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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

The Elisabeth Tutorial

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Eagle Eye- EYEjaded13-Mar-11  11:52 am
         

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jaded
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I'm setting up this thread to give some Guidance to forum members on the Momentum System of stock picking.
Note it's a Tutorial NOT a lecture.
It's format is to initiate Discussion,Group Analysis and bring to the attention of all the attributes and pit falls in Trading Momentum shares.

Momentum shares by their very nature are NOT Blue Chips because I define Momentum as putting on say 15% in a week even a Day.A share that does even 10% NOT on News has some market interest,Momentum so

First Criteria in Watchlist/Scan Result Picking is-
Any known reason WHY? it's Rising?

If news? discern whether it's done it's dash ie a Massive Rise on Heavy Volume and probably will retrace so decision-
Watchlist it [Don't Buy],calculate Retrace points and...well Watch It!!

Do not 'dream' it'll go back to the starting gate,price of last week and then you might buy it.
If it does do that?It's lost Momentum,it's a Fizzer and you wouldn't want to buy the bleeding thing.

One does not want to think Bottom Picking re Momentum Shares.
One has to identify GOERS [by scan] and Buy a Ticket for the possible,anticipated ride.

Now if it has NOT gone up on News? Well that's a "good" thing.
It could mean Big Accumulation,people prepared to "Wipe the Ask" Market Depth because 'they' are 'in d'know' ie insiders.
It could also mean that the share has been picked by the Tip Sheets and the subscribers have merely 'reacted' a la Pavlov.Such action is usually very short lived.The share absorbs these Mug Pilgrims and often retraces to even lower than it started at.

A way to tell the difference? One goes back over the chart,find days preceeding past really large Rises on News and observe,read if it appears this particular share is a Leaker ie news is known by even the tea lady and the share is bought heavily,significantly BEFORE Announcements.

It's convoluted.There are No Strict Rules.There are only Points that one should consider and evaluate,weigh up before you Put Your Money Down.
For example,a share may have a history of leaking and Joe and Jill Blow and their blessed dog are aware of it.

Then d'Tricksters artifically pump set up a run,boost the share price,suck in all d'Too Smart Joes and Jills,dump and leave d'pilgrims to either No News or Bad News.

So if a No News Run is not followed up by further rises like say the rising 2/3 candles? or If NO News Issues?well,start getting CONcerned.

I hope to be able to bring Live2Air examples drawn from "our" scans to illustrate these points.As they happen NOT from hindsight.

later


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Scans- I try to set up the most simple of Scans.
Minimum number of criteria the better.
For example My Momentum Scan is
Materials Sector Shares,
priced between 15 cents and $1
that have done X% minimum in a day or 5 days.

Material Sector shares because this Sector contains the most Goers/Momentum shares on our Market.

Priced between 15cents and $1 because this price range gives one 'natural' leverage, I can buy at least 10,000 shares in this price range[at least 20,000 if under say 40 cents] This price range suits my personal Money Management/Sizing requirements.
I do not favour under 15 cent shares especially under 10 centers because they rarely have any fundamental basis as to Why they're going up other than Hype.Besides Under 10ers usually have way too many shares out there issued for my taste.
Low shares on Issue is another Leverage,a natural leverage to Momentum.I am well known for disgust at advocates of pilgrims borrowing money to play the sharemarket.[cfd's etc]

There are 'natural' ways to get Leverage without adding in the complications of having to meet interest pays and margin calls.
There are natural ways and means to minimise Risk for Maximised Gains that are much better than selling d'Soul to some Broker to get to Mammon!

Percentage Rise Range-Depends on when you're doing the scan.
After a really bad general ASX day,finding a list of what went against the trend by going up say 5% Minimum gives you some 'likely' candidates.
Ditto a Bad Week.
Realise you're only setting the MINIMUM the Maximum is open ended.The scan will pick the 20/50/100 percent goers up to.

These three criteria act to 'narrow' the Scan Results.I don't want to have to check out 100's of candidates.Even 50 or so,is a bit of a chore so I 'indulge' in various prejudices to cull d'candidates
eg Gold is OUT.I just do NOT even open a Gold Miners Chart.

Saves me a lot of time currently having this approach to a Momentum scan and I consider saves me a lot of money in getting onto to duds and fizzers into stop loss territory.
I just don't want to KNOW about the machinations of blessed Gold Shares.

anyhow,back to today's market in the shares I do hold.

til later.







" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 02:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



in d'Spirit of Ody in Daily Bread
I declare my current Momentum Holdings
10,000 HOR from 49.5 cents
20,000 KDR " 38cents
10,000 RAD " 37cents

I have threads on all of these in Short Term so any further comment on them by me or others will be directed there.
I merely bring them up here to show
a]I'm not talking Large Money needing to be had in order to get amongst Momentum shares
b] The need to adopt a plan/approach that does not require you to Buy a Dozen shares from a Scan or buy or even do a Weekly Scan "religiously".
I found two these at least a month ago in my Scan.Subsequently I watchlisted one [HOR],traded[bought,sold,bought] one [RAD] and only last saturday did another scan and came up with KDR [this scan was initiated because I'd determined to sell CMC so wanted a replacement]

This is just basic Trading 101 for those of us who aren't in it for "Lifestyle" ie moving around short term say a hundred grand$$ or more so as to be "popular" down d'Barbque or in a Vodka Bar!!

anyhow,off for d'Close.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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peterloh
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 03:36 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sen Sen Jaded


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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breaker_1
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Good on ya jaded my style of trading


When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





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sway
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Well done Jaded. Just getting around to reading your new thread. Keep it up, please.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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jaded
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Momentum Power of a share in a Hot Sector.

Potash is one of the Top Materials at the moment.Has been for a few years now.It's all to do with this established Major field in Nth Africa being subject to International Attention by the likes of Bob Geldof.See d'Do Gooders think the native population are being exploited by this country's Dictatorship for the benefit of Multi Nationals etc etc.
Get the picture?This major source could go "OFF LINE" due to a Revolution that could go on for years.

Anyhow,this and the general world need to increase Food Production and one needs fertiliser to do this has made Fertiliser HOT

and this weeks scan kicks up how d'Boys are "In To It"
gmm_ax03mar10_to_18mar11.png
This is Deep Drilling for Potash in blessed Mongolia!!
They've just Started drilling.No Results just started and yet Off GMM goes.
Please note that the 13D Average Volume[1.7 mil] has been skewed because of Thur/Fri Volume.These 2 have put 1.5 mil odd into the Average ie GMM was very thinly traded,sometimes not at all until they made the Mongolia Connection!!

Further Hype/Background to GMM is a new float FMJ.This mob is Potash in Kazakhstan which I presume is within spitting distance of Mongolia.FMJ has only 22.9 mil shares IPO'd 3 months ago at 50 cents.
This is it's chart from it's very first day.
fmj_ax15dec10_to_08mar11.png

Now that's Capital Gain,A Multi Bagger [100%=a bag] a Gee I coulda bought a Lambogini if only I'd bought some early.

This latter thought encourages a Pilgrim into Nearology.
GMM is on same thing in same area[woop woop] and it's only 20 cents maybe it'll do $2 buck$$ d'same as FMJ Buy Buy Buy.

Now Nearology is a very valid method for researching a watchlist and making decisions to buy but I think it's nearology to Infrastructure that's most important.

and picking,concentrating on Hot Sector shares is definite requirement for the Momentum Style/Ploys.

These 2 GMM[40mil] and FMJ[22.9mil] show the Leverage Power in Not Many Shares Registered or in a Free Float.

FMJ shows the potentials in New Issues and the finding,watchlisting and Researching and Buying of IPO's in say their first 3-6 months,can and is very profitable.

Many won't touch an IPO because they
[a] don't have Volume
[b] Don't have enough Days History for Charting
[c] some journalist or tip sheet hasn't drawn attention

anyhow,in the current market where there aren't dozens of new floats every week I'm "into" new floats say 2/3 months out when Hopefully the Stags/Quick Profit Initial Holders have strayed off d'Scene.

Anyhow New Issues are IN when it comes to Momentum.Don't be frightened of them.Buy them on the Rise.Not at Issue Price and certainly not Below Issue Price.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jimmyswell
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Hi Jaded,
I'm reading your momentum theory with interest and share your view.

How would you read Mesoblast? Noticeable but small increase in volume and a spike in price. Is it a one-off or is more growth coming when the rest of the market takes notice?

