You need to register separately on the Chart Forum
- see Chart Forum Help
Edit Profile Profile Help Help
Forum Rules Forum Rules Advanced Help/Instructions Advanced Help
Search Last 1|3|7 Days Latest Posts Latest Posts
Search Search Forum Tree View Tree View
   

Archive through February 12, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through February 12, 2011

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»


Author Message

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
eblode
Member
Username: eblode

Post Number: 1503
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, January 04, 2011 - 12:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

Sold out of TRS at 2.81 this morning. Loaded up on MTU & AGO

Eugenio


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4459
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, January 04, 2011 - 02:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eugenio,

I think that it was a wise decision to get out of TRS matey and it looks like you did it just in a nick of time. MTU sure looks like a screamer.

MTU sure looks like a bit of a screamer and AGO looks promising. Good luck with your trades.

All my money is sitting in cash and GOLD at present. GOLD has finally woken out of its slumber. Hopefully it's a sign of things to come.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 243
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, January 06, 2011 - 09:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

TNA TZA alter-egos. I've been looking for an index that would present a more stable chart to trigger trades on tna/tza. What I came up with was RUT and IWM which both represent the Russell 2000.

What I noticed is that there's no way that the juiced etf's are getting their claimed 3X. I have an opinion about what causes this, but will refrain.

Attaching two charts so you can view for yourself. I'll post a comparison of uwm and tza using an idiot plot later.






_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 244
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, January 06, 2011 - 09:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OK, here is UWM and secondly TZA.






_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 605
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 07, 2011 - 08:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,


Perhaps not for this site, but to answer your question or observation.

The juiced ETF’s such as TNA are ‘x3 daily’ returns not ‘weekly’ or ‘yearly’.

Refer to Direxion website for more info:

“The pursuit of daily leveraged investment goals means that the return of a Fund for a period longer than a full trading day will be the product of the series of daily leveraged returns for each trading day during the relevant period. As a consequence, especially in periods of market volatility, the path of the benchmark during the longer period may be at least as important to the Fund's return for the longer period as the cumulative return of the benchmark for the relevant longer period.”

TNA has risen from $31.50 to $77.42 during the rally from late August 2010, a rise of over 145%.

RUT has risen from 588.58 to 801.13 during the same period, a rise of 36.1%. A 300% multiple of RUT should have produced a 108.3% outcome on TNA, so in this rally TNA has outperformed.

Using the MA process on TNA you would have doubled your money by now. You would have bought in at the $36/$37 level and you would be still holding today at $74.38. The Wave 3 top 'sell' and wave 4 bottom 'buy in' would have been at a similar price.





ERX 150% & SOXL 157% slightly outperformed TNA but had a more volatile ride.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 606
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 07, 2011 - 09:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

Few Aussie Small Caps have performed as consistently as TNA over the last rally.

SDL Sundance & CPL Coalspur have been the standouts here in Aus for a steady ride north, but you would have been very astute to single out these two stocks back in August 2010 for the substantial run they they have had.

For me, TNA avoids the hunt for the next big thing...and TZA does the same in reverse.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 246
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 07, 2011 - 11:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

A couple of questions:

What was making me a little nervous about TZA is that it looks more volatile than TNA. I was thinking that there may be some sort of EW explanation for that period from May to August per attached charts. Are you expecting the same kind of volatility for the upcoming correction ?

Secondly, I was considering the merits of shorting TNA vs buying TZA considering the obvious difference in the personalities of the two. Do you have an opinion regarding the shorting idea?

It may be difficult to compare the two, since the 200day chart shows that the uptrends were much less volatile that the other periods.


TNA



TZA



_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 607
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 07, 2011 - 11:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Speaking of RUT, since the new year RUT has put in a lower low and lower high, despite SPX still posting higher.

SPX may try to top at the 1290 level (wave 5 = wave 1), but the early canary RUT may have topped @ 801? Trendline has broken...

... beginning to replace some initial TZA's to short the RUT at the top of wave ii... waiting for the MA signals to cross to add further.





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 608
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 07, 2011 - 12:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



our posts crossed there Hal,

I intend to short RUT by using TZA...starting to buy in now...


TZA is a daily leveraged etf, so I accept that at times it may not fully capture the x3 correction of RUT over an entire correction leg. It gets close enough for me. At times it may exceed the target, so there can be an upside too.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 247
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 07, 2011 - 12:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ok thanks

H


_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 609
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, January 09, 2011 - 05:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With $SPXA50R @ 80.80, reversing below the MA(20) it would appear a trend reversal may play out on SPX this week. Previous cross overs of the MA(20) against the $SPXA50R signalled the corrections in April, August & November last year:





SPX may have topped last week and perhaps we may be in a wave iii of iii set up south....






PUG has SPX going higher before the fall.....


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4463
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 10, 2011 - 08:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

Due to house renovation commitments during the next few months my time spent posting will be somewhat limited. I will continue to produce my market wrap and occasionally post anything that I see that is of interest.

