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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through October 06, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 06, 2010

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rdumas
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Post Number: 4108
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Sunday, October 03, 2010 - 02:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Come to think of it I think you did tell me that it was the continuous spot price of Gold and the AUD but I forgot. Thanks for the reminder.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, October 03, 2010 - 04:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A bit more on cycles

I've heard of all sorts of different cycle periods which usually include 30, 45, 60, 90, 135, 180, 270 etc but haven't seen an 82 day cycle. I noticed that of late the XJO has had an 82 cycle that has been repeating fairly consistently (there's one 86 day cycle in there just to throw the spanner in the works).

Anyway it does give potential turn dates on the 30th October (which unfortunately is a Saturday) and the 15th November (a Monday). Up to now the 82 cycle dates have given reasonably significant turn dates.










I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Sunday, October 03, 2010 - 06:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

Looks pretty convincing as there is a nice cycle. It could be the that it marks a high instead of a low?

I have finetuned my conti cycles for the SPX. They suggest a low around 20-21st October. This is a low due in 13 traded days from now, but this scenario might fit in better with that of ETF Gold as we expect a short term rise there.

Cheers
application/msword
spx conti cyclic action.doc (207.4 k)



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ehmu
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 05:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Not to trash your BPT at all. Only to present another view.

Some of my canadian friends use "levels" to cull out their picks for taking a trade. A "level" is where either the buyers or sellers take control most frequently. If they find congestion of levels, they pass it bye. If they find agreement on levels, and fewer reversals, they consider it further for compliance with other rules.

My friends look at levels on different time frames, but to simplify my post a bit, I'll just describe how they determine the exact level of res/sup, using the daily chart below. We use charting programs that translate trend lines from one time frame to another, so checking confluence between time frames is very easy.

The close of the candle following a visible hump high is where sellers-red took control. even numbers on my chart

The close of the candle following a visible hump low is where the buyers-green took control. odd numbers on my chart

For my evaluation of this trade for my personal purchase, I would not take it until it closed above .70 for a swing trade (ie using the daily chart). I would be more aggressive if I thought the markets were trending up and use a close above the 89ema in this case which is .693. However, it would fail my next test which requires a reward of two times the risk.

BPT may have potential as a short term swing or day trade, but unfortunately I don't have any intraday charting capabilities for the Australian markets, so please accept my comments in the context of the daily chart.




ps I'm still exploring & testing this levels concept, but I'm amazed at how often the price stops to the penny at these levels, and seldom overshoots more than a dime on a $10 stock. You can imagine the advantage this system will have in range bound markets, where a person can place bids in advance, with tight stops.


_____ n a m a s t e

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billt
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 07:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Guys for the Q&A on the Cycle Stuff - easier for me to learn simply watching you guys communicate.

Your SPX work Andrew still might allow time for Rudy's more Bearish Count. The time period of Wave A had to cope with the Flash Crash, which might make a Wave C complete a few days more quickly.

The strength of the pullback will determine how hard ETF Gold runs. $AUD would pullback more sharply and POG should spike if a Wace C is the outcome....





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billt
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 07:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy for the Zero Hedge article:

* Peak Oil
* Sovereign insolvency
* Currency debasement

All three issues are running ahead at full speed, so it is only a matter of when not if!

The petroleum stocks perhaps have underperformed compared with the Peak Oil concern - certainly a theme to consider in a bull market run.

Other than Gold Bullion, I can see no other real alternative to protect against the Sovereign Insolvency or Currency Debasement issues?


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market_mad
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 09:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Latest from EW

Cheers

How high does it feel like the S&P 500 has gone over the past 9 trading days? From late in the day on September 20 to today's close the index is up less than 2 points. The S&P 100 (OEX) is down for this same period. Stock market rallies usually die of exhaustion. The current rise appears exhausted. A prolonged decline should be the next major move.

Hopefully by now you've had a chance to read the new issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. To summarize our stance: Pattern, price and time have converged to indicate that the start of wave 3 down is imminent. Yesterday, the S&P "spiked" to 1157.16, where wave (c) equals wave (a), and met the upper line of the channel, as shown on the above chart. The time relationships discussed Wednesday night and in today's monthly newsletter are in the process of being satisfied, with the usual degree of tolerance. There really is not much more to add to our recent forecast, as the above chart speaks for itself. There are times when the market's precision is amazing. October should see a swift and significant decline.