Jimmy
m


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elisabeth
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Good arvo Jaded I've risen to your challenge to give you a 10 line comment, but I needed four shares to do that! I've probably gone too much onto the technical for this thread, but that's how I need to marry what's going on to my charts.

Based on your initial posts, these shares have gone up 10-15%+ in a week and I've given brief news and effect or non-effect plus market cap.

I welcome your feedback on any or all.


PNR

Market Cap: $118 million

News: Vol Fri but no news since Feb 12 "issue of shares" and no market sensitive news since Jan

Basis: Jaded Momentum + also came up on my Price/Volume scan

Weekly T/A looks strong, but daily is o’bought – I’ve shown the Slow Stochastic which has seen a price downturn coinciding with peaks back to October, and a failure (pink) line at the beginning of the long rise last September

Inclination is to await retest of break at 44c and see what it looks like then for possible entry, though if the break is due to insider knowledge of impending news, how would you know. I would need to watch for a few hours on Monday and if there is immediate strength in this move, I would not enter as I don’t like to chase shares.

pnr


SRR

Market Cap $80 million

News: Investor pres Mar 2 - no movement yet; big vol Jan/Feb following news

Basis: Investor pres at the Proactive Investors One2One forum “Emerging Stars in Resources” was noted in one of my emails, however this would be an example of historical Jaded Momentum, put on watchlist and look for entry

Long term T/A: Price is very close to historical resistance at 28c though price did reach and reject 29c on one day the week before last. LT charts look like a bit more consolidation is needed

Short term: watchlist

srr

Next two in following post


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elisabeth
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SRZ

Market Cap $24 million

News: News Friday (high grade tin deposits) with big vol/price inc

Basis: Jaded Momentum plus came up on 3 of my scans

Longer term: Looks strong and should take off further during March

Short term: Watchlist

srz


TUC

Market Cap $54 million

News of Rare Earth intersection Feb 28 with resulting vol Mar 1 and 4

Basis: Jaded Momentum

Longer term: Share has been showing some slowing in momentum – resistance at the 55-60c area, blue sky beyond 65c (the high in April 2007, the month TUC launched)

Short term: This is my pick in the comp. Price has broken strongly out of an ascending triangle on good relative volume. T/A Supports a further move up – MACD xup, ADX rising above DI-. There is buyer support in the depth at 40, 40.5 and 41c.

tuc


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jaded
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Please open Individual Threads in Short Term for these,jimmy and elisabeth.It'll help the "Flow",be less distracting.Perhaps be more educational or at least draw comment for you from others.
This ain't a Guru Thread.All the stuff is public domain,lots of people are aware of it,I just wonder why it's not more applied.
One reason I reckon is the use of Indicators that Signal OVER BOUGHT and this scares the pilgrims off.
I work off a Vanilla Chart
Price and Volume,
Identify Horizontal Support Resistance,
See if a Trend Line Vertical 'fits' close to current action,
then do some news research
etc etc

I want the Chart Action up to my failing eyesight standard ie Predominating the screen.
I don't want it all squashed up by 3/4 indicators crowding the base etc.
Gee Wilikers I don't even look much at the Twiggs Indicator.I only put it in for IC Promotion!!!

anyhow,will make comment on indiv shares in Short Term Section.
cheers and thanks for your support.too often such projects start but there's no feedback and you never know if anyones reading it.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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cross over,elisabeth.
I put SRZ up in Peter Loh's Tin Nostalgia VMS short term thread.
I think Peter Loh has a Thread on TUC as well.

To comment specifically on MSB,I'd have to do research,jimmyswell but on a glance and a Blink read of the News-
Yes it's a Viable Bio Tech Blue Chip,it's sold a product to a multi national Celaphon[or something] and this mob Cellie have just under 20% in the Company which is a TakeOver Position.
However I think the cause of the Momentum in this is 'draining',it's in distribution mode i think.
I wouldn't Buy it for Momentum.For Investment,maybe but I'm not looking at Investing only Trading and I don't think there's 20% in a month in this.

who knows but.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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elisabeth
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Hi Jaded, if you have any time to have a look, pls can you give brief comments on my four stocks above as picked last week from the momentum POV - I've just posted in the SRR and TUC threads, and will look for the others and if I can't find a thread will open threads in the Short Term section. Will be appreciated lots!

Interestingly both SRR and TUC came up on momentum 1 day scans again this week. I have two to look at this weekend, MSR and RRE, both from a 5 day scan. Will open threads on those too.


