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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through March 14, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Non Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 14, 2011

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rdumas
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 07:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX Update

Whilst there are quite a few indicators suggesting that the bounce we got in the SPX last night may only be a lull in the decline, my XJO Delta continues to anticipate a reversal at about this time. It would be pretty unlikely that a reversal would occur in the XJO without at least a slow down in the rate of fall or better still a bounce in the SPX.

The following daily chart shows us that the SPX fell through the medium term channel but has recovered its position within the channel. This is certainly a healthier sign than if it had not been able to do that.





The following weekly chart shows us that the index is located in the middle of the longer term channel at this phase of the cycle indicating that the rally from the March 2009 low is still in a healthy state.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, February 25, 2011 - 03:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The two previous SPX corrections lasted 16 days.

If this pattern repeats perhaps that would complete this leg down by mid March? Could your cycle count suggesting a high, be actually a low? 'Wave a' of this correction looks a similar pattern as previous corrections...









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rdumas
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Saturday, February 26, 2011 - 07:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

We can never rule anything out when we are dealing with the market as we are dealing with probabilities and not certainties. Based on my Delta studies though I don't believe that this will occur. I still believe that we will rally into mid March/early April and then we will get our 16 day correction (or even slightly longer).


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, February 27, 2011 - 12:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It is interesting to note the major divergence that is occurring in $SPXA50R. Even though the price action within SPX has been making higher highs since October 2010, the percentage of stocks that have been above their 50 day MA has been declining, meaning fewer stocks are participating in the rally over the last couple of months, a sign of weakness and waning momentum.

This is the first time such a major divergence has occurred since the March 09 low....although divergence can last many months, the end of this rally off the March 09 low may perhaps be in sight within the next quarter:





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ehmu
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Monday, February 28, 2011 - 04:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Thanks for the chart and observations regarding weakening markets.

It inspired me to look for rotation, and as usual, I present my half-fast [pun] version. I looked at NYA(broader us) NDX(tech) and TSX(resource).

What I found was that all three mimic the decline that you discussed in the spx (divergence consistent on all markets---I didn't have the facility to check precious metals stocks index separately), so I used the charting program to compare each to the spx, looking for degrees of divergence.

It appears that NYA is rising in comparison, and technology is probably sagging the most in your specified time frame of two months.


ps I did however note that observed individually that the above50dr are all approximately currently bouncing off of their 200dma. Momentarily this could be bullish, no?








_____ n a m a s t e


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billt
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Monday, February 28, 2011 - 01:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal

What has occurred previously with $SPXA50R is that divergence normally sets up at the earliest in Wave 4, or towards the very end of Wave 5.

At the end of the May 09 to April 10 rally $SPXA50R was running high highs mirroring SPX, before reaching a top at 93.2. $SPXA50R rolled south a week or two before SPX completed her finale in April 10...the 'sell' signal was given whilst SPX was completing v of 5 - not a bad 'canary'!

On this rally beginning in July 2010, the divergence set up whilst SPX was in Wave 3 (or what we think is Wave 3?)....

Although other indice are all bouncing off the 200ma, it is odd that fewer stocks are participating in SPX climb to glory, particularly in a Wave 3 event. In a Wave 3 event $SPXA50R should be in the low 90's printing out high highs, not pushing lower.

Perhaps this next rally will push this index back through the declining trend line, however for now, it presents a possible area of concern as SPX tries to edge higher in the coming months.

Just another indicator to help 'The Wall of Worry'...


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ehmu
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011 - 01:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Thanks for the correlation to the historical ew count.

Is it possible that the Jan28 low is the wave 4 in the current rally, and that the feb18 high is the wave 5 of B?


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011 - 07:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Continuing SPX Price Action


Whilst we continue to get various indicators diverging from price, there is no doubting that the price action continues to move up in a strong trend channel.

Last night's price action recovered 70.5% of the decline which starts to put it in a Flat category for any continuing corrective pattern should it occur.

Note that a Flat pattern requires a b wave that recovers at least 70% of an a wave. Any further rally will rule out any type of Zigzag corrective wave possibility and also increases the chance that for the time being the market will trend upwards.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011 - 03:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Price Action

This is the second day that the ASX200 futures have expected a 20 point move on the open and provided very little. I am wondering if we are replicating a somewhat similar period as the previous one highlighted in the following intraday chart.

In both cases we had

1) the BBs starting to compress
2) the price action at the MBB
3) the W%R10 in a similar position (the previous one was slightly more bullish
4) the line oscillator in a similar position

The BBs are suggesting a reasonable sort of a move in the short term. I personally hope that it's up.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011 - 03:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

My own thoughts are not dissimilar to Rudy's...the higher order of probability is that we are in for a further push north. My own feeling is that we have commenced v of 3, with a completion of this two year zig zag in June. The degree of pullback in the latest correction suggests to me that this is lower order pullback - a iv of 3 correction. If we head below 1275 in the coming week, I would reappraise the count.

