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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through May 23, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through May 23, 2011

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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 01:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for your thoughts there Dolphin. I hope we're right because I've bought myself a small parcel.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 02:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

I agree with your concern on $RUT Rudy...

Previous $RUT corrections have all commenced in similar fashion, a big impulsive wave south.

What I have noticed that perhaps they are Double Zigzag formations??

Previous corrections have called up double bottoms in their printouts, similar to this pull back. We could have completed a 1/2 up at a lower level, however your 1/2 down at the upper level is a distinct possibility. A break north of the channel may be the key to the bullish count tonight.

The MAs are in a bearish alignment, and prices rebounded south after the re-test at the close on Friday....











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billt
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 03:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The initial correction on XJO looks to be in a Zigzag (wave W) too?

The last price action today looks like another impulsive south....could the high be the completion of X of a Double Zigzag and we have more to go to complete the Y leg south?






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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 03:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

An alternate scenario which is quite negative is that we had made 3 waves down from the top and today we made a 4th wave. Now since the 4th wave intruded into the price range of the 1st wave it means that the pattern isn't an impulse wave but it could still be a leading diagonal. If we keep heading south in the next day then that could be what is playing out.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 05:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



IPL EW Count Continued

Today's completion of a 5 wave pattern followed by a 3 wave move down keeps the original EW count well in contention. The pattern suggests that we are about to see a significant move up. Today's low would have been a perfect entry point from an EW perspective.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 05:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

When a stock like IPL has been printing out lower highs and lower lows for three months, the worry I guess is that the last 5 wave impulsive down may be a part of a 3rd wave down at some level.

With 'commodities' in general in retreat it is always a concern.


bill


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billt
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Monday, May 09, 2011 - 06:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Russell 2000 US Small Caps has a valid count that the top is in....which makes your earlier count on the US Small Caps Rudy relevant.









Interesting to note that the US Agriculture fund DAG (love the ticker) is also looking like a top back in Feb may have been set....




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rdumas
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011 - 08:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re IPL. I can understand your concern however if you revisit my original chart (replicated below) you can see that the first move down to label A was definitely a 3 wave move and not a 5 wave move which it would have to be to meet your EW count.

Fundamental's logic would tend to say that what you say is correct however I can't see an EW count that fits what you say.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011 - 01:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



IPL may be in a wave 3 of 3 down?

The US Agricultural index pullback since 10 February seems to have echoed IPL from 14 February...

I might be wrong!





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billt
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011 - 01:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



..forgot to add


I can see 5 waves in that initial pullback with corrections at wave ii @ 4480/4590 (16/17 Feb) & wave iv @ 4320/4410 (21/22 Feb) - both at similar duration and value.


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rdumas
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011 - 02:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Your count for the move down from the top has merit and looks a definite possibility.

As for the count for the rally leg from July 2010 to February 2011 I suspect that it is incorrect. Wave 3's cannot look like that. Whereas wave 1's can be leading diagonals and wave 5's can be ending diagonals and hence have wave 4's that intrude into the wave 1 price range, wave 3's must be truly impulsive and hence must obey all of the rules relating to an impulse wave.

In the meantime, I'm enjoying what I believe is a wave 3 of 3 up for IPL. My view only and like your's could be wrong. No doubt it won't be long before we find out.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011 - 02:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There are not many XJO stock that you can put an impulsive count to!! I keep trying, but I should just stop....


The run from Feb 09 was some form of multiple zigzag b wave correction...the issue is whether the recent price action off the Feb 11 top is impulsive rather than corrective.... is this yet another impulsive move down of another zigzag or is it the beginning of the c leg in an impulse run south in a 1/2, 1/2 printout?


Good luck with it:







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rdumas
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011 - 02:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bill,

Don't worry mate. I'll pull out if it gets down to the price of a couple of lobster meals.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 08:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Not looking good

Both the $RUT and $SPX look to have made a 5 wave move down so it looks like there is more downward moves to go. The daily, 99 minute and 60 minute intraday LOI's are all on a sell signal. At this stage my favoured EW count for the SPX (shown below) remains valid. It would however be invalidated if Minuette wave 2 breached the Minute wave 2 level at 1294.7.










I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 08:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oopps I forgot a couple of labels (Minor waves 3 and 4).




