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Archive through December 08, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 08, 2010

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skyhawk
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Thursday, December 02, 2010 - 08:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



About 15 months ago, I mentioned to the 4M's the that Monthly Cycles Analysis suggested this uptrend would persist and earlier this year my cycles suggested it continue into 2011.

I have attached some EW musings for the SPX. Assuming wave equality with wave 1, this uptrend should carry to about 1300 possibly a little higher. Who ever thought that this be the case 15 months ago, but these Monthly Cycles have stood the test of time and come up trumps again, keeping us on the right side of the market repeatedly since September 2007!!

The upper 3rd std deviation of the monthly Trading Bands also coincides with this approx 1300 pts projection so we have confluence here. Prices cycle from one extreme to another about a nominal trend level (blue line)

The bulk of the current leg up will come from the 4yr cycle component which is about 100pts or 8.3% from current levels before it reaches a similar peak to the 2007 high. The 1yr and 2yr cycles are at already much higher levels

The XAO has been of a laggard relative to the SPX the last 3-4 months. If I take it's monthly cycles chart at face value, then potential it could run up to between 5200-5500 on this leg. Once again the 4 year cycle will be the component that propels it. However the Trading Bands 3rd upper std deviation is at 5500 pts and the 2nd std deviation is at 5200 points so XAO might be in for a good run in the next 2-3 months.

Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx ew patterns and long tern cycles analysis.xls (469.0 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
xao monthly cycles analysis_031210.xls (131.1 k)
}


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billt
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 06:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everyone

Thanks Andrew for your Cycle charts - a great run north to come! Even 3 months ago most Prechter types were calling for an imminent crash, and the fundamentals looked as sick as parrots to support that outcome, so invaluable work Andrew...

Another strong push up last night to complete what looks like the termination of wave 1 of 5 on the SPX.

For those who prefer to enter at the bottom of Wave 2, the next few days may be interesting.

The target for Wave 2 looks to be in the 1199 to 1206 area, shown by the blue target lines. The 38% retrace of wave 1 target is 1203.

On the more bearish count, shown brown letting, we may have yet to complete Wave 4, and we have a final wave c to complete a running flat. On the basis of wave equality c=a, the target is 1168. The 38% retrace of wave 3 target is 1156. If we break the top of wave i of 1 at the 1190.34 the odds of this count becoming reality would significantly increase…Prices would need to clear the 1173.64 to make the more bullish count invalid. There is a very small likelihood of this occurring, but it is possible. From a timing point of view, Andrew’s bottom target for Wave 4 by 5 December plus or minus a few days possibly allows for this to occur, but wave c would need to rocket down 5% pretty smartly to fit the Cycle timescale?

Nevertheless, with most indicators now bullish the strong likelihood is for a pullback to the 1203 area for a completion of wave 2.










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skyhawk
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 07:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

I mentioned some weeks ago about two time targets. Firstly Feb 2011 (might go into March-will quantify as we approach) and June 2011.

Based on the probabilities suggested that wave 1 equals wave 5 and upper 3rd std deviation band resistance (approx 1300+), we have a very good Fibonacci cluster @ 1350-1352 so that is the price time target level target for the Feb/Early March .

However, if the trend persists into June 2011, the Fibonacci Price target is 1430-1432pts. At this stage I think this is unlikely but need to keep is as an alternate and firmly in the back of our minds as anything is possible as markets blowoff..

They are the two important price levels IMO

As for the current rally we have had in the last 2 days, it smells like a subwave b of a wave 4…
I cautiously entered the market yesterday morning but not short term bullishly as most.
The bullish consensus is very high at the moment, and I have a feeling that given a lot of stocks gapped up from lows yesterday, that the advances of the last few days will be retraced heavily ( but not fully) as we restest the lows of 3 days ago again.

Wave 4’s are difficult, and if they are triangles you gotta wait for wave c or e to complete to make a good entry for the thrust up.
Assuming offcourse this is a triangle pattern in play……


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billt
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 07:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Andrew,

The reason for my uncertainty on an abc was the impulsive nature of the wave b? I'll leave Mr E'Dubya to consider his verdict on that...beyond my pay grade!


