You need to register separately on the Chart Forum
- see Chart Forum Help
Edit Profile Profile Help Help
Forum Rules Forum Rules Advanced Help/Instructions Advanced Help
Search Last 1|3|7 Days Latest Posts Latest Posts
Search Search Forum Tree View Tree View
   
Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through January 03, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through January 03, 2011

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»


Author Message

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4427
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 17, 2010 - 10:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

You are absolutely right about the cycle analysis not being accurate enough to distinguish between the probability of a Flat or Triangle scenario. At this stage I weight both scenarios equally and any more bearish scenario with a far smaller probability.

A Flat pattern still makes a February still possible whereas it would probably require the Triangle to have a later peak.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4428
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 17, 2010 - 01:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

At this stage the BB's are being squeezed and the MBB is containing any upward movement. It will be interesting to see which way the breakout move will go.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4431
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, December 19, 2010 - 11:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Donchian Channels

On another thread IC poster Visions explained how to use the Donchian Channels to get the 12 month highs and lows for a stock.

I find it incredibly useful for determining whether a stock or index is going through a bullish or bearish phase. Rather than using the 252 day channels (1 trading year) if you use the 64 day channels (roughly 3 months averages) this indicator tells you whether the stock/index is in a bullish or bearish phase and lets you know when the switch over occurs between the two phases. Obviously the selection of the relevant period to use is very much a personal decision.

Below is a long term and a short term view of the channels in action on the XJO. I am using the area between the medium and upper boundary as the bullish phase and the area between the medium and lower boundary as the bearish phase.

Using that logic the current crossover level between bullish and bearish phases is 4683.1.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 597
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 20, 2010 - 11:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal

Although some EW counts have wave 5 topping out, Rudy’s two alternative counts look preferable considering the Cycle Analysis 2011 potential highs.

Whether we are about to see a DOWN wave (c) of 4 or a DOWN wave (ii) of 5, I am riding the down draft with TZA buying in towards the close on Friday.

If this is the start of a minor/short-term reversal, the SPX could target 1,212 or even the more important support level at 1,178 should a down swing suddenly develop. Price has been reversing off the 1,247 Gann Squares level the last week and has not yet broken through. Astro Boy’s 1170 +/- 10 looks a possible target zone…..

A 5% pullback in the SPX might deliver +20% in TZA, as the Russell has run very hard in the last rally…

A reversal on NYSE on Monday could well produce Hinde’ #3, which also puts us in confirmed Omen territory. To my mind, this may open up a 50:50 chance of a 10% wave (c) pullback to the 1130-1136 area. TZA should bolt +35% to +40% if we get that outcome...


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 226
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 20, 2010 - 02:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks bill. Yes, it seems we are all of the same sentiment regarding what is going to happen. It is just a matter of when. I like the way you give odds, it gives me confidence.

I'm taking the cash position at this point and will wait for the whites of their eyes. ---not because I'm brave, but because I'm a lousy shot.

you probably have heard the story about the old bull elk and the young bull elk on top of the hill looking down at the herd, making plans.

the young bull said " hey, I have a good idea, let's run down there right now and ********* one of those females"

the old bull said " snort, nah, let's walk down and ********** them all".




_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4433
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 20, 2010 - 03:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill/Hal,

I don't know if you guys realised that in Andrew's post on the 15th December he happened to mention that the cycles analysis indicated that ETF GOLD was coming to a bottom. I had been watching it keenly as I wanted to throw some mulah at it for a week or so as I noticed that it was progressing towards an MTD low.

Sorry about the resolution of the chart but you should be able to see that it was approaching ITD point 10 and MTD point 16. I would suggest that these points have now been established.




Note that on the daily chart that the stock has bounced off the bottom with a buy signal from the W%R14 indicator and also sitting in bullish territory as indicated by the Donchian Channels.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 101
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 20, 2010 - 08:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

I have attached the latest cycles.


Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
etf gold 8hr bars cycles analysis_201210.xls (303.1 k)



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 227
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 21, 2010 - 01:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy Andrew:

Thanks for the cycle posts on gold, old and new.

Have been watching closely since Andrew's recent post bottom.

I have been using the support of the rising wedge, and the resistance of the falling bull flag as my trigger. It is just teasing this morning, chart attached below.

This is where our years of experience with the finer sex should kick in, and give us the edge.




_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4434
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 21, 2010 - 09:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

The market loves to tease investors. It's part of its make up.


