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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through December 17, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 17, 2010

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rdumas
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Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - 07:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Santa,

In the coming week would you please arrange for the S&P500 to go down to 1200 so that I can get set for the ride of my life in the third wave of this fifth wave. You will find the bottle of Scotch and biscuits in the usual place.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - 04:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

It's been a day of not watching the market today. For those who are still managing to check on PUG's website and getting confused with the naming of the wave levels, the following chart may be of some help. Intermediate wave (B) terminated on the 1st July 2010 for the S&P500.


Cheers










I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - 05:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy,

Interesting on Pug's site overnight he is becoming more convinced that last night's SPX high at 1235.05 might possibly be the completion of his (5) of 5-[1]-P3, and the completion of major wave [1]-P3.

However, his primary count believes we have completed the end of minute degree wave (3) of minor 5-[1]-P3, with a target for minute degree wave (5) of c.1250 pre Xmas. The Russell-2000 and Nasdaq both look like they are in wave (3), which gives perhaps a better feel for Polly.

I mentioned this alternative count a few days back because of the Russell, and Pug seems now to have switched to this count...(I'm sure he is stalking us...)

"Food for thought, if you are planning to hold significant long positions into the beginning of the new year…" he states?! Pug is looking for a major degree wave [2]-P3 pullback to the 1130 level, before the next longer term rally.

In terms of Cycle Analysis Rudy, I guess this current high responds reasonably well with your Conti if we complete shortly.

Rudy, Pug's major degree wave [2]-P3 c.1130 pullback doesn't sit well with the February Delta dates I would imagine, unless Polly gets a move on?

Thanks for your commentary on the EW thoughts on the XJO - my thoughts the same. Putting Aunty in a Zigzag + Triple 3 + goodness knows what was proving too much for my Primary School EW brain to handle....once I get to the WXYXX&Z stage on XJO I begin to go back to the rather more simple SPX count...

For those who perhaps need a road map for the bullish Pug Count here is a stripped down version:





Rudy, perhaps the Delta dates of February to June are intermediate highs (i & iii) within wave 3?


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ehmu
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 01:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gentlemen:

Regarding your bullish PUG charts.

Looks suspiciously like the pugster has been conducting surreptitious conversations with Mr. Bernasty.




"I have complete control over the inflation/deflation situation, and unemployment is progressing slowly."




_____ n a m a s t e

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billt
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 10:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes Hal,

Pug has full belief in Uncle Ben to deliver 'Disney' a soft landing. GDP might be below trend, but the US stock market to be fueled by Emerging Market growth of +8%....lots of Coke to be drunk, Caterpillar diggers to be consumed, and iPads to be bought in China & India. All set against a $USD which is depreciated through the Fed presses, which makes the value of US stocks even higher.....it's completely wacky, but that's the logic! The market goes higher, the US consumer sees their investments soar and start spending again big time...


The alternative is 4G's February 2011 high then a trip to lower the expectations. Debt & Deficits out of control, Sovereign defaults (Portugal, Spain, Italy, etc..), Hyper Inflation, ....recession....etc etc....

An Ending Diagonal to a wave v might be the conclusion to extend the time frame, unless we have a slower trip to reach just short of 1300 in a more conventional impulse, with wave i = wave v.





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rdumas
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 10:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well done Bill.

Whilst I like PUG's lower level counts I believe that his bullish count will turn out to be invalidated in 2011 when the 4 year cycle starts to head south.

Today's price action in the XJO is delightful because my smaller 25 day Conti cycle may well come in either 1 day or smack on the mark (Friday) if we get a new top.

From a Delta perspective it means that my Delta ITD point (10) will top out at the new high. Even if we did get the top on the 7th December though it is still within the +/-3 day tolerance for Conti cycles and the wider tolerance for the Delta cycles.

The following chart gives the translation between the PUG's and Prechter labelling conventions. The Prechter labelling is the one shown on the diagram whereas the PUGs labelling is shown in the legend.




(Message edited by rdumas on December 09, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 11:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



....and the next low date fits in with the wave 2 of 5 idea by Xmas in my post above?

Pug is getting excited about a SPX 10% correction on similar TA analysis to the May correction. This could complete in a similar timescale if things get heated....keeping the Conti alive!





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ehmu
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 11:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys:

Great comments about pug. I take it this is a guy, I had a girl friend that had a pug.

