You need to register separately on the Chart Forum
- see Chart Forum Help
Edit Profile Profile Help Help
Forum Rules Forum Rules Advanced Help/Instructions Advanced Help
Search Last 1|3|7 Days Latest Posts Latest Posts
Search Search Forum Tree View Tree View
   
Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Non Elliott Wave Watching

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Non Elliott Wave Watching

««  Previous  Next  »»


 
Thread Start New Thread 
Last Poster Posts Pages Last Post
Archive through August 09, 2011rdumas50 09-Aug-11  10:32 am
Archive through June 23, 2011rdumas50 23-Jun-11  08:32 am
Archive through May 11, 2011rdumas50 11-May-11  08:41 am
Archive through April 29, 2011billt50 29-Apr-11  03:56 pm
Archive through April 02, 2011ehmu50 02-Apr-11  12:52 am
Archive through March 14, 2011billt50 14-Mar-11  10:29 am
Archive through February 24, 2011billt50 24-Feb-11  09:13 am
         

Author Message

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rash
Member
Username: rash

Post Number: 205
Registered: 07-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 12:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hola,

Pity we can't get DJI data going back further than 23 years.

But those Fibonacci levels are fairly standard for Bears.

dji


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rash
Member
Username: rash

Post Number: 206
Registered: 07-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 12:56 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Or, alternatively, we could forget labels altogether and simply declare it a giant, long-term, range-trading phase ... with, apparently, quite distinct and fairly reliable horizontal Price divisions.

spx







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5033
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 01:43 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

The nice part is that once we get the 5 waver completed for the first significant leg down, it gives us some indication as to where we may end up at the end of it all.


So for example if we took todays low of 3765 then we would be looking at somewhere around 2554. As we probably haven't quite finished the slide down yet perhaps 2500 as a nice round number.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 987
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 02:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi guys


another thought from your resident bi-polar...


Price action looks disturbing like the 3-3 Down phase of the 2008 correction:






Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5035
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 02:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I think you will find that this is what I've been implying in all of my posts. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough in my communications.

Did you notice that I also posted in the Cycles thread?


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5036
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 03:07 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Showing Some Promise

This is a snapshot of the XJO 10 day 15 minute intraday taken around 1440hrs today.

We've had a buy on the W%R at an extreme low. Now to wait patiently for the Idiot signal on the daily.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 1484
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 03:36 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I remember posting the first 'comparison" chart shown here in FEB(10th) when discussion was "ripe" about a possible top in the XJO in place and therefore a likely "hedge" play by moving into EFT Gold. How fortuitous was that call(pitty neither of us didn't hold, aye Rudy!)

Anyway, the second chart is an update of that comparison highlighting the "once in a blue moon" chance we had(especially the last three weeks, ay! Its also interesting to note where the (gold coloured) parallels from the June 2010 highs come in at present levels with the lower one representing EFTGold's high(171.05). Still room above(~ 175) but don't be surprised if 158-160 will be seen first as our XJO goes through a "relief" rally that just may have started today.







Cheers
Dolphin


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 988
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 04:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey guys

Good chart there Dolphin on GOLD...any pullback in XJO invariably has an effect on the forex too, which again helps the cause. Double wammy. Gold to $2000-$2500, and Silver to $100 - some say?


Thanks Rudy for those posts and on the other threads.


Interesting to note on $CPCE that we are again reaching a possible near top, but with some more ground possibly to go.

$NYA200R has some more room to the downside if needed, to run to lower signal digits. (see my earlier post 985)

However, $NYSI shows an alternative view that this carnage could have a lot to go. The RSI often is in oversold position for well over 6-8 weeks - and the current print has only just reached there? The 2008-09 lows are way south of the current values giving plenty of scope. My EW Count seems to give some potential to that idea, in that we are in a nested iii-3 pattern, and possibly just beginning a iii-iii-3 crash position. I understand that the most important 3-yr cycle is scheduled to bottom in October, which accords with the $NYSI timing possibility...it will be interesting to get Andrew's read on that issue too. If that occurs, the other indicators highlighted here would simply flat line....

Full Moon 'low' @ 13 August 2:58 PM (NYC), and plenty of spooky back wash from that Solar event this week, so if the $CPCE & $NYA200R signal, we may get that counter rally.

..conversely, the perma bears have the $NYSI to dream to!


I will be watching my 15/30/60 min charts for the Bear/Bull swing trade signals. +100% gain on TZA in 11 days, using the swing indicators.....














Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 592
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, August 10, 2011 - 02:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 02:33 pm:

Price action looks disturbing like the 3-3 Down phase of the 2008 correction:




I like your wave 3 down termination at 100%, it has a rhyme to it.

From my daily chart attached, I inverted the fib so I could see the 76%.

Looks like the next stop downward is around 1020 (50%) unless Randalls crash potential materializes right on Q on the 10TH.

The dark vertical line is friday 12th, the last trading day before the full moon.




_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 990
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, August 10, 2011 - 10:35 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Hal,

Trust your indicator session...


Massive Divergence on the 60 min at the 1101 bottom was a Killer Indicator...'humungous' volume on TNA as we headed towards the bottom.

9 waves down - 3 waves up (abc)...





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 594
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 12:44 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Yes, you're definitely right about the divergence.

At the moment, it looks like I missed another selling opportunity at the close (buying TZA that is).

Also, had I been at my computer at 3pm when the mother boards took over, I would have seen the move up on the 2min or 5min for the Russell and would have purchased some TNA and held until 3:55.

However, I wasn't, I didn't, and "if the dog had caught the beeper" , well things might be different.




_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 595
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 12:50 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 12:44 am:

At the moment, it looks like I missed another selling opportunity at the close (buying TZA that is).




Sorry, I forgot to mention, yesterdays flash rally in to the close magically stopped in its tracks at the long term trend line that I had put on my IC charts some time ago.

What incredible power this charting has, faster than a speeding bullet, jumps tall buildings in a single bound.




_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 597
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 05:43 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bull or Bear

Remember, this isn't just jargon, this defines the trend.

I attached a chart below for the SPY, and some may argue that other indexes represent more of what they are interested in. So let them post a chart that parallels this one.

When you look at the chart, you will see that there is a particular line that defines the trend. It looks like it is the 21 month weighted moving average.

