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Archive through November 09, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 09, 2010

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billt
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Post Number: 472
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Sunday, October 31, 2010 - 01:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As POG hits the $1360 level again, POG & ETF GOLD both appear to have triggered a buy on W%14 a week ago.

Perhaps an initial i/ii impulsive wave setup on both charts, with POG beginning a possible wave iii of 1 of a larger pattern north once again.

With QE2 being anywhere between $0.5t and $4.0t, the $USD will continue to be debased. Another 'flight to safety' rally in gold? Any correction of the markets will only soften the $AUD further.










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rdumas
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Sunday, October 31, 2010 - 03:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I was just looking at the weekly and monthly on ETF GOLD to see what they can tell us about the potential near term future for this stock.

We can see from the weekly that the stock is on a valid 'buy' signal and there is a potential for an invalid sell if the indicator happens to dip. Invalid signals still give turning points but often but not always) they are insignificant.





On the monthly chart we have had an invalid buy signal as the last signal which led to a bit of a rise in the stock price and we have the potential of an invalid sell signal if the indicator drops in value.




What is important to note in both the weekly and monthly charts is where the UBB is located. In the weekly it is at $142.48 and in the monthly it is at $146.74 neither of which is at the previous high of $150.00.

What it does suggest however is that you may be correct in suggesting that perhaps we are in a lower level wave 3 on the daily chart and that somewhere in the level range $142.48 ~$146.74 may be the termination level for this third wave. I propose the following higher level EW count for ETF GOLD for the last 6 year period. To the best of my knowledge there is nothing wrong with suggesting an expanding triangle (ending diagonal) for the 5th wave of an impulse wave. As you can see I am suggesting that the 5th wave of this impulse wave is extending (ie, sub-dividing).








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 07:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Below is a 15 year montly chart of the XJO.

You may recall that my current favoured scenario for the XJO is for the March 2009 rally to continue and perhaps make an attempt at reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2007/2008 plunge. That level is 5426.37. Note that the 200 month SMA is rising as is the 20 month SMA. Currently the 20 month SMA is cradling the price action. What is interesting is that the UBB is currently located at 5346.16 which whilst it isn't at the 61.8% Fib level discussed, it is getting towards that level.

I have also drawn some important buy and sell W%R triggers and note that the orange invalid trigger (because it cut above the -20% level) gave a better signal than the red valid trigger.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 09:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Early Morning Price Action on XJO

Looking at the price action for the XJO we have the UBB sitting at 4721 and a wave equality target of 4716. I would have a target for today's action somewhere between those limits at this stage.

We are on a clear buy signal on the W%R indicator method but with not a huge amount of upside left.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 11:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy for your thoughts on POG. Much appreciated.


Caldaro's POG EW count makes a very worthwhile offer.(page 10 on his public charts). He puts POG in a minute v of minor 3 of major 3. He has obviously given his count plenty of room to grow as his target is $3750 to complete this Supercycle.

I have adjusted his count slightly to put us in a subm' 3 of minute 3 of minor 3 of major 3. This last pullback didn't justify a minute correction, so perhaps it is at a lower level. (I loved it when all those 3's line up)





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rdumas
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 11:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The only caution that I would have is that there is still the possibility that wave 2 in my previous long term EW count may not yet have completed.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 12:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

You will find on a post some weeks ago that I have posted a chart with very similar projected pattern of trend as you have just made...

That was an EW analysis based on the cycles in play back then..

Cheers


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rdumas
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 12:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Andrew.

I'm assuming you are talking about my shorter term scenario rather than my longer term EW count. Do your cycles suggest that we are still on the way down for ETF GOLD and hence that short term EW count may be correct?


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 12:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,
The 8hr Cycles back then suggested upside in the short to medium term approx 136-140 range.
The weekly cycles suggested downside OR sideways patterns. Not sure which as yet

Cheers


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rdumas
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 12:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Andrew.

In that case I won't be tempted to re-enter just yet.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 01:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy/Bill,

This is the current picture int he AUDUSD using my own code Trading Bands and the W%R Indicator you huys have been working with...

At present price action is just about to enter the upper 3rd std deviation band and set up for a sell. We have no indication though from the HA candle OR the W%R signal lines that this is ready to happen just yet. I have drawn in 2 preliminary signal lines to give me some guidelines as I am looking for an intersection at the -20 to -30 level.

Let's see what happens.

