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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through March 16, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 16, 2011

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rdumas
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 09:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

From a cycles perspective, the scenario that makes the most sense to me is that we are still forming wave 3 which should top out sometime mid March/early April.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, March 05, 2011 - 07:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ascending Triangle / Flat Top

After the initial correction last night, I sense we have completed minor wave 4 of the third with an ascending triangle with a flat top.

The target for minor wave 5 is 1332 + 38 = 1370 within the next week or two.

The alternative bullish count, has SPX still to complete a complex minor wave 4.

The alternative bearish count has us poised for a wave iii of 3 down!













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rdumas
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Sunday, March 06, 2011 - 11:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

From an Cycles analysis perspective I agree with your positive scenario. From a purely EW perspective it could be either a positive or negative scenario. In the positive scenario I anticipate wave 3 to complete mid March to early April.










I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, March 06, 2011 - 12:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

Based on the Cycle Analysis & the positive US fundamentals (increasing GDP/decreasing Unemployment/booming Consumer Confidence/etc) , I tend to agree that the 'Positive Scenario' outcome has the highest probability at this time.

I see two other minor alternatives to the option that iv of 3 has completed.

1. Ascending Triangle may have one final leg down in an ‘abc e wave’ leg to gap support @ 1308. The move down from ‘d’ was in a 5 waver which suggests we may have another leg down to complete the picture.

2. Fuller abc correction (red count). If 1302.58 breaks, the fuller abc Wave iv-3 completion comes into play, with targets in the 1273-1284 range: (c) = (a) = >1282; 38% = >1279; Astro Boy’s Mars Bars @ 1284, & Saturn @1273; wave iv range >1275.

The Fuller abc correction does not sit well with Andrew’s cycle count so I am discounting that for now.

Target for Wave 3 remains @ 1370. Interestingly, Astro Boy’s Mars Bars sit @ 1374.

Just to keep everyone on their toes, the 5 wave pattern down off 1332 (& the 1344 initial drop) also supports the Negative Scenario, for the wave i of 3 down...and we have had 5 waves off the 1010 low! We have severe resistance overhead on Polly's Long Range Planets, and right on a pesky Martian too!










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rdumas
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Sunday, March 06, 2011 - 03:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

For the reasons given in the Cycle Analysis thread I agree with you that there probably won't be a "fuller" abc correction. I would be surprised if it wasn't over by COB on Monday or the latest by COB Tuesday.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011 - 10:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With a series of lower highs and lower lows over the past two days the downtrend continues.

Although wave iv of 3 could have completed last night at the 1303, in an abcde triangle, perhaps the fuller abc correction to 1275 is still on the cards.

The move down from 1327 was in a 5 wave impulse, which is perhaps 1 of c.

Targets remain in the 1273-1284 range: (c) = (a) = >1277; 38% = >1279; Astro Boy’s Mars Bars @ 1284, & Saturn @1273; wave iv range >1275.






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billt
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011 - 10:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Perhaps XJO is in a similar position as SPX?

XJO target c.4700? wave c = wave a






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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011 - 10:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

It is entirely possible but I am of the view that the current decline will either complete today or at most within the next 3 days. So far the Conti counts for the XXJ and WBC are still in play and if they are spot on we should have the bottom in place today. As you know they have an accuracy of +/- 3 days so I may have to wait.

Conti cycles are no different to any other TA tool like previous levels of resistance and support of Fibonacci levels. They represent higher than normal probability turning points until they are invalidated.

If things take a turn for the worse then the Fib extension levels that I would be looking at are those I posted yesterday, namely the 23.6% Fib extension level of 4740.5 or the 38.2% Fib extension level of 4716.4.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011 - 11:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Could this be the start of a rally or is it just forming the third wave of an ABC corrective pattern?





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011 - 12:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX Currently walking the 34ema plank. Showing considerable weakness, as per notes.




_____ n a m a s t e


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billt
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Thursday, March 10, 2011 - 08:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Grinding out this wave (iv)....

A few things I am watching:

- will the IHS provide the 'oomph' to head us out of this triangle, after another play at the fibs @ 1325 & 1313?

