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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through March 04, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 04, 2011

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rdumas
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Post Number: 4575
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Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 02:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Here are a couple of options. The first one means that the bottom is in. The alternative is that there is still a small 5th wave down to go which needs to be smaller than the 3rd wave (because the 1st was larger than the 3rd).

Remember that if it goes below the 4717 then my Delta analysis is incorrect and I would find my longs in a bit of trouble. In the alternative scenario we could even get failed 5th which could show up as a double bottom.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 04:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

thanks for that....

One further thought is that we have just completed a 5 wave down 'wave a'....trend line is still intake for now (blue count). XJO BBs squeezed, and the 'losc' looks set to roll over.

My SPX EW count earlier today gave a clearer impulse south.

Both SPX & XJO counts are now in a similar position perhaps - 5 waves down to complete a 'wave a'?










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ken
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Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 07:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

I've been behind reading my posts but congratulations on the 4831 and 4803 support level predictions. Bounces from both of them.

Ken


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ehmu
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 01:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Thursday, February 24, 2011 - 02:02 pm:

As both Andrew and I have been saying, we have been expecting the XJO's current decline to be short lived and that we would get another move up into around mid March.




Hello Rudy:

Yes, thank you very much. I have been following your posts in the non-elliot string, daily bread and your recent collaboration with Andrew and others on timing issues for xjo.

In the short time that I have been reading the EW string, you and several others have commented that XJO's chart isn't always the best candidate for EW land, so I understand the difficulty and the concerns about not discouraging newcomers like myself.

Thank you again for all of the lessons that you so generously donate on technical analysis, and the leadership that you take in the IC forums. I value reading your posts beyond words.


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 06:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You are absolutely spot on with that potential wave A down.

If my Delta stuff is right though I would expect a move up to around mid March and the move down has been a 5 day move so far. That would mean wave B would possibly be a bit longer in time than wave A.

I am definitely not ruling it out but as I expect the next move down to be a level greater than the current one your scenario would have wave C out of proportion with waves A and B. For that reason I still think that this is a wave 4 at some level and we will go into a wave 5 followed by a much larger wave 4 at the next level.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 06:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal and Ken,

Thank you both for your kind words and observations.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 08:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the charts Rudy.
My SPX Delta which is the same one I have been using 
since 2004 concurs fully with  the ITD low you mention  due any time now. The short term  Conti Cyclic action I mentioned a dew days ago also concurs with this.
This could also possibly be an MTD low as well but depends 
heavily on whether the last high was an MLTD high.

The high of 1348 was at a very heavy fib cluster that I made mention 
of some months back. It was always gonna be a stumbling block,
as such it looks like an MLTD high has occured. 
From an EW perspective if this a 4th wave of minor wave 3 up it should 
find an ultimate low at the span of the previous 4th wave of one less degree. That level is approximately 1275.

I will post some shorter term cycles later to see what they suggest too.


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rdumas
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 09:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

My limited experience with MLTDs as taught me that there is quite a bit of slippage due to the higher time frame involved and hence one can only quote an approximate position of the MLTD turning points withiin an accuracy of a few weeks. This is the reason why I place so much emphasis on the lower timeframe of the MTD.

I guess that the other scenario is that the MLTD top is in and my anticipated rally will form a truncated 5th wave.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 09:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



'Wave a' looks to have completed last night, confirming the failed 5th idea.

A pullback >1275 looks the possible target for now if this indeed is 4 of 3 of 5...






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rdumas
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 10:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Delta Terminology

Hi folks,

Just so it doesn't look like Andrew and I are trying to confuse people with acronyms used in our recent posts I thought that I would just give a brief description. I hope that I don't further confuse matters by attempting an explanation but here goes.

In relative terms the ITD charts are short term charts, the MTD charts are medium term charts and the MLTD charts are long term charts.

This methodology only looks at tops and bottoms in terms of time. They DO NOT look at price.

So if you are on a short term chart and you want to know if the next top is going to be higher than the last top then you have to go to the next time frame up to see if the trend is still up. If the higher time frame is expecting a top in the future then you can assume that at the lower time frame the next top will be higher than the last. You don't know how much higher but at least you know it will be higher.

The only problem is that the tops and bottoms in a particular timeframe do do not all land at a specific time but rather within a particular time frame (ie, say =/- 5 bars). Hence there is always an order of accuracy to consider. The absolute order of accuracy increases in the larger time frames because you may be using either weekly or monthly charts rather than say daily charts.

When Andrew suggested that a potential top in the largest time frame MLTD chart could already be in, we have to keep in mind that the top will fall within a 3 to 5 week period. So from the perspective of a small time frame pattern, you could get a lower level top-bottom-top pattern within the order of accuracy of the larger time frame.

