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Archive through December 02, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 02, 2010

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billt
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Monday, November 29, 2010 - 08:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

It is worth getting your head around Andrew's Cycle work. Although there are 'no guarantees', however his analysis has proven very valuable to the combined efforts of the 4Gs. Rudy's EW count has been heavily influenced from Andrew's work, so it is worth spending some time and getting your head around it. Much depends upon Andrew's own interpretation of his charts, but with a bit of 'grey matter' you get the drift of what he is saying....

In terms of the AUD/CAD position, the AUD continues to strengthen based upon the normal drivers:

1. Rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia continuing to expand the differential between Aussie & Canadian base rates - inbound foreign currency to Aus' chasing bigger returns;
2. Canadian economic underperformance, GDP slipping back to low 2.2% in Q3 & Q4, whilst Australian GDP is continuing to strengthen to 3.3%, close to trend, the fastest pace in three years last quarter;
3. Canadian Unemployment stubbornly up at the 8% level, whilst Australia is nearing 'full capacity' in the low 5%;
4. Concern about decreased US demand for Canadian exports, compared with Australia's expanding trade position with Asia
5. Beat you in the Commonwealth Games, and most other relevant events.... Our policemen are in fast V8 cars not on horses....

Hal, you need to tow Canada across the Pacific and tie up to us....

Bill


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ehmu
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Monday, November 29, 2010 - 10:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nice piece of research Bill, thank you.

It might be more feasible to drill through to you, and install a bullet train. Seems that you're directly below us, so the one way train could run on gravity.

I notice that we have 50% more primates here than you have there, and 100% fewer dingos.

Oh, and I suspect that a high percentage of our unemployed are recent immigrants from ..........down under. Really, we're just a colony like you folks, we're just not certain about the sovereignty of our roots.

ha ha, police on horses, our government just refuse to spend the money on cars.









_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Monday, November 29, 2010 - 02:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi folks,

Further to Andrew's excellent post this morning on the XJO and SPX. One of the things that Andrew mentioned was the importance of the date of the 10th December. He suggested that he was unsure at this stage whether it would be a top or a bottom.

Looking at the recent cycles that have played out on the XJO we can see that there was an important 144 trading day cycle (from the April peak) that picked the recent top of the 5th November.

Note that there have also been some pretty good Conti cycles that have been pretty accurate in determining tops and bottoms. There was an initial 35/36 day Conti cycle as well as a larger 64/65 day Conti cycle.

Now provided that the XJO maintains the present low of the 24th November then the chances of the 10th December being a top becomes a high probability event.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, November 29, 2010 - 02:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Status

I did receive a private mail asking why I was suggesting that we could possibly get a change in market mood this week which could be the start of the rally to new highs (refer my weekend market wrap) and Andrew was suggesting that it could happen a week or so later.

As I have indicated many times previously, timing is probably one of the more difficult aspects of technical analysis. The 4Gs use a number of methodologies (see my last post on Conti cycles for example) including the Delta stuff that Andrew posted on Sunday. Delta is an excellent methodology that can give an analyst some incredible insights into where tops and bottoms may occur years into the future.

Like all methodologies, Delta is not infallible even though it is very good. Potential turning points can slip either side of the 'norm' so that 100% accuracy is far from guaranteed. I would suggest that to be able to nominate a significant top or bottom with an accuracy of 1 or 2 weeks is nothing to be sneezed at.

In the meantime the XJO has been given a W%R14 buy signal today which is a welcome relief to those who may have entered the market a fraction early. As mentioned in my previous post on Conti cycles, if the low of the 24th holds then this rally may well give us a top sometime around the 10th December. If it doesn't hold then we would have to recalibrate that smaller Conti cycle.



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Monday, November 29, 2010 - 04:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good afternoon Rudy,

With both yourself and Skyhawk being optimistic for a December rally I'm hoping that Santa will be good to us. As for a 5000 top for this year I feel we shall miss out. Maybe in January 2011.

Eugenio


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skyhawk
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Monday, November 29, 2010 - 04:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SP500 futures rallying this evening on Ireland bailout news..
From an EW perspective, (see chart below) we are either tracing out pink wave e OR the middle stages of pink wave d IF the pattern is indeed what I have been saying.
The pattern is still valid, and wave e can rally all the way and "throw over" the upper converging trendline before completing. Otherwise, if the pattern is not valid, then a close above the peak of pink wave c @ 1202pts would be needed for the bullish case.



application/vnd.ms-excel
sp500 1hr bars ew_291110.xls (180.2 k)



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skyhawk
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Monday, November 29, 2010 - 08:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

Looks like you are getting the hang of conti cycles!! :-)

As can be seen, the future is just a repetition of the past,great work. We need to allow 1-3 days leeway too as sometimes they don't arrive bang on time.

