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Archive through February 24, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through February 24, 2011

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skyhawk
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Post Number: 110
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Monday, February 14, 2011 - 02:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

It’s been a bit quite on this thread of late and thought I would just post some thoughts. Firstly, hope everyone is taking FULL advantage of this wave 3 of larger wave C of major wave B rally that started in March 2009.

I personally am fully invested at present with a large position in NWS at $16 of which my weekly cycles pointed to a significant low just before Christmas. It FINALLY decided to move a few weeks back. Also invested in a group of other stocks taking advantage of this move.

I have decided to take a position in ETF Gold at $129. I don’t think this will be a big move and are targeting around $136-137 as I think this is a reaction to an incomplete downtrend. Nevertheless good to recoup some earlier losses in after getting stopped late last year. Hopefully when this upward move completes a decline into the $117-21 area will present a better buying opportunity by June.

The SPX and XAO monthly Cycles Analysis have been pointed hard up last year and until they look like topping best to stay with the trend. Last you was looking for either a Feb or June 2011 top depending on how the monthly cycles looked early in 2011. These cycles are still pointed hard up with room for more upside and so a Feb top is out of the question at present.

From the current pattern of trend, I am targeting approximately 21st March to complete this 3rd wave of wave C. Thereafter a correction into April which might end up being a sideways distribution before the final high in mid June??

Would be interested in your thoughts

Cheers


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pjf000
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Monday, February 14, 2011 - 03:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If you are fully invested then to my mind your gold will act contrary to the market so it would be taken for a hedge against your other positions.







Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

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skyhawk
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Monday, February 14, 2011 - 03:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi,

Spot Gold like most other commodities have been generally moving in the same direction since the rally started in March 2009.
ETF Gold on the ASX is Gold in Aussie Dollars and generally does it's own thing of late. 
Nevertheless I have a short term target which I mentioned in my last post of 136-137 and I think that is achievable..

Between now and June though it might be headed lower as you imply 

Cheers


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billt
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Tuesday, February 15, 2011 - 01:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys


I tend to agree Randall that SPX is in a nine waver heading north off the 1010 low.

The question is whether the fifth wave is losing some steam on SPX.

I posted over on Rudy's Non-EW site a 67 day cycle count which, if it eventuates, puts a top in the next 48 hours or so.

The majority of EW Counts circulating have us close to completing wave 5 of the fifth wave - I attach my EW thoughts overlayed on Rudy's trend work....I tend to follow the EMA 3 & 10 cross for trading purposes now on my juiced indice etfs. I post these 'top ideas' purely to engage the grey matter....this top could easily extend to higher ground.






I sold out of ETF Gold back in early December when it pieced the UBB and gave the W%14 signal....lack of 'oomph' lost me! $AUD too strong...

I am now in AGQ (Double Silver) and loving it. 30% gain in a few weeks, so it has the horse power...

I bought in at the bottom of wave 2 (triple bottom), with a great W%14 signal and again at the EMA 3 & 10 cross, and I am ready to exit as I sense the test of previous highs may signal a wave ii of 3 reversal. UBB is above the previous top, so watching it closely....three previous highs gave a distinctive 'M' pattern on the W%14 above the -20, we have one forming again right now! The wave v tops on AGQ come often with a big blow off top - so on my toes!

If you are a fan of the gold/silver story, AGQ is worth considering.





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skyhawk
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Tuesday, February 15, 2011 - 01:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

Well done on your ACQ trade!!


As mentioned yesterday I see SPX coming into wave 5 of a larger wave 3 of wave C at present. Agree it should lose some steam here, but could take a number of weeks top mop up minor subdivisions. As such more of a creeping trend might pan out between now and then.
I think we need to see a good correction (wave 4) before any top is established, and if the trend can “hang on” till mid March then we might get it then.

My cycles suggest we will get a good run out of the XAO between now and then (perhaps up to 8% from current levels) as cycles pointed hard up.

MLTD Delta also back this up for both SPX and XAO. It’s pointless monitoring MTD Delta at the moment because they will be small peaks. The larger cycles are MUCH more important!! We have a significant MLTD cycle point due between now and 21st March and this might coincide with wave 4 completing. In the meantime trying to make the most of this market.


