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Archive through June 23, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Non Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through June 23, 2011

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ehmu
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Wednesday, May 11, 2011 - 09:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"can it possibly last into early to mid June??? "



IMO, I'm seeing two more crests before the June dt.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Wednesday, May 11, 2011 - 03:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Up But Struggling

Whilst it roared up this morning, it is having real troubles getting through the 4777 level at the time of writing this post. If she can get through that there could be another big move. If not then it will need to go down and build up a head of steam for another onslaught.











I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, May 11, 2011 - 04:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO at the close

Well, the close overcame that previous hurdle. Next hurdle is a close above 4793.6.

We've got a buy on the LOI but an UBB at 4789.6.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, May 18, 2011 - 12:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Seasonal cycles


http://club.ino.com/lessons/cyc.htm


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Friday, May 20, 2011 - 04:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO canary is clucking, looks like a down sloping H&S to me, and not long to wait to find out.

I marked the target area where a breakdown of this pattern would lead.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ken
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Friday, May 20, 2011 - 10:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ehmu,

I think the baseline you used is a bit steep to indicate a head and shoulders pattern. My view is that short term movement from here is upwards again due to the breakout from the descending wedge on the chart below.



Regards, Ken


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ehmu
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Friday, May 20, 2011 - 12:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Friday, May 20, 2011 - 04:30 am:

XJO canary is clucking




The chart for EWA that I posted is a US etf, that I favor as a creame de la creame indicator for Australian equities.

http://us.ishares.com/content/stream.jsp?url=/content/en_us/repository/resource/fact_sheet/ewa.pdf&mimeType=application/pdf

The attached chart of XJO, I plotted the red dt where todays price seems to be up against resistance, and not breaking out at this time.

You may be right of course that it will go up, but I don't share that view until it breaks the dt.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ken
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Friday, May 20, 2011 - 12:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ehmu,

We start our downtrend lines at different points and get different results. I see the descending wedge as the third wave of the decline, hance as an ending diagonal which implies a bottom. Time will tell.


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starboard_tack
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Sunday, May 22, 2011 - 08:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy, Bill etc.

Following on from the discussion on the Elliott Wave thread, here is a non-Elliott chart to support the bearish stance. The following Long Wave Dynamic chart shows that the level 1 points are very important for the SPX. It has recently bounced off the 85.4% level. It would seem unlikely to reach the next level up.

SPX Long Wave


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

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ehmu
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Monday, May 23, 2011 - 12:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The US markets are all bearish.

I'm not going to overkill with charts, but I will mention these indications are consistent with Russel 2000, NYSE, SP500, and XII (institutional index.)

They are all showing:

falling tops and falling bottoms on the daily charts.
broken the long term weekly ut and tested it as res.
broken the 13ema daily ma, and tested as res.
broken the 34ema, which is roughly equivalent to 50d ma
broken the ROC with the 18W%R and confirmed the break.
the daily idiot has crossed negative.
the daily short macd has crossed negative.
the weekly idiot has crossed negative.
the weekly short macd has crossed negative.
the 5 cci daily is negative.
the 8cci daily is negative.

I see these as sell signals, even if they were only on the daily chart. I am short now 15% and 85% cash.


I like so many others see a peak coming between May27 and June 3. However I qualify, or define it in my own mind as a peak and not necessarily a new high. I favor the lower high scenario, which would be a short accumulation opportunity. I favor this because there are currently falling tops and bottoms, and there are only about 7 trading days remaining until June3.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Monday, May 23, 2011 - 08:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A possible bounce coming in the XJO

Note that in spite of the fact that the price action is not near the LBB, the LOI has had a cross over buy signal generated on the 30 minute intraday chart.



The 99 minute intraday chart shows how the decline has occurred within a descending channel however there is some support at the blue line which could facilitate the proposed bounce.





How long the bounce would last (if it eventuated) is unclear as all of the higher level time frames have a sell signal on their LOI's.

There is a Conti cycle low suggested on the 25th May which also happens to coincide with the 3rd quarter Lunar phase date. Remember that the 3rd quarter to New Moon phase is "on average" positive.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011 - 02:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

or should I say "don diago"

Here is an excerpt from an analyst that I follow (dennis slothower). His view of the dollar and its power over other equities makes sense to me. Especially what to expect during a rise in the dollar to induce a cooling of commodities and other speculative instruments.


YYYYUUUUMMMMMY




While the US dollar can certainly back and fill here, the more evidence arises to point toward a recession on the horizon, the more support we will see for the US dollar, even on the monthly charts.

