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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through October 15, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through October 15, 2010

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rdumas
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Post Number: 4162
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 09:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

Using the chart that I posted yesterday as a gauge if wave v of circle i has a range of 100% of wave i then the target is 4751.7. If it is 50% of wave i then the target is 4709.25. I suspect that the eventual peak should be somewhere within that range.

So far it peaked a little beyond 4709 and shied away.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Post Number: 392
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 01:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Andrew,

Sounds like 23/24th October - we will have to watch what Polly decides to do in the next couple of weeks...







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gdd3
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 01:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Speaking of 'cycles', a 'recent' posting on HC today by a good T/A sighted the following re: the XJO, and I quote:-

I mentioned how Fib 3,5,8 years ago major turns of 10th Oct.

Well obviously 10th was a Sunday this time plus we aren't at a yearly high or low so...

We did manage 2 X 2364 (1987 top) or 4728. 4729 actually!

As for 10/10/10 being an interesting date, the low in 2005 was 05/05/05.

Then you can consider Feb 02 (02/02) the high, Mar 03 (03/03)the low etc, lol.

Its called clutching at straws :-).


....and may be thats all it is, or trying to justify one's current views.

Interesting, though!

Dolphin}


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rdumas
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 02:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Just a dumb question. What is HC?


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 02:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Remember mate, the XJO is fast approaching the equal wave length target for wave c of 4730.3! If your Wave Circle i hits that target....hmmmm

...I'm like a dog with a bone! :-)

bill

..no idea what HC is ....?


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rdumas
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 03:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Looking at my post 4162 the 4751.7 level (wave equality between wave i and v) gets the price action to the upper boundary of the expanding wedge.





So there is another wave equality scenario.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 03:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi again Rudy

By the look of your SPX counts, and the BBs, it looks like this week we might see this correction finally unfold. The nature of the initial few waves will tell us a lot... wave lengths of the first 3 waves will be telling.

At what point will you feel that the probability of one count occurring will be more than the other?

A correction which begins to falter within wave iv range (1122) will obviously be conclusive to the bullish count.

I would have thought that if prices dip below 1088 (61.8 fib), the probability starts to swing to the Bearish option, and if we take out the 1040 zone....we should be heading lower.

How do you see it? ...




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rdumas
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 03:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The bullish count remains valid whilst ever the 1039.69 doesn't get taken out. Wave 2's can sometimes retrace most of the wave 1's. I would remain bullish until then.

If you have a look at the chart below you can see the following:

20 day SMA at 1140.58
150 day SMA at 1122.07
50 day SMA at 1110.25
LBB at 1113.7

That is a hell of a lot of support to break through.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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p3t3
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 03:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Monday, October 11, 2010 - 02:34 pm:

....a #### question. What is HC?


Hot Copper, I reckon : HotCopper (Forum website with much discussion on small cap stocks).


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rdumas
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 03:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Pete. Now I understand.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, October 11, 2010 - 04:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With 150 day SMA at 1122.07 still above the 50 day SMA at 1110.25, hope springs eternal!

An interesting double abcde set-up, see if it plays out tonight?




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rdumas
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Tuesday, October 12, 2010 - 07:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



High Frequency Traders


Check out the amazing video at http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/ regarding HFTs. I found it extremely interesting.

Here's an extract from the website regarding HFTs.

"Crazy that in the last four years that HFT computers have gone from 30% of total volume, to an incredible 70+% of the volume, and with the FED manipulating the bond markets lately, which does effect the equities market, how can Elliott wave, or Technical Analysis have a chance under these circumstances."


Note that there is a link to the Nathan's Economic Edge website that expresses the dangers coming out of this form of trading which I also believe is worth reading.


(Message edited by rdumas on October 12, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, October 12, 2010 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here is the extract from the Nathan's Economic Edge website mentioned in my previous post.


60 Minutes Fluff Piece on High Frequency Trading

What follows is advertisement for erectile dysfunction followed by advertisements for stock market dysfunction. While vaguely describing what HFT is, Steve Kroft and 60 Minutes never get to the real issues. Mary Schapiro certainly doesn’t get to the real issues and never has.