Cheers


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market_mad
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Thursday, February 17, 2011 - 03:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks to me like Wave 3 up is close to complete. Catalysts for a potential sell off appear to be emerging. Mideast tensions are on the radar with reports last night that Iran is planning on sending two warships through the Suez Canal unnerving markets and driving a bounce in oil. Add to that the continued strikes in Egypt and new ones in previously peaceful Bahrain (third day of protests with police firing tear gas at protesters ) and you get the feeling that geopolitical tensions can all too easily emerge as an excuse for some long overdue profit taking on the back of higher oil prices.

Add to that some recent data that indicates the global economy, while recovering admirably, has had some softer numbers ( US retail sales and industrial production both disappointing expectations this week). Then we have a report doing the rounds that Moody's unexpectedly put the Australian banks on review for a potential downgrade.

The other emerging concern is inflation and to that end US CPI tonight (12.30 am) would be a critical signpost and one that could rattle markets.

I get the feeling that the catalysts for a sell off form an overbought market are appearing. Also, we have seen some moves in related markets that may indicate some risk-off action is nearby - VIX was actually up last night even though equities were up, and copper has come off in the last 2 nights. Sure, these are not groundbreaking moves, but in the scope of a market that has run up non-stop on strong momentum, the smallest cracks in the wall tend to be good indicators of an impending reversal, even if it is a short term one.

Wave 4 down over the coming weeks then ride that Wave 5 up until May or thereabouts? Then get ready for one of the best shorting opportunities for years? Is that what you guys see as happening?

Interested to hear your thoughts

Cheers
MM

(Message edited by market_mad on February 17, 2011)


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ehmu
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Friday, February 18, 2011 - 05:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ed:

Thank you for sharing your views.

There seems to still be quite a bit of residual fear in market players. The predominant theme in discussion right after the feb2010 low was bearish, and most people missed the 20% rally. Then another low Aug 2010 with both technical and fundamental sentiment poo-pooing any hopes of rally. 25% later, and many are still in awe that it continues strong. People have been talking about a pull/back or correction ever since the August low, I wonder why they haven't give equal time to bullish extensions.

I have reverted back to my simple trend following methods (all be it that they are shorter than in the past). I wasted a lot of valuable time in the last year analyzing wave forms, and speculating on where the markets would bounce or pull back. I would have made more money had I just stayed with the program and traded stocks.

I also mention to you the idiot method that is now a popular hind sight, but still very effective. Billt, Rudy, and Randall like it as well. Randall put it forward initially I think---check out the "astrology and the markets" thread. I'm attaching the files from Randall's post so you don't have to dig for them. Check out Randall's thread though, there are valuable discussions and variations there.

Thanks again Randall. I am using the 'idiot' method to check my trading decisions before I execute them.

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/427230/the_idiot_s_guide_to_trading-2 838039.pdf

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/427230/the_idiot_s_cover_page-2838040 .pdf


_____ n a m a s t e

This post is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

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ehmu
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Friday, February 18, 2011 - 06:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here is the beauty of the idiot system.

Attached monthly idiot chart c/w down trend line.

Do you think that the price is likely to stop around 600?

If it does, do you think that it will drop 50% on a dime?

Is it possible that price will proceed toward 700 ?

Is it possible the QE4 will punch price through the dt ?

I'm not saying that it is easy to know where the markets will go next---but one can see that it is much easier to have an opinion about whether to be long or short with the monthly chart than looking at the 15min chart.









_____ n a m a s t e

This post is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

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billt
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Friday, February 18, 2011 - 05:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A target of 1340 on SPX is an obvious turning point assuming W5 = 1.62xW1.


With SPX looking to have completed a full 5 wave impulsive up from the 1275.1 low, we may have completed this leg north?

I will be waiting a few more days for the EMA 3 & 10 to cross, and the trend lines to break to confirm the reversal… by the time that occurs, we may be shortly thereafter turning north once again.