The June 2011 long stop has me a bit puzzled as to how we could eat up 7 months in a wave 4 & 5, unless of course we are in a Mother of All Contracting Triangles of a Wave 4? Is that how you see the June option Andrew?

bill


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skyhawk
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 07:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

To be honest, I am not sure....
At present just have it as an option because I have a Medium Long
Term Delta point there.
Up to 3 highs in a row (unless we have an inversion in which cas we
have 4) make up a larger cycle (long term delta).
That does not mean we must have 3, but the possibility is there.
Now if we review the monthly cycles analysis in Feb 2011 and find
that the 4yr cycle still has a heap of upside potential, then we need
then the June MLTD point has a higher potential.
For now, let's stick to the primary count.

You are right though, there is no way a contracting triangle
Wave 4 and wave 5 would chew up that time, UNLESS wave 5 extended


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rdumas
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 07:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Andrew's Cycle Analysis

Without a doubt the one methodology that has doggedly kept me from getting caught up in the incredibly convincing Prechter negativity during the last year or so was Andrew's cycle analysis.

Our big test came in October 2009 when Prechter told his subscribers that now that the S&P500 had reached 1080 they should start shorting the market because the Primary wave 2 was nearing completion.

When I look through the copies of my market wraps during that period, we continued to say that the rally had not completed in spite of all of the main EW gurus saying that it had and all of the fundamentals supporting their claims.

I cannot over emphasise the powerful underlying confidence that having Andrew's cycle analysis gave me to stick to our predictions then and in recent times that we would not see the end of the rally that started in March 2009 until the first half of 2011.

Just goes to show folks, you don't have to pay hundreds or thousands of dollars to get the most reliable views on future market direction........you get it on this thread for zilch!!!

I continue to stress, because technical analysis is an exercise in determining the highest probability event, there will be times when our calls will not play out because the 'outsider' events will have their day. There is no doubt in my mind however based on my personal experience as a professional punter and a market player that if you work with the probabilities on your side, you can be a successful investor.

I have been fortunate enough to have been allowed to share the thoughts of some of the best technical analysts that I know. Randall and Barry have taught me so much and opened up so many new doors through their areas of expertise and wonderful research in areas not looked at by other analysts. Most of all though what I value is their friendship.

I have always believed in a team approach because my experience has always shown me that the 'whole' is always greater than the 'sum of the parts'.

The simple exercise with the W%R14 indicator that many of us on this thread took part in is a perfect example of that approach. Each person has a valuable contribution to make because we all see things differently. That is why I willingly shared the initial concept which came out of something that Dolphin had written in his TAZ commentary.

Unlike the physical world where when you give something away you end up with less, in the thought world if you give something away it comes back multiplied a hundredfold.

I would like to thank all those contributors who have posted on this thread and made it the successful thread that it has become. Your contributions I am sure have been appreciated by many readers.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



" Unlike the physical world where when you give something away you end up with less, in the thought world if you give something away it comes back multiplied a hundredfold. "


They are among the wisest words I have heard
Rudy....

I think one of the major challenges for us has
been trying to time short to medium term swings
consistently...
It's so very hard.

The cycles may not be precision timing, but
they offer the following benefits:-

•They keep you on the right side most of the time
• They suggest if a trend will persist or is at risk

Both with reasonably high probability..

The rest is up to us to make head or tails of...


Thank you for starting this thread and to all
for the intelligent and cooperative discussion...


Cheers


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rdumas
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 09:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Andrew,

One of the mistakes that I've been guilty of in the past is attempting to anticipate the smaller cycles and inevitably I got out too soon and had to get back in a little late. I agree with you that getting the timing of the smaller and medium term swings accurately is a real challenge.

As I moved into the market in a pretty substantial way prior to the large move up that we had I will try to curb my natural tendency to play the smaller waves and try to play the MTD waves instead. It will be a challenge as I do have a shorter term trader 'bent' during these highly volatile times.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 09:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

We do best we can over the short term, I too get cold feet
sometimes and exit early. If your analysis is strongly backed
it should not be that way.

However given that the current move MIGHT be wave b of
wave 4, I would not blame for taking profits in the short term.

As mentioned earlier, one of the reasons I did not commit fully
into this rally is because quite a few stocks gapped up from lows
yesterday... If wave b finishes ( if that is what it is!!), then a good
chunk of this rally might be retraced next week to fill this gaps


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billt
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 09:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Thanks Andrew for the 'June thoughts'....if we have a June '11 ending it sounds like either an extended wave 4 and/or an extended Ending Diagonal finish in this Wave 5....three big juicy highs before we complete might fill those delta highs?

For me, the combined input from the 4Gs identifies the much lower probability of an imminent correction south - and obviously Andrew's analysis on the Delta has been pivotal.