However, Rudy & Andrew's Cycle work looks very convincing that we have some more upside to go.

On the FA side, US GDP is still printing out high highs quarter by quarter, and until that changes I see no reason for this rally to complete.

It would appear we have completed i of v of 3 overnight, so we should retreat for the wave ii of v in the coming days. If the full wave iv of 3 abc corrective still occurs we may head back to 1275, but the odds favor that we have commenced v of 3 @ 1294.


The alternative view is that the 5 wave count off the 1010 low has completed, and we have completed the two year zig zag.... stand back safely as a 'wave iii of 1 down' is about to occur. Unfortunately, $SPXA50R gives this option some credibility - hence some caution is needed.


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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011 - 03:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The final close on the XJO is rather ominous in the short term at least.

As you can see we had a 3 wave move up and it has now failed. If we get a sharp move down then it means that we have that abc corrective pattern in play and 4711 comes into play for the bottom. Based on the first wave down it would probably complete early next week.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011 - 04:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

XJO certainly looks corrective off the 4799, but XJO has often in the past put in corrective looking printouts, when SPX was bouncing along in an impulsive wave iii of 3 event! XJO has been difficult to read in the past 6 months, with numerous 'corrective' rallies!





XJO still has yet to post a 'buy' on the ema 3 & 10 crossover, whilst SPX just got there last night, as did US Small Caps $IUX & Mr Apple AAPL...

SPX should give us a further clue tonight....perhaps a trip to 1307 before a further wave iii north?





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ehmu
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 01:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks to R & B for the full meal deal on XJO.

And this am SPX hovering just above the 13ma. I don't hold out much hope for a drop though, Bernanke and Geithner both speaking this am and one little flick of their baton could pop the price 20 points.


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 11:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys,

This comment probably is more appropriate in the EW thread but as you can see from the decline today, this wave is more likely a wave 3 rather than a wave c.

If that is true then there is a lot further to fall and the top we had in February may well have been a significant top.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 03:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MSB...may be this should be in its own thread but though because of its recent "Rudimeizer's W%R14" 'BUY' indication I could bring it too your attention and comments.

Why MSB? Well in my further research on a recent TAZ pick, SDL(nanotech/pharmaceutical)listed both here and US I came across MSB(another Pharm'l also listed here and the US)and wonders if there was any 'connection'. Well, apart from Chart similarities(bouncing from good chart support yesterday and giving a TAZ type buy signal) couldn't find anything!

MSB's chart, apart from this short-term buy signal, is giving mixed signals in that it is unclear whether we are in the early stages of a resumption of the uptrend after initial failure ~ mid Feb. or we will meet resistance somewhere betx $5.60-$5.90 and fall away to test the 'breakaway gap' near the $4.00 mark!

I include both charts SPL(from TAZ Thread) and MSB for comments.

MSB...



SPL...



Cheers
Dolphin


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sway
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 06:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dolphin

I think you'll find that SDL is something to do with iron ore. I've been working on my FA!

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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p3t3
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 07:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




sway wrote on Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 07:16 pm:

SDL is something to do with iron ore


....ummmm

SPL, not SDL ?


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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 07:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

With the UBB at $5.67 and the W%R10 in overbought territory wouldn't you think that in the short term there would be limited upside?





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 04:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO bouncing

"Wednesday, March 02, 2011 - 11:28 am:

From XJO string
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The old hag is now bouncing off of the 89ema, but it doesn't look hopeful with the rsi and tmo now falling below the mid point. "





I also noticed on the previous rally price visited the 89ema twice before breaking down on the third excursion to test the 144ema.

Price intersection of the 144ema will occur around 4720 in the event of further price breakdown.






_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 06:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Looks like that 34 EMA is acting as overhead resistance whereas it was acting as support for much of the time in the past. A breach of this may be a useful signal to indicate when the rally is on in earnest again.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 06:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Yes, I agree. I currently use the 21&34 on the way up and the 13&21 on the way down.


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 07:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sounds like a good system Hal.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 07:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Medium Term Price Action For SP500

The line oscillator is approaching levels where previously bounces occurred and the SPX price action has held the short term blue trend line. We really need to see that oscillator turn to confirm that a temporary bottom is in place. We can see that on past occasions the oscillator did actually turn at that bottom of the price action. The fact that it has not done so this time raises some doubts.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 02:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



$SPX:$GOLD

SPX priced in Gold!

SPX may have rallied hard off the March 09 low, but the not in value to the shiny stuff.

This chart is dropping like a stone, as the $USD loses value, and Gold reaches new highs...as does Silver.