I read the following very good technical analysis this morning: http://www.safehaven.com/article/19591/market-turning-points-weekend-report


I also recommend Andre Gratian's website, in particular what he has to say in his "Philosophy and Methodology" and "Trading/Investing Strategy" sections of his website.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
starboard_tack
Member
Username: starboard_tack

Post Number: 401
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 10, 2011 - 10:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I have been following your posts about TZA and TNA with interest for a while now, and have been back-testing performance. Obviously the $AU/$US exchange rate has a big part to play in the profitability, but I am still impressed with the results so far.

Do you mind sharing with us your thoughts on the best method of trading these US shares from Australia? Would you recommend using CFD's, or direct international trade through a broker like Commsec. Each have their drawbacks.

Commsec charges brokerage of USD$71.50 or 0.825%, then there would be fees when transferring funds between the AUD$ and USD$ accounts, and then there are other fees like custody fees, incoming and outgoing transfer fees, and internal transfer fees!

Do you know of any issues relevant to a Self Managed Super Fund?

TIA
Starb'd

PS I hope you got some good sailing in.


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 610
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 10, 2011 - 03:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Star'd

Just back from an initial sailaway, but planning another, once this current weather pattern sorts itself out. Three days of rain forecast in Sydney but we have blue skies and tropical heat! I may ask the 4Gs to forecast the weather too - they may get closer to reality than BOM!

Back to trading issues.

The $USD/$AUD is always an issue. I take the view that in the end it balances itself out. On a TZA run, the $AUD is generally pulling back with the market decline, so you get an extra bang for your buck...on the TNA leg you have a head wind with the $AUD strengthening - but I tend not to worry about it. At some point this year if Rudy's & the 4Gs thoughts hold true and the market pulls back significantly, I doubt the $AUD will be at parity. The TZA run in $AUD terms in that fuller correction will be exceptional.

I have traded directly via Commsec International Trading Desk, who set you up with a Pershing Account. The fees are ridiculous really, so other lower cost trading platforms could be used such as 'Interactive Brokers'. Keeping everything within Commsec may have appeal however, and of course the higher fees are offset by the extra bang out of these turbo etf's, and the comfort that you are dealing with Commsec & Pershing.....


In terms of your SMSF, I suggest you review the terms of your Investment Strategy within your SMSF with your advisers to ensure that you are covered to use your SMSF to trade these ETFs.

Often the SMSF Investment Strategy reads something like this:

"With regard to the investment objectives outlined above the Trustees have adopted to pursue an Investment Strategy aimed at accumulating over the long term some or all of the following asset classes:

- Property Investment where there is no borrowing made by the SMSF;
- Property Investment where there is a borrowing made by the SMSF;
- ASX Listed Securities;
- ASX Listed and Exchange Traded Options;
- ASX Listed Warrants;
- CFDs;
- Australian and International Managed Funds
- Cash;
- Term Deposits;
- Other Cash Investments including, bonds cash management trusts and appropriate derivative products;
- Physical Metals
- Other Assets that the Trustee considers appropriate to the extent permitted by the Trust Deed and Superannuation Regulations
- all Listed Securities traded via Commsec Domestic and International Trading Accounts"

You need to seek advice that your SMSF allows such a trade.


Numerous posters on the free Public Chartlists on 'Stockcharts' trade these etfs and nothing else. Ron Walker and Michael Eckert have live 10/30/60 minute charts on their chartlist, Richard Lehman has 5 min/60 min/Daily minute charts on RUT which are very useful too. Walker has a nightly blog from California which is informative......


Perhaps if you are able to trade these ETFs you might begin via Commsec, then if it is something you wish to pursue look at lower cost brokers over time....

I hope that helps...

Meanwhile RUT may have commenced a wave iii correction south - and on a port tack to a iii of iii downwind event? Prepare to hoist!

I sold out of TNA after New Year and I bought TZA at the top of RUT wave ii with a stop at the previous RUT high on the 3rd/4th. I like those plays the best, lots of possible downside with a short overhead stop. I get them wrong often - but, in the end they play out and reward big time. I'll add further as the correction gets a confirming MA 3 & MA 10 crossover. I tend to stay in for the entire correction south for TZA, others of course day trade the individual legs, but I enjoy sleeping too much (& I may be over 0.5 late in the night)...








Bill


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
starboard_tack
Member
Username: starboard_tack

Post Number: 402
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 10, 2011 - 06:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bill

That more than answered my questions.

I have just printed the Commsec application forms - OMG! I might get them filled in, sent, re-send omissions/corrections, and approved by the time TZA will be looking good for the next cycle - maybe!

Many thanks for the help,
Starboard


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 612
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 10, 2011 - 06:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Star'd & Hal,


TNA looks to have thrown up the sell signal at the recent top, which along with other indicators, initiated the sell.

The TNA buy in target will be in the price range of wave 4 (on the spx count).... 38% & 50% fib sit there too...lots of support at the wave 4 termination level.

Long TZA for now, with more to add in the next few days if 3 & 10 day MAs cross....






Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 513
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 10, 2011 - 11:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

Prechter has been talking about these indicators of late.. some back up info I came across;

We continue to wave the yellow flag, and at this point, perhaps it should be a bright red one. Maybe we'll bring the crimson one out next week. Sentiment remains skewed so far to the bullish side that one might expect the stock market to be at all-time highs and the economy to be roaring on 12 cylinders. Emerging markets remain in a corrective mode. The U.S. Dollar Index continues its consolidative tone, but remains in an intermediate-term uptrend, something we think will put a ceiling on stocks. And, while certainly not all-inclusive, rallies into earnings seasons have not been friendly to equity markets of late. As we said recently, stocks generally go down much faster than they go up, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a very swift move to the downside in the coming weeks.