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 08:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy.
I think you are right, more downside to come
until a low is put in place Friday or Monday.
The wave structure at this stage looks incomplete
and would look better with one more push up to
new highs ( or possibly a truncation) to complete
what appears to be an ending diagonal pattern.
So a low tomorrow or Monday will set up nice
for a 21 day push up in the last leg to complete
the bill run from March 2009

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 10:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

I agree but with the possibility that the down side may even go down a day or two longer. Randall and I were discussing it off line and as a result of those discussions I think that the following EW count could be given possibly an even greater probability of being correct. In this count we would be in a Minute wave 4 at this time.

Now since this wave 4 intruded into the price range of Minute wave 1 it means that we have an Ending Diagonal in play. When we look at how far it will possibly intrude into the price action of Minute wave 1 it really opens up the possibility of a truncated Minute wave 5.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 10:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy,

I totally agree with your wave count. The only uncertainty
is whether the pattern will truncate or make a new
high. Probably does not matter as time more important
than price. It became clear to ne in January that the market
would continue to trend until June where we have
2 key dates for a top. 2nd June and 13th June according
to my long and short term delta studies.
I think 13 June is shaping up to be close.

As for the current decline, if my fib time studies are correct, then we may get a low for this leg down in Tuesdays SPX session.

Cheers


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rdumas
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 10:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Andrew,

Yep, that was the day that I had in mind too.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 03:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks for that guys,

If the turning date for Wave 4 is 17 May we may have a run back to the lower trend line, before a run towards Andrew's target dates of 2nd or 13th June for Wave 5 of the ED. 1418 or 1436 are the top of the upper trendline on those dates. 'Max' upside perhaps +7% from closing levels last night on Polly.

Timing more important than price as you say...


Is this the picture?:






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billt
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 04:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

A few technical questions on EDs:

Pug suggests: “This alternate count is for an Ending Diagonal (ED) ….. and this 1335/1336 area …..needs to hold to keep this ED count alive.”

Pug has called 4-[5] at last nights close.

I cannot understand why a trip on say Tuesday to touch the lower trend line would invalidate the ED count?

Pug also has several ED targets, and I cannot fully understand how he arrives at them? Any clues? He states:

“ED Max 1405
78% retrace =>1381
(c) = 1.62*(a) = >1375”


The key targets to me are:

1352 is wave c = wave a*0.618

1361 is the 76.4% SPX retrace from 2007/2009 position?

1381 is the intersection of current trend lines off wave 3 and 3-[5] and 4 and 2-[5]

1418 top of ED trendline 2 June - 1370 the bottom

1432 is the 38.2% fib extension off the March 09 low?

1436 top of trend line 13 June

1440 resistance 19 May 2008 high

...and any 'spooky levels' adjusted to met Andrews dates.....Astro Boy might kindly let us have those martians when he can?

thanks Rudy - no rush....


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rdumas
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 04:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I am a bit pressed for time right now but will at least answer your question in part.

PUG I think possibly thinks that Ending Diagonals must be a contracting wedge shape. Whilst that is normally the case I personally believe that this is not a rule for an ED. I would suggest that it's more of a guideline.

Now there is still a possibility that we do get the 5th wave starting from this level but as Andrew mentioned in his post, the pattern doesn't appear to be complete which is why I provided the chart in my post 4882. This shows the ED running in pretty much a parallel channel but with a wave 3 that intrudes into the wave 1 price action. As you know an impulse wave cannot do this as it breaks the rules however an ED almost always does this.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 05:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy,

I agree it looks like an ED finish....

I guess if wave 4-[5] completed last night, the five wave impulse down fits perfectly with a zigzag wave 4.

Lots of the 15 min indicators are suggesting that might be the case....but we will see tonight.

A Double Zigzag might be the obvious alternative for the completion of Wave 4-[5], as wave a seemed to be more of a Zigzag, than a straight 5 wave impulse move....your cycle work seems to hint that to be the outcome.






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rdumas
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Friday, May 13, 2011 - 08:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Back to answering another of your previous questions. Re the following:

Pug also has several ED targets, and I cannot fully understand how he arrives at them? Any clues? He states:

“ED Max 1405
78% retrace =>1381
(c) = 1.62*(a) = >1375”


You will find that the previous rally went form 1294.7 to 1370.58 which gives a range of 75.88 points. The retracement from that high went down to 1329.17. If you add 75.88 to the 1329.88 the answer is 1405.05. Our friend PUGsy has rounded down to the nearest whole number.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, May 13, 2011 - 10:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy,

I think I have worked out Pugs 'max' according to the Cheat Sheet.