So with that explanation in mind, I have made a trading decision that the MLTD top is not yet in place but will be put in place some time around mid March/early April. So at the MTD level I am expecting that we are currently in a decline and that another MTD top will be put in place which will coincide with my anticipated MLTD top.

If I am right, I will make some money during this period. If I am wrong then I will have to wait for a few weeks (3~6 weeks) until the next MLTD low comes about before recovering my paper losses during the next MLTD rally.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 12:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

Thanks for explaining all that, it is something that I probably should have done earlier so others can try and understanding what I am waffling on about!!

Re the MLTD point in question. I originally had 3rd week of March for it to complete. Whether this actually plays our remains to be seen, but we will get a fair idea next week.

I should also mention here that MLTD is not the highest timeframe I use. The biggest is SLTD or Super Long Term Delta. For our type of trading however it is not necessary and purely fr interest only. Also, I have discovered another timeframe between MTD and MLTD. If you use the MTD points as building blocks for the MLTD, then this is inadequate and does not work. Something in between is required. This timeframe gives a cycle point between 20th Feb abd 21st March. After that there is another in mid June.
My Next MLTD point is not due till mid June and this coincides with the SLTD point

There are another 3 additional timeframes I have discovered ranging from very short term very long term but more on those later.

Cheers


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billt
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 02:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew & Rudy,

Thank you for explaining the Cycle work.

Perhaps it is worthwhile to paint the EW picture?

At this moment it seems that both of you are leaning towards a count which puts us still in a wave 3 up - 4 of 3 mode.

It also appears that you are both suggesting that this wave should complete at the >1275 to fit your numbering sequence, and kept this type of count alive.

Andrew suggests : "This timeframe gives a cycle point between 20th Feb and 21st March. After that there is another in mid June. My Next MLTD point is not due till mid June and this coincides with the SLTD point. "


Does the following EW chart give a reasonable expectation of your current Cycle work? I have shown 1275 as the next target (within price band of wave iv of iii of 3), and 1440 which is Pug's next target top (cup & handle 1430). 1500-1550 is Pugs next top...1576 is the Oct 07 high.

- Mid June date for Wave (C) completion - Andrew's MLTD/SLTD

- Wave (A) = Wave (C) in time & price


I note that things can change very quickly on the Cycle front, but this diagram may help viewers to visually absorb the current thought.

Hope that helps






A few questions guys:

Could you confirm your latest thoughts on the completion of:

-wave iv of 3 in time?
-wave 3 of 5 in time?


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billt
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 02:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



4th para correction: 'more probably' not 'alive'

"It also appears that you are both suggesting that this wave should complete at the >1275 to fit your numbering sequence, and kept this type of count more probable."

If SPX feel below <1227 (top of wave i of 3), the Count would require a rethink - and perhaps Wave(C) may have already completed as 5 waves off the 1010 low?

bill


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skyhawk
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 03:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys, I know hindsight is a wonderful thing and I should have showed some more initiative and checked this last week, but thought would show this chart anyways...

Cheers

application/vnd.ms-excel
spx price and time fib realtionship.xls (203.3 k)



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rdumas
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 05:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Note much time and I don't know if Andrew would agree but as I have said quite a few times I expected the current smaller wave 4 to end today (I think Andrew said it could be early next week) I then expect wave 5 to end sometime mid March/early April (I think Andrew was suggesting mid March).


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 05:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Thanks for that chart. Very interesting.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 05:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks also from me, Skyhawk, for your Chart...I admit I'm mostly a 'silent' reader of your postings/charts and I always like your 'take on T/A'...reminds me of my W/T days.

And never apologise for your "hindsight" as I believe its one of the most common and respected T/A Tools...and I mean that seriously. Most things(and changes we make), even life's lessons...good and bad...,are learnt as a result of hindsight! Even our "Polies" use this tool BUT never admit to it, right! So I hope we see many, many more of your charts...in hindsight or not!

Cheers and thanks again...

Dolphin


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skyhawk
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 06:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the compliments Dolphin...

There are a myriad of analysis tools I need to check that compliment the cycles work I use. Fibonacci relationships like that are among the best.
Unfortunately sometimes I don't keep tabs on them as much asI should until after the fact!!

Rudy has talked about some daily conti cyclic action in the XJO. I won't add to that at te moment because he has that pretty much covered, but I did want to add the chart for the XAO monthly which adds weight to the argument of a June top.

Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
xao monthly conti cyclic action_250211.xls (152.1 k)



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skyhawk
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Saturday, February 26, 2011 - 07:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

Re your comments on post 4585, just to clarify what my current take is on the market.

Firstly, my next MLTD point is not due till June. That last one occurred on the 2nd July 2010. I mentioned yesterday that I have discovered another timeframe between MTD and MLTD. I call this timeframe LMTD (Long Medium Term Delta). You won’t find this in Copans videos or even Delta Society, this purely something that I work with. I have been referring to all the larger cycle points thus far on this thread as MLTD in order not to confuse.

An LMTD cycle point can be 1 week duration or longer. I was expecting an LMTD point on the 21st March, but given the very strong Fibonacci Time and price relationship that I posted yesterday, I feel that the 18th Feb high was very significant and that it was the LMTD point I was expecting.

In earlier posts we talked about how an MTD low was due yesterday and this was in fact backed up by the short term Conti Cyclic action. Now the next MTD high is not due until the 3rd week March to 1st week April range. That is a long TIME.
I doubt the market will hold under the 18th Feb level in that timeframe, it will be at least level or higher. As such yesterdays low most likely was also an LMTD low as well as a MTD low.

The next LMTD high is due in mid June together with the MLTD and more importantly the SLTD (Super Long Term Delta)….


Cheers


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rdumas
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Saturday, February 26, 2011 - 07:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Thanks for that clarification. I must admit that I have probably strayed a bit from the traditional Delta stuff and have used it in my own clumsy way but to great effect. Repeating what I have said for some time now, at present my next significant top for the XJO is in the mid March/early April time frame.

As we approach this time frame I'll use EW, Conti and Fibonacci to assist in zeroing in on the actual likely topping period. Like you I believe that the 17 February high will be taken out during this rally.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Saturday, February 26, 2011 - 07:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy,
It's good we see a similar time range for the next MTD high.
Of that date range 21st March stands out in my work

Cheers


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gdd3
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Saturday, February 26, 2011 - 10:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



'Mornin' Skyhawk....

Thanks again for the Monthly "cyclical" Chart. Its a real shame I.C. have yet to include "cycles" as one of their basis indicator tools. I requested these(along with "% increases") way back in June 2004 in the "SUGGESTIONS" Topic....

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/24/286385.html

...but, alas, still nothing as yet.

Actually, Colin's last response(results of survey) I only read this a.m. for the first time as I guess I was really getting use to a 'no response' to repeated requests for any further info on its progress. Apologies, Colin, for not seeing your, almost, immediate response in that case but wondered why you wouldn't think a 'Cycles and Percentage' tool would be of value to whatever time frame one used charts for. I never categorised my time frame when the first placing the request or ever since.

Anyway, Skyhawk, I live in hope but in the meantime I appreciate your's and Rudy's cyclical charts that are posted here.

Have a good weekend.

Dolphin}


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skyhawk
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Saturday, February 26, 2011 - 12:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No probs Dolphin.

It would be difficult for Colin to incorporate a Dynamic Cycles 
function in the IC toolset given they are difficult to work out.
There are quite a few software programs out there though that handle
this subject though.

I will starting a thread in the weeks ahead relevant to  Dynamic Cycles
and Fixed Cycles so as to not further pollute Rudy's EW thread
with Non EW topics. I know he  has a separate non EW running but
Cycles is quite a large topic.

Further to this, rather than refer to Delta by it's name, I will simply 
refer to it as "Fixed Time Cycles" from now on as my analysis
varies from the original tenets of the Delta Phenomenon Book.

Cheers


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ken
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Saturday, February 26, 2011 - 03:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy and all predicting the top - the Ides of March (15th) and the equinox on 21 March have previously provided turning points.

Ken


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rdumas
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Saturday, February 26, 2011 - 03:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

The evidence mounts up for the 15th March. If I remember correctly I think that Andrew felt that the 21st March was also important. At least we are getting hits in the ball park.

Keep in mind though that Andrew and I think that it won't be the top but only an intermediate top.

(Message edited by rdumas on February 26, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Saturday, February 26, 2011 - 03:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Ken.

Precisely!!

Although the next MTD Fixed Cycle Point high is due late March to
early April with respect to the earlier occurrence of this point,
the 21st March phenomenon you mention cannot be ruled
out and this point may come early.

Cheers


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billt
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 07:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The 61.8% fib retrace last night played out precisely as expected.

My primary thought is that (ii) – v – 3 completed last night @ 1306.40:

1294.26 iv - 3
1332.09 (i) – v – 3
1306.40 (ii) – v – 3

The next target is 1367 for (iii) – v – 3. ( 1.62 x wave (i) 37.83 = 61.28 + 1306.40 = 1367.68)


The alternative is that iv - 3 has not completed, and either we have an triangle to finish OR last nights action was the beginning of a c leg down to 1275.





