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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through October 11, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 11, 2010

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billt
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 02:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Ken

Welcome to the ETF Gold Team!

I see ETF Gold as a 'short' play against the XJO. The only time it really comes into play is in a XJO/$AUD correction south - and only in a sustained POG rally.

My own feeling is for the next two weeks those conditions have a higher probability to eventuate. XJO/$AUD looks set for a correction south, and POG is in a wave 3 of 5...this is rare event!

If Rudy's more bearish SPX EW count prevails that may replicate the conditions which caused ETF Gold to rally back in May. This would require a 15-20% correction to the XJO, a potential 15-20% correction on the $AUD back to 80 cents, and a 15-20% rally in POG to $1500.

An ETF 40% rally to a $190 target keeps me interested....

If Rudy's more bullish SPX EW count prevails (and of course this is Rudy's much preferred scenario) we may only get a 5% correction - the effect would be greatly marginalised, perhaps running to the May high at best.

We have a few weeks to find out, so I'll let the trade run for now.

The BB 'choke' is similar to that which preceded the May rally - the BB's squeezed and she popped out north!




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billt
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 02:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Equal Time

Equal Price

Equal Wave Lengths



Rudy's Bearish EW abc Count Rules! Odds now shortened to $1.80! Bullish Count out to $2.20....







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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 02:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I'll put $500 on the bullish count. I think that you're giving me over the odds. It will be all over by the end of October (if I'm right).


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 02:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill,

I see ETF GOLD the same way - as I get signals in my super fund to sell normal stocks, I will be buying equivalent amounts of ETF GOLD, as the only way I know of making money in a down market.

I use CFD shorts with my personal trading money, but ETF GOLD with super as I don't like to borrow in it.

Ken


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billt
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 03:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rud'meister

Mate I wouldn't want you to loose on your own e'dubya count....that would be unfair. (It would be like betting on a 'no ball' or a 'penalty kick')

You have drilled into us:

Equal Time + Equal Price + Equal Wave Lengths = Equals ABC

Valid until shown to be invalid!

I choose not to ignore the wise words from the great old e'dubya wise one...:-)

The alternate view is that, by co-incidence, the wave from 1010, just happens to be the same time & price of a parallel wave i....so unless you have some other magic up your sleave, I'll keep your other count alive & kicking...


ps. Put $500 on BHP - this rally will not die until you do!


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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 03:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

If it wasn't for Andrew's yearly cycles analysis I would be drawing the same conclusion as you. His medium to long term cycles analysis has been proven correct so often that I'm reluctant to ignore it in spite of all of the contrary evidence.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 04:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

Bill and I would both like you to go Long BHP.

If you could just wait until we put our Limit Short orders in, we'll pay you to buy one share of BHP at $100!


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rash
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Wednesday, October 06, 2010 - 04:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



That was a joke, by the way, not an attempt to circumvent the law.

Interestingly, one of the CFD outfits had its knuckles wrapped very badly for doing exactly that a few months ago. It caused a spike which allowed the CFD provider to knock out all of the trades it didn't want on its books.

On a more serious note, we are starting to see significant negative divergence in the CCIs on Polly's weekly.

application/msworda
500.doc (51.7 k)



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rdumas
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 09:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

As indicated in my last weekend market wrap I do currently have a bullish preferred EW count for the XJO. My count is bullish purely on the basis of Andrew's cycle analysis work. In the absence of that work I would strongly favour the bearish count that Bill often mentions in his posts.

Anyway for the time being to refresh readers memories of my bullish count scenario the following chart was in my last market wrap.








The price action for the XJO since that time has shown that wave b has developed from a simple 3 wave move into a larger 5 wave move. That EW count is shown in the following chart. We could be approaching the completion of wave b sometime today.




If the termination level of my labelled wave (ii) gets taken out then I would revert to the bearish count discussed in previous posts. The bearish count would have a rough target of around the 3844 level.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 09:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

Following on from my comments on ETF GOLD yesterday. As I mentioned in that post the W%R indicators were telling me that a retrace was on the cards in the short term as well as my concern that the POG was reaching a price that I had always thought could be an interim high.

Anyway for those reasons I thought that it would be worth pulling out of the trade and monitor what happens in the pull back. We can see form the chart below that the W%R-14 has started its move down and it would appear that it may not be complete just yet. It is quite likely that we may get a bounce off the MBB which (depending on the pattern formed at the time) could be a good re-entry.