- will we shoot south to 1275 in an abc move?

- will Saudi Arabia's 'Day of Rage' on Friday cause havoc?

- will 'SPX Weekly' well overbought RSI/MACD/STO prove fatal?






Cycle Analysis & US Economic Fundamentals say that we head north.....


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 10, 2011 - 10:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



One thing for sure Bill. We are coiling up for a large move in some direction.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, March 10, 2011 - 12:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No time to comment and probably no need to comment. One picture is .........





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, March 10, 2011 - 01:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO


Okay, the wave equality target of 4699.3 has now been reached when the index found 4697.1. If it is a corrective wave then this is the most likely level for a bounce. Whilst lower prices are still acceptable, if we got down to the 161.8% range of wave a (4597.3) then the chances of this not being a corrective wave at the current level would increase dramatically. The likelihood in this case is that we would be seeing the first 3 waves of an impulse wave rather than a simple 3 wave move. That would have all sorts of bearish possibilities.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 05:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With a few hours to go SPX has taken out the triangle low.

BB Widths show that the correction may have some legs in it yet. Until the green BB width finds the next trough, prices have every chance to keep falling.

My original thought of an abc may be playing out.





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billt
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 08:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX closed just on the 50d MA.

Currently iv of 3 corresponding in time and price to ii of 3 - a little more to go?





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rdumas
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 08:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

We were going through a similar thought process. The labels shown are only those for the 3rd wave.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 08:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I've drawn in waves 1 and 2 to clarify my last post. As I suggested, it's much along the same lines as yours.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 11:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all,

Been busy of late and no time to post.
Not sure about all the cycle and time analysis stuff.
Purely on the technicals and volume, it looks like an ABC on our market down to target 4450 by May.

Cheers
MM


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ehmu
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 11:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Da vinci stikes a note in the musical charts tune.

"Name that tune contest"






_____ n a m a s t e


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gdd3
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 12:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Love the "Fibo Harmonics", Ehmu....and this could explain why we are (the XJO) is 'leading the way' as our Daily Chart is now looking decidedly different(over the past two weeks) to the SPX that Rudy just posted above.






Rudy, its just downright tooo haarrrd to get a clear EWC on the XJO to try to 'varify' your EWC above on the SPX...but I'm trying to find one. All I'm comfortable atm with is the count I place in the ASM sub-thread yesterday for targets in the short-term into the 4627-4624 range but even that is now looking too short!



....and now...

I think we are still trying to find the wave 3 bottom shown on that chart so levels will now have to revised down somewhat to somewhere in the 4620 -4570 confluence of support bands shown in orange on the Daily chart here...but thats not going to look too good going forward as we have broken well below the 150EMA, the medium-term channel support and below the up trendline from the Mar. 09 low(not shown here).

Cheers and hold on tightly!

Dolphin}


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billt
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 01:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Dolphin

It will be interesting to get Rud'meister's view on XJO.

The overall XJO count is full of wyz's - most confusing!

The recent XJO correction south looked initially to be an abc. The problem now is that wave c looks to be double that of wave a. Rather than a corrective abc, it puts us in the land of a full 5 wave trip south, with the possibility that the recent top was a major one. The recent capitulation looks to be within a single set of tram lines, so perhaps wave iii has yet to complete?







SPX on the other hand is still comfortably holding a iv of 3 pattern as I posted earlier today. The concern here however is that indicators such as $SPXA50R have now broken the MA200, which begins to suggest this also may be the start of something much larger. We have had 5 waves off the 1010 low, so it has to be a consideration.

(SPX wave count iv of 3 highted against $SPXA50R):








What supports further upside on SPX is Andrew's Cycle Count which is 'hard up' and of course US Economic Indicators (GDP, Consumer Confidence, etc).



My own feeling is that SPX has higher highs to come, and therefore I can only feel that XJO will follow (but a bit more gingerly).


SPX might head to 1275 before turning. On that basis that is another 1.5%. What happens in the Middle East may greatly effect the outcome.


I have shorted the correction south via my juiced ETFs on the 'idiot' system, so if it wants to go lower I'll be cheering it on!