Interestingly on other sites at the moment there are many that are still calling this the top of wave 2 on the way south - an imminent wave 3 crash.....tomorrow! (perhaps they haven't keep up on their EWI hefty subscriptions!)

So of the many options right now:

1. 1 of 5 completing;
2. b of abc completing of wave 4;
3. b of abcde Contracting Triangle completing of wave 4;
4. 2 of 5 DOWN completing

...it is some comfort that 2 of 5 DOWN can be sidelined with a very, very low probability....

If you were to put a percentage probability on the main three outcomes, how would you rate them guys?

I assume Rudy you are more like 90:10 that wave 4 has completed, but Andrew you are perhaps more 50:50....? Hal what ya' think....Other posters thoughts welcomed on this poll!

(Rudy - an 'impulsive' wave b is a no-no, so unless we get a corrective pattern outcome does that rule out those abcde options? To make those corrective patterns work wave b will not have completed as yet....have I got that right?)








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skyhawk
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 10:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,
Everyone of those scenarios you mentioned is possible. Using EW
on isolation anyway...

Now which would be the least probable? I would say number 2.
How can we quantify this. With the help of cycles easily.
1/ Rudy mentioned that the conti cyclic pattern is now pointed up
a few days ago.
2/ 8hr Bars Cyclic Analysis which I will post tonight, shows
that largest of the 3 cycles I look at has bottomed and now pointed up
3/ the Delta MTD is in and the next one for the SPX is not due till
months end, barring an inversion....
Very good evidence that all but eliminates count number 2

Cheers


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rdumas
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 10:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

I think that the point that a number of us have made regarding any rally that lasts into the first half of 2011 is how are we going to chew up enough time in order to get our MTD peak in the time period specified. Being a 'play it safe' type person I would have a tendency to go with the earlier date (around February) at this stage.

That still gives us around 2~3 months of time to chew up. So far the Conti cycles are still valid which still means that we should see a top by Friday of next week.



Now we both know that Conti cycles can disappear as suddenly as they appear so there are not guarantees.

My XJO-ITD and MTD charts did suggest that our low has now past and I personally don't see any lower low occurring between now and late December/early January. We do know however that wave 2's are traditionally the sharper patterns and can often give up a lot of the range of wave 1 so it is entirely possible that we can head back down towards the previous lows (after my 10 December date). That would mean though that my interim top of late December/early January would not be the top of my 3rd wave as it would be very short in time compared to waves 1 and 2.

I think that the higher level for the XJO is too difficult to read at this stage because of the corrective nature of the first two rallies so I think that it is easier to just look at what is revealing itself at this juncture. The following is a possible EW count for the move up from the 24th November.

I am suggesting that the current impulse wave underway is only a lower level wave 1 of a larger impulse pattern. Once this lower level wave 1 is out of the way, we may get a much larger decline in our wave 2 that may eat away the profits gained in wave 1.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 11:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

Just some notes on these because I have not talked about them much:

Conti-Cycles:

-Regular Cycles: Occur in Uptrends and Downtrends, sideways markets
-Inverted Cycles: Occur in Uptrends and Downtrends, sideways markets

-A Regular Cycle MUST follow an Inverted Cycle or vice versa. After that the rhythm can change

-Allow 1-3 days leeway for probable targets. So your 10th Dec date could also be 7th Dec or 13th Dec but as I have a strong fib time cluster on the 10th as well which I indicated last week, it looks like being good

-Conti Cycles should be used in conjunction with PTT’s (Price Time Target) lines to ascertain price targets as well


-Conti Cycles are most effective in sideways or Choppy markets. In strongly trending markets you will be hard pressed to find them and results if you do are not consistent.


At present I am working on a methodology that combines both price and time to for a PTV (price Time Vector). Once this is done, then certain sacred geometric shapes can be formed like squares and triangles to determine with better accuracy in highly trending markets a more accurate time target

Cheers


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billt
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 11:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

The bullish count on SPX also looks like that wave 1 of 5 may have a final push up to c.1230 area before it completes, before a trip back to c.1200 area for wave 2 of 5.

The only bearish alternate left is the contracting triangle that would complete at the high and then retest but stay above the 1173 low.

In terms of your Conti XJO 10 December target, perhaps Polly could complete the correction south and Aunty follows.

Your 10 December might be a top of wave i of 3 or the top of Wave D in the Contracting Triangle set up? Is that the sort of thing?


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skyhawk
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 11:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,


Firstly I am glad you have got the hang of these as I don't have the resources to look at all the tools at our disposal due to work commitments, as such sometimes I miss out on vital information.