Each market index has its own specific "quirks," even if the wave structure may be similar across indexes. For instance, we've been discussing the S&P's pattern, price and time confluence, which indicates that wave 2 is ending. But the same wave relationships and retracements do not apply to the DJIA. The market's senior index did not meet its channel line nor does wave (c) equal wave (a) in length, as it does for the S&P. However, the Dow has satisfied other aspects of a countertrend move, which the S&P has not. Let's look.

Observe that the DJIA "spiked" to 10,948.90 yesterday morning and then reversed. Yesterday's intraday high occurred at the level of wave "four of three," which was 10,946.80 on May 5. Robert Prechter first discussed this targeting method in the July 2002 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, commenting that, among various characteristics, this particular retracement level often acts as a ceiling for further advance in an upward correction. The sharp reversal after the test is the initial signal that it will indeed mark a "ceiling."

There is one point of explanation that I'd like to take a moment to discuss; we did not include this in the newsletter. One reason we had thought that the August 9 high of 10,719.90 had marked the top of Minor wave 2 is because the DJIA had returned to the wave (ii) of v (circle) high, which was 10,718.90 on May 18 (see above Dow chart). Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter has a worthwhile discussion of market behavior following the end of fifth-wave extensions (see p.66). Wave v (circle) of 1 down qualifies as an extended fifth wave, although one can certainly argue this point. Still, when the DJIA retraced to the August 9 high, it was a near perfect test of wave (ii) of v (circle) and the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) had risen to 75% stock bulls from just 10% at the July 1-2 lows. The subsequent sharp downward reversal on August 11 was evidence that the market had attained an important near-term level two days prior. So there was little reason at that point to expect a more complex upward correction. But that's not what the market had in mind. We've often said that corrections against the one larger trend can be challenging to forecast because there are 11 different corrective patterns and combinations and one never knows in advance which form or combinations will develop. Minor wave 2 was a challenge, but there almost always comes a point in a correction where clarity appears due to the emerging pattern, the price level or time, or, in this case, all three.

So, what reason was there for the market to rise above the August 9 high again before starting Minor wave 3 down? We now see the answer, which is that the Dow wanted to test this very specific and higher target before starting the next big selling phase. Thus, the final upward zigzag within Minor wave 2 satisfied two different targeting levels: wave (a) topped at the wave (ii) of v (circle) high and wave (c) topped at the wave (iv) of iii (circle) high. Prices ended on the spike that we surmised might happen in Wednesday's Update and the various time relationships that we also discussed Wednesday (and in the newsletter) have been satisfied. There is no Elliott wave reason to expect any additional significant upside push for stocks. Minor wave 3 down should be at hand. If we are wrong, we're wrong. We would know it by a Dow and S&P rise above their respective April 26 highs at 11,258.00 and 1219.80.

The only other possible short-term iteration of the wave structure that would allow prices to hold up on Monday or Tuesday, thereby satisfying perfectly the time relationship between waves, is if the S&P and Dow traced out small-degree running triangles from Monday's highs to today's lows. This pattern would allow one final push back to the upper channel line very early next week, which would complete Minor wave 2. Whether or not this less-likely possibility occurs, by the end of next week Minor wave 3 down should be well underway. Any break of yesterday's lows — 10,745.40 in the Dow and 1136.08 in the S&P — would allow us to eliminate this near-term alternate and indicate that a top is already in place.


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rdumas
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 10:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

I appreciate your post on BPT. I'm always interested in another way of looking at things especially if I've got my money riding on the stock in question. If you look at the Beach Energy Limited - BPT in the ASX Short Term thread you will see that my friend Dolphin also has a requirement to breach $70 as a confirmation before entering. There are some excellent technical analysts on IC and there are some good ideas tossed around.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 10:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

I just love those short term Conti cycles. It's amazing how repeatable they are in the short term. Other work that I'm doing also suggests a low somewhere between mid and late October.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 10:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

In your weekend wrap you mentioned 4617.4 on the XJO as significant in invalidating one of your counts. It got to 4616.4 a few minutes ago and may go through soon.