Bill


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rdumas
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 02:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I've been out most of the day on a long lunch with some ex work mates. Much better than watching the carnage in the market.

I find the EW count for the XJO very difficult because the rally since July appears to be corrective rather than impulsive. Hence I would not even attempt an EW count on it other than for very short term where I can see a clear corrective pattern or impulsive pattern.

What I can look at though is the LEVEL of pattern in play. We can see by the size of fall that the LEVEL is at the red level rather than the blue level. Hence we have ourselves a higher level fall than what may be appearing in the SPX.





It is possible that I have the wrong level in my labelling for the SPX. If it kept going, I would believe that the SPX had already formed the higher level 3rd wave and we were currently in the higher level 4th wave. That is the sort of level that I think we have in play in the XJO at present.

The worst case is that the high on the 17th February was in fact Primary wave Circle B and we are now in the early part of the catastrophic Primary wave Circle C. I am hopeful that this is not the case because I am long at present with a fair amount of my SMSF money. That scenario is not consistent with Andrew's long term cycle charts.

Andrew published a cycle chart on the 24th February for both the SPX and the XJO. The chart below was the one the XJO showing the 1,2 and 3 standard deviation bands for the index.

At the time he published the chart the XJO was a bit over 1 Std Deviation above the mean. I expect that it would spring back to somewhere between the 'mean' and 1 Std Deviation below the 'mean'. I have drawn a red line at the 4500 level and I looking at the chart the 'mean' is probably near the 4550 (lower boundary of red channel on first chart).




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 03:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy and I concur...basically what you have said and shown above is what I have in my last post above...to try to place a 'comfortable' EWC on the XJO other than in the very short-term is frugal.

I am also very weary of the XJO going below from near current levels and particularly the 4620 - 4570 band I have shown(in orange) on my Daily chart posted above....otherwise that "worst-case" scenario you've mentioned comes closer to reality!

First thing first; lets see what unfolds tonight offshore and Monday/Tuesday here!

Have a Good weekend.

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 03:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

You too mate.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 03:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO has been a bit of a mystery to me - it hasn't been an easy EW exercise to follow.


Picking up on Rudy's idea of 'the LEVEL of pattern in play', perhaps the following diagram might help?

This IS NOT an EW count, but an illustrated numbering sequence that may give some thought.

To my mind, the current XJO correction looks like it has morphed beyond the scale of the two previous corrections shown as wave ii of 3 and iv of 3. As Rudy has suggested perhaps it might run deeper to match that of Wave 2, being 440 points. This would produce a target at 4505.

Counting the 'squiggles' doesn't help that much as prices are free falling within a tight band width...and wave iii of c will not normally complete until prices exit the band.

4551 provides support, but if that doesn't hold there isn't much to stop it until it reaches my notional trend line...if this eventuates, XJO will give up much of the gains since June last year.








Inevitably the lead will come from Wall Street. Many have already called the top for SPX, as there is a vast array of TA to support their claim.

Cycle Analysis & FA says otherwise....


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market_mad
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 08:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

I'd be extremely wary of being long in this market. We are definitely leading the pack down, just as we lead the pack up in July last year. Dow and "500" will move down aggressively over the coming weeks.

Find it interesting that you are basing your long positions on long term cycle analysis done by Andrew. Good luck mate but this week we have seen 3 of the biggest volume days in the past 6 months on our futures market and I don't believe these guys are looking for 100 point moves. I believe we are heading down to 4450 first up but below that it gets very ugly.

Cheers
MM


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p3t3
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 09:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

I'd be extremely wary of being long in this market.


MM

I'd agree caution is warranted, but I'm much less inclined to panic just yet. The nature of the move strongly suggests the unwinding of US$ carry-trade longs by the hedge community, particularly that part of the community sponsored by the big US banks.

My most important "tell" - Shanghai - isn't showing anything like the same sort of weakness. The hedge community has much less access to the Shanghai index than to ours.

In the ODB thread I also showed that even the other resource producers aren't showing the same sort of weakness as our market, nor are the rest of the Regional indices.

Even the European indices, for all the problems faced by European banks, are not showing the same sort of weakness on display here.