Just some notes on these because I have not talked about them much:

Conti-Cycles:

-Regular Cycles: Occur in Uptrends and Downtrends, sideways markets
-Inverted Cycles: Occur in Uptrends and Downtrends, sideways markets

-A Regular Cycle MUST follow an Inverted Cycle or vice versa. After that the rhythm can change

-Allow 1-3 days leeway for probable targets. So your 10th Dec date could also be 7th Dec or 13th Dec but as I have a strong fib time cluster on the 10th as well which I indicated last week, it looks like being good

-Conti Cycles should be used in conjunction with PTT’s (Price Time Target) lines to ascertain price targets as well


-Conti Cycles are most effective in sideways or Choppy markets. In strongly trending markets you will be hard pressed to find them and results if you do are not consistent.


At present I am working on a methodology that combines both price and time to for a PTV (price Time Vector). Once this is done, then certain sacred geometric shapes can be formed like squares and triangles to determine with better accuracy in highly trending markets a more accurate time target

Re your concern with price action chewing up time
by Feb/March. I don't see this as a concern as the time taken for the remainder of a triangle (if that is what it is?) as well as w5 would easily be enough to reach late Feb

Cheers

(Message edited by skyhawk on December 03, 2010)


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billt
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 12:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Something like this:




If the 10 Dec can slide a few days, it might make the pattern become a little more equilateral for the Triangle pattern...the i of 3 by 10 Dec looks fine?


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ehmu
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 12:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks:

Hope I catch you all before you head out surfing.

I welcome a discussion on expanding triangles (RST). You know, the kind of discussion where you talk and I listen.

Let me lead in a bit by saying that I can identify one on a chart, don't know where the EW count goes after E, and during these patterns have lost more than half the total money that I have made trading.

I know that this is a treacherous pattern, but not really sure where they start, where they end or how. Because they are a triangle, I guess that they can be found in a wave 1, 5, A, and C.

I have tried to research the subject before, without too much success.

If you could find one (or a fractal) to discuss in the current price charts that would be great. Or refer to the one on my string "Perception is Reality".
https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?6/2737734#POST164 608

thanks in advance

Hal




_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 02:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I've been out and only just arrived back. Any of the scenarios you mention are possible for sure so all we can do is to see what pans out. So far the suggested EW count for the XJO that I posted earlier remains valid. It should be a 3 wave move down to the 4670 region in the first wave (wave a) and we are probably in the midst of a lower level wave 'b' at present.

I personally will not be doing anything with my current shares until the latter half of next week unless something obviously bad develops.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 02:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Even though you may not have talked about those Conti wave cycle things before I had come the the same understanding about them anyway.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 03:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Corrective waves are the the most complex items in EW analysis because they come is so many different varieties. As Prechter says, corrective patterns fall into four main categories:

Zigzag: (5-3-5); includes 3 types; single, double and triple

Flat: (3-3-5); includes 3 types; regular,expanded and running

Triangle: (3-3-3-3-3); includes 4 types; 3 of contracting variety (ascending, descending and symmetrical+ and 1 of the expanding variety (reverse symmetrical)

Combination: includes 2 types; Double 3 and Triple 3

When you see a somewhat sideways moving corrective wave with multiple waves you need to be sure that it actually is a Triangle and not a Double or Triple 3.

Now you specifically asked about Expanding Triangles and when they start and finish.






The wave that immediately precedes the wave A and follows the wave E of an Expanding Triangle will be an impulsive wave of some type. If the ET is the fourth wave of an impulse wave then the pattern preceding the wave A will be an impulse wave whereas if the pattern preceding the wave A of the ET is either a wave 1 of an impulse or the final wave of a prior corrective pattern then that preceding wave will be either an impulse or an ending diagonal.

The first wave after wave E of an ET will be either an impulse or an ending diagonal (ie, both types of waves are impulsive in nature).

Now to be very clear, when I talk about the wave preceding a wave A or following a wave E I am talking about those waves that are at the same level as the wave A or wave E.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, December 03, 2010 - 03:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal

If you click onto 'Archive through July 17, 2010' of this thread, you will find Rudy's posts which also referred to the item:

3596 10 July 10 ‘EW Cheat Sheet’

3629 16 July 10 ‘Triangle Corrective Patterns’

3630 16 July 10 ‘EW Course Material’

Looking at your latest entry on your thread it is interesting to see that you have the 'next low' on 7 December. That could align to either the wave 2 low, or indeed a possible wave c of a Contracting Triangle.

