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Archive through March 19, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 19, 2011

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 07:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the EW count Bill. I agree with it!!
I was discussing this with Rudy last night in fact. Today is a fib time
cluster based on earlier tops and bottoms with in the XAO from the
last 6 months and as such is significant.
This coincides with a fixed time cycle ITD, MTD, and LMTD cycle point.
I published an 8hr cycles analysis chart in the cycles thread which
Suggests the market rallies back to the nominal level OR beyond
@ 1290-1313 before doing anything else.
I personally think the selling is done and we had the capitulation move
down last night.
If correct we should get a 90 day rally into June to complete major
wave 5.
Note : earlier I thought that this was wave 4 of
major wave 3. Given the selling pressure obviously
that is not the case and this changed this to
complete major wave 4.

Cheers


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rdumas
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 08:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

That's a convincing EW count for the SPX. Well done. If we rally tonight then it will be a good pointer.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 04:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

Just some potential dates and price level for a wave 5 completion

Cheers
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx price and time fib realtionship.xls (203.3 k)
application/vnd.ms-excel
xao fib time relationship.xls (185.3 k)



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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 04:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



oops forgot to add this one too in the last post
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx fib time_price relationship.xls (396.3 k)



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market_mad
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 06:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 12:15 am:

Supporting that count:

-US GDP is still rising;
-US Consumer Confidence is booming;
-US QE2 still in play until June & more to come to fuel the system;
-US Transports have not confirmed the bearish count (as yet);
-Cycle Analysis;
-Astrological Analysis




Hi Bill,

Not sure I'd agree with any of these things that support your count.

GDP - backward indicator so doesn't take into account what happens now or in the future.
Confidence was at extremely high levels but I am sure if the markets fall further then confidence will come down considerably.
QE2, yes in play till June but where has it been said that there is going to be more to "fuel the system"??
Cycle and astrological analysis - think this will be proved wrong as I now believe that we are in the start of C Wave down.

The points that you make that give grounds for concern will, in my opinion, only start to get worse from here.

The chart you have posted (same post) I have counted as 5 Waves up as being already complete.

Just my view

Cheers
MM

PS I'm tipping 4000 on our market by May

(Message edited by market_mad on March 16, 2011)


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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 07:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Market Mad,

If you don't mind I wouldn't mind seeing a labelled chart for a completed 5 wave count for the SPX...

When you say a 5 wave structure is complete, what do you mean by this? Sure there are 5 swings from the July 2010 low to the Feb 2011 high.... BUT with EW,pattern is more important than wave count...
The wave 2 swing low is obviously of varying degree of trend compared the correction we had in Oct/Nov 2010 and the distribution pattern (flat) we had in January 2011.

As such the correction we have just had is more than likely of the same degree of the wave 2 we had in Oct/Nov 2010. This current correction is obviously a zigzag with an intervening b wave triangle. What is not clear though is if subwave a of major wave 4 or the completion of wave 4. I think the former...

In conclusion: An Impulse needs to have the "right look" (page75:Frost and Prechter)
A fair amount of judgement and experience is necessary to properly understand this..

Just my thoughts

Cheers


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market_mad
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 09:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Skyhawk,

Thanks for the condescending last comment.

Attached as requested
application/octet-streamASX 200 Daily Chart
asx 200 futures daily chart.xlsx (371.8 k)


MM


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market_mad
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 10:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Attached - 3 yr chart and my count on ASX200 and where I think we are headed.
application/octet-stream
spi 200 3 yr chart.xlsx (384.0 k)



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skyhawk
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 10:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello MM
Thanks for charts.....
I am having trouble viewing them ATM as those files won't open..

I should note that in my last post I was referencing the SP500,
as was Bill. I am not bothering with Aussie markets at present as there
are a myriad of EW possibilities there... Stick to what is clear in my
my motto. I think that Rudy has put together a good EW
count some posts ago for the XJO that best describes our thinking
when other forms of analysis are considered as well.