Notice, what happened to the dollar in 2008, when the economy fell into recession. It spiked to the top of the monthly Bollinger Band line and if the economy puts on the brakes, you can expect a similar response out of the dollar over the next few quarters.

The potential for a recurring recession is what makes gold and silver vulnerable going into the end of the year.








http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itEh_-5Yedw





_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011 - 07:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



..ahhh..... how good was Zorro!


If history repeats itself Slothower's ideas may hold true. The niggle in the back of my mind is $14 trillion of US debt + $3 trillion of Fed greenbacks that have flooded the market since 2008.

Despite all that, what other currency would you pick to strengthen - Euro! or even the Yen! Unlikely.

Perhaps $USD to strengthen, but I feel Gold & Silver may go north too based on the debasement of the $USD and the general 'fear factor'...

Converting my $AUD to $USD and buying TZA seems a far easier idea!


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ehmu
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011 - 08:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ye..........Z

gain on T......Z.......A


plus gain on the FOREX


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011 - 05:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



shhhh, don't tell everyone!

We may have enough to buy 'Phantom' and ride away into the sunset:

Esteban: Is your blade as sharp as your tongue?
Zorro: Is yours as dull as your wit?


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ehmu
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011 - 06:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



McClellan has broken the support of larger of two pennants today, next move likely to test that breakdown prior to continuing down.

Institutional investor index XII broke down through 89ema (587.6) today, will likely test that as its new resistance before continuing down.

EWA etf for Australian share markets broke down through 89ema (26.4) today, will likely test that as its new resistance before continuing down.








_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Friday, May 27, 2011 - 10:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Might the Bollies give us a clue to a turning point this week?





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ehmu
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Sunday, May 29, 2011 - 04:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What is the carry trade telling us ?

I am not able to connect the dots when considering FOREX relationships, and the wizardry of double and triple conversions in order to gain advantage on trades, but I do know that when a carry trade unwinds that it has far reaching influence on the equity markets.

Here is an article that caught my eye, involving the Australian/Japanese carry trade. They plotted against the sp-500, I plotted one against XJO (EWA) just for the fun of it.

the aud/jpy is in a pennant pattern that could break either way, but is riding just above support (which is a good sign for the bulls). If it breaks down, it will be a violent move if you look at the price action back in march was quite aggressive.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/272109-what-the-carry-trade-unwind-is-telling-us?source=email_watchlist






_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Sunday, May 29, 2011 - 05:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Another view of the AUD/JPY, using the Aroon and RSI.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAD:$XJY&p=W&b=2&g=1&id=p51230102466

Note the significant price rise when the aroon crossed positive from the 30 level (very powerful move), on the left of the chart while the W%R was heading in a positive direction and the price was crossing the 21ema.

Well check out the bearish writing on the wall, with a negative crossing from the 30 level on the aroon with the W%R heading negatively, and price flirting with a breakdown of the 21ema.






_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Monday, May 30, 2011 - 08:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Can China Give Us A Clue?

I suspect that if our fortunes in Australia are dependent to a large degree on China's fortunes then it may pay to keep an eye on their stock market for clues. Looking at the chart below their market appears to be in free fall at the moment. I have drawn a wave equality target to give us some sort of a gauge on the risk in their market.

I would suggest that if their market can bottom out somewhere within that range then its not too bad. A move beyond that range however would not be a good sign for their market and would impact on ours significantly. At present this current decline is dropping at a faster rate than the first decline which is not a good sign. Was it one of their philosophers who said "May we live in interesting times?"





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Monday, May 30, 2011 - 12:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Short-term views presented here(Rudy and co.) seem spot-on as the XJO short-term picture is looking increasingly good for higher prices at least for the early part of the week. This 10min intraday chart highlights(another) H&S bottom pattern that broke its neckline on open today, and supported by the apparent 5wave structure unfolding since Friday's low, all seemingly indicating that the XJO is at least going to test the 61.8%/66.7% retracement levels(4695 - 4708) or even attempt to fill that gap(4732 remember)....I guess as long as the series of supports betx 4660-4645 below on a close basis.




Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 12:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Idiot Finally Gives Buy on XJO

It's taken a while but we finally got a buy on the Idiot. Couple this with the Conti low given on the 25th May I believe that we can feel confident that the long awaited counter trend started at that low.

