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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through April 22, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through April 22, 2011

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rdumas
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Post Number: 4717
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Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 10:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

The following EW count for the S&P500 flies in the face of virtually every EW analyst's counts that I have seen on the web. I look forward to seeing how close it is to reality.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 10:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good chart Rudy.
Well looks like Prechter and were on the wrong side of the market again.
Ten trading days ago we said a low was in and a resumption of the
bull trend will continue. My fib time, fixed time, and dynamic cycles
analysis suggest a high for this leg by Monday/Tuesday and so will close
out my longs then.
We will get a correction, but individual stocks that I trade, have short
term cycles analysis profiles that suggest the largest of their cycles won't top until late April, and so corrections should be viewed as buying
opportunities until the expected top on the bull run comes by June

cheers







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rdumas
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Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 10:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Andrew.

I too had my variable cycles and Conti cycles suggesting a top on Monday or Tuesday but because I know that we can get a few days slippage I decided to take my profits yesterday afternoon at the peak of the market high.

I'm happy to sit on that profit and wait until the next safe opportunity.

Whilst the next few trading days could possibly attempt to get to the next Fib ratio I tend to doubt that and I'm not willing to expose my capital having a punt.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 02:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



You are not alone Rudy,


One of pug's mates, waveprinciple.blogspot.com has a similar count:





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rdumas
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Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 02:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It's always nice to have some company Bill.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 04:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everyone, Does anyone have a view that this leg up could possibly be a Wave 1 of 5 for all the indeces? So the 4th wave has already finished.We could be looking at a pullback to 4672 & then a 3rd wave to 5000+ !! Does anyone else have a leaning towards this scenario? Many thanks on any feedback.
Rudy, if you placed a chart on post 4717, my computer is not picking it up so if you are suggesting a wave 1 of 5 on that chart, then cudos to you!!!!


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billt
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Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 04:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Masters

Four basic EW ideas prevail, so take your pick!

1. Prechter's View: Ultra Bearish: 1344 was the top, heading south in a 1/2, i/ii;

2. Rudy's/G4 view: Wave 4 still to complete, then one final rally north, before a multi month trip south; (others say wave 4 completed & we are rolling with wave 5, with the same end game)

3. Pug's view: Bullish...Primary count is that wave i-3 of minor 3-5-P3 ended at 1331.74;

4. Caldaro's View: Ultra Bullish ...3 - 3 UP of SC3 just beginning



So Prechter's gang are 'all in' with the 'bears', and Caldaro's gang are 'all in' with the 'bulls'....


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mastersl46
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Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 09:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Billt, Thanks for the reply, I am going to add 1 more count to the mix, stating that the 4th wave is over & the move up from 1250 is Wave 1 of 5. Attached is a chart. I call it "The Masters view". The key is around the 1280 - 90 mark, probably being retested next week. The G4's cycle analysis of June being a high may fit in well with this count. The main thing i suppose is the channel the SPX is in from July 10. It could still be doing a 4th & the C wave may retest the bottom channel. I think the super bullish counts have less potential & Prechter always predicts doom & gloom when the market makes a retracement. The same thing may happen next week as it did in late Aug/Sep 2010 when everyone thinks its a 3 of 3 of 1 down & it moves 100 points in the opposite direction!!
My guru cycle master has 8/11 April as a potential turning point. If any of the 4G's are reading this, do you see these dates as any significance? Many thanks once again for any replys.





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rdumas
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Friday, April 01, 2011 - 11:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Lee,

I have sent you the chart that I posted in my post 4717 by PM.

As for your date of the 8/11 April I have already mentioned many times my anticipated interim top date of the 5th April. Those dates are guides and not guaranteed dates because cycles tend to slip and slide in both directions so it is impossible to nominate a specific date with any degree of accuracy.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Friday, April 01, 2011 - 12:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey, Rudy...

Is this(XJO) an "April Fool's Day" move or what....?

Now I know its almost nie on impossible to get a comfortable count on the XJO since the Mar.15th/17th "tweezer" double bottom low BUT can at least(I think) rule out your latest attempt on this thread(post 4706 above) so wondered if either of these two possibilities I have shown below is at at "feasible". One still ties in with your favoured 'cyclical' feelings( ~ April 5th high or even today)for a "B" wave high of the "4" still looking for; the other has the "4" in place and a very "bullish" completion of a Wave 1 out for the run into May/June 'big' "B" bear market rally started at Nov.07 high?

