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Archive through August 09, 2011

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Non Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through August 09, 2011

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ehmu
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 02:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Bernanke Bulls are not dead, but a little confused.

My goodness, this TA is truly amazing when you see the way price action seems to obey some invisible barriers.

The market indexes are all still propped up by the PTT (above the sacred 200ema), but the Institutional investors are dancing much closer to the door than the PTT.

Attached chart of XII---institutional investor index

1 We are in an established down trend that has resistance represented by the 21ema (light blue).

2 The institutional investors have taken their holdings down below the 200ema again today, but bounced off of the upward trend line. The bulls are marginally safe until a daily candle paints below this upward trend line, however, the institutional investors have shown their intentions methinks by being poised to be the first to the door when a massive sell-off occurs.

(twenty huge bodies trying to get through a 2 foot doorway at the same exact time--not to mention adrenalin)

I hunch that they have done rotation/rotation/rotation to stabilize their holdings in preparation for the down draft---but watch out how many of them have their stops set just below the $560 level marked on the chart.

3 The W%R has made a couple of attempts to signal an upward break of the ROC, but has been rejected as if a rubber bullet on Kevlar.

The 200ema has now achieved a slightly downward tilt, so they're finding an increasing shortage of space to stand near the exit.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 03:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Monthly Idiot on "Caution"









_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 11:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Chart of the Day

Today's Chart of the Day gives us the latest status of the DOW when priced GOLD. The good news is that it has currently broken out of the descending channel.


"For some perspective on the long-term performance of the stock market, today's chart presents the Dow priced in another global currency gold (i.e. the Dow / gold ratio). For example, it currently takes less than a mere eight ounces of gold to 'buy the Dow' which is considerably less than the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999. Priced in gold, the Dow has been in a massive 11-year bear market. Recently, the Dow (priced in gold) stopped declining for long enough to break above its six-year, accelerated downtrend channel. However, shortly after the break out, the Dow (priced in gold) pulled back to post-crisis lows."





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Sunday, June 26, 2011 - 04:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Investment bankers,--- you may not like them or you may even detest them; but they command your respect.

They can be piloting a super tanker, full of cargo, going full speed and manage to park it on a dime.

Do you have any doubts about who is in control ???

See charts below for friday trading. I have the green horizonal line set at $561 (not 560).



ehmu wrote on Saturday, June 25, 2011 - 02:47 am:

I hunch that they have done rotation/rotation/rotation to stabilize their holdings in preparation for the down draft---but watch out how many of them have their stops set just below the $560 level marked on the chart.








and again in slow motion--





_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011 - 08:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



JULY EFFECT

Oh well, we had the June effect. Question is, will we get the July effect?






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011 - 09:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes, perhaps the inverse etf's will carry the markets in July.

Wouldn't that be a kicker.

H


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These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Wednesday, June 29, 2011 - 12:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BillT chose the perfect time for R&R, when you see the doldrums on the McClellan. The reading has been negative and holding there for about a week now.

I expect some sort of reflex action around the new moon July 1 or so, but if nothing changes on the balance of buying selling, then that will be a measure of how stuck we are.

I also like to watch what the Institutional Investors are doing (second chart below).

The parts of their portfolios that they routinely swing trade use the 21ema to guage which side of the swing to be on.

When price is established below the 21ema they sell the rallies (at the 21ema) and buy a bounce. (on more agressive selling the 13ema provides resistance)

When price is established above the 21ema they buy the dips (at the 21ema) and take profit at a pull back from a high.

Note on the chart below for XII that 21ema (thin blue line) is still providing resistance to the buyers. I also see that even though price on this index is below the 200ema, that there is a broadening and rounding price pattern developing. To me this means that there is increasing disagreement about price between the buyers and sellers, but the sentiment is beginning to bend toward the up side.

In the event that price can get back above the 200ema and the 21ema, we would then likely see the Institutional Monkeys create a rally.








_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Wednesday, June 29, 2011 - 06:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



other indications of breakout to watch on XII (Institutional Investor Index)

UP

I have marked a recent and common Resistance/Support level on the daily chart below for XII. This level that I have marked is $575. Notice that the last breakout to the upside, $575 is the level where buyers took control.


The daily "idiot" price averages are wavering at a buy, the daily "idiot" macd is showing a buy, and the daily cci "canaries" are showing strength.




DOWN

Notice a significant level is $582. If you look closely at the Pattern above $582, it looks a lot like a H&S pattern. Breakdowns of H&S patterns generally correct to a negative correction equal to the height of the head from the neckline. That is roughly 30 points which may take the correction to $552 before commencing upward.

