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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through May 09, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through May 09, 2011

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rdumas
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Friday, April 22, 2011 - 11:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

There's no doubt that we will have to use every available tool in our TA tool box to make sure that we're not caught late in the cycle attempting to trade in the wrong direction. Every method has its limitations and I personally will be playing it very conservatively. Your dates certainly chime with mine at present but watching momentum and channels should help us navigate this pattern.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, April 22, 2011 - 04:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My contribution is the following Road Map, consisting of Rudy’s & Andrew’s suggested zones for a wave 5 top, as well as labeling an ‘Elk’ top in late May.

To keep us ‘honest’ I have also labeled 1344 as a possible top of wave 5, just in case next week gets ugly when QE & GDP news are announced in quick succession, and the bulls go into a massive retreat. At the time Uncle Ben is telling us his news by press conference, Pug (who has a reasonable good record to date) has us in a correction back to the 1319-32 zone, so I just hope the herd doesn’t run to exits. I find to hard to imagine what positive news can come out of GDP being halved in Q1 2011 and QE being mothballed - perhaps Ben might continue to pump in a little more??

If Wave 5 has yet to complete, we may have a target at c. 1430 level. This equates to the IHS target, the wave 5 = wave 1 target (but that is somewhat movable depending on your view where 4 completed), a 38.2% fib extension (1431), and a 'spooky' target too.

If we get through next week staying above the lower trend line, then I will be a little more relaxed that the 1430 is achievable.

I'm still playing by the 'idiot'- trying not to be influenced by what my mind is saying!









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rdumas
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Friday, April 22, 2011 - 04:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

This late in the game I believe in taking one potential target at the time and having achieved that, I then move to the next one. I do anticipate that we will exceed the 18th February top of 1344.07. On that premise my target is the 38.2% Fib extension at 1431.05. There are a number of Fibonacci confluences at around the 1430 level so that is an obvious level to aim for in the short term.






Check out the short term Fibonacci confluence levels in the following chart. So in the two charts presented we have 3 Fibonacci levels sitting near the 1430 level. That will definitely cause the index to consider further upward movement.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, April 22, 2011 - 06:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy

I tend to agree that if we clear the previous 1344 then the targets you suggest are the most likely.

Over the course of the next few months I intend to play each minor leg, to avoid being invested on the wrong side of the eventual big dip.

I have been looking at the SPX 5 min chart, and I tend to agree with Pug's short term count. There is enough evidence that we may see another high at this point, before a correction next week. There is enough negative divergence to give the impression that a pullback will occur.

The W%14 signal 'Bull' Buy-In on 19th, echoed the SMA crossovers on the 5 min. Buying in at the bottom of ii always appeals.

The 1294 was heralded by a 'big dipper' on the RSI & MACD which signalled the low...it gave a very good signal to exit my 'bears' and an earlier entry for an early averaging play for the 'bulls'. It was pretty obvious that we had arrived!

I intend to exit my 'Bull' ETFs totally on the EMA crossover on the 5 min, and position the 'Bears' for whatever it gives up. I am starting the sell off at the peaks. I have retuned the Williams @ W%7 for the next week. It may be a quick trade, before bouncing back into the Bulls...as long as we get through the week unscathed by Ben, etc...


...never a dull moment trading both sides of the fence - particularly at the end of the rally!








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billt
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Wednesday, April 27, 2011 - 10:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A minor pullback in SPX looks to be on the cards, with many short term indicators at oversold levels, and divergences in play.

An Ending Diagonal (ED) is in play if we have an early finish to the 5th wave. The waves off 1249 could easily fit an ED pattern.

If 1344 was the top of wave 1 of the ED, then we have a credible count for a top at this juncture. If this week's announcements from the Fed & US GDP give far too much grief, then we have the exit count....(haven't spotted that count anywhere else so I'll trademark that one)

The trip to 1440 looks still the marginal favorite. After this pullback we are poised for the iii of 3 leg UP rally...but Polly will have to do it with a decidedly sharp decline in US GDP to be announced later this week, and without Uncle Ben propping us up with QE3?

My probabilities are not overly confident on a big 5th wave finish:

1440 finish - 55%
ED, waves 4 & 5 to come - 30%
ED completing now - 15%




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rdumas
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Thursday, April 28, 2011 - 05:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible S&P500 EW Count

Further to my EW count in the Weekend Market Wrap I have made a slight change to the last part of the count to reflect what may occur in the coming few days.