An initial trip back to 1275, then possibly a frustrating wave 4 pattern, then a push north to 1430-40 is my expectation....timing perhaps by end of April/early May






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rdumas
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Sunday, February 20, 2011 - 07:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

I've been pretty quite on this thread for some time due to non market activities and also because I find that counting waves at the micro level doesn't help very much for my style of investing. I prefer to stay in the market for more than a few days.

My current wave count has been pretty much the same as it has been for quite a few months now but the following chart is an update. I have nominated the various EW levels to assist 'newbies' in understanding the terminology.




So, verbalising what is shown in the above chart, we would say that the index is currently in the final stages of completing Minute wave v of Minor wave 3.

As Minor wave 2 was of a 'sharp' nature, it is highly likely that Minor wave 4 will be of a flat nature such as a Flat, Triangle or complex wave pattern. This would suggest that any retracement in this wave will probably not be deep.

For those wishing to enter into the final Minor wave 5 to take advantage of the final leg up off the March 2009 rally, they should get reasonable opportunities as a basing pattern should emerge that will set an obvious bottom. At this stage it does look like May/June will probably see the final top of the rally that started in March 2009.

Now as to what will happen post reaching the top of the March 2009 rally, much will depend on how high the market goes before the top is reached. The retracement following the big plunge of October 2007 to March 2009 has already recovered over 61.8%. If the index can recover over 70% of that plunge then the chances increase that the pattern for the overall GFC will be that of either a Flat or Triangle Pattern. That is to say that the March 2009 low will not be taken out by any following market falls.

We have already recovered enough of the plunge to put a Triangle pattern in play for the GFC and that is actually my personal highest probability scenario. At this stage the more dramatic Zigzag pattern that more aggressive bears are espousing is a possibility but in my view it is not a high probability scenario.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, February 21, 2011 - 03:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

I am trading the 'idiot' system, so please take my comments purely as 'educational'!

My own feeling is that Minute iii of 3 has yet to complete. Looking at the price action since late December, it would appear to suggest a single minute impulsive push north. There are five reasonably distinct waves since December to suggest we are not far from completing this current pattern - considering the current 'blow off' formation. The price action fits very neatly into your tram lines. I would expect a more significant pullback for a wave iv of 3, eg 60 points, which we have yet to have since December.

This Count gives room for two more significant highs after we reach the current top: v of 3 and 5. I sense we are in the process of completing the fifth of nine waves off the 1010 low. The next pullback may be at the Minute level, rather than the Minor level - but time will tell.


This would extend Primary B/Intermediate C run to c.October which will be 4 years from the 2007 high....






US GDP is currently improving quarter on quarter, and Q4 2010 - Second Estimate looks set to be in the 3.2 to 3.3% range. Q1 2011 gets released in late April, which on my count is the beginning of Wave 4 of 5. I feel, a much pessimistic GDP announcement for Q3 2011 will herald the commencement of Primary Wave C...that may be the catalyst. With QE2 being rolled out until July, and with the promise of more QE to come I see no let up in the upward progression of the markets in the short term.

Interesting to note that here in the real world our Reserve Bank & Treasury are expecting an increase in Aus' GDP in the second half of this year...XJO may have FA support to follow a USA lead...?

For now, a top is not far away, a retracement to >1170 for iv of 3, then a push onto 1430-40 area by May for the completion of 3 of 5. My October target is c.1500.


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billt
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Monday, February 21, 2011 - 04:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



correction: last line, should be >1270

"For now, a top is not far away, a retracement to >1270 for iv of 3, then a push onto 1430-40 area by May for the completion of 3 of 5. My October target is c.1500."


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billt
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Monday, February 21, 2011 - 04:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A final point:


Many Bears are getting very excited that we are at the completion of this 5 wave pattern north (see red count), and the sky is about to fall....many Bears are smashing poor salmon on rocks and getting ready to devour their prey....but not this big Bi-Polar!

I feel this is a very low probability event (using Rud'meister language), but I intend to short the leg south just in case I have it completely wrong! (...maybe 'a touch of bi-polar' I hear 'Astro Boy' say...or 'a bob each way' as Rudy would say...)

