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Archive through November 24, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 24, 2010

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skyhawk
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Monday, November 15, 2010 - 08:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No probs Eagle...

In terms of application I mentioned patterns because too many E Wavers focus too much on the count.
I like to look at the patterns first and then append the count, seems to work out better for me that way.
I find that keeping application as simple as possible in terms of those basic rules and guidelines works best. If I can't make head or tails of a pattern and identify it in terms of those basic rules/guidelines I LEAVE IT and find a chart or market that does conform.

Take your time with EW and try to look at as many markets as possible. The easiest EW pattern to identify occur in very liquid markets like commodities, currencies and some indices. Very rarely will you find textbook patterns in individual stocks sometimes in the really liquid ones..

The ideal high probability situation is to have your prime and alternate counts ( you may have up to 3 counts in total)
all suggesting the same outcome.
Ofcourse sometimes you maybe hard pressed to find textbook EW patterns easily. In such situations you might have 3 possible patterns and not really sure which one is in play.
That is where other methods can help narrow down the possibilities and throw the odds in your favor.

I like you am a part time trader and work a full time job but in only took a few years to really understand the best way to apply EW for me. It just takes perseverance

Send me a PM and I can send some extra info re application to you if you like
Cheers

(Message edited by skyhawk on November 15, 2010)


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billt
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 08:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bearish Black Count still looks possible, now presenting a wave '3 of (iii) of iii of 3' possible position which may turn to a more traditional looking impulse wave.... Big gap down in the next couple of days required, otherwise this count will run out of steam. 'Sharp' pattern configuration still represented, so I'll keep adding the black numbers for now.

The alternative red wave iv count has us completing tonight, or the completion of an initial wave a of a complex corrective abc move which fits better with the cycle timing of another week or two to go.





$USD broke to the upside last night, closing above the MA(50) on the Daily - first time in 2 months.







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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 10:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew/Eagle,

As would be expected Andrew and I see things much the same way but we do all learn things differently. Our greatest point of agreement is that pattern recognition is more important than the wave count. Dolphin has often mentioned that he uses wave personalities as a way of understanding an evolving pattern which is much the same as what Andrew and I are suggesting. Don't ever try to force a wave count when you can't see one as it will more than likely be wrong anyway.

An example of this is the current EW counts that I have for the S&P500 and XJO. I always follow both indices because very often when one of the indices presents a very clear wave count, the other is far from clear. The S&P500 EW count at present is quite clear whereas the XO EW count is not so clear because of the overlapping rally patterns.

In this case I would tend to focus on the S&P500 more than the XJO as the count is more likely to be correct.

Probably the only point that I disagree with in Andrew's initial post is his comment "except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle".

In my experience diagonal triangles are not a rare event as they often occur in wave 1's (leading diagonals) and wave 5's (ending diagonals) and as Prechter says in his book, these diagonals almost always produce wave 4's that intrude into the price range of wave 1's.

I use the Frost and Prechter book Elliott Wave Principle as my main text book but my method of learning is to look under every rock and nock and cranny in order to saturate my mind with the topic of interest. For this reason I like the detailed rules and guidelines that are found at the following link :http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/1446-rules-guidelines-elliott-wave.html

I don't try to memorise them but when I am studying a particular pattern I will refer the rules and guidelines that relate to the specific pattern of interest. Whilst these rules and guidelines were not part of Elliott's original rules you will find that even Prechter believes that Elliott wasn't perfect in some of his interpretations and there is no doubt that as time goes on, the knowledge of EW Principles expands as more great minds delve into its mysteries.

Perhaps one of the most useful tools that I have is my EW Cheat Sheet which I have posted previously but will do so again because I find it so useful. I have laminated a copy of this Cheat Sheet and always have it close by to refresh my memory about specific EW patterns.

application/pdf
cheat_sheet[1].pdf (115.7 k)



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Looks like you've got the field covered in your last three posts. You've really got the hang of it mate.