The guideline ratio that w3>w1 or w5 has not been achieved as yet. Therefore w5 now must be equal or less than w3.

A "throw over" is now less likely.

The Cheat Sheet suggests that w5>0.5*w4...which is the minimum "throw under" I assume. If w4 completed @ 1329, then the recent top of 1359 could be a legitimate EW w5 ED top on the "throw under" I assume? This of course does not accord with Andrew & your own cycle work.


thanks

bill


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billt
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Saturday, May 14, 2011 - 08:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A possible 4-[5] ED finish last night in a Contracting Triangle abcde print.

A pullback on Monday to the 1333 low area will be sufficient to tag the rising trend line from the March low.

Note that IC has some missing printout at the 1332.03 low.

Targets outlined in an earlier post still hold, but the maximum 'w5<w3' target may now have risen to 1409, if 1333.36 was w4 finish. 1392 to 1409 looks the possible target range for the completion. The minimum target is currently 1363.22, w5 half w4, could provide an earlier completion.

Andrews & Rudys possible target completion date of 13 June aligns perfectly with the intersection of the trendlines @ 1392. This will deliver only another c.4% rise in SPX.

If this rise is replicated on XJO, the 11 April 2011 XJO top @ 4976 may have been a significant one as we need a rally on XJO of 5.6% to take that high out.

A Zigzag w5 finish will possibly bounce off these trendlines, so I intend to use those as targets to trade this final leg.












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rdumas
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Saturday, May 14, 2011 - 02:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

As explained in my Market Wrap, if we really do have an ending diagonal in play then 1409 is out of the question because it exceeds the range of wave 3 thus making wave 3 the shortest wave.

On the other hand if the wave count in my post 4881 is correct then it is achievable.

In fact we have an inverse H&S pattern terminating around 1421.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, May 14, 2011 - 03:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy

I guess it depends at what value w4 terminates...if the Contracting Triangle completes w4 then 1333.36 may be the start of the wave length of w5. (I assume w4 completes when the pattern exhausts itself, and not some other earlier low within the pattern..?)



You put a lot of effort into preparing the WMW, I do appreciate it.

The importance of Andrew's work has been so important to the overall thought process over the past 12-24 months....I find it odd to now have his end date in sight!

His next mission is to the target Wave C completion...looking at SPX and taking a similar rate of decline to the 2008/09 Wave A, we might see Wave C terminating in January 2012 at the c.884 level (23% fib) ... but I'll leave that to you guys...

A corrective pattern bouncing around the 38/50/61 fibos is the likely outcome for wave c?





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rdumas
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Sunday, May 15, 2011 - 10:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

Due to family commitments I will be unable to spend much time communicating on IC in the coming week so I thought that I would give a brief summary of where I believe that the US market is located in its cycle from an Elliott Wave perspective.

In my Weekend Market Wrap I discussed in some detail the scenario where the SPX may be in an Ending Diagonal for its Minor level 5th and final wave of the March 2009 rally. As explained in the Market Wrap, if this scenario were correct then the absolute maximum level that the SPX could get to was 1405.4 based on the fact that because the 3rd wave was shorter than the 1st wave it meant that the 5th wave had to be shorter than the 3rd wave.

The above 1405.4 level could only be reached if the index rallied from the current level and the Minuette wave a of Minute level wave 4 was not breached.

The other important aspect of this scenario is that as Minute level wave 3 took 9 trading days to complete then we have the possibility that Minute level wave 5 could also complete in a similar time frame. This would mean that it was plausible that we could Form the top of the March 2009 rally towards the end of May rather than the 6th to 13th June as currently anticipated.





The other possibility that I see is that my earlier favoured EW count for the SPX plays out. In this case we have a Minute wave 3 that is extending and we are only in the process of still forming Minuette wave 2 or having just completed it.

In this scenario as Minute wave 3 hasn't yet completed then we have the potential to end the March 2009 rally at a level higher than 1405.4 and also stretching out the time for completion to the anticipated June dates.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011 - 09:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX closed just on the Ending Diagonal (ED) trendline, spiking through it inter day bouncing off the 50 d MA.

