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FIXED AND DYNAMIC TIME CYCLE ANALYSIS

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » FIXED AND DYNAMIC TIME CYCLE ANALYSIS

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rdumas
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 07:41 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

Knowing that Andrew does have to attend to a full time job as well as look after a family with children it is obvious that he would not be time rich. For this reason I have taken the liberty of opening up this new thread dedicated to Fixed and Dynamic Time Cycle Analysis Methodologies.

I'll start off the thread with some Conti Cycles for the XJO that have been in play in recent times. Unfortunately because of the size of the chart, I have had to embed the chart in a spreadsheet.


It can be seen from the chart that the market low that I had suggested on the 25th February was a false alarm and it actually fell on the 2nd March. Note that this is still within the tolerance band of +/- 3 trading days hence the 19 day cycle remains valid.

We can also see that a larger Conti cycle also remain valid, namely the 36 and 65 day Conti cycles. When we project these three Conti cycles ahead we can see that we have target dates for interim market highs on the 16th March, the 8th April and the 18th May.

In previous Market Wraps I have suggested a high of some significance occurring from mid March to early April. These Conti cycles appear to agree with those earlier predictions.

application/vnd.ms-excel
xjo conti cycles.xls (277.0 k)



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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hi Rudy/Andrew

Thanks for setting this up.

It is interesting to look at the various cycle charts that abound at the moment regarding the 'shiny stuff'.

$GOLD

The latest ITCL in late Jan has followed by a strong move higher. It would appear that a long term breakout is now possible, with additional gains during the next 2 to 3 months. Interested to get Andrew's thoughts?


I am playing AGQ (Double Silver) which has bounced 70% in 5 weeks.








It might be useful to maintain a 'story line' on XJO, SPX, Gold & Silver in the coming period?

bill







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rdumas
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 12:23 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I'm a bit stretched for time so will just post this ETF GOLD Conti chart showing some of the cycles in play at the moment.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 12:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



High Guys...

Really glad a sub-thread has been 'resurrected' for "Cycle Analysis" for many reasons...none better than may be 'jolt' Colin into raising the request up the "List of Things To do" for this to included in the I.C. Tools/Indicator section.

....and, of course, to take 'pressure' off the other sub- threads of H.H. of Fame Topic Thread.

....also looking forward to getting my teeth into Andrew's new Cycles study(in a +ve way of course.

....also to locate and view Rudy's Conti charts more easierly....the latest spreadsheet chart Rudy posted above I have reduce to I.C. capable restraints to be viewed here.







Should be an interesting 'sub'thread'!

Dolphin

P.S. I guess Rudy you were right...it is better to 'open' up your speedsheet file...my reduction is a little hard to read...well for these aging eyes it is!

(Message edited by gdd3 on March 04, 2011)


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

Thanks for doing that. Time is a bit of a scarce commodity this week.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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XXJ Conti Cycles

In my recent market wrap I suggested that the laggard sector in the overall market was the XXJ. I would anticipate that until that sector joins the party, the XJO will have difficulty making rapid progress.

For that reason I ran a Conti cycle analysis on that sector and discovered that the next likely bottom for this sector will be Tuesday the 8th March.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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XMJ Conti Cycles


Following is a chart for our XMJ sector showing the Conti cycles that have been in play in recent times. It suggests that we may get tops on the 11th March and the 1st April.

You may recall that in my Market Wraps I have been suggesting for weeks now that we may get a market top from mid March to Early April. Now I'm not sure what to make of the suggested bottom on the 18th March after a top on the 11th March. It appears to suggest that we may get a decline of a week which would not suggest that it would be a small pull back.

I have suggested for some time that we could get a market top sometime in the period from mid March to early April. Could it be that the top will occur a little earlier than I anticipated? I am not sure.

One scenario could be that we get a significant top on the 11th March and then move into a wave 1 which bottoms on the 18th March and then forms a wave 2 which tops on the 1st April.

Another scenario could be that we get an interim top on the 11th March and a more significant top on the 1st April. In this scenario the low on the 18th March could be an insignificant low amongst several lows between the 11th March and the 1st April. The other is that the 18th March low cycle could just disappear as Conti cycles tend to do.