Ken


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ehmu
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 10:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Re: peak oil etc.......

Something I haven't seen discussed much is the fear of the government grab of capital markets, especially in resource countries like Australia, Canada, and Russia.

To be more specific, I think that in Canada investors and traders alike are reluctant to put money in the resources sectors because Governments have already squeezed.

Revenues from crude oil for example, in Canada, after provincial and federal royalties, the oil companies are left about 25%, of which they are required then to pay income tax on, and develop new reserves. The refined products have even smaller margins, because after the price of the initial crude product, their profits are taxed for income, as well as sales tax at the retail outlets. Concessions to encourage further development are always short term by government, so no one can count on that either.

Our gold producers are in the same boat, not knowing how the government will syphon off the revenue.

This presents a problem for the producer stock prices to follow the commodities.


_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 11:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

At time of writing this post the current rally went higher than the 4617.4 level and hence the following EW count for the XJO replaces the one shown in my market wrap document.

As mentioned in the market wrap, this move would not greatly change the medium term direction of the XJO. It would just change the level of the corrective pattern for the second wave.




I just noticed that in my market wrap document that I had unwittingly left out an important word from one of my comments on page 5 which completely reversed my intended meaning. The sentence should have said the following (missing word highlighted):

"With the frustrating price action on both the US and Australian indices it would not surprise me if this occurred."

Also mentioned in my market wrap is that the current topping action on the SPX still possibly has a few days to run so it too could spike up to a new high in the coming days before completing this rally. From an EW perspective,depending on the counts used, you could easily argue both for the case that the rally top is in place and that there is one more thrust up to go. These particular topping patterns are not easy to read and you just need patience and understand that the declines are not far away.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 11:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Thanks for continuing to update us on the EWI view. It is always worth while knowing their thought processes even if we don't particularly agree with their medium term EW count. This is because their short term technical reasons for a decline are valid in my opinion.

They continue to stick to their view that we are about to embark on a massive primary wave 3 down to oblivion. The view of the 4M's is that we have another large rally leg to complete before we are ready to do any real damage to the share market. We will know which of us was right by Christmas.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 11:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

As a possible alternate. Last Thursdays low was
a completed impulse and since then we maybe
tracing an irregular flat with the wave C component
(impulse) happening today....

Cheers


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ken
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 12:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

Is there and XJO level that will invalidate all bearish cases in the short term?


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rdumas
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 12:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

I believe that what you have described is exactly what I have shown in my last post.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 01:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

In the short term if the April 15 high of 5025.1 is taken out then it would invalidate the current bearish EWI scenario that is being painted (but only for a few months). They currently believe that the April 15 high was their completed primary wave 2 and that all subsequent pice action was the early part of their primary wave 3 forming.

If that level is taken out then the view of the 4M's would be validated in that the March 2009 rally was not completed on 15 April and will in fact complete sometime in the early part of 2011.

Just to refresh readers memories on what my expected longer term EW count is for the XJO.




As you can see from the above chart, my view is that the March 2009 rally has not yet fully completed- If I am correct then what we only completed was Intermediate wave (A) and that the current correction possibly completed Intermediate wave (B). My favoured scenario is that Intermediate wave (B) was completed and we are currently in Intermediate wave Intermediate wave (C). Once that multi-month rally is completed it will mean that my Primary wave circle B will be completed.

I have a more bearish scenario that suggests that Intermediate wave (B) has not yet completed but I have put that scenario on the back burner for the time being.

Anyway, the EWI scenario is that March 2009 their Primary wave 1 and April 2010 completed their primary wave 2. In their scenario, the current price action is part of primary wave 3.

Their scenario differs in two main aspects from my view. Their labelling (use of numerals) indicates that they are anticipating a large impulse wave down to oblivion. The other thing where they differ from my view is that they believe that the large third wave of their impulse wave is already underway.