The issue is that you will not know it is a Triangle until after the fact. Wave D & E often will look like a wave i, Wave D is however a corrective pattern, so that gives you a clue...

If you were swing trading the minor corrections you might use your system and possibly the W%14/W%3 system of Dolphin to try to trade the index....a very tough exercise I feel!

If you are position trading for the entire Wave 5 action buying in at the Wave A, C, and E positions reduces risk perhaps. If the D & E doesn't eventuate you might miss out on the rally.

Obviously few investors rely only on one tool in the box, so EW goes only so far....


Did that answer the query?

Bill


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billt
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To complete the options available on the XJO, is for a full abc correction.

This might deliver Andrew's '5 Dec low date +/- 3 days' to achieve a full abc correction, with c = a. This would require a 5% trip south. Wave 4 would then be complete, and Wave 5 heads north.

Rudy's '10 Dec high date +/- 3 days' might have to push to the latest window to remain valid, with a quick 5% back north.

A lot less likely than all the other options, as there are multiple resistance levels and MAs to trash, but it's an option:





Wave 4s do what you least expect, so presenting all the crazy ideas that align with the Delta or the Conti and Wave 4 EW paths is worth the effort to understand the risks.

My own thought is that the 'red' count above is the 80% favorite, over the others....but the correction south will tell us the answer..


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ehmu
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Saturday, December 04, 2010 - 01:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Rudy and Bill:

Thank you for your responses.

I will need to study them for a while, as well as the three references you mentioned Bill for Rudys posts this July.

I need to do some more work on the foundations before I can discuss EW things here. I understand most of the forms, but the detailed rules are quite daunting for my particular mind set.

I was hoping for a flash of something to use for direction when in the midst of an RST, but you both indicate that this type of inspiration from EW regarding RST's is unlikely.

From a trading perspective, everything that I have in my tool box is telling me that we are headed south, but your collective analysis sees a higher wave 5 coming. I have to respect your assessment, so for now I'm out of the markets.

I have a rule in my trading plan that I've seldom been able to follow----"When in doubt, get out!".

Bill, I think that I mislabelled the leading and second waves for the triangle on my perception chart, maybe you could comment on that. Did I miss it or were you saying that because of the structure of wave D that this is not an RST forming.

thanks again for your help




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rdumas
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Saturday, December 04, 2010 - 07:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

If you look at the chart for the XJO that I posted yesterday you will see that the length of the third wave is 221.4% the range of the first wave.

You may recall my continuing suggesting to always look for wave equality in a Zigzag pattern as that is the most common occurrence of that pattern. The next most likely occurences are where the third wave is either 61.8% or 161.8% of the range of the first wave. Once you go beyond the 161.8% range then the probability of the pattern being an impulse rather than a Zigzag increases significantly.

On that basis I would suggest that highest probability by far is that we will not be plunging downward. In my opinion the low is well and truly in place for the XJO for this part of the pattern.

My personal Delta charts had suggested a low for the XJO occurring between the 22nd of November and the end of the month and that is what I have been saying in my market wrap for a few weeks now. We had low on the 24th and as far as I'm concerned that fits perfectly within the time frame.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Saturday, December 04, 2010 - 08:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Given that there was a low on the 24th Nov and then multiple retests of that low up till 1st Dec, looks like you Delta got very lucky this time.

You would be hard pressed to have this happen more than 2-3 times a year with Delta.
Just look at the last high when the market topped early..


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billt
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Saturday, December 04, 2010 - 05:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

Unfortunately, you will need to do the 'hard yards' by reading Rudy's earlier July 2010 notes thoroughly...I suggest you print off the 'course notes' and the 'cheat sheet' and have them close by when you read Rudy's posts and Weekend Wrap.

What EW helps to do is to identify forthcoming patterns. Wave 4's generally are very frustrating and one common corrective pattern in a Wave 4 is a 'Contracting Triangle' or alternatively a 'Triple 3'.

Eliminating the available options helps define what lies possibly ahead - it helps to increase the probability of the correct outcome.

Rudy & Andrew use different cycle techniques to assist in defining turning points. Coupled together with Randall's Astro Charts & Barry's Fib work further help define the possible outcome in pattern, time, & price.

Rudy's last post to me 4392, reminded me - again - that 'once you go beyond the 161.8% range then the probability of the pattern being an impulse rather than a Zigzag increases significantly'....I'll try to explain?