On the weekly chart (second chart) the "idiot" is still in the sell zone. Also worth noting is the long term horizontal support at $560 that we recently bounced off of.



SIDEWAYS

We swing traders love the volatility and wide trading ranges, but this chart does have the third potential just to go sideways for a while within a 20 point range. This could extend Bills holiday indefinitely.







_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Wednesday, June 29, 2011 - 09:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

We have the July effect coming up............ we have my anticipated MTD rally due in this time frame...........we have the SPX near the long term support off the March 2009 rally trendline and we have positive divergence in the daily MACD.

To me the time is ripe for a medium term rally.

A move through the 50 day SMA at 1303.67 will be enough evidence for me that the move is underway.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ken
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Wednesday, June 29, 2011 - 09:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Do you see a medium term upleg for the XJO also? We've been behaving significantly differently to the US indicies.

Ken


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ehmu
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Wednesday, June 29, 2011 - 10:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes Rudy:

Very compelling.

I use the 34ema which puts us closer to a break by your accounts.

However, I might be a little late to join on the long side, since I'm noticing the overshoot of 13 points on the last New Moon May31ish.

I will likely take the short side near the top of a wide range up day tomorrow or Thursday with a tight stop. And if I get stopped out, then I may go long.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Thursday, June 30, 2011 - 08:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

Whilst some of my cycles analysis suggests a possible low having been put in place and a high to form in several weeks from now, the nature of the pattern between the low and the high is less predictable. The problem with cycles work is that it looks at the timing of lows and highs and not what the price levels are. On the basis of my cycles work all I can say is that we should not go below the recent low for several weeks.

To determine how far above the low we go in any upward trend needs analysis using other methodologies. Just because we anticipate a high which is at a higher level than the previous low doesn't necessarily mean that we will get a significant rally. We could just as easily have a sideways moving pattern over the next few weeks that trends to a new high.

I'll discuss the SPX in this post and address Ken's question in a separate post.

We can see from the chart below that the SPX has definitely rallied off a low but now it is coming to some pretty strong overhead resistance. First of all the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is at 1314. We can also see some potential overhead resistance levels (green and blue lines) in this region. Then just above these levels we have a descending red trend line. I would suggest that these levels should take the sting out of the current rally.

We also have the lunar phases working against the rally. The New Moon falls on the 1st July. These often form tops and the New Moon to Full Moon period (1st July to 15th July) is statistically a negative period. It is important to recognise that when I say 'statistically negative' it means that there are times when this period can be positive but when we take the sum of all the positive NM to FM periods and all of the negative periods that we get a negative result.

Whilst I could be totally wrong, I suspect that it will be pretty volatile for the next couple of weeks with not too much of a move up beyond the above overhead resistances in the coming week or two.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Thursday, June 30, 2011 - 09:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm off for some r&r, have fun everyone.

H


_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Thursday, June 30, 2011 - 10:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

Regarding the XJO. Unlike the SPX which still has a buy on the monthly Idiot, the XJO has a sell on the monthly and weekly Idiot so it is in a far more negative cycle.

We can see from the chart below that the upper boundary of the descending channel is located around the 4575 leve. This also happens to be 23.6% Fibonacci retrace level of the current decline as well as being the 50% retrace level of the rally between the 24th May 2010 and 11th April 2011.




Looking at the short term pattern below we also find that the wave equality target for the pattern shown is 4575.7. I could be wrong but there is so much confluence at this level that I suspect that it will turn out to be a significant level.



Similar to the SPX I do suspect that we should not get a lower low than that achieved on the 20th June for 2 to 3 weeks however it could very well be a sideways moving market during much of this time. There is a Saturn line a bit above the 4600 level which could also be restrictive in the short term if that 4575 level gets taken out.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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Thursday, June 30, 2011 - 01:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Here are three different time frame charts to present my present "feelings" of the XJO atm....

Firstly, the Daily which sort of re-affirms your 99min chart downtrend channel resistance lines BUT also shows the 4685 as my prominent "decision" line, the current "megaphone" trading range playing out and that today's action has decisively broken above the MBB).




Secondly, a 90min chart...a "close-up" of that critical chart resistance area(~ 4685) but also remarks relating to the importance of may be waiting for a higher high in the BB to confirm we do have a bottom that you(I)and a few others have been looking for. Note, that the LOSC is nearing its "usual" peak levels(on all time frames from 15min to 90mins) so we should see a bit of a break in this current rally. Its the nature of this "reprieve" that should clarify our thoughts on the next 100point direction.