So don't get discouraged if sometimes things don't happen straight away...
The 65 Bar Regular cycle which you are attempting
to use to time the low might say happen in 67-68 bars. Either way, it suggests a low in the XJO is very close, just a matter of a few days at the most..

Cheers

(Message edited by skyhawk on November 29, 2010)


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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 07:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eugenio ol' buddy,

Great to have you back hitting cyberspace again. You've been missed big time.

I suspect that you are right about 5000 by Christmas. Andrew and I have been looking for a peak sometime in the February to June period which is why we have been looking for patterns that delay the larger move up. If the peak is meant to come closer to May/June then we could be stuck in a slow moving wave 4 for some time yet. It has a lot of time to develop at this stage of the cycle and even a move down to 1156 for the SPX is still on the cards if one of our scenario's plays out.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 07:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Andrew,

Well I should have been able to get the hang of the Conti cycles as it's one of the less complicated methodologies you taught me.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Actually,
The approach goes into much more detail...

I have chosen to keep it simple, because I don't
complicate things...


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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 09:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 Battle Lines


The trading channel that the S&P500 has been living in since around the 16th November is very clear to see. The direction of the next interim move of any significance will be determined by which boundary gets convincingly broken.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 09:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A Couple of SPX EW Counts


On the weekend I suggested the following two scenarios for the S&P500 index.




In Andrew's recent post he has dealt with the more bearish EW count suggesting a possible move down to the 1156 level. As indicated in my previous post, the boundary that gets convincingly breached in the trading channel will determine which direction the next interim significant trend will take. The following EW count produced by PUG is a reasonable one for the more bullish case.





The market in the next week should determine which scenario is closer to the mark. Note that there have been 5 unsuccessful tests of the 1173~1175 level since the 21st October so it is proving to be a pretty significant support region.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 11:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Anything is possible Rudy.....

From my point of view, IF the market thrusts lower from the current congestion, that will set up some very nice buys hopefully the end of the week.
Either way we coming into a low. Just to demonstrate how close, have a look at BHP which carries a large weighting in the XJO. The BHP Daily EW count is crystal clear here and shows
we only have basically a small thrust down to the $42.3 Target (0.382 level of wave 3).
Just a matter of days really


Cheers



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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 12:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Spot on Andrew. BHP is a bit of laggard at present as WBC has already shown that it is ready to rumble. That is why I have already started putting money back into the market on STW and WBC.

XJO has already had 5 failed attempts at breaking down through the current levels which is a pretty healthy sign for establishing a solid foundation and 4802 at the UBB is beckoning.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 03:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys

With the majority of the US Indicators still on a ‘sell’, with prices on the SPX still below the falling trend line, and with only lower highs still being printed out, I feel we need to keep open the idea of a push lower this week until prices break the trend line to the north.

On the SPX another option to Andrew's abcde pattern is a double zig-zag a-b-c-x-a-b-c. This pattern could take us lower to hit Andrew’s 5th December low cycle date and the 38% fib @ 1155 before Wave 5 commences.





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billt
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 03:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Multiple W%14 targets arriving on Friday/Monday to support Andrew's low target date.

W%14 is heading lower at the moment and should be in a position to attack the -80 level by the end of the week...





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rdumas
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 03:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

In order to get a top on the 10th December for the XJO as indicated in my Conti chart the other day it would require the low of the 24 November to remain in tact.

That would mean that Friday's (or tomorrow's) low would not be "the" low but would mark the low that starts the rally. This is still a possibility if we get wave equality as shown in the chart below.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 04:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

I have a possibility for a turn 4th Dec as mentioned in the weekends analysis. That is Calendar Day count and falls on a Saturday. As such either 3rd or 6th plus or minus a day either side of the 3rd and 6th would be the correct time target.

The way things are shaping up, the pattern is the best guide ATM and the should be complete before or by weeks end..

Even if a low were in place in the index, it very close now 1-3 days from our projected time target it makes little difference.

Cheers


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billt
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 04:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

W%14 on the XJO looks similar to the SPX, however it is now at -82% heading down, with buy set up targets again on Friday/Monday as well.

Lower BBs now down to 4503 on XJO, near the 61.8% retracement at 4505.