The next Conti cycle high is currently set for the 6th~9th June depending on which cycle we use as the base.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 01:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Another one of Rudy's prefered oscillators, the LOSC, has also given a BUY signal albeit a bit "unconvincing" for an indicator that is usually reliable for "cleaner" cross-overs and buy/sell signals.

The 90min intraday chart also appears to confirm that the XJO may struggle a bit near present levels B4 any further advance over the coming days....

Just my take at present!


Daily....


...and 90min.



Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 01:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

You are spot on. I use the LOI as my preliminary buy/sell signal as it comes in earlier than the Idiot. I have posted the latest XJO Conti chart in the Cycles thread.

The charts you posted show why we have been given a buy but the BBs and other technicals don't give us a real feel for how long this run can go. That is why I posted the Conti chart because it does tend to give us an indication of how long the run could go for.

I know that I should really post the following chart in the Astrology thread but I don't want to spread a single thought process across 3 different threads so I will post it here.

The vertical dashed lines show yesterday's and todays price action time slots. You will note that the descending green line (Sun Earth planetary line at the 4710 level) is an over head resistance in today's time slot. It is this planetary line that is causing the momentary (I hope) resistance to further upward movement at this time. If it can get through this then we're on our way again.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 01:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...the 30min intraday EWC? seems to also suggest we are nearing an end of the first "impulse" wave up.

At least it is good that it is an impulse wave after Rudy's XX..Y count for the Conti and 4th Wave low of the next higher degree!

}


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gdd3
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 01:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy...for the Planetary update...only adds to confirm the short-term resistance at/near present levels.

I also 'apologise' to other readers for posting my last EWC Intraday count on this thread BUT like Rudy didn't want to "spread" the current thought over to another thread.

dolphin


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rdumas
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 04:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

As we started this discussion on this thread I'll stay here even though there are numerous themes being discussed within this discussion.

I've got a slightly different take on the EW count. I believe that we are extending the wave 3 in the rally upwards.






As in the previous post the two vertical dashed white lines to the right of the current price action shown on the planetary chart represent the time slots for tomorrow and Thursday.

All things going well I would expect the price action to complete subwave 2 and break through the descending SunEarth line. If this view is correct then the next move up would be a larger move over the next two days to the ascending purple Mercury line which tomorrow will be around the 4760 level and Thursday will be near the 4780 level.

This would be a good move for a subwave 3 of the larger wave 3.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, June 11, 2011 - 11:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Russell 2000 Index

Hi Bill,

You were wondering how far the US market can fall between now and the 16th. First of all I should make the point that the 16th is the Full Moon date. The FM to 3rd Quarter can also be mildly negative so the only point that I make is that the worst of the decline will be over by the 16th. The maximum upthrust tends to come from 3rd Quarter to New Moon (1st July).

Now, as you know the Russell 2000 has tended to lead the S&P500 so perhaps it can give us a view of what may happen.

First of all note that the weekly chart shows us that the index remains in an upward trending channel however the recent high did not make it to the top of the channel. Couple this with the Idiot sell on this time frame and the sell on the LOI and we can see that the index is definitely trending down.

We can also see that there is a confluence between the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the close price in the week of the 19th September 2008 (753.74). That represents a further fall of around 3.3% from the current level. Note that this is equivalent to a drop in the S&P500 down to around the 1227 level mentioned in my post 4947 on the EWW thread.

As mentioned in my previous post whilst I do expect a reasonable sort of a bounce, I also believe that it will only be a counter trend to the main trend which is down.

Just as an aside, whilst the daily and the weekly Idiot is on a sell, the monthly remains on a buy at this point in time.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, June 11, 2011 - 11:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX Target Zone

The ascending yellow and descending orange pattern gradient lines point to the potential target zone for the next interim low in the SPX. Note that the ascending blue trend line of the March 2009 rally intersects pretty closely to the horizontal green support line. All of these lines appear to be pointing a potential turning point level (and time) in the SPX.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, June 11, 2011 - 11:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I find this fascinating.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, June 12, 2011 - 02:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Copper leads SPX

I noticed that Pugs posted a chart of copper and the SPX which clearly shows that copper has been leading the SPX in terms of when bottoms occurred during the March 2009 rally by several weeks.

This is just more evidence that we can expect an SPX bounce in the near future.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Folks,

Andre Gratian (who is one of my favorite technical analysts) does a market report on the S&P500 every Monday on the Safehaven site. You will find this week's report at http://www.safehaven.com/article/21302/market-turning-points-weekend-report

It would appear that Andre has the same view as Randall and I have in terms of a reasonable bounce due sometime in the coming week.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, June 14, 2011 - 02:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



From my post #398 on this string

"Now to make the leap of faith, if the fractal pattern continues then the next top will occur very near May 31. Factoring the next fractal rise (343/1.61=213), the elevation of the next top will be at 1462 (1249.05+213=1462.05) on May 31."