Cheers


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mastersl46
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 12:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys, Could this chart be a valid wave count? I understand Wave 4 hits Wave 1 but it doesnt on the XAO. Please let me know if its invalid. Many thanks





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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 05:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Masters,

It is valid in so far that there are 5 swings....
It is not an impulse wave, it's subwaves breakdown into 3 wave structures.
The only impulse that breaks down into a 3 wave structure is an Ending
Diagonal (I.e contains both impulsive and corrective characteristics)
However in an ED, wave 1 is longest and wave 5 shortest, and they can
be characterized by converging trendlines.

There was a rare ED found by Prechter whereby the trendlines expand
and w5 was longest as in this case, but I have never seen one.

A higher probability is that the count is corrective as Rudy has previously
stated....

Hope this helps

Cheers


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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 06:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A possible current Wave count in SPX CFD 8Hr Bars
application/vnd.ms-excel
spx cfd 8hr ew chart.xls (112.6 k)



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rdumas
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 06:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

I also can't open those files. You may be using Windows 7 Excel (I also use this). In order to attach an Excel file to an IC post I have found that if I save it as a 97-2003 work book, people are able to open it.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 06:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Masters/MM

There could be another wxy count on XJO making the recent top the conclusion of the 8 month rally. Rudy's XJO count in post 4666 looks convincing nevertheless.

My own view is that EW analysis is less helpful than other techniques at this time.

Rudy, Andrew "skyhawk" & Randall "astro boy!" use a number of techniques to analysis the likely outcome. Cycle Analysis and Astrological Analysis suggests there will be a further high to come.

...if I could respond to MM's input, thanks MM for your thoughts. Just to respond:

-'US GDP is still rising'. No major turn in the stock market in the past 4 years has occurred until US GDP or PCE (the major component) has begun to turn south. A 'Black Swan' event such as Japan Fuk' blowing and dumping devastating radiation over Tokyo would 'out run' the GDP stats I fully admit...;

-'US Consumer Confidence is booming'. I am not sure if you have followed the US printouts in recent months, but the Consumer Confidence numbers are parabolic. They drive PCE, which drives GDP;

-'US QE2 still in play until June & more to come to fuel the system'. Uncle Ben clearly stated at the recent Senate Hearing that QE will continue until the economy is self sustaining and unemployment is back to normal levels;

"Federal Reserve Press Release: Release Date: January 26, 2011

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions."

Will the Fed think that unemployment @ 9% is OK and stop QE? I doubt it...

-'US Transports have not confirmed the bearish count (as yet)' Still sitting on the 4 month support level of >4900;

-'Cycle Analysis' & 'Astrological Analysis'...you could be correct MM, but along with the above indicators I am feeling that they will be correct.


Despite all that, I am fully loaded into my x3 Bear ETFs and making a 'quillion'. I will sell on the 'idiot' and ride the x3 Bull as and when we turn. If you are correct MM, it will save me some brokerage!

...and Masters, perhaps use other techniques at this point, other than EW, to help in your decision...


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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 07:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wave 1 = Wave 4, but wave 3 does not have an obvious 5 wave pattern....








...MM's idea would suggest that the 5 waves off the 1010 low completes the run (5 wave pattern in each of the 5 waves, but Wave 1 does not equal wave 4 in amplitude - it appears to be at another level) ...and MM.... your SPX count would be in black....






....I'll stay with the 'idiot'!!


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 07:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

A lot of interesting thoughts in your above posts and all worthy of considering. At this stage, like Bill I think that the Idiot is offering sage advice and it is still saying that the down move has not yet completed. Looks like the SPX closed within 2 points of the 50% retrace level. Next stop is the 61.8% retrace level at 1238.74.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 07:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

If this is a 4th wave which I think it is, then it is correcting from 1040
to 1348. The typical w4 retrace is 38.2% of wave 3 which would
mean support at approx 1235.
You mentioned the subwaves of major wave 3. I consider the consolidation in Jan a subwave 4 of 3 eyeballing the chart now.