Thirdly, an EWC in the short-term that goes back a little further than your short-term count presented above BUT also highlights my last part of my comment on the 90min Chart ...
"Its the nature of this "reprieve" that should clarify our thoughts on the next 100point direction".




Just another T/A's thoughts on our XJO atm!

Cheers
Dolphin}}


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rdumas
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Friday, July 01, 2011 - 10:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I just did another post on the EWW thread where I treated that move down as a 3 wave move rather than a 5 wave move. We'll see what eventuates.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, July 03, 2011 - 08:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX Update

The SPX maintained its bullish trend by remaining above the March 2009 rally support trend line.




The recent move off the 1258.07 has been on an unsustainable rate of change. There is no doubt that the previous high of 1370.58 is under attack and will more than likely be taken out by the end of the month. The two most common alternate projection Fibonacci targets beyond the 100% level is the 200% and 261.8% levels.

With the New Moon to Full Moon period likely to come into play in the near future we may get a pause in the current rally.




The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Monday, July 04, 2011 - 02:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I am making an attempt to illustrate my earlier observations made in May.

1
The attached 7d chart shows a consolidation phase 1a that is twice the period of the consolidation phase 2a, which is twice the consolidation phase 3a.

2
It also shows that the price rise 1 took twice as long as the price rise 2.

3
It also shows that the price rise 1 was 1.61 times the price rise of price rise marked 2.

4
It also shows that each of the first two price rises retraced 31.4% of the price rise during the cosolidation phases.


What I did at the time of the previous posting was to forcast two more peaks 1460 and 1520, based on the above observations.

It looks like the pattern is failing around the 76.4% retracement of the 08/09 drop.

I'm attaching three more charts in the next post that hopefully show the resemblance of the four price rises in the discussion. (two of which are completed, and two of which were estimated).





_____ n a m a s t e

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ehmu
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Monday, July 04, 2011 - 02:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The third chart depicts the estimated pattern that I was considering, and the possible pattern failure that is developing at the 76.4% retracement level of the 08/09 drop. The pattern on the third chart looks like a coiling sideways pattern "Slim Gym" , which could resolve in either direction.

I suppose that price could still make it to 1460 by Aug1.

Notice that I used an 8day chart, 4day chart and 2day chart so that the pattern similarities would be more obvious.








_____ n a m a s t e

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ehmu
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Thursday, July 07, 2011 - 05:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



McClellan and how's he doing ?

I don't remember who to credit with the knowledge about how price can't usually remain very long in the 3 standard deviation zone, since 2std deviations is considered normal, or the zone that price falls into 95% of the time.

The attached chart illustrates a couple of things. One is that the "price" part of the chart (technically the units are %/%)has been in the 3std dev zone for three trading days now (the last trading day shown on the chart was Tuesday-yesterday). So, soon it will retrace possibly to the mid-line bolinger, or lower bolinger.

If you look at the left of the chart you will see that during the March drop that %/% dropped in to the 3std deviation zone of the bb for six days, so using this % chart may be a little different than applying it to price charts.

The bright vertical lines mark the New Moon dates, so you can draw your own conclusions about their influence.

Likewise, the dark vertical lines mark the Full Moon dates, and you can draw your own conclusions about their influence.

The next quarter moon falls on this friday, which is a likely late date for an extended top. Meaning that Friday or Monday are likely the latest relaxation points for the current push north.

That relaxation will likely last until the Full Moon July 15th. I'm guessing that a pattern may develop like it did in April at the Full Moon where there was a higher low presented.






_____ n a m a s t e

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ehmu
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Thursday, July 07, 2011 - 05:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I smell something cooking.

Don't eat it Ardy, it's horse shiddy.






Attached chart for the institutional investors index. I've never seen an index do this before. A double Doji.

http://www.forexrobotsfactory.com/10dollarstrategies/TheDojiSecret.pdf





_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Thursday, July 07, 2011 - 10:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

No time to do much posting at this time but here's a couple of short comments on your post 541.

It was I who mentioned that based on Andrew's cycle's study no stock or index can remain above the 3rd standard deviation level for more than 1% of the time. What one does need to remember is that like Bollinger Bands, these standard deviation levels do move with the price action.

The chart that you posted earlier verifies that tops statistically tend to occur near the New Moon and bottoms statistically tend to occur near the Full Moon dates.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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Thursday, July 07, 2011 - 02:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting cycle playing out on a 4hourly chart courtesy of a fellow chartest...I have added the comments plus a couple of Andrew Pitchforks.