Bill I think it was you that mentioned that one option might be a truncated v as a possibility. How would this look, I take it there would be no ending diagonal. Thanks for the sketches btw.

best
Hal

(Message edited by ehmu on December 09, 2010)




_____ n a m a s t e

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skyhawk
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 11:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

If you remember about 2 weeks ago I listed 10th December as a key fibonacci time cluster. Adding to this my Conti Cycles also show the 10th Dec as a possibility.

Conti cycles is the name I gave to this type of cycles analysis after working with this AND other forms of cycle analysis for much of the last 6 years and noticing through trial and error..

Further to this, I have just conducted another time study (which I have been developing for some time now) for this juncture using a combination of Gann and Fibonacci time techniques which give me chills as to their accuracy!!

This approach basically gives you 2 time possibilities per Delta MTD.. 90% of time it is one of these, that hits the MTD mark. For this month the 2 highest scores (of hits in a cluster) are 2nd Dec which was the low a week and a bit back and the 9-10th Dec. However the 9-10th is not an MTD date

A separate study ALSO using Gann/Fib analysis also gave 6th Dec. All this numbers:

2nd Dec
6th Dec
9-10th Dec
Gave valid time points……


Cheers



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ehmu
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 01:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Cancel that last query.

Truncation

A truncated fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. It can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in Figures 6 and 7.

Truncation gives warning of underlying weakness or strength in the market. In application, a truncated fifth wave will often cut short an expected target. This annoyance is counterbalanced by its clear implications for persistence in the new direction of trend.



Figure 6 Truncated 5th



Figure 7 Ending diagonal




_____ n a m a s t e

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billt
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 05:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Interesting work on your Gann/Fib (GF) technique Andrew....it would be useful to get Polly's forward dates to try to plot out where we are heading to over the next month.

Rudy's Conti work has a possible 'Top' on 29 Dec and his next Delta (1) is due sometime near this date too.

Assuming we are in a 5 wave pattern to complete the cycle to your Feb high, and that we have, or in the process of, completing wave i of that pattern. It would appear that wave 3 of v could be at or around Rudy's 29 Dec. Wave v top being your Feb date.

If the Ending Diagonal was to be in play perhaps we have a further impulsive c wave of a zigzag still left to go, before we complete wave i? Perhaps a 1250 target, putting a more vertical inclination on the Diagonal to reach a 1300 target?

On a straight 5 wave Impulse Wave option, if wave i = wave v in time & price, wave v would complete on exactly 29 Dec (so that should not be dismissed)....In this scenario, we may then enter a topping pattern to give us another high in Feb?

Interesting to see how your GF looks around these dates?





Hal, the Ending Diagonal buys time to get to Andrew's Feb high...that was my thought.

My only concern to a 10 week extension to a high in this pattern is that my canary Russell 2000 US Small Caps $IUX may have completed its journey north, it leads the markets up and leads them down.....we'll see.


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skyhawk
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 05:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill....

You are making the assumption that the conti cycle of 25/26bars
holds the rhythm that it has just done for the regular and inverted
cycles.... This may or may not be the case, however once both
a regular and inverted cycle set completes, the rhythm can change...

Re Delta. My MTD cycle is also due end of this month.
As far as I know Rudy has adopted my MTD Delta solution for
both the SPX and XAO....
I solved the cycle solutions in 2006 for both these indexes
and have been using them ever since.

You mentioned my previous forecast for Feb. As mentioned in
earlier posts, I have 2 probable targets at present. Feb and June
I am holding Feb as the primary count for now pending a
monthly cycles analysis early next year when I think it will become
apparent if the market trend will persist or not depending on the
profile of the 4 yr cycle. If that cycle remains up, then I will
switch to the alternate time target....

Cheers


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billt
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 09:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Thanks Andrew for your input. If your analysis suggests further mid year highs the EW count will need to be revisited, for now I'm considering the Feb target for a Wave 5 Ending Diagonal completion @ 1300 as the most likely outcome, with a wave iii of 5 by the end of the month.

One wave at a time for now...

V shaped/Double Top pattern looks similar to the top of Wave 3.

Unless Polly runs a little further to the 1250 level, wave i looks complete to me.

Correction to come in the next week to retest the 1200 levels before the final Santa rally to 29 Dec Delta & Conti dates. I am thinking that the 29 Dec wave iii level will be close to the 1300 level (100% extension of wave i @ 60.91 = 1295.96) , so it might be our last piece of fun for a while...





The completion of Wave 5 at this point looks a low probability as the end Dec highs would be improbable....