On a more positive note I have previously mentioned to look for
a completion of wave 4 between 16-18th March for the following
reasons:

- 8hr cycles suggest a low imminent
- fib time clusters at both 16th and 18th March
- full moon Saturday
- symmetrical triangle fib time target is 18th March for the XAO

More on this later, but it is high probability for a reversal at this stage
How much of a reversal not really sure

Cheers


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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 07:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Further to my last post:

Counting in traded days,
From the late Jan 2011 low till the 17th Feb high was 13 traded days.
From the 17th Feb high to tomorrow will be 21 traded days
From late Jan 2011 low to tomorrow we have 55 traded days

So why is this significant?

Well we have a Fibonacci Symmetrical Triangle. The fib numbers being:

1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21,34,55, 89, 144……..

As can be seen the number 13,21,34 are adjacent to each other which means they are separated by the relationship 1.618 in time for traded days.
Where these clashes occur often we see reversals in trend, sometimes minor, other times major but nevertheless they happen more often than not

As stated in the earlier post, coupled by the fact that Saturday is a full moon, and that the 8 hr cycles suggest a reversal back to the nominal level is imminent, tomorrow today/tomorrow will be important to watch IMO

Cheers



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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 08:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Masters/MM

I guess this is what you are suggesting:







This would rule out the Cycle, Astrological, and FA mentioned above.


However, on Monday the wind from the Fuk' Reactors (apt abbreviation) is heading straight at Tokyo and to make matters worse, rain is forecast in Tokyo. I cannot imagine a larger 'Black Swan' than a massive nuclear radiation fallout over Tokyo.




So there are numerous options - put your other TA or FA into the mix and decide what seems to work for you. Fuk' might, unfortunately, hold the key?


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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 08:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Andrew

That all looks very convincing!

If Fuk' doesn't blow its head off, your work makes a very (very) compelling case. It supports the FA I have mentioned above, $TRAN and others...


Bill


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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 08:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill,

The market had topped and was falling weeks before the earthquake
It would have corrected irrespective of the events in Japan.
Fuq or No Fuq!!!
The media will will always try to justify the moves of the market
either via fundamentals or external events.

Interestingly if you look into history, events have only had a brief
impact on the long term secular trends.

Cheers


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market_mad
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 08:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy and everyone else for their comments. Interesting stuff indeed - hope these work now and yes these are on the XJO - not on the SPX,

Cheers

application/octet-stream
asx 200 futures daily chart 03 version.xlsx (371.8 k)


application/octet-stream
spi 200 3 yr chart 03 version.xls (395.3 k)



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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 11:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Fuk or No Fuk !

Up until the global pullback on 21 February, the Nikkei looked as promising as SPX. There were reports that usd$1 billion worth of heavily leveraged 'long' positions were being placed that Japan was turning the corner....

The EW count had a similar 5 wave impulse off the August 2010 low, and many were suggesting that the possible 9 waver would see the Nikkei extend much further, and outpace SPX.

Without the current destruction to their economy & Fuk' the Japanese markets perhaps would have followed SPX, but that possibility is now over. Wave C down.


Japan has a National Debt 200% of GDP, which makes the USA's 97% look positively lame by comparison. Rebuilding the economy after the current problems will be very challenging. USA & Europe have no cash to spare, and China has never been a fan for historic reasons.

The fallout for the Australian economy is yet to be factored in - they may need our resources to re build, but payment is going to be a problem?








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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 12:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

To more fully answer your question earlier today, regarding GDP.

I use the “Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product” table 1.1.1, from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Economic Accounts, National Income and Product Accounts Table.

PCE is ‘Personal consumption expenditures’

Extracting from the Table the significant Market ‘Tops & Bottoms’ either matched the relevant announcement, or reacted to it within a short window.


October 2007 Top

Q4 2007 figures showed a drop in PCE . Q1 2008 GDP & PCE reversed sharply.

Market topped in Q4 2007, and begun the free fall on 11 December 2007 and a larger move on 16 May 2008.