My conclusion is that the hedge community is doing what it always likes to do - stirring up volatility so they are in a position to profit from it (they have fewest opportunities in flat markets). Ours is a prime target because of its small capitalisation - compared with the major international indices.

If I see genuine indications of serious longer-term decline in demand from China I'll re-assess. Until then I'll try to maintain a balanced view.

just my view
p3t3


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billt
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Saturday, March 12, 2011 - 07:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Guys - you could all be correct!

I'm pleased my new years resolution was to use the 'idiot system' and not to double guess the market!

My own feeling is that SPX is carving out iv-3, but I would not be surprised if I was wrong:

-US GDP is still up;
-US Consumer Confidence is booming;
-US QE2 still in play until June & more to come to fuel the system;
-US Transports have not confirmed the bearish count (as yet);
-Cycle Analysis

There are zillions of reasons why the reverse is true too.


Far too many options (but there is one for everyone):

1. Triangle abcde: (black count) completing (d) - oops (e) got chopped from the image

2. ABC Corrective: (green count) , either (c) has completed (c)=618(a) OR (c) to complete @1271 with (c) = (a)

3. 1344.07 was the Top! (red count) currently in a wave 3 of iii of 3 down - Monday is firework day? (look at the pattern just before the Flash Crash - any similarities?)







For XJO: it will follow SPX, but without being on 'tiger blood', we will limp along.

-GDP is still up (just);
-Consumer Confidence is flat;
-We have no stimulus in play & only uncertain carbon tax & resources tax to look forward to..


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ehmu
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Saturday, March 12, 2011 - 08:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Attached daily and weekly chart for NYSE using idiot settings. (pretty well all index charts have a similar look).

The daily price and MACD have both broken down.

The weekly price hasn't given up yet, but the MACD for-runner has crossed.






_____ n a m a s t e


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ehmu
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Saturday, March 12, 2011 - 08:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The two attached charts for the NYSE show a different method of trend assessment along with the W%R. I like the unemotional test of the idiot charts, but get a better sense of what may happen from these charts.

The price has broken the short term up trend (blue), is testing the medium term up trend (yellow) and the long term trend support is below the current price around 7900.

I notice that the daily 144ema is around 7900, and unless I'm wrong, 7900 won't violate your current EW count.

I didn't show it very well, but the price is bouncing off of the 13ema on the weekly chart. This suggests that we could bounce here using the 13ema weekly as support. Otherwise the patterns suggest to me that we're headed for about 7900.






_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Saturday, March 12, 2011 - 01:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Whilst there are some pretty negative signs, I still have a leaning towards a positive period between now and June. I personally am expecting the SPX to go down to 1275 and the XJO to go to 4500 before we get a rally.

Whether that rally turns into the last significant leg up in the March 2009 rally or a wave 2 at some level in a declining market remains to be seen.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Sunday, March 13, 2011 - 06:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everyone,
Could the SPX & XJO markets have broken away from each other from Feb 21 , ie) XJO is creating a 5 wave move to start the larger C wave whilst the SPX is doing another 4th wave which could just be a 4th of the 5th (5th starting from 1175 on Dec 1 (see chart) if the elliot wave count I have is correct. 12000 seems to be holding for now on the Dow Jones & the wave structure seems to be more corrective than impulse . So XJO could possibly retrace into a 2nd wave in due course if it ends up creating 5 waves to around 4500 whilst at the same time the SPX finishes its 5th of 5th. Any thoughts??




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billt
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Sunday, March 13, 2011 - 07:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Masters

Rudy's Weekend Wrap summarised Rudy's & 4G's ideas in a complete manner.

In respect to SPX, the current correction feels to be at the same level as the November correction. The correction has a similar depth of pullback in price and time. On that basis I feel we are still completing iv of 3. However, as we have completed 5 waves off the 1010 low, we cannot rule out that the top is in. My post 703 above gives a longer explanation.


In terms of XJO, it has not followed an 'easy to read' EW path for many months. I would not like to pass comment on where XJO is at, other than to say that I expect it to follow SPX in general terms with larger pullbacks and less aggressive rallies.