Both counts still suggest a pullback soon(day or two) but obviously differ in their expectations of strength.

Or is this all an "April Fool's Day" count!




Have a great weekend.

Dolphin


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billt
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Friday, April 01, 2011 - 02:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

It's Friday, and Rudy has made a few bob in the last few weeks, so I expect the 'lobster' is being chomped on as I post. If the SC & C hasn't kicked in, perhaps we may get some words of wisdom later today....

On SPX, if 1249 completed wave 4, Pug's count in black puts us in (3)-3-[5]. Something about the lower order count doesn't feel right - particularly the lack of notation from 1278.88.

There are other counts making 1288.88 the completion of 1-[5] but the count that follows looks less than convincing. Wave 3-[5] seems to be stalling in velocity, which makes me feel Wave 4 has yet to complete?

I have a preference for the 'blue count', wxy which may have completed at 1331.74 with a 5 wave pattern off the 1305.26? It seems to fit with Rudy & Andrew's 'Cyclopes' work...

SPX is sitting on a lower trend line, and has another just south with a nice gap to fill below....divergences perhaps signal a correction south?

There are similarities in XJO too as you have pointed out Dolphin...





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billt
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Friday, April 01, 2011 - 02:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



In terms of XJO, it appears to me that it is in a very similar position as SPX.

If Wave 4 has completed, XJO could be in the process of completing 3-[5]. The corrections since the Double Bottom appear to be at the same level, so perhaps 4-[5] awaits. However, that doesn't fit with the "cyclops" work unless we are at a lower order of count and we are still to complete 1-[5]?

To me, the 'Blue Count' looks the likely candidate as a WXY completion of Wave B of 4, with Y = W. (give or take)





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billt
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Friday, April 01, 2011 - 03:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting to note that $IUX (US Small Caps) has made a new 3 year high and is closing in on 2007 tops!!

...oops Prechter will need to shift his Primary Count once again on 'Little Polly'...

$IUX certainly gives the impression that it is well into Wave v as it has cleared the resistance top of iii....





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ehmu
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Saturday, April 02, 2011 - 02:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Friday, April 01, 2011 - 03:29 pm:

$IUX certainly gives the impression that it is well into Wave v as it has cleared the resistance top of iii....




I may be all wet here, but I'll stick my neck out and say that the length of A-a on your chart may turn out to be similar to the length of b-B on your chart.

If that is the case then we will likely see a price on $IUX of ~$10 if your wave count is valid, and if wave a turns out to be near symmetrical with wave c.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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skyhawk
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Saturday, April 02, 2011 - 08:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

At this stage looking for sub wave b of major wave 4 to complete Tuesday afternoon on the all ords if reading correctly. I think perhaps another 20-30 points more than what it opens on Monday. (SPI futures up 33pts). If I am correct about the wavecount then sub wave c of major wave 4 will commence then and carry the index down into the 21st April which is my next cycle based turn date

Cheers


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ehmu
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Saturday, April 02, 2011 - 10:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

I did a lousy job trying to explain what I was seeing in yur graph about iux, i'm including a chart of institutional investors index to illustrate that I think your wave c or wave B has a ways to go yet. Possibly up to the long term downtrend line.





_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Monday, April 04, 2011 - 05:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Andrew & Hal,

I agree guys...US Small Caps looks to have started it's i of 5 ahead of SPX. It often leads the Big Boys north (or south).

I am trading (3x Bull $IUX) TNA, and it has rallied 32% in the last few weeks as IUX has made a charge north.

My upside target on IUX is 986. (C = A)

After the wave ii of 5 pullback we may have c.+25% gain to complete the 5th wave on IUX, which should produce a +75% gain on TNA.






The trip south on (x3 Bear $IUX) TZA later in the year will be epic!


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billt
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Friday, April 08, 2011 - 05:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

If 1339 was the top of b-4, we could see a considerable pullback on SPX over the next few trading days? How do you read it?