The ED count of 4-[5] gives a suitable timeframe for a June completion which tags with the cycle work.

I am less certain on the 1/2,i/ii count at this juncture as the ii is approaching a 61% retrace which looks fairly weak to me for a wave 3 move. If this count is correct it will mean that we have only completed 40% of the wave in 2 months which would have us completing in another 3 months time - well outside Andrew's cycle date. Unless you see something different Andrew, I am discounting that option for now.

One other EW idea is that the ED count has already completed with a throw under @ 1359 on 10 May.

PUG has us in a pattern south with Wave 4 yet to complete...this would put the end date for the pattern out by many, many months. Again, that doesn't seem to fit with Andrew's work.

On the cycle work it would appear to me that the ED 4-[5] count is still the higher probability, but SPX needs to start wave 5 asap otherwise it will be lost.

If we break the lower 11 month trendline then I favor the EW count that the ED has completed with a throw under. The sharp reversal of US GDP announced as we reached 3-[5] may prove to be terminal.





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billt
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Further to my earlier post this morning, the 4-[5] ED completion would have the c wave completing last night in a 5 wave move off the 1343.33. The concern is that at the 1 min chart level, it looks to be possible start of a much larger trip south....

..... if 1359.44 was the throw under 'failed 5th', there is an obvious i/ii down count available too...












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billt
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Saturday, May 21, 2011 - 11:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interested to get your read this weekend Rudy, but if we have a June top which is now only another trading week or two away, I still favor the expanding Ending Diagonal completion. Perhaps a Triple 3 to drag out the finish?





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billt
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hi Rudy

Just read your WMW and I tend to agree with your summary:

"Readers should be aware that the New Moon will occur on the 2nd June. New Moons are very often close to market tops so it would be a good time to put an end to the March 2009 rally in the S&P500. This doesn’t give it much time to pull out of its current negative technical’s in order to stage a rally into that time period. This even calls into question whether the earlier high of 1370.58 can be exceeded in the time left to form a top."

SPX, DOW & Nasdaq all look like they have a ED 5 of 5 to finish. Worth noting that all these indices have already achieved a 'throw under' ED 5 - [5] finish.

On SPX if 1318.51 was the completion of 4 - [5], with a wave length of 52.07, then a 26.04 rally would be sufficient for a throw under. That target would be 1344.55. SPX hit that on Friday, so from an EW position the ED wave count could have already completed with a 'throw under' 5 - [5] @ 1346.82. We reached there with an impulsive 9 waver which 'has me thinking' maybe Polly has something else left in the tank.

On the bullish side, the month long Bull Flag on SPX may give one last spurt north for a full moon top - the martians would approve!

Also on the bullish side, the impulsive move north from 1318.51 to 1346.82 looks to me to be a 9 waver, which suggests that we may have another impulse wave higher before we drop.....some minor divergences in play which may deliver that outcome. If c=a a target of 1358.98 (if 1330.67 is the b low). If we reach the 1358 target quickly, we may have time for another quick zigzag north before the FM rises...but that would be greedy. I would prefer to see a 'correct' zigzag finish for wave 5 - [5] before I give up the count! The 1341.85 just fell short of the required wave length.

Plenty to be bearish about....the list gets longer & longer..






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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Yes, that chart sure makes it look like it may have been a throw under but lets see what the New Moon brings. I'm not inspired by the technicals on the SPX at all at this stage. I would be interested to know what Dolphin thinks.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Sunday, May 22, 2011 - 09:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



S&P 500

from
ChartWatchers Newsletter from StockCharts.com



THE MARKET'S HAD A FIVE WAVE ADVANCE

Determining Elliott Wave counts can be very subjective. One way to make it little easier is to employ a "ZigZag"overlay on the price chart. [The ZigZag is located in the same Overlays menu that includes moving averages]. The idea of the ZigZag overlay is to apply a percentage filter on market trends. The default setting is 5% which means that only price moves of at least 5% are shown. Anything smaller than 5% is ignored. You can change the percentage filter to make the lines more or less sensitive. I increased the ZigZag filter to 7% in Chart 1 to show the two 7% corrections from last August and this March without upsetting the 5% line count. The lines help eliminate some of the subjectivity when counting market waves. Chart 1 shows five clear lines since last summer's bottom. Three up lines and two down lines. [The numbers were added by me]. Elliott Wavers know that five-wave advance is usually a signal that an upmove has been completed and that correction within the uptrend is likely. I've also recently shown a number of negative divergences on daily and weekly indicators like RSI. Why that's important is that fifth wave negative divergences are usually more serious warnings of a market correction.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p45193107963




