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Archive through May 11, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Non Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through May 11, 2011

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billt
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Friday, April 29, 2011 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...and a closer look

Times Up for $VIX??






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rdumas
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Friday, April 29, 2011 - 04:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Conti Cycles

Yesterday I posted a Conti Cycle chart for the XJO on the Non Elliott Wave Watching thread which contained an error. I had the 33 trading day low noted as coming on the 3rd May. In fact that should be the 6th May. Naturally enough with the +/- 3 day tolerance band that could still be the 3rd May.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Saturday, April 30, 2011 - 01:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:


billt wrote on Friday, April 29, 2011 - 03:56 pm:

Looking similar to August '08 to me?




Yes, agreed on your observation.

There's a big voice in my head saying "Geithner and Bernanke have painted the VIX with an extraordinary low value in order to draw foreign capital in to the US"

They have accomplished this by forcing the VIX calculation down faster than they have dropped the value of the $US.

When foreign capital stops buying in to the debt inflation, that is when the balloon will burst.

Conceivably this could go on for years, or until something very harsh brings the charade to an end.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Saturday, April 30, 2011 - 05:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



An easy one for the weekend....



Q. Which index performed better in $USD terms since March 09, Aussie or $SPX....? (don't look...make your guess and scroll down...)











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rdumas
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Sunday, May 01, 2011 - 10:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



RUSSELL 2000

I don't normally look at this index but as it is one of the US index leaders I thought that it was worth a squizz.

What we can see is that the current rally range is now 98.6% of the previous bull market rally range. What is even more incredible is that it has achieved it in around 44.8% of the time of the previous rally.


The question is.............will it turn at the 100% range which is obviously very close by???


The current rally leg has been a 3 wave move so far. At this point in time the 3rd leg is 69.2% of the range of the 1st leg.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Sunday, May 01, 2011 - 12:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Thanks for the heads up.

It's at these zone breaks that the best money is made. I'm watching TWM & UWM on the break.

I note a couple of other coincidences:

The second leg in the current rally is 61.8% of the first leg.

And on a break out, the approximate target is up about 100 points.

And on a break down, the approximate target is down about 100 points.

I would prefer a correction at this point, but sadly I think the bernanke will win out again, It looks to me to have already broken resistance slightly.



(Message edited by ehmu on May 01, 2011)


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These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Sunday, May 01, 2011 - 12:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

I think that you will find that the following ranges relate to the current rally leg.

Wave 1 went from 342.57 to 745.95 = 403.38
Wave 3 went from 588.58 to (top so far) 866.9 = 278.32

Hence wave 3 is (278.32/403.38)x 100 = 68.997% of the range of wave 1 and not 61.8% as you suggested in the above post.

I suspect that the next target level will be the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 896.76.

What is not clear from an EW perspective is whether the larger 3 wave pattern is one of the two scenarios labelled in the following chart or some other scenario. The white labelling is a Running Flat pattern which will eventually form wave 4.

The red labelling assumes that wave 4 is already complete and we are forming wave 5. If this was the case then we would be in for a lot more upside to the market in the coming months. The "sell in May" advice is certainly not consistent with the second scenario and it would be for this reason that I would suggest that the first scenario is more likely.

To me, the Russell 2000 pattern is even more evidence that the likelihood of the March 2009 lows being taken out is quite remote because the most likely pattern that is playing out in the US indices is a Flat pattern.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, May 01, 2011 - 03:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GOLD - Long and Medium Term

Looking at the medium (weekly) and long term (monthly) charts for the POG we appear to have reached a pretty important level at this stage.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 07:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Yes, your arithmetic is correct according to my calculations.

I was taking 838 as the top of wave 3. [838-588.58=249.48] and (249.48/403.38)* 100 = .618325

According to your reconning, 838 is incorrect, and I accept your view.

I defer to your Elliot Wave Analysis that your scenario 1 may have a higher probability than some other scenario (whatever scenario 1 is), even though this is the non-elliot wave string.

"What is not clear from an EW perspective is whether the larger 3 wave pattern is one of the two scenarios labelled in the following chart or some other scenario. The white labelling is a Running Flat pattern which will eventually form wave 4."


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 08:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Not sure where your figure of 838 would have come from.

