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ivor
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 03:38 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello All,

I'm an avid reader of a column written weekly by Darryl Morley (Daytrader) in the Melbourne Sun, and also published on line.

Had a bit of spare time for some research this weekend, so thought I'd amuse myself and follow some of his recent trades.

Since September when he bought back into the market, he's completed 52 trades up til his most recent column.

Of the 52 completed trades he logged 21 winners and 31 losers, a win rate of 40%, and obviously a loss rate of 60%.

Didn't bother with recording 4 or 5 recent trades that are still open.
Fairly poor win loss ratio I would say.

However here's the thing -
His bank went up from $267,166
to $305,341
an increase of over 14% with a win ratio of 40%.

Just goes to show money management is the key to making a profit on the stock market.

Regards to all
Ivor


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jaded
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 07:23 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivor,
I haven't read this column very much.When alerted to this Known Expert who at least runs a weekly newspaper column on trading,I put his site on my favorites but have rarely referred to it.

Anyway you are a regular,"avid" reader so can you tell me what criteria he has revealed to make his picks?

I'm aware already that he uses All Ords pivot points to start investing again after any significant downturn ie He only plays when General Market Conditions are favourable.
Basic Trading Technique 101 but which I still have a personal problem "handling".

Reading the latest column,he then favours some Mirror Technique[Like I've seen you espouse Ivor] Isn't this just a variation of Fibionnacci Extension? Probably.

Anyhow I noted he 'tips' Bio/Medical Stocks as well.He goes for the Volatile,Momentum shares and it seems he adopts a purer mechanical technique than I personally am not willing to adopt ie He's merely out there advocating Swing Trading Techniques.

Now as a pundit in a newspaper Swing Trading advocation pure and simple is one of the only ways he can go.
After all he's trying to establish 'credibility' so as to get private clients and he really is not allowed even to private clients to put out any system that goes Buy This,Sell That now in Real Time.Just Do It and don't quibble.Just DO IT and if ya don't? don't whinge or whine to ASIC etc etc do ya follow?

Ivor,it is not unusual whatsoever for pundits like Mr Morley to only have a 30/40% success rate.Their 'trick/joke' is that the 30/40% leads to significant profits vs the 60/70% minor losses ie Gains far outweigh multi losses Significantly.

Ivor d'Mechanicals because they have bought or want to sell their services or system have this low success rate as a Criteria with the proviso that say a Third of their 'picks' will more than cover and return one bragging rights down d'BarbQue.

Note Ivor Mr Morley never returns each year to Base $50,000 capital.He is not writing for they who are or wanna make All their Income from Share Trading ie there is no withdrawal of 'winnings'.
No there is only Compounding over Years of $50grand into what?$300grand?
Does he yearly adjust for Tax on Profits?

He certainly can only achieve 30-40% return because he advocates a system mechanical that is purely TA triggered and requires 'investing' in pretty much every scan share triggered by one's criteria with say $200grand+ kitty.
Mr Morley is NOT a Picker which requires a Reputation for say 60/70% success.

Ivor one has to mirror both his Capital base and techniques.One has to make it one's own method not just open up the paper and coat tail ride cos ya too lazy to work out ya own adaption of a method.

Some who realise this then go on his courses.Sign up for some Morning Briefing Jive at 100's/1000's buck$ subscription.

Ivor all they are really being enlightened about is Stop Loss Trading and it's application is d'KEY along with a bit of advice such as Buy High Sell Higher when the Market is Bull Running.

Such advice to some is WORTH bleeding 1000's as Advice.THEY are that stupid!!
Us penny pinching IC members get it for FREE.We just have to stick with it and not go on Brain Storms getting caught in d'Bottom Drawer.

So anyway Ivor you've read this 'clown' extensively,any Scan Techniques been revealed?
and especially any narrowing,cut out dross methods employed?







" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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ivor
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Monday, March 21, 2011 - 10:59 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Jaded,
You're more or less right in everything you outlined above.
Morley has two classes going Starter at $1495
Advanced $1995
I think for a couple of days or maybe a weekend.
Also has a week long master class, don't know how much that is. Have to apply to find out.
Uses a mirror technique to set targets for his trades.
Checked the technique many times myself and have been surprised how many times it works.
No sign of Eliot or Fibonacci in any of his trades.
Nearly all of his trades are low priced mining shares, and very occasionally an odd one from another sector.
Have doubts whether he actually trades the shares for real, or only paper trades.
Reason being he always buys and sells at the open, and always books trades at the open price.
Even if he buys a share that gaps up, and is fast moving, always gets the open.
Only criteria for share selection that I can determine is that he selects shares that are volatile and have spiked up with volume to set up a pivot point, and buys in next day's open. But he particularly likes shares breaking to new highs. Occasionally states though that he missed the open and puts a higher or lower price in. I think to make it look more legitimate.
And he tries to only trade on a rising market.
Wouldn't like to follow his selections because his success rate is no better than using a dart board.
Point of my post was that with such a poor strike rate he still makes money, which surprised me somewhat.
Also used to follow a pundit called "The Speculator" who was recently writing for the Eureka Report, but you have to pay to get that.It's no better than buying a newspaper IMO. But at least he used to do some research on his picks, hold them for more or less a year, and at year's end went back to his initial $50,000 bank. But last I heard, he had a couple of bad years and lost. But I think he only paper traded as well.
I'm always interested in reading any articles or books about share trading. It's one of my main interests, a main source of income, along with some other investments.
Always find it fascinating to find out about other people opinions about share trading.
Thanks for your interest in my post.

Regards
Ivor


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resillent1
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 10:20 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ivor wrote on Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 04:38 pm:

However here's the thing -
His bank went up from $267,166
to $305,341
an increase of over 14% with a win ratio of 40%.






The aim is to get as far from the breakeven line into profitable territory as possible.

A 40% win percentage with a 4 times win/loss ratio is more effective than a 60% win ratio and a 2 times win loss ratio.

Interesting to read books like Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards. You will see all the greats have an emphasis on their win loss Ratio and most loose more often than they win.

Some who will never be featured in a market wizard book will point out the obvious that the ideal is to increase both the win percentage and the win/loss ratio. But the truth is that one is traded against the other. Maximising Win/Loss ratio is the most potent and easiest to do. Unfortunately thought the majority are obsessed with win percentage for psychological reasons and miss the bigger expectancy picture.

Once you have a system with positive expectancy it’s the number of opportunities and your position sizing that is the fuel to the fire for wealth creation.


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ivor
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 12:45 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Resillient,
Interesting post.
Have recently bought and read a book by Brent Penfold -
The Universal Principles of Successful Trading.
The first of the six principles he outlines in the book is positive expectancy.
He also reproduces the same graph that you've posted above.
Nick Radge also writes along similar lines, but uses Eliot waves a lot.
They more or less say that no one method of stock selection is any better than another. They're just tools to get into the trade. Money management is what counts.

Regards
Ivor


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jaded
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 06:20 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Had a quick read of his 9th March Column.
I see he makes no mention of scans only reinterates this Mirror Bit.
Anyhow I'm going to try and work out his scan techniques.
Just reading my posts you may think I'm using Hindsight but I'm reading his 'picks',noting some of his comments[eg about price action months ago that is supposedly going to be mirrored today...maybe]

Anyhow his ALK pick was I think simply found by New High Scan/Watchlisting.


2 chances to be alerted.Both times not very TA encouraging so when a definite retrace and pivot occurs he buys a few days later.

New High Scan,it's not rocket science.It's not that expert or a secret either.

happy trading


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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toaster
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 07:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jade,

Just found this PDF and it apparently displays some Morley setups. Charts are a little blurred.

http://www.robertbrain.com/members-area/free-access/presentations/trading-case-s tudy-201005-handout.pdf

Regards,
David


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jaded
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 08:58 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings toaster,
Have you been to the actual Home Site of this mob? I tried and got blocked or at least warned off doing so.

If you have,toaster or especially if you subscribe,are a member whatever,tell us/me about it.You know d'Gist?

I see you are a long time member who doesn't post often so I'm hoping to 'bring you in from d'Cold and make a few contribution posts.You profile as a trader 65yo retired so obviously your points of view will be interesting and helpful.

happy trading


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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toaster
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 09:59 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jade,

I know nothing of the site.

Some time ago I can remember seeing some code for the Morley Day Trader scan,just did a quick search, no luck with the code but the PDF came up.

I have used MetaStock software for many, many years, and seem to have trouble changing. IC is an excellent forum and I think posting MS charts would be disrespectful to the forum.

The older I have become the more risk management has played a part in any trade entered. My style of trading is very reserved these days.

I do post charts on my blog "My VST Charts".

If you were unable to open that PDF I can email.
I have very strong virus and firewall checks and had no trouble, I am using Firefox browser.

Just down the road from you at H/Bay.

David


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jaded
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 10:51 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



toaster,
Don't post MetaStock 'stuff'.It is a competitor of Colin's Incredible Charts and a couple of years ago during d'Guru Wars one guru got eliminated because of meta 'promotion'.