When using the monthly charts for analysis, an analyst has to (must invariably without exception) wait until the close of that candle before applying his/her accepted rules.

Now, I have a question for you. Do you think that the price can recover to above say 1240 before the end of the month. If you believe that, then there is still hope for the bullish bias. We have already recovered 60 of 140points below the 21wma on the SPX, so there are about 80 points left for the bulls to make up to get us back in to bullish territory.

If you want to be more convinced, check out the number of times on the attached chart that price has recovered after crossing the 21wma(candle close). I might add, please look back to August of '98 and you will find one such occurence. And as a trivial point of interest, November 98 is the exact point that the buyers re-took control at $1100 after the dip (within $2 of the bounce that we had this week).

hmmm, could this possibly be a strong support level ??







XJO---Will xjo recover above the lower bb (70 points), or will it remain in the 3std deviation down mode ???

She would need to rise to 4604 before month end to recover an upward bias. Not saying anything, but these days---it-could-happen !






and Moose moss country---Canada, eh




_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 992
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 09:13 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

Anything is possible...

I look at the Monthly chart of $SPX and clearly the indicators and price action are not dissimilar to the final crash in 2008. The Weekly Charts are not oversold, and a trip south is still very possible. Whether we get there in a powerful 5 wave down push, or a 5/3/5 down pattern is the question...the last two weeks suggests the former at this juncture.

The Daily Charts are still on a sell, with overbought conditions, but as in 2008 these conditions can prevail for months.

I keep a simple focus on the 'minute charts' to give me what I need to trade my day.

The 60 min VIX chart tells me the trend is still in place. As I am expecting a wave 4 at this point, I am pleased to see that $VIX (and most other indices) is kindly printing out a CT for me at present. The trend is in place, and the indicators look Ok for a continuation of this down trend. The VIX RSI is above the 50 and not dissimilar to the print as it was on 2/3 August - we know what happened next! Full Moon over the weekend, so perhaps time for an aggressive wave 5 down over the next few trading days....

The 5 min TZA chart shows massive gains playing momentum on TZA/TNA. Well over 100% momentum shifts in 2 days alone...

A possible abc has already carved out for a wave 4, with a possible i-5 print at the close? Wave 4 may however have a final c-4 leg high to go on SPX.

If the prices want to continue the plunge I'll be on that boat, but if we rally to put in a higher wave c-4 on $SPX, I'll be there too! The 'minute charts' will tell me what is going on...










Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 598
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 10:33 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Good on you. Exciting stuff, even if there were 50% slippage. You earn every penny.


I don't have the time or the set-up to day trade. On occasion when I can devote the whole day to trading I'll take one, but generally I'm not able to baby-sit the trade.

I like reading about your conquests, so keep the reports coming. I'm all ears.

.............

_______________________________


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5040
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 11:52 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Support


At this point in time the XJO remains on support at the present levels.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 1489
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 12:55 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

IS OUR MARKET SAYING "STUFF" YOU US/EUROPE, WE ARE GOING HIGHER?....well to fill some gaps and maybe satisfy some Fibo Range extensions. As mentioned in my post last night, I'm now favouring the 4250/4265 area in this little run B4 we "FALL OVER" again.

}


Cheers
Dolphin}


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 993
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 03:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Guys

Do the RSI, MACD, STO indicators on your 5/15/60 min XJO charts give any added help to show imminent momentum directional movement? I do not have access to them at present...

Interested to see how that double top on XJO looks on the indicators...?

The 'yanky doodle' minute charts have given me great 'tells'.... particularly the divergences on rsi, etc, as tops and bottoms occur. (eg. The VIX 60 min chart above gave 'killer' rsi divergence signals at the recent bottom, enabling an early entry on the RUT bull run)


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 1492
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 04:09 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi BillT,

Here's those oscillators on my 10min chart I posted above. Not too sure if its of any benefit now.





(Message edited by colin_twiggs on August 30, 2011)


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5041
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 04:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I tend to agree with you. My Delta suggested that the bottom would come in the current time frame and I tend to think that the low is in place. From the Delta perspective then we should be in for a few weeks of upward movement.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 995
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 05:30 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks G,

thanks for those G..

I guess the minute indicators are useful for the intra day moves, but the lead from Wall St normally trumps the XJO open and whatever the minute indicators were saying at the previous close..

With the futures suggesting a gap up open on $SPX @ c.1240 with 6 hours to the open, prices will hold just within the VIX CT, but the VIX CT looks like it might break tonight one way or the other...

As we are in 4 of iii of 3, I'm surprised Rudy that we go higher for several weeks, prior to completing iii of 3...I'm sure your Wrap will cover it...I would have thought we might run south for a few more days during the Full Moon , before a longer time framed iv of 3 correction? The VIX seems still be holding the up trend for now...


good weekend guys

B


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 600
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 12, 2011 - 01:29 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 03:24 pm:

Do the RSI, MACD, STO indicators on your 5/15/60 min XJO charts give any added help to show imminent momentum directional movement? I do not have access to them at present...




I thought that you were posting some intraday charts with those indicators on them, so bad assumption on my part that your platform has them.

I have those indicators but don't use them for intraday triggers. Further, I'm finding that the volatility is so extreme presently that using the 60min charts tells me what happened but doesn't allow me to react to the action. For day trading I'm using the 1min, 2min and 5min charts.

My main trigger is candlestick Price pattern breaks.

After price, my platform gives me real time alerts on trend line breaks, which is my secondary trigger. I use W%R/ROC overlay as my third level trigger. I use Randall's canaries as my fourth level trigger (5/13/34 CCI).

H



_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 601
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 12, 2011 - 01:47 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 05:30 pm:

I would have thought we might run south for a few more days during the Full Moon




The most recent new moon put in a lower price than the prior full moon, not sure what our statisticians would say about that other than it may be a freak occurence, or outside of two standard deviations.


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5043
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 12, 2011 - 10:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Not sure what the intent of that last comment in your post 601 was. At no time do we infer that market lows only occur at Full Moons and market highs only occur at New Moons. Please re-read Randall's chapter on Full Moon/New Moon dates and their correspondence with lows/highs during different market cycles.

During bear market conditions the Lunar cycles can give you quite varied results (including highs at Full Moons and lows at New Moons) as the following chart clearly shows.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 604
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, August 13, 2011 - 06:16 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Friday, August 12, 2011 - 01:47 am:

The most recent new moon put in a lower price than the prior full moon, not sure what our statisticians would say about that other than it may be a freak occurence, or outside of two standard deviations.