In the Weekend Market Wrap I suggested that it was possible that Minute wave 2 may not have been complete. That is still a possibility however the other possibility is that we are about to start a Minuette wave 2 instead. The potential difference between the two is the depth to which the fall goes.






I suspect that tonight the SPX may move up initially however I suspect that it will probably be limited to between 1360 and 1364 (max) and then the above decline would follow.

Whilst the Lunar studies suggested that we would probably make a top at the 3rd May, the following Conti chart for the XJO suggests that it will probably be a low. This would line up nicely with one of the two scenarios suggested above for the SPX.





The following chart provides potential turning points for the SPX in tonight's trading session. The Fibonacci levels are determined using both the extension of the previous rally leg and the alternate methodology where the ratios associated with the previous rally leg are superimposed on the current rally leg.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Thursday, April 28, 2011 - 08:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy,

McHugh has this to say in today's report:

"The Russell 2000 closed at a new all-time high Wednesday, April 27th, confirming our big picture scenario that says Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} did not top in 2000 or in 2007, but is topping now. This is incredible, to think that the Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} decline has not even started yet, that the 2000 to 2003 and 2007 to 2009 plunges were not part of that massive Bear Market, which lies in our not too distant future, instead of our present or past."

How does this fit with your analysis?


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rdumas
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Friday, April 29, 2011 - 10:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 Closes at 123.6% Fibonacci Level

In last night's trading session the S&P500 peaked at 1361.71 but finally closed at the 123.6% Fibonacci level........ well ...... within 0.32 points of it anyway.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, April 29, 2011 - 11:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

I can't argue with McHugh because I can't find a long term chart for the Russell 2000. The following is the long term chart for the DOW dating back to 1900. I have labelled it according to the count that I believe may be possible.

To put the labelling in some sort of context, Super Cycle wave 2 was the 1929 crash and lasted from 1929 to 1932. As the chart is logarithmic it puts the various percentage drops in context. It sort of puts the 1987 crash in context with some of the other drops that have occurred in the last 111 years.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, April 29, 2011 - 02:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys

In respect to the DOW count Rudy, I only hope that we have completed the initial lower order wave 1 of SC3, as a SC4 at this point could be devastating!...nevertheless, we have enough 'horrors' in the FA mix to support the idea!

Back to Polly....a few days of negative divergence hasn't stopped the girl, but as she has now touched the UBB a couple of times she may roll over at this point.

The ED count is alive and well, but a retrace back to the 61% area (50 day ma) would be required to continue the idea. An ED fits with your 'early' timing, but it certainly couldn't extend to fit into Andrew's mid to late June timetable.

A minor correction back to the 1330-39 area (38 fibo/support/wave iv zone/20 day ma), would have us in better shape to hit Andrew's cycle targets.

Cycle timing points have been the key for the past two years - it certainly has been a very valuable tool, perhaps the jewel. Any updates on any revisions to cycle end dates always appreciated....






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rdumas
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Friday, April 29, 2011 - 03:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I find any discussions on Super Cycle patterns to be pretty academic. It's tough enough getting the lower order waves correct. So taking it step by step, if we assumed that we are close to the completion of Minuette wave 1 then the following chart suggests potential targets for Minuette wave 2.

Note that two of the target levels are just below gaps in the rally leg.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, April 29, 2011 - 04:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just in case the $VIX decides that the time is up, I'll bag this blowoff ED count for EW 'Count of the Year' bragging rights.....

(I wouldn't engrave anything as yet....)





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billt
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Friday, April 29, 2011 - 05:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just to put a bit more flesh on the bones of my madness, looking at the recent patterns led me to see an Ending Diagonal cor-cor-cor-cor-cor setup....





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rdumas
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Sunday, May 01, 2011 - 02:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P500 EW Count

In this weekend's Market Wrap I suggested that the following EW count for the S&P500 could be in play.




Now with a number of medium term technicals (ie, daily indicators on daily charts) for this index displaying a very bullish sentiment it would be reasonable to suggest that the Minute wave 3 would keep on persisting and lead to a continuing rally from current price levels.

What I have suggested however is that a Minuette wave 1 may be topping and hence a short term retracement could take place very early next week.

I thought that it would be worth while explaining why I had come to that conclusion. If we look at the intraday 80 minute chart that shows a couple of the technicals we can see that a short term divergence has developed between the price action and LOI in the current rally similar to that which occurred in the earlier rally.