March 2009 Bottom

Q4 2008 showed an improvement in PCE. Q1 2009 figures showed an improvement in GDP & PCE.

Market bottomed in Q1 2009.


April 2010 Top

Q4 2009 figures showed a drop in PCE . Q1 2010 GDP reversed sharply.

Market topped just after the Q1 announcement.


July 2010 Bottom

Q1 & Q2 2010 showed an improvement in PCE. Q3 2010 figures showed an improvement in GDP & PCE.

Market bottomed at the start of Q3 2010.


February 2011 Top? (no signal as yet...)

Latest Q4 2010 figures show PCE climbing from 2.4% to 4.1%. This is the largest positive movement since 2006.

US GDP has risen from 1.6%, to 2.6%, to 2.8% over the past three quarters



It is just one of many Indicators that have given a reasonable indication of potential trend.


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market_mad
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 12:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Thanks for explaining those figures. Personally I don't take much notice of them as they are old news - what has happened in the past.

Cheers
MM


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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 02:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi MM

The financial material released is past tense, but the 'announcement' is in real time.

The market reaction to that 'announcement' has, at times, been immediate.

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2010 (Advance Estimate) released at 8am, 30 April, 2010 gave a great signal to the 26 April 2010 top.

The market dropped 1.7% on the 30th after the announcement and then proceeded to give up another 20% over the course of the month.

The 'idiot' got you out on the 26th!

28 April is the release for Q1 2011.


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p3t3
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 03:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

Japan has a National Debt 200% of GDP, which makes the USA's 97% look positively lame by comparison.


BillT, here's a link to an alternative view of the real effect of Japan's level of indebtedness, which shallow media coverage might have overlooked.


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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 03:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Silver

Here is an entry from 'Trader Dan' on his site, with an EW Count (in silver!) by yours truly.

I decided to play AGQ (Double Silver) as it has more bang for the buck...

I just sense that Silver is being less 'manipulated' than Gold at present. With USA & Japan now with printing presses rolling @ $200 billion a month, I cannot see the Gold & Silver story abating...

I am awaiting the 'idiot' but was wondering whether anyone has any thoughts on the next rally on the shiny stuff?






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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 03:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks p3t3,

Thanks for forwarding that article, I had not read about that before:


"if we only focus only the net financial liabilities held by the Japanese government, including the foreign currency assets of the central bank, this adds up to around 80% of GDP. This figure compares favorably to the average debt levels of the countries that make up the EU and is only moderately higher than the comparable figure for the US."



...well it looks like they are all as bad as each other, give or take a trillion...


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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 03:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This Chart has not been updated.

The cycle sequence on 18 days is approaching once again ....and it aligns with my EW count.





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rdumas
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 03:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Been out all day and have no time to go into more detail. The following chart shows two different levels for Silver. If it is a level 1 retrace at this point in time then it's probably over at the 23.6% Fib level.

If it's a level 2 retrace then there is more to go. I hope there's enough resolution on the chart for you to see the two levels.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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p3t3
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 03:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

Thanks for forwarding that article, I had not read about that before...



It was news to me.....thought you might be interested.


quote:

...well it looks like they are all as bad as each other, give or take a trillion...



Far be it from me to suggest there might be collusion regarding Central Banker type thinking....with a certain high-profile bearded academic clearly in the lead.


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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 04:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy

I have been playing around with my EW count as follows:





Assuming we are in an extended wave 3 event (and a certain bearded man is greatly helping me here - not you! 'Keep those presses going Uncle Ben'), I am watching for a wave iii of 3 to take off.


We are now within the range of wave iv of the previous rally. Previous corrections seem to have been contained within the 5th wave blow off.


That brings me to a target >31.719 to the bottom of the previous wave iv.

Fib 50% is at 31.56.


I'll just have to be patient and wait for my 'idiot' to arrive!!!


Does my 18/19 day cycle have any relevance to a Conti?


thanks Rudy

Bill


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billt
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 05:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The 10 year chart:





When this correction completes, 3 of iii of 3 awaits!