My stop will be just above the 4th upper band and will allow myself 30 pips. My exit for the trade if it is triggered will be at the blue nominal level. That is a Risk to Reward of 3 times as I am looking for almost 100 pips

application/octet-stream
aud_1hr_w%r_work.xls (90.6 k)



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rdumas
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 01:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

It would be great if standard charing packages provided those 1/2/3 standard deviation curves as part of their offering.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Post Number: 474
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 01:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Guys -

My idea is the sell out at the end of this rally on the W%14.

Target 1 looked solid, but has perhaps has now ran out of time;
Target 2 is the more likely candidate;
Target 3 would come into contention if this XJO correction ($AUD weakness) extended for a few more weeks..

The 'Big Dubya' picked out the earlier tops pretty well too...




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skyhawk
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 01:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,
I looked everywhere fir years for charting packages that would do
this...
Could not find any so wrote my own....

About the best STD packages will do is displace your averages
back in time... But then you still have to estimate the lag of the average
My approach is not 100% as no one can predict the future, but I reckon
it's a good estimate and I am always trying to improve it...

Cheers


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gdd3
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 06:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Skyhawk,

Some amendments to your hourly chartt should shows what I think are the more useful 'start' points for you BUY/SELL W%R lines. Removed one of your but still think the other pink one is AOK!



Cheers
Dolphin


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skyhawk
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Monday, November 01, 2010 - 07:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks so much for your help Dolphin...
I am still trying to learn the ropes so to speak, and any help I get from one of those who who thought up of this technique is much appreciated...

Hopefully it turns out to be useful alongside the other tools we have

Cheers


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ehmu
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Tuesday, November 02, 2010 - 10:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew:

I'm not sure exactly what you're looking for, but you might want to check this out. This is what the world looks like to me when my motorcycle is missing on one cylinder, so it doesn't do much for me.

I got this chart from a free charting site. They do offer different subscription services, but you can chart the North American equities using this site. I used FVL which is a Value Line Index ETF. They call this an envelope channel, you can select your style and period of ma, and the number of std dev.

I also attached the GLD chart which looks more difficult to trade. My dentist just keeps buying gold when it pulls back (it's not like he needs more gold).

http://www.freestockcharts.com/








_____ n a m a s t e

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skyhawk
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Tuesday, November 02, 2010 - 11:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks ehmu,

yeah been there and done that. I think they use a Weighted Moving Average which out of all the MA's has the lowest lag effect. You can see that the peaks and troughs of the MA are still slightly out of sync with corresponding price peaks and troughs but still tradeable..

I use a Simple Moving Average and simply moving back 1/2 the span selected. I then use my imagination to estimate what the lag component should look like based on the price action during the lag period

Cheers


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skyhawk
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Tuesday, November 02, 2010 - 09:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

If this short term (8Hr bars) Cycles Analysis for the SPX is
correct, then we are about to start a correction here... Cycles suggest this is imminent and it could start tonight or tomorrow..Perhaps after a nudge to new highs?

Weekly and monthly cycles are still hard up (as shown in earlier cycles posts), and the larger trend will persist into next year..

Cheers


application/vnd.ms-excel
spx 8hr bars_cycles analysis_021110.xls (343.0 k)



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billt
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Wednesday, November 03, 2010 - 11:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew

Thanks for the chart...

From a time point of view, the wave length period on the 86 bar on the 8 hour chart looks to be around 80 days - does that suggest a 40 day trip to get to the bottom of the cycle?

From an intensity of correction, I assume you feel this correction will be a modest pull back due to the Weekly and Monthly cycles which are still 'hard up'.

Interesting to note that the SPX 8 hour 86 CMA Cycle Extended chart looks similar to the wave activity before the April correction (pre 300 on your chart), with the wave height in the +5 to -5 range - I assume that does not have much appeal considering the Weekly/Monthly charts?


Is that how you see it?

cheers

Bill


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rdumas
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Wednesday, November 03, 2010 - 02:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Things have been a bit hectic so haven't had time to post. The following is the way I see it at the moment. The chart below is a bit of an EW count for the XJO. Take no notice of the level labelling as I have just used some labelling that will give you an idea of what I have in mind.




My Delta cycles work expected a top yesterday (Melbourne Cup day) but it is obviously running late. Today may be it but who knows with the way the market surprises these days. Delta turn dates can slip. We are certainly setting ourselves up for a sell signal on the XJO if there is the start of a retrace.