It is interesting to note that in EWA ($USD denominated 'iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund'), EWA has followed a more logical EW progression.

EWA seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Australian market, as represented by the MSCI Australia Index. All the usual suspects are represented, with ASX 10 making up 60% of the fund.

What is interesting is that EWA is showing a more obvious EW path than XJO. Perhaps a clear 5 wave move off the May 2010 low. Wave 2 & Wave 4 of C look to be in the same level in this EW count....

There is a significant negative divergence set up on many indicators suggesting that we may have concluded the rally? I certainly wouldn't be throwing dollars at a chart like that!

I guess I answered a different question Masters! ....








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billt
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Sunday, March 13, 2011 - 08:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A more precise response to your query:


“Could the SPX & XJO markets have broken away from each other from Feb 21”

- it is possible, XJO doesn’t have the luxury of QE2 at the moment, so anything is possible. My chart on EWA perhaps gives some credence to your thought. Check out the EWA:$SPX (weekly) indicator on the first chart above. My own feeling is that it is unlikely.



“XJO is creating a 5 wave move to start the larger C wave”

- The wave unfortunately looks impulsive down rather than corrective. Rudy addressed that in his Weekend Wrap as well. I tend to agree with Rudy’s thoughts.



“Whilst the SPX is doing another 4th wave which could just be a 4th of the 5th (5th starting from 1175 on Dec 1 (see chart)”

-If 1175 was the end of wave 4, the recent top concluded the rally. The issue here is that the correction appears to be at a different level than the August correction. Many EW counts have us already completing this rally at 1340, and expect a rapid fall any moment.....Cycle Analysis & FA suggests otherwise!



“So XJO could possibly retrace into a 2nd wave in due course if it ends up creating 5 waves to around 4500 whilst at the same time the SPX finishes its 5th of 5th.”

- My own feeling is that XJO will follow SPX, by and large, for the next period. If SPX completes the correction and heads north, I feel SPX will be in v of 3. My target for the full rally would be 1440, which is a 10% rally from here. XJO might have a run at 5000. If the SPX top is in, stand back from the exits, as iii of 3 of 3 DOWN is waiting to pounce!!


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billt
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Sunday, March 13, 2011 - 08:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

Thanks for the charts....My Bear ETFs are still on a 'buy' on the Daily Idiot, so I hang in there for now.


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billt
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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Excellent responses. You have come a long way in your EW analysis. There isn't any more that I can teach you about the subject so well done. You definitely get the Dubya EW award this week.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Monday, March 14, 2011 - 07:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy, Masters, everyone.

I'm not looking at XJO but I am at XAO.

Without looking at the structure below what I'm talking about, I see wave 1 terminating at 4641.3 on 21 June, Wave 2 at 4213 on 6 July, wave 3 at 5032 on 17 Feb, and Wave 4 today at 4650.8, with wave 5 starting now.

This could all break down tomorrow but currently wave 4 is clear of wave 1 but only just. If it breaks we probably won't have a wave 5.




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billt
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Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 08:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Ken

The next few days may invalidate the count as you say.

What is less compelling is that:

- wave 1 looks corrective;
- wave 2 looks impulsive;
- wave i-3 looks corrective;
- wave iii-3 looks corrective;
- wave (iii)-v is less than (i)-v.





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billt
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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 09:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I agree with your comments about Ken's post. Whilst the move up is a 5 wave pattern, it is more consistent with a corrective pattern [WXY(XX)Z] than an impulse pattern [12345] due to the non impulsive nature of his waves iii and v of 3.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 12:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Best we leave the aussie indices in the corrective pattern [WXY(XX)Z]....

XJO perhaps flicked up (4)- C in the last few trading sessions? How does the hourly charts look?

If we push through the multiple fib targets @ 4550-60’s, the next level is 4534, (C = A*2.00 = 330 target 4534.3)


4504.5 aligns with the lower trend line from the 21 June 10 correction. Below that there is Gap Support @ 4501.8.


If this doesn't hold then the next series of fibs @ 61.8% sit at 4470.


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billt
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Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 01:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



In one hour all those levels have gone! 4495 as I post...

