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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through March 28, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through March 28, 2011

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billt
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 11:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Ivor

There are often multiple EW counts on a given security that could be considered a valid count.

There are two options that I see at present:

1. Bullish Option. CWK has/is completing wave 4 of 5.

2. Bearish Option. 105 was the top, a 5 wave pattern has completed the trip to 105, CWK is now heading south.

If you use the methodologies of the 4Gs, you would favor the Bullish Option.

If you believe XJO has already topped out, you would favor the Bearish option.

Based upon the time & price equality of the current correction compared with the April 2010 correction, and posts by Rudy & Andrew above relating to XJO, I slightly favor the Bullish Option.

Within the two major corrections seen within the chart below you will see that there is a similar time & price arrangement. More than likely they are in the SAME LEVEL....that is the first correction was a 1/2, and the second a 3/4.....that to me gives me the biggest clue that a Wave 5 UP may be the next probable outcome.

No certainties here - only higher probabilities!






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billt
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 12:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Ivor,

Your EW count only referred to a shorter time frame. You must start your larger count at the previous major low or high to get the BIG picture - Nov 08 for CWK.

Then look for the BIG corrections of similar price & time - in CWK's case it was April 10 & Feb 11 - then consider if that makes a reasonable 1/2, 3/4 arrangement.


Your own EW count mixed up waves at different levels. Try to assemble your BIG corrections first, then proceed to drill down in locating the 5 & 3 wave patterns within your chart.





Out of action now, hope that helps







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rdumas
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 01:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ivor,

CWK is an example of a stock that may not be a useful EW candidate as the patterns are fairly inconclusive especially as (from a longer term perspective) it really doesn't have enough data to drill down from long term to medium and then short term to get a complete EW picture. Hence I would suggest that the use of EW on this stock would be more academic rather than useful from an investment perspective.

Other methodologies are more useful on this stock.

I've added some Fibonacci retracement and extension ratios as I know you are extremely interested in them.

Note the confluence between the purply red 88.6% Fib retrace ratio and the 100% Fib extension shown in blue which would have suggested to a technical analyst using Fib ratios that a likely high for the stock in early February would occur around these levels. Also note the confluence in the 3 Fib retrace levels shown in green and the Fib extension levels shown in blue which indicate potential bounce levels.

One should remember that the use of Fibonacci ratios is very specific in the ranges that are used and hence the results are not easily proven by blindly applying the ratios to every move in the market and coming up with conclusions from observations derived on that basis. The facts are that Fibonacci ratios have been shown to work on a practical basis since time immemorial by the best technical analysts in the business regardless of what some people attempt to say to the contrary.

Fibonacci retrace and extension levels as well as previous levels of support and resistance (whether in the horizontal plane or in rising of falling channels) are areas were turning points have the highest probability of occurring. They are not guaranteed levels at which the market will definitely turn. The whole field of technical analysis is built of the use of tools that provide higher than normal levels at which market turns can take place.

Another useful methodology is the use of candle sticks. The long tails in 2 out of the last 4 candles show us that there is a strong push from the bulls to arrest the decline in spite of pressure from the bears.

Not shown on the chart is a descending trendline that has defined the fall to date. Should that trendline be breached to the upside it would be a good short term signal of bullishness.

Also not shown on the chart is the fact that the TMF has started rising from a 0% base to 13.9% recently.

The chart below is a weekly chart and you can see that the weekly Idiot is on a sell however the monthly is on a strong buy and the daily Idiot is getting very close to a buy.

On a 'close' price basis the MBB is providing support for the price action.

All these indications as well as some others suggest to me that whilst there may be some further downside in the short term, the pressure is building up for a longer term move upwards.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 07:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

An EW query on the SPX count:

Caldaro has his i-3, 5 wave count completing at SPX 1344. He suggests we currently have a 5th wave down to complete his wave c-ii, before commencing a iii of 3 of 3 in his SC3….a highway to heaven & nirvana all rolled into one….The count nevertheless looks ‘solid’ off the March 09 low. 5/3/5 count to the SPX 1344 high, in a 1/2/i format.