According to my Delta work any retrace would only last a few days.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, November 03, 2010 - 07:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



First to post the Aussie VIX!

Bullish Falling Wedge....hmmmm!





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skyhawk
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Wednesday, November 03, 2010 - 07:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

Each point is in 8hr bars, so the wave period is thus 8* 80 bars=640 Hrs. The data in the chart is from the SP500 CFD's which are based on the SP500 Futures.. The CFD market trades close to 24Hrs and so 640Hrs/24Hrs = 27 Traded days approximately...

It's not a foregone conclusion that the index will pullback here, only my interpretation of what the cycles chart SUGGESTS..
Yes the weekly and monthly charts set the tone for the larger trend (see below)

Rudy mentioned Delta. I have a Delta analysis for the XAO which suggests a possibility of an interim peak any time now but the SPX Delta is a bit of a disparity with a peak not due till 3rd week of Nov

In the meantime have a look at this analysis form cycles technician Jim Curry. His analysis which is derived in a somewhat different style concurs with my long term and short term musings.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18778/larger-uptrend-firm-into-2011-minor-top-set-for-mid-november


application/vnd.ms-excel
spx_weekly_cycles analysis_031110.xls (406.0 k)

application/vnd.ms-excel
spx monthly_cycles analysis_031110.xls (291.3 k)



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ken
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Thursday, November 04, 2010 - 08:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For those not following the DJIA, it has made its highest closing high since the big fall 2 years ago.

Ken


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billt
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Thursday, November 04, 2010 - 03:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Andrew for the charts, and the link to Jim Curry's piece. For those that haven't seen the article the short term summary clarified the ideas:

"Once the 90-day wave actually tops in the days/weeks ahead, the SPX should see it's largest percentage decline since coming off the 8/27/10 bottom of 1039.70. The way that path could play out in would be a high around the 1220-1230 level (plus or minus) with this cycle, then to be followed by a decline back to the 1150-1160 range on it's following downward phase. Since we have yet to see any meaningful retracement since coming off the August bottom, the assumption is that whatever decline that is seen with this wave will be an Elliott wave 4, which should come in the form of a 3-wave affair. This cycle is technically due to bottom in the late-November or early-to-mid December timeframe, and, once complete, should give way to new highs again into January, 2011 (i.e., wave 5), with the 180-day target to 1243.16 - 1286.36 acting as a magnet."

Curry mentions a more bullish outcome to the 2011 high, as an alternative.

Rudy has the forthcoming correction on a slightly different count, but the outcome would be similar. Your timing extends the period to the new high to the April period.



thanks again Andrew

Bill


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rdumas
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Friday, November 05, 2010 - 08:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 EW COUNT UPDATE

Many months ago as would be remembered by readers of my market wrap and more recently on this thread I proposed the EW count for the S&P500 that had been formulated by the 4M's on the basis of their various methodologies. Our EW count flew in the face of some of the views of some of the foremost EW forecasters on the planet and definitely it went against the views of most of the fundamentalists that voiced their opinions. Last night the S&P500 breached the previous interim market high set on the 26th April 2010.

Our proposal was that the rally that started in March 2009 had not yet completed but that we were purely in a correction to that rally. We suggested that the market would go higher than the April 2010 peak and would eventually form a new interim market high for this GFC sometime early next year. At present we believe that this new market high will be put in place sometime in the first half of 2011.

It was our view (and still is) that once this peak is achieved, the market will undergo the final wave Circle C of this GFC which will bring a substantially new market low beyond that achieved in March 2009. This low will probably be reached in 2013~2014. The EW count proposed is shown in the chart below. The only other pattern that is possible in my view is that of a Triangle. In this scenario it would mean that the March 2009 low would not be taken out by wave Circle C but that there would be an additional two waves developed thus forming a contracting triangle shape. The effect of this pattern would be that whilst the market would not fall as far as the more bearish scenario it would however extend the length of time for the GFC to come to completion. The reason for this is that a contracting triangle pattern is a time consuming pattern.




Currently the S&P500 is in a wave 3 rally of the final leg up. Now it is possible that the wave 3 level represented in the chart below will need to be revised later but at this stage we should be very close to the peak of this wave 3 rally. The following chart gives a possible scenario.