Any other thoughts Rudy?


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skyhawk
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 09:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

All we can do is take it one step at a time,
and make observation/analysis with the
information we have at hand...

That is why I am cautious about my Feb
forecast and unwilling to fully commit to
it at this early stage and why I have the alternate.

Rather than CERTAINTY, I prefer to refer
to this as a DECISION POINT as more
information comes to hand, because we are
after all dealing with probabilities.
No one can predict the future.... :-)

Now I can confidently can say one thing here
IF the market trend does persist past Feb,
we WILL get a good size correction that 
will confuse the he'll out of everyone
before that last high is put in at a later stage!!!


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billt
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 10:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Andrew

Considering the EW action, it would look more probable that a wave v completion by the end of Dec would be the end of it....wave 1 = wave 5 in time and price, and Santa has arrived back in Lapland. We may then get a January correction, before another impulse wave higher to pick up your 2011 highs if the 'Cycle' gods move that way....Wave i @ Feb, wave iii @ June, that sort of pattern.

But for now Andrew, what happens over the next few weeks is all that matters...Delta & Conti appear to be suggesting an end of month high, and so does the EW...so I'll run with that!

cheers mate

Bill


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skyhawk
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 11:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

Continuing on where Rudy last left off with some of the cycles on his chart, I have identified another NEW possible 37 day Regular cycle (Red font) however this time in the XAO. If this rhythm holds, then next 37 Day Inverted Cycle (projected in red font) should complete approximately 29th to 30th December ± a few days. (I included the fact that xmas and boxing day holidays)

This lines up closely with the next expected MTD high date for the end of this month.
However this Conti Cycle needs to be quantified so I need to do some more TIME analysis work on the weekend using other approaches to see if these concur with this or not. The hits we have in this time zone the higher the probability

Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
xao conti cycles_ 37 day cycle.xls (125.4 k)



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rdumas
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 12:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

That lines up with the chart that I sent Bill and Hal privately yesterday.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 12:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There is also a smaller 12-13 day inverted
cycle within the larger 37 day inverted day
cycle that is currently forming. If the 12-13
day regular cycle holds, then we might get
a correction of this current leg up finishing
Tuesday to Wednesday...

Cheers


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rdumas
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 01:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes I noticed several possible shorter term Conti cycles which could pick the bottom ranging anywhere between 14 and 23 days. Here's one for an 18 day cycle which out give us a low on the 20th December however the shorter one your speak of is certainly a possibility. I must admit that I didn't see the 12 day cycle.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 01:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Further investigation will yield
even more cycles. Unfortunately I don't
have time to look.
These cycles we have found are NOT
enough evidence to suggest things will
turn out as we expect....
More analysis needs to be done to determine
if these are high probability or not

Cheers


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rdumas
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 01:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No arguments from me on that score Andrew.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Friday, December 10, 2010 - 04:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have mentioned in earlier posts about the two MLTD Delta potential time targets. One in Feb and the other in June. (15th June to be exact)

I mentioned that as it stands at present the Feb MLTD point is favoured pending a review of the 4 year cycle profile next year. As can be seen in the attached file, the 4 year cycle is still below the centre line. From past experience it needs to be above the centre line for a significant long term top to be in place.

Given that the cycle charts are very sensitive and can change their profile on a dime is the reason I have been not willing to stick my neck out months ago with regard to a more accurate forecast.

Unless we have a major change in the profile of the 4 year cycle by February , the probability grows that this trend will persist well into next year.

Now this a long shot, but applying a conti cycle analysis on a weekly chart we have a 64 week inverted cycle finishing in June almost exactly at the PI cycle date of 15th June. Maybe just a coincidence it lines up with the MLTD Cycle point too? Time will tell..

For now will keep Feb time target as primary count, but that may change given the position of the 4 year cycle profile next year.

Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
xao_15th june pi cycle_conti cycle analysis.xls (305.7 k)



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ehmu
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Saturday, December 11, 2010 - 11:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings Gents:

I'm wondering if anyone has a data source (free hopefully) that offers quote data including weekends and holidays.

For cycle work it would be useful to have this format. An option for me is to use the spread sheet program to create the charts, and to clumsily insert the weekend and holiday dates with no quote data.

thanking you in advance

Hal




_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Sunday, December 12, 2010 - 10:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wikileaks

Nothing to do with Elliott Wave but it brought a smile to my dial. I haven't worked out yet what I think about Wikileaks but the following cartoon seemed to say something clever.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, December 12, 2010 - 07:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As you know, I have an interest in how reported US GDP figures have influenced/mirrored the SPX over the past period.