Hi Rudy:

Thanks for your explanation and xjo chart with conti cycle analysis in your post 5043.

In answer to your question, my intent was to hear from someone qualified in statistical analysis (statistician) regarding the probability of another occurence where prices during the full moon might be higher than the price during the following new moon period.

I would use this information to weigh my response to price action early next week after the full moon mood is confirmed.

Although I use std deviation and average true range on some of my charts, I am not practiced at calculating the likelihood of re-occurences of high deviation.

It is a good opportunity to promote Randall's book; I do have a copy and have read it several times.

http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/eyeofra.html

You make a very good point that Randall didn't say anything about always or never in his book. Randall's generalizations about moods of the moon are very specific to a select narrow time frame. Your brief description of downage during bear markets is sort of where my suspicions about recurrence might be headed.

It would be true to form for me to be buying the full moon and selling the new moon, when in fact I should be shorting the new moon and covering the full moon in bearish markets. This sort of mistake I would prefer to avoid.

h


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rash
Member
Username: rash

Post Number: 207
Registered: 07-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, August 13, 2011 - 09:16 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It would be true to form for me to be buying the full moon and selling the new moon, when in fact I should be shorting the new moon and covering the full moon in bearish markets. This sort of mistake I would prefer to avoid.

*********************************************

Hi, Hal

Thanks for the plug and I'm sure Colin won't be unduly upset by a brief diversion here.

The "generalisations" ARE very specific.

The Idiot determines whether the market being traded is in a short, intermediate or long-term Bull or Bear phase - and that determines the probability of a profit from a Moon phase trade.

If you go back over the tables on Pages 23 and 24, it has historically been a bad idea to take Full Moon/New Moon Longs during a confirmed Bear phase.

However, there has been a probability of Long profit during the brief FM-3Q phase. In confirmed Bears, the overall probability is for very significant losses holding on for the extra period 3Q-NM.

Also overall, during a confirmed Bear phase, the biggest profits come from Shorting 1Q-FM, which is fairly clear from the table on Page 23.

The book makes several points at the end of that chapter.

During confirmed uptrends, by far the biggest percentage of the gains come during the two-week period each month between the Full Moon and the New Moon.

It is relatively safe to Short the market during a confirmed uptrend only during the 7 days between the First Quarter and Full Moon.

In a confirmed Bearish market, there is NO safe overall phase to put your capital at risk on
Long positions.

***

I'm not sure I would characterise those as "generalisations".

Trading is a complex business - at times. However, it is quite clear, in terms of the overall probabilities, that "buying the full moon and selling the new moon" during a Bear phase is a high-risk move.

Warm regards - RA

Moons


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 605
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, August 13, 2011 - 10:38 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall:

Thank you for the explanation, I appreciate it.

Colin explained to me before that he would prefer that people not post links that compete with the IC site for hit counts. If I remember the details correctly, it is because search engines use hit counts to prioritise their returns pages to surfers.

If your site competes with his in this regard, then I owe him an apology.

best
h


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 1495
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, August 13, 2011 - 10:39 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rash...re: your posting immediately above!

A "print-worthy" reference summary of your book in these Bear times...Thanks!



Thanks for your generosity.

Dolphin}}}}


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rash
Member
Username: rash

Post Number: 208
Registered: 07-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, August 13, 2011 - 11:01 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hola, Hal & Dolph

Hope that helped a little.

The Moon phase trades are profitable overall as a "statistical" tendency. However, the Bullish or Bearish phase - as determined by the state of the 3 timephase Idiots - determines which of those "assumed" Moon trades can be taken with a high degree of safety.

One also needs to take into account two other variations to improve the odds.

1. Where Price is within horizontal bands, determined either by Fibonacci or long-term (or weekly) planetary levels, and

2. Whether or not positive or negative divergence is present going into the phase ... or the horizontal "hit".

I don't think Colin will be too miffed. Both his software and his Trading Diary are promoted fairly heavily at The Idiot and I've helped a number of people configure my suggested templates in the IC software, so my site is directing return traffic his way.

And deservedly so, Colin!

Now ... must go prepare for this weekend's Eye.

Ciao, y'all!


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ken
Member
Username: ken

Post Number: 783
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 14, 2011 - 08:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

I've just been reading your weekly report and I was reminded of a trading maxim I picked up somewhere:-

"There's no such thing as resistance in a bull market and no such thing as support in a bear market"

Seems to fit what you are saying.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5053
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 16, 2011 - 02:35 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO - Overhead Resistance??






The top also closely coincided with the 61.8% retrace level of the last leg down.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 610
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, August 17, 2011 - 04:59 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



McClellan murmurs:

As of closing last night, there was a mild refrain from the down pour. See the little up turn of the eod bars on the daily charts attached.

The second chart shows the W%R indicator that demonstrates that we are not in a buy signal on the daily (barely a flicker ).

See also the positive divergence on the third chart that shows the CCI (croaking canaries indicator), that promises things to come, but will be empty promises until the short term CCI's cross zero at least.

The top part of the third chart is the "idiot". For swing traders, the daily chart average crossing might be their most aggressive buy signal using the McClellan as a guide. As you can see, the averages haven't yet crossed each other in an upward direction.

The next resistance is -2000, then -1000, then zero. A very deep hole if the object is to dig our way out of it.








_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 611
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, August 17, 2011 - 10:10 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Cracked, yes, but broken ?

Maybe, but the indicators on the charts below hint that the bulls may be hanging on by a hair. Seems like there is a cliff hanging drama to almost every close these days.

thanks also to Rudy and Boomer for your ew charts on the spx subject.









_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 1012
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, August 17, 2011 - 06:21 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Mr VIX provided the 'heads up' on 22 July, and reconfirmed the sell off on 4 August...

Mr VIX has popped his head out once more....





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5058
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 19, 2011 - 08:00 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible XJO Support




The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 1504
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 19, 2011 - 12:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Now that your lower possible support has been taken out I'm guessing we need to look somewhere within the 4075/4045(green) band on 1st chart which also encompasses the 50% retracement of the current 'rally' out of last week's low.