Other Bearish counts off the 1010 low look equally solid, presenting 1344 as our top of Wave B, and we are now in a Wave C south. Again 5/3/5....

I appreciate that other methodologies in the 4G circle give these options a much lower probability of occurring - I raise these counts purely on the basis of 'their look'!


The concern I have on a further trip higher, is the count of the 3rd wave. The Nov 2010 correction sitting in the middle of wave 3 looks very odd?

Pugs attempt is to suggest the Nov' correction was the 1/2, and 3/4 sits somewhere further north - it does not look very convincing in terms of price/time/level. It just simply does not look like a correction in the same level? It has been my 'elephant in the room' for the past few days, I need to release it!

Is it that the strength of the Cycle/Astro input pushes your EW count in a certain way, and at times you bend with the strength of the combined input?


Any thoughts/observations?


Cheers

Bill


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billt
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Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 10:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



To clarify my last post, here are some charts.

First Chart shows the Bullish & Bearish Counts.

Bullish puts us in a ii-3 (Gold letters), soon to head north in a wave iii-3.

Bearish puts us in an initial i wave at a lower level heading south (Red letters).








Wave 3 looks to have an unconvincing wave iv pullback - the correction was over in 2 trading days & <2%?:






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rdumas
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 09:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

One of the advantages that G4 has over some EW analysts is the input from the additional methodologies at our disposal. It was that input that allowed us to be firm in our conviction that the March rally was not complete when Prechter told his subscribers to start shorting the market when the SPX was at 1280. Until those other methodologies are proven wrong, I will continue to trust in them to guide me in coming up with an appropriate EW count for the SPX.

Following are some of the EW counts on the net that I have been following with interest. The two main bearish counts have the following look and feel. Where they are similar is that they suggest that the March rally has been a corrective pattern and that it has already completed.

In both cases the proponents believe that the market direction for the next few years will be down.

Those who believe that Primary wave B was formed would believe that a Primary wave C was in the offering whereas those who believe that a Primary wave 2 was formed would believe that a Primary wave 3 was in the offering. The Primary wave 3 scenario would be far more bearish than the Primary wave C scenario.




The two main bullish EW proponents that I have been studying are Tony Caldaro and PUGS. The following count is my understanding of what Tony Caldaro suggests for the SPX. Tony basically suggests that the SPX is in the process of forming a Super Cycle 3 at this stage. He suggests that March 2009 marked the beginning of a new bull market.

Note that he uses slightly different terminology to that used by Prechter however it's pretty simple to understand the different levels that he works with.





I like the work that PUGS does at the lower levels even though I disagree with his count at the higher levels. Unfortunately the higher level counts that he uses in his day to day postings are slightly different to that which he describes in his tab called "LONGER TERM SP-500 VIEW". This causes a bit of confusion.

The following count is based on his day to day postings and is his bullish view of the SPX price action. In the LONGER TERM SP-500 VIEW tab he also provides what he calls his NEUTRAL count. This count is a lot closer to the one that the G4 has as their primary count.

In his "LONGER TERM SP-500 VIEW" his Cycle 3 label is located much higher than where he shows it located in his day to day postings. I could be misreading something but don't think so.






The following is what I believe represents the G4 EW count for the SPX. I haven't passed it by the other guys but I do know that we all tend to think that we still have upside to the market for a few months yet.

The depth of the current (recent?) decline leads me to believe that we are (have been) in a Minor wave 4. It was obviously larger than a Minute level wave.

We either are or will soon be commencing Minor wave 5. Once complete (we believe mid year at this stage) it will have completed patterns at several levels including a Primary wave B. From that point on we will commence a significant decline in the form of a Primary wave C.