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Sunday, May 22, 2011 - 09:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Unfortunately wave 5 shown in Chartwatcher's chart only has 3 clearly identified waves thus making it invalid as either an impulse wave or an ending diagonal as both of these require a 5 wave pattern.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Starboard,

Further to your post in the Non Elliott Wave Watching thread relating to the Fibonacci relationships of the March rally in the SPX. Another interesting thing about these relationships from an EW perspective is the following:

Note that the SPX retraced around 76.4% of its 2007~2009 plunge whereas the XJO only recovered around 50% of its 2007~2009 plunge.

Why is this interesting? Considering the economy of the US compared to that of Australia, one would think that Australia has the stronger economy. The EW patterns suggest that the US market is stronger than that of Australia.

To understand why we need to look at the Rules and Guidelines relating to Zigzags (the most bearish pattern), Flats (the mid range bearish pattern) and Contracting Triangles (possibly the least bearish pattern).

Zigzag Rule}

Wave B must retrace at least 20% of wave A

Zigzag guidelines

Wave B should end nowhere near beginning of Wave A
Wave B should retrace at least 30% of Wave A.
Wave B is most likely to retrace Wave A by about 38.2%.
Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 50%.
Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 61.8%.

The largest Wave in B is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A.

Flat Rule

Wave B must retrace more than 70% of Wave A.

Contracting Triangle Rule

Wave B of a CT must retrace Wave A by at least 50%.

The above Rules/Guidelines suggest that the SPX will more than likely form either a Flat or a Contracting Triangle whereas the XJO could turn out to be either a Contracting Triangle or (heaven forbid) a Zigzag.







I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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starboard_tack
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Sunday, May 22, 2011 - 10:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Thanks. I wasn't sure which thread that I should have posted to. The chart that I posted was showing the Long Wave Dynamic fib levels calculated from the 1982 - 2007 bull. The green lines are the level 1 lines, and the red are level 2. It is quite spooky how closely the SPX has followed these levels. The XAO however doesn't fit quite so well.

For this discussion I will re-attach the 5 year chart from the other thread. Considering that previous major tops and bottoms have been at level 1 (green) lines it would look like either the top is already in, or there will be a run up to the next one at 1443.61. Now that would be a very large ask.

SPX

Now, drilling down to the last 12 months, you can see where the level 2 lines have also been closely followed. The 76.4 and the 85.4 level 2 lines would appear to be drawing the line in the sand?




"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

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rdumas
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Sunday, May 22, 2011 - 11:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Starboard,

The other thread was probably the appropriate thread but as my post had an EW aspect to it I decided to put it in this thread. I wouldn't be too concerned though as I hope readers of the threads aren't overly dogmatic about sticking strictly to the intents of the threads especially when people are attempting to maintain continuity in a discussion.

Those Fib levels (both level 1 and 2) certainly speak volumes don't they?


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Sunday, May 22, 2011 - 07:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I still favor a push north, but as we have the 'throw under' already in play, it will make an interesting week.


-'down trending first harmonic Sun, Mercury, Venus and Mars lines' to stop Polly @ 1379 or below (Astro Boy thought);

-'bull flag' wave [4]....confused everyone just as it should have done;

-upper trendline from 3 to [3]-5 insects to [5]-5, bisecting 1379 on 2 June

-BBs pincering in for a move one way or the other!

-divergences everywhere, just as you would expect for a [5]-5 .....

-1361: 76.4% fib 2007/09 could provide another pivot







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ehmu
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Sunday, May 22, 2011 - 10:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Sunday, May 22, 2011 - 09:38 am:

3 clearly identified waves





Hi Rudy:

Yes, I noticed that as well. Fortunately our human brains can see past the current price print, whereas the zigzag feature on stockcharts is constrained to using data limited to history.

If I recall, whenever EW'rs use the word could in a sentence, they are talking about one of the multitude of possible wave counts in the future.