Market sentiment continues to push the limits of excessiveness and we believe this is a warning that investors need to pay attention to. Investor's Intelligence poll of newsletter writers recently hit 58.8% bulls, the highest since October 2007. Consensus poll is up to 71% bulls, the highest since the April/May period of this year. The American Association of Individual Investors poll recently had 63% bulls and only 16% bears among its participants. This is the greatest percentage of bulls since 2004 and the lowest percentage of bears since late 2005.

We continue to see very low readings on the CBOE equity-only put/call (p/c) ratios, another key warning, in our view. The readings this week (Mon. - Thurs.) have all been below 0.50, well below the 200-day simple moving average, and some of the lowest readings in the last 10 years. The 30-day exponential equity-only p/c ratio fell to 0.53 yesterday, approaching the low of 0.50 in April. The 10-day ratio dropped to 0.51 yesterday, close to its 0.48 reading in mid-December and not far from its April low of 0.44.

The equity-only p/c ratio is a contrary indicator, as it measures what the so-called "dumb money" is doing. On the flip side, the OEX p/c ratio is a coincident indicator and shows what the "smart money" is doing. Unfortunately for the bulls, the smart money is looking for a pullback or correction in equity prices. Toward the end of December, the 5-day simple OEX p/c ratio hit an extremely high 2.34, showing an extreme preference for put options by large traders. This was the highest reading since February 2007. The 30-day exponential OEX p/c hit 1.46 at the end of December, the highest reading since January 2010.

The ISEE call/put ratios are showing their highest levels since 2007. The ISE Sentiment Index is a unique call/put value that only uses opening long customer transactions to calculate bullish/bearish market direction. Opening long transactions are thought to best represent market sentiment because investors often buy call and put options to express their actual market view of a particular stock. Market maker and firm trades, which are excluded, are not considered representative of true market sentiment due to their specialized nature. The 50-day ISEE call/put ratio is back up to 134%, the highest since May 2009.

Looking at the action of emerging markets, which many times lead the U.S. at tops and bottoms, the picture is not a pretty one. The iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) remains in a downtrend that started in early November, and at its recent low, was down 12%. The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (EWZ) also remains in a downtrend that started in early November and had recently lost about 9.5%. The WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) has also been falling since November and at its recent low, was off over 14%. If emerging markets are so important to the U.S., then their recent price action may be foretelling some frightening times for U.S. investors.

The U.S. Dollar Index has been a tough read of late, but the overall intermediate-term price trend remains higher and, unfortunately for the stock market, the dollar is close to posting new highs for the current move. The index is at 81, just below the closing recent intraday high 81.44. It appears imminent to us that the greenback will break out and see another leg to the upside. We view the next likely rally in the dollar as bearish for stocks and it could potentially put an end to the current equity rally. Over the last year or two, the stock market and the dollar have been linked very closely. Although, sometimes an early reversal to the upside by the dollar will be ignored by stocks, and with it, an outpouring of media attention that the link is no longer valid, it has been our experience that eventually dollar strength equals equity weakness.

Another feather in the cap of the bears is that the equity markets have rallied hard into another EPS season. This has not been a good setup for stocks over the last year or two. Rallies into Q2 2009, Q3 2009, Q4 2009, and Q1 2010 earnings seasons all ended in pullbacks or corrections. Will Q4 2010 be different? We doubt it.

We are looking for a 38.2% to 61.8% retracement of the rally in the S&P 500 that started in August. A 38.2% giveback would equate to a decline to the 1,190 region while the larger retracement gives us a potential target down to the 1,130 area. There are certainly other potential pieces of support and they include the rising 65-day exponential average at 1,213 and the rising 200-day exponential average at 1,156.

There is a small layer of chart support that was formed during the bottoming process in November that lies between 1,173 and 1,200. In our view, the most important piece of support for the long-term health of the bull market is in the 1,130 region -- the breakout level from the bullish reversal pattern from the summer.

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 250
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, January 11, 2011 - 03:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

TZA and TNA have given signals (on-off-on-off-on-off) on the 60min, but are skipping along the support resistance lines, horizontal plus note the proximity to the 200ma on the 60min.

I'm waiting for the W% signal and the idiot signal on the daily, but will possibly miss the juice in the initial break.

I anticipate a gap, or a rapid exit of the critical balance because I believe that there are many investors use these symbols as hedges for other positions. This makes it a very interesting trade, both short tna and long tza.

$16 looks like the critical level on TZA, but as I said, we probably won't see that level for long due to the congested trade there.

I may be imagining the repeated 3-3-3 patterns that I'm seeing on multiple time frames, but this would also likely imply a reversal.

There is further pressure for a market breakdown, if you look at the second chart, the $/vix is back in the range where the impetus is on the FED again to sustain the buying.








_____ n a m a s t e

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 516
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, January 12, 2011 - 09:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks to me like our market is in the midst of micro 4th wave up which should see us test 4733 today before resuming the selloff. My short term target over the coming days is 4632.