It is still too early to say whether that Primary wave C will be the final leg of the GFC or whether the GFC will form a Triangle pattern (ABCDE).

In the case of the Triangle pattern there would be a high probability of the March 2009 low NOT being taken out. If it turns out to be a 3 wave pattern instead (Zigzag or Flat) then the likelihood of the March 2009 low being taken out would increase dramatically.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 11:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy - a very thorough review for everyone to digest. A Masterclass!

(you know me - always challenging things....here goes)

The particular difference between the G4(& Pug) EW count since the 1010 low and all the other counts, is that the G4 count has the addition of the 3/4 on the 28 January pullback - the correction was over in 2 trading days and corrected 2.1%.

The G4 count has the 1/2 pullback on 8 November taking 16 trading days to complete and resulted in a 4.6% pullback.

To my mind these two corrections were at different levels.

Are there any EW 'rules' governing the 'price and time' characteristics of corrections within the same level?

The EW count that 'looks' more correct is that the 5 waves off the 1010 low completed at 1344. The two major corrections in that count look to be at the same level - similar time period...one sharp/one flat.

The input from the additional methodologies obviously is very (very) strongly suggesting that we have another leg to run north - to some level....

One other thought is that 1344 was the top and we have an elongated topping pattern (triangle) before we head south in the months to come? Is there any other topping pattern we should be considering to accord with the Cycle analysis?






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rdumas
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 12:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You have the label in the wrong location. Following is where I have the wave 4 label located. Note that it is roughly a 50% relationship in time.





The time and price relationships are in the attached document.


application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document
elliott wave rules and guidelines.docx (21.0 k)



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 12:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have a hope of attempting EW lettering on an impulsive wave, but no idea on corrective waves.

So let me try just with the image of a very high order wave going corrective after the March 09 bottom. On my chart the orange wave.

Then the superimposed lower order yellow wave being impulsive on the first section of the orange wave and going corrective after the july 2010 low.

This scenario would suggest that both levels of waves would be in the 5down mode after June 2011.

wadayathink





_____ n a m a s t e


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ehmu
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 12:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ps
I notice that the price has stopped short at 50% of the last 38.2% of the crash retracement.

I'll send a better chart of this tomorrow.


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 02:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Focussing purely on your super-imposed white wave forms in the previous post.

If we were to label the rally from March 2009 as an impulse the 4th wave falls into the price range of wave 1 which would cause it to be an invalid impulse wave. Leading Diagonals are impulsive and have the above characteristic but they are usually contracting triangle patterns whereas your pattern appears to be an expanding triangle.

The following drop and subsequent rally appear to be 3 wave corrective patterns.

Impulsive and Corrective Wave Pattern Structures

I'm not really sure why but there is a general fear of labelling corrective wave patterns. Many people believe that the labelling ends up looking like alphabet soup but in reality it is no more complex than labelling an impulse wave.

It is pretty obvious that a 3 wave pattern can only be a corrective pattern. It is only 5 wave patterns that tend to confuse people.

3 Wave Patterns

3 wave patterns are labelled either ABC or WXY.

An ABC corrective pattern has the following structure: corrective - corrective - impulsive.

A WXY corrective pattern has the following structure: corrective - corrective - corrective.


5 Wave Patterns

5 wave patterns come in a number of varieties. If they have overlapping waves then they are either a 5 wave corrective pattern or a leading (or ending) diagonal. The leading and ending diagonals are impulsive patterns.

Leading diagonals have the following structure: Imp - Cor - Imp - Cor - Imp.

Ending diagonals have the following structure: Cor - Cor - Cor - Cor - Cor.

If the pattern is a 5 wave pattern with no overlapping waves then it can be either an impulse wave or a 5 wave corrective pattern.

How do you tell the difference???

An impulse wave will be labelled 12345 and will have the following wave structure: impulsive - corrective - impulsive - corrective - impulsive.