Naturally enough it could also move up from the current levels. I really don't like being in a 'blow off' type of trade as they reverse so quickly and savagely. For that reason I was happy to take profits and leave the cream for the less risk averse.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 10:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

It looks like a classic 5/3/5 ABC move to me on XJO - I'm not totally sure that it has completed as yet? SPX looks even more convincing!

Still enough time to get to Andrew's low 20 October and your more bearish count target - a series of 100 point red days will do it...

Interesting to note that on XJO, on an equal wave length basis, the target for wave c was 4730.3. On time equality wave c may have completed precisely to the day.

If we push above 4698, I'll be watching for 4730! However, those BB bands are not providing too much upside...


Wave a = 416.4
4598.7
4182.3

Wave c = 384.1
4698.0
4313.9





Always on the lookout for an alternative EW idea - particularly when it looks pretty convincing. :-)


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rdumas
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 10:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG in Blowoff Stage

I have drawn the rate of change lines on the previous rally for the POG. Those rate of change lines were then superimposed on the current rally. Note the similarity of the current rate of ascent with the previous blow off phase.

Now admittedly these blowoff phases can go further than expected but when they reverse, the do reverse very quickly. Note also that we have an 'over throw' on the longer term bearish rising contracting wedge pattern.



Anyway, time for lunch and then a trip to the accountant. I finally finished my SMSF tax stuff.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 11:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



An alternative to your short-term XJO scenario 2 count posted earlier, Rudy, to suggest may be wave ii is incomplete? I guess I wasn't comfortable with your a b c irregular labelling....proportions out of wack maybe? Having said that, if scenario 2 is going to be the correct one it doesn't really matter...we are both looking for the next biggest leg in this time frame(wave iii) to be up anyway...its just a question of from where?



Cheers
Dolphin}


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rash
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 12:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the EW counts - up and down.

Dolphin ... I did a quick calculation on your's and your red iii would seem to come out about 5145, with an eventual top around 5530, if the final wave were to equal the first. Is that how you see the targets?

Ciao - RA


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gdd3
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 01:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rash,

Slightly different 'perfect' target for wave iii coming in at 5135(1.618 x 356{Rudy's wave i}) but wave v would come in at 5376 assuming wave ii and wave iv equality and wave i = wave v. BUT thats just for a wave(iii) target.

Hey, Rash, lets see if we can get above 4718-30 to negate an 'abcde' possibility similar to say Rudy has shown because I can't count out that we are still mapping out wave ii and the leg up from the 4559 low is not a wave 'd' with a wave 'e' for wave ii to follow from near present levels. However, I only see that wave 'e' would come back to ~ 4545 to complete wave ii.

Cheers
Dolphin

(Message edited by gdd3 on October 07, 2010)


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rash
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 02:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dolphin, many thanks for the extra detail.

We each have a favorite view of what is "most likely" to happen next, but when the price action refuses to comply and begins to display signs of "something else", it's handy to have an alternative pathway to follow.

Good luck! - RA


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gdd3
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 02:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rash...forgot to attached a chart of the alternative to Rudy's 'abc with the 'abcde' count I referred to above.



Dolphin}


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rdumas
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 02:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Back from seeing the accountant. Now I can get back to the fun stuff again. I agree with you that there are a lot of possibilities and certainly your count is one of them.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 03:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What's been holding the market up?

Looking at the combination chart below it is pretty obvious where the lift has been coming from.




I would suggest that much of the rise in the materials index is due to the falling US dollar. If you check out the technical indicators on the USD you will find that they are indicating that an interim bottom may be just about in place. The effect of this will be that the commodity pricing will start a fall and this will lead the market down in the near future for the next week or two.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 03:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Added here to EWW, for a source of thought on EW Counts. A touch of FA to add to the TA:

Things You May Have Missed:

1. Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be “Fairly Bad” or “Very Bad” Over the Next Six to Nine Months

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is likely to be “fairly bad” or “very bad” over the next six to nine months.
“We see two main scenarios,” analysts led by Jan Hatzius, the New York-based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. “A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession.” He placed the odds of a renewed recession at 25 percent to 30 percent. He told reporters that was up from 15 percent to 20 percent at the start of the year.

2. US Middle Class Slams Brakes on Spending

Households in the middle fifth of the population sliced their average annual spending to $41,150 in 2009, the Labor Department said Tuesday in its annual spending breakdown. That was down 3.1% from 2007 and 3.5% from 2008, the steepest one-year drop since records began in 1984.

3. US Food Stamp Recipients at Record 41.8 Million Americans in July

The number of Americans receiving food stamps rose to a record 41.8 million in July as the jobless rate hovered near a 27-year high, the government said.