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4465
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 14, 2011 - 01:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 Possibilities

To get some idea of what may happen tomorrow (the last day before a 3 day weekend for the Americans) I thought that I would look at the S&P500 over a number of time frames.

The 25 minute chart shows that we have commenced a small move up which has an approximate ceiling of 1287 on a rising W%R14 indicator.

The 50 minute chart verifies this move as a bounce off the MBB at 1282 with a ceiling of around 1291 (a key resistance level that many have spoken about) on a rising W%R14 indicator.

The 99 minute chart has an MBB at the 1276 level, a ceiling of 1292 but the W%R14 is falling out of overbought territory. As the MBB has provided good support in the past it is likely to do so again.

The daily chart has an MBB at the 1264 level and is in overbought territory with a W%R14 indicator that has just dipped.

Summary

So tomorrow may see a retest of the 1287 level for the 3rd time (previous recent highs were 1286.70 and 1286.87). If it gets through this then the next target levels are 1291~1292.

For the current rally to remain intact it will need to remain above the 1282 level, if that fails the 1276 level. If it cannot do this then the index is in trouble and a move below 1264 (and even more so 1262) would seal its fate. At this stage it can go either way but the levels mentioned could give us a clue as the price action plays within those bounds.















I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 613
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 14, 2011 - 06:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It looks as if the $BPSPX is at final topping level, now similar to the April '10 peak.

I agree Rudy, 1291 looks like the SPX target, with Wave 5 to equal Wave 1, perhaps tonight or on Tuesday.





1184 (38% retrace) looks the possible target, with the wave 4 low at 1173 a level of strong support....


My target for RUT is 701 (currently 800), so a 14% pullback, with a possible c.42% gain for TZA.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4475
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, January 23, 2011 - 10:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



View on the S&P500

The never ending 'topping' process continues unabated. Currently we are in a position where it is possible that the top for the S&P500 was put in place at 1296.06 on the 18th January because we have been given a 'sell' on both the daily Idiot system and the W%R14 indicator.

From a channelling perspective, we are still in neutral territory caught between a bullish red channel and a bearish blue channel. I suspect that the short term trend will be determined in the next couple of days by the breaching of one of those two channels. The key levels are shown on the chart.





For the medium term trend however, a significant retracement at this stage would not take place unless the medium term trend line in the chart below was taken out. In the next few days that trend line would be located around the 1262~1263 levels.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 614
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 09:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy


Back from an extended sail….didn’t want to come back!


I have read your Market Wraps, so I’m up to speed.

Interested to get your current take on the EW Count?

4Gs larger timeframe count (for those that need recalling) is this:









Wave Circle B could have completed in a 5/3/5 format off the March 09 low? The 5 wave count up from the 1010 low looks reasonably convincing. The alternative is that the recent 1302 top might be the top of 3 of 5 (or even 3 of 3 of 5), something like this:










SPX’s latest action, seems to have confirmed RUT’s activity since 18 January. RUT perhaps is in a 3 of 3 down position, with a H&S pattern to support a substantial push further south:









Interesting to note that for all of 2010, the US economy expanded 2.9 percent, the most in five years, after shrinking 2.6 percent in 2009. The U.S. economy accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2010 as consumer spending climbed by the most in more than four years. Gross domestic product grew at a 3.2 percent annual rate. This FA may suggest a further leg up before we see Wave Circle B completing?







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 522
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 11:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

Good piece of technical commentary across a number of indices and asset classes.

Technical Trends

01/28/2011-02:56 PM ET ROUND NUMBER REJECTION

Despite the hoopla over the DJIA crossing 12,000 and S&P 500 breaching 1,300 this week, we see mounting cracks in the dam. Many indices in the U.S. as well as globally have failed to follow the DJIA and S&P 500 over the last week, and we see this as a major warning that a pullback or correction is near. In addition to the non-confirmations by many indices, we are also seeing plenty of divergences with respect to market internal data. At the same time, price momentum is overbought on a daily and weekly basis, and market sentiment is tilted very heavily toward the bullish camp. This, to us, all adds up to a 5% to 10% decline in the major indices over the next month or two.

While the DJIA and S&P 500 have posted new bull market highs, the DJ Transports and the S&P SmallCap 600 have already dropped 4% from recent closing high to closing low. In addition, both the transports and the small caps have broken their rising trendlines off the lows since August, raising the possibility that a pullback has started in certain segments of the market. There have been glaring divergences with emerging markets, especially China, India, and Brazil. Emerging markets are many times leaders during advances and declines, so this is very worrisome. Finally, crude oil prices have finally topped, in our view, breaking their uptrend line since August and tracing out a lower low.

Internally, the 10-day NASDAQ up issues ratio, the 6-day summation of NASDAQ up/down volume, the 10-day NASDAQ up/down volume ratio, the 10-day NYSE up issues ratio, the 10-day NYSE up/down volume ratio, and the number of new NYSE new highs vs. NYSE new lows have all put in at least one, if not multiple, bearish divergences. Some former market leaders have also not followed the blue chip indices to new highs, and in some instances, these former highflyers have gotten pounded. Many times, when high beta stocks as well as higher beta indices start to lag, it is a warning sign that the overall market is headed for some trouble.