Aus' GDP figures out tomorrow, with JP Morgan suggesting that 'it's not out of the question now that we see negative growth'. Weaker than expected company profits and sales figures yesterday led analysts slashing their GDP forecasts. Non mining company profits slid 3.25% in Q3! Aussie growth may have stalled....? Some analysts are suggesting the GDP result is expected to come in at 0.5 per cent on the quarter. That is a significant drop from the 1.0% average over the past three quarters. (...we are nearly as bad as Canada!)

If the SPX heads south tonight, we may be in for a wave C of an ABC for the XJO as well, with waves A and B complete already?

Bill


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billt
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 04:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Andrew,

The Delta gets you very close, then you look at other clues I guess.

One last wiggle down might occur, but then blue sky above....

thanks again

Bill


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skyhawk
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 08:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tuesday, November 30, 2010 - 08:02 pm:    


Delta is one best approaches I have seen as an overall guide to the market.
What needs to understood is that it is not the Holy Grail (those who are looking are wasting their time ).

The best time and price approach I have seen is from a friend who was heavily into Bill Maclarens Gann Geometric Approach but at times it was inconsistent and was more of an art...

Irrespective of what you use, be it Gann, EW,Oscillators, Cycles, or even Astrology and Planet lines, ANYTHING.....
If you cannot understand the pattern of the trend, your approach is doomed to failure.

Those approaches above are only the icing on the cake to a necessary understanding of the dynamics of how markets move and trend :-)


Cheers 


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ehmu
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 04:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudys W%R trade signals, my experience on how I'm using them and why.

Three things that I have noticed:

1 Experimentally I altered the time span on my analysis to obtain best confluence of target areas for multiple time spans analysed (at either the -20 or -80). I found that the 18 bar setting worked the best so far.

My charting program displays the trend lines that I have drawn on all time frames, which is part of what makes this possible for me.

2 I overlay the W%R on the ROC with appropriate scaling on the ROC. I take the trade signal where the range indicator crosses the rate of change indicator. The reason that I developed this safegaurd is that I was looking for a way to reduce the number of false start signals where the range indicator crosses either the -20 or -80. My limited testing (3 weeks), is showing that this increases the reliability of the trade signals considerably. This benefit more than compensates for the price range lost in the -20/-80 triggers that were not false signals.

3 I noticed that these trade signals have coincided with a price close above/below the 13ema in almost every case. I ignore the crossings of the 13ema when it doesn't accompany the W%R triggers.

That's it, thanks Rudy. I'll continue testing as long as I use this technique.






_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 07:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

I will be out all day today so will miss out on all of the fun. Just a few points:

1) Hal, I love your continuing research into the W%R14 indicator (or should I now call it the W%R18 indicator?). On your wave count I wouldn't turn bearish too quickly matey just because the fundamentals looks so scary at present. Technically there are a number of barriers to overcome for the bears at present.

2) Bill, whilst I think that it is a possibility for the XJO to head down to the 4505 level it still has to test the 50% retrace level at 4564.45 first and then there is the Uranus level at 4534 that also needs a test.






3) and to top it off I thought that the following chart of the S&P500 clearly shows that the current levels are acting as a very strong support level at this point in time. I don't know how many more tests to the downside the bears will pull before they give up in disgust.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 08:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys

Your point is well made Rudy – 1173 is showing strong support…if it breaks we could head down another 3% or so…

On the SPX overnight not much has changed, indicators still on ‘sell’, declining trend line intact, with another day of holding 1173. Minor wave 4 continues to track down.

The Bearish outcome of Wave 4 would put us in a wave c of an abc with a wave target of c.1146. To achieve Andrew’s cycle target we would need a gap down and a confirming close below the 1173 strong support.

A ‘gap up and go’ would signal Wave 5 has commenced.

Still a 50:50 chance at this moment I feel as it's big brother NYSE just posted a new low for the correction.

I had a look what NYSE is doing, and overnight it put in a new intra day low for Wave 4 and a new closing low for Wave 4. Indicators on ‘sell’, declining trend line intact - a little more bearish than SPX.

(having trouble with the attachment loading...I'll try later...)


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skyhawk
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 08:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I think the odds favour the bears, till weeks end anyway.
One thing about patterns in particular EW patterns, they need to have
the "right look".
In my opinion, that look is such that we need to have a thrust out
of the current triangle to reach an extreme on the downside
before we can convincingly make a "right look" for an EW correction
and bottoming.
So if I am right be prepared for that thrust down and some volatility
in the next 2-4 trading days...in the SP500

Cheers


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ehmu
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 11:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings and Salutations:

Thanks for all the great feed back and concern.