Looking at the 90 minute chart below the SPX is definitely moving in a descending channel at present (refer red lines) but it is coming up to some logical support levels as well as the W%R14 indicator suggesting that we are getting towards the oversold area. A move down to the 1180~1190 would find some very strong support and that would be still a mile away from threatening the wave 1 price range so I am still mildly confident about the wave count remaining valid at this stage. Mind you there is still a lot of time between now and the period of the 22nd to end of November so anything can happen.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 11:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO and Bollinger Bands

One of the indicators that we've been playing with recently is a combination of 3 Bollinger Bands set at 1, 2 and 3 standard deviations. When seeing the market in this context it doesn't look bearish at all to me. The price action has been hanging around the 20 day SMA and spending most of its time above it.

As you can see I've got my W%R14 indicator primed for my next buy signal.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 12:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks for the ew cheat sheet rudy, appreciate it




_________




_____ n a m a s t e

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skyhawk
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 04:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

Is this cheat sheet something you put together/summarized yourself?

If so, where did these rules/guidelines/observations originate from?

Cheers


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billt
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 05:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Just getting ready for an entry on the long side in the coming weeks for my ETFs.

Interesting to note that in the last rally although the SPX rallied 18% these US ETFs nearly doubled in value.

*TNA 95% US Small Caps
*TYH 93% US Tech
*SOXL 109% Semiconductors
*ERX 100% Energy
*LBJ 90% Latin America
*EDC 83% Emerging Markets

My core investments will be in TNA & TYH, but I may add SOXL & ERX into the mix as well.

TYH & ERX managed to maintain the SPX count (wave 2 by a whisker), so they look set to fly again in wave 5.

TNA & SOXL just completed a huge wave 1...(Rudy, I assume I will just accept that SPX Wave 5 termination, will terminate these impulsive counts on TNA & SOXL as well...? Just one of those oddities..)





Great 'Sell' signals on the W%14....



Looking at some of the Aussie Small Caps, only a few exceeded these performance levels, with considerably more volatility and volume concerns:


BDR Beadell 140%
BMN Bannerman 118%
BUT Bright Star 118%
CSD ConsTin Mines 800%
ENR Encounter 360%
GTE Great Western 110%
*LYC Lynas 112%
NTU Northern Uranium 380%
PEK Peak 385%
*SDL Sundance 130%
SSM Service Stream 104%
VMS Venture 105%

LYC & SDL are ASX 300 stock, so I might follow those as well in daylight hours....

What 'horses' will you all be on for Wave 5 guys??

bill


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billt
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 06:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Rudy

W%14 'buy' trigger dates:

SPX: 24th & 27th November

XJO: 23rd & 30th November

Does that align with your analysis?

Bill


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p3t3
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 04:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Quite a slide happening tonight, in tandem with the US$ strengthening and copper down >5%, oil down >2.5%.

Might be time to consider some more bearish outcomes, as the crowded 'short US$ long "stuff"' trade is unwound in size and speed. Hard to see any good news on the horizon, now that the size of QE2 has been made public.

p3t3


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ehmu
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 04:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 06:41 pm:

Interesting to note that in the last rally although the SPX rallied 18% these US ETFs nearly doubled in value.




Hi Bill:

My plans somewhat differ from yours.

I like TZA rather than TNA and only during downtrends because the foreign exchange complements the trade. Our currency behaves in a similar manner to yours with a resource based economy.

I am including a chart that compares your currency, SPY and TNA. Looks like Australian currency has gained on the US$ by about 15% ( this is to the detriment of the TNA trade, and makes the SPY trade a loser). I observe that timing has a big impact on the juiced etf's as well, it wouldn't take much of a misjudgement to lose the advantage of the increased volatility.

I am monitoring Canadian mining companies, with a plan to accumulate on a deep pull back. This was a plan that you put forward a couple of months ago, citing a way to play the gold, silver and other precious metals.






_____ n a m a s t e

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ehmu
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 06:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 07:03 pm:

SPX: 24th & 27th November




I don't rank with others for sure, but have a couple of thoughts on the W% timing technique.