There is some concern that US GDP in Q4 will begin to reduce from the current 2.5%, to 2.2% in 2010 Q4, then a slide south to 1.6%, and then 1.4% in Q1 & Q2 in 2011.

The Financial Forecast Centre model the SPX and have shown that a high will top in February 2011, then begin a decline mirroring the GDP decline.

I have added the 2010 GDP announcements to the graph and it can be seen that the SPX certainly reacted to each announcement.

Q4 2010 figures out in the third week of January 2011.

A February 2011 top - where have I heard that from before?





US GDP figures announced 3 weeks after the end of each quarter:

2009 Q1 -4.9%
2009 Q2 -0.7%
2009 Q3 1.6%
2009 Q4 5.0%
2010 Q1 3.7%
2010 Q2 1.7%
2010 Q3 2.5%


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skyhawk
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Sunday, December 12, 2010 - 08:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

very interesting info trying to tie in FA with projected moves.

Will be interesting to see what happens next year

Cheers


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billt
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010 - 08:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX sold off sharply in the afternoon trade as did $USD. Trend lines broken.

The VIX filled the April gap, looks set for a reversal.

$NYSI – dropped fast for a month, followed by sideways movement. Major monthly negative divergence is in play.

Hindenburg Omen conditions setting up once again!


A correction back to 1219 if that was only i of 5 that has been completed, or a fuller pullback to 1173 & then onto 1131 level if wave 5 has completed?

Delta and Conti are possibly suggesting the former, ii of 5 to complete at c.1219 in say a week, then a big push north for iii of 5 by year end?


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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010 - 09:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I have mentioned in the past that I thought that the EW count that PUGs had for the short to medium term was excellent but like Anthony Caldaro's work that their long term counts would end up being proven incorrect. As you mentioned privately a day or so ago, PUGs has not come up with what he calls his NEUTRAL EW count for the SPX.

Basically it looks like the following diagram. Please note that the diagram is conceptual and not drawn to scale and is only meant to show what pattern is likely to occur in the coming years and where we are in the current cycle.






As you rightly pointed out it looks very much like the count that the original 4M's (and now the G4) have been talking about since 2009. There is only a marginal difference between the two counts. One by one the expert's are slowly coming to see the same count that we have been talking about for ages.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010 - 01:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Current XJO Short Term Price Action

With the high likelihood that last night the SPX may have completed Minute wave Circle i of Minor wave 5, the XJO is starting to show weakness as it comes towards the close of the day.

It is constantly breaking through support levels as the afternoon wears on as can be seen on the 2 minute chart below which shows a snapshot of the index at 14:36pm.

The index needs to stage a recover back above the MBB for it to have any chance of pulling out of this dive. If it bounces and then fails to convincingly break that level at 4766 then it is in a bit of strife.




(Message edited by rdumas on December 14, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010 - 02:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

The Contracting Triangle Supercycle Wave IV looks a more obvious outcome to me from an EW point of view and a FA stand point.

Considering SPX's potential imp-cor-imp move south then north since Wave 3 completed, I guess we cannot totally rule out that we are completing wave B of a CT?

It could provide an end of year wave D high for your Delta/Conti work, and deliver a 2011 high for Andrew too?

What percentage probability do you put on us still being in a Wave 4 CT? A correction back to the 1180 levels might give us a clue?







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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010 - 03:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

As you know with the Delta work when we get to this part of the cycle an inversion can often take place. Andrew has suggested that this may be a possibility and it could be that this would cause either a CT as you suggest or even a Flat pattern for Minor wave 4.

That would give us the following scenario. Much will depend on the depth of the move down when it finally starts.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010 - 03:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



By the way Bill. I'm not sure if you realised that the time frame that PUGs and I were talking about in our EW charts related to the entire GFC, not just this little bitty bit that we are currently going through. That is to say that the time frame of my earlier PUGs and G4 EW counts were from 2007 through to 2013 and beyond.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010 - 02:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Institutional core holdings

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm





ma s still bullish



_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010 - 06:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'll be out most of today so won't have time to post very much but here's a starter.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010 - 08:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The balloon was pricked (heh, heh), but I wouldn't call a cab quite yet.





_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010 - 08:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hehehehehehe.