Hi Andrew,

Thanks for the update on the GOLD cycle analysis. It's always good to have that as a guide.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4435
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 21, 2010 - 09:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Beware Bears!

People may be aware of the previous overhead resistance zone between around 1245 and 1247 levels. Note that last night the SPX broke above that zone and is now using it as a temporary support. It is possible that it may use that platform to launch to higher prices. The bears really need to see that support fail in tonight's price action. Till now the retracements have been quite small indicating that the trend strength is still strong.

If it remains the case then we could very well see this rally continue on until the end of December /early January after all.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 512
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 21, 2010 - 11:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

I agree, the S&P200 looks like it completed a 4th Wave pullback yesterday also and looks set to have the 'Santa Rally' we have been waiting for. I expect our index to push up above 4800 in the coming sessions. If we go above 4804-4812 then we should see 4900 very quickly.

Alternatively, should our index push below 4720 then it could be set for a larger retracement - 200 to 300 points.

I am in the bullish camp at this stage and do expect us to push up. Hang Seng has been very weak of late and I expect them also to have a bit of gusto for the remainder of this week which should also buoy our market.

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4436
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 21, 2010 - 03:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day MM,

Good to see you posting again. I agree with you. First stop is 4815 then 4835. If it does go through the 4835 then the Saturn lines at just above 4900 looks like the target zone.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 229
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 22, 2010 - 04:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy:

Is this a contracting triangle on the $vix 15min ?

Does it have to do with whether a overlaps x ?

If not, then it would continue lower, no?




_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4437
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 22, 2010 - 06:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

There is always a danger in attempting to put an EW count on a chart when you can't see the bigger picture and you can't see the technicals in play.

If you look at the chart below you can see that BB's are starting to narrow which would indicate that a large move may be about to take place. To me the W%R, the slope of the MBB and the MACD possibly have a slight leaning towards the upside rather than the downside.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 230
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 22, 2010 - 07:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Ok, yes, I see the bias. Rising slope on Mbb, rising macd, and oversold w%. The price also looks to be drawn that way.

thnks
Hal


_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4438
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 22, 2010 - 07:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

The trick to getting the EW as accurate as possible it so make sure that it agrees with every other tool at your disposal.

The longer term weekly chart for the S&P500 has some very strong long term overhead resistance between 1257 and 1261. I suspect that these levels will be a stumbling block if only for the short term.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4439
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 22, 2010 - 07:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Another indication that we may be getting closer to a turn around is that the USD is approaching some pretty significant support levels. Should it bounce, the equities market would more than likely head down for the short term.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 1167
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 22, 2010 - 10:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

You may be right but I took the liberty to add two trendlines(to identify a 'foghorn/broadening wedge') that shows resistance just above and possible support below your 'dotted' support lines if indeed they are broken. Two things about this broadening 'pattern'; one is that it appears to have another leg down in it BUT more importantly I believe they are far more reliable as long-term patterns for direction indicators(ala our XJO from Oct.09 to April.10, remember!)more than say the timeframe we are looking at here. Having said that if we could overlay those patterns together we are at the 'eqivalent' to the April high on the XJO chart, right!



Cheers
Dolphin


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 598
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 22, 2010 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The larger view of the US VIX does support perhaps a larger correction. Last time the VIX went sub 16 we had the April 08 & April 10 corrections:





Lots of other indicators suggesting a top is near, including $BPSPX (SPX Bullish % Index) at 84.6 which is in overbought territory, at similar levels but on a negative divergence basis to the April 10 high.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4440
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 22, 2010 - 11:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I think that the market has taught all of us that anything is possible. I take it that you are suggesting that the Foghorn pattern in the USD is going to move down to the lower boundary of the pattern.

If you assumed that the lower boundary in the next 1~2 days was somewhere near the 80.4~80.5 level then that would represent a move of around 0.86% to 1.0%. Equating that to a similar move (but this time up) in the S&P500 then we could expect a move to somewhere around the 1266~1268 level.

To me they don't seem like unattainable levels so it would be definitely possible. The SPX needs to be able to get through the 1257~1261 levels first though and I think it will struggle to do that initially.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 1168
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 22, 2010 - 01:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Yes, we live in a "world of possibilities". Thanks for the SPX500 level equivalents.