Now it is possible that in spite of reaching a possible double top in the SPX that there may be another day or two of upward move left. The next week or two should see a move down to the zones indicated by the blue lines on the chart. Because the second wave of this impulse wave was 'sharp' it is possible that we may see a 'flattish' complex pattern develop for wave 4.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, November 05, 2010 - 09:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy

I assume your wave 4 target is at the 38.2% fib and the 19 Jan 10 high @ c.1151.

If the correction heads below 1129 (the top of wave 1) a recount would be needed. The 50% fib sits at 1130.

An alternative count that would still potentially seek out a new 2011 high would be an ABC pattern. A quick trip wave c to c.1010 ('a la' wave a in duration and price), then a 'Santa Rally' to take us back to current levels or higher. This might create a Triple Top before the final cull.

Against this ABC count is Andrew's short term cycle analysis which points to a more modest pull back in the days/weeks ahead.

One weird coincidence is that this current rally is now precisely the same duration and price of the rally that preceded the 26 April 2010 20% correction (light green line on chart)- it even had a 3 waver correction concluding on 5 February, which again was identical to the current action. Will it produce the similar outcome?






POG outpacing $AUD at the moment, so Etf Gold is set to go to 4 month highs - POG looks to be in an impulsive wave higher now, hopefully the $AUD will come off a little in this correction to push Etf Gold to new highs...


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rdumas
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Friday, November 05, 2010 - 09:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



How High Will The Wave 3 Go On The S&P500?

A couple of reasons why I believe that we are close to that wave 3 extreme is

1) we are at the top of the channel that it has been trading in.




and 2) we are close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level of the 2007/2008 plunge.






I would find it difficult to believe that it will go sailing through that level without thinking twice about it.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, November 05, 2010 - 11:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Yes I would be targeting a 38.2% retrace however it is possible that it could be shallower than that if the pattern does become a complex 'flattish' pattern. So a 23.6% retrace is also a possibility. So 1178.4 (23.6%) and 1151.89 (38.2%) is on the cards. Barry believes that 1156.61 is on the cards so either way it could be fairly substantial if the 23.6% level gets sliced through.

The problem with you larger ABC correction is that whilst your B might top out in March 2011 it would require another wave C to complete the pattern. That completed pattern would then be the wave (B) in my EW count. This would then require another leg up to complete a wave (C) to finish off the March 2009 rally. Based on the proportionality of your chart that would put the peak for wave (C)/circle B sometime late in 2011 which is way too late from a cycle analysis perspective.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, November 05, 2010 - 12:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What's the definition of unsustainable?

Answer: BHP continuing to move up.





BHP led the move up and the elastic bands are now fully stretched. Those gaps will undoubtedly be closed and that will initiate two 'sell' signals on the W%R indicator. I would anticipate a quick fall to below $42 would be on the cards.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, November 05, 2010 - 04:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Poor labelling on my previous chart.

We have traded sideways between 1000 and 1220 for over 14 months. I would not be surprised to see another 6 to 8 months of similar activity before the final crash. I find it hard to see what has changed to make the market trade much beyond this range for the months ahead.

If we do have a more significant pull back, red wave c could complete in December. Red a = Red c.

Blue wave c (and black wave B) to complete to a new high in early 2011, before the final demise of black wave C. Blue wave c could extend much higher before the capitulation. The link Andrew provided yesterday to Curry's work gave a Cycle Analysis theory to a potential higher 4 year cycle peak.

Just a variation to the theme:





What might support this continuing sideways corrective move:

- The Fed has pump primed $100b into the system per month over the past two years, and will continue to do this for at least another year. I am not sure why the market would want to push beyond this range due to QE;
- GDP has fallen to 2% or less, and could easily revert negative in the next quarter. Remember it was 5% at Q4 last year;
- Unemployment does not look to be improving anytime soon;
- We now have GOP in play in the House, and they are less likely to continue the 'stimulus'
- PEs are beginning to look fully priced, based upon a 'prolonged low growth' outlook

The concern is that how long can the US markets sustain this 'Alice in Wonderland' rally? When you read what Greenspan, Hoenig, Roubini and Rosenberg are thinking - it does make you worry...

Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, casting his seventh straight dissent at the Fed meeting, the most at consecutive regular policy sessions since 1955. “The risks of additional securities purchases outweighed the benefits,” and the “continued high level of monetary accommodation” may eventually “destabilize the economy,”

Alan Greenspan said the U.S. is involved in a "dangerous game"

U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini "The U.S. economy is a "fiscal train wreck" waiting to happen that risks ushering in a period of stagnation featuring by minimal growth, high unemployment and deflationary pressure”

David Rosenberg “it would really not take much to get GDP into negative terrain”

You do not have to look too far to see where the next 'bubble' is - you're looking at it!