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jaded
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elisabeth,
i prefer longer scans to just 1 day,3/5 my preference.
why?because 3/5 ers can give a High and a retrace pattern already happened.It can give a Signal,A Pattern that can be bought the next day,even on the Open.

a one dayer mostly,usually gives you only another watchlist candidate.
Besides 3/5 days also shows Sustainability[somewhat].

I think one day scans are for Day Traders to do at 10:15 am if they have a suitable programme that scans the Open.Don't think IC's does.

regards

will try and do something on your shares later.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Set up a scan for my preferred Breakouts from the Swamp ie under 10 cent shares.
Now I realise others seem to think that if one is into Momentum [ie fast money] then one should concentrate on d'Under 10ers the True Pennies etc etc blah blah blah.Besides you get to shine in the Comp with a under 10 cent entry.Ya can get a really show off gain and be seen as a Genius!!

Anyhow,I've put down on IC all these lines and words regarding under 10 cent shares over the years but I can't cut and paste and cain't do all these Links etc and...well I'm independent.I don't need to justify myself by Authority Quotes etc.

Anyhow,here's my scan for my preferred Watchlist/Gos that have broken 10 cents in the last 3 days.

3 day Minimum Price Change 20%
closing price >10 cent equal= or <13 cents.

I'm scanning for shares that have gone straight thru the 10-12 cent barrier.

[at 10 cents the Tick becomes .5 5%.In most pennies this sets up Arbitrage=Multi parcel/position Day Trading that often stiffles/destroys a swamp dwellers break out ie it flonces around in the 10-12 range only to eventually exhaust itself and usually plummet back into the swamp]

elisabeth,hopefully as a long time reader and follower of d'JR you follow?

Anyhow the above scan has been devised to identify the Movers who are not subjected to this Arbitrage Effect[FX]

Today it kicked up one single share,fittingly called Eagle Eye [EYE]


now that's kismet or karma or what?
I mean the name and it's double/triple Quadruple Meaning.

tomorrow,instead of discussing your individual picks,elisabeth [and other dear readers] I will discuss Method that can be applied to your Picks for Years to Come using d'Eagle Eye as a mere example.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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elisabeth
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Morning Jaded, my “scan” is more like a report which gives me 1, 5, 10, etc up to 60 (I can set the parameters) which is good for checking out growth over time to eliminate or highlight candidates, but clunky in that it’s an Excel dump and I have to go back and forth all the time.

Agree about the benefit of retrace already happened, so will add 3 days to my scan but will keep 1 day for the time being. I do like this scan, Jaded, thank you.

Your price range is interesting. Some years ago someone on the forum posted about the financial benefit of buying under and selling over 10c. Profit takers with this mindset could be holding back the price.

Please don’t take any time over my previous shares – was just closing out.

Look forward to the Eagle Eye discussion – that shadow steers me away...


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jaded
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Yes,I've seen those types of scans down d'BarBque,elisabeth.
A pilgrim puts up the results every weekend but well I find them much too complicated and brain draining.
Too much like hard work sorting them out.
Too many options,factors to cover,research and ponder.

Infomation Overload I reckon that works against KISS.

Elisabeth,narrowing down the candidates,checking their chart [that'll give you your different Time Momentum info/gist] and seeing as one is only playing with $5/10 grand parcels of say $50,000 capital in this 'sector' of Momentum shares?well time and motion,effort for reward is,I reckon,optimised.

Elisabeth,Momentum scanning will do ya head in if one is handicapped by Regret.You'll see and probably reject many shares that subsequently really Rocket after you rejected them.
You'll do all this thinking and theorising on actual picks that then peak and disappoint.

But when you get it right,buy in,it confirms and you regularly get 30% and your stop outs are not losses but break even or say 10%?
well that happens when General Market Conditions are right,you've identified the hot sectors,the factors within that sector that move,give momentum to a share and you get a rosy glow,a purple patch,a green portfolio.

and yes it can happen overnight


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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p3t3
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quote:

well that happens when General Market Conditions are right,you've identified the hot sectors,the factors within that sector that move,give momentum to a share and you get a rosy glow,a purple patch,a green portfolio


For me, this is great stuff from Jaded - the meat and potatoes of trading, whatever the specific methods used :

Read the markets
Read the sectors
Look within "hot" sectors to see what "themes" might be in play
Look for the movers within the sector playing to those themes.