4. US Private sector sheds 39,000 jobs in September

Private employers unexpectedly cut 39,000 jobs in September after an upwardly revised gain of 10,000 in August

5. Fitch Downgrades Ireland's Rating on Cost of Banking Bailout

Fitch Ratings lowered Ireland’s credit grade to the lowest of any of the major rating companies and said there’s a risk of a further reduction.
Ireland was cut to A+ from AA-, reflecting the “exceptional and greater-than-expected cost” of the nation’s bailout of its banking system

6. Greek debt and deficit figures to shoot up: EU

Increased figures for Greek national debt and deficits covering contested data from 2006 to 2009 will be published this month, the EU said on Wednesday after conducting its first invasive audit.

7. The US Federal Reserve is Selling Paper Gold and Buying Physical Gold

"The shorts of ‘paper gold’ at J.P. Morgan [the Fed in drag] are selling the daylights out of the paper market and simultaneously buying exclusive rights to producers’ future production so they can try to fudge their way through an unmitigated fraud and settle a big enough chunk of their bad bets to keep this ‘systemically ruinous’ precious metals ponzi-scheme alive" ...Rob Kirby

8. Europe Services, Manufacturing Cool as Retail Sales Decline

Europe’s services and manufacturing industries grew at the slowest pace in seven months in September, adding to signs that the economy is weakening as governments from Spain to Ireland implement austerity measures.

,,some observations...

I have searched through the updated US Economic Statistic Indicators, and I cannot find a single Indicator which has recovered to April 2010 levels. Most Indicators dropped in April and have bounced around at those lower levels since then.

US Unemployment figures out on Friday are forecast to rise to 9.7%, which is in line with GS idea that it will get to 10%. US GDP looks like to remain at current levels (<2%) or negative according to GS.

The only thing I can see that will drive the SPX north in a multi month rally is a possible imminent announcement of another big dose of QE2. The markets may just shrug off the bad news and concentrate on spending more freshly printed Greenbacks, and that Europe's woes will be 'put in a box' for the moment?

Anyone with a better idea?


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billt
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 04:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Come on Polly - haven't you finished yet?




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billt
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ken
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 07:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A couple of facts that might be of interest.

1. Many people were forecasting 1346 for the top in POG, mostly Elliott Wavers I seem to recall. We have now convincingly passed this, presumably this is the extended 5th wave in precious metals you hear about.

2. Most of you won't be following the XSO index, the Australian Small Ordinaries. Today this index went higher than its April high but has not yet passed the January high. Check it out. This index includes the smallest 200 stocks of the ASX 300, and includes most of the stocks I trade.


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paint
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Thursday, October 07, 2010 - 07:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good call Ken - XSO is definitely where the action is .... and the volatility. With the M&A machine on a roll - this is the spot to be at the moment


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billt
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 06:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

POG hit $1360 before JPMorgan (the FED) shorted again to bring it back to $1330, at 8.30am NY (same M.O.). The FED is selling those bonds - can't have gold going parabolic can they...see above: 'The US Federal Reserve is Selling Paper Gold and Buying Physical Gold'

SPX - is it set, or another drawn out topping pattern? A couple of reversal dojis in play -






Ken, US Small Caps (RUT) outperformed everything else as well - but that is pretty standard in Disneyland. Shame there isn't a turbo charged ETF set against the Aussie Small Caps!


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billt
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 06:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The action has definitely been in the small guys:

September/October Rally:

XSO 14.5%

RUT 17.1%


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rdumas
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 07:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Billy Boy,

The SPX is in the midst of forming a descending channel at this stage.




At first sight I thought that maybe it was forming a bullish flag pattern but the Bollinger Bands and W%R indicators on the intraday and daily charts indicate to me that this is highly unlikely.

The intraday chart below indicates that whilst there may be some upside left, this upside should be limited by the UBB. This is confirmed by the W%R indicator rapidly closing in on the overbought territory.





The daily chart below shows that the price action is sitting at the UBB with the W%R indicator turning down.




Based on the above charts I would think that the trend should be down over the next few days.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 08:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Looking at the POG chart below I think that the writing is on the wall. There is a bearish divergence between the price action and the MACD and the W%R indicator has started a downward journey after the price action pierced through the UBB. As far as I'm concerned, it's saying "look out below!!!"




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 09:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bulls need to hold the 4670 level





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 11:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

POG

It looks to me a potential completion of wave iii of 5.

I'll wait to see how India & China respond today as they have been looking for setbacks in price to buy. In the past, POG has simply risen back to the pre NY market open price on Asian buying...If you were Chinese and the international pressure is on to devalue your own currency, what would you buy pronto?