Price failed at almost exactly 50% of the forcast rise (213/2=107) 1462-107=1355 , so if we bounce here around 1250 my first target is 1330-1345 again to form a very nice H&S top.

It would make sense to me that the upcoming bottom will occur with the shock of the lunar eclipse during the full moon 6am Sydney time June 16 or about noon New York time on June 15.


So for sequential possibilities:

1) If price breaks down below 1249 on the 15th of June, then we are likely headed for a deep correction soon. Note that in this case it could be that the head on my chart is a H&S of its own, in this case the target price for a test of the new down trend would be 1145 or there abouts.

2) If price bounces above 1249, then we are likely headed for the top of the right shoulder around 1330-1345 cresting around July15.

3) If price breaks the 1345 area to the upside, well then the sky is rapidly becoming the limit with only 1370.58 to stop it.




_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Friday, June 17, 2011 - 10:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ASX200 Sectors

I find it interesting to see how the various sectors have been performing in the ASX200 over the last 3 years relative to the index itself.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Friday, June 17, 2011 - 11:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Guys:

I wish that I'd seen this earlier, I would have made a lot more money in the last two weeks. I had the fib from the great 2008 drop, and the trend lines on my chart for a very long time.

1 marks the break of the 61.8

2 marks the back test and failure of the 61.8 break down

3 marks the second test and failure of the 61.8 breakdown as well as the back test of the trend break.

Life could be so simple, but no, I'm on my hands and knees counting gnat droppings.

Three other observations from the chart.

--we are now at the support of another trend line and some lateral price support. I think that we may get one more test of the 200ma (there have been two obvious ones already).

--The next obvious support below this level is at the 50% retracement of about $545. (imo that is where we are headed)

--The two red arrows on the W%R chart mark the two peaks that we were anticipating may31 and june13 on the way to finishing? wave 5. This gives me faith in the cycle analysis and an understanding that lower highs are the option that played out.






Speaking of cycles, isn't it about time for the June solstice, from July4 until January3 we start getting closer to the sun.

"go away in May" is poetic but maybe the saying should be go away in June.





_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Good post Hal. You're absolutely right with your comment about going away in June (not May). The following performance of the DOW since 1950 clearly shows this. June's negativity is only surpassed by September. This is probably surprising to most as the 1987 crash caused many investors to incorrectly believe that October was the bad month.




The other important thing to note is that in all three time frames (ie, daily/weekly/monthly) the Idiot is on a SELL signal so regardless of what any other methodology says, it is a dangerous time to be/go long in the market at this juncture.

(Message edited by rdumas on June 17, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Saturday, June 18, 2011 - 05:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As we approach a double bottom on the SPX in what appears to be a Flat pattern it is interesting to see the level of the VIX relative to the previous low in the price action.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Sunday, June 19, 2011 - 01:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MOOO--

rdumas wrote on Saturday, June 18, 2011 - 05:23 pm:

it is interesting to see the level of the VIX relative to the previous low in the price action


--MOOO MOOO

Do I detect the sound of a bovine call ???




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rdumas
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Sunday, June 19, 2011 - 10:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

What do you think of this chart of the USD? We've had a higher high and higher low and have so far met resistance at the overhead descending trend line. Things should get interesting for the market if the USD breaks that trend line.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 02:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Sunday, June 19, 2011 - 10:18 am:

Things should get interesting for the market if the USD breaks that trend line.




Yes, lucrative on the down side for the markets.

My short version response:

I see two pennants forming, per attached charts.

Pennants statistically breakout on the opposite side of where the price enters. In these cases, the price enters the top and statistically will exit the bottom.

On the other hand, if price is to break out upward from the pennants (as you have suggested), I think that there will be one more touch of the lower trend of rising bottoms.

The key level that I am watching on the upside is $21.73 on UUP and $76.13 on dxy0. This looks like the break point to me where there is the most frequent turning points of price on multiple time frames. So, I'll start to get excited if the daily price candle paints COMPLETELY above that line.

On the other hand, if the daily candle paints COMPLETELY below the current rising bottom, then your bullish rally on the markets will likely develop. One of my respected mentors believes that the bullish scenario for the markets is his highest probability opinion.