Back to the chart, the nature of the price action as we correct south will tell us which path we are on...my ABC pattern will require some substantial 2-3% down days over the next few weeks.

Lots of 'Wave 2' notations being moved on the Prechter camp today - wow.. they have had a lot of chart work to do!


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rdumas
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Saturday, November 06, 2010 - 06:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Your revised labelling is much more believable than the first attempt and is a definite possibility. I have always maintained that the Prechter camp would have to revise their labelling to be more in line with ours and as expected, it is happening. The main difference (and it is extremely significant) is that they are calling the new peak a wave 2 whereas we are calling a primary wave B.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Sunday, November 07, 2010 - 07:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



In the middle of last week I posted some short term Cycles Analysis that suggested that the SP500 was approaching the
peaks in various cycles and that the short trend would be at risk.
I was looking for late last week as a possible high, but it looks like it maybe another week before the blow off completes.
These cycles merely SUGGEST we could be coming into a peak not precision timing. We use them more to help us stay on the right side of the market.

The analysis by Jim Curry suggest likewise and I thought I would post some Delta Cycles Charts that Rudy and I use to try and get a better fix for when wave 3 will complete here.
I should stress here these Delta Cycles are fixed time cycle
analysis and are used to show up possible turns in TIME not price, so the Y axis (price) should not be considered.

The short term ITD cycles for both the XAO-SPX show probable
top for these indices between the 15th-21st November. I should note however that one of the rules with delta is that
if a cycle of larger degree is expected (like in this case),
then the terminal cycle point always arrives "on time" or "early" and never later than expected, so this further strengthens the case for a top in our date range. This date range also fully concurs with the suggested time frame made in Jim's analysis.

The Medium Long Term analysis for both the XAO and SPX suggests a top of this bull run in the Feb/March 2011 time frame. I don't want to say this is a foregone conclusion, because there is also a Delta possibility for a June 2011 top as well, but at present we have tentatively marked Feb/June on the calendar.

As we approach this time frame we will have a better idea as to whether the trend will persist or not.

Cheers


application/vnd.ms-excel
sp500 delta cycles analysis_061110.xls (451.1 k)

application/vnd.ms-excel
xao delta cycles analysis_061110.xls (444.4 k)

application/vnd.ms-excel
delta cycles analysis medium long term xao_spx_061110.xls (443.9 k)



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rash
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Sunday, November 07, 2010 - 10:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Apparently, the uberest of the uberBears just converted to a Bull.

I wonder ... since Prechter's view is that when the last Bull turns to a Bear, or the last Bear turns Bullish ... whether it's time to go in the opposite direction.

From: http://pugsma.wordpress.com/

Sat Nov 6th, 7:45 am EST: I have just been informed that Elliott Wave International (EWI) has changed their Big Picture wave count to match mine!!! EWI now has the SP-500 in a multi-year cyclical bull market. They have now labeled the wave from 667 (March 2009) to 1220 (April 2010) as a 5-wave impulsive wave. Then they labeled the wave from 1220 (April 2010) to 1011 (July 2010) as a 3-wave corrective. Now they have labeled the move from 1011 to 1227 as the first 3 waves of a 5-wave impulse. The difference between our the counts now is only that EWI thinks this is a large A-B-C (5-waves, 3-waves, 5-waves) and not a P1-P2-P3-P4-P5 as I have it. So by their count the C-wave will reach either 1353 if C=0.62A next year or 1565 if C=A sometime in 2012. For my count that will just be the end of P3 and we’ll have a P4 and P5 to levels even higher than 1565. EWI basically has the SP-500 in cyclical bull market now and I have the SP-500 in a secular bull market. EWI has been telling their subcribers to get short since the SP-500 hit 1018 in late August 2009. I have been telling my subscribers to get long since then. Amazing that EWI has done a 180 degree turn as of Nov 4th, 2010 over 1 year later.