Initial support for the S&P 500 comes from a bullish trendline off the August lows, and this line sits at 1,270 when looking out a couple of days. The 65-day exponential average lies at 1,239, while a 23.6% retracement of the rally since August targets the 1,234 level. These are all minor supports that we think will be taken out during the current pullback. The first real piece of chart resistance comes in at 1,225 from the highs in early November. The first piece of any substantial chart support for the "500" lies down in the 1,173 to 1,200 region. A decline to this area of chart support would represent a 38.2% to 50% retracement of the rally since August. It would also coincide with a test of the rising 200-day exponential average, which sits at 1,173. Interestingly, the bull market trendline, which is drawn off the lows since March 2009, also sits in the 1,170 area when projecting into late February.

The options market continues to give off warnings of an impending stock market decline. Data from the CBOE is showing persistently high readings from the OEX put/call (p/c) ratio. Unlike the equity put/call ratio, the OEX put/call ratio should be considered in a non-contrarian manner. Perhaps due to the generally higher premium (cost) of index options as opposed to equity options, OEX options appear to attract a more sophisticated trader, or at least those who are more adept at timing the market. The 5-day OEX p/c ratio was 1.62 Thursday, below its recent highs, but still well above its long-term average. The 30-day ratio is very close to its mid-January high, which was the highest level since late 2007. At the same time, the CBOE equity-only p/c, considered a "dumb money" indicator, remains depressed, as smaller investors continue to bet heavily on what he thinks are ever-rising stock prices. In our view, this combination in the options market is not favorable for the stock market.

Gold prices have dropped to an area of multiple technical supports, and with Friday's bounce, we think a short-term rally is currently taking shape. In addition to multiple supports, gold has cycled into oversold territory based on daily momentum, and this raises the chances for a rally, in our view. On Thursday, prices dropped to chart support, from the low in October, in the $1,320/oz. region. This level also represents a 38.2% retracement of the rally from July to early January. There are numerous pieces of resistance up in the $1,350 to $1,360/oz. zone, so we expect a small rally followed by another leg to the downside, which eclipses yesterday's low. That could then finally set things up for the next attractive buy point for gold.

Silver prices are also bouncing off of chart support, seen in the $27/oz. area; however, there is a fair amount of overhead supply sitting right on top of prices. We think silver could see another leg down once the current rally ends.

A pullback in stocks should, in our view, be beneficial for Treasury bonds as well as the U.S. Dollar Index. The 10-year Treasury yield has been bouncing around like a super ball in a very small room of late. Yields have mostly been confined to the 3.3% to 3.5% zone since the middle of December. With prices reaching oversold territory recently, and market sentiment very bearish toward bonds, we see yields breaking down after the more than 100 basis point jump we saw between October and December. We think the 10-year yield could fall back into the 2.8% to 3.0% region during the pullback in the stock market.

The U.S. Dollar Index looks like it may have bottomed this week just below the 78 level. In the near term, we think the index will trade back into the area it traded in during December and early January of 79 to 81. Eventually, however, we see the greenback heading down to test its bear market lows near 70.

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 615
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 03:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

This EW Count puts us in iv of 3 of a wave c to complete a Wave B by late April.

My target for wave iv is 1257, with wave 3 completing at 1352.

Wave equality between wave a and wave c would complete a little later and a touch higher than the 1506 target.

With US GDP continuing to show strength from consumer spending, it may be another quarter before we see an end of Wave B. Q1 2011 US GDP out third week of April which may present some weakening....Difficult to see SPX turning south which much vigor until the GDP figures look a little more worrying.

Interested to get Andrew's & Rudy's thoughts on the cycle developments over the past month...this count would deliver two more significant SPX higher highs before we head south with a bit more pace in a Wave C.






Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 616
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 03:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I forgot to add....all major US indices have now signalled a 'sell' on the EMA & W%14 basis other than the DOW EMA.

RUT (US Small Caps) signalled back on 19 January reconfirming the 'canary' status.


EMA 3 & 10 Sell Signals:

SPX 28 January
IUX 28 January
DJWS 28 January
DOW yet to signal - 22 points to go
RUT 19 January and 28 January


W%14 Sell Signals

SPX 28 January
IUX 28 January
DJWS 28 January
DOW 28 January
RUT 19 January


Shorted RUT on 19 January, buying into TZA....


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 523
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 04:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Regarding the real GDP figures and market falls - it should be noted that the US market peaked in October 2007 yet (as per your chart), GDP didn't start to fall until 3rd quarter figures in 2008 - markets are forward looking so they don't, in my opinion, wait for confirmation of lower numbers before falling.

Conversly, the markets bottomed in March/April 2009 yet real GDP didn't bottom until the 2nd quarter of 2009.

Interested to hear what you think

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 617
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 05:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For those that may be following US Small Caps (RUT), here is my EW count.

I have RUT in a wave c of a wave iv of 3 heading north. Target for wave iv is 761 on wave equality, which sits evenly between the 38% & 50% fibs of wave iii of v of 3.

The 2007 RUT tops are now not that far away!! Wave 3 may have a crack, so wave 5 may even push through - hard to believe we maybe back at those levels??

If wave 3 of 5 has completed (although the 5 wave pattern looks less obvious), the final push up to the 845/855 levels may conclude matters.