AGQ (Double Silver) gained +85.5% in 5 weeks in 1 of iii of 3, and +380% since the wave 3 rally commenced in August 2010 (using the 'idiot' would have made you more).....so if you have any spare greenbacks in your wallet....?


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market_mad
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 07:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Again, couldn't the silver chart (10 year) be counted as 5 waves up complete?

Wave up 1 - agreed
a - replaced by wave 2 down
i - replaced by end of wave 3 up
ii - replaced by end of wave 4 down
(small) 1 - replaced by wave 5 up?

Personally, I think gold and silver are both heading down from these levels. Every man and their dog has been investing in gold and silver - my view? Game is up and there is so much leverag into both of these asset classes that they will both unwind dramatically from here.

Just my view
Cheers
MM


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mastersl46
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Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 11:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi built,
Yes if the XJO were to be a 5 waver that has finished, then you would have to say the count you had for SPX would be the favourite that supports the XJO count. If anyone has any spare time, I'd like to see someones EW analysis on the FTSE. The move from July 2010 to Feb 17 2011 looks clearer as a 5 wave move up. Thanks in advance to anyone who gives their opinion. I'd like to see one that supports the end of the minor bull phase & another that supports the move that we are still waiting for another wave up that the 4M's support. I understand that the GDP results, TA & Cycle Analysis are very useful tools. thanks for all the info.


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gdd3
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Friday, March 18, 2011 - 12:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BillT and M/M....

Really not too sure whether you could dispute either EWC that you have presented but I'm with Rudy here in that, like our XJO which is also difficult to settle on a 'comfortable EWC, it would be better to rely on other T/A tools to help formulate a "traders/investors" view....and this means concentrating on the short-term picture and let that develop and resolve itself further in order to assist with formulating a more comfortable(and less confusing) 'view' going further forward.

Having said that, if you keep the EW principles simple(especially at times like we are experiencing now), and just concentrate on what I call "wave personality"(Rudy, you have heard me use this 'description' many a time) and that is ...does the preceeding move appear "impulsive" and is the current move appearing "corrective" or not? In the case of Silver's present action(since the $26.36 Jan. swing low) it 'clearly' has had another "impulsive" wave up(since lets say the Oct.08 lows but really since Nov. 01 lows)to the recent high at $36.76 and you would favour is in a "corrective" pattern phase since then(take a look at the nature of the move as shown on the 4hr chart below). I also note that this current "corrective" move has come back to within the price range of 4th wave of the impulse up from the Jan.28th low. Its also back at the 38.2% level of the previous Range extension** point but just short of the 38.2% retracement level of the last "impulse" wave up(as you have pointed out, BillT).

If you look at my other chart here, a Daily back to the July 2010 swing low, you will note that I'm suggesting that the 1st impulsive wave since that swing low may have finished on Nov.9th, 2010 followed by a (bullish)"Running Correction" that finished at the Jan.28th swing low. Now the subsequent "impulse wave" high happened to be exactly 61.8% from the previous impulse wave high(**range extension referred above).

My take(and approach) if I were trading Silver would be (1)...if it gets back to ~$32.50(38.2% - 50% of last wave plus lower 1/3 of last 4th wave) I may take a nibble with a tight stop, or
(2)...wait for MACD to break above the dotted purple dntrend line if aggressive or above the red horizontal line also shown on the MACD of the 4hr chart.

Just my take, guys!

4hr CHART....SILVER

}


DAILY CHART....SILVER




A "limping" back into action...

Dolphin}


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billt
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Friday, March 18, 2011 - 06:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks MM & Dolphin on your input on Silver. Very much appreciated.

I totally understand your view on the ‘shiny stuff’ MM. On the EW count my own feeling is that the August change of inclination looks to be the start of a classic wave 3. We will see if it runs…

Thank you Dolphin for your extensive response – most appreciated. My thoughts were very similar to your own, but I have ‘tweeked’ my approach based on some of your observations.