Have to agree with you Hal. That 1240 level looks like a strong support at the moment.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010 - 09:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...but if you believe in Omens...the five requirements aligned last night greatly increasing the odds of a larger sell-off?


Hindenburg Omen:

1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day. (New 52 week lows reached a huge 119 issues, and the highs came in at 179 issues.)

2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than 75.

3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.

4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.

5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows.

The number of new 52 weeks lows has exploded upwards, despite the SPX moving sideways. Parts of this market are not happy and if they do not recover, SPX will be following soon. Having one sector soaring, and another setting new lows is not good in the balance of a healthy market.


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billt
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010 - 10:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With some Economic Indicators beginning to retrace overnight things may be turning in the US once more: eg. Retails Sales down 1.7% to 0.8%, and Business Inventories down 1.3% to 0.8%.


For the short term 1228 & 1219 look the targets, but Polly may want to give up a lot more:





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ehmu
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010 - 10:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Lookin' pretty boned up on the daily.




_____ n a m a s t e

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ken
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010 - 11:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Billt,

There is already a Hindenberg Omen thread on the forum. It would be good if you posted there as well.

Ken


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skyhawk
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010 - 09:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yesterday Rudy and I spent much of the day nutting out a possible wave count for the SPX. In the end the chart that Rudy posted showing us to possibly be in a wave 4 expanded flat or a running triangle was the highest probability conclusion. So the decline down to 1170 was subwave a and the leg we just had up was subwave b of wave 4.

About week and half ago I mentioned that the next Delta MTD high was due on the 29th December (XAO). Theoretically this should be the case, but unfortunately cycle point “inversions” ( or in between points) can occur at the end of the cycle point solution such that our expected MTD point becomes a low on the 29th December instead of a high. Inversions are a fact of Delta but in this instance necessary in order to reach our alternate June target. Inversions are hard to see coming, but in this instance the following two clues were apparent:-

-The last decline was only ¼ retracement of wave 3 and thus much shallower than the expected 3/8 decline. If that is all the decline the market could manage it means the up trend was strong and price action would immediately retest the highs which is what it did. Something else is happening here

- The 8Hr cycles for both the SPX and XAO show all the 3 cycles I look at TOPPING at the moment.

Upside probability in the short to medium term is low..

Today I spent scaling into ETF Gold whose cycles are the opposite, ie approaching a bottom.

Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx delta analysis_151210.xls (434.7 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
xao delta analysis_151210.xls (419.8 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx 8hr bars cycles analysis_151210.xls (341.5 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
xao_8hr bars cycles__151210.xls (347.6 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
etf gold 8hr bars cycles_151210.xls (301.1 k)



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ehmu
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Thursday, December 16, 2010 - 07:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The daily still looks ok.

The party may not be over but if you want to avoid the rush---which cab company can I call for you.

The 60min looks like tomorrow will be down as well. The price closed just below the 34ema.

And a nice clean cross of the W%R below ROC.




_____ n a m a s t e

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market_mad
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Thursday, December 16, 2010 - 11:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

Been away for a while but managed to keep up with the majority of posts here - great work by all!!

Looks to me like the Dow is close to completing its 5th Wave advance and is in line for a pullback. Interesting to note the that the Nasdaq led the world up in this advance and now looks as though it is leading us down.

What is also interesting is that the VIX is edging higher despite new highs in stock markets. Our market looks tired and that rings the warning bells for me!

Cheers
MM


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ehmu
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Thursday, December 16, 2010 - 02:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Guys:

Check out the results from my four bad hombres scan, in the shared scans.

Is there an abundance of pull back plays, or is it a tsunami building to the down side ?

Too many of the charts look like these two too (alliteration).

Just for the heck of it, I plotted the new " Rash rat's ass " moving average signal system with two 5d moving averages.

Looks like some serious sell signals, thanks to Randall.






_____ n a m a s t e

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billt
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Thursday, December 16, 2010 - 04:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

I guess we cannot rule out that wave 5 has completed either! Perhaps a correction then a further impulse north?

The Put/Call diagram below, puts us back into the same territory preceding the 20% April 2010 correction, flashing a sell signal on 15 December:






Also to support the idea is a double cluster of Hindenburgs.

Confirmed Hindenburg Omens are very rare. We have just had two in a row – a cluster!

On 12 August 2008 we had a cluster of two signals, which initiated a 92% sell-off on SPX.

If we define a crash as a 15% decline, of the previous 27 confirmed Hindenburg Omen signals over 25 years:

30% were followed by financial system threatening stock market crashes.