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rdumas
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Saturday, April 09, 2011 - 12:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I read it the same way you do. In my Market Wrap this weekend I have noted that for the first time since mid March, the SPX daily chart is starting to show some weakness and the rally has finally broken through the lower boundary of the ascending channel.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011 - 02:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy and fellow E.W.er's,

Rudy, however you justify the count up from the Double Bottom low(~4480) it seems clear that yesterday's high most likely has formed a reasonable swing high for the week at minimum. Why?...because we have a clear 5 wave structure down from the 4976.4 high yesterday and at best after a short rally from today's low the minuette structure shown strongly favours today's low will be taken out. Now the question will be whether we are in the early stages of an ABC zig-zag(for maybe only an [A] of a bigger ABC) or the early stages of a 12345 down!








Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. As a result, I have been 'lightening' off my portfolio exposure over the last two day's


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rdumas
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011 - 03:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I have been out all day and only just got home. I agree with your comments in the previous post. If you look at the Dynamic Time Analysis chart (my version of Delta) that I sent some of you a little while ago via PM you will note that the previous time that we went through a similar cycle the XJO dropped 6.6% in 8 calendar days.

I have mentioned in a previous post that I anticipate a significant low somewhere near the 20th April so it is entirely possible that we may get a similar scenario playing out this time. That is the timing and range that I will be working on as a guideline for this part of the cycle.

Here are some potential decline targets to keep in mind if we have indeed put in our significant high for this part of the cycle.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011 - 05:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I like the look of 1260 on SPX, but I can see a range between 1244 to 1283.

Transports and Baltic have pulled back sharpish over the past week, US Small Caps have followed....I expect Polly to spark up tonight?





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billt
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011 - 05:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



oops 4 should have been a 3 on that chart


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rdumas
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Thursday, April 14, 2011 - 08:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

There is always a danger in trying to count the 'squiggles' because they can lead us up the garden path at these low level time frames. In spite of that last comment I thought that I would take the risk and put a possible count on the latest XJO price action.

If I'm correct we should start seeing some more action on the downside shortly. Unfortunately I'll be out all day today so won't be able to see the fireworks.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, April 14, 2011 - 11:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Can't beat a good squiggle count...this must be your first squiggle for ages Rud'meister!

Polly appears to be behind XJO on the count south. Wave a-C looks yet to complete. I can see a range between 1244 to 1283, however Astro Boy's 1260 could complete the spiral within your cycle timeframe period, given the current angle of the trend.

Pug's count must have us in ii-5, which is always the alternative. His count for i-5 on his website looks a bit odd. The short term outcome however is similar.

I am starting to think that we may not have such an explosive wave 5 unless Uncle Ben keeps QE3 going and US GDP produces a reasonable Q1 printout later this month. A failed 5th might even eventuate, or an ending diagonal to eat up time with little uptick....? Time will tell...





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rash
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Thursday, April 14, 2011 - 02:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bill.

Just a quick update on the Mars Bars FYI. The Mars Bar chart is a monthly ... and provides us with a potential range for the month ahead.

But remember that on a daily basis, the Martians fall or rise during the month to give different targets for the following month.

The relevant price for that particular Mars line today is 1268.

By early next week ... Full Moon time ... it will be around 1273, about the same level as a primary Saturn line on Miss Pollyanna's Weekly Planets.

I'll insert a version of that chart ... but one which contains additional Saturns, plus Mercury & Mars to help pick up stalling points for daily bars.

1


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billt
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Thursday, April 14, 2011 - 03:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Randall for the spooky charts, and for reminding me that even in outer space, time (and price) does not stand still...

The next few days on Polly will give us a better picture. At this stage it appears that the first leg down a of C has yet to complete. If the 38% doesn't stop her (along with the spooky lines), then the 50% fib could be a target. A retrace back to the 38% then a trip further south to complete the run is my initial thought. If c=a, then Polly may pick up one of your lower coloured 'space age' lines to bounce off.

Alternatively, the 61% may be the termination with a 'mind the gap' zone just below for an intra day spike.

We have 'Joseph and the Technicolour Raincoat' series of spooky lines just below the 61% to give her something to play with - and I guess that is where your 1273 target is. The tangled spagetti at the 1273 area is an obvious area of support, so I'll readjust my wave 4 completion target to 1273!

thanks mate

bill





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rash
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Thursday, April 14, 2011 - 05:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My apologies for another brief interruption, E-Dubya people.