Thank you again guys,

Bill


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billt
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Friday, March 18, 2011 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Masters


You asked about the 'Pom'?

"I'd like to see one that supports the end of the minor bull phase & another that supports the move that we are still waiting for another wave up that the 4M's support."


The FTSE has similar pattern irregularities as the XJO:

- wave 1 looks a corrective 3 wave move;
- wave 3 has a large corrective pattern mid stream;
- wave 5 was a bit of a fizzer

So as a 5 waver that supports the end of the minor bull phase it has some 'issues', but it is valid. We would be currently in wave iii (at some lower level) heading south - look out below! (bring the corgis in...)


The ABCWXY count looks perhaps a little more convincing. The corrective patterns sit more comfortably in the wave pattern. This allows a final leg up for 4G's final run north. This is very similar to Rudy's Count on XJO. We would be currently in wave c of an abc move to complete X at some location, before heading off to complete Y!








...any queries - please shout!


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rdumas
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Friday, March 18, 2011 - 07:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You may be interested to know that PUGS has posted his latest thoughts on the SPX and his analysis agrees with the view that Andrew and myself hold in that there is a high likelihood that the 4th wave completed at 1249.05. Refer http://pugsma.wordpress.com/

Following is an extract of his post.

"For the primary count (white), I’m counting the move up to 1277.88 as 5-waves for minute (1) of minor 1 or major [5]-P3. The drop back down to 1266.92 as minute (2) and minute (3) up is underway with a target of 1315, where (3)=1.62*(1)."

Auntie in her usual way will follow like a patient on valium.

I should say that whilst we agree with his lower level counts, we do not agree with his higher level count as his primary high level count suggests that we are in a long term bull market similar to that suggested by Tony Caldaro. His secondary long term count is similar to that of Andrew's and mine.

Andrew and I believe that we are forming the last leg of Primary wave Circle B after which we go into a significant bear phase in Primary wave Circle C.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, March 18, 2011 - 07:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Target zones for X are very obvious.

The 'pom' is sitting on the 38.2% fib having a think about it.





The CAC & DAX have given back 50% already, so perhaps the FTSE may be under some more pressure.

The XJO is dancing between the 50% & 61%.


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skyhawk
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Friday, March 18, 2011 - 08:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

I should think that some world indices will see new highs after this
correction completes, and some will see lower highs.
As of the September of last year I came to the conclusion that this
market will see a top in either Feb or June 2011, pending on what
the 4 year cycle looked like at the time.

Well we have had our Feb top. But is this it? Well the 4 year cycle still
has not topped out. What is needed to change the profile of this
cycle to suggest a peak ? Well first of all a big correction which
we have just had. Secondly, a retest of the last 17th Feb highs.

It does not have to be a new high, it can be:
- double top
- a false break new high
- a lower high that deeply retraces the current decline

After this happens and the 4 year cycle profile changes accordingly
Then we will be in a position to pick a top with higher probability

Cheers


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billt
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Friday, March 18, 2011 - 08:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy

Interesting to see if SPX pops north as PUGS count.

1249.05 bounced off the rising 8 month trend line, so it has every chance of turning at this point.

Andrew's work obviously shouts for a turn north.

W%14 gave a signal today, so waiting to see if we get a cross on the MAs. MACD got a tiny tick up on the histogram.






On the 15 min chart prices need to push above the overhead trend line to confirm the move.







Fuk' continues to be a massive problem, with the first signs of minor radiation drifting across the Pacific to USA. How Wall Street will react is the uncertainty in my mind.

With the Yanks waking up to these headlines, it does make you cautious:



"Danger from pool holding spent fuel rivals threat posed by failed reactors

Facilities housing the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 reactors have all been hit by explosions, and their radioactive cores have begun to at least partially melt down."



"U.S. urges military action against Libya

Shifting away from earlier caution, the U.S. and allied diplomats ask the U.N. Security Council to OK airstrikes on Libyan ground forces and aircraft."


Tokyo under immediate threat, and another war in 'Oil Land'.