Dolphin


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4442
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 23, 2010 - 07:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I was looking at the Delta MTD chart for ETF GOLD last night and was surprised to see that the next MTD high isn't until late January/early February. Note the location of future MTD point (16).


application/vnd.ms-excel
gold mtd chart v1.xls (81.4 k)



Now historically GOLD will often move in an inverse relationship with the XJO. That led me to have another look at the XJO MTD Delta chart with fresh eyes. The first thing that I noticed was that my original call of a top for the XJO late December/early January looks like it will possibly play out. That means that my comment about a possible low in that time period due to an inversion discussed in my last market wrap is now invalidated. So you can ignore my call of any retrace being of short duration. My Delta charts now suggests that we can expect a retrace lasting at least until the end of January/early February. I believe that this validates what you were saying in your last post about a deeper retrace being on the cards.

That brings into play Andrew's comment about a topping of the 4 year cycle later in the first half of 2011 rather than in February.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 102
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 23, 2010 - 09:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

If the market trend persists till after Feb then an inversion in the XAO has to happen. How big an inversion and when is another story….

I too was looking at late Dec for a short term peak from a month ago as our Delta solutions are the same, but because we have entered into an ITW (Inversion Time Window), the inversion is always a distinct possibility and could not be discounted

Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 103
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 23, 2010 - 05:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys.
Just a continuation of my last post.

If the XAO does not invert on this leg, the next MTD high is approximately 7-10th January.This is the most bullish scenario at present.
This is via my own IP variant of Delta analysis which uses a different Cycle (so far more accurate with better resolution for MTD points than Copan-Delta system) but still testing it before use and discussing in greater detail.
The 8Hr Bars Cycles suggest only that the trend will be at risk, sometimes they are bang on, other times in struggling trends the market persists. Either way we are approaching a short term peak in the new year.Given the holidays that could only be 7 traded days away max..

Have a great Xmas!!
application/vnd.ms-excel
delta_231210.xls (432.6 k)



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 600
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 24, 2010 - 09:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Guys

$CPCE (CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio) and the VIX still are presenting a possible top soon.

Perhaps we will drift a little higher over the next week, before the correction in January.

Out of action for a few weeks, sailing north for a few weeks.

Merry Xmas to all,

Bill


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4443
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 24, 2010 - 09:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I felt certain that you would be heading to Hobart in that yacht of yours.

Either way, keep safe and have a great Christmas and New Year.

The same goes for all the other readers and participants of this thread. Thanks for making the thread such a success during 2010 and lets hope that 2011 is a ripper of a year for all of us.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
starboard_tack
Member
Username: starboard_tack

Post Number: 399
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 24, 2010 - 09:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

Merry Christmas and a big thank you to all for the invaluable discussions throughout the year. I often miss out on good internet when I'm sailing up north, but this thread is one of the ones that I try to catch up on when I can. Well done all.


Bill,

While you sail up north please keep the cyclones at bay for us both! Enjoy Christmas and I hope the winds do the right thing at last.
We miraculously survived 134 knots of cyclone Ului unscathed this year. We don't need another scare like that!

Regards,
Starb'd


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 233
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 24, 2010 - 11:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Smart Money

Ho HO ho

Clipped from an e-letter

“Our Confidence indices are presented on a scale of 0% to 100%. When the Smart Money Confidence is at 100%, it means that those most correct on market direction are 100% confident of a rising market … and we want to be right alongside them. When it is at 0%, it means that these good market timers are 0% confident in a rally, and we want to be in cash or even short when confidence is very low.

“We can use the Dumb Money Confidence in a similar, but opposite, manner. For example, if the Dumb Money Confidence is at 100%, then that means that these bad market timers are supremely confident in a market rally. And history suggests that when these traders are confident, we should be very, very worried that the market is about to decline. When the Dumb Money Confidence is at 0%, then from a contrary perspective we should be concentrating on the long side, expecting these traders to be wrong again and the market to rally. "

“In contrast to the Smart Money, we want to do the opposite of what the Dumb Money is doing. These traders have proven themselves over history to be terrible at market timing. They get very bullish after a market rally, and bearish after a market fall. By the time the majority of them catch on to a trend, it’s too late – the trend is about to reverse. That's why we call this the ‘Sell Confidence"’indicator too, as it tells us how confident we should be in selling the market. "



“In practice, our Confidence Indexes rarely get below 30% or above 70%. Usually, they stay between 40% and 60%. When they move outside of those bands, it’s time to pay attention!