Bill ... I don't want to dissuade you from your preferred view and I realise it's a complete pain when someone puts forward an idea that throws one off one's game plan.

Just wanted to point out one thing, though ... not that I am a big fan of Gann complexities. Wednesday on the 500 was 135 days from the November low ... at 135 points. It MIGHT have been a squaring of Price&Time ... ie: a legitimate Low.

Not my preferred view, either. Chart shows the 135 calendar cycle, a Gann fan, and Gann price divisions. The relevance of the price divisions is pretty clear even from a cursory glance and the next lowest is at 1302, which is where the next Saturns are on the earlier chart (1306 & 1304) ... and roughly where you think the a of C will terminate.

Anyway ... just in case "something else" is happening.

Ciao - RA



1


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pjf000
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Thursday, April 14, 2011 - 07:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I don't really get all the technical stuff of EW but I came across this blogspot for those that are interested.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/


Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

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billt
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Friday, April 15, 2011 - 03:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...your right there Phillip - what they are telling us is not that promising....

If one of these RPV blow, Tokyo is still in the line of fire...as to what the markets would do to such an outcome is uncertain.

Here's some stuff!

Unit 1 looks ready to blow?

“Nitrogen gas is being injected into the Unit 1 containment vessel to reduce the possibility of hydrogen combustion within the containment vessel. The pressure in the RPV is increasing as indicated on one channel of instrumentation.” iaea

Units 1, 2 & 3 are all boiling?

“In Unit 1 the temperature at the feed water nozzle of the RPV is 206 °C and at the bottom of the RPV is 119 °C. In Unit 2 the temperature at the feed water nozzle of the RPV is 167 °C. In Unit 3 the temperature at the feed water nozzle of the RPV is 92 °C and at the bottom of the RPV is 119 °C.” iaea

What to do with the radioactive water?

“Japanese officials estimate about 57 million litres (equivalent to the water in 23 Olympic swimming pools!) of highly radioactive water have accumulated and hundreds of thousands of litres are added daily as the operator, the Tokyo Electric Power Company, continues to feed coolant into the leaky structures… there would be at least six months of emergency stabilisation, about two years of temporary remediation and up to 30 years of full-scale clean-up. Furthermore, the high levels of ground contamination at the site are raising concerns about the viability of individuals to work at the site in coming decades. A workforce in the hundreds or even thousands would take years or decades to clean up, experts said.” smh


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billt
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Friday, April 15, 2011 - 03:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



oops that post should have been on ODB - sorry


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rdumas
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Friday, April 15, 2011 - 03:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Phillip,

Yep, Daneric is a good EW analyst but is completely tied into the Prechter scenario which is why I don't agree with his higher level counts. Basically, Daneric and Prechter believe that we have topped out on the March 2009 rally and have started a trip to hell.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, April 15, 2011 - 04:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Randall,

Alternative thinking is always very welcomed Randall - always dive in AB...the more thoughts the better!

The current price action on Polly looks to be a 5 wave impulse down (1339 - 1302). Now that could be the completion of wave C of a zigzag, of a flat, or wave a-C.

If it is the completion of wave C of a a zigzag, wC>0.7*wB. That target is <1276.18....so we have some more to go.

If it is a flat, wC O/L wA. That would take us below the 1249 low.

So that leaves us with the probability that this wave C has yet to complete. If a-C has completed, and if b-C is soon to complete, wave C target would be c.1280 (wave c = wave a)

That also ties up nicely with the multi month lower trend line and the target for the zigzag. It also targets the 61% fib, the gap, and the 'spooky' spagetti zone.


Rudy, please correct me if I have this a... up!








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rdumas
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Friday, April 15, 2011 - 04:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks okay to me Bill


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, April 15, 2011 - 04:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks rudy


...just noticed that there are two sets of gaps on Polly (according to Pug), 1280/82, & 1273/77. (1273.72)

If the Martians are at 1273 - they have already put their fairy dust into play.

With targets for the zigzag <1276.18, I'll take the spooky number/gap @ 1273.72 for my lotto number this month. 76.4% fibo is @ 1270.39.


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billt
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Saturday, April 16, 2011 - 10:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If an abc completes the run south, prices to bounce off the lower trendline later next week. Target now perhaps in the 1285 zone.