Looking at the micro wave structure whether we are 'pegging-out' a ABC or a 12345 down depends on the nature of the upcoming bounce from today's/tomorrow's low. Man, its got to go above 4260(wave A/1 low on both charts) for us to negate an impulse wave down and therefore ultimately lower than the 50% retracement level on this current leg down. Of course the near-term low I am looking for could just be a WAVE {A} of a WAVE{ABC} for a correction of the impulse move out of last week's low...again, the nature of the upcoming rally should clarify this.






Cheers

Dolphin

P.S. Thanks to you, Billt, Ehmu and I guess also p3t3
for keeping the I.C. Forum "AFLOAT"!

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on August 30, 2011)


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 1018
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 19, 2011 - 12:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



..hey Dolphin


XJO...Or was that price action from 8th August a wave ii-3 or wave 4 zigzag, imp/cor/ed, and todays print is the beginning of wave iii-3 or 5 DOWN?






Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 1019
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 19, 2011 - 01:07 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 1020
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 19, 2011 - 01:31 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...it's a worry!






Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5060
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 19, 2011 - 02:05 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

There are just too many EW possibilities to consider so I won't bother. For the time being I'll just watch to see how the various Fib levels hold up.





Unfortunately the Conti Cycles don't really give much help either.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 1506
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 19, 2011 - 04:10 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi and thanks Rudy/Bill...

Rudy said..."There are just too many EW possibilities to consider so I won't bother"...

How true and for this exact reason I was only concentrating on the "nature" of the move from Wednesday's high in order to justify a possible support zone for this current down move not necessarily focussing on EWC's(otherwise I would have posted it on the EW thread)but more the AP's, trendlines and parallel's I had drawn as an update to your previous chart showing possible supports for today(only)....ANYWAY, ALL BL..DY GUESS WORK, RIGHT!

With this in mind, for what it is worth, here is an update of the 10min/10day chart I posted before with the same AP's drawn previously...they still seem to be "controlling" the swings for the last few day's.

Bill, it now looks as though we are panning out a 5-wave down from Wed's high and we are in a minute 5th...for what its worth.




Cheers and have a good weekend Guys.

Dolphin


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 617
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, August 20, 2011 - 10:09 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



McClellan and Russell "idiot daily" style charts below show a failed attempt to cross bullishly. MACD (dashed) on the bottom print on the chart also shows the failure as well as the oversold condition.

The 5period CCI (short term canary) shows the dramatic return to despair.

We now are approaching a double bottom in price, and the McClellan actually closed 100 points lower for the week, not a positive sign for support holding next week.





H


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 641
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 02:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



FOMC POMO's INfluence

I noticed that the last two pomo's (about 400M each), seemed to create a rally on the settlement date(the day following each treasury auction).

This is demonstrated on the attached first chart.

The pomo this morning sold 3.5B (10 times as much as the previous two).

Operation - RESULTS

Operation Date: 08/29/2011

Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase

Release Time: 10:15 AM

Close Time: 11:00 AM

Settlement Date: 08/30/2011

Maturity/Call Date Range: 11/15/2018 - 08/15/2021


Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $3,150

Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $10,016




It follows that I am going to be on the edge of my chair tomorrow morning ready for a killer rally (if it develops).

Note that today price is consolidating just above the 50% retracement of the 2008 crash on the NYSE chart. Also note the increased slope of the price trend on the 15min chart for the NYSE.

Also, the russell has broken above a previously established long term down trend today, shown as the white line on the russell chart.

All of this probable "shock and awe" in preparation for the Obama pep talk scheduled for the 5th of September I think.

They may not use the whole $3.5B tomorrow, but seem to be stock piling large ammo. Nope, no QE3 (HAH!), but watch this short squeeze with a little nepalm around the edges to warm things up a couple of degrees celcius.









_____ Hal



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 642
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 04:56 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 02:34 am:

tomorrow morning




Looks like from the chart that I should have jumped on it today.

I'll just bet that Billt didn't miss it.

ps
There are two posts that didn't put a carraige return between their charts, the same member, not to mention any names. I have asked Colin to add a carraige return so that everyone doesn't have to scroll through every post word by word.




_____ Hal



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 1039
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 07:19 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Hal

TNA gave the buy signal on Friday morning, as we had that convincing trend break.

I was expecting that the CT would play out on SPX, so I was anticipating a switch to the bears at some point..but that never happened!

We now have a rectangle set up, (an abc for wave 4), so it will be interesting to see if we get a measured move back to the 1030 target zone.

SPX is overbought on the 60 min, with minor negative divergences setting up on the 5/15/30 min charts.

Watching for the next momentum trend snap.....


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 1521
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 09:10 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ehmu and Billt...

Ehmu wrote..."ps: There are two posts that didn't put a carraige return between their charts, the same member, not to mention any names. I have asked Colin to add a carraige return so that everyone doesn't have to scroll through every post word by word."

Apologies for causing the problem you are having with reading my "side by side" charted posts; you see I wasn't aware of the problem as I don't have that issue occurring for me with any of my screens/computers...and they aren't that young!

Anyway, just for you Ehmu(ha! ha!), I will endeavour to remember to consider what others apparently see from their end.

Just one, question though, "what the hell is meant by carraige?". The only thing that came close on my search was this....and it didn't matter whether I spelt it as carriage or carraige!




signed...


the same member, not to mention any names.}}}

}}}}


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 644
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 09:21 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




gdd3 wrote on Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 09:10 am:

"what the hell is meant by carraige?".




Sorry, I meant carnage.


_____ Hal



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 646
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 09:52 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 07:19 am:

Friday morning, as we had that convincing trend break.




Hi Bill:

I reflect on your resilience every time there is a short term break.

I'm waiting for a longer set-up. There is too much uncertainty for me to put any weight in my trades, and downscaling size for the high risk is just too dinky to tie myself up for the battle with that mean and nasty mother board every day.

Just my opinion, no validity to this comment, but I think they are going to push as hard as they can to keep the markets seemingly buoyant until their president speaks in a week.

I think that there will be many whippings delivered in the next week, and I have a severe allergy to pain. I'm old, my reflexes are shot, and they weren't that great in the first place.

I'm not worried about you though, the young pup that you are.

The investment bankers probably have a contract out on you. If only they could find you---who the hell is that ghostly character that keeps sweeping away our ill gotten gains, they ask. And BTW, they say, WTF is that IP address doing moving all around the Pacific ocean like that.