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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 07:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for your thoughts Bill...:

Excellent analysis and post

Cheers


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billt
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 07:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Andrew

I would assume the mid March/21 March top you and Rud'meister have been considering maybe iii - v - 3?

If this rally runs to your June option, the completion of wave 3 may run until early April? Do you have another top in your cycle analysis around this date?

thanks

Bill





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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 08:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

I have an MTD for the 3rd week March.
We need to see if the correction is over by a confirmed higher low
first though. Today's decline was quite deep and we could end up
moving below the last low for a false break low before we see a reversal
to the main uptrend.
The previous wave 4 of one less degree ( a common level for reversal) is at approx 1275. So let's see what happens today/tommorow which will
confirm.


Cheers


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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 08:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Don't have the time at present to give details but I anticipate that the move that the SPX started last night is far from over.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 01:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Along with the $SPXA50R chart posted a few days ago, the $TRAN charts give further cause for concern.

These charts certainly support the argument that the five wave pattern off the 1010 low on SPX might be complete?

If it wasn't for Andrew's & Rudy's Cycle work, you would be becoming more bearish at this point of time.

The $TRAN charts look bearish for now.

The $TRAN/$SPX on the Weekly has given the 'heads up' since December - it now is in a considerably more bearish position than at the April 2010 20% correction.

The PPO divergence on the Daily in mid December 2010 gave the same cautionary divergence.










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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 03:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I have to agree with you. At this stage the way things are shaping up this is not looking good at all. I would be interested to know if Andrew still thinks that a rally into June is on the cards.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 07:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

Irrespective if we make a new low in the SPX to approx 1275 or not,I see no reason to change my thinking at this stage

Cheers


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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 07:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Do you still anticipate an MTD high 15th to 21st March? If so then the decline would have to finish up pretty soon.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 08:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy.
If the MTD/LMTD Cycle point is not in yet then it will be by no later than 11-14th March, but of course it could might be in and the next 2 days will confirm The range for the next MTD high is 21 March to 7th April

Hope this helps

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 06:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Yes, that is helpful.

I'm assuming that you are talking about the MTD/MLTD low cycle point in your post followed by the MTD high on the 21 March to 7 April.


It sure is making an unusual pattern at present.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 07:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy.

As mentioned some posts back, about 2 years
ago I found an additional cycle running between
the MTD and MLTD.
I am not sure what to call it yet but at present
I am calling it LMT (Long Medium Term).
However I think a more appropriate name
would be MI-T (Medium Intermediate Term)

I will not refer to it as Delta, because it not
a Delta Society or Copan discovered solution
or cycle.

This additional cycle is pivotal in determing
the longer term cycles and also helps a lot with
the Medium Term Cycles too.

The last high was an MTD as well as this
new cycle high.
The next MLTD cycle point is due in mid June,
and the next SLTD is due between now and
mid June. Now that is a big resolution, but the
Monthly Cycles analysis confirms the trend
remains up until the 4 year cycle gives suggestions
that the market is topping.

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 07:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

For the other readers, could you confirm that the SLTD time frame is the Metonic cycle which is the 19 year 5 day cycle? If so then that is one huge cycle and for that reason has a lot of slippage in terms of exact timing.

One would think that the MLTD cycle date would fine tune the SLTD date for us so mid June would be what we would aim for.

I note that the last cycles chart that you posted had the SPX outside of the 3 std deviation band which is why it had to have a decline. As a market normally cannot stay outside of the 3 std deviation band for more than 1% of the time do you agree that we need a larger decline in order to bring it at least to the 2 std deviation level prior to the next rally up into mid June?


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 07:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

That is correct, the SLTD is a Metonic Cycle or 19 Years 5 days in theory. Generally as a result of slippage I have found this to be 19-20 Years. Remember we are looking at a monthly chart over say 20-80 years depending on your data set. As such you cannot expect the resolution to be bang on. Allow up to 10 bars (months) either way of each cycle point. Just to show readers the power if this cycle here are some examples:

Spot Gold: Peaked 1980 and bottomed 1999 (19 years)
AUDUSD: peaked 1988-89 and then peaked again 2008 (19-20 years)
SP500: peaked 1987 and peaked again 2007 (20 years)

So looking at Spot Gold, if one places any emphasis on the Metonic Cycle, the next secular high will not occur until 2018-2019

I should stress here this cycle is to do with TIME. The results can be a price high to high, a low to a high, high to a low, or a low to a low.