I was getting nov29 on multiple time frames for several market etf's (spy, dia, $us, etc.). In the recent high volatility, my comparisons are now indicating the week 22-26, which might make more sense with the accelerated volatility.

My W% readings have gone oversold overnight, so I'm relying to some degree on support around 1148 on SPX at this point, as a reference.

The us markets close early on friday the 26th, so this might also have an affect on the trading decision. Point being, if the move hasn't begun friday, it is possible that there would be a gap on the opening monday that could erase significant gains when trading the juiced etf's.







_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 06:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

That Cheat Sheet was given to me early in my EW studies by a guy who was heavily involved in EW from a software perspective. The spreadsheet is highly informative and even has some details on it that I have not yet even deciphered.

To me it looks like a partial functional specification for writing an EW software package.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 06:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Some great comments about your US stocks as well as the Aussie stocks. There sure is money to be made if you have the nerve to handle very highly leveraged stocks. You ride those spirited rodeo horses well whereas I am more suited to the ones found on a carousel.

I don't have W%R14 turn dates for either of the indices as I just put in the trend lines and wait for the buy signals to be generated. I tend to use the Delta stuff more determining the likely period during which a turn may take place and then wait for the W%R14 signal to be generated.

By the way I will be out all day today so will miss out on all of the fun in the market.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 07:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete,

Re your comment "Might be time to consider some more bearish outcomes, as the crowded 'short US$ long "stuff"' trade is unwound in size and speed. Hard to see any good news on the horizon, now that the size of QE2 has been made public."

The scenario 2 for the XJO from my weekend market wrap and shown below is as bearish as I feel it necessary to be at present. Word has it that Bill has pulled some strings in Europe and the US in order to win the E'Dubya award of the week this week. The lengths that some people go to is incredible.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Thanks Rudy for confirming that some of that some of the stuff on the Cheat Sheet has you still baffled (it looked like rocket science to me)...but the Sheet is very useful.

Thanks Hal on your TNA thoughts. I do get hit by the appreciating Aussie Dollar in the bull runs playing my USD ETFs. I take the view that they have enough bark in them to bear the pain of the bight. It is a dream on a bear run, so it evens itself out...

Hey p3t3, SPX overnight's pullback has an impulsive feel about it, but it could still fizzle out to a complex abc move. Some worthy economists from State Street are suggesting that this Quarters US GDP figures could push up again to 2.75%. That may give the market what it needs to get a wave 5 charging forward at some point, onto the 4G's 2011 high.

Here is my latest EW thought (just before the close), still a 'sharp' correction at the moment.

Bearish Black Count looks convincing! Perhaps we have more of the (iii) of iii of 3 to go before it completes.

The Red count has several (w) & (x) 's in it to make it work....it doesn't look corrective at this point?





We are now well in Randall's Martian area of 1170 +/-10. Pollyanna's next target is 1136.

Fibs @1155 (38%) and @1133 (50%).

MA (50) on the Daily @ 1165

1129.24 is the deal breaker. MA (100) & (200) are below this level.

VIX finally broke out of its multi month falling bearish wedge to the upside....a decisive exit!


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billt
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 07:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



'E'Dubya Award of the Week' - forget that Rudy!!

It will be 2010 'The 5th Musketeer Award' !!

(....but I'm not discounting that red abc as yet)


Here's US Fear at the moment:




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billt
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 08:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry about the text overlapping..

There are three possible W%14 alignments for 27 November (saturday) at this point which seems to fit the cycle turning points. The other alignment is 24 November.

The 'sharp' correction over the past two days will need to be maintained to hit the 1010 level by 26/29 November...




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rdumas
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 08:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bullish SPX EW Count Still Valid

This will be my last post until late this afternoon as I have to ride off into the sunset. Whilst things are looking pretty bearish at present the current EW count for the SPX in my market wrap remains on track. 1129.24 needs to be breached before it is invalidated.

Currently the LBB is located at 1147.64 which gives us a little lee way. The sharpness of a pattern is determined by the overall pattern (ie, what is the range of wave 'b' versus the range of wave 'a') rather than what the first wave looks like even though it certainly does have a 'sharpish look about it'.