US GDP levels are back at 2007 quantums, and so is RUT - interesting!





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 618
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 06:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi MM,

Here is the GDP (Personal Consumption Spending) printout for the past two years:

Q1/2008 -0.7% (-0.8%)
Q2/2008 +0.6% (+0.1%)
Q3/2008 -4.0% (-3.5%)
Q4/2008 -6.8% (-3.3%)
Q1/2009 -4.9% (-0.5%)
Q2/2009 -0.7% (-1.6%)
Q3/2009 +1.6% (+2.0%)
Q4/2009 +5.0% (+0.9%)
Q1/2010 +3.7% (+1.9%)
Q2/2010 +1.7% (+2.2%)
Q3/2010 +2.6% (+2.4%)
Q4/2010 +3.2% (+4.4%)

Advanced US GDP figures are released in the third to fourth week after the quarter ends

From the attached graph it seems to me that SPX followed the general GDP trend fairly well.

During 2007 US GDP was trending normal, the market rose.

The Q1/2008 figures in April 2008, begun a massive collapse. GDP went negative and so did Personal Consumption Spending (PCS)

The Q2/2008 figures gave a brief moment of hope, SPX climbed….

Q3 & Q4/2008 confirmed the nightmare, and SPX plummeted.

Q1 2009 improved figures, gave SPX hope once again and the market climbed after the announcement in April 2009. The March 2009 low was in.

Q2, Q3, Q4/2009 rapidly improved, and SPX followed.

The decline in Q1/2010 GDP released in late April 2010 caused SPX to correct sharply down. This was the most telling US GDP/SPX movement. In the third week of April 2010, Q1 2010 figures were announced showing a significant pullback in GDP from 5.0% to 3.7%. A day latter on 26 April 2010 SPX commenced a 20% pullback.

Q2/2010 GDP released in late July, set SPX back to the 1040 level….news filtered through by end of August that Q3 was looking a lot better (but many did not believe it)….but by late October Q3 figures confirmed the same, and SPX rallied hard. The US Real GDP figures were rising (see chart) through out this period, so this gave weight to the SPX rally.


To my mind SPX has followed the general US GDP trend – not totally exactly, but within margin.

Personal Consumption Spending has been steadily climbing for 18 months and SPX has put on 50%. Q4/2010 was an exceptionally good quarter, but will it last?




Here is the $Billion GDP Chart:








Here is the SPX chart, with announcement dates and GDP figures:







There were a two 'buy' GDP signals: April 2009 - GDP improving from -6% to -4.9%, and the improving GDP outlook from August 2010. Substantial rallies followed.

There were two 'sell' GDP signals: April 2007 and April 2009, with declining GDP announcements. Substantial corrections followed.

Currently we are still on a medium term (quarterly) bullish outlook.



However, much of this GDP growth is from Uncle Ben - $1 trillion annually - so at some point things will implode. The US Consumer is spending money they haven't earned....but for now the US markets are responding to a brighter future, GDP increasing quarter on quarter, and Personal Consumption Spending (PCS) going through the roof. Just what Uncle Ben wanted. Uncle Ben is planning to pump QE2 (and QE3, 4 & 5)....and the markets will keep loving it...until of course the wheels fall off!

When GDP and PCS reverses - long 'the shorts'! Third week in April is the next date - Q1 2011....


My EW Counts in earlier posts both have a rally termination in the third week of April 2011 - fits a 4 year cycle pretty well too!





Bill


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 619
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 06:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Correction:

"There were two 'sell' GDP signals: April 2007 and April 2010 (not 2009), with declining GDP announcements. Substantial corrections followed."


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 620
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 07:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi MM,

I forgot to add:

In 2007 Personal Consumption Expenditure began to fall, from 2.4% in Q1 down to half that increase later in the year.

By the Q3 announcements in October 2007 (the market top), things looked less certain.

Early in January 2008 key Economic Indicators were suggesting that Q1 2008 US GDP figures might be negative.

In April 2008, US GDP Q1/2008 confirmed the Economic Indicators falling from Q4/2007 @ 2.9% to Q1/2008 @ -0.7%.

SPX top in late October 2007 came at a time when PCE was beginning to fall. PCE was 2.4% earlier in Q1, but in Q3/2007 PCE was at 1.7%; Q4/2007 1.4%; Q1/2008 -0.8%.

The market perhaps predicted the GDP Q1 fall through a declining PCE figure in late October 2007.

It is not flawless, but it helps me to give some confidence to short term market direction - the higher probability is that there may be further upside, at least for another quarter. US GDP & PCE are both rising - until those reverse, or leading Economic Indicators reverse that support those numbers, I feel there is some 'upside' left in SPX.

I am currently 'shorting' this correction, but expect a final rally to April...and I'll 'long' that too....

bill


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 524
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2011 - 09:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Thanks for that mate - appreciate the time and effort you put into those posts.

I'm with you - leg down (which has started) then final leg up possibly till May/June though I feel

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4491
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, February 02, 2011 - 03:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Am currently looking after my 92 year old Mum who is very fragile. We've been away and hence I haven't had access to a computer but may get some time later this week. With a bit of luck I'll still be able to produce my weekend market wrap but things won't be back to normal for that 2 week period.