Knock 'em dead willy, I'm in the stands cheering every time you get in the game.


Attaching some McClellan charts (eod bars) that promise some upside on the dailies. The first chart (my rendition of the idiot) has all the stars aligned---ma's, macd, cci's.

It isn't unanimous tho---see the second and third charts (bollingers and W%R not quite there yet). Could just wiggle waggle around under the mid-boll line and then dive to hell after Obama (boom-boom my friends call him) speaks his jive talk on monday.












_____ Hal



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 1040
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 02:47 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Hal

I continue to avoid listening to the talking heads on the the Business Channels, and simply follow what the charts say...I often turn the TV to mute!

I try not to get too overly concerned with where the markets may be in a few days, rather than concentrating on the moment.

Divergences and Trend line snaps have continued to play out on SPX. The 30 min charts has often been the most helpful, however the 5/15min charts need careful analysis too. Prices are back at resistance, so we will see how this pans out.

Although the Daily Charts have plenty of upside, I am mindful that if we are in a Wave 4, then the abc might be nearing a completion. The Rectangle set up takes us back to 1030. The alternative idea is that the 22 August low was a failed 5th. The wave south from 17th looks to me to be a zigzag, which makes that idea less probable to my mind.

I trade what I see, not what I hear....





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 651
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, September 02, 2011 - 01:42 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 02:34 am:

FOMC POMO's INfluence





The purchase or sale of Treasury securities on an outright basis adds or drains reserves available in the banking system. Such transactions are arranged on a routine basis to offset other changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in conjunction with efforts to maintain conditions in the market for reserves consistent with the federal funds target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).




Operation - RESULTS

Operation Date: 09/01/2011

Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase

Release Time: 10:15 AM

Close Time: 11:00 AM

Settlement Date: 09/02/2011

Maturity/Call Date Range: 03/15/2014 - 08/31/2015


Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $2,740

Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $16,694




Looks like we might be in for another short squeeze friday (tomorrow), ahead of Obama's speech on Monday.



_____ Hal



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 652
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, September 02, 2011 - 02:06 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Friday, September 02, 2011 - 01:42 am:

short squeeze friday (tomorrow),




Or, perhaps they will save the barrage (blaze of glory) until Tuesday, to fly ahead (what a wonderful speech) or prop things up after a possibly disgusting speech.

Please note on the attached chart, the support of the fib fan lines. But whilst negative div on the macd.





_____ Hal



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 653
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, September 02, 2011 - 05:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