Perhaps there may be some readers that have a view on possibilities. It is certainly a little unclear to me at this time.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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XJO Conti Cycles


In an attempt to work out the puzzle that I played with in the XMJ post I have produced the updated version of the previous XJO Conti chart showing potential future dates for tops and bottoms. The potential Conti tops are shown in Green and the potential Conti bottoms are shown in Red.

I have made a minor change to one of the 'top' dates previously posted. This relates to the 20 day cycle topping on the 17th March. Previously I had shown this as a 19 day cycle topping on the 16th March. I also changed the preceding bottoming cycle from a 19 day cycle to a 22 day cycle as it more appropriately picked the lower bottom of the two dates. This 22 day bottoming cycle was still within the +/- 3 day accuracy of the prior 20 day topping cycle. In view of the change to that bottoming cycle I felt that it was more accurate to change the next topping cycle from a 19 day to a 20 day cycle. It's a very complicated verbal explanation to what was a very simple change. A comparison of this chart to the previous one should clarify the above explanation.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Hi Rudy


Here is my stab!

17 March: iii of 5, attempts to break 5000
1 April: iv of 5
8 April: 3 of 5

21 April (or alternatively 2 June): 4 of 5


18 May: iii of 5 (or alternatively b of 4)






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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Good effort mate. I can't see a better one at this stage.

Unfortunately, if we get a drop of more than 18.5 points today it will mean that a new low was made which would invalidate the 22 and 36 day cycles. THe only valid cycle left from the original group would be the 66 day cycle. Note that the preceding topping cycle had changed from a 64 day to a 70 day cycle so it is also possible that the 70 day cycle also applies to the bottoming cycle. We can only wait to see what transpires.

This is the problem with the Conti cycles. They out of no where and disappear just as quickly. My understanding of this phenomenon is that the market is comprised of hundreds if not thousands of cycles all compounding at any one time period into these short term Conti cycles. As these hundreds of cycles have different amplitudes and frequencies it is obvious that they do not remain in synch and hence the rapid appearance and disappearance of these short term Conti cycles.

They are only useful for very small periods of time. It is only the stronger cycles like the 4 year cycle that maintains some sort of consistency in their appearance because of their size and strength. They just overpower the smaller cycles to some degree.

But as we can see the 4 year cycle is not a pure sine wave due to the influence of those other cycles. Otherwise having formed a top in November 2007 we would have expected a bottom in November 2009. Instead we got one in March 2009. Equally so having achieved a bottom in March 2009 we would expect a pure sine wave 4 year cycle to form a top in March 2011.

If the market continues to tank then it will become obvious that the 4 year cycle actually did top out on the 17th February. The few cycles people that I've read don't believe that the top is in yet. I hope they're right as I am long in the market at present.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Hi guys,

Have not had much time to post in the past week but thought I might squeeze these a chart in out of interest.

The first one shows multiple fib time analysis pointing to an 18th-21st March low for the XAO. The 19th and 20th are the weekend.
Second a full moon March 19th, and ofcourse the ides of March phenomenon on the 21st March

application/vnd.ms-excel
xao fibonacci time relationship.xls (78.3 k)



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billt
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Thanks for that Andrew,


Playing about with a Cycle idea on Silver...it appears a c.18 day cycle is repeating itself, any thoughts guys?





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skyhawk
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Hi guys,

not had much time to post, but it appears we could be coming into a low the next few days
application/vnd.ms-excel
xjo 8hr cycles.xls (346.6 k)



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rdumas
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Thanks Andrew. I love it when your chart shows that the index has gone into the +3 std deviation range. Never a better sign showing that the peak (or bottom) has almost been reached.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Hi guys,

Just a short term cycles update for the SPX. This chart was plotted last night when the SPX hit it’s low point.

What it shows is that the SPX has reached a level relative to the pink nominal trend line ( 3rd lower std deviation) whereby it has <1% probability of maintaining without a reversion back to the pink nominal line level or greater first. That level is 1290-1313.

The 3 cycles I have extracted based on 8hr chart closes give us the 22 bar and 44Bar cycles close to bottoming relative to earlier cycles and the 86 bar cycle having now crossed below the centreline

Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx_8hr_cycles analysis_160311.xls (350.2 k)



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rdumas
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Thanks Andrew. Very useful information.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Hi guys,

This is an interesting Cycles this guy has discovered in the is Safehaven Article!!

http://www.safehaven.com/article/20290/projecting-the-may-june-top-part-1


He is calling for a May 24 Approx top int he SPX if this cycle holds. I have the following critical dates based on my own cycles work: 1-2 June and 13th-15th June. Will get a better understanding as we approach May..