POG has risen 30% this year, so a modest 2% correction in the counter trend is not that concerning.

The W%R indicator can stay oversold for many months - eg, August to December 2009 and the divergence has been there for over a year whilst POG has risen 30% - so I will wait for now.

If we have a 10-20% pullback on the SPX/XJO, the $AUD will suffer...POG should be in wave v of 5 by then, and another $200/oz could easily be added in a matter of weeks.

It's a risk/reward thing....

Interesting to note that the 'US Financials' have now been in a topping pattern for 19 trading days! Time for a pullback...


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rdumas
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Hey Dolphin,

The XJO seems to be so irrepressible at the moment that your EW count in your post 1052 is looking a real possibility. Here's a slight variation on it.

The possible impulse wave that appears to be forming is obviously too small to be wave iii that is is probably a sub wave 1 of the larger wave.




The validity of the count will depend on whether there is a break down of the price action in the next day or two such that the 4500 level is taken out.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 11:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You could of course be right but for me it is too big a risk at this stage as even Andrews medium term cycles were heading south which im my mind confirms my EW thoughts about a downturn in the stock that should last for several months. For me it is just not worth the risk. I am still happy that I banked my profits the other day as I would have been well and truly in the red if I hadn't.

But hey, that's what makes a market. You've got to have both buyers and sellers with different time frames and risk profiles.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 12:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Billy Boy,

I have to admit that I was very tempted to go in at $132.00 today but I'm trying to stop the day trading habit.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 06:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

It appears to me that POG is in a wave iv. (...not sure you could call it any other way?) It looks all impulsive to me!

Wave iii terminated just short of a 100% extension of wave i. Looks text book stuff...

Lower Trendline broken 4 trading days ago and now being back tested.

EMA 21 (pink line) has provided support to prices since early August, and I anticipate that the $1300 level will provide a level of strong support if prices drop further.

Wave v could over extend beyond the overhead trend line - $1500 remains my target.

The $USD looks set for a rally, which will be negative for $AUD. SPX & XJO look set for a correction.

US Jobs figures tonight may provide the catalyst for hostilities. Higher unemployment brings on QE2, which brings further debasement of $USD - flight to safety equates to Gold rally.

My ETF Gold 'Target' +25% (+13% on POG & +12% currency) - it could easily jump +10% in an overnight session.

Downside risk, POG falls through $1300, but $AUD weakness in a correction might soften most of the blow...

I plan to exit the trade at the end of the XJO correction..bigger fish to fry in a sustained rally.

That's my logic?





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billt
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 06:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Aussie Heads South?

Well that's 2% out of 25% completed:




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ken
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 06:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Members,

I have been assuming that when the AUD starts falling it will be accompanied by our market falling, like last time.

The assumed mechanism is that at least a significant proportion of the incoming money moving the AUD up has been invested in the stock market, and that when the AUD falls, the value of the stock market investments will fall, and overseas investors will want to get out.

However the driver for the fall in both last time was collapsing commodity prices, which are less likely if the currency wars and quantitative easing continue.

Can you see a scenario where both the Aussie market and the ETF gold both fall together? What would be happening if this did occur?


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billt
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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 07:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Ken

If the XJO fell, it would be highly likely that the $AUD will drop with it, as it is a commodity (risk) based currency. Not a 'dead cert' but if you look at the two indices you will see the correlation.

For ETF Gold to fall at a similar time to the XJO, would require the price of gold in $USD (POG) to drop faster than the drop in the $AUD in percentage terms. That is also possible.

You have to take a view on POG - Rudy & Andrew have real concerns on a cycle basis. The alternate view is perhaps wave v is ready to explode north?

The $AUD normally comes off in a correction, and 'commodities' in general are due for a pull back too.

Perhaps we should have all been on Double Silver in the last rally, falling wedge pattern May to August = 69% rally:




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rdumas
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Saturday, October 09, 2010 - 02:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

I can't give you the fundamental explanation of when the XJO and ETF GOLD go in the same direction but at least I can show you that it does happen quite frequently. The periods bordered by the red vertical lines are periods during which the two either went in the same direction or at the very least move in an inverse relationship.

So regardless of whether the fundamentals can explain it what is very clear is that it does happen quite a significant proportion of the time.



did not


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, October 09, 2010 - 03:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Bill,

What do you think of this EW count for the POG?




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, October 09, 2010 - 03:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



USD Looks to be Bottoming


As posted on Randall's thread yesterday in response to a post from Hal regarding the USD. As suggested in my post there was a strong possibility that after achieving a higher high that a higher low may develop.