If the rally continues I will inevitably sell the short at similar prices, and no harm will be done.





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rdumas
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 08:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re your post 643. You could be right there Bill. My Delta chart for the XJO suggests that the current decline will not last very long. If the SPX follows other markets it will possibly start a decline in tonight's session. Now if that decline doesn't last long (based on my Delta studies) then it would rule out the possibility that the move is a Minor wave 4. The higher likelihood is that the move would be at the Minuette level and that the pattern is still forming Minute wave 3.

Looking at the chart below we can see the obvious difference in levels in the declines encircled. Assuming that the red encircled decline is at the Minor level then the blue encircled decline is at the Minute level.



Having said the above we can therefore see that we have yet to see a second decline of equivalent size to the blue encircled decline. This verifies your comment that we may not have seen Minute wave 3 completed yet.

Hats off to your analysis Bill.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 08:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello guys.

I am holding back posting charts at this stage although may do so
privately if requested by those interested.

Bill, according to my Delta analysis (and this vibration has been very
good of late) this decline is an MTD level decline and will be temporary
perhaps running into the 24th at the most.

More importantly my Medium Long Term solution is flagging
a major correction starting Mid March to 3rd week March. That correction
according to the Medium Long Term Solution will precede that last
leg up.

You cannot accurately call the bigger corrections with the use of MTD
timeframe.
Monthly dynamic cycles are still hard up, however I suspect this
will change with the higher level correction in March.
Last post I talked about ETF Gold moving higher according to
my 8hr Dynamic Cycles. This has come to pass and happy with
the result so far....

Cheers


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rdumas
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

My Delta charts are also showing a move down to (at worst) the end of this week for the XJO and then a strong move up into mid March/early April. So it looks like we are seeing things the same way at this stage. This lines up with what Bill was talking about in terms of Minute wave 3 not having completed yet. It looks like Minor wave 3 will probably be the top that I anticipate forming in mid March/early April.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 10:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys,

As we are all on similar pages for the next few months, I add a piece from a US poster who suggests that this 5 wave pattern from 1010 is about to begin the carnage. I sense this guys timing is just out by a few months....

From a FA point of view, I can't see it all at present. Both Rudy's & Andrew Cycle work suggest a further higher high top to follow in the months ahead.

I will 'short' this next correction just in case we are all wrong! Here is his piece:


"The fed is out of ammo, and our leaders in Washington have already bankrupted us. Government spending is the next bubble to burst, and since the US government is the largest employer in the world, I expect unemployment to skyrocket though 2012, and that can only equate to lower tax revenues, on a federal and local level, and more defaults, bankruptcies, and foreclosures. This is what's called a 'deflationary spiral'. If you think this sounds too bearish... I assure you this is only the tip of the iceberg; as western civilization, and capitalism will ultimately be held accountable for the political unrest we're already seeing spread throughout the middle east, and the rest of the world.

You can't repair a liquidity bubble by pumping in more liquidity! The most recent rally was only the final leg - wave 5 - of a 2 year consolidation period, in the most common of all corrective patterns (a zigzag pattern), so the next crash - into wave 3 - should make the crash of 08 look like a Sunday picnic."


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eblode
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 11:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BILLT,
Not for one moment is your doom and gloom post going to eventuate. Never happen and will not happen. Since 1950 I've been hearing that doom and gloom "concerto" ever since the Marshall Plan built up Europe after WW2. Then they screamed the Fed was spending millions on Europe and that will cause another crash, And so it has been for decades. What you guys can not understand is that the USA has a bottomless pit of money. Every President since Truman has said publicly that he will cut the budget. And they just keep on spending. I have witnessed government projects that are unbelievable in cost and the average American hasn't got a glue of these projects. I've seen the Thule air base in Greenland having 700 trucks keeping their motors running night and day just in case they freeze up during the night. It was summer then. I've seen 2500 jet fighters and bombers in "mothballs" in Pima,Arizona just sitting on the desert floor. I've seen 300 ships tied up in Chesapeak Bay in Baltimore just waiting for a new war to start and supply the troops. As I said before, the USA has a bottomless pit of money. As soon as this momentary market recovers and the USA recovers happy days are here again. Happens every decade.