I simply posted the article and imagined a possible ending to the novel. Since I don't qualify to speak EW, I didn't comment in order to avoid any embarrassment or confrontation.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Monday, May 23, 2011 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I agree with you regarding the final push up. I also agree with Hal in that we may not get a new high for all of the good reasons he mentioned in his post on the Non EWW thread.

Andrew hasn't had any time to look at the market for some time now other than his cycle analysis. He told me this weekend that the 1 and 2 year cycles had topped out already but the 4 year cycle still had not. This sets up the possibility that we could get a truncated 5th wave.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, May 23, 2011 - 02:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy for passing on Andrew's analysis...obviously we are very near the end. I was very keen to hear how Andrew's count was looking like considering he forecast this end date years ago! When Andrew comes up for air, he can kindly put a date on C for us.....Andrew gets an A+ for his efforts.

Interested to get a read on the $AUDUSD outlook. Forex is a Black Art but thought we could give it some air time. Join in anyone who wants to add your thoughts...

The longer term chart is a more complex corrective.

Many pundits are suggesting the $AUD to run much higher, but I am not that convinced. If the 'risk' trade comes off and we begin a correction back to the 76% fib levels on SPX, I feel the $AUD could also come off once again.

The interest rate differential between US and Aus' may begin to contract, and with commodity prices set to be topping out, the hunger for the $AUD may recede. The Aussie economy looks less appealing away from the miners, and with great big new taxes on most things I am less than convinced that Aus' will see out this next period as well as it has done to date. That should all put a downward appeal to the $AUD.

On an EW basis, if C=A then that brings prices back precisely to the 76% fibo as well. The target would be c.72c, which, interestingly, is the long term average exchange rate for the 'battler' against the greenback. The price action could be a 1/2, i/ii DOWN count off the $1.10?

We have an H&S formed at the $1.10 top, which if activated, would push us below the 12 month trend line.

Obviously $AUD is a big consideration on the GOLD play as a 'short'...

POG did pullback 30% in the SPX 2008 correction (A leg), so that also is a factor to consider too. USA didn't have $14 trillion of debt at that stage, nor did it have the Fed printing $3 trillion of spare greenbacks....so the 'debasement' angle is a new consideration on POG.

GOLD came off 15% during 2008, but 2011 may be much different.


Thoughts?






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gdd3
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Monday, May 23, 2011 - 03:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys...apologies for the late response..other pressing issues here.

What a shocker in our local markets(XJO) here! Having said that, I just can't see that the $SPX, from a pure Chart point of view, is as bad! Now if we accept that most of us on this E.W. thread are still looking for confirmation signals that our WAVE "B" is nearing completion with most here still thinking that we only have another minor wave up(wave 5 of Wave C to complete WAVE "B"), sort of as shown in my first crude chart here.





However, what concerns me with your "Throw-under/Diagonal 5th" count in the short-term, Bill, is that wave 1 of this last impulsive move(for Wave C) was accepted as being a Diagonal. The thing is, I understand in E.W. terms, you can only have a one Diagonal (Wave1 or Wave5) in 1 impulse 5 wave move not two as you are suggesting.

So with that in mind, is it possible(Rudy) that just may be we have completed only a wave b of an abc for Wave4, and since the late Feb. Wave3 swing high we are mapping out an Irregular Wave4 as shown in the next two charts below here. This may be possible but respect that the supporting Cyclical Time frames, that we are also favouring atm, may not "allow" sufficient time for this count to function(not unless the early June timing is for the Wave4 low or we have an almost immediate completion of Wave4 in the coming days. If an Irregular is "panning-out" the depth of waveC(whether it is equal to waveA in price range or %price range, that is wave c ~1.625 x waveA or waveA range:waveB = 1.31 x waveB to give waveC destination)will determine the strength of a Wave5 final leg to complete the WAVE C for WAVE "B" we are all looking for. Hence, on the third chart I have shown two levels for C for 4
as ~ 1276 or 1219. Note 1276 is also ~ equal to the 150EMA(red) and the 1219 is ~ equal to the 38.2% retracement of this last impulsive leg up so far and is also a strong horizontal chart support level(shown on the Wkly Chart).







As a final "attachment", here is one basic graphic explanation of an Irregular Correction in E.W. terms.



}


Cheers and the very best of GOOD LUCK!