Fibs @ 61.8% sit at 4470, then 4314.


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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 02:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Been out spending my hard earned with my wife today. Just got back to see the carnage. As I see it the 61.8% Fib retracement of the range I have detailed in the following chart is 4469.34.

The index has been down to 4479.7 so far.




Based on the 60 minute chart below we appear to have made a 5 wave move down and it could possibly be either the end of wave c as indicated in the chart of the end of the 3rd wave of a large impulse wave down. Either way I would suggest the possibility of a bit of a bounce at this stage.

The LOI still hasn't given a buy as yet but hopefully it shouldn't be far off.




Note the positive divergence on the 3 minute chart.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 05:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I keep thinking back to EWA ($USD denominated 'iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund')- see my posts 706 to 709 above. $USD inward investment into the Aus' market must surely now be tested.

Nikkei is now in their major C leg south - hard to see them coming back north anytime soon.

We need to carefully watch that this doesn't turn into a 5 waver south, and the beginning of our major C leg too! The 5-3-5 pattern looks complete for an abc correction. Any further leg south below today's low will be very bearish....







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mastersl46
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Hi Guys, with the latest wave breaking the wave 1 high of around 4600 set in august 2010 , if this wave was a 3 wave move thats part of the former move from 4182 - 4945 it would clearly cancel out this thought that this is a 4th wave, would it not? A retest of 4650 may be on the cards (38.2% of 4182 - 4945) before another wave to 4470 (61.8% of 4182 - 4945)creating a 5 wave move down. Does anyone else have a similar view? Wave 1 = 145 (4945 - 4800)so Wave 5 could get to at least 4500 if the 4th takes us back up to 4650? Doesnt this move down suggest that we are more likely to be in our major C wave down right now? Any thoughts?


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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 08:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Mastersl46,

As Bill mentioned in his post, the EW count for the XJO is not easy and because of this I have hesitated to even provide one. When an EW count becomes too complex then it becomes an academic exercise and doesn't provide much value to investors.

The legs in the rally from the 21st May 2010 have clearly not been impulsive and hence we should not be viewing them as impulse waves. If you read Bill's response to Ken's view of the XAO you will see what some of the reasons were.

So if it's not impulsive then we have to think of the pattern as being corrective. The chart below is a possible wave count that you could use if you really feel that you need one.




I certainly wouldn't use it as the basis for investing. Other methodologies are far more useful for trading this index at this point in time.

Like Bill, I find the EW count for the S&P500 much easier to follow and hence I view the XJO as a 'non supercharged' version of the S&P500. I can't see the XJO going in opposite directions to the S&P500 for great lengths of time. Whilst they are not identical, there are similarities.

By the way, If I were using EW in isolation from all other methodologies on this index then I would have considered that the high on the 17th February was the termination of Primary wave Circle B. It's only the addition of other methodologies that suggests to me that there is another up leg to go.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, March 15, 2011 - 11:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Masters

I have to agree with Rudy....

It is clear that we are in a corrective pattern [WXY(XX)Z] on XJO.

Any suggestion of a 12345 pattern on XJO has to be sidelined.

All EW is useful for in terms of XJO is the overall larger framework as Rudy uses in his post 4666 or shorter timeframes such as his post 4664. The larger timeframe count needs to be very subjective once you are within a significant corrective pattern. Like Rudy, I certainly would not use it to trade.

I am trading the US markets, so my focus is on SPX.

SPX has produced picture perfect EW set ups for many months, so it is a lot easier to read. At the moment SPX is carving out iv-3.

Supporting that count:

-US GDP is still rising;
-US Consumer Confidence is booming;
-US QE2 still in play until June & more to come to fuel the system;
-US Transports have not confirmed the bearish count (as yet);
-Cycle Analysis;
-Astrological Analysis


Giving grounds for real concern:

-Japan;
-Middle East/North Africa;
-Europe Sovereign Debt;
-US Unemployment;
-US Debt & Deficit;
-etc, etc...


If SPX trends lower beyond the trend lines, or if any of the above issues change it will have me questioning the count.










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billt
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 06:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Another possibility?





 
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