_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4444
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 27, 2010 - 09:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Key GFC Levels for XJO - past and near future

We can see from the 4 year weekly chart of the XJO that the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels were key levels for both support and resistance of the Primary wave Circle B rally during the GFC.

As mentioned in my market wrap on many occasions I do expect a pull back in the market in the short term before a final leg up into at least February 2011 and as late as May/June 2011. As far as support for the near term future pull back, we can see that the 20 and 50 week SMAs have touched at the 4628.18 level at this point in time. I would suggest that this may be a key support for any pull back. A break through this level would call into play that 38.2% Fibonacci level again.

As far as how high the following rally will take up the index into the first half of 2011 before its eventual demise we have the key overhead zone between 5177 and 5186 shown in orange. If it can break above this zone (and it's a pretty big IF) then the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 5426.37 is the obvious target level.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 601
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 27, 2010 - 06:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Hope everyone enjoyed Santa.

...Sail north out of Sydney delayed due to rain, so pondering the next few months movements on SPX.

(...the yacht has so much booze on board I am not sure I will be sailing that fast, but warmer weather, flatter seas, and nor'easter sea breezes will do the trick. No 'Hobart' for me, I normally wave them off south and then turn north...)

Back to the swiggles:

$CPCE Weekly still looks like it may deliver a healthy 'April 10 like' correction. The 2011 high may be the top of wave 2 south, one possible option.....

However, Wave 5 seems like it may have some legs left in it. If Wave 5 = Wave 1 then we have a target of 1291? Perhaps an Ending Diagonal Wave 5 to give a February 2011 high, with a further high in a fuller wave 2 south correction, may be the other option.

The alternative Wave 4 Triangle idea looks a lot less likely now as Rudy suggested in his Wrap.

Rudy, are there any other patterns you have mulling around in your head to see us through 2011, to pick up the possible Delta 2011 highs? Perhaps we can encourage others to post their '2011 EW forecast' over the course of the next few weeks, and we can review the outcome in Dec 2011?










Thanks for your input this year Rudy in setting up EWW and of course to the 'Amigos' who you have persuaded to add their knowledge directly to the site. I have learnt an enormous amount in a very short time, and very much appreciate the effort the 4Gs have contributed.


cheers guys & happy new year...

Bill


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4445
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 28, 2010 - 12:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The chart below is a bit of suggestion on what I think the pattern has been so far for the S&P500 and what it may do in the first 4 to 6 months of 2011.

As mentioned on many previous occasions, I believe that the GFC is creating a high level cycle wave [4] for the S&P500 which will probably continue on until at least 2013~2014.

The great plunge in the index was Primary wave Circle A and we are currently in the process of forming Primary wave Circle B which should complete sometime late in the first half of 2011.

At this point in time we are patiently waiting for a top to complete on a 5 wave corrective pattern that I am labelling yellow wave w. I do expect this top to complete in late December/early January. So that takes us to possibly the 4th January or thereabouts. Whether that top occurs at the 1261 level or the wave equality 1291 level as you suggest doesn't concern me other than the fact that I have probably entered my ETF GOLD trade a bit early.

Now why do I see the pattern forming that is shown on the chart below?

1) I am anticipating that once the yellow wave w completes, that we will have a retracement that will last around 5~6 weeks (mid to late February).

2) Once that retracement completes we will finally start the very last significant rally for the index which should complete sometime in the latter part of 1H of 2011.

Points 1) and 2)come from my Delta studies and I believe those of Andrew. Andrew can correct me if I'm wrong there.

As I expect this retracement to last around 5~6 weeks it means that the decline is of a higher degree than the last 5 waves. This is why I am suggesting a wxy pattern where the decline will be wave x and the final rally will be wave y.

You will note that I am expecting the completed Primary wave Circle B to complete somewhere around the 1313 level but that it not fixed in stone at this stage.

Note that if it does complete around this level then the Primary wave Circle B would have retraced over 70% of Primary wave Circle A. The significance of this is that it would mean that the highest probability pattern for Cycle wave [4] would be either a Flat pattern or a Triangle pattern (which is the one that I have always favoured). It would also mean that the more bearish scenarios suggested by Prechter and Co would diminish dramatically.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 602
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 28, 2010 - 05:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy,

Your count looks very convincing....

If red Wave (A) = red Wave (C) the target would be c.1564 which might take us up to the highs in July/October 2007, which formed the H&S pattern back then?