They are not talking about the illegality of placing orders and pulling bids in an attempt to move the market in a certain direction. They fail to address the fact that the HFTs can see bids and stops before they are even executed. They fail to talk about the now programmed Monday morning ramp jobs, or the morphed Friday afternoon front running of the Monday morning ramp job. They fail to fully address the issue of arbitraging milliseconds and the advantage that gives to the HFT firms who are mostly the very same banks who comprise the “Federal” Reserve Bank system, and they fail to address that it is these very same banks who also own and operate the exchanges. These are the same banks that comprise "the Fed" who designed TARP, QE, and now POMO's. Thus the very same people create the HFT fuel from thin air, they write the laws, they own the exchanges, they are the largest contributors to political campaigns, they own the HFT machines, they used to own the mortgage on your home but now the government does - in short they own YOU.

Here’s one for you… what if a HFT owner programs algorithms to PRODUCE a flash crash and to take advantage of the price swings occurring within one? Who is there to stop them? Is Mary Schapiro there to protect your stop order from being overrun by these criminals? Hell no, and that’s exactly what they do – they see your stops, they run you out of your position and they take YOUR money without even so much as a blink.

This is nothing but a FLUFF/ SPIN piece that I am showing only to show you what type of crap is being fed to the public. People have no idea just how unsafe their retirement money is. Billions in outflows? Get used to it, there is NO MARKET, there is only a criminal enterprise designed to take your productive efforts from you.



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, October 12, 2010 - 10:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I thought that one of the basic EW rules was that a wave 4 doesn't overlap a wave 1. If that is the case, what is wrong with the count on the attached graph on the link that rudy so graciously supplied.




[_____] All Comments ............


_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Tuesday, October 12, 2010 - 10:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

That is true for an impulse wave but what he has labeled there is a Leading Diagonal in which wave 1/wave 4 overlaps will always occur. It is a valid EW count.

Leading diagonals will occur in the wave 1 of a higher level impulse wave. They can also occur in the first wave of a Zigzag.

The other type of impulsive wave that occurs is an Ending Diagonal. These occur in either the 5th wave of a higher level impulse wave or the 3rd wave of a Zigzag (or any other 3 wave corrective pattern.

So summarising. There are 3 types of impulsive patterns, namely a pure Impulse wave, a Leading Diagonal and an Ending Diagonal.

Wave 1/wave 4 overlaps cannot occur in a valid Impulse wave but do occur in Leading and Ending Diagonal patterns.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, October 12, 2010 - 11:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal

'Columbia' is another Canadian! He often disappears for days to shoot Elk when they are in season! Poor Elk! Funny lot, those Canadians....:-)

Thank goodness we have The Rud'meister to explain 'the rules' - old Ralph Elliott certainly came up with a few beauties!

I think I might need to paste Rudy's response to my forehead, so I can try to remember...


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ehmu
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 12:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy, thanks for the explanation regarding leading and ending diagonals. I'm guessing that a clue of when to look for these diagonals would be when reverse symmetrical triangles start appearing in the fractals. (expanding patterns)

Bill, Elk are very prolific, very tasty, and there are some farms here now that breed Elk. The big money for these farmers is that they harvest the antlers at a special time of the cycle (when the antler has a moss like fur growing on it).

The elk farmers then sell it to mainly the orient, china, japan, india. It is said to have extreme healing powers to the immune system---making it especially helpful to those with arthritis. The main selling point though is that it is an aphrodisiac and virility tonic. Probably unheard of down under where they have no need for this sort of stimulus, more likely requiring sedation of these functions rather than any sort of encouragement. (rumor has it)

It sells for $120 per 100g. A little cheaper by the kilo.



_______________


_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 07:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

On Sunday I posted the following chart for the SPX.




As you can see the chart suggested a move to around the same level as the peak on the 13th May which happened to be 1173.56. Last night the SPX peaked at 1172.58 which is getting pretty close to that level. As a matter of fact the range of the current rally leg is 112.3% or near to 1 and 1/8 of previous rally range.