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mastersl46
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Friday, March 18, 2011 - 06:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi built, Many thanks for answering my question. Yes the count you stated is what i would of expected for the bull market phase to be finished, i am not sure how to label the ABCWXY pattern but i trust your labelling. Still is confusing to where we sit now at in EW, many reasons to support the ABCXYZ & also many reasons to support the 12345 pattern. Just wish i could be a psychic and forecast the next move!


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market_mad
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Friday, March 18, 2011 - 06:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

As Skyhawk said in a previous post;


skyhawk wrote on Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 09:20 am:

The market had topped and was falling weeks before the earthquake
It would have corrected irrespective of the events in Japan.
Fuq or No Fuq!!!
The media will will always try to justify the moves of the market
either via fundamentals or external events.




Markets will do what markets will do regardless of the "news". Our market fell considerably even before the Japanese disaster. In fact, the XJO is approx 0.8% lower than when it was before the news was announced.

Probably best to quote news stories/events and synopsis on Daily Bread rather than EW threads?

Cheers
MM


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ivor
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 09:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eliot Wavers,
Is this a completed Eliot Wave cycle ?
And if it is, will a new Eliot cycle start from here ?




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billt
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 10:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Ivor,

'Coal' is the 'new Black'!

Attached is one count which you may like to consider.

It would appear CWK is in the process of completing a 4th wave off the November 2008 low.

Wave 4 now equals wave 2 in time and price. That occurred as prices tagged the 38% fib retracement just recently.

It would appear that there is a clear 5 wave pattern down off the 105.5 (27 Jan) high to the 75 to make a wave 'a of 4'. A further 3 wave correction to complete the 'b of 4' move, and we are now in wave 'c of 4'.

Prices are now within wave iv of the previous leg, so you are in the ball park for watching for a bottom.

The wave c correction may have completed at the 70.5 level on 16th March.

The alternative is that this wave is only the first of five waves to complete, and we have further south to go. Wave 'c of 4' = Wave 'a of 4' might be an obvious target.

If prices broke the declining trend line, and you had some useful MA crossovers and MACD support, it may look very useful. W%14 has already given a 'buy' signal, so watch it closely....

'Wave 5 UP' may be about to run....


This is predicated on the idea that XJO has another leg north to go.

The alternative bearish count would be that the top is in, with iii/iv actually being 3/4, and you are watching an impulsive push south, currently in wave iii DOWN at some level.


Based upon the time & price equality of the current correction compared with the April 2010 correction, and posts by Rudy & Andrew above relating to XJO, I slightly favor the count as posted.

Other posters here say XJO has topped, so the normal warnings apply!


Good luck with it....






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billt
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 11:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi MM

My only reason for mentioning Black Swan events or any other issue is to justify or qualify an EW Count.

EW alone does not inform the view.

If Tokyo gets wiped by massive waves of radiation in the days ahead, my own view is that 1344 will be the top for SPX, and Wave C will have already commenced. (..i have a big red B to stick on 1344...)

I am not a supporter of the view that 'Markets will do what markets will do regardless of the "news" '....

If one of largest financial centres and leading world economies gets materially effected by a (nuclear) disaster not seen in over 65 years, markets may well free fall on the "news"....


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billt
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 11:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi masters

The only 'crystal ball' that I would suggest that you consider is Astro Boy's Magic Tent (Astrology and Stock Markets) ....go inside and have a look!

In respect to WXY patterns, I direct you to Rudy's Cheat Sheet which he posted back on 10 July 10. Once you study the sheet you can be our expert on WXY patterns! (i'm still on L Plates!)

bill







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ivor
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 11:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Billt

Thanks for your answer, but didn't really understand it all.
Did I not get the wave count correct in my posting ?
What you are saying is that CWK is in wave 4, and not about to recommence a wave 1.
Tried to master Eliot wave concepts in the past and it all became too confusing.
Rudy and Hershy tried to help out, but I could never quite follow it. Looks like I'm not much better at it now.

Regards
Ivor

 
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