The 866.90 that I used for the current top isn't "my view" but derived from the IC charting software package and verified in the following Yahoo snapshot of the intraday ranges for the last trading session.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 10:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

838 was the high on Feb 18, the peak before the breakout Mar30.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 10:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Thanks for the explanation. The calculations that I carried out were for those waves shown in my post 4807 and replicated in your post 403. Hence the leg that you marked as .618A I believe should have actually been .68997A as per my calculations. Anyway, I hope that we're on the same page now.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 10:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

I don't know if you've been following the POG recently but prior to market open in Australia it spiked to $1576.61 but it suddenly fell to $1542.21 before settling at around the current level at $1552.13. Now that's volatility for you.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



USD Index

Wow, the USD Index is sure one sick puppy. The previous low came at the 50% Fibonacci extension of the first decline leg. Will the next low bounce off the 23.6% Fibonacci extension of the first 3 wave move down at 72.55 which is only 0.68% below the previous trading day's close price ???





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 11:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



$IUX


...but if c = a





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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 11:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

That's a good thought. I've taken the range of the third wave and overlayed it on the first wave. As you can see, in terms of time, it would possibly take another 4 months to achieve that wave equality situation. That is way over the time that Andrew and I expect a top to be put in place for the market.





I'm not saying that it's unlikely, it just doesn't stack up with our expectations.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 12:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO


We can see from the intraday chart below that the XJO is playing around the 38.2% Fibonacci level and has completed a 5 wave move down from the last peak.

The LOI is still on a strong sell signal and not showing any signs of slowing down. I suspect that it will head down towards the 50% Fibonacci level at 4726.9 which would also be close to the rising Mars line. Perhaps it can hitch a ride on that back of a Martian as there is a bit of support at that level.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 01:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Monday, May 02, 2011 - 10:28 am:

we're on the same page now




Your mind reading skills are down a quart.

Here's the thing I have about the chart and 838. For me the 61.8 is a key resistance level. In a healthy up trend it would get tested, pull back, break through, back test, then head for 100.

In the attached chart, I marked the failure on the back test. This looks unstable to me for the bulls. I do have a tonne of faith in the US Fed and Treasury, they have pulled it off so far. Pumped the US markets, whilst devaluing everyones $US.

They are such BULLIES, and I don't mean bulls heh, heh.

I'd be going long if I could get past the smell.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 02:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO


It does seem Rudy that XJO has something more to give up.

Tightening up on the Williams gave great signals on the W%7 for the previous 19 day rally, and the more recent 3 day B wave rally....





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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 02:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



That's the way I'm seeing it too Bill. I suspect that it will go down to the Marshun before there's any chance of it going up.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 02:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Update

At 2.40pm the MBB on the 20 minute chart continues to be a strong overhead resistance for the XJO.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 03:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

The US Small Caps ($IUX) have been very predicable!

I have removed any other source of intervention, and simply using the W%14 with an eye for double/triple tops or bottoms has produced a 190% rolled up return in 6 weeks on your favorite TNA & TZA play.

I know exactly what you mean, but I have got past the 'smell' long ago....






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ehmu
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Tuesday, May 03, 2011 - 01:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Monday, May 02, 2011 - 03:09 pm:

favorite TNA & TZA play




Bill, thanks for your cool long distance view of TNA/TZA.

It encouraged me to take another look at why I'm avoiding them. Turns out, it isn't the stench, although I don't enjoy foul odors. The intraday volatility is what has been keeping me out of these. I would get shaken out because of my lack of discipline on the long term chart signals (feels like trading on the daily charts is outside my risk tolerance).

Interesting when I looked at the 60minute charts, I recon that I could trade these using the 60min intraday charts and do just fine. Even though the gaps that I marked would have been demoralizing when they occurred.

Attached, my set-up using W%R (I use a cross of W%R over ROC---I adjust the ROC to bind the -20,-80 W%R). Note the TZA somehow has more integrity than TNA, ie respecting the 233ema as a boundary. The W%R signals are also supported by price crossover of the 13ma.






_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Tuesday, May 03, 2011 - 01:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Monday, May 02, 2011 - 03:09 pm:

favorite TNA & TZA play




This is too sharp to resist a second post.

As we speak, these two Rhinos are threatening to cross over.

Also attaching 4hr idiot on TZA.








_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Tuesday, May 03, 2011 - 08:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What's in store for the XJO today?