As for the Monthly Cycles Analysis, you will notice that the price action is within the bounds of the +3 and -3 for 99% of the price action. This means that it has a very low probability of maintaining a level at or greater than the 3 std deviation levels. Now price action can pierce the levels, but as you can see on that chart these excursions are very brief.
Unfortunately we cannot time the market when such conditions are set up, however what this tool does do is indicate to us that the trend will be at risk in the months ahead and that caution is warranted. It also tells us that when a decline does start, it will be at a minimum back tot eh nominal trend level (pink line).

The 3 cycles in the lower panes are there to help time when the market and at present the 4 year cycle is at the centreline and more room to move up, as such even though we have reached a critical level, it could be 3-5 months (or whenever the cycles suggest) before the market it ready to come done.

Cheers


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billt
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 08:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



US Economic Statistics support Andrew’s Cycle analysis.

US GDP increasing quarter on quarter (now at 2.8%)
US Consumer Confidence – exploding north over past three months; 53.3 to 60.6 to 70.4
US Manufacturing – increasing 68.8 to 71.2
US Durable Orders – increasing from -0.4% to 2.7%

Over the past several years SPX has not turned south until GDP or PCE begun to retreat on a quarter by quarter basis.


"The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter 2010 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased."

As long as PCE continues to accelerate I see no reason for SPX to turn south. US Consumer Confidence has been exploding north over past three months: 53.3 to 60.6 to 70.4, which can only be good news for PCE and US GDP for Q1 2011 figures to be released in late April.

Despite Indicators to the contrary, I still feel we are in wave v of 3…Andrew’s analysis is supported by very strong FA.

I remain cautious nevertheless as we have had five solid waves off the 1010 low and there remains concern in Europe (piigs), Middle East (democracy!), & USA (Debt & the printing presses)


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billt
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 08:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If Andrew's 21 March holds firm, I am expecting that will be (iii) – v – 3, target @ 1360 - 75....

I am sure there will be other Delta tops between now and June to deal with 3 of 5, and some further higher highs throughout wave 5.

$SPXA50R & $TRAN and other indicators are printing out disturbing divergences, but I sense they are acting as the warning bells to a much bigger drop later in the year.


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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 08:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks fir that FA news Bill.

I must admit I get very little time these days to look at FA, but it's
great both the FA and TA suggest similar conclusions.

As mentioned before the next MLTD and SLTD point is due June.
At the end of the day though it will be the Monthly Cycles that
will quantify this when we review it again in June to see if the trend
is at risk or if it will persist...

Cheers


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rdumas
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Hi Andrew,

Very interesting post on the SLTD stuff. We certainly live in interesting times.

Hi Bill,

My SPX target levels are around the 1360 levels for the next interim top so we are looking at the same sort of range and like Andrew I still have that peak coming mid March/early April but it is beginning to look like it will be more towards the latter date.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 01:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

I have been doing some research into my cycles analysis and discovered a great phenomenon such that it is possible to determine when either a down or upleg in the market will complete.

This works for any degree of move and I hope to demonstrate it in a new thread that I will start soon based on cycles. Basically once a turn is underway, we are able to project a target for the next turn based on a closing price basis (not intraday moves) with 1.5 to 1.75 % of the actual turn.

This approach is currently suggesting with high probability that the correction that started on the 18th of February completed yesterday on the XAO and last week on the SPX. As such I have resumed trading the long side as of yesterday. In the coming days I will try to estimate potential upside targets.

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 02:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

That sounds fantastic. I really look forward to seeing what you have to say and I'm sure others are too.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 06:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looking forward to your new thread Andrew.

Sounds like you may have unearthed a beauty!

cheers

Bill


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ehmu
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 01:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew:


skyhawk wrote on Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 02:46 pm:

I have been doing some research into my cycles analysis and discovered a great phenomenon such that it is possible to determine when either a down or upleg in the market will complete.

This works for any degree of move and I hope to demonstrate it in a new thread that I will start soon based on cycles.




Exciting news about your plan for a new thread. Thanks for all your cycles work.


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 07:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

Please note that I have started a new thread called Fixed and Dynamic Time Cycle Analysis.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 08:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Times like these Rudy when EW could need some help by other methodologies such as Cycle Analysis...

If wave 4 - 3 has concluded then we are in 'iii - 5 - 3' already.

Alternatively, if wave 4 is extending, we could have a c leg to follow to reach towards 1275. A Wave 4 triangle finish is off the cards...


Considering the Cycle work to date, it would appear the black count may prevail.




 
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