That's the one with all those Maths Formulas,isn't it?Very complicated but must be d'Right Stuff just because it is.
I've seen such formulas for scans.Too TOO High Tech Maths for me.Also I think it un necessarily really narrows a Scan especially when volume or indicators are added to a Basic Percent Increase week/3 days or New High Scan.

As for trying to find d'Morley scan,there probably is not only one and perhaps they change in response to differing general market conditions.

We probably over a few weeks pick up some of them here and set out the IC scan parameters to find them in the future

toaster wrote on Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 10:59 am:

The older I have become the more risk management has played a part in any trade entered. My style of trading is very reserved these days.




I'd like to hear more facts,opinion and angles on this,toaster.
keep posting.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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ivor
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 12:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Toaster

If you wish to post charts, you can use a free download of Incredible Charts to post with. Some other posters do that.
I too am interested in your method of trading, particularly if it is risk adverse. We all like that.
Very interested in your ideas etc.
Sounds like you have a lot to offer.


Regards
Ivor


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jaded
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 02:44 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ivor wrote on Monday, March 21, 2011 - 11:59 am:

Have doubts whether he actually trades the shares for real, or only paper trades.
Reason being he always buys and sells at the open, and always books trades at the open price.




Many if not all 'pundits' use the Open price in their theories etc.
It's so say a day job reader will be confident of being able to identify the trade at night and then be able to buy in on the morning.Not much good coming up with trading methods that rely on screen hawking all day as a Real Day Trader may be required to do.

Also seeing as Morley is dealing in low price Mining Shares often and buying say $15 grand worth at a throw,he needs to be Open based so there is a high liklihood his Order Bid is filled completely not partially.

Do you see,Ivor? He's trying to 'educate' using the most plausible example,that is Open for Buy'n'Sell that gives the most accurate reflection for price bought at and sold.
"Faking It" would more be reflected in him always getting always/often the wick tips in his trades.


ivor wrote on Monday, March 21, 2011 - 11:59 am:

I'm always interested in reading any articles or books about share trading. It's one of my main interests,




I find many of the books are out of date,based on past Market Conditions as well as too,too US market orientated.

I prefer articles and writers like your Morley who are dealing in the current,Australian Market.It's unfortunate that these writers [Morley,Guppy,Hull whoever] always have writing/instruction/comment etc as a lead on for Seminars,Courses etc.

Who does these WeekEnd Seminars? What do they really expect to learn?Why do Pilgrims to Mammon so willingly outlay their cash for d'Secret Ways to Wealth[Mammon] often encapsulated in some dang Black Box or 'extracted' at some Master Class 5 grand$$/session with multi sessions and these same pilgrims scorn and slight say the Sceintologists who are,in reality,pulling the same act/scam on d'Gullible.

anyhow,Morley is trying his best to put out a Popular Column.No doubt he is space restricted from doing Deep Theory,he certainly pushes that his is not a Tipping Service but one gets a real suspicion that most of his readers are looking for just that A TIP and then they bleat that he Morley ain't playing Fair.Like they can't buy it when he did what a rip off whinge whine bitch and all that prat attitude jive.

happy trading


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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toaster
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 03:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jade/Ivor,

To take the stress away from trading, and to stop watching the market all day I do the this........

When a system gives an entry/exit at the close of a trading day, enter/exit on the next open.(I don't chase price ever)

Often exiting the next open can give a better price than the previous day around closing time.(Not always)

I make sure the trade is placed before the open to get the open auction price.(I am mostly OK with the opening price)

The Risk Management is calculated by the system, and as I will not be posting any MS charts it becomes a little difficult to explain.

Just lets say you like a $5000 position size, the system will display the recommended percentage to risk, this is calculated on how well the system has performed over time.

ALK shows 41.2% or $2060 to allocate to the trade.
WOR shows 100.0% so the full $5000 is allocated.

The two example stats. are using the same system but the recommended position sizes are very different.

ALK Pull-Back trading Performance Stats.

Profit/Risk Ratio: 4.7 to 1
Total Profit/Profit PA: 342.1% 28.3%
Maximum Risk: 72.9%
Win Rate: 38.5%
Avg Trade Win/Loss Ratio: 3.3 to 1
Total Nr Trades: 78
Avg Trade Duration: 18.0 periods
Avg Time in Trade: 48.2%
Avg Time in Profit/Loss: 30.0% 18.2%
Current Trade Profit: -4.0%

Risk Management

Maximum Risk Target: 30.0%
Current Leverage: 1.0
Recommended Leverage: 0.4
Rec Risk-adj Position Size: 41.2% at 1.0 lev
Stop: 0.63 (13.7%)


WOR Pull-Back trading Performance Stats.