The lead from Wall Street has the ASX200 futures contract down 21 points for the open today. On the NYSE the ADRs had BHP down 1.05%, RIO down 1.2% and WBC down 1.27% so we certainly appear to be headed for a negative open this morning.

Looking at the 99 minute intraday chart we can see that the index staged a rally late in the day that stopped the downward momentum of the LOI. We still don't have a buy on the LOI at this stage.




On the 60 minute intraday chart we can see that the LOI has given a buy signal however the price action hasn't made it to the MBB at this stage.





On the 15 minute intraday chart I have shown the anticipated move down based on the ASX200 futures contract. We can see that it takes us down to around the 4800~4804 target zone (note the MBB is at 4797) which after the 4810 level, is the next obvious level of support based on past price action. We also have further support levels at 4790, 4780 and 4770.

Should those levels fail to hold then we are in the wave 3 of C that I discussed in the EWWW thread yesterday afternoon.

The bulls today MUST draw a line in the sand at the MBB level if the rally is to continue. A drop below the 4770 level would be an indication that the bulls have failed and the bears have taken over. At this point in time (based on the higher level time frames) the bulls have the upper hand but the battle lines are well and truly drawn.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, May 03, 2011 - 01:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There is a bearish "head-and-shoulders" formation developing here just as we head into the month of May - and with the daily stochastics turning negative. Notice the RSI weakness, as well. Momentum is weakening rapidly. With the killing of Osama bin Laden, a retaliatory response could be invoked. And yet, institutions are selling aggressively now. This is a huge warning cry that we are entering into the first stage of a contraction . . . as we saw in 2008.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Wednesday, May 04, 2011 - 08:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What's in store for the XJO today?


Yesterday the 4770 level was momentarily breached but the index closed above it at 4785. The lead from Wall Street currently has the ASX200 futures sitting down 29 points. The ADRs on the NYSE has BHP down 2.04%, RIO down 3.12% and WBC down 0.84% so we can expect the XJO to have a significant drop on the open. A drop of the anticipated 29 points would take the index down to the 4756 level.

The following chart gives some potential Fibonacci target levels for the XJO.

I am still anticipating a bottom for this cycle to occur on the 9th May +/- 3 trading days based on the Conti cycles.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, May 04, 2011 - 10:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Wave Equality Target


Here's a wave equality target suggested by Randall via pm. It happens to coincide with the rising Marshun line which is useful.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, May 04, 2011 - 11:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hot Tamales

I got shaken out of my TZA position today, a tidy $2 on a two day hold ~7%.

So what is the matter with that, is that what would have been the wisest choice would have been the hottest (most hyperbolic trade in the markets------silver)

So on one chart, I showed TZA vs ZSL. Duhhhh! Well never guess what I'm doing tomorrow.

I also showed two versions of the idiot for ZSL, not much different to look at, and the breakout is still pretty fresh.












_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Wednesday, May 04, 2011 - 12:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

I love the smell of a TZA gain in the morning! Well done Ed, but I feel there maybe a little more to go yet.

I posted earlier over on my US ETF thread the same idea.

I had a piece of ZSL at the bottom and I'm still holding it until the W%7/14 kicks in, then back into AGQ....Silver could bounce north at any moment, so don't be tricked by those crazy logarithms doing their thing....!

I'm still holding the bear TZA, SOXS & ERY....exiting these on the W%14 signal, then jumping back into TNA, SOXL, & ERX.


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ehmu
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 12:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Yes, agreed that TZA has more to go. Gap res around thirty six minimum. I got bounced for being too tight fisted.

I used 3 time ATR as a trailing stop of .75 (15min), and debated adjusting it before I went out yesterday afternoon to .81 cents but didn't. .85 would have kept me in, .81 wouldn't have.

3ATR is roughly 3std deviations.

(Message edited by ehmu on May 05, 2011)


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These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 01:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Update

We are starting to see some early signs that the bottom may have been put in on the XJO. The price action is just about to breach the descending trend line and there is definite positive divergence between the LOI and price action in this time frame.

The truly definitive point will come if the index can get above the 4788.6 level because a downward moving impulse wave will have been invalidated.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 02:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Short Term View of the XJO

Whereas it does look as if a break out is occurring I am starting to question whether it is just a head fake.