Personally, I have a predisposition to the underdog. In otherwords, I generally focus on the lower probability development because there is usually a higher reward on that side of the play. If the breakout is to the up side and is easy to miss(as in too fast), it may bounce off of $22ish and come back to the breakout to provide another long entry opportunity.

Notice on the weekly for dxy0 that the W%R is just tickling the ROC. A decided crossing of these two would also increase my confidence in an upward move of the dollar.








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ehmu
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 03:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



More on the US$

From a free article published on stockcharts. This article favors your breakout scenario a little more than I do, and it is written by an experienced professional, which I am not.

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2011/06/whats-uup-with-the-dollar.htm l


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rdumas
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 08:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

As you know, I am expecting a secondary degree counter rally to commence in this time frame based on my cycle analysis. This would obviously mean that I would expect the USD to do as you suggested and head down towards the lower boundary of the contracting wedge pattern in your chart whilst the equities rally took place.

I have drawn 3 channels on the chart below. The index has already fallen out of the short term blue channel.

The SPX is nearing a critical support level. The lower boundary of the rising green trend channel for the March 2009 rally is at this time sitting around the 1250 level. The March 16, 2011 low was 1249.05 so this level is likely to be a pretty strong support level from which to stage a rally.

Should this fail then the third (orange) trend channel comes into play. Unless the falls are very severe in the near future, the time taken to reach the lower boundary of the orange channel would greatly exceed the time requirement for a new bottom calculated in my cycle analysis. For that reason I believe the higher probability scenario would be for the green channel lower boundary to hold for the current decline.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 11:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy, thanks:

Currently bouncing off the 200ema, which is a popular support.

1250 is exactly at the 233ema fib, which I like. (strange)--your green

1202 is exactly your orange trend line and 377ema fib, which I like. (stranger). I have to take your word for the orange/green description since I am very color challenged.

I'm not sure about your idea that it will soon bounce. Just by my eye, I'm looking at the terminal slope of the last few pull backs, and they are almost vertical. If this one is similar we could easily hit 1200 in a couple of days of trading. Tuesday or Wednesday. How's that timing fit your model for a bottom??


It may even bounce here at the 200ema, but I'm not betting on any of the alternatives. Short term I may play the US break downs, but not the bounces. I'm still 1/2 in my Canadian short with very tight stop.

Very treacherous trading environment, take care.

h




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rdumas
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Monday, June 20, 2011 - 12:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

With the Idiot in all timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) all in a sell, I have to agree with you about the index being very dangerous at present.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Wednesday, June 22, 2011 - 09:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings:

Flush with cash, exited remaining shorts via tight stops monday and the final dribble at the open this morning.

Mc put in a low on monday and looks like thursday (earliest) will meet the downtrend resistance. Chart attached below.

RUT bounced to the 89ema, while XII stopped short at the 21ema (ma's are aligned bearishly--inverted). This might be a psych job by the pros, but I am remembering that they led the way down. The fact that the pros weren't as bullish as the general market today gives me a little pause getting on the bull bus. XII and RUT are both crossing bullishly on the daily idiot.








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ehmu
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Wednesday, June 22, 2011 - 09:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Shanghai recently broke down below major major support 2660 that has lineage back to March 07. It seems to like playing with this level when it gets there, so a serious breakdown may take a while to develop, or breakout for that matter.


Other than that it looks pretty flaccid to me.





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ehmu
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Wednesday, June 22, 2011 - 11:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Thanks to your shanghai post, I'm putting FXP on my radar.

Above $30 should be some easy money.


Also could get a good bounce off of 89ema.

H






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rdumas
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Wednesday, June 22, 2011 - 11:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

My pleasure. I will be re-assessing my future investments. I'm finding that I don't like jumping in and out of the market all of the time especially with my SMSF capital.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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Wednesday, June 22, 2011 - 11:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Wednesday, June 22, 2011 - 11:21 am:

I don't like jumping in and out




Ezagly my sentiment.



H







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rdumas
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Thursday, June 23, 2011 - 08:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX Sagging

Comparing the US and Australian markets clearly has the US market technically much stronger than the Australian market. Having said this, there certainly is a weakening of the SPX at this stage even though it remains in its longer term upward trending channel (for the time being anyway).

The following 2.5 year chart shows the upward trending channels in play but also shows that the 20 day SMA and the 50 and 150 day EMAs are all trending down.




The following shorter term 8 month chart shows the overhead resistive influence that the 20 day SMA is having on the index at this time.




The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy
ASX Stocks 20-minute delayed

 
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