A 5 wave corrective pattern will be labelled WXY(XX)Z and have the following wave structure: cor - cor - cor - cor - cor.

I hope that clarifies the various patterns for you. I have posted my favourite Cheat Sheet before but if you haven't seen it, here it is again.

application/pdf
cheat_sheet[1].pdf (115.7 k)



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 02:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy,

It just looks to me that 5 wave completion off the 1010 low allocates the 15 day corrections into the upper order, and the 8 day corrections or less into the lower order.

Just seems to fit better to my eye....the correction within wave 3 & 5 as I have noted in purple all seem to fit more harmoniously together, just very minor 2% corrections wobbling about....


We all see it differently I guess...


Just thinking we might begin a triangular topping pattern, abcde format, before the big drop? A few more highs to cover Andrew's cycle highs....?






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billt
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 02:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






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rdumas
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 02:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

If you think about it, should your view above be correct then the ABC corrective pattern would indicate that the completion of that pattern would lead to another impulse pattern. Hence logically it would mean that you are saying that we have just completed Intermediate wave 3.

The completion of Intermediate wave 5 would take a lot longer to arrive than Andrew's anticipated June date. Wave 1 took around 13 months, wave 3 took around 7 months. As wave 1 was larger than wave 3 I would expect wave 5 to be of shorter duration (and price range) than wave 3. Let's say that it only lasted 3 months. Your wave 4 probably wouldn't complete until April so you are looking at a minimum of completing the rally by July at the earliest and possibly later.

Now I am not saying that this is wrong because if the 4 year cycle did really drag out then September/October would be a great period to complete based on historical seasonality factors. However based on Andrew's cycle analysis that timing appears to be stretching it.

Again, I would not rule it out but what we are attempting to do is come up with an EW count that is consistent with the other methodologies. If we ignore Andrew's cycle analysis your view has a lot of merit. In fact if you have read my view of the XJO's current potential of forming an impulse wave down (ref: Market Wrap), I would be leaning very heavily on adopting a similar view if that occurred.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 02:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

My previous post related to your post 757. As for you post 758, that scenario is also valid but completely ignores Andrew's 4 year cycle projection which is why I have discounted it for the time being.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 03:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy for your 'corrective pattern' teach-in. It's all in the Cheat Sheet I guess.....


I haven't kept an eye on Neely or Prechter of late.


I understand Glenn Neely instructed trading customers to go ‘Short’ on Friday 18th Feb @ the 1344 top.


“This new pattern suggests a 1- to 2-year bear market has begun and will likely result in a 30+% drop in market valuation.” Mr. Neely / NEoWave.


Unfortunately now Prechter agrees with Neely, which makes it less likely to happen....


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rdumas
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 03:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I believe that Robert McHugh is also of the same opinion so the G4 are really being contrarians to the big gun EW guys. It will be interesting to see who turns out to be correct.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 03:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It certainly wouldn't be the first time we have been contrarians to these
guys in the last 2 years. I have more hope being a contrarian to them
than agreeing with them!!


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rdumas
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 03:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

And thankfully so far they have been proven wrong in the majority of (if not all) those occasions.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 03:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



You would have made more money 'shorting' Prechter than following him!

My earlier post was trying to analyse whether we could still complete Andrew's June high whilst maintaining 1344 as the top? I guess a bizarre 'failed' Ending Diagonal is the one option, with 1 & 2 complete? With W3>W2 that would drag out the ending.....

I guess it is the same outcome as a failed 5th on your count Rudy, so the end result will be the same.


I have not seen the G4 EW Count anywhere else - have you Rudy!?


...thank goodness for the 'Idiot' !


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ehmu
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Monday, March 21, 2011 - 05:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Thanks for your extremely thorough response to my vague and undetailed post. Reflecting on the core of your answer, I seem to recall this discussion from before, and it may have been the exact same place in the price history where I missed the point that you mention. I do know that in EW , wave 4 cannot overlap a wave 1 at the same level of analysis.


rdumas wrote on Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 03:13 pm:

If we were to label the rally from March 2009 as an impulse the 4th wave falls into the price range of wave 1 which would cause it to be an invalid impulse wave.