So, my Big Picture count has been correct since I first put it out via private e-mail to friends in August 2009 and on this blog in October 2009. Myself and Tony Caldaro (the Elliott Wave Lives On) were the first two E-wavers to have this count. I’m not sure who had it first. But it does not matter. What a great week it was last week !!! :-)


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gdd3
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Sunday, November 07, 2010 - 04:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rash,

There is a lot to like about "Pug's" EWC...very hard to fault. If correct, the next little retracement represents the safest entry levels, in T & P(once we have a clear wave[2]-P3 in process), for the coming years(out to the end of this decade according to his 'big-picture' count) as we will be commencing wave[3]-P3-V! This holds if any retracement from near here(1229-1251) is supported above the 1129(wave1-[1]-P3)level.

My only real question mark on his count is that his wave[2]-P3 time frame(3months duration) relative to his anticipated wave[4]-P3 time frame(3 years) seems 'out of wack'. This makes me wonder if his wave[2]-P3 is only a wave(a) of an (abc) where we are nearing the top of wave(b)-[2]-P3 and have a leg down(c)-[2]-P3 to near 1000 from here 1st! For this to be correct our near-term high couldn't go above 1231 for the move from the 1040 low to be a wave(c) of a wave(abc) first started at the 1011(July low) as wave(c) would exceed 1.618 x wave(a).

One thing is for sure, basis his count or my 'minor' possible variation to his count, the next down leg should provide the best/safest 'long-term' entry point for the remainder of the decade?????

I would love him to be correct but it is difficult to have such a strong long-term view in the present climate therefore placing the majority of your hard earned cash in now and HOLD isn't on for me. I, personally will still stick to my 'one leg at a time' approach until the market action verifies his 'extreme' Bullishness....1129 holding any pullback over the coming months, or in the case of my alternative P2 swing low, 1011 holding!

Thanks, Rash, for placing his link up...all very interesting.

Dolphin


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billt
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Sunday, November 07, 2010 - 06:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys


I'm happy to trade a leg at a time too Dolphin.

There are numerous longer term EW Counts doing the rounds, but I cannot believe any can be held with great conviction.

The Western economies are in such a financial mess it would be difficult to say that stock markets will rally to infinity and beyond at this point in time. However, it would be equally silly to suggest the Western World cannot pull itself back from the brink and somehow save themselves from ultimate doom...To suggest in 2010 that we know how this is all going to pan out it a little indulgent - it is novel to 'play the game' trying to assess what 2012 will look like, but to do it with total conviction as some EW'ers out in cyberspace do is really a little childish.

The combined thoughts and skill of the 4M'ers are invaluable to the task in hand in trying to plot the immediate course over the next few months. Being open to all possible EW counts is the key.

Identifying the tops and bottoms of these legs is really the only thing of real interest, and evaluating the turning points obviously the goal.


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gdd3
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Sunday, November 07, 2010 - 11:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BillT,

Couldn't agree with you more, especially..."Identifying the tops and bottoms of these legs is really the only thing of real interest, and evaluating the turning points obviously the goal."

After re-reading my post above I can see that some would think that (at this point in time)I agreed with Pug's long-term(2019/2020)timeframe and price goal. Well, that simply not the case! Since November, 2007 I have been concentrating only on what the next few week's may hold and adjusting my "trading" account exposure accordingly! Very few of my trading positions have been held for more than that over this period...in and out of the same stock on numerous occasions but definitely not "BUY and HOLD"...that time I guess will come but I personally don't see it just yet although some sectors may be hinting this.

Re: Pug's EWC...I simply was saying that from an EW perspective/(rule)point of view his 'count' could be plausible; the timing associated with his 'forward' count labelling is dubious. Hence my comment about the time duration of his "wave[2]-P3 time frame(3months duration) relative to his anticipated wave[4]-P3 time frame(3 years) seemingly 'out of wack'".

As you said, Billt... "I'm happy to trade a leg at a time."

Cheers
Dolphin}


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rdumas
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Monday, November 08, 2010 - 07:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Whiteowl,

Re the following question that you raised in the tipping competition thread regarding NTU.

"Hey Rudi .. your EW postings have got me thinking ..
Is this a W4 abc unfolding ? "


I have included a chart of NTU for the purposes of discussion below.

The first point that should be made is that not all stocks are suitable for EW analysis. For EW analysis to work it requires that the stock or index has a truly representative participation of every conceivable view available in the market place as this allows for the extreme views on either side of the bell curve to cancel each other out so that the 'mass mind' comes to the fore and thereby is truly demonstrated.

This is why indexes and currencies generally work well as they are traded by a huge spectrum of views. Some stocks definitely work whereas others don't. I find that the proof of the pudding is in the eating so if there are obvious EW patterns being displayed in a stock of interest then by all means use EW analysis as part of your tool box of methodologies on that particular stock.