In my view my labelling (use of alphas) indicates that I am considering the GFC as a corrective wave only and that eventually (after a duration of several years) we will form a new bull market. In my longer term view I believe that the GFC is a corrective wave 4 in a large multi-decade impulse wave up. As stated before, I believe that we still haven't completed my primary wave circle B yet. Once it does complete however, even though the following primary wave circle C will be pretty horrendous (sovereign defaults of major economies, etc) it will none the less not lead to the end of the world in real terms but just be an incredibly nasty experience. It is entirely possible of course that the demise of the US as the world power that we have seen in the past will possible come to pass. I do hope that I'm wrong about that.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, October 04, 2010 - 01:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Current XJO Scenario

This is a more detailed view of the current scenario for the XJO assuming that the Intermediate wave (B was completed earlier as suggested in the previous post.





In my post 4114 I have labeled the first two waves of the current corrective move as waves alt (a) and alt (b) instead of waves a and b as shown in the above chart. None the less I am speaking of exactly the same waves.

Once wave b is completed we should head down in wave c to complete subminuette wave ii. Whilst it is possible that we have already completed the corrective abc move down for subminuette wave ii I very much doubt it.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, October 05, 2010 - 06:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi guys

SPX & all other US indices appear to be in a wave 3 of (3) event. Difficult at this stage to assess what level we are in, but it appears we are underway for a journey south.

The 20 day MA is quickly approaching(1128.46) and will be the first major MA that will provide support for the SPX, unfortunately for the bulls, once that level has been reached the SPX would of already broke below the all important level at 1131 and would be in the process of filling a large gap.




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billt
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Tuesday, October 05, 2010 - 07:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy

Spot Gold held up very well in the SPX sell-off overnight.

$USD rose, $AUD dropped ...so far, so good!




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billt
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Tuesday, October 05, 2010 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Interesting to note that the USA Oil & Gas Producers Index came off heavily last week.

The September rally set up the lower high, retreating from the overhead trend line. Prices are about to break the MA(40) on the Weekly, and the PPO is rolling over.

A Wave C could wipe out 100+ points pretty quickly on this index.

Not sure how Aussie Oil Stocks will behave in this sell-off?





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billt
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Tuesday, October 05, 2010 - 07:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy/Andrew

A final entry on Gold.....

$42 million of gold bought by one UBS client! (wave 5's can run!)


Super-Rich Investors Stock Up on Physical Gold
Monday, 04 Oct 2010 01:03 PM


The world's wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying gold by the bar — and sometimes by the metric ton — and by moving assets out of the financial system, bankers catering to the very rich said on Monday.

Fears of a double-dip downturn have boosted the appetite for physical bullion as well as for mining company shares and exchange-traded funds, UBS executive Josef Stadler told the Reuters Global Private Banking Summit.

"They don't only buy ETFs or futures; they buy physical gold," said Stadler, who runs the Swiss bank's services for clients with assets of at least $50 million to invest.

UBS is recommending top-tier clients hold 7-10 percent of their assets in precious metals like gold, which is on course for its tenth consecutive yearly gain and traded at around $1,314.50 an ounce on Monday, near the record level reached last week.

"We had a clear example of a couple buying over a ton of gold ... and carrying it to another place," Stadler said. At today's prices, that shipment would be worth about $42 million.

Julius Baer's chief investment officer for Asia is also recommending that wealthy investors park some of their assets in gold as a defensive stance following a string of lackluster U.S. data and amid concerns about currency weakness.

"I see gold as an insurance," Van Anantha-Nageswaran said. "I recommend 10 percent as minimum in portfolios and anything more than that to be used for trading purposes, to respond to short-term over-bought or over-sold signals."


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skyhawk
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Tuesday, October 05, 2010 - 07:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

I have bought into ETF Gold too for a trade lasting 5-10 trading days at best. 
What worries is that the weekly cycles are pointed hard down ATM. I am skeptical of this upmove in ETF Gold and feel it maybe anaemic with possibly a 4-5 dollar move up at the very best.

Ofcourse the cycles can change in a dime. 

Cheers 


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rdumas
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Tuesday, October 05, 2010 - 08:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Based on the current figures for the POG and AUD we should open up on ETF GOLD at around the $132.24 level which is a bit below the $132.50 level that it closed at yesterday.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Tuesday, October 05, 2010 - 08:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

Latest from EW - thanks Rudy for your comments and we appear very close to a decent pullback in my view. Key levels on the XJO are 4530. That needs to hold otherwise I think it will be a deeper correction that will unfold.