Note also that my Delta work suggests a low sometime between the 22nd and end of November. That does not mean that the 4 wave will be completed at that low. For example a Triangle pattern and some Flat patterns often have their lowest point at the termination level of wave 'a'.

Have fun today folks.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 12:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

If this is the developer of the software that I am thinking of,
the software is not very good.
I say this because if it is the same one I bought it 7-8 years ago
and found it to be not useful...
I am sure they have improved it since then in conjunction with
Worldwide statistical analysis of patterns using the rules and
guidelines in your cheat sheet, but I doubt it will be successful.

EW is just one of those techniques where pattern analysis/recognition
can only be processed successfully by the human brain.
The best computer is the one in between your ears...

This software as such will most likely not be successful as there
have been many before it that have failed...


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p3t3
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 01:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahhh,

the 20:20 clarity of hindsight :



Lower boundary of the channel is under pressure today, and the bandwidth is showing signs of expansion.

Will we see an approach towards the Lower BB, as in early July and late August? Neither signalled the end of the rally.


rdumas wrote on Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 08:04 am:

The scenario 2 for the XJO from my weekend market wrap and shown below is as bearish as I feel it necessary to be at present.




Yep, agreed, possible approach towards 4200 certainly looks to me to be bearish enough at this stage. Would leave plenty of room for a Santa Claus rally


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billt
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 05:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Will this Wave 4 hold?

The correction over the past week has affected a number of leading indices much more severely than the 4.6% correction on the SPX.

The September/October rally was led by Commodities and Technology.

The DB Commodity Index (DBC) has plummeted 10% from the highs in the past week, and is now only 3.5% away from the wave 1 high. 6 weeks of gains gone in 4 days....However prices are now back in wave iv of 3 zone, so they may hold here?

DJ US Technology (DJUSTC) & Apple has fallen 7%, in a strong pullback. Cisco Systems (CSCO) has crashed and burned – over 26%!

DJ US Financials (DJUSFN) has fallen below the July highs and is no longer in an EW 5 wave impulsive count. We cannot rely on the Financials – It now is in the more bearish ABC count mode.

The VIX has risen 30% over the past week as these leading indices have sharply moved south.

Meanwhile, the USD has risen 4.8% as bonds fell.

The last time the $NYSI fell so sharply was back in the May 20% correction - not a good sign for a wave 4.

In last nights trading session, 'Breadth' closed at 6.5:1 decliners, 'Volume' was also heavy at 1.3b shares traded on the NYSE, and 'down volume' accounted for 93% of the total volume. Pretty severe for a mid-wave 4 day?

On the bright side US GDP Q3 figures are released before the open on 23 November and are predicted to rise from 2.0% to 2.3%...some suggesting even higher....W%14 trigger area?









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skyhawk
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 05:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This my Elliott Wave interpretation of the AUDUSD.
The patterns in this pair are much clearer at present than the stock indices in terms of EW.

I have penciled in a contracting trinagle for the current move down of wave 4 and we are in subwave a of that wave 4 at present.
As the AUDUSD has been tracking the indices (SPX) reasonably well, what happens here might have a good chance of showing in the SPX as well.
The subwave a is incomplete but is reaching a level of "obvious" support where we should be seeing a bounce.This is the lowest portion of the span of the previous4th wave of one less degree @ $0.9650 The same goes for the SPX I dare say..
application/vnd.ms-excel
audusd daily ew_171110.xls (74.8 k)



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billt
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Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 11:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Andrew, is the timing of the low still over the next week or two?


Interesting to note that the US Financials has fallen below the July highs and now in a corrective longer term count. US Commodities is edging closer overnight to do the same.

The US OIL index has completed a 5 wave impulsive move from August 2010 and has come off over 10% in the last few days, similar to US Commodities. Longer term OIL remains in a corrective phase.