Cheers




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rdumas
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XJO Conti Cycles

I'm not sure how many of these Conti cycles will bear fruit but it's worth keeping an eye on them anyway. If it is correct then the 14 day cycle should top out today.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Just thought I would update the short term Dynamic Cycles for the XAO and SPX. Both these indices are coming into a high between now and Wednesday morning. As can be seen from the cycles charts attached, there is still room for a little more upside come next week. The Aussie chart is that of the CFD and is based on the futures price. As such it already has the opening on the XAO "factored in". I estimate the XAO will move up another 20-30 odd points on top of what it opens on Monday to complete this leg up.

At this stage looking for Tuesday afternoon to complete this leg up, and then subwave c of major wave 4 to commence which if I am correct about the wave structure should see a decline to about 21st April or 13 traded days


Cheers

application/vnd.ms-excel
cycles analysis_xao 8hr bars_020411.xls (346.1 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
cycles analysis_spx 8hr bars_020411.xls (351.2 k)



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skyhawk
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A quick dynamic cycles update. The turn we were expecting on Tuesday rather than being a turn down has resolved into a distribution pattern, which looks like will precede the last thrust up for this leg.

Short term cycles for the SPX suggest another push up to approximately 1350 before we see this reversal.

SPX longer terms cycles show the 1 year cycle topping, the 2 year cycle approaching a top (but still room for upside) and the 4 year cycle still rising which scope for the index to move well above 1400 before a major top is in.


Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
aussie200 cfd short term cycles analysis_080411.xls (348.2 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx cfd short term cycles analysis_080411.xls (351.2 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx monthly cycles analysis_080411.xls (292.9 k)



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rdumas
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Hi Andrew,

In my last week's Market Wrap I fell for a bit of a trap. The first chart below is the snapshot of the XJO taken last week showing the 3 std deviation envelopes. When I wrote the MW I was anticipating the market would go up on Monday's open and therefore exceed the 3rd standard deviation band thus putting it in an overbought situation.



The chart below is a similar snapshot of the XJO taken from your post today. What is noticable is that the boundaries have changed.




It is only since reading the following information that I came understand that the standard deviation boundaries will change as new price action changes. I had incorrectly assumed that the boundaries wouldn't change all that much. Your chart demonstrated to me just how much they do change.


In order to understand the mechanism I found the following website :

http://www.pandacash.com/technical-analysis/standard-deviation/

Following is an extract from that website:

Usage of Standard Deviation in Stock and Share Technical Analysis

When used in stock and share graphs, standard deviation bands are plotted above and below the simple moving average of the same period as the standard deviation period. For example, when plotting 100 day standard deviation bands, firstly the 100 day simple moving average is calculated and plotted. Then, having calculated the 100 day standard deviation, the value of the standard deviation is added to the value of the moving average, and plotted as today's point for the top Standard Deviation band. Similarly, for the bottom band the standard deviation value is deducted from the moving average and plotted as the point for the bottom band.

In many cases, instead of the usage of just a single standard deviation, multiples of the standard deviation are used as the top and bottom band lines. There is good mathematical logic behind this. Empirical mathematical rules state that for a Normal Distribution, 67% of the data in a normally distributed dataset is contained within one standard deviation of the average. 95.4 percent of the data is contained within 2 multiples of the standard deviation away from the average, and 99.7 percent of the data falls within 3 standard deviations. Whilst it is arguable whether a set of stock prices forms a true Normal Distribution, the basic idea of using standard deviations to indicate extremes of high and low points is considered among analysts to be a useful practice.

Standard Deviation bands may be based on a moving average of any period - one the most common periods used is a 20 day moving average, with two standard deviation bands as a signal line. However, for short term trading, a 10 day moving average with a 1.5 multiple of the standard deviation can be used, or for longer term strategies, a 50-day moving average with a signal line of 2.5 standard deviations may be plotted.