The issue where EW helps in confirming the termination of a corrective pattern, is the wave length of the exiting impulsive wave north. Considering the impulsive wave north on the SPX over the past few days it would appear that it is more probable that the Wave 4 correction has completed, and that a further corrective pattern within Wave 4 is now highly unlikely.

So that lowers the probability of the Contracting Triangle playing out greatly, and gives a much higher probability that Wave 5 has commenced.

If you look at the 'Cheat Sheat' you will see that a Wave B of a Contracting Triangle must be some form of Zigzag. Now the final leg of a Zigzag can be 'impulsive' but as Rudy states 'once you go beyond the 161.8% range then the probability of the pattern being an impulse rather than a Zigzag increases significantly'.....soooo, the chances of a continuation of a Wave C down to continue the Wave 4 pattern is now highly unlikely...

Wave i of 5 looks like it may push up a little further to the 1233 level on Monday before commencing a trip south in Wave ii of 5 to 1197/1207 level to meet up with the wave (iv) zone of wave i of 5 and the 50/62% fib retracements...we should have an 8% rally north after that for the wave iii of 5....

Rudy might correct me on some of this Hal, but I hope that helps.


bill


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rdumas
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Saturday, December 04, 2010 - 08:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

A very good explanation including the 'having to do the hard yards'. Unlike just about any other form of technical analysis, EW is learned by going over the rules many times and then practicing for many, many years. I have only been doing it since the beginning of 2009 but my study has been highly focussed and many hours a day.

I have had several EW analysts tell me that it takes many years to start to really get the hang of it which is why I laugh when critics have a cursory read of the subject and then bag it. They are in no position to criticise it because they could not possibly understand it enough to enable them to do so.

By the way Bill, one of the reasons why I doubt that there will be a move down below the low set on the 24th November is my view that this low was an MTD low for the XJO. Now Andrew rightly points out that these tops and bottoms do slide around somewhat which is why we can never be 100% sure that I am correct. If I am incorrect then it will have to form a bottom in the coming week because it is running out of time from a Delta perspective.

Now if I am correct, then we should see the market stay above the low of the 24th and work its way up to a new MTD high sometime towards the end of December/early January.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Sunday, December 05, 2010 - 12:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys, Rudy and Bill:

Thanks for your explanations, I appreciate your commitment and patience. I also realize that there are the four pillars included in Rudys presentations.

I am not averse to hard yards, but a little unsure at this juncture if I have enough time in this lifetime to do justice to the learning experience.

Learning EW seems a little like assembling a massive jig saw puzzle that is made up of unique pieces. If a person somehow managed to assemble the puzzle, one would realize that each piece of the puzzle is actually another puzzle in itself. And then again later it will happen at another lower level or higher level of integration.

Then the next step would be to apply the knowledge to a wiggly squirming uncooperative entity made up of the micro decisions taken by an unpredictable mass of irrational human beings.

I hope that you don't think that I was discounting the complexity or value of the outcome Rudy, I can imagine full well what is involved.

I dove back in to the archives, and see that there is more than enough material there for me to stay busy. I also have the cheat sheet that Rudy re-issued a couple of weeks ago.

Thanks again for your help.

H




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ehmu
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Sunday, December 05, 2010 - 11:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




skyhawk wrote on Friday, December 03, 2010 - 12:17 pm:

then certain sacred geometric shapes




Hi Andrew:

This comment may or may not be relevent, but what the heck, I'm not doing a dissertation, or writing a book after all.

Your quote popped in to my mind when I encountered the factor of 1.41 when reducing the period of the co-mingled waves of the US dollar vs the VIX.

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?6/2737734#POST164 700

The significance of 1.41 (SQRT 2) to me is that the RMS value for a sine wave is equal to the "peak" amplitude of the wave divided by SQRT2. To electrical engineers, this RMS term is used to define the "effective" voltage in a sine wave.

This may seem a little off the wall, but the mathematical integration of the apparent period of a complex sine wave, by one order may be 1.41.

Just seemed like too much of a coincidence not to mention.

H




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rdumas
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Monday, December 06, 2010 - 10:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Struggles Monday Morning


The 61.8% retrace level (4700.63) of the April 15th plunge in the XJO is proving to be a strong overhead resistance at this point in time. Whilst the UBB is sitting at 4739 there does not seem to be enough energy in the index to go above the current levels.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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In spite of my earlier resolution to ride out the larger moves it would appear that my short term trader personality got the better of me. As indicated in my market wrap this week end, with the SPX likely to complete it's impulse wave (i) early this week and the possibility that wave (ii) will possibly give up a reasonably large portion of the (i) profits I decided to pocket my profits this morning and see what transpires with the retracement.