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Monday, May 23, 2011 - 04:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I've been out all day and just returned home to see the damage. In the short correspondence that Andrew and I had over the week end he did tell me that the AUD would start heading down in the not too distant future. I assumed that it would follow the XJO down as during the decline the USD would be climbing.

As Randall and I have mentioned on numerous occasions, the 2nd June is the NM but not only that it also is a strong Fibonacci time period. Andrew suggested that it is quite possible that the market will top on this date but if it happens to form a low on that date then the likelihood is that the top will occur around the 13th June.

Andrew told me that he would more than likely be playing the 3xbear stock as well as the ETF GOLD during the upcoming decline post the completion of Primary wave B.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 23, 2011 - 04:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Re your comment "However, what concerns me with your "Throw-under/Diagonal 5th" count in the short-term, Bill, is that wave 1 of this last impulsive move(for Wave C) was accepted as being a Diagonal. The thing is, I understand in E.W. terms, you can only have a one Diagonal (Wave1 or Wave5) in 1 impulse 5 wave move not two as you are suggesting."

To the best of my knowledge that rule only applies to a Zigzag (ie, waves A and C cannot both be a diagonal) and does not apply to an impulse wave.

Regarding the idea of the SPX not being in a 5th wave but still in a 4th wave as Tony Caldaro suggests. I personally think that Tony is probably stretching things with that particular count. Of course if I were in his shoes I would be saying the same thing because the current price action is obviously not presenting as a 3rd of a 3rd wave at all and to be quite frank he is very quickly going to run out of bullish EW options in the coming months. Mind you, I hope that he is right and that we did start the next bull market in March 2009.

It is my view that his bullish count is going to look pretty sick in the coming months. The period of June to October is historically the least profitable and to hope that this period will present investors with a wave 3 of any significant level is 'living in hope'. Naturally enough that is only my opinion.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, May 23, 2011 - 05:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

I was not aware of that rule either Dolphin, but I will leave the rules to you guys.....my 'Cheat Sheet' is defective if you are right!

A few things have not blended in my mind on the count since the 1010 SPX low. Caldaro concluded his 5 wave count off the 1010 @ 1344. I tend to feel that looks better to my untrained eye...

Perhaps we have a more complex corrective running from March 09 - a Double or Triple Zigzag even? (..i just like putting zorros on the chart!)

It looks to me that we will have a 'Imp - Cor - ED' Zigzag 'happy ending' off the 1010 low?

An ED finish at this point certainly fits with the cycle timetable pattern. The incomplete wave 4 would push us out several months which doesn't seem to fit the bearish technicals and fundamentals - but you are not alone on that idea Dolphin, Pug & others have that count alive and well?


..all good fun...






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billt
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Lots of nonsense to bother you today Rudy...$SPX - $AUD - & now $IUX!

US Small Caps...

It looks to me to be a Flat for $IUX, with a possible Wave C Impulse retrace to the bottom...what goes up the most perhaps will get whipped on the way down too!

(253% decline x 3 = +761%)





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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I have to agree. It sure looks like a Flat in the making.

If you ignore EW though, don't the technicals on this chart look reasonably positive at the moment? The 50 and 150 day SMAs don't show any serious problems at the moment.










I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Monday, May 23, 2011 - 10:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy...

"To the best of my knowledge that rule only applies to a Zigzag (ie, waves A and C cannot both be a diagonal) and does not apply to an impulse wave."

...thanks for setting the "record straight"; just may be my "dementia" has again reared its unfortunate head....by the way, I haven't checked out Tony Caldaro count(or his site) for at least six months so thanks for the "connection". The essence I was suggesting in my post above was that since the late Feb. swing high we seemed to have 'mapped out' 2 x 3-wave swing moves hence my suggestion that maybe we had completed an "ab" of an "abc"(or even an "abcde") for a possible wave4 only and, therefore, still had a wave 5 to go remembering I didn't think you could have two diagonal impulses in one large degree Impulse move!

However, the more I look at it, the possibilities of my count since the July10 swing low being AOK are limited(I was always 'worried' by the corrective action during Nov.10 and how that was valid with my Wave3 count...may be Bill's Y.XX.ZZ count is more on the money). The only difference here in the very short-term(coming days, week) Bill is with your count the $SPX has to 'defy' the short-term odds that a lot of your other charts are showing already...and that is down for at least the early part of this week.

As you said...All Good Fun!

Cheers Guys,

Dolphin }}}

 
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