Anyway the chart ended up looking like the following:




I'm not sure if it will want to head for the 127.2% Fib level before turning (in which case the expanding wedge would be an 'Throw Over' candidate). I guess it all depends on how much more money Ben promises to print.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 07:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



WOW, I'm into Elk big time now - how come you lot kept it a secret for so long. Hey Rudy can you grow one in your garden?

Here is one for discussion Rud'meister...our second favorite Canadian, Columbia, stated a few moments ago regarding the 'bullish count':

"I just cannot buy that because of the breadth and volume numbers, momentum is going the wrong direction for a 3rd wave up. If is was a 3rd wave up, volume should be INCREASING, along with breadth, not waning."

It does make an odd situation for an impulsive wave up, where we have the SPX only gaining 24 points, in 17 trading days...that doesn't seem to suggest a bullish impulsive wave ending?

I'm 'neutral' as you know, I keep an open eye to both scenarios - but the 'Elk Hunter' has a point?

Think how little volume there would be if we didn't have HFT or Eugenio for that matter! :-)

bill


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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 10:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action this morning

Following is my current bullish count for the XJO based on the price action this morning.

I changed the label convention slightly from my previous post of this count to eliminate the circle type labelling.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 10:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Like Randall, I don't have a great deal of respect for the manipulators of the US index so don't get too excited about the SPX. Sometimes the SPX follows normal EW patterns and sometimes there is a lot of 'sea spray' in the waves caused by the manipulation. I just continue to follow the EW counts that I have for both bullish and bearish cases and at this stage they are still in play. Note that the bullish count that I posted this morning for the SPX remains on track.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 10:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I was musing today about what the end game might be for the US. Since they really and truly are the pack leader. Other countries either want some of the crumbs&favors, or they want not to be bitten for being too impudent.

I know that two powerful things that are manipulated are $us, and now recently the options markets. (VIX)

I plotted the argument =UPP/$VIX (eft representing the perceived investment value of the $US with respect to the fear factor--vix ).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX

I think that the chart shows quite clearly the manipulated perception of where the couple are going. The US can continue under the resistance of the rising wedge pattern by either raising the dollar valuation, or by driving the put/call spread lower.

Sounds like they are planning to print more money, lowering the value of the dollar, so they are likely to keep pushing the vix in a downward direction. This would mean that the markets are due to go up another 25% (1442 spx).

The perceived value is rising, but the wave forms look corrective to me on the daily and 60min.


ps some short term cycles may be evident on this chart, but I didn't have time to check that out.



(Message edited by ehmu on October 13, 2010)


_____ n a m a s t e

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billt
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 01:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

The overhead resistance level seems to be the logical spot for the refusal, and by the look of the SPX overnight it printed out another "upteen'th" rising wedge abcde finale finish reversal...



The US index which gives grounds for uncertainty for a sustained rally is the US Financials (XLF). The Financials have not participated in the rally over the past 16 trading days, and I am struggling to see how we could be in a sustained rally north without the US Financials being an integral part of that equation???



POG has now had a second close over $1,350 and has had a push up this morning to retest the recent peak high. Once that level gives way we should run to $1,380. $AUD is still strong.


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rdumas
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 01:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Hehehehehehehe. I sold out of GOLD on the 6th October at $134.58 and it's been farting around ever since. I'm certainly not sorry that I got out of it even if it does manage to go up higher. It is a real teaser of a trading stock at present.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 02:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm just waiting for this XJO correction to complete, and I am out too!

In the next combined POG/XJO rally I will be playing a few* of these gold miners instead:

GMR Golden Rim,AMX Ampella*,SBM St Barbara*,KCN Kingsgate*,IGR Integra,TRY Troy*,MML Medusa*,OGC OceanaGold,
PRU Perseus,AVO Avoca*,EAU Eldorado*,SAR Saracen,GDO Gold One International,NCM Newcrest*

Currently dusting off my preferred 'miners' if the bullish count prevails. US Small Caps x3 Bull TNA , plus some smaller cap aussie miners is my plan...