Basic training - something we all need reinforced, pretty much on a daily basis.

Much like sports training :

get the basics right by constant repetition
be physically ready
then trust your instincts in the heat of the play

Those instincts will be informed by the training but will operate much more quickly than you, I or anybody can think.

just my view
p3t3


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jaded
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my scan this weekend will be for New Highs and those who maintained within say 10% of their Year High.

After the carnage/correction such a scan will reveal the stayersa/kinda bullet proof.
For me pure Gold plays will be dismissed.What diversified miners held their 'guts' will be my interest for watchlisting.

I reckon it's not much use scanning up 20% momentum shares this week.Too many are returns from the Panic.I want to find those shares that got no Panic Effect.I assume that these have solid shareholders for a reason and I want to find those rather than mere Trader Flippityjibs!!


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Sunday, March 27, 2011 - 01:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





Wasn't this your comp pick elisabeth,a few weeks ago?

I looked at it when you picked it but didn't watchlist it or look too closely at it.
It was Coal and I've gone cold on coal but I shouldn't have and will now return to checking them out.

But even pure TA and momentum scan would have given this an alert back at 6-8.
Note how the Gap should have been seen as a continuation Alert.
The Gap was after a basing pivot and illustrated a definite comeback after "Panic" week.Nuclear meltdown is Good for Coal and I hope your adherence to Gap Theory that they ALWAYS pretty much close, elisabeth, colouring your method that you are reluctant to buy above a gap is.. well.. challenged.

Good Runs can and do Start with a Gap.A Gap is a positive indicator...sometimes.

Anyhow NRL has found d'good stuff in Coal Grades and have good possibilities to go further and not return to under 10 cent swamp world.

Let's watchlist it?


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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elisabeth
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Sunday, March 27, 2011 - 05:46 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Jaded, yes, I had NRL picked Feb 25 and yes, it was from a momentum scan. Wow, look at it now!

Re gaps, I don't believe most gaps will get filled within the next few days/weeks, though they often do.

We regularly see see breakaway gaps, ie strong break up on big volume. If the move continues, there is often a continuation gap which appears more or less in the middle of a move, with a final exhaustion gap signaling the imminent end of a run. Any and (ideally) all of these legs are tradeable - volume is an integral part of the analysis.

Ah, but then, once the big move is over, it's not unusual to see the stock pull back and fill some or all of the gaps.

Are you still watching EYE - it's coming back to challenge an old (2008) resistance zone at 14-15c. I do wonder how valid resistance is that far back, but the chart is interesting.

(Good to see that KDR is looking very promising again)


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jaded
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Sunday, April 10, 2011 - 09:57 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Elisabeth,
How long 'til you are going to be able to be 'available' for trading more seriously?
I'm trying to hold back from full investing myself at the moment,mainly awaiting rudy's pull back but I'm finding it difficult as opportunities present themselves daily.
So I'm putting my money down but stop losing if the price doesn't move quickly according to plot.
ie Time Stops combined with 'scenario read' proving I'm onto it.This entails virtually buying and immediately being in profit by the end of day say 3.

Anyhow scanning today kicked up EYE


elisabeth wrote on Sunday, March 27, 2011 - 05:46 pm:

Are you still watching EYE - it's coming back to challenge an old (2008) resistance zone at 14-15c. I do wonder how valid resistance is that far back, but the chart is interesting




My chart doesn't go back to your comment of 2008.I don't think such a resistance point is relevant because the Company Operations,Reason for share price interest is different now to then.

EYE is virtually now a New Float situation.It's placing a large number of shares,it's issuing millions of shares to Sophistos and Macquarie [new cornerstone] and it's going to issue some 48mil shares to owners to buy this African Tenement.

Now all this is at 9 cents and the Company will end up with all these "experts" in African Gold Mining on the Board along with genuine Institutional Support.
Agree elisabeth,this is a far cry from what they were up to in 2008? Thus such TA action is completely Irrelevant and has to be ignored.

Eagle EYE now is floating completely on it's Scenario and even though it's Gold in exotic West Africa,I'm going in Monday Morning.I figure the wick to 25 is going to be filled,ie 25 confirmed as new high with 14 stop loss.

happy trading


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Sunday, April 10, 2011 - 01:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looked at EYE for Monday Buy.