Rudy, I'm ok, I'm actually a lot more bearish than the last chart I put up, apologies---I'm just too lazy to kill the possible A,B,C on my charting program.

One big reason that I'm bearish is the extreme complacency that is built in to the "Bernanke sydrome". People are taking positions intraday on full margin and counting on a rally in the last two hours of the day. And I might add, I'm sure they've been making a tonne of money at it.

Just for fun, I threw my kinky curvy on the SPY chart, only in a corrective mode. (the last time I put it on in a bullish mode).




Double Dippy Whippy --- Berry Contrary Harry







_____ n a m a s t e

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 04:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well another day and the market has continued the struggling trend of the last week.
In last weekends post we mentioned that we expected a low 3rd Dec( 4th Dec is a Saturday) plus or minus one day. The date of importance mentioned was 10th Dec.

If this market cannot thrust lower out of the triangle by tonight then it is fair to say that we are unlikely to reach the 1156(SPX) objective and a low is most likely in.

Rudy posted some conti cycles for the XJO some days ago, and I think those cycles are bang on correct for that index and we won't see new lows from here as we are simply running out
of time. Perhaps a retest of the lows will coincide with the Delta date for this week.


The AUDUSD looks like it's forming an Ending Diagonal on the 4 Hr chart attached. Downside looks to be limited from here

Cheers


application/vnd.ms-excel
market observations.xls (485.9 k)



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gdd3
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 05:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Skyhawk...

You said above...The AUDUSD looks like it's forming an Ending Diagonal on the 4 Hr chart attached. Downside looks to be limited from here

Well I agree and I think today's late action is suggesting yesterday's low maybe it for awhile. I posted a chart in the Forex Topic thread a day or two ago suggesting just what you have said but here is an updated version of that daily that shows, via the Williams%R14 indicator plus holding of structural supports, that if we close at present levels or a little higher then we have the low we are both looking for and we should be long the A$.

Billt...By the way , I do like your chart and continued Williams%R study shown above also and as a sign of respect I have shown the ROC indicator on my chart below also. Seriously, thanks for bringing the charting software program to our attention but sadly we can't get ASX stocks through it yet! I'm really envious of the clarity of your reproduced charts here on IC...just can't seem to be able to duplicate it myself using MSPaint to reduce to suitable IC format for my forum postings.


}}

Cheers
Dolphin


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billt
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 06:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi guys

Buy signals at the W%14 @ -80% on both the AUDUSD & XJO today...so we might be there?

The only concern in Disneyland is that the $USD is in a wave 3 it appears, and the VIX has broken out its falling bullish wedge pattern and looks to still have something left to give.


I do like your crazy wave Hal, keep them coming...


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rdumas
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 06:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

I could be wrong but I feel reasonably confident that the 24th November was the low for the correction that started on the 5th November for the XJO and that the Conti cycles chart that I posted suggesting an interim high on the 10th December is right on track.

It would not surprise me in the least if the mood change that I talked about in my weekend market wrap started tomorrow.

Santa is in the midst of packing is sleigh.




(Message edited by rdumas on December 01, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 07:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



On this occasion it looks like these conti cycles will work out spot on.
Call it a run of bad luck but I have only been able to time two
MTD points all year with this approach....
Last few weeks have put it on the back burner and used alternate
tools.

Looks like you are better suited to it than I am!! .-)
So if it turns out that the 10th Dec holds the rhythm it will be
great, however one thing we need to firmly remember Conti Cycle
Analysis can and DOES change the cycle rhythm repeatedly...
So just because we had a particular cycle count this time, does
not mean it will carry through when the cycle inverts.

It seems that on every occasion at least one tool we look at comes
up with the goods. The trouble is, finding appropriate tool to use
for the occasion

Cheers


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gdd3
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Wednesday, December 01, 2010 - 08:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ehmu...

The comment in my post above..."

Billt...By the way , I do like your chart and continued Williams%R study shown above also and as a sign of respect I have shown the ROC indicator on my chart below also. Seriously, thanks for bringing the charting software program to our attention but sadly we can't get ASX stocks through it yet! I'm really envious of the clarity of your reproduced charts here on IC...just can't seem to be able to duplicate it myself using MSPaint to reduce to suitable IC format for my forum postings.