~~daa daa daah, da da; daa daa daah, da da @!

~~~~~~aa' nother line bites da dust @!




Don't be surprised if I don't go ALL IN !

50% just a hair away





_____ Hal



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 654
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, September 02, 2011 - 10:28 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Friday, September 02, 2011 - 02:06 am:

perhaps they will save the barrage (blaze of glory) until Tuesday, to fly ahead




Almost looks like we put in a wave 3, and we're carving out a wave 4 of 5.




_____ Hal



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5069
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, September 26, 2011 - 12:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG and USD

Previously the stock GOLD was used as hedge in a falling equities market because the POG often went up whenever share markets tanked. As Randall mentioned in his weekly reports several weeks ago, this inverse relationship could not be depended on to continue when things really started to unravel.

The reason for the recent fall in the POG along with a fall in equities was the flight to the USD. Can you imagine........... the economy with some of the worst fundamentals on planet earth has a currency that investors currently consider to be a safe haven.


What we can see from the chart below of the USD is the rally that developed recently and the Fibonacci ratio levels that have acted both as support and resistance during this up-trending leg. Not shown on the chart is the fact that the price action tested the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the original really leg from $72.69 to $76.36.

It remains to be seen if we have seen a temporary top or if it will go up a bit further to test the 76.4% Fibonacci level before a retrace takes place.





In the meantime we can see from the 4 year chart of the POG that we are currently going through a significant retracement after going exponential in latter days. Note the importance of the 150 day SMA during the last two and a half years. It has proven to be a solid support.





The shorter term 9 month chart shows the abc corrective pattern that has developed in recent times. We can see that the last leg tested the 61.8% Fib level. Whether that completes the pattern or we move down to the 76.4% Fibonacci level (which also coincides with the 150 day SMA) before a bounce takes place. If so, we can expect bounce near the $1580 level.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 671
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2011 - 01:10 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

The monthly chart below shows the SPY plotted against the $US.

It came to my attention that during the 2008 crash (blue circles), that the $US broke above the middle bollinger band and had a short lived rally. Then in March 09, when the markets started their rally, the dollar corrected.

Currently, the $US is breaking the mid band, threatening to cross on the ADX.

hmmmm, a relief rally in the spy may be short lived.





_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5070
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2011 - 09:15 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

It's too early to tell at this stage. My cycles work certainly suggests that we are due to have a rally in this time frame but whether there is a little bit more downside first is not clear.

So far the SPX has rebound to 1164.2 where 1167.3 is the 50% Fibonacci retrace level. If it is going to be short lived then it shouldn't go above the 74.6% retrace level at 1195.3. The next big test would be at the 50 day EMA located at 1206.5. A breach of that EMA would be very bullish.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5071
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2011 - 03:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Key Levels for XJO

The standard Fibonacci retrace levels for the March 2009 rally have provided very strong levels of both support and resistance for subsequent price action in the XJO. I would suggest that this may continue to be the case.

Look for a test of the 4073 in the first instance.




The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 672
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 28, 2011 - 05:17 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AAPL pie spy.

Two charts, as we could guess, and acceleration in SPX if AAPL fades.

The second chart showing AAPL with fib fan lines.

It'll be an owwweeee for AAPL holders when it happens, the middle bb is down
about 33%. In 08, the first leg down only took a month.






_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5072
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 28, 2011 - 11:27 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



First SPX Target Level Hit

Further to my post 5070 in which I made the following comment:

"So far the SPX has rebound to 1164.2 where 1167.3 is the 50% Fibonacci retrace level. If it is going to be short lived then it shouldn't go above the 74.6% retrace level at 1195.3. The next big test would be at the 50 day EMA located at 1206.5. A breach of that EMA would be very bullish."


Last night the SPX peaked at 1195.86 before it started a downward move. It now remains to be seen whether the 50 day EMA becomes its next target or the market continues to move down.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 179
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 28, 2011 - 11:37 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,
Unfortunately I can't post any charts (at work at present ), but
my Dynamic 8Hr Cycles suggest this rally
was further to run upward after a brief pullback
in the next few days. 8 hr cycles are bottomed
and pointed hard up. So I suggest that this is
only wave A of an upward ABC.
This is also concurred by my Delta MTD analysis which suggest
the rally continuing well into Oct.

So I will be long on the pullback for some brief
rally trading :-)

Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5073
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 28, 2011 - 11:40 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Thanks for the heads up. That agrees with my MTD as well.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5074
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, October 11, 2011 - 07:05 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Time and Price Targets

For what they're worth, following are my time and price targets for the XJO.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 685
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 19, 2011 - 12:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all:

Kooky here !

Two charts for your a moose ment, don't know how it will view with my inferior production techniques, but giving it my best shot with the time allotted.

The top chart is a daily time frame, where the red broken line falls around the end of July. The lower chart is the 30 minute time frame where the broken line falls on tomorrow, yet to be determined.



I noticed some similarities between the attached charts:

similar wave lengths

similar structure

similar oscillator responses

check out the price of a retracement to the wave2 low on both charts, hmmmm, rest of the week could be interesting

Conjurs up certain images of the future, huh ?

I may just purchase a little TZA with a tight stop in the am, on the chance that helicopter ben doesn't take the markets to the moon in his hypersonic "cobra".








_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 688
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 20, 2011 - 01:02 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Russell didn't take the excursion to hell that I was expecting, but it did go in the right direction for my bid on TZA.

I managed to take $2 out of her (36.60 - 38.60), then bought back in at 38.18 in the last hour.

I'm still thinking down for the Russell( 669 next), and my target for TZA is 41.75. I take it a day at a time though, so it is unusual that I would take a position near the close.

The pattern however was a promising ascending triangle that was ripe for a gap up tomorrow, since it was near the end of its consolidation period just below the 50% retracement.

bon appetite

a demain




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 690
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, October 25, 2011 - 03:29 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The confluence of opinion is that there will be a serious shift around the 26th of October (27th Aus time).

This timing will coincide with the fib level 1267.88, and the upper boundary of the RAFF regression channel.

No one is betting against the world consortium of federal governments pulling the wabbit out of the hat, so are remaining silent about whether there will be a pullback at this level, or if it will just blast on through.

I agree with cautiously expressing my opinion, but we don't have long to wait and see. My personal bias is that there will be a pullback from the 1267 level; past that I'm open to being wrong.

I'm attaching a daily chart that shows the regression channel, the new moon date of Oct26, and the horizontal level of 1267.88.

I am also attaching a copy of my fib spread sheet where I have high lited in yellow the 1267.88 level on the image.

Note the price as I write this note is 1252.05, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see price hit the fib target some time tomorrow, although wednesday is the day that the European Union plan to have something to announce.

I wonder if buy the rumor, sell the news applies here ?






_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 707
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, November 18, 2011 - 11:46 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sign on the dotted line.

I refer to the dotted line on the two attached charts labelled 23.6%.

I ask myself how it happens that they (the markets that is) can know where I plotted these imaginary fibonacci lines.

I personally am noting two things on the status of the price close tonight:

one is that the two very significant indexes stopped or bounced at exactly the 23.6% retracement level.

two, that this is the top of Randall's sacred consolidation zone before the precipitous slide in to oblivion.






If you want to have a better view of this recurrence event unfolding, please check out the attached link to the article.

http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/eyeofra.html


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 729
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, January 26, 2012 - 11:23 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Surge