AGQ (Double Silver) is the trade - up 70% since the end of January...





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gdd3
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Thursday, March 03, 2011 - 04:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy(P3T3 and Sway)...

Re:---MSB....Sorry guys, missed all your 'postings' on on MSB.

Sway, sorry about the 'typo' error but I did post the correct chart...SPL(thanks to our 'resident' secretary, p3t3, this had been noted!).

Rudy, one day's action(today) has 'met' all of our short-term price resistance levels mentioned($5.60, $5.67 and $5.90)in one foul swoop. I note that it closed right on the older of the two trend channels(yellow) I had drawn but today's high was stopped by the mid-range line on the newer(white) one...thats how I 'selected' $5.90 when I posted yesterday).

Where to from here; well as I'm sure your W%R10 will show more so now is that, at the very least, we'll probably get a bit consolidation betx today's high and $5.60 suppt. B4 real price increas....if it is to occur!

SDL(whoops, SPL)...shows an isolated 'spinning' top(or Doji)that, incidently peaked today right at the 78.6% fibo retracement level of the last swing down, warns of indecision and the possibility of buying interest 'drying-up' so holders must be alert for early trading action tomorrow morning for a clue for the direction of the next 10 or 15 points.

Updated chart of MSB...



Updated chart of SPL...


Cheers

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 03:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I forgot to congratulate you on your excellent call on MSB.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Friday, March 04, 2011 - 05:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy,

Got out earlier today after...

1)...Notice of ASX300 listing now out(B4 mkt opened)and she 'gapped-up' on confirmation,

2)...MSB reached the top line of the (white)Channel very early on and immediately started fall away.

3)...(both)W%R's in overbought territories(and now at stumps turned down because of close level).

I still think she may have another upleg in this move judging by the intraday 10min chart(EW)...3rd insert below.

....








I note also that FGE, MCE and RMS, all stocks that other ODB followers have been trading/following recently have also made it into the ASX300 and could help explain their recent runs as well. EQN, another of interest here, is now in the ASX100.


Have a good, and apparently busy weekend!

Dolphin

(Message edited by robin on March 21, 2011)


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rdumas
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Monday, March 07, 2011 - 09:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Fibonacci Levels based on the last 2 Significant Ranges

We may find support and/resistance levels around these Fibonacci levels. At time of posting the XJO was at 4830 (ie, near red 50% Fib level).





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, March 07, 2011 - 10:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Medium XJO Trends Remain Positive

Whilst the market appears to be whip sawing all over the place, from a medium term perspective (9 months) it is in fact holding strong within the upper portion of the red channel.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Monday, March 07, 2011 - 11:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

Isn't that chart displaying a rising wedge which will result in a break back to the bottom od the wedge?

Breaking your green support line will be a problem.

Ken


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rdumas
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Monday, March 07, 2011 - 03:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

I've been out all afternoon and just returned to see the carnage. You are absolutely right. The green trend line has been well and truly breached.

On the following XJO chart I have shown both the Fibonacci retrace levels (blue)of the rally and the Fibonacci extension levels of the decline. Note that there is confluence between some of the levels.

Blue 76.4% is 4771.1 versus Green 0% is 4779.4
Blue 88.6% is 4743.5 versus Green 23.6% is 4740.5
Blue 100% is 4717.6 versus Green 38.2% is 4716.4


At this stage it looks like we are forming an abc pattern. The above levels may be the termination point for wave c.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011 - 10:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Green Trend Line Broken - XJO

Yesterday we saw the break of the short term green trend line. Whilst we are not getting positive divergences in the Line Oscillator indicator on the daily yet, they are showing up in the 60 minute chart. This at least tells us that the decline is slowing in the short term.



Following is the snapshot of the 60 minute chart at market open showing the positive divergence.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 03:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The old hag XJO now has significant downward momentum.

She has penetrated the 89ema, RSI and TMO have back tested the mid point.

I say that there is a high probability that she will go to test at least $4712 with a candle wick (a flick of the wick), and likely rest on the 144ema (~$4725)support at some point in the not so distant future.

I feel confident enough in this that I'll eat my shorts in front of the post office on payday if it doesn't come to pass.








_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 07:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

It sure has that feel about it doesn't it? There certainly isn't any convincing sign in the ASX200 futures expected 7 point open for this morning.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 08:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX Divergences

This isn't very promising. The divergence in the 99 minute chart is ominous and so is the one in the daily. In the daily chart the index broke through the blue trend line and has back tested that trend line. Unfortunately it has still not broken back above it.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 09:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello guys,

Looks like rather a choppy market at present and most definitely a corrective pattern. In situations like this itís good to lay everything out and see where we stand from a number of methods:

- Traditional Indicators: As ehmu and Rudy have pointed out they suggest a continuation of the downtrend

- Elliott Wave: I am assuming this is a wave 4 correction of major wave 3. If so, the deepest part of a wave 4 often ends at the span of the previous wave of one less degree and that is approximately 1275 on the SPX. If we had wave A down and consider this sideways movement of the last few days to be wave B then the lower degree triangle has waves abcde complete. A move is coming soon!!