The Trend Channel off the March 09 low fits very snuggly into the next low 50% fib retrace ('x'), as the top channel just happens to pierce the eventual 2011 high on wave equality....a 38% rally off the new year low 'x', a series of highs for waves i (1313), iii (1425) and v to keep the Delta happy....could be fun!





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4447
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 29, 2010 - 07:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Whilst anything is possible, I doubt that we will reach the previous October 2007 high in the next couple of years.

Not that any of this matters because our intent is to make money out of the market no matter what pattern emerges. Whilst on that subject (ie, making money out of the stock market) I strongly suggest that readers go back over Randall's post 149 on the 13th December in the Astrology and Stock Markets thread.

By nature, we humans appear to enjoy making things complicated. Randall's simple trading system described in the above post would make you far more money than any study of Elliott Wave, Cycles Analysis or any other method that I'm aware of. Needless to say that I will continue to do that other stuff anyway but will be using his method in most of my trades this year.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 104
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 29, 2010 - 08:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy.
Better to be a master of one than a jack of all trades as the old
saying goes. 
At the end of the day the components of successful trading 
comprise of 80% psychology and 20% method. The holy Grail does
exist, it's within you and not your system.
It does not matter which approach you adopt whether it's fancy
Horoscope or a simple MA crossover as you mention above.

What does matter is that it proves to be useful for YOU across
ALL market conditions. Ie you making the right decisions and not
being whipsawed. More important you MUST be consistent in how
you use your approach.

Unless you can prove to yourself that this approach
CAN and DOES make consistent profits  for YOU over a period of time
across various markets and conditions in REAL time with REAL
money then you are wasting your time.

Just remember 90% of traders will lose in the long run. 
What differentiates the 90% of losers from the 10% of winners
is not the system they use, but rather HOW they use it and how
they go about making their trading decisions.

The technique you mentioned. I know plenty of traders losing money who are 
using similar approaches. Yet I also know others who use it and are consistently profitable. So in the in end
what it boils down to is the individual and what is right for you. 

Wishing you guys the best of success 



Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4448
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 29, 2010 - 09:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Very true Andrew. It's no different to when I was punting. I found that there were in fact 3 elements necessary for success. They being:

1) selection method (in share market terms this is the methodology you employ)

2) discipline in applying your methodology

3) money management

In punting, and I'm fairly certain that it would be the same in share market investing, if you failed in any one of those areas then you failed altogether.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 603
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 29, 2010 - 03:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

The MA approach is one simple technique, when used with others can be very useful. Obviously, it works less successfully in a market moving sideways.

The last six months trading on SPX and other US indices proved this system very useful. Using the 'juiced up' etf's TNA & TZA with this system would have provided mega returns over the past 6 months with only a few false starts...5 to 6 trades in six months and spend your time doing something else! I prefer the 'juiced etfs' rather than trying to identify the next 'penny dreadful' to have a run...personnal choice, but I understand it is not for everyone.

I intend to use this system next year, with an overlay of the '4G magic' & the W%14 for guidance!

...that's the plan....

Interesting to note that every turning point in the SPX over the past six months, was met by double or triple tops or bottoms...we are possibly at that point again right now, so as soon as that green MA crosses I'm in TZA!





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4450
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 29, 2010 - 03:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Yep, I think that we have some pretty powerful tools available for us this year. Randall's particular MAs produce very little whip saw action and when used with his special MACD set up it is very good. The thing about it is that you have to play it EOD which possibly isn't a bad idea anyway otherwise you will possibly get some false signals. Especially for a 'trigger happy' guy like me.

The nice part about his set up is that it works on daily, weekly and monthly. He advises you to start looking at the monthly, then weekly and finally daily (for entry) so that you get a more complete picture of how long lasting the move may go for.

(Message edited by rdumas on December 29, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 105
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 29, 2010 - 04:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I will be keenly interested to see how you guys
fare after 6- 12 months.
Weighted and exponential filters have
been around for 100 years. They are nothing
new and this is nothing new.

The problems I see is as follows:

- this is hindsight analysis and as such the
appropriate "look back period" as well as
filter span have been chosen with this
in mind
- filter spans need to be adjusted continuously
because market dynamics are changing ( ie
pattern of trend is changing). As such the MA
patterns will change with it and more whipsaws
might evolve UNLESS filter spans adapt to these.
John Ehlers has developed some nice filters
that do a pretty good job of adapting to various
market conditions


For me there is only one aspect of market that
is necessary. That is the pattern of trend. Simply
by drawing done simple trend lines to gauge
Price momemtums as well support and resistance
coupled with price pattern is that is needed to
keep things simple


Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 604
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 29, 2010 - 05:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Andrew

I take your point Andrew.