The direct answer to your original question is that in my view the answer is "no" based on what I see in the chart below and assuming that the stock was a legitimate EW type of stock.

The reasons for this are:

1) your question implies that the rally prior to your wave 4 would be wave 3 and this wave has an overlapping wave pattern which is not consistent with a valid wave 3.

2) what would be considered to be your wave 4 intrudes into the trading range of your wave 1 which is illegal.

First of all I would doubt that EW can be strictly applied to a stock of this size. I personally would not use EW on stocks of this size other than using "personality types" defined in EW analysis such as whether the pattern a corrective or impulsive.

For example I use the concept of wave equality in abc corrective patterns constantly in any analysis of stocks of any size and will use EW labeling purely to identify the waves that I am looking at.

For example, even though I believe that EW analysis is not strictly useful in this particular stock by applying labels to the chart I can more easily see repeating types of patterns in the stock.

Note for example the previous abc pattern had a wave c that only retraced about 50% of wave b. The current pattern is creating a wave c that has retraced a lot further. To me this indicates that whilst the pattern may appear to be repeating, the trend in fact is losing momentum. So for me it is a bit of a danger signal that any future bounce may be smaller in range than expected.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, November 08, 2010 - 09:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin and Bill,

Couldn't agree more guys which is why I have been playing the long side and pulling out or rallies when I felt they were coming to an end. It is heartening though to see the 'big guys in EW' like Prechter and McHugh finally getting around to the same wave count that we have had for months.

PUGs and Anthony Caldaro are also smiling now because the trend is up thus supporting their bullish stance. I am pretty confident however that late next year they won't be feeling quite as good about their wave counts as they are now because it is only after we start heading south with gusto in what the 4M's believe is the final multi-year primary wave C that their 'new bull market' scenario will look decidedly weak. They don't have the advantage of the fantastic cycle analysis that Andrew does to steer them in the right direction.

In the meantime we'll just continue to take what the market is offering us on a plate on a rally by rally basis.

Just further to this weekend's market wrap. You will recall that I am calling this rally in the SPX that started on the 27th August as wave 3 of Intermediate wave (C) of Primary wave Circle B.

My XJO ITD Delta studies suggests that the correction that I believe starts this week will only be of short duration (ie, 4~6 days duration). This could point to the fact that we may not yet have completed the above mentioned wave 3 and that we are only about have a lower level wave 4 event and that after we get the smaller wave 5 completing we will get a higher level wave 4 occurring.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Monday, November 08, 2010 - 02:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi, Dolphin

I'm a bit dubious, at this stage, of Mr Pug's long-term view. I put his link up so that anyone with an interest can get an alternative view to the never-ending Ending Diagonal counts so beloved of the Prechter acolytes over the past few months.

And, also, of course to bring y'all up-to-date that Mr Prechter (and now Bob McHugh) have finally recognised that the March 09 to April 10 rally had 5 legs and have adjusted their counts.

Included in Mr Pug's piece are new potential highs for Pollyanna of 1353 or 1565. I do NOT know whether they are his interpretation of what EWI is now saying, or whether he is quoting exactly what EWI is saying.

In either case, my arithmetic using the same methodology gives numbers of 1452 and 1664.

And all of that aside, one-leg-at-a-time is definitely the way to go.

Bon chance - RA


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billt
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Monday, November 08, 2010 - 02:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting to look how the $USD is placed at the moment on the longer term charts.

There is a possibility of a wave e to target the 88 level which may push the markets into a larger correction in the short term, before we make a market rally to a 2011 high with the $USD crashing through the wedge to <76.

Alternatively the abcde could be about to complete with 'a' starting at 70.70 in March 08. If 'e' has completed perhaps a 'wobble' during a small market correction, and then the recommencement of a decline in the $USD whilst the markets rally to the potential 2011 high.

Both options look possible...





Hey Rudy, the majority of the EW counts seem now to be in the 5 wave count from the 1010 low. The 5/3/5 off the March 09 low looks pretty convincing.

Other than being in a 5 waver, the only other option is a version of the ABC count I posted a few days back, with a bigger pull back now before a 2011 high;

Any other SPX EW count that you have seen which we should be considering at this point?

Bill


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rash
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Monday, November 08, 2010 - 02:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahem*

I had a blond moment! Rudy has pointed out I transposed a one for a zero in the starting point of my arithmetic. It's the problem of having an analog brain in a digital world.