US Commodities, Oil, and Financials are under considerable stress…






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rdumas
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Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 02:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible XJO Short Term EW Count

Not entirely sure if the EW count for the XJO below is correct. If it is then we have a rally to be followed by one more leg down which would complete the final impulse wave as well as wave circle c of the circle abc corrective pattern.

I am still going with the idea that we will bottom out in the current corrective pattern sometime next week.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 03:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy,

hi Rudy

The other option could be a fuller impulsive wave a to complete in another week or so, before a zigzag or another corrective wave 4 pattern as Andrew has suggested:





SPX is looking like a 5 wave move at this point, and US Commodities & US Technology are definitely pointing that way at the moment.


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rdumas
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Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 03:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Anything is possible but the daily chart looks like we may have bounced off the LBB with a buy signal not far away on the W%R14. There also appears to be some good support at the level it bounced from (which I guess is why it bounce there in the first place ).

Since about the middle of September this index has been bouncing up and down in 3 wave moves. What we have just been through is another one. What is not obvious at present is whether that 3 wave move is complete or not or whether it will morph into a 5 wave move as you suggest.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 04:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy


Checking out the W%14 there are numerous targets in the short term using the recent high points, but one heading back to the 21 June high picks up four intermediates, so that might present a possibility later this month.




The same target (29th November) aligns on the W%55 (Dolphin Method?), again picking up numerous intermediates on a number of alignments:





If this correction lasts for another 8 to 10 trading days it may give some guidance to a fuller correction?

Wait and watch....

bill


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skyhawk
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Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 05:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

have attached current Delta and 8Hr Cycles of SPX. They suggest getting close to a bounce here. Thereafter we could put in one more low. At this stage still looking like around mid next week

Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx_delta_181110.xls (448.5 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx 8hr bars cycles_181110.xls (342.5 k)



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rdumas
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Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 07:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

That is an interesting use of the W%R indicator. As you say we'll have to wait and see what happens. Certainly the 29th November is a potential Delta date for the SPX and XJO.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 07:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Thanks for the Delta and cycles charts for the SPX. The Delta chart lines up nicely with my XJO Delta. We are getting close to a bounce now.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, November 19, 2010 - 07:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 EW Count Remains Valid

The EW count for the S&P500 in my market wrap of the 5th November remains valid. As has been mentioned in several of my posts, the wave 4 underway had a high probability that it would either be a Flat or a Triangle. From a time perspective I tend to favour the Triangle scenario.

Now it is possible that wave "a" of that Triangle may have completed a little earlier than our Delta charts suggested or it could also be only the first of 3 waves of a larger wave "a" pattern. If a larger "a" develops then it would probably terminate towards the end of the month as previously mentioned.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, November 19, 2010 - 07:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Guys

The Red Count looks favorite at this moment, considering the cycle analysis work. If Wave 4 takes as long as Wave 2 then we will end in an abcde corrective I would imagine, with the low perhaps already in.

The Black Count of a 5 wave down looks less likely, but if we have an extended period before Wave 5 commences it may still pan out. Unlikely based on the Cycle work.... Still worth some consideration.

Any other thoughts Rudy?





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rdumas
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Friday, November 19, 2010 - 07:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

As we expect the final completion of Primary wave Circle B to take place at the earliest in February and more than likely much later, it is important for this wave 4 to chew up a lot of time.

For that reason I believe that we will more than likely form a Triangle pattern and this leg down is only the first wave of that 5 wave pattern. I strongly suspect that we are only forming wave 'b' of that first leg down as depicted in your chart.

I bought into STW at the close yesterday in readiness for this bounce but will pull out in anticipation of the wave 'c' down next week.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, November 19, 2010 - 07:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

Sorry mate, my post 518 overlapped yours....

Interesting to note that the time and price of Wave a in both Waves 2 & 4 look near on identical...if we complete soon, wave b will be bang on too. Sharp Waves 2 & 4 is a 8.7% chance of occurring according to the Cheat Sheet, but 'Twins' must be very long odds...

Only feels like yesterday that 'the world and his dog' were searching for 'nested waves' within that Wave 2 - Prechter boys had us in Wave 3 from memory!