I do have your cheat sheet and have studied it and refer to it now occasionally not having given up totally on EW. Since over the years giving EW multiple chances to be a tool in my tool box, I have to admit that I have seldom received any insight that lead me towards a wise trading decision. The overlapping rule that you mention has helped me decide about price continuation occasionally, but doesn't always work.

In terms of learning EW, it is my thinking style and not my work ethic that get in my way. As an example, in my mind terminology used in EW uses the same word for multiple situations (this always strikes me as contradictory). In my mind, I can rationalize that an impulse wave can be positive or negative and at a single fixed level it is a five wave pattern. My thinking style requires convergence toward the objective. When I encounter contradictions in a situation or description I am unable to converge on the (wisdom) answer.

At the next level down from the 5wave impulse, three wave countertrends are corrective (to the trend of the impulse wave). ie wave 2 of a 5 wave impulse wave is corrective to the impulsive trend and should be labelled abc. And going to the next level down on the 3wave correction itself, wave A is likely a 5wave shape and is the impulse of the abc correction.

I haven't even touched on one other specific Elliot irregularity, that the whole world considers a wave as including both the impulse and the (relaxation or) correction. Elliot calls them as separate waves. ie wave 1 & 2 are actually the two parts of a natural wave but two waves in Elliot theory.

I only explain my confusion out of respect for you and your thinking style. Experts have categorized five different thinking styles for human beings, and I think that Elliot's and mine are not the same style.

Most individuals who have been tested have been found to use only 1 thinking style. A few have learned to use several styles. A very few use multiple styles to decision-making. Those who are adept at recognizing and using different thinking styles as is relevant to the circumstance and their other communication skills are consistently better communicators.

Here is one link that explains the short version of thinking styles, and the second link that you will probably appreciate with more detail.


http://sourcesofinsight.com/2007/12/23/five-thinking-styles/


http://www.earthtym.net/s-general.html

ps
I am primarily what the articles call a realist thinker. In the future, I'll try to refine my ideas a little better before I post them on the EW string, apologies.


_____ n a m a s t e


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rdumas
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Monday, March 21, 2011 - 07:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The closest count to ours came out fairly late in the game when PUGS brought out his 'Neutral Scenario'. I think if you do a thorough read of his LONGER TERM SP-500 VIEW tab it shows up there as an alternate count. He did spend time on it in his day to day posts at one stage and I thought that 'the penny had dropped' for him but he hasn't spent any time on it since.

I suspect that if things turn bearish, he will resurrect that count and make it his primary count.

As to whether the SPX can breach the 1344 top in it's 5th wave up I guess that is in the laps of the gods because failed 5th waves happen often enough for either scenario to play out.

In the case of the XJO I think it is even more line ball. It really has acted like a reluctant index throughout its entire March 2009 rally so far.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

I fully understand your dilemma. There is no doubt that we all view the world differently through the filters of our individual thinking processes and experiences. People are 'wired' differently which is what causes so much misunderstanding during communications. Especially when using the written word as the medium of communication.

I don't know how to make things clearer. You may remember my constant chant that the greatest problem in using EW analysis is what I term 'level confusion'.

Let's take the simplest example of a standard impulse wave (ignore the leading and ending diagonal impulsive patterns as they are special cases). A simple impulse wave is a 5 wave pattern that obeys the following rules:

1) Waves 1, 3 and 5 are impulsive patterns
2) Wave 3 cannot have the shortest range of the three. That is to say either 1 or 5 is allowed to be longer but not both of them.
3) Waves 2 and 4 are corrective patterns
4) Wave 4's price action cannot intrude into the price range of wave 1.