The bottom line is that at this stage I still expect a decline and a final rally that will probably peak in the first half of this year.

I did warn in my market wrap that the last sharp decline might turn into a head fake but I can't see us avoiding a fairly significant drop (say 10%) in the very near future before the commencement of the final rally leg. I had suggested a turn zone of between 1300 and 1313 for the current rally leg and I haven't changed my mind about that at this point in time.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 622
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, February 02, 2011 - 05:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

My Dad's 92 as well - good luck with your mum.

My current thoughts are that we are still completing the 5th wave of 3 of 3 of B with a target at c.1315.

4 of 3 will take us back to the mid 1250's (38% fib) or >1275 (if we fall into the 4th wave range), before pushing north again for a 5 of 3 with a target of c.1350.

We have had 5 waves off the 1010 low, but I feel we are looking at a 9 waver that might reach to the 2007 highs (I know you are not that convinced!)...RUT is not far short of the 2007 levels right now, so we will see. FA indicators still looking 'over bought' with GDP & Personal Expenditure going gangbusters....US 'Consumer Confidence' booming from 52% to 61% in January... it will end in tears, but for now things still will march north I sense!


Many pundits are calling the top of Wave B in the next few days, as the 5 waves are completing and many indicators are in 'overbought' territory.

I am shorting the next correction south just in case, but I expect the trip south may stop anytime between 1275 and 1250...

Cautious stops to follow...I plan to swing trade each leg as I am mindful that Wave C (when it gets underway) may be fearsome....






Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4493
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, February 06, 2011 - 11:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Further to an earlier request from you for my view of the possible EW count for the S&P500 at this stage of proceedings. Now whilst a bullish count is possible I still personally believe that the GFC is far from over hence will focus on the more negative counts as I see them. Note that the completed GFC will have completed a wave 4 at a higher level.

At this stage I believe that we are still in the process of forming Primary wave Circle B. We have completed Intermediate waves (A) and (B) and currently in the process of forming Intermediate wave (C).

Intermediate wave (C) is a 5 wave impulse pattern and I believe that we are in the final stages of the completing Minute wave v of Minor wave 3. Our next retrace of any significance will be Minor wave 4.

Once complete I believe we will have a final rally to complete the rally that started in March 2009. At this stage I have the top forming possibly sometime in April.





Once we complete Primary wave Circle B, we will commence forming Primary wave Circle C. Now depending on the severity of the next phase of the GFC, we will form either a Triangle pattern or in the worst case a Zigzag. The latter would take out the March 2009 low whereas the former would remain above that level.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
skyhawk
Member
Username: skyhawk

Post Number: 109
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, February 06, 2011 - 03:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

Since the middle of last year I have
been hinting  that this rally will persist into either Feb 2011 OR 13-15th June 2011.
The only downside to this stance has
been the difficulty in picking the intermediate term turns as the market
has decided to blow off

As it now turns out, the high in Feb should be an intermediate term decline  lasting possibly one month, just before the last leg.

Now IF the market hangs on till 13-15th June, that will bring the best trade of the year following that...


Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 626
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, February 06, 2011 - 03:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Guys,

Highly probable that we are in Minute wave v of Minor wave 3 as you suggest Rudy, however I feel we maybe still in Minute wave iii of Minor wave 3.

With the FA continuing to strengthen, US GDP & Unemployment both with 'good news' print outs, and Uncle Ben continuing to print money until June, I feel the US markets will flourish until some more pessimistic numbers emerge....I feel that a wave 4 of 5 will not eventuate until at least late April when Q1 2011 are announced with a pullback to the 1315 zone.

A final push up to 1500-1550, perhaps by mid June? This only allows for a 6 week wave 4 & 5 period, which may be a little tight.

Interestingly, PUG has targets (albeit at a different longer term count) at:

wave iii of 3: 1363 pivot by mid-to-late February

wave iv of 3: 1315 pivot by mid-March

wave v of 3: 1440 pivot by mid-to-late May


Andrew you suggested "Now IF the market hangs on till 13-15th June, that will bring the best trade of the year following that"..... I assume you mean I sizeable 'short' for Rudy's Wave C?

cheers

bill


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 525
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, February 07, 2011 - 11:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

Does anyone have any info on what the dilution effect over the past 2-3 years has had on stock market prices? What I am looking for is where the Dow/S&P would be IF the dilution of stocks hadn't occured over this period. I'm guessing that we would be very close to the highs achieved in 2007 or possibly beyond.

If anyone can point me in the right direction of where to get this data it would be much appreciated.

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 270
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, February 07, 2011 - 02:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Market Mad:

Not really sure where you're going with the dilution idea, so just a shot in the dark here. You could search the net for SPX priced in gold, which would give you a pretty good idea of how badly we've been flogged in the recent few years.

I'm including two charts, one priced in gold, one priced in dollars.

I know that you're more interested in the current 3-4years, but these charts will give you a feel for the jiggery pokery. And I'm confident that your search will uncover some papers written by some very qualified analysts.