My broker maintains Course of Sales data for Friday over the weekend and also provides an intraday chart for Friday.

Reviewing these I find VWAP Friday is 14.9 cents with most Volume occurring at Open during a rapid push to 18cents.
However during most of the day trade was in the 14/15 Range.
In fact the last trade before the Closing Auction was a TakeOut the Bids levels 15 to 13.5 of 400,000 shares 'dumped'.
It was only in the Auction that price recovered to 15.5 cents.

Now if you look at the Depth,you find a 14 bid vs a 15.5 ask as a spread.

So my 'game plan' is
that Monday's Open Auction may result in a less than 15.5 Buy Price.Say 14 cents.
A Buy at 14 with a 13 Stop would be a very prefered Position.


14 is the 50% of the Move on News.50% of Friday action.It's textbook that 50% is support/bounce level for a continuation of this Rise so it's a Go,a Monday Open Buy.

Elisabeth,you've stated elsewhere that you NEVER buy a Monday Open.Also you are a retrace devotee on Buying and are sometimes worried by Gaps.

I suggest you add to your repetoire of Buying-
-Intra Day charts for finding 'hidden' support levels only findable in a intra day [in EYE's case 14]
-Attendance at the Opening Auction
and -Depth "analysis" especially during Trading.

I follow the principle of Just Buy It.Oh I might spend say a half hour at Buying time,my order set up with the button to push if an Ask at my level appears.
but if I've worked out XYZ is a GO?well I'll also chase it 2/3 cents over my 'calculated' buy price.

I don't do Only Buy Low.I'm dealing with Momentum Shares,usually at or near All Time High Land.I don't want them to retrace significantly be 10 0r 20% down so I can bid a Bargain.

Shares that do get you filled in a 5/6 level down the Bid?
Have lost the blessed Momentum you are seeking!!
The best Momentum never retraces.You BUY and it goes up from there.

NTU is doing that for me Now and yes there is always tomorrow for d'Dream to shatter but at least I'm ON and not waiting down d'Bid line for a hiccup back to 70 that may never happen,at least not before I've had a chance at taking 20%+ in a few days of On d'Run.
with NTU 20% 4me is 84 cents,not too unbelievable hey?



" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Sunday, April 10, 2011 - 07:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Elizabeth,
Would you update me on your Trading Situation?
Last I heard you were trading in Duo as in your husband was 'pure' FA and you were putting TA based trades up for your mutual consideration.
If/When you Elizabeth are more dedicated to Full Time Trading,I'm asking whether you will be operating with your own 'dedicated' Stake/Money/Capital or whether it will be with Joint Do$h?

Now I was trained only on FA.You can see by the Twigg endorsed TA academic,Vanstone that there is a Concentration on the ASX 200 as the only way to fly.
IMHO this is a weak,pee poor Attempt to legitimatise TA use in basically a FA world of only Blue Chips.
Like a 'convince' on a Blue Chip is really the only way to be respectable,legitimate frankly Sell ya Book,Consultancy in d'Legitimate End of d'Market ie ASX 200 and above.[ASX 100/50 even 20!!]

This is really what the current IC thread in Systems is really all about.DIY a million portfolio based on all that DRIVEL that stockbrokers sprout.

Elisabeth,this System Method has NOTHING of value to offer to a real,true Momentum Goer.All these parameters of System Mechanical Backtested are IMHO absolutely Irrelevant to a wanna be/Am Momentum Junkie.
Fast Money,Big Wins Pilgrims to Mammon.

No Paid to Learn Academic outta Bond University has a Clue about the bottom end of the Market.No academic study can confirm [or deny] how to play in the swamp of under 10,let alone the 1300 shares outside the ASX 200.

Elisabeth,I think basically this failure of Appreciation is because they are talking/wanting to suck in the holders of a Million Dollar PLUS portfolios.
These are their audience,their pool that they wish to influence,get as 'followers'.

Well,me?I work on say $50grand,even how to turn $10grand into $50,000 in say 2 years or $50grand to $100gs in a Year.
It requires Faith in one's developed capability.
It requires a rapid decision that you are Wrong[Stop Loss]

but it also relies on various Simplicities being accepted and run with by Putting ya Dang Money Down and being prepared to seek instant vindication.