Due to the fact that the moving average, and the Standard Deviation is calculated each day (or hour if hourly data is used), different values for the standard deviation exist each day (or hour). This results in the width between the upper and lower Standard deviation bands varying as time goes by and new calculations are done. Thus, the bands are "self-adjusting", expanding when the volatility over the period under study is high, and contracting when the volatility decreases.

Volatile stocks, shares and other securities are considered to be high-risk and high-reward securities. If your investment strategy leans specifically toward an interest in investing in low risk stocks, you may consider investing in a stock which, over a long term, has a consistently small bandwidth (difference between the top and bottom Standard Deviation bands). Conversely, if you have a higher risk/reward strategy, then stocks which have a consistently wide bandwidth would be the type of investment you may be looking for.

Volatility is also used in option prices, (including "Traded Options" in the UK). A security with a higher volatility will have a higher time value part of the option premium, whereas is volatility is low, the time value of the option premium will be lower. This is because a stock with higher volatility would be expected to exhibit larger price fluctuations. Therefore knowing the security's current and historical bandwidth may help in your decision regarding whether you wish to buy an option at the current option price.

Standard deviations can also be used to identify extreme stock and share values, thus acting as an overbought or oversold indicator. For example, technical analysis practitioners may consider that if a stock price is beyond the top 2 standard deviations band, that stock could well be in overbought territory, as assuming a "Normal Distribution" of stock prices, the stock would be expected to only reach such a level only only 4.6% of the time (because, as mentioned above, 95.4% of the price data should be contained within 2 multiples of the standard deviation assuming a Normal Distribution). An even stronger overbought signal would be if the stock reached beyond 3 multiples of the standard deviation, as this would only be expected to happen only 0.27 per cent of the time.

Similar to most overbought or oversold indicators, Standard Deviations should be considered secondary signals rather than primary identifiers of whether to make a purchase or sale. They shouldn't be used on their own as the basis of a trading decision. This is mainly because sometimes, once a stock has reached the two or three standard deviation band, it may hug the band for some time, rather than bounce back off it. This can happen, for example, in massive buying rallies or selling periods where the actions of investors continue to push the price in one direction beyond expectations. Standard deviations should be thought of as a measure of how extreme and abnormal the current price of a stock or share is in comparison to its recent history. The more extreme a price is away from its average the more likely it is that the price will head toward the average soon. Of course, bear in mind that moving averages, by their name and nature, move themselves - so it can sometimes be that the stock price may remain around the same level, but the moving average could come to meet it rather than the stock price moving to meet the moving average.

Whilst maintaining attention to these cautions, it is believed by market analysts that prices abhor extremes and, over time, return to average levels. If a the price of a security is at or very closely approaching the two or three standard deviation band, it could well indicate an imminent reversal - usage of the MACD or RSI to help your buying or selling decision in conjunction with Standard Deviations is a strategy recommended by some analysts.


The site also provided the following advice on calculating standard deviations:

http://www.pandacash.com/technical-analysis/standard-deviation/calculation.htm


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Long Wave Cycles

Hi Folks,

You may find a read of the following article interesting. It appears to agree that the top of the current cycle should occur around the June period followed by large declines into 2012/2013.


http://www.safehaven.com/article/20555/tracking-the-wall-cycles-in-search-of-the -business-cycle-top-in-2011


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, April 10, 2011 - 11:49 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



latest Update of XJO Conti Cycle Chart


Note that the 33 trading day Conti cycle appears to have come 3 days late. This assumes that we actually did form the top on Friday.




If we did actually start our decline on Friday then the next Conti low should occur around the 20th April.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Possible XJO Pattern in coming period

I have added an interim Conti high between the lows of the 3rd and 18th May. I have had a bit of a play with the Conti cycles and suggested a possible pattern between now and the 6th~13th June which could come into play.

Note that I mention the 13th June date (which is not shown on the Conti chart). There are a number of cycles gurus (including Andrew) who have the 13th June as the top for the March 2009 rally.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Rudy,

Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence model also sees 13 June 2011 as a significant date. He sees it as the bottom of the recent downwards trend in economic confidence. He has been imprisoned by the Feds when he wouldn't work for the CIA after predicting the fall of communism to the day. Now in home detention, his supporters say that he was where he was because his predictions are too accurate. Look him up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

(Message edited by ken on April 10, 2011)


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rdumas
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Thanks Ken,

I have followed his stuff for a couple of years now with varying success in applying his dates to the market turning points.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Hello Ken,

Yes that is correct, and there seems to be other confluence regarding this date using other methods too.
Whilst Armstrongs dates have been remarkably accurate
in the past, what has not been accurate about his approach is whether the
date will mark a high or a low.