I have been in and out of TZA & TNA for a while. As you can see from the attached chart, simply using the 3&10 MAs would have delivered a c.100% return during this rally using this system.

The EW pattern is fairly clear (albeit using the spx count format).

Your Delta system did very well picking the SPX (and TNA as it happens) turning points....

I sense the market will continue to be volatile in 2011, and this method is very useful in a market which is charging one way then reversing hard....






Wave 1 was a bit of a non event @5%

Wave 2 produced a reasonable run via TZA @13%

Wave 3 was the bonanza @50%

Wave 4 nothing

Wave 5 another beauty! @c.30%



Wave v of 5 is approaching price & time equality with wave i of 5, and we have a multiple top forming. Top may be in, awaiting '3' to cross '10' and TZA is a buy.


I'll give it a crack and see how it runs....

bill


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4451
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 30, 2010 - 07:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

I also take your point and there is no doubt that the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. As Bill has correctly pointed out, all systems based on MAs of any type work best in trending markets and are pretty useless in flat markets. One of the nice things about the GFC is that with the amount of fear and greed in the market you will get some pretty volatile market moves.

One point that I should point out is the very specific MAs that Randall uses, namely the 'open' type of 5 EMA and the 'normal' WMA but these are used in conjunction with his very specific set up for the MACD. I will use the weekly 2 year chart for CBA just as an example.

The 5 week open EMA is red whereas the 5 week WMA is green.

I have eliminated the price bars so that you can focus purely on the MACD and MA lines. Note that the system calls for the green line on the MACD AND the green line on the MA pair to be above the red line to get a 'buy' signal. I has indicated the buy signals by the blue vertical lines.

You get a 'sell' signal (red line) the moment that one or more of the green lines breaks through the red line/s.





Now I have personally had a bad habit during the GFC (born out of a healthy respect for the continuing possibility surprise moves during these times) of both premature entries and exits. I am hoping that this tool may reduce that tendency.

You mention the need to keep things simple, well I don't know of any thing more simple than the cutting of two lines. I think that it's important not to become too religious about ruling methodologies in or out. Each has its strengths and weaknesses and if the various methodologies can give you a confluence of signals then I believe that this is a good thing rather than bad.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rash
Member
Username: rash

Post Number: 151
Registered: 07-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 30, 2010 - 11:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings, y'all.

It is quite true that many "systems" have been around forever.

I know one guy who is terribly successful who uses only one moving average ... a 5EMA ... and goes Long on the second close above the EMA and exits, or goes Short, on the second close below the EMA.

He has the discipline to apply the rule regardless.

I've been searching my files for a couple of weeks trying to find an article by a guy who was a Wall Street Wunderkind and who won the trader-of-the-year competition several years in a row.

He went into a huge slump and couldn't work out why ... so decided to teach his system to a group of hand-picked newbies. He selected a group of new Wall Street wonderkids and a group of soldiers, specifically US Marines.

He taught them the system, showed exactly how it worked and told them when they SHOULD hit the Buy and Sell buttons, but allowed some discretion.

What he found was ... the Jarheads massively outperformed the Wall Street whiz boys. They didn't THINK! They just followed orders. Having had the system explained so that they knew from backtesting that it worked MOST of the time, they adopted the soldier's mentality ... minimise the casualties and collateral damage as much as possible, accept you'll lose the occasional skirmish, but know from the plan that you'll win not just most of the battles, but the war.

The Wall Street boys thought too much ... their skill, their knowledge, their brilliance, their expectations kept getting in the road of simply pressing the Buy or Sell buttons.

I posted The Idiot in the fortune teller's tent to try to give some help to people like Hal, who admit all the negativity has made them afraid to go Long many times in the past year or two.

Some common sense does need to be applied; and as Rudy has indicated the system itself has a system ... look at the Monthly and Weekly Idiots first and then use the Daily Idiot with fast MACD to help time the Entry or Exit.

It is not for everyone. Anyone who backtests it properly, using Monthly, Weekly and Daily timeframes will soon be able to work out for themselves whether it's worth their following. It is designed to try to remove the THINKING ... the whipsawing that occurs by having too many conflicting wave options, too many never-ending diagonals, too many opinions about whether the market SHOULD go up or down according to one's individual interpretation of economic conditions.