Hence it is a simple 5 wave pattern. The fact that it is composed of both impulsive and corrective patterns internal to its structure is of no concern. This simply happens to be the nature of the beast. Just focus on the fact that it is a 5 wave pattern that obeys the rules relating to an impulse wave.

If you treat each pattern at a single level in the same way that I just treated the above impulse wave then things should become clearer. Each pattern has its own set of rules. Most of these rules relate to the nature of the individual legs of the pattern and vice versa.

Impulse wave extensions add further to the confusion. This is where a normal 5 wave impulse wave appears to become a 9 wave impulse wave. In fact this is not the case at all. The overall impulse wave is still only a 5 wave pattern. What has occurred is that the internal waves of (in most cases) either the 3rd or 5th wave have become visible on the chart. In the case of a 13 wave impulse wave you are actually seeing the lower level of two waves. That fact is that we really only ever have a 5 wave impulse wave at any time. The ability to see waves at the lower level once again causes confusion.

So in fact we are seeing two different levels within the impulse wave. Once again, it's the level confusion that makes things complicated.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Hey Hal,

Does this help? Different brains/different experiences! Not many waves in Alberta I know....

I have spent a lot of my life in the surf or sailing along the Pacific coast....

To me, EW is a lot like the waves in the ocean.





Why are there sets of larger waves?

Author; John Sidles sidles@u.washington.edu

People first began to discover why waves appear in sets when they built a wave tank which launched an absolutely regular train of waves out of a little wave-making machine at one end of the tank.

Trouble was, when this train of waves reached the other end, it was no longer regular. It had organized itself into tiny little "sets". Hey! said the engineers. Our wave machine must not be working smoothly. So they put a lot of effort into making the tank and the machine absolutely precise and regular. But no go .. the wave trains *still* organized themselves into sets, no matter how carefully and uniformly they were launched.

So the engineers sat down and studied the equations that govern wave motion. They found that certain (very tiny and usually neglected) nonlinear terms in the equations of motion of deepwater waves act to transfer energy (very slowly) from the leading and trailing edge of a set of waves, toward the center waves. Thus the central waves get bigger at the expense of leading and trailing waves.

As a result, even if the wind is blowing absolutely uniformly, waves will still organize their energy into sets. This organization happens slowly, which is why local wind swells are less-well-organized than swells that have propagated thousands of miles. The mathematical name of the nonlinear interaction that creates sets in water waves is the "Benjamin-Feir Instability".



I have observed in the eastern Pacific that 'sets' come usually in a 3 wave pattern with two troughs in between. (5 wave pattern)

The second wave is usually the biggest (third EW wave)

Other 'sets' arrive in a 5 wave pattern with four troughs (9 EW waver)...this usually occurs when the surf is bigger.


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ehmu
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Hi Bill:

well yes it helps

I sea

and I do trust nature just a tad more than elliot to tell us the whole truth

wave organization in water is intriguing

similar things happen when cyclic electricity travels

Alberta has a lot of oil, a lot of beef, and bountiful elk, wild and domestic

Most people don't know about the waves here, we know them as foot hills


_____ n a m a s t e


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market_mad
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Monday, March 21, 2011 - 12:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 04:58 pm:

You would have made more money 'shorting' Prechter than following him!




Bit harsh given that he called the bottom at 6700 on the Dow and said that they would go on a multi month rally back up to 11,000 - pretty good return if you'd followed that advice. Even if you reversed that trade at 11,000 you'd still be well in the money over the past couple of years.

Do you subscribe to Prechter at EW? If not, hard to say what you said without evidence.

Just my view

Cheers
MM


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skyhawk
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Prechter got it right in 87 when he told his subscribers to get out
before the crash.

From 1987 till 2000: bearish. Listening to him you would
have missed 10k Dow points!!!

Called 2000 high but not 2003 low: another 7K Dow points
missed.
Called the 2007 peak well ( but be was bearish for 4 years before that so
was bound to get it right sooner or later)

Called the 2009 low about 1-2 months before actual.
Was calling to go 200% short Aug last year. Another dud call.