In the interim, I am poised to hit TZA for the pullback...a few false starts! :-)


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billt
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 - 05:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO has traded sideways for 22 trading days - we are back where we started from. A trading range of 150 points...its like watching paint dry...

Volume in the last 22 days has disappeared. Even Eugenio has given up!

If this is an aggressive wave iii of (iii) it is very boring!

Perhaps it might rate as the most boring wave iii month in the history of the XJO....where is the big trust up and where is the volume....

If I had an Elk to shoot - I'd shoot it. (Bears might eat Elk?)


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paddy
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 01:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill : If they keep Polly above 1178.47 then 1194.46
is on the menu .

PS Moose is also a very good to eat.


Polly really "playing the Fibolin" with
gusto this session. A close
above 1181.53 should guarantee visit to
1194.46 .


(Message edited by Paddy on October 14, 2010)


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skyhawk
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 07:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting price action in POG today.
Looks to either have completed OR completing a 5th wave of SOMETHING???

Ofcourse 5th waves in commodities have a habit of extending, but
ATM it sure looks compelling....

Cheers


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paddy
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 07:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Skyhawk : I see the price touching the UBB . The CCI at
144.17 and RSI at 80.06 are positive although the
RSI suggests some caution on further upward
movement .

The Price has been moving upwards in an Ascending
Channel and at the present time the Upper Boundary
is at 1385± while the Lower Boundary is at 1345± .

To me, it looks like there will be further upside
to this "rally".


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billt
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 08:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX has broken the top of the BBs and VIX has seriously broken the bottom of the BBs. Paddy - I'm out to find a moose too! (good with guinness?)

To me it looks like POG started its wave v, 5 days ago. Wave i lasted over 30 days, so it has some legs left in it for now...it will only stop when Uncle Ben stops printing! Don't hold your breathe...


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skyhawk
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Paddy, I think you might right re the rally.
Just wanted to bring to attention that we might
enter a pause for a little while before continuing
as the current "short term" EW pattern suggests.

As for BB's I take what they suggest with a dose of salt as they mainly useful in sideways markets
not strongly trending markets as are most other
lagging indicators

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 09:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Paddy,

I've had a couple of PMs asking me if I knew who Paddy is. Let me introduce you. Paddy is the 4th of the 4 Musketeers. Paddy knows more about Fibonacci than anyone that I know.

Welcome aboard the EWW express buddy.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 10:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Bill, I hope for you that the fork won't prick your balloon.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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paddy
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 11:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



And the Top o' Morning to you "Ewrkr" .

With Fibonacci ratios I only try to make
use of what was given to me .

What did you do to turn Auntie into a silly old thing trying for a new high? Great for STW . Fib date for
Auntie 10/15/2010.

A tidbit for Polly . Take the range / leg
1156 - 1165 and project 4.236 one gets 1194 which just
happens to be the next significant target level for Polly .

Fib date for Polly October 14 - 15 .

Have a good one . Time for coffee with a nip.


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billt
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 11:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Finally - the real 'brains' of the 4'emmas is here....!!

Welcome Paddy...

....we have learnt about the abc's, the martians and of course the cycles...it is fantastic that you have joined us.

Well done Mr E'Dubya for getting all these guys on line.

bill


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billt
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 12:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here is my longer term ETF Gold Count, we are in Supercycle III...




...and drilling down to the current price action puts us in 3 of iii of 3!!





You have taught us Rud'meister to look at the bigger E'Dubya picture! :-)

POG to $1500, $AUD to collapse with SPX /XJO big sell off....


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paddy
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 12:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill : I have been here before . Created a stir so to
speak on ODB . That's where I got to know
Ewrkr [ Rudy ] after he decided that I was
the Grim Reaper . Gave the "silent ones" toooo
much reality with posts of how the real world
was going to hell in a hand basket .

Rudy got into EW in a big way after I said " ...
........ " . Damned if I can remember - chalk
it up to lack of oxygen .

First there was Ewrkr - OGRE and
Cycle-man. [ my designations ] Dumas was the one
who decided that there would be 4 M's.