Cheers

The stock market is in the process of forming a top. A prolonged decline should be the next major move.

To quote a line from the April 2009 issue of EWT, "There are times to work hard at market analysis and times to let the market work for you." We've done the analysis with respect to the market's near-term swings. Prices are satisfying pattern, price and time relationships, as detailed here and in the most recent EWFF. It's now time to patiently let the markets do the work.

The most important event today was a break of the September 28 low of 10,728.60 in the Dow and 1132.09 in the S&P. By violating these lows, the pattern now allows us to eliminate the small-degree running triangle, which was the top alternate potential over the near term. So the odds for a turn lower are increasing by the hour. This doesn't mean that prices cannot make another brief stab at new recovery highs, but it does mean that if they do, it won't be from the end of a fourth-wave triangle.

Something else happened today with respect to the DJIA. The index declined (intraday) beneath 10,730.80. A close beneath this level would make the selloff from last Thursday's 10,948.90 "spike" high the largest since the August 27 low (in terms of points), suggesting that the character of the market had changed. In this case, it would be from up to down. The equivalent level in the S&P is 1131, which is today's intraday low.

Another strong piece of supporting evidence for a top would be a decisive turn down in the euro and up in the dollar. We discuss the potential for this move in our currency commentary. By EWI's All-the-Same-Market theory, once the dollar starts wave (3) up, various assets denominated in dollars should decline in the next leg of the ongoing larger bear market.

Thus, slowly but steadily it appears that prices are rolling over into Minor wave 3 down. The next several weeks should see a persistent decline, as the first sub-waves of Minor 3 of (1) down unfold.

This weekly S&P chart shows that prices are at a confluence of trendlines. The picture also highlights the initial wave 3 target range, which is 867.50-878.00. This range is the .618 retracement of Primary wave 2 (circle) and the point where wave 3 would be 1.618 times wave 1. This latter relationship rarely, if ever occurs, but the fact that it clustered so near a Fibonacci retracement means we should at least be attentive once prices reach the range. Obviously, if a market decline now is Primary wave 3 (circle), the downside potential is much greater.

As indicated in EWFF, the April 26 highs of 11,258 in the Dow and 1219.80 in the S&P are key levels.

The NASDAQ provided some noted downside leadership today, with the 100 index falling below its September 23 intraday low (1967.82) in today's session. It has been only two days past the intraday high last Thursday (2029.65) but already the 100 index has closed at its lowest level in two weeks. The NASDAQ should be rolling over with the blue chips into the next leg of the ongoing bear market. As we noted Friday, the wave iv (circle) of 1 high is 2434, which is the next resistance, but there is little evidence to support a push to this level prior to wave 3 down. The initial target range for wave 3 in the Composite is 1750-1760, which, similar to the S&P, is formed by the .618 retracement of Primary wave 2 (circle) and the point where wave 3 is 1.618 times wave 1.

I have nothing new to add to recent comments with respect to bonds. We have no strong directional bias with respect to the near term direction of bond prices. As a result, we are going to have to await more pattern development before we can gain a high measure of confidence once again. As long as the [iShares Lehman 20+Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)] remains beneath 106.32, we think the odds favor a continuation of the decline that started at 109.34 on August 25. A push above 106.32 would, we think, flip the near-term picture back to bullish. Hopefully, we will have something more definitive to say in the next couple of days.