Looking at the 2 minute intraday chart if we get to 4756 then we would have a wave equality scenario in play which is more indicative of a Zigzag rather than an impulse move. In an impulse move we would like to see the third wave be around 161.8% of the range of the first wave, not 100% of the range of the first wave.

The other important issue is the negative divergence that is currently taking place between the price action and LOI.

As I said in the earlier post, the confirmation that the rally has really started is if we take out the 4788.6 level.




(Message edited by rdumas on May 05, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Friday, May 06, 2011 - 12:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Thursday, May 05, 2011 - 01:57 pm:

definite positive divergence between the LOI and price action in this time frame.




Could it be hidden bearish divergence ?




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rdumas
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Friday, May 06, 2011 - 08:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

I'm unfamiliar with that particular way of reading divergence. I think I'll stick to what I know.

By the way I hope you and Bill made a fortune from your Silver shorting stocks. It sure has had a plummet. It's within 98 cents of the 38.2% Fib level now. It will be interesting to see where it settles. I pity anyone that was long in Silver when the rug was pulled out.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, May 06, 2011 - 02:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO as at 1318 hours

The 99 minute intraday chart has a rising LOI and a solid base at current levels. The daily though still has its LOI in a SELL. Until that changes, the bottom has not be confirmed.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, May 06, 2011 - 04:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As Commodities has provided much of the support to this two year rally, it is interesting to note that $CRX has broken the trend line, after a triangular pattern finish....lower highs/lower lows now in play.

With Oil & $USD reversing hard overnight, a note of caution.






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ehmu
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Friday, May 06, 2011 - 11:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

I'm counting on an intermediate crest may11-12, so we're running out of time for a reversal.

I'm out of the shorts, waiting for a buy very short term on the bulls, or a continuation down.

H


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rdumas
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Saturday, May 07, 2011 - 04:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX and Fib Levels

This index has played the Fibonacci levels of the great plunge so well that you have ask whether if the rally can extend to the next Fibonacci level. The next level is the 88.6% Fibonacci level which is located at 1472. I suspect that it would be a real stretch to achieve that level.

I have drawn in a wave equality scenario in yellow for the two rally legs. I doubt that it will eventuate but it was interesting to see that if it occurred it would almost recover the total plunge between 2007 and 2009.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 08:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



USD Breakout?

In the Elliott Wave Watching thread I expressed my concern about the pattern forming in the Russell 2000 and the potential bottoming of the USD. The chart below shows what I meant by the comment about the USD.

Now it has broken out of one particular channel but the big test will be if it can break out of the next channel up. That would be a real turning point for the equities market in my view.










I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 10:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

I agree that it is not quite there as yet, the usd.

The dt break according to EHMU imo by three measures (this is the level that a new ut will begin {if now}):

-"abbreviated dt break" when one complete week candle paints above fridays close $74.76

-close above buyer/seller control levels established (blue line) nov09,nov10, mar11--close above $75.60 {note the current price bounced off of exactly the support level established by the buyer/seller control line established in Mar-Jul08 [red line]}


-close above 13ema (currently may8 13ema) $75.96

----so to be conservative on the weekly charts, a close above $76




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ehmu
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



On the daily, which is obviously more aggressive, the dt has been broken.


The W%R is breaking out.



And the idiot has crossed, as well as the macd.




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These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 10:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Yes I have to admit that it is a bit of an each way bet at this stage. This week should definitely tell the story.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 02:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Point of recognition for XJO approaching

There is at least a short term point of recognition approaching for the XJO as can be seen from the chart below.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 02:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Further to your earlier post on Hidden Divergences. I found this article on the subject.

http://www.getfreeebooks.com/wp-content/uploads/Hidden_Divergence.pdf


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 04:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO bludgeoned by MBB

After an enthusiastic beginning, the MBB took over and acted as a strong overhead resistance on a trip down south.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 11:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Monday, May 09, 2011 - 02:56 pm:

I found this article on the subject.




T Y V M


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These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011 - 01:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Polly has a Diamond....





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ehmu
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Wednesday, May 11, 2011 - 12:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



liz taylor style diamond








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rdumas
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Wednesday, May 11, 2011 - 08:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Bill,

Doesn't the $RUT look a lot more positive now than it did a day or so ago? looks like it wants to make that last leg up some of us have been sprouting about for some time now. The only question is ............... can it possibly last into early to mid June???





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy
US Stocks 15-minute delayed

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