Naturally enough we all know that divergences can sometimes continue for some time before the price action changes trend however there is another aspect that suggests to me that a short term retrace may be coming in the very near future.

If we look at the following chart which is taken over the same 80 minutes as the previous chart. This time however I am focussing on a couple of aspects.

The first telling aspect is that we have formed two contracting wedge type of patterns in the rallies being observed. Contracting wedges tend to occur in wave 1's and wave 5's and not wave 3's. Hence my view that we are in a 1/2, 1/2 type of pattern at present (ie, 1/2 at Minute level and 1/2 at Minuette level).

The second aspect is that the Minuette wave 1 contracting wedge appears to have broken down at the peak, indicating that a retrace may be about to develop.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 03:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible XJO Short Term EW Count

If my suspicions are correct and the XJO is to continue its journey southward then one possible EW count would be the following. This count would anticipate a move up this afternoon to around the 4825~4830 level.




(Message edited by rdumas on May 02, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 04:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

Just further to that last post. Randall correctly pointed out to me via a pm that that the move down from the 11th April would be an A wave. That would mean that the move up from the 19th April would be a B wave and the move down from the 27th April should be either a completed C wave or wave 1 of that C wave. It needs to be one of those two cases because a wave C must be impulsive. Therefore if the impulse wave down that completed today is not the end of the pattern then it would therefore only be wave 1 of the 5 wave pattern required to complete the C wave.

Whilst it is possible that the C wave may have completed, my Conti charts still indicate that the low is more than likely to come towards the end of the week rather the beginning.

Counting EW's at this level can quite often lead us astray but if you look at the first move up from the low today (see dashed red line) you will note that it was a 3 wave move and not an impulse. For a new impulse to have commenced from the low today you would expect the move to be impulsive.





Tomorrow should give us some idea as to which of the two scenarios is correct. If we start moving down again tomorrow then it is highly likely that there is still a pretty large downward move to go yet.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, May 04, 2011 - 12:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No real indicator on XJO to give the impression that this correction has completed as yet.

Your count Rudy looks more convincing, but perhaps we may get a 5 wave count completed by the end of this week, if we have just completed 4 of 5?





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rdumas
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Wednesday, May 04, 2011 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I tend to agree and we'll probably get our bottom tomorrow, which would be a day early. I think that we probably only have the 5th of the 5th wave left to go. It is possible that the last wave 4 may still be incomplete and hence may have a bit more upside. Otherwise we'll head straight down tomorrow in the 5th leg.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 08:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Rudy - XJO is all set up on the W%14 for some action north, so it doesn't look that far away unless Polly holds things up.


Polly gives the impression that she may have another leg south to travel, as the last leg up off the 1341 looks to be a 3 way move. The 61% fib target @ 1324 fits with the lower trend line off the 1249 low.

$RUT has given up 76% in this correction, so perhaps Polly may leak some more. None of the fast indicators are suggesting that this SPX correction is over. Trend line is intake.

However, there is a case that 1341 was the low, as we have some bullish divergence in place and fast STO & W%7 are not far off reaching the take off zone.

An Ending Diagonal still a possible finish on SPX? A trip to 1324 now will increase the odds.





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rdumas
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 08:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MY S&P500 EW COUNT

Following is my current count for the S&P500 for the short term. As stated in an earlier post, I believe that we are in the midst of forming Minuette wave 2.




Following shows my earlier posted longer term chart putting the last chart into some perspective.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 08:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I was in the midst of composing the above post at the time that you sent that last post. Looks like we're suggesting a similar outcome (ie, a move down to the 1325 level).

As far as the XJO is concerned our posts yesterday suggested that we could possibly put in a low today or tomorrow as per the Conti cycle prediction. In spite of this I am concerned about the fact that our Loony Tune studies suggest that one of the most negative lunar cycles that we have is the one from 1Q to full moon.

On that basis I will be keeping a careful eye on all of our methodologies in attempting to determine the future direction of the market rather than depending solely on the EW analysis.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 09:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Bill and Rudy,

If the SPX holds above 1340 in this decline, I think it will be in a very strong position to move higher in the next 5 weeks :-)

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 10:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Thanks for that insight. I had done a possible EW count for the move down from the 1370.58 level and if correct, there is every possibility that it could have been the end of Minuette wave 2. The other thing that makes it a possibility is the fact that the move down so far has been 38.32% of the rally leg which is damn close to a 38.2% Fibonacci level. That's the positive side of the argument.