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rdumas
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Friday, November 19, 2010 - 07:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The following charts were what caused me to have a punt in STW yesterday at the close. The bounce just looked too inviting to miss out on.

First the 90 minute chart.





And then the daily chart I posted yesterday. I suspect that we may get the buy signal on this chart today some time.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, November 19, 2010 - 07:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes Bill you have a good point there. They do look quite similar don't they. Note that the range of wave 2 was 89.55 points and if we replicated that range in wave 4 it would terminate at the 1137.53 level which is still above the termination of wave 1.

Remember though what I said in an earlier post. A pattern is defined as being a flattish pattern or a sharpish pattern by the shape of the entire pattern. Hence even though the individual legs may be quite sharp, the overall pattern may turn out to be flattish.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, November 19, 2010 - 08:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Pollyanna's Martian is at 1136, and 50% fib is at 1133?

Termination Date 29 November to accord with Wave 2 in time and price?

W%14 & W%55 align to 29 November?

Andrew's Red 6 on his Delta?





'Twins' - who would have thought!


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rdumas
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Friday, November 19, 2010 - 11:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What a pathetic rally that was in the XJO. I was hoping to get a lobster meal out of it an may have to settle for a McDonalds.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, November 19, 2010 - 03:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...and teasingly it has left both the SPX & XJO in a downtrend format - XJO more so than SPX.


I thought you would have picked up more than that Rudy...it looked a great call.








The W%14 gave a signal, but not off the recent 4800+ high.

Has wave a completed?...perhaps the 5 waver is still a possibility?

bill


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skyhawk
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Saturday, November 20, 2010 - 09:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have been looking at Medium Long Term Fixed Time Cycle possibilities for the SPX.
I have established 2 time possibilities for the termination of the rally that started March 2009.
Feb 2011 and June 2011. In order to establish this I am trying to look at pattern, price, and Time to come together.
At present I favor the Feb 2011 possibility but ultimately this has to be confirmed via wave structure and a topping of the 4 year cycle in my Monthly Cycles Analysis

In the excel chart attached I have included two charts. The first sheet is of my MLTD prime count which in comparison to the second sheet which contains more cycle points for better resolution although the cycle lengths are exactly the same.

As can be seen we have completed cycle point green 14 and green 15 may also be in place as of last Friday. Our next objective then is MLTD point green 16 due in Feb. Historically this comes in just to the right of the vertical red line (as shown my red arrow)

The MLTD alternate count, which is on excel sheet two shows the purple cycle point point 11 due half way between vertical red and blue lines (quite accurately on a historical basis) due in June 2011. I should add here that cycle point green 18 in the MLTD prime chart is also due at the same time as Purple point 11 in the MLTD Alternate chart.

Wave structure SUGGESTS wave 5 from the count that started from the July 2010 low should finish around Feb if we have wave equality. BUT, wave 5's can extend so ultimately the profile of the chart of the 4 year to the mark.

The profile of the 4 year cycle must show it crossing above the centreline and it has yet to do that.

So for now make the most of the rally till Feb and we will review the 4 year cycle at that time and we should be able to determine if the cycle persists or not then..

Cheers



application/vnd.ms-excel
spx mltd possibilities.xls (421.4 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx monthly cycles analysis_191110.xls (291.8 k)



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billt
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Monday, November 22, 2010 - 09:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy for the MW and Andrew for your Cycle charts...

With 5 trading days left to the 'outer zone' of the cycle turning point, and with most of the Market Breadth Indicators still bearish, and I am watching for any negativity this week. If the market turns further south this week it may be worth watching any action on the VIX.

Last week the VIX punched through a falling multi month wedge pattern, only to return, and to close the week on support levels. We have another bearish wedge set up on the 60 min charts with bullish divergence, so we may see a push higher on the VIX which may deliver a lower low on SPX. Note that the ADX line has flicked up at the close last week - something may be coming...?

Although the sideways triangular pattern looks favorite, a fuller abc correction may occur this week if we see the VIX spike.