No, I'm not calling out for my French buddy.

The price surge in the US markets gave me a real lift this week.

Normally I am reluctant to stand on anything that defies gravity, so I built a very simple scan to look at any US equity that was crossing the 200ema this week (this is normally a bullish marker that professional traders use as a signal). I filtered out anything that didn't have much liquidity (trading less than $2M/d).

The scan returned 244 symbols (which is bunch).

What I saw was that most of the charts were breaking out, or bouncing off of the 200ma.

I also noticed that many were moving up through tight bollinger bands. Many technicians believe that the first move is the wrong move.

The dilemma then is which way will prices go in the end, and is the current mind numbing rise worth jumping on ?

I named the scan "x above 200" if you want to give it a quick look yourself.


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5079
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, February 07, 2012 - 01:16 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Testing Overhead Resistance

As can be seen by the attached price control chart (1 year daily) of the XJO, the index has had problems closing above the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the main range defined by the blue stars. At the time of writing this post, the high for the day so far was 4312.0.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5080
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, February 07, 2012 - 02:53 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Why is the XJO so weak compared to the US market?

My view is that the US market looks far more bullish than it deserves to a large degree because it is priced in USDs.

I also suggest that the other reason for our apparent weakness is our dependence on China through our commodities. It is worth while looking at what the Chinese market is really doing in the context of where it is relative to pre GFC times.

The following 5 year chart shows us that the SSEC has only recovered a very small proportion of its pre GFC highs. The XJO is shown on the same chart for comparison purposes.

Note also that the SSEC is currently near the top of its descending channel. Don't be surprised to see a change in sentiment in the very near future.







The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 742
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, February 10, 2012 - 10:10 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Fear Index "juiced"

TVIX is hinting that an interim top may be in on the markets.

The daily "idiot" is crossing, and the canaries (cci) are aligned for a bounce of the VIX.

This alert may seem a little on the early side for some of you, but notice on the bottom
of the chart that the MACD has been showing positive divergence since the beginning of the year.

btw, TVIX is a tradeable symbol.




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 748
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, February 16, 2012 - 07:32 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



$TICK---old hat for some, new for me.

Out of necessity (intraday volatility), I have become more of a day trader.

To that end I have been looking for tools to help me. Btw, I don't have a really sophisticated trading program, so I'm using manual and visual tool.

So here is one that I read about, and it is quite helpful for intraday trading, showing a more clear price direction based on 1minute ticks.

The setup is this--you choose the ma's that you would like to work with, set the chart time to 1minute, turn off the price (reduce the visibility by dimming), and watch.

On the attached charts, the best ma for today (based on my temperament) is the 89ema. You may choose something shorter, if you're one of those razor sharp aggressive traders.


When the 89ema goes below zero, the favored trade is short. (you can see from the charts that this would have helped keep me in my short trade in spite of the volatility.)

When the 89ema goes above zero, the favored trade is long.



ttttttttttttthhhhhhhhhhhhaaaat'z all folks.








_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 757
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, February 29, 2012 - 12:52 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



McClellan summation indices.

They don't signal directional changes very frequently, but I have marked several trend changes that were tradeable.

I didn't mark the swings that would have provided marginal trades, but you can identify the swings that had very short time spans that aren't marked on the charts.









_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5081
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, March 02, 2012 - 10:05 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX hits strong Fibonacci level

The SPX is currently at a level where there is a strong confluence between two different Fibonacci extension levels.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 763
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, March 05, 2012 - 04:17 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
p3t3
Member
Username: p3t3

Post Number: 1087
Registered: 04-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, March 05, 2012 - 10:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

Ehmu said : ...consecutive days without a 3% pullback...


Thanks Hal

Definitely worthy of contemplation.


best
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 767
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2012 - 04:19 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Copper precursor for rollover of markets.

The attached chart for SCCO_us demonstrates the classic confirmations of a trend change.

Daily idiot has gone negative (and weekly just going negative)

Uptrend broken
Uptrend retested
rsi 50% broken
rsi 50% retested
233ema broken
233ema retested
cci -100 broken
cci -100 retested
cci now below -100
144ema broken, now becoming resistance to price rise






http://slopeofhope.com/2012/03/on-the-eve-of-revolution.html#more?tw_p=twt


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 768
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, March 07, 2012 - 02:41 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Wednesday, February 29, 2012 - 01:52 pm:

trend changes that were tradeable




McClellan Pre-warned SPY breakdown




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 769
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, March 08, 2012 - 01:35 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Wednesday, February 29, 2012 - 01:52 pm:

McClellan summation indices.




The McClellan summation index for the Toronto stock exchange has now broken down.

Also attached chart for TSX60 index shows breakdown started monday. I bought a little sampler of HXD.to yesterday afternoon and will scale in if this down draft picks up momentum.






_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 771
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 10:45 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AUD_USD

If you like analogs, check this one out.

It has a few holes in it, but thought provoking for sure.

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/audusbreaksup portjoefridaymar9.gif


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5082
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 03:12 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

I suspect it is due to the inverse relationship that both the SPX and AUD have with the USD.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 180
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 04:46 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys.

These are the monthly dynamic cycles analysis for both the spx and AUDUSD. Hal I think the link to that comparison has a lot of merit:-)

application/vnd.ms-excel
monthly cycles_100312.xls (414.2 k)



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5083
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 05:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for those charts Andrew and Hal.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 773
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 05:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




skyhawk wrote on Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 05:46 pm:

the monthly dynamic cycles




thanks andrew

looks kind of flattening, but does it have upside left do you think ?


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 774
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 05:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Sunday, March 11, 2012 - 04:12 pm:

inverse relationship




Hey Rudy:

Yes, you're right, but I'll just bet that mr. bernanke would like to shake that up as well.




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 776
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 18, 2012 - 12:23 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Sky's About to Fall!


We see that the CBOE's VIX reading is now sub-16 for several trading sessions, indicating that traders see little market volatility on the horizon. For many, that's a sign of complacency and a sure bet that we're due for a near term wallop.


But that hasn't been the case historically. A steadily falling VIX is less an indication of a market top than what we've referred to in the past as 'volatility compression' – a subject we'll broach again in coming letters, but not here.


Take a quick look at the VIX chart:







A sustained sub-15 VIX reading has been associated with stock gains of 50% (1992-1996) and 30% (2005-2007), and tend to surprise even the saltiest market watchers when they start trending even lower. For those with a weak memory, the median VIX reading for those two periods was an unbelievable 13.


VIX is yelling Bull.


Strategy? Sell the Strategists


Call us daydreamers, call us fanciful, but don't say we're not digging.


We tend to look on the edges for an understanding of which direction markets are headed, and we enjoy seeing all sorts of arcane data sets and technicals that, as a group, fill out the investment picture and give us an understanding of the market's intermediate trend.

Here's one that came our way this week that we felt was illustrative in an exquisitely contrarian way.










The chart shows Wall Street strategists' consensus equity allocation over the last fifteen years.


What a disaster.


These folks have been wrong at all the major turns, recommending 70+% equities when the market topped in 2000/2001 and just over 50% when it bottomed in 2009. Of late, their equity weightings fell off a cliff.


And we like that.