Eugenio


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rdumas
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 02:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

This is what I believe may be happening on the XJO at present. Now as I expect that we probably haven't finished with our correction yet, we may still have another 3 wave move down to complete. With wave equality that would put us at close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level.



The other option would be that we have already completed the move down today. Whilst it's possible I don't think we have though.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 03:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...tend to agree,

W%14 & ema 3&10 crossover confirmed:

The lower trendline back to July sits as support at the c.4760 level, with the previous closing lows in early Feb at 4752/3 as something else to bounce off if needed.

The LBB is currently at c.4708 if XJO gets spooked...

Interested to see if the US markets start to pull back tonight too?





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billt
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 04:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

One other thought:

If my SPX count prevails, SPX may retreat into a more complex wave iv of 3 outcome, which in turn may influence the price action of XJO to do likewise....


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skyhawk
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 04:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

I am anticipating the next leg up after this correction not to run into April. My MTD charts suggest late March early April as well, but I think it will come earlier than this because we are dealing not just with an expected MTD high but an MLTD high at that same time.... and this needs to be factored into the analysis

Cheers


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rdumas
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Wednesday, February 23, 2011 - 06:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Considering the Moon cycle effect, the mid to late March is more than likely so I have to agree with you.

My MLTD chart says the same thing as yours for the XJO. Fortunately from an MLTD perspective the following decline is a relatively short time period. Using my MTD to fine tune I see a 4 to 6 week decline. That would take the decline to bottoming sometime in late April/early May. Is that what you see?


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, February 23, 2011 - 07:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

If indeed wave 5 of 3 has completed then yes a decline into the time period you mentioned.
I must mention here that unlike Delta Society and Copan, I am running 2 MLTD timeframes or cycles. In the conventional MLTD, the cycle point completes in June. My sub MLTD (which is another cycle I discovered) has a completion between now and mid to 3rd week March and then another in June.

If in fact we just had an MLTD point complete, then a 5 week decline as you say. But this might also be only an MTD decline, in which case the decline only lasts into early next week before one last leg up to complete the MLTD point in March.

You cannot use the MTD as subwaves of the MLTD in order to make up an MLTD cycle point as used by Copan and Delta Society. They don’t add up……

Cheers


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rdumas
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Hi Andrew,

I develop my MLTD and MTD charts quite independently to avoid those sort of problems.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Probably the best way to learn it....

I will be creating a new thread solely
for the discussion of cycles in the future. That
will keep this thread focused on Elliott Wave
Analysis..

Cheers


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rdumas
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Hi Andrew,

That would be great. I look forward to reading the new thread.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

The following chart hopefully puts things in perspective. In EW terms the Level 3 would be equivalent to a Minor level pattern. Level 2 would be equivalent to a Minute level pattern and Level 1 would be equivalent to a Minuette level pattern.

We are not yet certain what level the current pattern will develop into however if our previous thoughts are correct then it should be another Minuette level pattern and should not last long. In the face of all of the current negativity it certainly appears to be setting the scene for a Minute level pattern but the future will reveal all.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, February 23, 2011 - 08:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

Many EW pundits are calling this the end of minor wave 3.
I agree with you that the decline in late Jan was minuette level and
this decline might be one too. If that is the case then the correction
will be over by early next week. If not then in 4-5 weeks as you mentioned
earlier.

We talked about MLTD points before. Certainly on my Delta charts
the MLTD point is due between early this week and 3rd week March.
The only question mark is has it arrived. If this decline finds support
here, then it will most likely come mid to 3rd week March.
If not, expect to see XJO decline another 100 pts from current levels
To 4700..

Cheers


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skyhawk
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Hi guys,

for those interested, an excellent Cyclic Analysis article by Jim Curry on the current position of the US markets.

This concurs with theme my own Cycles Analysis has been suggesting since late last year. That the current trend persists into June when the 4 year cycle is expected to top. To read the whole article click on the link.