As such I only look at the date itself.

The 2nd June is also very significant but it's not an Arnstrong date

Cheers


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rdumas
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XJO Conti Chart

Hi Folks,

I was having a look at the XJO Conti chart and noticed that I had incorrectly date the last 4 dates on the chart. Here is the corrected version.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

The Conti cycle bottom came right on schedule and also coincided with the 3rd Quarter lunar phase date as mentioned in my last Market Wrap.

Now I have nominated the top for the 8th June based on a 39 trading day cycle but it could also be the 6th June based on the previous 37 day cycle.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Your Conti keeps on giving Rudy....it certainly has provided the turning points in time extremely well. They can disappear in a flash...but hopefully they will hold true.

As the EW Count off the recent top looks corrective on many indice, and with US Small Caps breaking a trend line to the north, hopefully SPX & XJO will follow suit for a run north next week. Your Conti seems to give it every hope!

Andrew's 1 & 2 year cycle has turned south so I understand...interested to know if his 4 year has given up the ghost as yet?

Nice to get a 'throw over' on SPX for a 5-[5] which would rocket XJO along nicely.

More modest XJO targets are perhaps the 100 d Ma @ 4875 which may prove to be the pivot, with 50% fib retrace to 11 April high @ 4865.


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Last time I heard from Andrew he said that he anticipated the 4 year cycle to top out sometime between the 2nd and 13th June.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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XXJ Sector Cycles

The cycle operating in the XXJ appear to stand out, in particular those depicted by the larger red cycle period icons. The last two red cycles have lasted a fraction over 2 months so it would appear to be logical that we may be due for a reasonable move up.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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XXJ Conti Cycles

Further to the last post on the XXJ cycles, I thought that it would be worthwhile looking at the Conti cycles for this sector.

Now I notice that there was previously a 32 trading day cycle in play which disappeared of the face of the earth and was replaced by 46 day trading cycle. Just for the fun of it I have added that 32 trading cycle to the chart to see what sort of date that it would fall on. Looks like it came in on that magic 13th June date that has been discussed so often.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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US Small Caps....16/17 day pattern? ...not a pure conti, but....

No need to guess the next pivot date on this pattern....






13th June!


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I note from your chart that there is a mix of top to top, top to bottom and bottom to top fixed term cycles. So the important question I guess is whether the 13th June will be a top or a bottom. You are getting a good opportunity to see that when working with time cycles, inversions can take place that can give you a top where you anticipated a bottom and vice versa. Time cycle analysis is not easy.

The reason for my pervious post on the XXJ Conti cycles is to highlight the point that based on these cycles we can expect to see a rally of some signficance occurring in the near future. You may recall that it has been the banking sector that has been the main drag on the market in times gone past so if there is a bounce in that sector then that is a good sign for the overall market.

(Message edited by rdumas on May 30, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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XMJ Conti Chart

I post the following XMJ Conti chart to point out a number of things about the study of Conti charts. The first is the oft mentioned fact that these Conti cycles are only temporary and can only give you guidance at times for very short periods of time.

You will see from the following chart that there used to be a Conti cycle that had a cycle period of around 65 trading days. For the time being that cycle appears to have disappeared.

At present we could possibly have a 39~41 day cycle in play, a 47 day cycle as well as a lot of smaller time cycles.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Updated XJO Conti Chart


As can be seen the next Conti top should occur between the 8th and 9th June. If the 39 day cycle happens to revert to the previous 37 day cycle then the 6th June also comes into play.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Hey Andrew

Back on 8 April when you last posted the SPX charts you stated:

"SPX longer terms cycles show the 1 year cycle topping, the 2 year cycle approaching a top (but still room for upside) and the 4 year cycle still rising which scope for the index to move well above 1400 before a major top is in."

I understand since then the 1 & 2 year cycle have both rolled over, leaving the 4 year to do likewise.

As we head for your June target, how do your charts look?

I know you have very little time, so a quick post would be great. Rudy's 8/9th June look promising on his Conti for XJO, how is Polly travelling?