As for the negative side of the argument my concern is that the move up from that label 2 looks like a 3 rather than a 5 wave move. Had there been a completion to Minuette wave 2 I would have expected an impulsive move up from there.





The other issue is that whilst the LOI on the 60 minute intraday chart has turned up, the LOI on the 90 minute chart still has to do that hence there could be a bit more downward movement to go. What is promising though is the obvious support at this level and the fact that the LOI on the daily chart (whilst it has started to turn down) is still on a buy. For me, we still need a bit more information before things get confirmed.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 04:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO at the COB

Looking at the pattern below it certainly looks like a leading diagonal to me. We had an impulse wave for waves 1 and 3 and an ending diagonal for wave 5.




A leading diagonal has the following pattern. As you can see above we've met all of the rules.



Now the thing about a leading diagonal is that it usually follows a pretty steep retracement in the market. The reason that this produces a leading diagonal from the bottom of the retracement is because investors are still wary of the market and hence create a half committed impulsive pattern.

Quite often, a leading diagonal can lead to a wave 2 which takes back much of the wave 1 rally. Again this is because investors are still wary of the market at the time.

So, if we have a significant down day tomorrow that does not take out the previous low then you know why. If that is the case then it would be a great time to re-enter the market once all of the momentum and price indicators start moving up.

If on the other hand you wanted a definite confirmation that the market retracement is over, then you would need to wait until the 4788.6 level was taken out. If this level is taken out then it invalidates an impulse move down from the 4976.4 top.

Needless to say the above comments are purely my view and don't necessarily have to be correct.


PS:

If on the other hand the low does get taken out then it would mean that the above pattern was not a leading diagonal but rather a wave 4 contracting wedge pattern which would mean that wave 5 wave in the process of forming. Mind you if we did get a low tomorrow instead of today then it would mean that the Conti cycle date of the 5th May was spot on instead of one day out.

(Message edited by rdumas on May 05, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 05:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Rudy

Interesting thought on XJO.

The Double Zigzag correction looks to me to have another 5th wave leg south before it completes the Y leg.

The Leading Diagonal may in fact be a wave iv Zigzag with a Ending Diagonal finish as you suggest.

If SPX continues south over the next few days, the correction on XJO may turn into a Triple Zigzag if XJO takes a liking to Polly's further correction. Delta doesn't give this much probability unless it completes in 3 days trading or so....but there might be time for a XX Z finish?








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rdumas
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Friday, May 06, 2011 - 08:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I still think that the pattern that I labelled yesterday looks more like a leading diagonal than what you suggest. None the less the proof of the pudding will be whether yesterday's low gets taken out today. It will be interesting to see if the move down today is corrective or impulsive. If it is corrective then be prepared for a change in direction in trend.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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rdumas
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Friday, May 06, 2011 - 10:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Well, we broke yesterday's low so we are in a wave 5 down on the XJO. All things going well, we may get out Conti cycle low day spot on!! All we need is the low to be put in place today.......otherwise we are going to run late.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Hello Rudy,
Not had much time to look at markets the last
few weeks. I appreciate all your comments and
analysis on this thread... I think your conti analysis
is bang on this time...
Well done

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thanks Andrew. The proof of the pudding will be if we start moving up later in the day and continue on Monday. The money on the sidelines is getting a bit impatient.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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hi Guys

It does look like the Double Zigzag completed on XJO @ 4713 today.

I am cautious that a Triple Zigzag might form on XJO early next week based on a weakening US market. Perhaps another test of the double bottom?

Prices on XJO have bounced off the 50% fibo & the LBB over the past two days. The double bottom 4713/4716 looks solid for now.

Lots of the fast & early indicators have triggered today on XJO including W%7, fast STOs & MACDs. W%14 @ 81% just about to cross…

SPX, DOW & Nasdaq has not provided any evidence that they are ready to turn. US Small Caps $IUX looks a little closer to making an 'about turn' after bouncing off the 76% fibo.


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billt
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hey Rudy,


Big week for Silver - I favor the EW count that iv-3 is completing.

Any thoughts?