Profit/Risk Ratio: 13.4 to 1
Total Profit/Profit PA: 317.0% 39.7%
Maximum Risk: 23.7%
Win Rate: 50.9%
Avg Trade Win/Loss Ratio: 4.5 to 1
Total Nr Trades: 55
Avg Trade Duration: 17.4 periods
Avg Time in Trade: 47.6%
Avg Time in Profit/Loss: 37.4% 10.2%
Current Trade Profit: -0.1%


Risk Management

Maximum Risk Target: 30.0%
Current Leverage: 1.0
Recommended Leverage: 1.3
Rec Risk-adj Position Size: 100.0% at 1.0 lev
Stop: 24.51 (4.4%)

Hope this helps explain the way I handle risk.

Most times the risk is $200 to $400 per trade.

David


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jaded
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 04:04 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So toaster you're a Mechanical,Systems Trader.
I'm not.I'm discretionary but as such I'm willing to adapt.

Would you give me some further particulars on your individual System?

What is YOUR preferred Parcel Size?
Would you actually only buy a $2000 ish parcel in Alkane while buying only a $5,000 parcel in WOR?

Does your system ever Full $5000 parcel pennies/non Blue Chips? or is your Risk Analysis 'biased' against such Volatility?

We're discussing possible pattern recognition as an entry criteria.Above New High together with Mirror for Target has been 'revealed' as a possible/probable Morley scan method.
Do you have favoured patterns worked into your System?

Using Morley's Column dated 9th March on Alkane I've come up with the following..


so we have the original mirror for getting the 9th of March target of 170.
This didn't fully complete and the next column has not yet become available on the site.

Anyhow there was a retrace and I think another set up for the Mirror effect recently developed giving a 181 target this time.

Now Morley has his own declared trailing Stop Loss method/system based on previous lows or something.
However such lower low stops,in this case at this time aren't much good because the candles have a Wide Range ie the last low is a long way off in Retaining Profits terms.

Also note the candle type,yesterday evening star,today engulfing all over a gap after a Bull Rising Three [whatever] and discretion wise one wouldn't BUY and certainly are encouraged to Sell

but toast can your mechanics handle this? or do you await System Confirmation?

Also I've found ALK is Rare Earths.Does your System have inbuilt 'encouragements' that lets you follow Hot Sectors?
Encourage the Trader to Go with the GOers??

yeah I'm so discretionary as to need,insist on knowing WHAT the Dang Share actually Does not just the maths formula performance on it's past price action.

What it does and how good it does it that's a part of my Risk Management.I say that's not so much FA because,well FA is more to do with Earnings projections and PE ranks etc and my preferred Penny shares have no Earnings and are unlikely to get any while I'm holding them.

Anyway,toaster I appreciate you posting on your Mechanical System setting out parameters on Alkane especially.
I just need those Parcel Size data and info on whether any patterns are programmed into your particular system and if so what ones?


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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toaster
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 04:59 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jade,

I will answer as best I can.

The Pull-Back system is dead simple....Entry is the price falling and closing back below a simple moving average.(Price pulling back)
Exit is the stoploss, exit when hit.

No FA at all.
Nothing fancy or tricky,
No targets or pattern recognition.
Seems the more you stuff into a trading system the worse the performance.

What is YOUR preferred Parcel Size? $5000

Would you actually only buy a $2000 ish parcel in Alkane while buying only a $5,000 parcel in WOR? Yes, very important part of Risk Management.

Does your system ever Full $5000 parcel pennies/non Blue Chips? or is your Risk Analysis 'biased' against such Volatility? Don't do penny stocks so don't know, most often would be way less than the $5000 I am thinking.

In answer to most, if not all of the questions below your chart, No.

This is just a simple robust system that is most useful on the ASX 300 or 500. Not so good on penny stocks, I think.

David


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toaster
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 05:12 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jade,

Regarding buying the open.

This is what I have always done as it eliminates the need to chase the price during the day.

Some tipsters put out a buy alert with an entry price and you see the price jump on the open, and then the chase begins, price spikes up as buyers chase the higher prices.

As the day drawers to a close some normality returns and price retreats to a lower level.

The chaser paid too much, should have bought the open.

David


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ivor
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Toaster / Jaded,

My understanding is that if an order is placed outside trading hours, it has to be at a specific price, not at market. So how do you know what price to place the order at ? I know there's an indicative price, but market on open regularly differs from this price, and market depth alters right on the open.

So if you wait until market opens, then place an at market order, often miss the open price.
My usual tactic is to place my order below market price, and wait to see if it is filled.
If the price moves up on the open, I have a choice to either let the trade go, or switch to an at market order if I really fancy the share.