Blue count of the abc count seems the most bearish option considering a turning point of 29 November.

To achieve a fuller red 5 wave count looks less likely unless this correction unfurls into a 30 day period - the 1/2 set up however, is still valid..... Unlikely outcome considering Andrew's Cycle analysis work.





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rdumas
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Monday, November 22, 2010 - 10:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I suspect that we won't get much more downside in this correction and that the worst is behind us. We are starting to run out of time so I am monitoring things very carefully to see if we in fact already have the bottom in place.

We have hit a bit of a ceiling on the XJO at this point in time on the 30 minute chart and it will be interesting to see if it can make a higher low.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, November 22, 2010 - 02:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Update at 3pm

At time of writing this post the XJO is sitting at around 4636.8. The 61.8% retrace of the latest rally is 4637.08. The W%R14 and Slow Stochastic indicators are showing a bottoming type of process so at this stage we appear to be getting a higher low for today. As we can see the 'line in the sand' is around the 4620 level.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, November 23, 2010 - 07:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

The Blue Count, or a version of it, still looks the likely outcome.

The Red Count is still an option, but we may need a left field event to cause a 4% drop this week. Economic figures out tonight will not help that cause.

The 5 wave count south is still valid (1/2,1/2,1/2 set up), however the wave nature within the set is more on the corrective side - lots of three wave patterns within the set. Time has run out, unless we have further immediate bad news out of PIIGS land.





US Q3 GDP out tonight will post a 2.5% figure, a push up from 1.8% and 2.0% over the past quarters. Retail Sales up from 0.7% to 1.2% last week was the other piece of better news. SPX could spike on the announcement just before the open??

With the Fed still pumping in $100b per month, the US Military spending about the same, and the $USD continuing to be debased, the value of US stocks will continue to rise - for now.

bill







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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 23, 2010 - 07:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

One of my readers asked me if I could please put up some charts with arrows pointing upwards for a change. I'm always willing to oblige.


You may recall that I have suggested that there is a reasonable probability that we will get a drawn out Triangle pattern for wave 4 so that we can chew up some time. The other possibility is an extended wave 5 to accomplish the same time consuming result. At this stage I'll still go with the Triangle wave 4 pattern because the market likes to keep investors frustrated and guessing. Hence taking your chart I would suggest the following scenario:





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010 - 05:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Been looking for some correlation for TZA and looks like there is pretty close to 3X for IWM which is the etf for russel 2000 index.

Chart attached.

Point being that sometimes there is a disconnect on TZA due to large short positions and derivative action.







_____ n a m a s t e

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billt
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010 - 07:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy - I'll put some 'green up' on all my posts..

Thanks also Hal, last nights action helped TZA another 3 to 4%.

Sorry I mentioned something ‘left field’ yesterday…. I had not thought of North Korea.

Korea, Chinese Inflation concerns, and ongoing PIIGS trough issue have pushed the SPX south overnight.


-The $USD has broken a strong multi month trend line, and is now charging higher;

-The US Banking Indices have come off 2% hitting a multi month low (BKX, $DJUSFN, etc);

-$DJUSFN Oil & Gas off 2% as well;

-Gold up $20;

-VIX has bolted through the multi month falling wedge pattern, and is heading higher...again!

-MA(50) at 1173 acting as support


Perhaps with these ongoing uncertainties, the abc zigzag might still play out?

A abcde triangle at lower levels might be now the alternative?

I'll keep the 5 wave count alive until the guns stop firing in Korea...





The good news: US GDP for Q3 announced at 2.5%....


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rdumas
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 EW Count Remains Valid

The S&P500 EW count remains valid but what has become clear is that the move down is an abc 3 wave move down with a wave equality target of 1146.21.





The main question to arise is whether this abc pattern will complete wave 4 or whether it purely wave (a) of either a higher level Flat or Triangle pattern. As previously mentioned, for my anticipated peak forming at the earliest in February 2011 to as late as June 2011, I need to see some 'time consuming' patterns developing in either wave 4 or 5.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010 - 07:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Looks like our posts crossed paths.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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