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billt
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Three ideas on the SPX count. I assume Andrew/Rudy that perhaps the White Count fits the cycle analysis, and the other counts do not match your timing window:





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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I also saw that chart on the SafeHaven site and tend to agree with his comments. I have a Market Wrap to write so can't spend much time no the subject at the moment but here is a chart that I just cobbled together on a long term chart that verifies that thinking.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, May 07, 2011 - 12:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

As outlined in my Weekend Market Wrap I still favour the following EW count for the SPX. Whilst ever the Minuette wave 2 doesn't breach the Minute wave 2 low of 1294.7, the count will remain valid.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Potential Contra Indicators to my EW Count for SPX


One of the doubts that I have in the back of my mind is the USD. If it has found a bottom and starts to rally upwards the obvious result would be a falling equities market.

The following 60 minute chart shows one possible EW count and the daily chart shows how strong the move has been so far.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, May 07, 2011 - 03:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Thanks for the Wrap

There is much to be concerned about in the coming weeks, as many indices are showing signs that their top is already in.

Has Andrew's June date altered at all? As we are getting close, I would have thought that an Ending Diagonal wave 4 & 5 finish still might be an EW outcome? Without the help of the Banks & Commodities an ED finish may still be on the cards. If we have only completed a 1/2, 1/2 up of wave 5 I am beginning to think we may not have time to complete this count by Andrew's end date?

The rallying $USD is a cause for concern - the Euro has just broken a 6 month trendline to the downside.

$CRX, $WTIC, and $BKX are all looking like they have had enough...

$CRX Commodity Index
- topped out in Feb 11
- broken 2 year trend line
- 1/2, 1/2 down?

$WTIC Oil Index
- broken trend line
- 20% correction in a week

$BKX Bank Index
- topped out in Feb 11
- 1/2, 1/2 down?


Thanks for your thoughts on Silver, which confirmed my consideration that this is a wave 4 pullback...we have completed an abc correction to date but we may have more of 4 to complete...sold out on my short silver at the LBB/Fibo/Support/Trendline area with a +90% gain in a week! I'll continue to play both sides of the silver trade, as there is a 100% gain to be had in AGQ just to take out the wave iii top, let alone the wave v final flourish.






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gdd3
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Interesting count on SILVER, guys....seems to supported by some Fibo relationships as follows.

First Chart shows that the two Fibo range extensions(1.618% from top of range and 2.382% from wave2 correction low) came with a matter of cents at the recent high($49.786). However, if this EWC is "on the ball" then obviously we have some further upside as we only have wave3 of wave3 completed and wave4 may still be in its early stages.


Silver Monthly Standard Chart



The second chart, a Monthly Log chart simply highlights, more clearly, the 1.618 range extension level of wave1 on top of the high of the same wave.


Silver Monthly Log Chart




The third chart is a 'close-up' from the Nov.08 swing low(wave2) that highlights from bothe an EW and Fibo retracement perspective that last week's swift fall is 'within the ball-park' of possible support levels.


Silver "Close-Up" monthly



Thats all for now as my wife has reminded me "that I'm supposed to be on "holidays" ....but you guys would understand, right!


Cheers
Dolphin}


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gdd3
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Saturday, May 07, 2011 - 04:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry Billt....

We have "over-lapped" here with our last two posts(didn't get to read yours until after I had posted mine). I guess, as we have a different reference point for our wave2 it may cause some "sceptics" to surface but the important thing is that we three see the current move down as a "corrective 4th wave" and ultimately there will be higher prices in the coming months or into next year.

Dolphin


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billt
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hey Dolphin

Tell your 'better half' that you are on holidays,.... just looking at some jewelry for her that might double in value in a short space of time!


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billt
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To complete the Jewelry story with the italian overlays (including a piece of e'dubya), it was interesting to see that AGQ bounced down the fibs and sits leaning against the 76.4%.

The second chart is an extract from Trader Dan, with an EW count on the 8 hour chart. The abc move may have completed, but there is a possibility that the v of c wave has yet to complete.

W%14 triggers hooking back up at the 95% level, so watching this closely for a buy-in. A ride from 180 to 380 and onwards looks like some fun...













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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Andrew said that he has been rather busy of late on non market related activities but still anticipates a high in June as previously indicated.

Most Elliott Wavers have turned bearish at this point including PUGsy who believes that the top for the SPX is already in.

Even Tony Caldaro is starting to come up with alternate counts but still is focussed on a bull market scenario. I continue to believe in my previously posted EW count.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Sunday, May 08, 2011 - 09:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill....