By contrast G4 called 2009 low to the week, and have been long (and still long) since then......

I think Mr Precter is relying on past glories to keep his reputation
intact......

Cheers


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market_mad
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I stand corrected Skyhawk - I haven't been following Precther for that long but believe what you say...

Hail to the G4
Give yourselves a pat on the back...

Cheers
MM


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skyhawk
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No continuation for the bears just yet!!
8Hr Cycles Analysis suggested we had further to rise from the lows (until mean reversion targets are reached), and that is what we market be doing if this is in fact an impulse wave (XAO). Hopefully we will see one tonight in the SPX too

Perhaps we can see a retest of the Feb highs in the next week or so.

Still think this is sub-wave b of major wave 4 we are tracing out. Because major wave 2 low last years was a sharp deep correction, Law Of Alternation suggests major wave 4 will contain distribution and be sideways before we put a final high in, in the next few months

Cheers



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skyhawk
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MM,

I was subscribed to Prechter from 1998 to 2004. I have to thank him for teaching me about EW via his subscriptions and course.
But I could not make and money from his service. In 2004 I took control of my financial future completely and decided to discontinue his service.

Basically EW in isolation was not enough, and in my opinion EWI is ignorant of the fact that other methods can enhance EW substantially.

For example when applying EW we look for 2-3 counts to be pointing to the same conclusion in order to take a high probability trade. Unfortunately there are not many instances when this is the case.
As such I have found combining EW with other methods, in particular time, gives you more high probability scenarios to trade from, and keeps you on the right side of the market more often than just relying on EW in isolation.

Only talking from my own experiences here. Others might not agree.
There are three things that are most important: pattern, price and time. EW only cover pattern

Cheers


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billt
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 05:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A few options on SPX:

1. Bullish. Wave iv has completed at 1249. Wave 3 - 3 - 1 UP completed at 1300. 3 -1 target 1315.

2. Bullish. Wave iv has yet to complete. Currently carving out a wave B, before back testing the trend line early April to complete iv.

3. Bearish. Wave 5 completed at 1344. Completed a 1-2, i-ii DOWN at 1300. Wave iii-3 DOWN tomorrow. Check out my post 758 above – we have just tagged the EMA 50, so we are continuing to repeat the April correction pattern.


Andrew, Your comment cannot be dismissed (option 2):

“Still think this is sub-wave b of major wave 4 we are tracing out. Because major wave 2 low last years was a sharp deep correction, Law Of Alternation suggests major wave 4 will contain distribution and be sideways before we put a final high in, in the next few months”







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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 07:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I think that pretty well covers the main scenarios.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Hello Bill,

I would say that major wave 4 is more than just a possibility here.
8th Cycles suggested a mean reversion to at least the current levels.

I am glad I went long last Thursday, and will
probably close out today and wait for a 1-2 day pullback
here.
They key now is for the largest of the cycles
I look at in the 8th cycles analysis.
If it is pointed up, then a pullback will be a good
place to re enter for the next leg up to retest
Feb highs.

You can now see the problems most EW people
face while using EW in isolation: Too many
possibilities, and our job as traders is to reduce
the possibilities, in order to take higher probability
trades.
Fibonacci also works wonders!!!

Cheers


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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 07:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

I tend to agree with you. My XMJ and XXJ ITD charts point to a short pull back in this time frame.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 11:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Without your cycle work, all these EW options look the business!

Neely & Prechter followers will be loading up 'short' big time....if they haven't already.

Very strong FA news posted on ODB from USA to support your final leg north guys...


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rdumas
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Possible EW Count for S&P500

Hi Folks,


PUGs has just posted his count for the S&P500 and he suggests that the move up from 1249.05 are the first 4 waves of Minor wave 1. His count is valid but I personally don't like the proportionality of this Minute waves (2) and (4).