I make no claim to being the "brains" of the
group. I might be the most different in that
I have talked to THEM or at least that is how
I interpreted the event.

Enough rambling .

PS Rudy : Is that the Midnight Train bound for Glory ? Or
is there a switch up ahead ?


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rdumas
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 01:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Actually Paddy......it's neither.

It is a fully automated 'out of control' freight train heading for us on the same track that we're on carrying Nitro glycerine.

Bill's not worried though because he's waiting for the POG to hit $1500.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 02:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



..don't ya'just love how I lined up all those etf gold wave iii's....there was a bit of mastery in getting all those in alignment!


...polly falls off her perch...your bearish xjo count gets up on the rails...and everyone finally understands that the fiat system is over! ...easy really?


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rdumas
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 02:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I wonder how long it will be before the rest of the world decides to pull the pin on the USD.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 02:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...forgot to add POG approaching $1380....up 3% from yesterday.



Initial Target: 25 October @ $1470 and overhead two year trend line from September 2008.


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rdumas
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 02:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



That would be good if you were trading the POG but unfortunately the ETF GOLD isn't as good.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 03:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Who would want any currency - $USD, Euro, Yen, GBP...

All of these economies have unsustainable Debt & Deficit, with multiple economic time bombs ready to explode....they continue to live beyond their means and have ongoing liabilities that exceed their ability to pay.

My bet is on SuperCycle Wave III on GOLD...we may not see the end of that SuperCycle in our lifetime....but at least I can say I was there when it started in July 2010, and I bought!

GOLD has doubled in 5 years. Silver has quadrupled. Equity markets and Property markets have been lucky to hold their position.

It is not surprising that UBS High Net Worth clients are being told to hold at least 10% of their net worth in gold & silver bullion.


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billt
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 03:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I sense that your bearish XJO count will produce a record new high in GOLD....

My ETF GOLD EW count on 409 and POG EW count on 411 gives me some comfort that we may have a chance for a 30-40% charge forward on GOLD. It could be all over in a matter of weeks, particularly if we have some big gap downs on SPX....

If your bullish count prevails, we will have to wait until the multi month rally is over....


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billt
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 03:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



my final thought..it may not happen, but,

October 2008 - ETF GOLD spiked 47% in 4 weeks, POG went up 13% & FX did the rest.

If panic hits the SPX....and people rush to the exits....


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rdumas
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 04:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

If the SPX did start to fall to a large degree, it would more than likely happen with an up trending USD. An up trending USD would be bad for commodities which could (but not necessarily) also include gold.

I do have a suspicion that the ETF GOLD will move up but expect it to be fairly anaemic. I am currently in NWS. It went up 1.97% today.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 05:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

I think the trends in both th AUDUSD,Gold, and the stock indices will persist well into next year.

Long term cycles suggest at least into Feb/March 2011 possibly June 2011.

Now what ETF Gold does will largely depend on how the AUD and the POG interact with respect to each other.
application/vnd.ms-excel
etf gold weekly cycles analysis031010.xls (371.7 k)
application/msword
etf gold ew.doc (213.5 k)



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billt
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Friday, October 15, 2010 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX will not die. It might still have some legs in it, but that completed 1/2 leaves the door open for another possible gap down tonight?

After a few sessions hanging out of the bottom of the BBs, VIX Daily headed north last night, and on the 60 minute accelerated out of the declining 'weggie' that was in play for the last two weeks...





Nasdaq Summation Index completed a bearish cross on the STO, and the US Financials had another bad night...



Thanks Andrew for the Cycle Charts...waiting for a SPX pullback to see how POG behaves...


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rdumas
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Friday, October 15, 2010 - 11:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Regardless of what the VIX is doing, the SPX still has some upside in it. The VIX has given a few false signals lately. You are better off reading the SPX directly and will note that the trend so far is still quite strong.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, October 15, 2010 - 11:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



US Financials have not wanted to participate in this rally for over a month.

MA200 over the 50, prices back under the MA200. Big divergences set up on the histogram?

Perhaps the top is in, with a 'Six-Tuplet Top' or a 'Triple Double Top':



 
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