....was actually referring to your earlier post; sorry Billt ...but I also like your charts very much.


Long Day on other affairs I guess has 'addled' my brain!

The good thing is that we seem to have a consensus of opinion that we have, or are very close to, a bottom in the our markets...now all we need is the markets to confirm our analysis.

Early night for Dolphin tonight!

Cheers
Dolphin}}


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ehmu
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 01:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin:

Not to worry about giving bill credit, he deserves it.

Not sure what you mean about the charts, but a guess would be that the IC charts are somewhat limited in their ability to annotate with text and symbols. If this is the case let me mention that I use microsoft xl or word to embed the chart and then do the surgery in that program. I then have a screen capture program that scales the image to the limited size that our message board limits. 650x650

H




_____ n a m a s t e

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ehmu
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 01:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



An article on Four Year Cycles.

You've got to love it when you find an article that somewhat agrees with what you already believe. Except maybe if you're a member of the "flat earth society"


http://seekingalpha.com/article/239328-detecting-the-next-four-year-cycle-high?s ource=email_watchlist




_____ n a m a s t e

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skyhawk
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 05:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting article ehmu....
But somehow I doubt his static 4 yr cycles
will be correct.
The problem with this type of analysis
is that in reality static market cycles have tendencies to disappear
(beats), then re appear at later stages. They
also are prone to phase shifts as well as continuous
expansion and contraction.

Now the underlying cycles are actually STILL there,
but becuase the market motion is made up of
an infinite number of cycles each exerting
their influence, then other cycles could be
more dominant at that point in time.

So rather than looking at 1 cycle, it might be better
to look at a number of cycles, or better still
a synthesis of a number of cycles...

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 06:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

You and I both know that we have to continually relook at all of the tools in our tool box as quite often some run hot when others are running cold. Take for example that 144 day cycle between the April and November peaks (refer to the Conti chart I posted) that we all missed until after the event when you drew our attention to it.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 06:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Yes it was an interesting article and like Andrew, I like to look at both fixed and dynamic cycles to better gauge where potential tops and bottoms may occur. There are many methodologies that allow us to do both but it is not a simple exercise.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 06:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks skyhawk:

My guess is that all of us probably espouse our visions in order for them to have a chance to become visible, this may be the reason that he wrote the article.

I have no opinion regarding cycle analysis, other than the underlying rhythm controls the essence (or visa versa).

On another subject though, appears that a large population of my bearish scenarios have passed on due to genetic defects. They are dead in other words, never to hibernate again.

The US markets advanced 2.2%, almost as though the exact targets were dictated to them by some irresistible force.




_____ n a m a s t e

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skyhawk
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Hello Rudy,

I am sure the smile has returned to your face given last nights action:-)
Last week was a worry, but in virtually one day that worry has been erased.
Re which tools to use, there is so much we have at our disposal,
that one does not have the time to look at everything.
Perhaps we should construct a matrix and actually list all the possibilities,
That way we can further investigate them.
This was in the ballpark for both Delta and the fib count I made last week
being only a few days early and in the XJO the retest of the low ( higher low) looks like it lined up with the expected Delta low of tomorrow.
ie the pattern truncated....

Unfortunately that is the best Delta can do.
Now for this rally.... We mentioned the importance of the 10th Dec
in terms of conti and fib cycles. And this may intact mark a high.
BUT our next Delta MTD date is not due for another 2.5-3 weeks .
It's a big gap in time between the current delta MTD low and the next one.
As mentioned in last weekends analysis. The most common retrace
level for a wave is 38.2% of wave 3.
Now if that is all the retracement the SPX could manage (to 1172),
then the odds are high that the market will quickly move up and retest
the last high...


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ehmu
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 07:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Missed your in between post Rudy.

I hear you, complex, and with its own life.




_____ n a m a s t e

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billt
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 07:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

The push up last night looked convincing for a wave 5 breakout - however, as Wave 4's can be buggers, could we have one last wobble into an abcde finale over the next few days to complete 4 whilst maintaining Andrew's timescale?

Yesterday Andrew noted : "One thing about patterns in particular EW patterns, they need to have the right look"...

If we have completed Wave 4 it certainly didn't look all that convincing in its form - at least to me....an abcde completion would have been a neater ending....

The last wave up looks impulsive nevertheless, with a possible 5 wave action, so that may have been i of 5 or a part thereof?





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skyhawk
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 07:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

You make a very good point....
It is possible, however if it was to happen and we make a false break
new low, it have to be no later than Monday as we are running out
of time. Anything after that, then theoretically the cycles will have turned up...