Just to add to your AQG "alert" I thought I'd take a look for supporting 'evidence' of a possible buy set-up to may be increase your 'enthusiasm'.

One difference is the 'reference' point low; I have taken my chart back to the Aug.20 swing low(equivalent to wave ii of wave3 on our Physical Silver chart). That reference start point shows that Thu./Fri action was almost right at the 61.8% retracement, and right on my preferred 150EMA, level plus just above a strong chart support (both horizontal and uptrend)levels at/near $162 / $158 (that also represents Gann's 66.7% retracement level). So from this perspective alone you could believe that some T/A buying(or shorters taking profit) interest may prevail, especially if you have additional "oversold" T/A support, and better still "buy" signals to support any enthusiasm.

Well, as you have rightfully pointed out, Bill, the Williams%R14 is way down in the low -90%'s and turning up(as is the faster Williams%R3). With such swift price action in such a short time(one week) and coming down as far as the 150EMA(30wklyEMA) it now brings the Wkly TAZ set-ups W%R's signals into play(alert) as they also are down near desired levels (-80%). However, there is a sign of caution in these in that maybe any short-term bounce action will be stifled and we can not rule out another lower low(to the $162/$158) BUT for a more comfortable buy signal may be?

I'm a little disturbed but interested in the volume chart since abt mid April to now...generally rising steadily from mid April to the high understandable but ever increasing from May 2nd to last Thu., in what is perceived as corrective in the 'bigger Silver' picture, is a bit of a worry! One +ve I see in Thu./Fri. volume picture is that I see "exhaustion" sell-off on Thu. followed by "buy accumulation" on Fri....what do you think?

Going back to the lofty heights of the $380's soon will be almost impossible I would think because of this 'strange' volume activity but also I note the 'gap' between $231 - $217 which will probably prove a major barrier to break initially.






Cheers

Dolphin

P.S....Another little difference in AQG's chart, from "trader Dan's" EWC perspective, is that his wave b high on SILVER actually was a higher high on AQG...."irregular correction????"hummm!!!

(Message edited by gdd3 on May 08, 2011)


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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 08:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Russell 2000

One of the patterns that has me a little concerned is that of the Russell 2000. I just can't find a positive spin to put on it from an EW perspective. The negative count seems to blast out to me at present and if true would put Andrew's June date in some jeopardy.

The additional issue is that of the USD looking very much like it's put in a pretty solid low from which it could very well start rallying from.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 09:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



IPL EW Count


I came upon IPL on the weekend and noticed a pretty obvious pattern developing. It will be interesting to see if it plays out as expected. If correct, we should see a good move up from here.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 10:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



More on IPL


Having a closer look today there is still the possibility that there could be one more wave down to go.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Hi Rudy,

Nice call! My weekly here also has some +ves from last week's action:- Holding the horizontal, 52wkEMA(~$3.80/$3.85) and just above the L/T uptrend line supports on a close basis; last wk's 'bottoming' candle on high vols; and my favoured W%R3 "hook" low from desired levels(plus W%R14). I guess one concern is that my Wkly Set-up M/A's(5SMA/21EMA have now crossed -ve and price action is still below the 30EMA{daily 150EMA}); I'm thinking I'd like to see IPL get above the $4.00/$4.05 barrier for follow through buying interest is to seen.

Daily chart also suggested a bounce was imminent with support levels shown to hold and the W%R14 providing a couple of "Rudymier" set-ups. However, it also highlights the $4.00/$4.05 barrier just ahead(trendline resistances and 150EMA).


Weekly...



Daily...



Worth following!

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Thanks Dolphin,

As I see it if the price action can break the $4.01 level then it will invalidate that last EW count and confirm my earlier count. I think that it's worth waiting for the confirmation.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

Here is another one that looked promising for a short term trade. It is the reason I put this one up for the tipping competition this week.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Hi Rudy,

Yep, had a look at GXY earlier after seeing your pick. The short-term EWC's possibilities not too dissimilar to IPL in that its looking like an ABC is playing out. However, I guess I wouldn't be surprised to find that your B was completed} at your b and since then we are playing out a wave 12345 for waveC now...just doing the minor wave iv over the past few days.

Regardless, also worthy of watching as I'm sure the ODB bunch will be.

}}




Cheers
Dolphin

 
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