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rdumas
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Sunday, April 17, 2011 - 03:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

Having a look at a 'birds eye' view of the SPX I can see at least 3 relatively bullish possibilities.

The first scenario is that Minute wave 2 of Minor wave 5 either has or is nearing completion. All things considered, this is my most likely scenario at present.



I give the next two scenarios lower probabilities of being correct than the above scenario.

Scenario 2 is my next likely scenario. In this scenario Minute wave 2 of Minor wave 5 is not yet complete. I would only have subminuette wave a of Minute 2 complete and subminuette wave b of Minute 2 in progress.

The third scenario is that Minor wave 4 is not yet completed. This now is my least likely scenario. In this scenario Minor wave 4 would only have completed Minute waves a and b.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011 - 07:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The sell off overnight on SPX, gives greater probability to the count I posted on Saturday.

As we have not had a new high made since the 1344 on 22 February, there is a growing likelihood that we may be still in a wave 4. Ultimately, the appearance of iii of 5 will give us the final answer.

The more likely outcome is a trip to the 61% fib zone for the completion of this leg south, a tag of the lower multi month trend line, perhaps fill a gap, then up we go.

If prices break through the lower multi month trend line all bets are off. A 1/2 DOWN count off the 1344 may need to be considered. Cycle analysis doesn't support that idea - but the five wave count off the 1010 low would prevail, and is in the back of my mind.

1283.59 is the target for now, and it would align with your short term cycle timing perfectly Rudy.





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billt
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011 - 07:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Perfect IHS to support wave 5





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rdumas
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011 - 08:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

We are in full agreement. In my view this down move will complete this week and the indices will be heading up again towards the end of the week.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011 - 02:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ETF GOLD

For anyone trading ETF GOLD, here is my current target for the stock.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011 - 02:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Fo the various EW counts for the SPX that I monitor, the one that sits best with me is the one that Eckert has underway.
It fits perfectly with all of our analysis.





It is scenario 3 of my recent post 4774. I had previously nominated it as my least likely scenario but it has moved up the rung substantially due to the recent price action.





(Message edited by rdumas on April 19, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, April 20, 2011 - 08:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

I have a preference for Eckert too.

What has caused considerable variances to the SPX counts is how to label the November 2010 correction - and the count thereafter.

I am growing somewhat concerned about announcements by our Superman Ben, who may on 27 April announce that QE is dead, and no more fuel for the SPX fire? That may spook the cattle.....





On the following day, US GDP figures will be announced which will show a significant reversal. That may unsettle the herd even more.....


The market of course is a crazy beast, but putting that reality into the mix an EW count that perhaps sits with that outcome, and provides a further high is a that we are in a 5th Wave Ending Diagonal (with a failing diagonal 3/4/5 currently forming):









The alternative bearish count is that the 5 waves up concluded on SPX @ 1344, and we have formed a 1/2 down. The US banking index $BKX would support that view. Negative Divergences on lots of indice also give weight to that count.



...however, to put some support to the Eckert count I post a 'Domed House' that is doing the rounds....









The ending of this pattern was never going to be easy, considering the enormous problems in the system.


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rdumas
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Wednesday, April 20, 2011 - 08:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I can understand all of the uncertainty that abounds due to the sort of things you mention in your post however Andrew's cycles have never led me too far astray and as far as I'm concerned, I continue to believe in the 4 year cycle peaking in the June period and that the February 18th highs will be taken out in the final rally leg.

The 21st April date is not only a Conti cycle date but it is also a strong Fibonacci date and I feel quite confident that a low is near by and we will be on our way next week.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, April 20, 2011 - 10:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Wednesday, April 20, 2011 - 08:37 am:

a 'Domed House' that is doing the rounds....




IMO a doomed house, perhaps fabricated by a consortium of managers of hedge funds, pension funds, quant funds, mutual funds and probably Donald Trump is in there somewhere. (all trying to round up the last of the victims with cash in their pockets)

I would guess that the dome is the bait, and that there will be the token head fake (number 21 on your chart), then..28,29 & 30 in rapid succession.... life boats by appointment only.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Wednesday, April 20, 2011 - 11:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

I totally agree with your comments Rudy regarding Andrew's Cycle Count, and without it we might be a lot more lost!