It is called The Idiot ... because the Jarheads proved a high IQ and a lot of information can be the biggest disadvantage of all when trying to make money from trading.

If anyone doesn't like The Idiot, it's no skin off my nose and there are many alternatives.

In fact, I'll attach one ... the world famous Turtle Trading System, for which thousands of people have paid thousands of dollars.

You'll note the comments made ... knowing the rules won't help those who cannot, or will not, follow them.

And one last reiteration ... a bunch of jarhead grunts turned out to be better traders than Yale/Harvard wonder boys, because they followed the rules of their system, rather than the dictates on their Ego.


application/pdfa
original turtle trading rules.pdf (277.1 k)



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 106
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: 
Votes: 2


Friday, December 31, 2010 - 09:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Guys or should I say Grail Seekers

Since I have conversed with you guys either here on this thread or within the G4 of which I am no longer affiliated with, you guys have been chopping and changing approaches.

Amongst the approaches you have ( and I should include myself ) looked at are as follows:-

- Elliott Waves
- Financial Astrology
- Planetary Lines
- Fibonacci
- Primitive trendlines along with support and resistance
- Delta
- Dynamic Cycles
- Fixed Cycles
- Lunar Cycles and phases
- Bradley dates
- Differential CCI’s
- Price Patterns
- Williams %R Indicator
- MACD
I am sure there are more……

Obviously the above have not rewarded enough in terms of profit and the quest continues with the latest answer being becoming MA Crossover Trend followers.

I learnt 7 years ago that one needs to find an approach that SUITS their personality. It doesn’t matter what it is, but it must be able to give a definable edge…

My edge is the fusing of pattern, price and time.
The pattern aspect incorporates the study of the pattern of trend, that is the foundation for everything else I look at. PRICE IS KING. All your MA indicators are derived from what price has ALREADY done, so surely price itself is the best “indicator”??? MA’s are like akin to “chasing shadows across the wall”

As price pattern itself is the core of what I do, once I am happy with that I then incorporate a time factor within price being either Delta and my own Dynamic Cycles. This paradigm has not changed for 6 years and has been profitable for me in 6 years in both bullish and bearish markets.

Rather than look for NEW approaches for confluence, I have found it better to look at my strengths and try to build on them. i.e try and improve the systems I already use and I know work for me. That is why I have turned a blind eye to a lot of the approaches listed above within the G4.



Personally I have tried the Turtle Trend Following method years ago and it did not work for me. I know what the next question will be. “Did I follow the Rules” ?

Well the answer is no. This is because I did not do the trading, my PC did.
I wrote a script that made the trade execution automatically based on my MA crossover, MACD, and stop loss criteria in the FX markets. I back tested it before hand and every thing looked good.
What happened in realtime? Well I found that for most of the time I ended up with a “string of stopouts” After doing the sums in the end I found that sum of the stopouts and brokerage fees exceeded the profits made on the trades that were good. That was not the biggest problem though, as I found myself continually re adjusting the span of the MA’s to suit the never ending change in market conditions.

This taught me one important thing. That SIMPLE does not necessarily mean profits even if discipline is maintained. What is needed is an EDGE, a method that can filter most of the 50/50 trades and hopefully let us focus on the 80/20 trades.

So in summary my advice is as follows:-

- Develop a system that has a definable edge in the market
- Look to your current strengths and try to build on them
- Only take the high probability trades and forget the 50/50 trades. The MA crossover will not differentiate between them and it will only give you a buy or sell signal.

Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rash
Member
Username: rash

Post Number: 152
Registered: 07-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 31, 2010 - 09:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings.

That's excellent advice, Andrew.

We're all "wired" in a different way and need to settle on an approach that suits our individual wiring.

Adapting wave analysis to my long-term toolbox of spooky stuff and more traditional tech analysis has been one of the most instructive and enjoyable learning experiences of the past decade for me ... and many, many thanks to both you and Rudy for the education.

And to Rudy ... many, many thanks for opening the EWW room. It has been a grand addition to the IC threads and has provided a forum not just for learning the basics of E-Dubya, but also for other useful techniques ... and been a lot of fun.

Happy New Year to everyone and best wishes for a PROSPEROUS 2011 ... no matter which way the markets gyrate and no matter which approach you may adopt to suit your personality.