Put it this way – given an improving job market and rising retail sales, sell side analysts upping EPS numbers and the VIX falling, Wall Street stooges strategists lowering their stock weightings and a world awash with liquidity, it will take one hell of a California earthquake to unseat the bulls from the driver's seat.


Go long.


Seismologically.


Many happy returns,



Courtesy Matt McAbby, Senior Analyst, Oakshire Financial


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 181
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 18, 2012 - 02:40 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Hal very interesting.

There consensus is certainly quite bullish out there at present. Certainly what is seen at tops.

I bring to your attention a number of points charts in the word document below:-

• Firstly the SP500 is edging on trend line resistance as well as massive resistance of 1440 set back in the high of 19th May 2008!! This might be a tough nut to crack for the bulls and I doubt it will happen on this leg up.

• Secondly, most charts of the US indices are quite corrective looking and skewed at present. The Nasdaq 100 chart is crystal clear and shows is that wave 5 of is completing of a larger correction ABC OR wave 1 of 1 from the 2002 low has just complete. It does not matter which count, they both imply a correction to come in the months ahead!! Great when 2 wave counts suggest the same outcome to happen 

• Thirdly, this entire bear secular market ( or I should say sideways movement for the non EW guys) that started in the year 2000, is very similar in terms of the pattern of trend to that of 1968 till 1976 or 40 odd years ago. Forget about the time and price components of the two periods, I am only focusing on the pattern. Not exactly the same but you get my drift  The future is just a repetition of the past!!

• Fourthly. The Long term Delta Chart shows that price is at grey 3 which historically occurs 2 -4 bars to the right of the vertical blue line. We are now at 3 bars. More importantly, the Super Long Term Delta shows us that the next low will not be until 2013!!


Now I don’t know whether that low will happen in 2013. I don’t even know if we are headed for a long term bear market or bull. I just take it one cycle point at a time and my current Long Medium Term Delta studies (This cycle I discovered myself) suggest we will not see a low until August of this year. The subsequent rally might only be a B wave with more to follow down. Not really important at this stage. But based on the 1070’s analog, we should get a correction of 38.2-50% of the entire rally that started from March 2009.

But if I was a betting man I would say that the chart might end up looking like the one on the last page.


Cheers


application/msword
market thoughts_1.doc (449.0 k)
application/msword
market thoughts_2.doc (451.1 k)



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 777
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 18, 2012 - 11:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew:

Thanks for presenting your view on market direction and timing.

I appreciate it.


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5088
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, March 30, 2012 - 01:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO 15 minute chart

It's nice to finally be able to feature an intraday chart using Colin's new intraday capabilities.

Here's one of the XJO that shows how we tested (so far today) the 150% Fibonacci extension of the initial rally leg of the day.




(Message edited by rdumas on March 30, 2012)


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 783
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, April 02, 2012 - 09:57 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Australia;

Too early to speculate ??

Maybe a bit early, but you can imagine that....well maybe not.





_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 785
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, April 03, 2012 - 10:18 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Insiders selling trends




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5093
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, April 05, 2012 - 03:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BHP

The 50 and 150 day SMAs are trending down but BHP does currently appear to be in a basing pattern.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
p3t3
Member
Username: p3t3

Post Number: 1143
Registered: 04-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, April 05, 2012 - 07:14 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





Hello Rudy, nice to hear from you.

I'm seeing descending triangles in two different time-frames, though the other indicators are a bit
mixed. Green candle buyer action above $34 support looks bullish, as does the divergence on the
stochastic. However a break below $34 - with follow-through to ensure it wasn't a false break -
would suggest a likely test down as far as $28, though that would then look like a particularly good
entry level, to me.


just my view
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 787
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, April 06, 2012 - 12:26 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Risk adjusted US dollar.

I maintain that the inferred output measurement of the market pump (US FED driven market pump)is the risk adjusted dollar.

My representation of this in the form of a chart is the ratio of the US dollar etf UUP with respect to the $VIX (which is the CBOE market volatility index (fear index)).

As you can see by the attached chart, the ratio is being supported at the moment (10amet April 5) by the 34ema. This is a significant level in my opinion because of the rescues that have been executed just below this level many times in recent past.

It looks like they are going for a soft landing on the 34ema. It remains to be seen how much liquidity they have in reserve to react to an event that might pull the ratio below the 34ema.

Who knows, maybe they have enough ammo left to carry them 'til June.

For my next post on this subject, I'll start plotting an $Xii overlay, so we can see how the Institutional Investors are responding to the liquidity.




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5094
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, April 06, 2012 - 09:05 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete,

Thanks for sharing your view........much appreciated.

The support for BHP will probably be tested in the coming weeks as the SPX is showing signs of having finally succumbing to its overstretched condition. I suspect that the SPX will finally have its long overdue 'next level up' correction.

If you look at the European markets you will see that they are showing early signs of a possible collapse and the Shanghai Composite is continuing to roll over.

All of these signs are going to put a lot of a downward pressure on our market and with BHP being so close to its medium term support I doubt that this support will hold.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 792
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, April 13, 2012 - 05:39 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Institutional Investors Index XII

Gap resistance starts at $631.37.




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5096
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 08, 2012 - 11:56 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ETF GOLD breakout looming

Apologies for how busy the chart looks but from the 6 year daily chart of ETF GOLD below I get the impression that the price action is just about ready to breakout to the upside.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5100
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 25, 2012 - 12:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Telstra Not Looking Too Bad

So far TLS is holding the 38.2% Fib level. It is possible however that it has not finished dropping just yet. If it did drop down to the 100% Fibonacci extension of the first drop then it would hit the lower boundary of the ascending blue channel.

Between the current level and the lower boundary however there are a lot of support levels. The most obvious one of these levels is shown with the orange horizontal line just below the 50% Fib retracement level that marks the previous market top.

Regardless of where it drops to however it does appear that at this stage TLS is in a strong upward trend.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 182
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 25, 2012 - 01:13 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

Yes been keeping an eye on it too!!
But at present from an EW perspective it appears to have already completed an impulse up from the lows of last year.

I think a logical retracement would be 38.2 to 50% or the span of the previous wave 4 of one less degree which is approximately $3.20.
Perhaps by mid August it might reach such levels, especially given the current broader market sentiment???

Cheers







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 5101
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 25, 2012 - 02:16 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Skyhawk,

That makes a lot of sense. The 100% Fibonacci extension of the first drop takes the price action down to the $3.28 level which is pretty close to your target of $3.20.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

Add Your Message Here
Post:
Bold text Italics Underline Create a hyperlink Insert a clipart image

Username: Posting Information:
This is a private posting area. Only registered users and moderators may post messages here.
Password:
Options: Enable HTML code in message
Automatically activate URLs in message
Action:

 
Other Threads  
Last PosterPostsPagesLast Post
Delta, Fibs and other Weird TArdumas44 31-Dec-16  12:31 pm
Where is the BAD index heading?mads21-Oct-13  03:06 pm
Networking and computer malfunctionscolin_twiggs20-Jan-12  11:09 am
Elliott Wave Watchingboomer2484 48 10-Oct-11  09:36 pm
Federal Reserve Bank Influenceehmu27-Aug-11  03:55 am
US Debt...elisabeth21-Aug-11  05:53 pm
The hidden enemyjimdene5418-Aug-11  12:07 am
FIXED AND DYNAMIC TIME CYCLE ANALYSISbillt48 17-Aug-11  05:34 pm
Daytraderqed24 08-May-11  11:46 am
Fibonacci - Fact or Fictionrdumas37 22-Apr-11  03:58 pm
The Elisabeth Tutorialelisabeth28 14-Apr-11  05:05 am
MIRRORING TARGETSgdd322 13-Apr-11  11:24 pm
Computershare at 6.58 Friday 3rd of Februarybonkers16 29-Dec-10  12:08 pm
Put your "mouth" where your "money" isbreaker_147 29-Dec-10  07:37 am

Threads by Last Post Time:

First Previous 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 Next Last

Administration Administration   Log Out Log Out    

««  Previous  Next  »»