I had a fairly significant amount invested so whilst the percentage return wasn't huge, the absolute amount was satisfactory and it was obtained in relative safety.

Now whilst the Conti cycles still points to some further upward movement, I suspect that by the end of the week we will be lower than we are currently so to me it wasn't worth while staying in the market.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, December 06, 2010 - 05:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

This count puts us nearing the completion of wave (iii) of 5, rather than nearing the completion of (i) of 5.

Considering the length of the original wave 1 off the 1010 low, and the February target high, if this count plays out it may be an initial nested pattern within a much larger run.

Chew it over and let me know what ya' think.






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ehmu
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 04:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There are just no clear signals for the bears these days. --all together now "Awwwwww, poo.... bears".

The daily for the US dollar looks like a clear bounce off of the 34ema to the upside. There is also a bounce of the RSI off the 50 & the upward price trend line, which says we're not done rising on the $us. (go bears go)

But when you look at the 15min chart for the $, it sure looks like a foundering bearish flag to me. (bully, bully, bully)

What do you see ?????









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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 09:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Your count is certainly a valid count from an EW perspective but doesn't really agree with the Delta count that I have for the S&P500 unless the impulse waves you have labelled are only a sub waves of a higher level wave 1 of wave 5.

There are numerous valid counts at present that apply including one were we are about to enter a wave c of wave 4. What all of the positive counts have in common is that we either have made or are close to making an intermediate top and hence should see some downward movement. Depending on which count is correct will determine how far the market will drop.

One thing that Delta suggests is that we will definitely make a higher low than the 1173 on the SPX on the 16th November or the 4551.2 for the XJO on the 24th November. Delta also suggests that we will make an interim high in late December/early January. Whether that is a wave 3 at some level or not remains to be seen. For it to be able to do this would mean that any drop now would either have to be reasonably small or fast or we will run out of time to meet that parameter.

Currently the SPX is struggling to get past the 1226 in spite of the UBB beckoning it to go to the 1233 level.

The next few days will see whether the interim top is in or we go just a fraction higher.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 10:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Is your count from post 4332 dead in the water ??

Your scenario 2 at that time.

best

Hal




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ehmu
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 11:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



from post 4332 rudy






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billt
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 11:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy,

I'll be looking out for the SPX low c. 16th December

One thing I forgot to add previously was that I was unaware that both you & Andrew were running separate Delta counts - although with very minor differences. Some of my earlier posts assumed there was only one count, so that led to some incorrect observations on my behalf.

Also Hal it is worth noting, as Rudy has suggested, that the main EW counts at present (awaiting the start of ii of 5, iv of 5, wave c of 4, or the conclusion of a truncated 5th!) are all awaiting a pullback to the south. The W%14 looks to be setting up for a trip through the -20% region, and Rudy's Delta date of 16 Dec looks appealing for the wave c/4 or ii or iv/5 counts....

The $USD, Gold & Silver, & US Small Caps all went up = Confusion/Uncertainty!


bill


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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 12:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

The count is still valid from an EW perspective but doesn't agree with my Delta stuff at this stage because if my Delta is correct, we should not be able to do down below the low of the 24th November. The above count would take the market down way below that level.

For that reason alone I am discounting it at present.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 01:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I can't recall ever talking about a low on the 16th December. Could you point out where I made that comment please.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 01:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bill:

Yes, I guess I lost my bearings a little bit since I could find a lot of text descriptions of the wave development, but not too many charts that connect the minuette, sub-minuette, minute, minor,intermediate and primary.

I think that I have the connection now. We are working on a minute circle ii wave of a minor wave 5 of an intermediate wave (C)----or we are working on a minute circle iv wave of a minor wave 5 of and intermediate wave (C)-----or we are working on a minute circle c wave of a minor wave 4 of an intermediate wave (C)----or we are working on the conclusion of a truncated minor wave 5 of an intermediate wave (C).

Is that right ?






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ehmu
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 01:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 01:58 pm:

The count is still valid from an EW perspective but doesn't agree with my Delta stuff




thanks Rudy, I'll refer to the Delta stuff.

Hal




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gdd3
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 01:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Ehmu... a lighthearted question to you. Which hour of the day do you sleep?; it never ceases to amaze me the times you are posting on this forum...just an unquenchable appetite to monitor ALL markets or is it just a case of insomnia?