Perhaps my buying strategy needs a tweak.
What do you think ?

Regards
Ivor


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jaded
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 07:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivor,I don't know about At Market Orders for the Open,I always attend the Auction and bid ABOVE the indicative price in the expectation of Buying the Open.

Two days a week [Tuesday and Thursday] I am not ON Screen for the Open but decades ago you rang your full service broker and just advised him to Buy the Open ie Market Price but they were different days before all this DIY jazz came in and I imagine Market Price bidding would subject a online brokers support staff to abuse about putting d'pilgrim in a big gap open especially that reversed.
They want the DIY convenience but can't handle the ramifications of certain circumstances.

anyway,I practise Being There and matching fast fingers and decision making on d'Hop.Yeah I'm discrete!!
Get's d'Motor Running.One of my jaded few Joys lately.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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toaster
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 07:47 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivor,

I posted a reply to your last question but it seems to have gone up in smoke.

Before the open you will see the previous close, say $5.00
Buyers at say $5.65 and Sellers at $4.65.

If your buying you could put in a buy at say $5.40.

You get filled at what the opening price is.

If the opening price is $5.10, you pay $5.10 not the $5.40

Same goes for selling, if you placed a sell at $4.80 and the price open at the $5.10 you get the $5.10.

Watch the market open for a few days and place some imaginary buys or sell.

This can and will go against you at times, so only trade in your comfort zone.

David


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rockon
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Thursday, March 24, 2011 - 04:44 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Have flicked around Mr Morleys' site a little in the past and can remember him basically explaining his system. I had a flick around this morning trying to find it,but to no avail. Anyone who wants it will have to find it .

From memory, it was from a time when he was 100% in cash and waiting for the market to give him the signal to re enter the fray which could possibly have been around 12-18 months ago ???. Again from memory, he explained this along with other babble over two weeks.

What I did come across was his description of his pivot point in the December 8 issue which may help some.

Never followed this guy so got no idea how he picks his stocks.I attended a (free) lecture in 2003 by Colin Nicholson and he gave me the impression his main scanner was his eyeballs and that he looked at hundreds of charts a week but I imagine scanners have come a long way since then....Hope this helps. Cheers.


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ivor
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Hi Toaster / Jaded,

Thanks for the info re buying at the open. Understand now how to get the open price (if I want it).
Still prefer to buy and sell on the spikes if I can.


toaster wrote on Wednesday, March 23, 2011 - 05:59 pm:

The Pull-Back system is dead simple....Entry is the price falling and closing back below a simple moving average.(Price pulling back)




May I ask what moving average that you use Toaster, and do you then look for any consolidation at the pull back before buying in ?

Regards
Ivor


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toaster
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Thursday, March 24, 2011 - 09:17 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivor,

The moving average periods can vary, about 8 to 14 periods is OK.

So lets say it's a, Simple 12 period Moving Average of the High+Low/2. [Mov((hi+lo)/2,12,S)]

Any system I use is Mechanical, well almost, I do check the S&P 500 over-nite action and close.
Also make sure the chart trend in the up direction,and mostly only ASX 300 stocks.

I am not a good chart reader, and don't always see what other do at first glance.

Sometimes my perception of chart action is what I am wanting to see, rather than what is actually playing-out on the chart.
OR
I impose a favorable outcome,and pay little notice to the negative aspects.

Over time I have fallen into the mechanical grove, and I am comfortable with that, I don't criticize the way others trade, and just enjoy the relaxed life style.

David


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ivor
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Thursday, March 24, 2011 - 10:23 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Toaster,

Thanks for your response.

If you have a bit of time, you might like to have a look at a web site -
www.swing-trade-stocks.com

A number of people on the forum use it as the basis of their TAZ trading systems.

Similar to your posting above.

There are a lot of interesting ideas on the website about trading.

Regards
Ivor







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qed
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Sunday, May 08, 2011 - 11:46 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



morning all, a helpfull gem I actually copied from Morley's column
PIVOT POINT EXPLANATION
The first thing to remember is that this is a reversal pattern, therefore it needs the share or index to be moving in an established trend so there is something to reverse.Two candles are needed on the chart toform the pivot point .The first candle is the one with the lowest LOW (or highest hi on an uptrend )
If the next candle actually closes above the high of the candle that formed the lowest lo then a pivot is formed .
Had the next candle made a loer lo then we would have had to wait for the following candle to see if it closed above the hi of the candle now making the lo.
When the pivot point is formed with two consecutive candles it is "clean pivot point "
If after a PIVOT point is formed if there are inside candles then the more there are the weaker the immediate rally will be .

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