Cheers

http://www.safehaven.com/article/20057/stock-market-cycles-looking-for-a-peak





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rdumas
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Hi Andrew,

If the 4717.6 level of the 31st January low was taken out as you suggest it would invalidate my ITD/MTD Delta counts for the XJO. For that reason I don't believe that it will happen because they have been tracking really well to date.

I would be interested in seeing what your long term cycle charts for the XJO are looking like if you have the chance to post them. I would think that they would say that the 4 year cycle isn't topping as yet.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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hi Rudy


The five wave pattern certainly played out on SPX last night.

My count puts us in a wave 4 of 3 - fairly sure we will have a Level 2 decline.

Five initial waves in an impulsive wave down off the 1344.07 look reasonable complete on the 15 min chart for a wave a.

SPX Sell Signals have all activated:

EMA(3) cross EMA(10)
$BPSPX
W%14
VIX







The back test of the EMAs on the 15min chart @ wave 4 of a gave a reasonable exit position for my Bull ETFs - loaded up on the Bears...


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skyhawk
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Wednesday, February 23, 2011 - 10:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

In my case a break of that 4717 Jan level would not only invalidate
the ITD/MTD. In my analysis it would also signal a primary trend
change as that level also has an MLTD point!!
For this reason I am maintaing a bullish stance and think this
decline will be very short lived.

4 yr cycle charts are still bullish without much change. Will post this evening

Cheers


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rdumas
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Wednesday, February 23, 2011 - 10:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

I agree with you. I am still long in my market plays at this stage. My BHP Delta is also pointing to a continuing trend up for the time being.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

At this stage I still remain with the view that this correction will be short lived and that we will get another move up into mid March.

By the way, following is a similar exercise in levels for the XJO. As you can see I have tentatively labeled the current decline as a level 1.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Hello Rudy,

I have attached the updated monthly Cycles Analysis.
As can be seen the 4 year cycles has only just crossed the centreline for the SPX and is right on the centreline for the XAO.

I should not here that once we have a correction greater than 1 month and then the market turns back up again, the 4 year cycle profile will change dramatically and well an truly cross above the centreline. That will be a signal suggesting the trend is approaching a top and that upside is limited.

The AUDUSD chart is more mature. This chart is suggestive of more upside but it will be limited and it has already seen the very best of the gains. As such any further upside should be anaemic.

cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
monthly cycles_xao_spx_240211.xls (412.2 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
monthly cycles_audusd_240211.xls (143.4 k)



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ehmu
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Hi guys:

All of the different levels are a little confusing on xjo. Specifically, if this turns out to be a wave 4 pull back, doesn't it have to stay above wave 1. And is wave 1 price high at 4815 ?

thanks
H


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Hi Andrew,

Thanks for your latest cycle analysis charts. Much appreciated. I note that your SPX chart has the index at the 3 standard deviation level which would also limit where it can go from here.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

Not sure which particular chart you are discussing in your last post. The only chart that I have recently posted for the XJO did not have an Elliott Wave count on it. Could you tell me which particular chart your post refers to so that I can answer your question?


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Hi Rudy:

I wasn't referring to any specific post regarding XJO wave count. I am thinking that the daily xjo chart from about DEc1 low would be counting toward a wave 4 at some level with this pullback.

There is a chart of xjo posted with bills post #652, but I hunch that you have your own favorite XJO daily charts.


_____ n a m a s t e


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billt
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Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 08:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Counting the SPX.

Perhaps a failed 5th to complete the last top? PUG was suggesting that we had another minor leg north of the 1344, which did not eventuate, so I've added a failed 5th.

Two possible counts south:

1. The impulsive initial wave south looks complete. The retrace to 1312 looked pretty feeble (bearish), so tonight may give us more of a 'wave b' pattern to look at?

2. 1299 was only the completion of wave iii and we have another leg down tonight to complete v.