Our discussion of currencies this evening will begin with the [Euro], which sports one of the prettiest charts that we've seen this year. First our conclusion: The euro is topping and ready to start wave (3) down, a major, long-term decline. Now the evidence: Observe the A-B-C rally from the June 7 low at 1.1876. Wave C has met the upper trendline of the channel in conjunction with a Daily Sentiment Index of 97% bulls (trade-futures.com), a greater optimistic extreme than was registered at the November 2009 top at 1.5147. Prices have retraced a Fibonacci .60 (3/5) to .618 of wave (1) down in both price and time, as shown on the chart. Additionally, the overnight high at 1.3809 occurred at the wave iv (circle) of 1 high, which was the extended wave within Intermediate wave (1) down. Thus, pattern, price and time have converged to signal that the euro should be at the forefront of a significant trend reversal. Wavers, the evidence does not get any stronger than this. This does not guarantee an outcome, of course; there is no such thing as a guarantee when dealing in any market. But this is as strong a set up for a decline as can occur, in our opinion. If there is any residual near-term strength left in the rally, the maximum bullish potential for prices is just above 1.4000, which is where wave C would equal wave A, wave "four of three" of 1 down and the 66% (2/3) retracement of wave (1) down. I don't think prices can reach this upper level, but I cannot rule it out just yet. Regardless, our stance is bearish the euro in anticipation of a major decline.

The flip side of a euro decline is a rally in the [U.S. Dollar Index], which is our forecast. Wave (2) is bottoming in the 77.28-78.23 area, a range that we've discussed as holding the strong potential to mark a low. The decline is clearly extended, with the Daily Sentiment Index showing just 5% dollar bulls (trade-futures.com). As we showed with the euro chart, all indications are that a trend reversal is nigh. The dollar's next major move should be wave (3) up to well above the wave (1) high at 88.71.

In [Gold], if one places the wave 1 of (5) label over the March 3 high at $1145.25, which is an acceptable way to label the pattern, then today's $1321.10 high means wave 5 is 1.618 times wave 1. With the DSI (trade-futures.com) at over 90% gold bulls, prices could be at the end of their long rise. But we still do not have conclusive evidence in support of this view and, based on larger wave relationships, the $1371-$1386 range remains a stronger candidate for a top. A small-degree five-wave decline would be the first significant technical evidence that gold had completed wave (5). The implications would be that a multi-month decline had started.


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rdumas
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Hi Billy Boy,

Re your post 356 and the possibility of a wave 3 event. Most bears would be hoping for that but the fat lady still hasn't sung just yet. Remember that the 1130 level was a very strong resistance on the way up and can be a strong support on the way down.

Always keep an eye on the wave equality level for a possible abc corrective move down. Wave equality hits at 1129.22. Note that the 20 day SMA (MBB) is located at 1128.6. If we find support at those levels then we could get another kick up for a few days.





A fair dinkum wave 3 event will bust through those levels with a range on the third wave being at least 161.8% of the first wave move.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Thanks for thinking of my BPT trade with your post on the USA Oil & Gas Producers Index. I am keeping an eye on that index and am aware of the risks. I have to admit that the trade is boring me at present and I may pull the pin on it.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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hi Guys

Thanks MM for the EWI post.

I found the quote on POG interesting: 'the $1371-$1386 range remains a stronger candidate for a top'. EWI have never really been a strong Gold Bull, so to suggest it has a bit to go is unusual for them! But you are right Andrew to be cautious, as if we get Rudy's Wave ii rather than the bigger correction, then the $AUD decline will be limited.

The US Oil Index seems to follow the SPX fairly closely, albeit at decreased intensity over the past year - at some stage it might rocket on the 'Oil Theme', but it hasn't shown any tendency to do that since 2008? If anything, it hasn't bought into this rally since March 09 lows - that's a bit telling....

I am watching those Equal Wave abc moves closely Rud'meister - I assume you agree that one possible count looks as if we are in an initial 5 waver, perhaps in the process of completing 4 of (3).

The other 'wave ii abc' count might look something like this?:



However, Blue Wave (c) has not yet extended the 21 points of Blue wave (a). 1127 would be a more suitable target on wave equality, I assume. 1128.60 (MA 20 - Daily) could be a target. Perhaps another leg down to complete the run to complete wave (2)?

The larger impulsive waves suggest perhaps that we may have much further to go - but it is too early to tell really. A close below 1128.60 (MA 20 - Daily) and 1118.17 (MA 200 - Daily), would give greater weight to a more significant pullback.

We still have 10 trading days to Andrew's suggested low - so I'm still feeling your more bearish count Rudy is my slight $1.90 favorite....we have more than enough time to get there! ....what else will we do for 10 days!! :-)

Please...no more topping patterns!

What's your view Rudy?