_____ n a m a s t e

This post is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4496
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, February 07, 2011 - 02:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Could you elaborate on what you mean by the dilution effect please? I'm not sure what you mean.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 526
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, February 07, 2011 - 03:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

What I am getting at (sorry) is that since 2007 there has been a massive amount of additional stock fed into the market by way of rights issues etc for companies to raise capital which has in turn led to more shares in the market. I.e - ANZ (and most other banks) did huge capital raisings by rights issues and by hybrid issues. This had the effect of (rights issues) increasing the number of shares on the market and yet their share prices have increased by a large perecentage over that time (maybe not Australian banks but certainly US banks that still exist). Therefore the market capitalisation of those stocks has risen much more than it would appear. More shares, increased share price, increased market cap. Therefore, IF these issues hadn't taken place and you had the same number of shares on issue as before and the market caps were the same today, where would our stock market be at? I'm guessing the easiest way to do this would be to get the market capitalisation of an index 3 years ago and compare it to the market capitalisation of the same index today but that comes with its own problems - companies that no longer exist, IPOs during that time etc etc.

You get where I am coming from? I'm just thinking that all of this liquidity that has been injected, along with increases in the number of shares on issue for a large number of companies actually places markets at higher market caps than before the GFC. Maybe I'm wrong but it's something thats been playing on my mind for a while!!!!

Cheers guys - I hope this makes sense
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4497
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, February 07, 2011 - 03:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Thanks for that explanation. I know what you mean but unfortunately don't know the answer to your question. Perhaps Pete may have an idea about the subject.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
p3t3
Member
Username: p3t3

Post Number: 327
Registered: 04-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, February 07, 2011 - 06:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Monday, February 07, 2011 - 04:49 pm:

Perhaps Pete may have an idea about the subject.


For individual stocks the number of shares on issue is available from the annual report of the appropriate year. Historic market prices are available from IC.

Maybe there's a Fundamental Analysis service that tracks Market Cap (such as Stock Doctor) but I'm not a subscriber to one. And the big Brokers probably do it for the stocks they follow....though going through it company by company looks like a lot of effort for just a little perspective.

all I can think of for now

best
p3t3


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 527
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, February 08, 2011 - 09:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks guys

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 628
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, February 09, 2011 - 09:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Still a few more swiggles to go on SPX before we reach a turning point I feel - perhaps by the end of the trading week or early next. Seems to fit your cycle work bang on Rudy!

The likely completion of 5 waves off the 1010 low in the coming days are getting a lot of bears excited, but I sense we are in a 9 waver. I'm planning to short the retrace just in case I'm wrong.

I am expecting a -5% retracement from the 1340 area back to 1275 for the sixth wave by end of Feb then a +13% run to 1440 for the completion of 3 of 5, completing the seventh of nine by April.







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 636
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, February 11, 2011 - 08:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting to note this EW count that goes back to 1929 as the end of wave 1 and calls the 2000 peak the top of iii of 3. The top of iii of 3 normally is the strongest part of the wave structure, and at the top of iii of 3 normally has the RSI making the peak extreme at this point of time. This adds some weight to the count.

The end result is similar to your EW count Rudy in outcome, but from a different stand point.

The mid point trendline has acted as as major turning point at 'a' as well as recently as April 10. It has acted as a support/resistance barrier going back many years.

We are at the mid point trendline once again, so it will be interesting to see whether SPX retreats, or perhaps tests the trendline in the coming months with another two attempts?






Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 280
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, February 11, 2011 - 10:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






_____ n a m a s t e

This post is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 281
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, February 11, 2011 - 10:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






_____ n a m a s t e

This post is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
billt
Member
Username: billt

Post Number: 638
Registered: 02-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, February 11, 2011 - 05:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal,


It shows that these Secular Bear stages do run and run. As you also point out the long tern trend remains intake for now....









Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ehmu
Member
Username: ehmu

Post Number: 282
Registered: 08-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, February 12, 2011 - 02:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Thank you for the long term charts. They tend to bring "mortality" in to the equation (lol). Very nice multi-facet explanations, makes for easier understanding on my part.

I expect that when this secular bear has run its course that we will be in for another bull run that will make its way to the 5 not shown on your chart. Until then I expect to stay limber with mostly short term trading.

I will have to leave the break of the long term up trend for my genetic offspring to worry about, if worrying is still fashionable by then.

all the best
Hal


_____ n a m a s t e

This post is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

 
Other Threads  
Last PosterPostsPagesLast Post
Astrology and Stock Markets ehmu278 18-Aug-11  06:00 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through May 23, 2011gdd350 23-May-11  10:06 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through May 09, 2011gdd350 09-May-11  12:34 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through April 22, 2011ehmu50 22-Apr-11  10:58 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 28, 2011rdumas50 28-Mar-11  10:44 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 19, 2011ivor50 19-Mar-11  11:19 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 16, 2011billt50 16-Mar-11  06:42 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 04, 2011billt50 04-Mar-11  08:01 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through February 24, 2011billt50 24-Feb-11  02:21 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through January 03, 2011rdumas50 03-Jan-11  02:05 pm
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 17, 2010ehmu50 17-Dec-10  10:44 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 08, 2010rdumas50 08-Dec-10  06:45 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through December 02, 2010skyhawk50 02-Dec-10  09:49 am
Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through November 29, 2010ehmu50 29-Nov-10  03:36 am

Threads by Last Post Time:

First Previous 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 Next Last

Administration Administration   Log Out Log Out    

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»