11% more were followed by stock market selling panics (10% to 14.9% declines).

15% resulted in sharp declines (8% to 9.9% drops).

22% were followed by meaningful declines (5% to 7.9%)

15% saw mild declines (2.0% to 4.9%), and

7% percent were failures, with subsequent declines of 2.0% or less.

Put another way, there is a 30% probability that a stock market crash -- the big one -- will occur after we get a confirmed (more than one in a cluster) Hindenburg Omen. There is a 41% probability that at least a panic sell-off will occur. There is a 56% probability that a sharp decline greater than 8 % will occur, and there is a 78% probability that a stock market decline of at least 5 percent will occur. Only one out of roughly 13 times will this signal fail.


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ehmu
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Friday, December 17, 2010 - 01:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for laying it out so logically Bill.

Now comes the hard decision, how to play it.

Hard, because if a person isn't already in when it comes, they are likely going to miss out on the best part of the ride.

With the power and speed on the institutional trading side, it will likely be quick. And there may be a wicked bounce chopping those late comers to the pity party in half.

ps forgot to ask about timing, I read somewhere some time ago that the crisis in prices could come as late as four months after the third omen. That would be a long time to wait if you were sitting in one of the juiced short etf's



(Message edited by ehmu on December 17, 2010)


_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Friday, December 17, 2010 - 07:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

As indicated in Andrew's latest comprehensive post and my earlier post, based on Andrew's cycle analysis and our individual Delta studies the highest probability scenario is that a Delta 'inversion' has taken place and what was going to be a high in late December/early January may now end up being a low instead.

Again as the 4 year cycle isn't due to top out until the first half of 2011, there is no way that there will be a catastrophic drop as suggested by the bearish EW counts. Coupling the results of these two methodologies, the highest probability scenarios that may play out will be the completion of a yet uncompleted Minor wave 4 in either a Flat pattern or a Triangle pattern as shown below.

Note that a Flat pattern is capable of going below the termination level of wave a but this level of drop is not necessary.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, December 17, 2010 - 08:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The SPX EW Count has the possibility that we are in a wave iii-a DOWN setup, with an initial target of 1220, before a test of the 1173 low by year end. This seems to correlate with the Wave 4 ‘CT or Flat’ idea mentioned earlier by Rudy/Andrew, and an option I posted a few days back. That option to me looks favorite.

The Hinde’ gives a 78% probability that a SPX decline of at least 5 percent will occur, which aligns with a target of the 1173 low by year end.

However, there is also a lower 41% probability on the Hinde’ that at a panic >10% sell-off will occur, which could possibly take out the 1129 wave 1 top, confirming that the previous 5 wave pattern had terminated.

The Put/Call diagram posted yesterday gives some added concern to a pull back of some strength.

Hal, I have shorted the market by TZA long, with a stop at the previous high. Irrespective of how deep the correction I’m set at the top of wave ii if we head south. Clustered Hinde’ signals normally activate fairly quickly but some take a few weeks – the 2008 signal was instant…

My stop protects me from an alternative SPX Count that puts us in a wave iii of 5 of 5 UP, targeting 1260.

...I couldn't help myself from shorting a Clustered Hinde'!!! What sort of Polar would I be!!


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rdumas
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Friday, December 17, 2010 - 10:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

At this stage the momentum is on the downside as previous support becomes overhead resistance.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Friday, December 17, 2010 - 10:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy:

Thanks for yur post regarding probabilities. I'm thinking tho that there is too much chop for the precision of the cycle analysis to be able to distinguish between the flat and the diagonal ?


billt wrote on Friday, December 17, 2010 - 09:10 am:

What sort of Polar would I be!!




Bill, You may be polar, but bearly !

Thanks for your comments regarding TZA. I'm guessing that $15.90ish would be the stop, your "last high " as a stop confused me a bit.

If we are in a wave five, it is looking too too short time wise, if for example it were to have a similar duration to wave 1, it could extend for another 15 days.

We are likely in an ending diagonal, is that right ?





Also I note: this 1242 level dates back to a bounce in July of 08, and the breakdown in sept08. This 1242 is also the 61.8 retracement level of zee great plunge. And........we are resting above it with this level as a support.

I'm a perma bull & I can't stand that the market keeps going up, what's up with that ??

Man this Bernanke guy really has me chasing my tail.

Duh oh yeh, I guess that's what bulls do ! (heh Hehhh)







_____ n a m a s t e

 
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