Ciao - RA


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4454
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 31, 2010 - 11:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

I too have had a great time this year learning new skills through my association with yourself and Barry as well as the other posters on this thread.

It is my view that we can never stop learning and acquiring new skills and knowledge. Those of us who are willing to continue learning and adding to our previous experiences will continue to become better investors. If we get to a stage where we believe that we know it all then we run the risk of stunting our growth. Your excellent idiot system had I applied it to the entry on my ETF GOLD trade would mean that I would be almost ready to buy the stock as I am now only waiting for the buy signal on the MACD indicator.

Whilst I am more than happy using Andrew's cycle analysis and both our Delta studies to have entered a little too early, having those additional tools definitely improves my ability to more accurately enter and exit my trades.

I look forward to using the things that I have learned this year in my investments next year. As I won't be posting any more today, I would like to take this opportunity to wish readers and contributors to this thread all the best for 2011.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 107
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 31, 2010 - 11:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

In this instance you will find that because you are using a lagging indicator, by the time you actually do get your signal, it probably won’t be a great deal of difference from where you actually entered.

Knowing that your cycle bottomed at that time you know that there is approximately “x’ amount of time in a rally no matter how the market moves ( i.e strong trend or a creeping trend) The MA crossover however might have you in and out multiple times within that trend and so you will probably eat up your initial gains on those whipsaws. This depends offcourse on the setting you have selected for your MA’s.

Further to this, because you are trading the “indicator” and not price there is a problem. A moving average is made up closing prices (or in this case open prices) and as such gives you nothing in terms of pattern. My point here is that price can move up and down a hell of a long way in 1-2 days and actually close in a different position in which case you could have been a long way away from your peak or bottom. The MA will not reflect this, especially with respect to a lot of volatility.

Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 238
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, January 01, 2011 - 02:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Institutional index xii rolling over.

SPY DIA QQQQ AND VLI showing similar patterns and timing.





_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4456
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, January 01, 2011 - 07:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

I like your idea of showing the Fibonacci time extensions on your chart. Great concept.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 108
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, January 02, 2011 - 09:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Back on the 23rd December I made mention of an alternate date
for a completion of 7-10th. This was based on some different time cycles I have been experimenting with that differ somewhat from Delta.
The aim of these cycles is to improve the resolution of the MTD points. Looking at this closer this looks like it could be the 7th plus or minus 2 days. Either the first week of Jan should provide a termination.
Despite the decline in the XAO on the last day of trading, we might see one more brief push to to higher level in the days ahead before turning down.

This peak will not just be an MTD peak. We have higher order cycles peaking at the same time here. As such I am expecting
an 8 week decline to start at this juncture finishing 3rd to 4th week February.

Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
xao_ew analysis.xls (193.0 k)



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4457
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 03, 2011 - 07:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



New School Fibonacci Market Cycle Analysis

Hi Folks,

A careful read of the following article will open up a whole new look into the use of Fibonacci ratios for you. You may need to read it a few times to fully understand what it is attempting to reveal to you.



http://www.safehaven.com/article/19510/new-school-fibonacci-market-cycle-analysi s







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4458
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 03, 2011 - 02:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Index Sell Signals based on the Idiot System

For those who are interested, daily sell signals have occurred on the following indices:

XJO
Russell 2000
Nasdaq

Currently whilst close, we do not have a sell signal yet on the following indices:

Wilshire 5000
DOW
S&P500



(Message edited by rdumas on January 03, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
Other Threads  
Last PosterPostsPagesLast Post
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through May 23, 2011gdd350 23-May-11  10:06 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through May 09, 2011gdd350 09-May-11  12:34 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through April 22, 2011ehmu50 22-Apr-11  10:58 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 28, 2011rdumas50 28-Mar-11  10:44 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 19, 2011ivor50 19-Mar-11  11:19 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 16, 2011billt50 16-Mar-11  06:42 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 04, 2011billt50 04-Mar-11  08:01 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through February 24, 2011billt50 24-Feb-11  02:21 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through February 12, 2011ehmu50 12-Feb-11  02:46 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 17, 2010ehmu50 17-Dec-10  10:44 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 08, 2010rdumas50 08-Dec-10  06:45 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 02, 2010skyhawk50 02-Dec-10  09:49 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 29, 2010ehmu50 29-Nov-10  03:36 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 24, 2010rdumas50 24-Nov-10  07:36 am

Threads by Last Post Time:

First Previous 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 Next Last

Administration Administration   Log Out Log Out    

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»