I am cheering for a wave 5 'throw over' finish....

Cheers

bill


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rdumas
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Potential Top for SPX on 6th June


Andre Gratian is a technical analyst who I have a lot of respect for. As readers would know one of the Conti dates that I have for a potential top for the XJO is the 6th June.

Andre in his weekend report suggests the same date: Refer to http://www.safehaven.com/article/21158/market-turning-points-weekend-report

In the report he also mentions a potential low on the 13th June. Sound like a familiar date??


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thanks for that link Rudy, interesting work.

The full text reads:

“The 14-15-week top-to-top cycle is ideally due on 6 July. It may be acting as a magnet on prices and causing the current rally. However, we need to keep in mind that it has occasionally inverted in the past.

Martin Armstrong's 8.6-yr economic cycle is due on 13-16 July. There has been enough correlation between the Economic Model and the market's behavior that we should pay attention to that date. The 2007.15 date of his economic cycle accurately marked the top of the XLF, and it led other indices in a severe bear market.”

The Author uses other technical indicators to suggest the precise timing and to assess & consider the inversion risk...


Using the W%14 in a 'forward forecast' way, it is interesting to note that on 6th June (noted by the line as 6 on the W%14) shows a couple of possible strong W%14 targets intersecting for a 'sell' on SPX. The alignment back to mid Nov 10 is a multiple hit...

The period from 13-16 June has a potential top on 16th, but also a possible low on 13th. There are several more alignments on the 13th not shown...so it seems to have the strength on the Williams.


SPX & RUT(the canary) both look to possibly have completed an 'a wave', which leaves a day for a 'b wave' and a further few days for the 'c wave', just in time for the 6th June....and an ED zigzag finish, and a trip to the UBB?

A 6th top and a 13th bottom looks more than feasible from the W%14.








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ken
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Hey Bill, you would be a month late for Martin Armstrong's bottom date. Here it is from the horse's mouth:-

http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/armstrongeconomics-the-nex t-wave-042411-update.pdf


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billt
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Thanks there Ken,

I had my July's & June's mixed up!

June 13th is the 'Armstrong'..."What awaits us on the other side is a change in the overall trend."

This is what the text above should have read:


“The 14-15-week top-to-top cycle is ideally due on 6 June. It may be acting as a magnet on prices and causing the current rally. However, we need to keep in mind that it has occasionally inverted in the past.

Martin Armstrong's 8.6-yr economic cycle is due on 13-16 June. There has been enough correlation between the Economic Model and the market's behavior that we should pay attention to that date. The 2007.15 date of his economic cycle accurately marked the top of the XLF, and it led other indices in a severe bear market.”


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skyhawk
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Hi guys,

I have not had much time to look at markets of late as I have had other things happening at present.

However I did notice that from the July low last year till 13th July this year will be 377 fibonacci calendar days. This potentially could mark some sort of a peak. How much of a peak I am not sure but well worth to keep an eye on


Cheers


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gdd3
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Hi Andrew,

Further to your last post we could even get a perfect "squaring" on the 13th at 1387.91(377pts from low) OR a week later ...55 wks from low coming in @ ~ 1396(55 x7 = 385pts/cds).

Interestingly, Fibo.377(and Fibo fractions of) is also a 'reliable'(?) squaring on our own XJO/XAO for possible swing turning points...but may be a week later?

Thanks for the imput(warning?)





Cheers
Dolphin


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skyhawk
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Hello Dolphin,

Yes that would could well happen!! Thanks so much for the information and sharing the work you have done. Incidentally, I have noticed since the July 1 2010, that we have had reversals on fib calendar days. See attached word document

Cheers
application/msword
spx_cal_fibs.doc (155.6 k)



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rdumas
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XJO 45, 60 and 90 day cycles


Some readers may be interested in the following chart. The start point is the March 2009 low.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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New Moon and Full Moon Cycles

Whilst we know that FMs often give us significant bottoms it is worthwhile noting that the previous significant bottom came a little early. I suspect that a bounce is not far off.









The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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hey Rudy/Andrew

Interested to see how this fits into your 1,2,4 year cycle patterns...?

http://www.safehaven.com/article/22193/coming-in-october-next-major-cycle-low

It would seem to fit the time frame for the completion of the first wave south (either of three or five DOWN)....

bill

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