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billt
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hi Rudy

Another Oil Chart - this time USO.

It has been in a down trend since the beginning of the year.

If we have an May 2010 pullback it could be nasty?




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billt
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Interesting entry today on:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/10/the-1937-analogy-is-at-the-top.html


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I've been out all day so could respond to the various posts including your second post on the DJUSOG. As I mentioned in my previous post on the subject I agree with you that things don't look too good for that index.

For your information, here is the relationship between the DJUSOG and BPT.




I suspect that the difference between the two charts could be the influence of the AUD but am not entirely certain. I am certainly keeping a very close eye on BPT because of that DJUSOG index. There is no doubt that the latter is close to a retrace.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, October 05, 2010 - 10:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy/Andrew
11pm Tuesday

New Record High for POG...$1327.80 before NY Nymex opens.

Bullion Bank Selling expected at $1330, but there seems no stopping for now.

$AUD continues to weaken.


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ehmu
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 02:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We're getting close to the fireworks now. Support probably at 13ema short term


ehmu wrote on Saturday, October 02, 2010 - 11:35 am:

Eh team:

Interesting, how some are making money on this micro-churning activity.

Attaching a chart of the SPY again. For what it's worth, I think that the price needs to at least touch the down trend resistance. That could be a guess of 5 trading days if the current action persists.

For those with better math than mine---the 100pt gap down that I was imagining could rather be a very rapid drop instead. The weekly volatility stop is around that 1055 area, and happens to be roughly 2 std deviations on the weekly chart.

Note that $116 is half way between the 200ma (110) and the next resistance (122) if it heads north instead.

With that kind of energy coiled in the markets, ready to breakdown or breakout, we are about to witness some huge gains on the triple derivatives, and some agonizing mistakes.







_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 07:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX Price Action

Readers may recall my post 4120 yesterday which said:

"Hi Billy Boy,

Re your post 356 and the possibility of a wave 3 event. Most bears would be hoping for that but the fat lady still hasn't sung just yet. Remember that the 1130 level was a very strong resistance on the way up and can be a strong support on the way down.

Always keep an eye on the wave equality level for a possible abc corrective move down. Wave equality hits at 1129.22. Note that the 20 day SMA (MBB) is located at 1128.6. If we find support at those levels then we could get another kick up for a few days."



Well, as we can see the fat lady still had some more business to do. The chart below shows us that we are approaching the UBB at 1163.36 and both the short and medium term W%R indicators suggest just a bit more to go.

Now whether we can spike through the UBB to the 38.2% Fib level at 1174.44 or top out before that really matters not. The divergence between the price action and TMF shows that things are not as bullish as they appear on the surface.






The chart below shows us that the long term declining trend line is being tested at this point in time. A strong break through that would be pretty bad for the bears.




I continue to hold the view that any retracement that we have during the October period will be over by mid to late October and will stay above the 1039.69 level and that a multi-month rally will continue into early next year.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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The overhead SPX trend line was given a real nudge.

However, the push up last night was completed on low volume again, which continues to show lack of conviction. Large divergence has set up on this new high.

Lucky I put in some abc's in yesterdays EW count! Are we there yet?








Gold record price - again - as Trader Dan states: 'Gold soared into yet another all time record high, silver shot up again making a fresh 30 year high, copper made a 2 year high, platinum and palladium were both strong and crude oil closed in on $83. Nearly everything that remotely resembled a commodity was up'.

It looks to me that we are in a Wave 3, and we will continue to push higher as long as the US keeps printing those Greenbacks! $1500 is the overhead trend line on the Weekly...






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billt
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just checked back to the track I put against POG a month or so ago - the price action is slightly ahead of schedule:





Are we in Wave 3 of 5 Rudy - what do you think?


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I put in a sell order for my ETF GOLD at $134.40 today. I'll be happy enough with the profit on that and will leave the cream to you guys. I have always had a target of between $1300 and $1350 for the POG and believe that it will probably hit the top figure in the next day or so.

Whilst the POG may continue going up I suspect that the AUD will do the same and I'm getting rather bored with the trade.