I guess my 'bastardised' 5th wave 'ending diagonal' count gives the possibility of a June ending, whilst the market whipsaws itself into a frenzy of uncertainty in the next 6 weeks or so.

Your post Rudy back on GOLD had me reviewing the ETF. I sold out back at the high late last year (on your concerns at the time), and switched over to AGQ which has tripled in value since late January.

The EW count on GOLD looks to me to be in an extended corrective pattern since the February 2009 high. Perhaps a huge Double Three, and a Triple Three to complete wave Y?

The rallies on GOLD have been few and far between in the last 2 years, with the main rally occurring back at the XJO correction in May 2010.

If a SPX/XJO Wave 5 north to much higher levels occurs in the coming weeks, $AUD may run to $1.10. This might result in GOLD 's final push south for a Wave 2 finish at Y?

Wave 3 UP might be spectacular!....but I'll wait until June...As and when the SPX/XJO crash arrives, GOLD will be a worthy short to the market as the $AUD gets put back into it's box and POG ultimately flies higher. The +200% rally of GOLD prior to Feb 2009 might look tame by comparison to the Wave 3 when it arrives shortly.















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billt
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Wednesday, April 20, 2011 - 11:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






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billt
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Friday, April 22, 2011 - 07:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If we are to have a final push north for wave 5 (and the Cycle Count says we will), Eckert's count still looks favorite to me. A break above 1344.07 will confirm the count. However, if we break the trend line to the south…..?




There are still many indicators warning of a different outcome, that 1344 marked the top of the five wave pattern off the 1010 low, and the two month distribution phase is about to end:

VIX has closed below the LBB twice in a row, both below 15, closing on a record low – could that signal that a significant move south for the major indices?

Negative Divergences on many Weekly charts?

$TRAN (Transports) well below previous high, which does not support the new high on the Dow?

$BKX/$SPX divergence – US Financials are heading in the opposite direction to SPX?

$RUT (US Small Caps) – is following $TRAN, and not the SPX/DOW which is unusual, as RUT normally leads the others north?



Next week US GDP quarter figures will turn south (past significant tops occurred at these swing shifts of GDP), and Uncle Ben may signal the end of QE2, which has been the ‘fuel’ to this 10 month rally?


Happy Easter to all - hope the Bunny comes...










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rdumas
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Friday, April 22, 2011 - 09:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Whilst Eckert may be right the possible EW count that I posted on the 15th April may also be in play.




The following chart shows the current rally leg and the wave counts in play as I see them.





If Eckert is correct then the index will start heading south in a pretty large fall. If I am correct then we should continue going up with only small retracements as I am anticipating a Minute wave 3 to form over the next short term period.

The other possibility is that Minute wave 2 still hasn't completed and we still need a wave 'c' to complete that wave pattern.

The lunar phase that we are entering next week should be a positive one. If this lunar phase does it's normal thing then that would favour my EW count and not Eckert's.

There is no doubt that we are a point of recognition because we are virtually at a triple top at this point in time.

I do however feel that my count will probably be proven to be correct as we are running out of time for achieving the top of the March 2009 rally. There are some very strong confluences indicating that the top will be put in place sometime around the 6~13th June. I know that this is a period greatly favoured by Andrew. My cycle analysis suggests that this could indeed be the period however it also suggests that a period a few weeks earlier than this (ie, mid to late May) is also a possibility.

(Message edited by rdumas on April 22, 2011)







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Friday, April 22, 2011 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

My work with the McLellan W%R to extrapolate the shortening cycles, and flag shape for A/D influence showed the A/D cresting exactly when the price crested on pretty well all markets.

The date for the price crest was April 7-8.

My guestimate for the next minor crest is May 9-10.

My guestimate for the next major crest is May 27 or May 31. This will be a long weekend in North America. My opinion is that this date will mark the beginning of a significant decline. It will start early if some of the younger managers get the old itchy trigger finger, if not then I would think that May 31 we will know if S&P is going to 1550 instead.

I haven't all together forgotten my idea that the old farts will likely do a major head fake at the beginning of the next trend (either up or down). This is an ego thing for them, they don't actually make that much money on the head fake, but they make a grand spectacle to punctuate their brilliance.

If the bullish option plays out, there is about 10% gain remaining up to the next resistance---long term falling trend line. Not too shabby on an index in 26-28 trading days.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

 
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