General Market "Stable"
Hot Sector Pick of not an Established but d'Up'n'Comer GOER
in the Proven Best Setor'
Thus PEK rather than LYC.

Do you follow,Elisabeth?

Such a plan/plot is not able to be 'argued' against a FA'er especially a dillatante FA who say thinks Warren Buffet[Wazza Buff] is some proven Guru.

Elisabeth,Against all proper,respectable practioners of TA theory advocating Mechanical,Back Tested Systems,I stand for a Discretionary Pick of shares,bottom end shares that are visably obviously Rising/Momentuming,have 'valid' reasons/in FAct for Rising and BUYing them on d'whim to sell them when they 'satisfy'.

Am I wasting my time getting you,elisabeth to Go with me?

LCY,elisabeth.With EYE LCY is my mondee open interest.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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pjf000
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Must try that local rum







Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

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elisabeth
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Thursday, April 14, 2011 - 05:05 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Jaded, my apology for the delayed response – I’ve been away with very limited internet access.

Trading environment:
I’m actually quite bullish on XAO in the short term, but at a slower rate than the parabolic rise since Mar 17. As I’m such a market mover (can’t tell you how many times the depth changes to the negative just after I enter!), now that I’ve said that, the market will plunge soonest! But, world dramas aside, I can’t see a strong retrace just yet. All due respect to all on the forum who give some fantastic analysis of our market which I do take on board, I have a very simple XAO chart based on the “Death Cross” - 2 and 9 month EMAs simulating the 50 and 200 day averages (+/- 22 trading days per month) and that’s looking quite strong at the moment. Legend has it that billions of dollars of institutional money key off this simple moving average cross trading system. I don’t usually trade blue chips as I prefer shares under 50c, but I do recognize that what’s happening up there in insto territory will/may impact most shares and view my holdings with the overall market in mind.

Trading – availability:
I don’t know yet about availability to trade more seriously – have some big changes in my life at the moment and though I am spending more time on analysis, etc, it will be a while before things settle enough to feel “normal” whatever that will be!

Buying:
I won’t be getting access to intraday data in the near/medium future though I certainly see the benefit – some of the intraday charts Rudy and others have posted are really interesting in terms of levels of support and resistance during the day. Yes, I agree, attendance at the opening is often very instructional. And, yes, I already am a devotee of depth analysis (though, as mentioned above, it often slaps me once I put my money in!)

My capital:
It’s always OUR money (forum won't allow me to use the d word as you did?), hubby’s and mine, but I was given some options long ago and use the proceeds of those just for me for short term trading, ie no discussion with hubby. We also have a little invested in blue chips, and these involve a combined decision. With my trading (play) money, I take relatively small positions. My aim now is to build this small base into a worthwhile trading base so that I can take larger positions. After I achieve that base, profit will go into “our” capital. Hopefully heaps!

Momentum:
Jaded, your comments on momentum and retrace are very valid. I do look for retrace buys and miss many good trades because the share does not retrace to my anticipated level and just keeps going. I’m intrigued by the “mirroring” discussion in another thread – there is usually a bit of consolidation involved, I probably need to pay more attention to consolidation in addition to retrace to test breakout. Also, I’ve not been that focused on momentum shares as the market has pushed upwards so rapidly, but I obviously should be, if only to put them on my watch list.

I do follow your thoughts, Jaded. I think my comments above show I look at the general market, however, I admit, I don’t look at my sector charts often enough. As to the up and coming GOER, you, Jaded, have a huge talent in thinking sideways to find these GOERs – I’ve publicly and privately expressed my appreciation for the wealth of information and the ideas you share on this forum and I absolutely agree with your philosophy: “I stand for a Discretionary Pick of shares, bottom end shares that are visibly obviously Rising/Momentuming, have 'valid' reasons/in FAct for Rising and BUYing them on d'whim to sell them when they 'satisfy'..”

EYE:
Did you get in on Monday? Hopefully at 14c? Yesterday’s candle is a nice bullish engulfing, though on low volume. Good luck with EYE, hope it flies for you. My most recent buy was RUM last week which I successfully immediately sent backwards – it’s a stirrup trade and is just above my stop. It too had a decent day yesterday with lowish volume.

I won’t start about stops!

Going forward:
Are you wasting your time? Absolutely not. I value your posts in that they prod me to think outside of my square/squares. However, I just don’t know how much I can contribute as I still have time constraints.

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