(Message edited by rdumas on October 06, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 09:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill,

I forgot to answer your question about which wave we're in. I personally think that we're in the final stages of a 5th wave which is why I don't really want to hang around in the trade. 5th waves in commodities can really stretch to extremes but when they snap back they do so with gusto.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I ended up with a sell at $134.58 so I'm more than happy with that.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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hi Rudy

It certainly is a boring trade!

I'll hang in there until this SPX correction is complete, then I'll bail too.

More lucrative things to play with, whilst the Aussie economy shines...


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rdumas
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What may be happening on the SPX


Following are the two possibilities as I see them at present for the SPX. I do expect a slightly higher top but not sure if we will get a short retrace first of all.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Rudy, the question of which wave we're in is not for POG which well could be in the 5th wave, but for the ETF gold which has the AUD to consider. I have just re-entered ETF GOLD because it has just emerged upwards from a consolidation, and hence is probably just at the start of whichever wave it is in.

I find it strange that you make trading decisions for ETF GOLD on only half the relevant information, ie POG.


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rdumas
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Hi Ken,

Actually that's not true. I don't just look at one aspect even if I sometimes only discuss one particular aspect of the stock on this thread.

In the short term GOLD looks overbought to me as you can see from the Bollinger Bands and the W%R indicator. Now it is true that the 5th wave could keep moving up quite a few dollars yet but I always tend to get out early in my trades because of my risk aversion profile.





When the indicators tell me that there is a short term pull back at a time when I expect a significant top of some kind (whether short or medium term) then I'm happy to sit on the sidelines even if it means out that I miss out on some cream. That's just the way I am. Not saying that I'm right, just that I'm comfortable doing it the way I do it.

(Message edited by rdumas on October 06, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 01:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BPT Trade

On the basis of the possible rolling over of the US Oil and Gas Index I decided to play safe and exit my BPT trade at my entry price this afternoon. The decks have now been cleared.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Hey, Rudy, does that mean you will also 'exit' your BPT entry in the ASX Weekly Comp'n at tomorrow's open instead on letting it 'run' to Friday's close?

Just thought I would let you know that such a 'strategy' is within the rules of the Comp'n.

Ah! But as I'm writing this I see BPT has just place a 'notice' with the ASX so is now in 'pre-auction' mode so if she goes into a 'trading halt' you will be stuck with her for next week's pick!!!!

Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. May be fortuitous of you exiting in the real world!

P.S. Merely a Monthly Drilling Report; your safe(on both accounts) as she resumes in 10mins!

(Message edited by gdd3 on October 06, 2010)


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

I just sent you a PM asking you how I exit my BPT trade in the Weekly Comp.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 01:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Further SPX Ramblings

Further to my earlier post on the price action of the SPX. Another aspect that is worth noting is that the SPX just had 'time wave equality' which is another thing leading me to believe that the time draws near (no pun intended ).




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Just place a 'one liner' on the thread as a simple note to RAGS...

RAGS please exit my BPT, Rdumas or {RDumas, BPT, Sell}

You will be credited with tomorrow's opening price.

Dolphin}


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gdd3
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Rudy, SPX not only equal time periods but 99.9% equal price as I pointed out earlier today in a post in the I.C. Forum MARKETS TOPIC under the SP500 thread.

Dolphin







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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 02:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Thanks for the advice about the weekly comp protocol.

Yes, I just noticed your post in the S&P500 thread. Looks like our minds are in synch (with a delay in mine )

Cheers


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
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Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 08, 2010rdumas50 08-Dec-10  06:45 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 02, 2010skyhawk50 02-Dec-10  09:49 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 29, 2010ehmu50 29-Nov-10  03:36 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 24, 2010rdumas50 24-Nov-10  07:36 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 15, 2010eagle50 15-Nov-10  06:57 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 09, 2010rdumas50 09-Nov-10  10:47 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 31, 2010billt50 31-Oct-10  11:58 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 26, 2010skyhawk50 26-Oct-10  07:51 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 21, 2010billt50 21-Oct-10  05:41 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 15, 2010billt50 15-Oct-10  11:42 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 11, 2010skyhawk50 11-Oct-10  08:13 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 03, 2010skyhawk50 03-Oct-10  01:59 pm

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