Mr Pug's numbers are correct. Mine are wrong.

Ciao - RA


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billt
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Monday, November 08, 2010 - 02:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I am watching the $VIX at the moment...that bullish falling wedge has been in play for several weeks - if it does pop through to the north, it might have a bit more bang to support a bigger pull back in the markets. (ABC Count?)

A more modest market correction (5 waver) would have the VIX continuing its downward path in a very much tighter 'choke', before a 2011 high was established.






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rdumas
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Monday, November 08, 2010 - 02:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

My EW count for the SPX is what I put into my last weekend's market wrap document. Just to show you that the 4M's have been talking about this scenario for some time, here is a cut and paste from my market wrap document of the 9th July 2010.




The following EW count for the SPX is the one in this weekend's market wrap.




I think that you will admit that it looks strikingly similar.

Anyway for me this is the most likely EW count at this stage so it is the one that I am focussing on. Target levels based on the range of wave (A) of Primary wave Circle B would give the following potential target levels for the termination level for Intermediate wave (C) and Primary wave Circle B. Now if the range of wave (A) was 1219.8 - 666.79 = 553.01 then the following Fibonacci target levels would apply to the range of wave (C) using a starting level for wave (C) of 1010.91.

50.0% of range of wave (A) would give termination level of 1287.42

61.8% of range of wave (A) would give termination level of 1352.67

78.6% of range of wave (A) would give termination level of 1445.58

100.0% of range of wave (A) would give termination level of


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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whiteowl
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Tuesday, November 09, 2010 - 12:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudi
Thanks for your NTU EW post, which I duly read.
And ahem ... it got smashed today !
Fortunately not holding $
I hope you realise that postings from you long term IC guys are truly appreciated by me and hopefully all readers.
I will read a lot more EW theory before I make any more EW predictions.
My only other request Rudi is that many of your charts end up with a bid RED arrow DOWN and a ?
Can you please post some with a big GREEN arrow UP and a 'for sure'
Just Joking
Thanks
Jeff


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rdumas
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Hi Jeff,

hehehehehe. I'm glad that you are getting something out of our posts on this thread. By the way my name is spelt with a 'y' in Rudy (not important because a rose is still a rose.....)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Tuesday, November 09, 2010 - 09:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey "Night" Owl,

RE: EW Counting(particularly on Stocks); The essence to remember about Rudy's post(No. 4295) is contained in his sentence...

"First of all I would doubt that EW can be strictly applied to a stock of this size. I personally would not use EW on stocks of this size other than using "personality types" defined in EW analysis such as whether the pattern a corrective or impulsive.

Identifying "WAVE PERSONALITY" has always been the most valuable/useful Elliott Wave Theory tool in my opinion!

Having said that, enjoy your research on the EW Principle; there are many excellent websites to refer to when you do your search BUT always remember(from a Trader's perspective) that its is the identification of the "current" wave personality that is of essence!

Rudy, I'm the guilty party that gave you 3 stars for your response to Whiteowls question...whilst not excellent definitly worthy of some merit!

Cheers
Dolphin }}


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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 09, 2010 - 10:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Dolphin,

I have to admit that I didn't even notice that someone had put a star rating on my post. You would no doubt know what many of us think of star ratings both on this thread and the ODB thread.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 09, 2010 - 10:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Regarding my post 4297 in which I posted a chart out of my weekend market wrap of the 9th July. Those who looked at the EW count that I had on that chart would have noticed that it was not entirely correct as I had incorrectly labeled Intermediate wave (B) as well as its ABC sub waves.

As a refresher, I repost that chart again.




The main reason for posting the above chart was to show that the 4M's had been on the right track in terms of the general pattern in play as early as July.

To bring that chart up to day I post a revised version below.




As mentioned in previous posts I am doubtful about a significant retrace at this time as I suspect that wave 3 of Intermediate wave (C) is not yet complete. Even when it does complete however, for the above count to remain valid any wave 4 retrace would not go below the termination level of wave 1 which was at 4598.7.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 09, 2010 - 10:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



W%R14 Sell Signal Generated on XJO


We got a clear and valid W%R14 sell signal on the XJO yesterday as can be seen below on the daily chart below. As Dolphin has pointed out in the past, the -40% and -60% levels can often act as a support for a bounce and if my view of a short retrace (both in time and price) is correct then this is a likely outcome.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
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