Thanks Rudy & Andrew for your posts on the Cycle analysis, it is very helpful to me and I am sure others who tune in. I am still on my Cycle 'L' plates, so both of your explanations are very helpful...




hey Hal,
I imagine your query to Rudy was based on the assumption that XJO is in a classic 5 wave EW move....unfortunately it gave up that course many months ago - Rudy's XJO EW count looks like alphabet soup, it is one for the purists, which is perhaps why Rudy has 'eased up' on the XJO labelling for now.
SPX continues in a much more classic EW 'readable' way for me, so I avoid putting too many notations on XJO in order not to confuse things. Simply put, I feel SPX has just completed wave 3 of 3, so we have four further waves to complete the pattern. Undoubtedly XJO will follow in some similar fashion...the EW rules on the XJO count gets a little less clear, but Rudy I am sure will attempt to explain. SPX EW Count is my main guide...
Andrew's work may give us the 'heads up' as we go tentatively forward whether the count I am suggesting will ultimately eventuate. A very large number of EW posters on stockcharts are suggesting this 5 wave pattern off the 1010 low is complete - this is where Andrew's work proves invaluable to add to the weight of probabilities and possible outcomes.


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Hello Rudy,

That is very correct..
That chart suggests that the best of the
gains are done and that upside will be limited
from here. Perhaps up to 1400+ max. Interestingly the XAO has "room" for more %
upside once this correction completed as
suggested by it's monthly chart.

At this stage it is unclear whether this correction
is the MLTD point we have been anticipating. The time
range on my chart for that point falls between last Monday
and 3rd week March so it is in the range, but we could potentially
find a low and run up into 3rd week March.

Last year we talked about a potential top
either Feb OR June depending on the profile
of the Monthly cycles analysis chart I just posted.

We have our Feb correction but the 4 year cycle
is still up so the market trend has a good
chance now of persisting till June.
I will be very interested to see If it can hang
On till 13th June because that circumstance
would present the best short trade for the
next 2 years...

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 09:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Bill is absolutely correct about my reasons for not putting EW counts on the XJO because it is very much like absolute soup and would only confuse readers. I am definitely not playing the XJO using EW analysis at this time because the patterns are highly complex. The XJO is much easier to play using channels, Fibonacci methodologies and Delta during this period.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 09:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

I am pretty committed to my longs at present so do hope that the XJO didn't create an MLTD high in recent times.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Hello Rudy,

Likewise. Just took some partial profits from ETF Gold at 137.2
since entry signal at $129 since signal was generated.
I think it will find overhead resistance at 141.5 and that should
complete this leg up before a correction.

Overall the long term chart pattern looks like a wave 4 ascending
triangle so this will be a great pattern to trade once the markets
get back into longer term bear mode...


Cheers


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skyhawk
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Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 11:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We might be coming into some sort of support here both in time and price.

Conti Cyclic Analysis shows 20 traded day inverted Cycle from the 18th Jan to 17th Feb, and a possible regular cycle from the 28th January to present, currently 19 traded days in the cycle

Cheers



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ehmu
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Hi Rudy:

Sorry about that, I threw out an open question about XJO, not meaning to direct it to anyone specifically. I thought that someone would be keeping EW tabs on XJO. I was imagining that there was better order to the price progression of XJO.

From your responses I realize that XJO is the red headed step child, and no one really has too many expectations where she will go next.

Thanks too, for your response Bill, keeping the Elk hunter out of the weeds once again.


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

On the contrary. I only said that I wasn't posting EW counts on the XJO and that I was not using EW as my methodology for trading the XJO.

As both Andrew and I have been saying, we have been expecting the XJO's current decline to be short lived and that we would get another move up into around mid March.

I personally was suggesting that the decline would be over by the end of this week but Andrew suggested that it may take into the early part of next week. Either way, we expect the next move to be up for 2 to 3 weeks and I have been buying into this market on that assumption.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Andrew,

Thanks for that short term Conti chart. It appears to agree with my expectations about a bottom today or tomorrow.

I got out of my ETF GOLD a little earlier however was happy enough with the result.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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XJO might be the 'red headed cousin' in EW land but it just makes you laugh how Italian it can get at times....4803 v 4804! Three days in a row - text book stuff...

LBB & 100% retrace are at similar levels, and a trip further south to these levels fits within the notional wave iv price range of the last wave series.

Does the EW wiggles from the recent high give you a possible termination at these levels Rudy? - I dont have access to the 15 min XJO charts....





 
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