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 07:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

On the contrary matey. If you look at my post 4376 on Tuesday where I posted a reduced down version of PUG's bullish count you will find does have the 'right look' (in terms of a valid count) and to top that off it is in perfect synchronism with the longer term Delta that I have which indicates that we will rise now (with its usual retracements) until late December/early January.

The 10 December date that I suggest is an interim high will be just one of the tops within the rising pattern into the above specified period.

One of the big lessons I learnt some time ago with my growth through EW analysis is don't ever ignore multiple failed support or resistance levels. Refer to my post 4379. It was screaming a message to me yesterday as did the 5 failed tests on the XJO of the 4560 level which is what led to my Santa Claus post last night.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 07:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill,

Just to emphasise that last post. We can see that we have had a clear (good quality) buy signal from our W%R14 indicator and the UBB is sitting at 1230 at present. It doesn't get much better than that. We are in a clear lower level wave 3 (possibly of the next level wave 1 of 5).

Wave 3's at any level are always a sight to behold and trumpet themselves for all to see. I mentioned recently that the boundary that was clearly broken of our sideways trading channel would mark the direction of the next significant trend. In case you haven't noticed, we have done this to the upside!!!





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 08:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

Until Yesterday morning what I interpreted as a wave b 'contracting triangle' failed to have the "right look" for a typical EW correction to be completed. The fact that the pattern "truncated" and failed to reach he 38.2 retracement level means this was NOT your typical wave 4 correction. This simply was NOT evident on the market data available on the weekend.
Later in the afternoon (about 5pm when I made a post) it became highly evident the market was not going lower becausse the expected thrust out of the triangle wave B "jammed up" and the market was struggling to move lower.
You know as well as I do, that market expectations and in particular, pattern analysis can change on a dime..

Contracting Trinagles and Ending Diagonals are all about testing and retesting lows repeatedly. It could have easily gone either way, simple as that...

All we can is put our best analysis forward based on the conditions at that time...

None of us is capable of same day accuracy repeatedly, otherwise we would not be in undesirable positions in the first place. What we are able to do is understand roughly (within a week most times) when a market is making an important top or bottom and more importantly if the larger trend is either at risk or will persist.


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billt
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 08:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

I guess Pug's WXY count didn't really do it for me...it looked incomplete to me? I am not questioning the validity of the count, it was the 'look' of the correction, I suppose a more classic abc correction or an abcde ending pattern, something more 'text book'. To me, the pattern just fizzled away....I guess that was what Andrew was thinking yesterday as well...

However, the multiple support levels on SPX & XJO was indeed telling. The same occurred at wave 2.

The SPX W%14 has given a very strong signal from -80 to -22 in a day. Considering the strength of this signal, the abcde looks very unlikely, unless another left field event occurs.

The $USD might be completing it's own abc, and the VIX has run south...

Bill


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rdumas
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 08:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Andrew/Bill,

I am not saying anything new to either of you when I say that technical analysis is a game of probabilities. No one will be right all of the time because lower probability events have, and always will continue to occur.

All we can do as technical analysts is to make an attempt to keep the probabilities on our side. That is the mark of a successful investor. Goodness gracious, if I had a dollar for every time I got things wrong I would be a rich man.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 08:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Absolutely...agree 100%
However there is no shortage of traders out there who instead of working with probabilities, think they can PREDICT....

Good luck to them..


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billt
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 09:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I totally agree guys, to your credit you picked the timing between you extremely well...amazingly so!

Credit to old Pug too eh Rudy - his prediction was pretty spot on yesterday:

"I’m looking for a “gap up and go” above the 1187 pivot tomorrow morning... An intra-day move above 1190.34 would confirm the count. I heavily favor this count."

His latest thoughts has a target of 1251/1291 ‘by the end of 2010 to early 2011’. So 5% to 10% to go...

He also has a bearish count on the basis that wave 4 has not yet completed. Wave B to 1217, then C to 1156 prior to Xmas. A 10% probability….he says. I doubt that could be made to fit Andrew's Cycle analysis?

A 5 min chart:









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skyhawk
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 09:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

Rudy did the spot on timing and picking on this
occasion not me.

The best I can do on a consistent basis is basically
plus or minus a week.
But I did not get caught on the wrong side
last week because I pulled out early... That is the only
thing I did right :-)

At the end of the year as long as I have made
some reasonable coin is all that matters..

Every dog has his day as they say...:-)

 
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