Oh well, I'm back to my afternoon snooze...well the cricket has finished and that made me verrrry sleepy! But then again, you wouldn't understand what I'm referring too as you "maple-leavers" only understand one game...ICE HOCKEY...and you never fall asleep during one of those games, right!

Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 02:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

I have been slack lately in terms of using the correct labelling convention used by Prechter and outlined in my earlier EW lecture notes because I didn't want to continually talk about waves "circle X" all the time.

When only looking at a couple of levels on a chart I quite often revert to a non standard labelling convention because it still gives people an idea about what you are saying.

So verbalising what is shown in the chart below, we are nearing completion of Minute wave circle i of Minor wave 1 which once complete will also complete wave Intermediate wave (C) and Primary wave Circle B.





Note that the assumptions in the above EW count are:

1) That Intermediate wave 5 is extending

2) That Minor wave (C) is an impulse wave and not an ending diagonal. Based on past performance of the XJO there is every possibility that in fact it will be an ending diagonal and hence we will get overlapping waves for this pattern.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 02:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It's pretty obvious that I pulled the pin a bit early as we near completion of the final wave of this impulse move. It's starting to look as if the Conti cycle is still in play. If so tomorrow would be the earliest that the cycle would top for this wave.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 03:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry Rudy - I misread something from you...my mistake!

Rudy, your XJO count needs to be a nested i/ii rather than a 3/4 as 4 overlaps 1.... I'm not sure how XJO will 'catch up' to the SPX count in the future, with XJO in a wave 3 and SPX in a wave 5, unless XJO explodes out of the blocks at some stage and posts a higher high than the Nov top? XJO is in a 'i of iii of 3', which seems miles behind SPX on 'v of i of 5' ???

The July leg of this count always looked more like a corrective 3 waver in a 5/3/5 format to me, as did the September/October leg...






Hal, re your post 181...looks like you've got it! I too, talk in EW 'short hand' at times, I must remember to add a bit more to give better guidance to what I am saying....





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billt
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 04:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Re post 572: XJO

My last chart (green lettering) perhaps is suggesting a Zigzag 5/3/5 down from the April high to the July low; then a cor-cor-cor arrangement to the November high?

A Zigzag followed by a Double 3? Then another corrective down to the recent low?

An odd looking chart?


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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 07, 2010 - 07:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I agree with your comments about the nested 1/2's instead of the 1234 because wave 3 looks too overlapping to be fair dinkum. That is why I did have the nested 1/2's solution not long ago.

Like you though I wonder how the XJO will ever catch up with the SPX if it is in the early stages of a wave 3 and the SPX is in a wave 5.

I've mentioned a few times that I follow both indices because there are times when one is easier to read than the other. They appear to take turns. At this stage the SPX is easy to read from an EW perspective and the XJO is far more difficult. This is possibly because they have similar Delta charts and hence I have assumed that the EW patterns should not be all that different. This of course may be totally incorrect and this is why I'm having difficulty feeling confident about the XJO EW count. For that reason I am only looking at the XJO on a short term basis with respect to the EW count and not getting too caught up with it.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - 12:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello again Dolphin:

Yes, it's all very hard to keep track of these time differences. You and I are 18hours apart, so I wonder the same things about you folks.

I'm retired now, but worked in the oil patch on international assignments. It was so irritating to be calculating time differences always that I started wearing two watches (until they started making them that made the distinction). I sleep from 9pm to 6am local time.

I would sleep longer, but for the coffee. Like cat_lady, coffee is what allows me to get up and stay up after 6am.

Then there's the climate dolphin, it is a wonder that anyone sleeps here, ever try sleeping when it's -20 celcius.

Hockey's great, 30 teams, 2500 games (all televised) packed in to six months. No need for viagra here in the winter.

best
Hal




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ehmu
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Username: ehmu

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Registered: 08-2010

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Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - 12:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi there Bill and Rudy:

Thanks for the clarifications.

Sorry for the imposition(I'm positive you guys know which end of the candle is up). Just hard to keep track sometimes, seems like it's when we slide in and out of the intraday time zones.

best

Hal

ps
I wonder what the xjo would look like in time sensitive $US. And what will happen to it when AUD/USD = 1.99 ?









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rdumas
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Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - 06:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

I was looking for the SPX to hit the 1233 as a possible top and it breached that today. I would be very surprised it that isn't the top of this wave 1 pattern. Mind you I do get surprised fairly often.





(Message edited by rdumas on December 08, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
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