective it doesn't really matter. The main point is that all the indications are that there is soon to be a move down and it fact it may have already commenced.

This EW pattern view is confirmed by the Slow Stochastic and W%R indicators in the following chart.




Also note the love affair that BHP has with bear flags.



Now is the move down going to be a similar size to the range of the move down preceding the current bear flag or is it only a part of the overall move down caused by the move preceding the red bear flag. Haaaaa. The mind boggles.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 08:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BHP certainly looks ready for a turn around.

The US Financial Indices have given up, and overnight the SPX could have had some end of month 'window dressing' by the funds before the trip south, but that doesn't explain RUT - the US Small Caps. RUT is often the other canary - and it shows little sign of heading south? Previously it heads off in the new direction before the others....wave 3 of 5 does not look like it has completed (690 target?), so it does give some support to another minor push north?




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rdumas
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Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 10:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Looks like the XJO is leading the SPX again as it did in April. The XJO is clearly in a decline whereas the SPX is being pumped up. You may wish to keep an eye on Anthony Caldaro's site at http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ for a bullish EW count that may be worth considering. I'm a bit busy at the moment with non market stuff to do an analysis at this point in time.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 11:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

That move down sure looks impulsive and could be setting something up like the following:





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 11:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Initial Support for XJO

Support may come from one of the SMA's on the XJO in the short term.

20 day SMA : 4611.8
150 day SMA: 4590.2
50 day SMA : 4530.2





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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XJO Price Action

Wow, we've already tested the 150 day SMA in a one wave move (around a 109 point move)!!!

If that is what the first wave did, what will the third wave do??


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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Pretty impressive move Rudy, what are your targets for Wave 2 up? I think we may be at the top of it right here at 4605 but I may be wrong and it may have a bit further to travel north before turning back down?

Thoughts mate

Cheers
MM







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billt
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Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 02:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Despite SPX & RUT still completing the uptrend pattern in a ABCDE pattern to complete wave 5, my other 'canary' RIFIN (USA Financials) commenced its decent back on the 21st September.

I topped up with a shed load of FAZ (x3 inverse RIFIN) at the time....

It would appear that it has carved out a completed Minuette i/ii pattern and perhaps has set up Subminuette waves i & ii of Minuette wave iii, and ready for a trip south...

Large divergences still in play & MAs still inverted on the 15/30/60 minute charts - it may be the 'leader of the pack' on this occasion...so there was a little method in the madness in buying those little FAZ'ers. :-)

Bill




 
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Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 08, 2010rdumas50 08-Dec-10  06:45 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 02, 2010skyhawk50 02-Dec-10  09:49 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 29, 2010ehmu50 29-Nov-10  03:36 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 24, 2010rdumas50 24-Nov-10  07:36 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 15, 2010eagle50 15-Nov-10  06:57 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 09, 2010rdumas50 09-Nov-10  10:47 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 31, 2010billt50 31-Oct-10  11:58 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 26, 2010skyhawk50 26-Oct-10  07:51 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 21, 2010billt50 21-Oct-10  05:41 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 15, 2010billt50 15-Oct-10  11:42 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 11, 2010skyhawk50 11-Oct-10  08:13 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 06, 2010rdumas50 06-Oct-10  02:09 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 03, 2010skyhawk50 03-Oct-10  01:59 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through September 23, 2010rdumas50 23-Sep-10  01:29 pm

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