At this point in time I tend to agree with Andrew in that wave 4 is still in the process of evolving. To me I find that the patterns look corrective in nature and more consistent with the formation of a wave B of wave 4.

As I expect the market to commence being bullish by Friday at the latest I would expect the lower level wave b to complete quickly enabling a strong move up to commence towards the end of the week.

Andrew and I expect wave B to complete early April.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Thursday, March 24, 2011 - 10:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



is this a possible alternate count ?




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

I'm delighted that you've now got the hang of those 5 wave corrective patterns. Your fear of them appears to have disappeared and understanding of them is now excellent.

One way of checking to see if your count would be valid is to see what the next level up would be of your proposed count. You can see that your proposed pattern can only be another Triple 3 pattern [WXY(XX)Z] as shown in the chart below.




Unfortunately the Z wave of a Triple 3 pattern cannot be either a DX or TX (ie, Double or Triple Zigzag or 3) pattern. For that reason your proposed pattern is unfortunately not valid.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, March 24, 2011 - 02:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

What looks more probable.....tend to agree





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billt
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Thursday, March 24, 2011 - 06:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AGQ Ultra Silver


Dolphin, your thoughts were: "38.2% - 50% of last wave plus lower 1/3 of last 4th wave" ...... you won!

I waited until the EMAs crossed and piled back in....

Debasement of major currencies, geopolitical problems, etc, etc...let's see where this gets to.





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ehmu
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Friday, March 25, 2011 - 12:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Thanks for the description regarding the intraday wave analysis for SPX.

The cheat sheet is a bit too abbreviated for my needs, so I'll make it my long range objective to decipher it to a level that I can understand it.

H

ps
I wasn't really scared; but when I looked behind me, the throngs of people falling back from me whilst they raced to escape EW sure seemed to be scared.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Friday, March 25, 2011 - 10:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys


Is this the sort of ABC move you are expecting?


With the MACD putting in an bearish divergence, the RSI and STO in oversold territory, and prices nearing the grey trendline, perhaps we may see this next leg down to complete wave iv?


Does your cycle/delta suggest that the 1249 will be taken out? Any revised timing for the completion of iv?





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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

I agree that the cheat sheet is highly abbreviated. Once you break the abbreviation code it's really useful.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, March 25, 2011 - 10:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Our cycle work suggests that the medium term low is already in for the SPX hence the the most likely scenario is a Triangle pattern such as the one below. This would suggest a higher low is on the cards for any decline.

At present we still think that the current B rally will not complete until early April however a smaller pull back early next week within this B wave is on the cards. The last comment is my view as I haven't checked that with Andrew so can't speak on his behalf.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, March 25, 2011 - 02:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy,

The bearish count still looks reasonably believable, so I post it just in case anyone is thinking of an early April iii of 3.




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rdumas
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Not a bad idea Bill. Looks like I may have timed my exit from the market to perfection. It will be interesting to see what Polly does tonight.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, March 25, 2011 - 04:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting to note that both SPX & XJO have completed a 3 wave move over the last week.


Is it the completion of a B wave of an ABCDE wave iv OR Prechter's 1/2, i/ii?






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mastersl46
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Hi Everyone? Could the move up from the 1250 on the SPX just be an a wave of a B wave of the 4th? Could we expect a 3 wave move south (b of B), followed by a 5 wave move north (c of B)& then a C wave down to complete the 4th? Any suggestions?


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rdumas
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Hi mastersl46,

You will find that I dealt with that question as it relates to the XJO in my weekend Market Wrap on Saturday (see chart below). A similar scenario is suggested for the S&P500.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, March 28, 2011 - 10:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible Short Term XJO EW Count

Further to my post on the non EW watching thread. If the XJO does have weakness over the next few days (refer to my anticipated Conti chart low on the 1st April) then one possible short term EW count for the XJO would be as follows.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
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