At this stage, considering where the LBB is located, that still remains a strong possibility and hence an interim bottom may be developing.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, October 10, 2010 - 07:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

On the larger count I have ETF Gold about to start a wave iii of wave 3.

The wave 3 could be more of a 'spike' than a wave, if a fuller correction of the SPX gets underway and we see a 20% SPX crash. POG & $AUD might swing 20% very quickly, giving a 40% ping to ETF Gold, pushing it to new highs c$185. Blink and you may miss it!

POG is in a wave v of 5, pushing north again at the $1350 level.

$AUD is set for a correction south.




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billt
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billt
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Sunday, October 10, 2010 - 09:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The troubling signs for the SPX is the bullish falling wedge patterns now playing out on the Weekly Charts and the 60 minute chart. April/May 2010 type spike looks imminent:








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rdumas
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Sunday, October 10, 2010 - 10:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My Current Two Possible XJO EW Counts


The following charts detail my two current possible EW counts for the XJO. At present I favour the bullish scenario but would move to the bearish scenario if the current pattern breaks down.







Apologies for the faded colour of the XJO in the chart below but it should give readers some idea of the point I wish to make anyway. If we were to believe that the bearish case come to fruition, wave A took 36 calendar days to complete. If wave C took the same amount of time to complete then it would do so on 15 November (which is a Sunday so we should slip it one day). This is obviously way beyond the timing that Andrew originally had for any corrective move in October.





Just as an aside I would like to remind readers of a chart that I posted on 3 October which showed an amazing 82 day cycle in play for the XJO which also nominated 15 November as an important date.



(Message edited by rdumas on October 10, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, October 10, 2010 - 11:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

I'm keeping this ABC count alive, for now.

The abc rally up off the 1010 low looks fairly text book to me - 5/3/5 pattern, equal wave lengths, etc...Whether it is a Wave B or a Wave 2 is still open to my mind - a lot depends on the US GDP performance in the quarters ahead.

With the US VIX looking to bounce out of bullish falling wedge patterns on the Weekly, Daily and 60 Minute charts (see earlier posts), I sense a correction similar to April/May/June 2010 might be the outcome.

US GDP is forecast to remain below 2% and with a 30-40% chance of a negative result in the months ahead (refer earlier posts Goldman Sachs & Roubini forecasts), I see little cause for optimism out of Disneyland. Unemployment is still on the rise, as are Debt & Deficit which are unsustainable.

I am not discounting a 5 wave down scenario due to the horrendously poor US fundamentals. If Goldman Sachs & other leading economists predictions of a potential 'Double Dip' eventuate, a 5 waver is a certainty to my mind.

I'll be watching SPX for prices to break the red trend line, then the retest of 1040 and 1010 levels.

With the upper BB just 9 points away, we may not have to wait long for the outcome.

The main US banks laid off considerable numbers of staff in the last two weeks - worldwide, and Westpac and others are following .... doesn't sound bullish to me?




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rdumas
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Sunday, October 10, 2010 - 02:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Just a minor problem with your wave count. Your Wave A cannot be an impulse wave (at least the waves that you have labelled) because your third wave has overlapping waves which is a no-no. For correctness you would need to label it as a corrective wave. The rest of the count looks legal.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, October 10, 2010 - 04:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My S&P500 EW Counts for Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Hi Folks,

I was not particularly happy with the EW count that I had in my market wrap for the S&P500. The following counts replaces the count shown on page 5 of my market wrap.

Possible Bullish EW Count for S&P500





Possible Bearish EW Count for S&P500





Detail of the last part of the current rally for the Bearish EW Count for the S&P500




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, October 10, 2010 - 06:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy/Andrew

Is Andrew's Cycle date still 20/21 October? As SPX has extended the topping pattern, it would be interesting to get Andrew's latest thoughts:




To achieve 960 by 21 October on the SPX we need an average of >20 points per trading day which will require a sell-off similar in rate to the beginning of the April/May SPX correction.


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billt
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 07:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Andrew

Could one possibility be a X+4 pattern:

35, 39, 43, 47

That might take the next low out to 29th/30th October?

cheers

bill







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skyhawk
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 08:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

I should have posted on this board last week but have been to busy.

At this stage my 38 bar cycle should be 41 bars of counted from
absolute lows and highs.
I am not sure about the 3rd week Oct low, it might only be minor
or a non event....

Long term (monthly) cycles are very bullish, and picking the smaller
cycles has been challenging.
Given that the last 2 weeks has seen the trend intact, it all goes well
for a big move up between now and March next year

 
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