- Triangle Pattern: It has to break either one way or the other up or down.
So a break of either the upper level of the previous leg high or previous leg low will confirm.

- Fixed Cycles Analysis Medium Term: This suggests a low was in place last 23rd Feb and the next upside target is approximately first week April!! Longer term larger cycles are still hard up

- Dynamic Cycles Analysis: Short term Cycles support Fixed Cycles that a low is in place already and that our next stop is 1365-1370. Longer term cycles are still hard up.

- Wave Structure: At appears that we have an INCOMPLETE impulse wave structure that started from the middle of 2010. We still need to complete the latter stages of major wave 3, then have a decent multi week correction followed by the last runup. Without a good correction first, we wonít get a top.

My bets are currently on the upside, and the pattern of trend (contracting triangle wave 4) for the SPX looks the goods


Cheers


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billt
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 11:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well thought through Andrew,

I tend to agree.

US Fundamentals are 'still hard up' too! GDP, Unemployment, Consumer Confidence, bla, bla...QE2 runs until June, & I'm sure we will have QE3 to follow.

Perhaps a few more annoying wave 4 patterns to run before we head north once again:





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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 12:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

I pretty much see it as you've numbered it.
The XJO is another animal altogether though and I can't make head or tails of the current EW declining pattern there at present.
Even so, like the SPX it's cycles have bottomed but the pattern might end up "jamming up" into a†
low soon

Cheers


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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 02:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys,

I've been out all day and have come home to find that old Auntie is doing as expected. I would suggest a move down to around the 4700 before we see any daylight. I certainly agree with Andrew about the 1275 for the SPX.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 03:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey, Rudy,

Allow me to 'add' a couple more structural support lines to varify firstly your 4700 level BUT more particularly the next level below(~ 4600 -4575) that probably will bring your bottom(red) channel line into play.




Cheers

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 03:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Thanks for that. You could well be right. If the SPX falls from the current 1321 to our anticipated 1275 that would be a drop of around 3.5%.

For the XJO to fall from yesterday's close of 4808 to 4700 would only be 2.2%. Mind you a fall to 4600 would be a drop of 4.3% which would be pretty negative but then again the XJO has been underperforming the US markets when comparing apples with oranges (XJO priced in AUD whereas US equities priced in USD which is monopoly money).

Mind you the nicest thing that could happen is the EW count that Bill put on the EW thread as well as that on the PUGS site. Nice from the bulls perspective that is.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Thursday, March 10, 2011 - 02:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi y'all:

Not very technical, but I've been receiving significantly more and more spam mail from advisory sites in the last six weeks talking about a "significant correction" imminently.

According to contrarian theory, this suggests that we are about to get a significant breakout to the up side.


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 10, 2011 - 07:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hehehehe,

Hal, you could well be right.


All is darkest ........


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 05:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



'Semi Conductors' is another 'canary' which has shown considerable weakness over the past few days. It gives the impression that its had enough....





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billt
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 08:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here is another one not looking that flash:

Mr Copper




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billt
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 08:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



better chart:





If it is an abc correction, wave c is approaching wave a....H&S looks troubling nevertheless.

Not surprised XJO took a dive south a little earlier than SPX.


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ehmu
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 12:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Wednesday, March 09, 2011 - 04:38 am:

The old hag XJO now has significant downward momentum.




The old hag slides silently in to the sea, see.




_____ n a m a s t e


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ehmu
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Monday, March 14, 2011 - 03:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Randall:

Thanks for the first impressions info. I noted that you announced an idiot sell signal on the monthly chart. I may have misunderstood, I've been looking for a negative cross of the ma's as a sell signal. I see that the slope of both ma's are negative, is that what I should be looking for?

best
Hal


_____ n a m a s t e


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rash
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Monday, March 14, 2011 - 10:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi, Hal,

I think I called it a preliminary Sell.

It is a monthly chart and there will be no confirmed Sell unless the 5WMA is below the 5EMA at the END of the month.

However, it was a preliminary because there actually was a cross. This morning the 5WMA is at 4702 and the 5EMA is higher at 4730.

Bear in mind it can be undone by the end of the month, but at this stage Auntie has Idiot Sell signals across the board.

Ciao - RA







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billt
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Monday, March 14, 2011 - 10:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Did someone say 50% wasn't a Fib number?




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