The question to be raised is whether this cycle continues and, if so, whether it again changes from a "high to low" sequence to a "low to high" sequence as it did back from mid March to mid April. The break out of the larger(green) A.P. and the apparent new(light blue) A.P. suggests this could be so. Wouldn't be surprised if we get a re-test of the breakout of the larger A.P. first though and that may suggest we are in the process of actually seeing a new characteristic of the 17 period cycle...low the higher low! An updated 10 day 10min chart sort of indicates this could be very likely(in line with Rudy's anticipated Delta cycle; i.e. down B4 up) but there are question marks here as well.







Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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Thursday, July 07, 2011 - 04:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

This is the way I'm seeing it at present with wave X terminating around the FM date.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Friday, July 08, 2011 - 04:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rdumas wrote on Thursday, July 07, 2011 - 10:13 am:

It was I who mentioned that based on Andrew's cycle's study no stock or index can remain above the 3rd standard deviation level for more than 1% of the time.




Hi Rudy:

For sure then that you and Andrew have mentioned it.

best
Hal

ps
have you compared the highs and lows on the McLellan to your cycle analysis ? Here is a chart of Mc vs SPX. If you want, I can send you a daily database for the traditional McLellan Summation index that you could plug in to your model.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=1&g=1&id=p89105683355

(Message edited by ehmu on July 08, 2011)


_____ n a m a s t e


___________________________________________________________________________

Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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rdumas
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Saturday, July 09, 2011 - 01:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal,

As per my private email non of the software packages I use have the McLellan oscillator so I haven't really spent any time on that particular indicator.

As a matter of interest can you see any similarities between now and what happened in late 2007?

I'm not suggesting that the waves are identical because 6 didn't go as deep....just similar.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Saturday, July 09, 2011 - 11:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy:

Thanks for the charts.

On my charts, I'm not seeing any of those nice numbers or broken bubbles. I should spend some money and buy that gorgeous charting program of yours.

The chart looks a lot like an experiment with iron filings and magnets, don't you think ? It is really amazing the amount of High Frequency noise seemingly superimposed on the elemental wave patterns.

I wonder if the forces to make those images are emanating from the cosmos, or if our sick little humanity is able to create that all by ourselves.

Anyways, back to the charts. One thing that I've been looking for as a sign, is a spikey prongy inverted thingy like a few that I marked on your chart. I expected to find one located at your second numeral 6, but it's not appearing as yet.

Perhaps it will appear where your second numeral 7 is located on the chart. Come to think of it, they sort of look like Neptune's trident.






_____ n a m a s t e


___For every seller, there must be a buyer
(in the old days anyways).
________________________________________________________________________

Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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gdd3
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Monday, July 11, 2011 - 03:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Whichever short-term EWC suggested above(and summarised here with an updated chart)pans out to be correct they all one thing in common...that is the next 100-200pt move should be up. Its just a question of from where and exactly when. Rudy could be right and have to wait for the FM(~15th of July) but if any of the short-term counts I am presenting here are to be close to the mark may be we will see an earlier than expected "buy" low even as early as today's close or tomorrow sometime. To support this is an updated 4hrly chart I posted last Thursday highlighting the XJO's apparent current 17 period 4hrly swings/cycles it is also panning out(and again it came right on time late on Friday). Now what I am suggesting with my overlays is that we should be playing out two consecutive low to high sequences in this cycle, may be similar to the mid Mar - mid April run, and we have just completed one(late friday). What this means is that come the end of the next 17 period 4hrly time frame(some 11 day's from now) we should be higher than last Friday's high...in fact quite some amount higher. Hence this does support either of the three EWC presented here since last week.






Cheers

Dolphin


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ehmu
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011 - 06:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



More on XJO.

Adding observations regarding the simplicity and power of horizontal resistance/support.

It isn't always this precise, or this clear, but look at the "coincidence" of the 4582.3 High on March 16 when the buyers took control. Then look at the rejection of 4582.7 of buyers on the way down may25. Then look at the 4582.5 low july6 when price tested the 34ema whilst consolidating. Then look at the close today of 4582.3, which coincidentally is just above the 4581.66 13dema.

It is times like these that make technical analysis fun for me.

I could be wrong at the moment, I would favor XJO to rise on tomorrows open. And 4582.3 may just hold as support. It is looking like a very low risk long trade to me. If it gaps down, then the egg is on my face and all bets are off.






(Message edited by ehmu on July 12, 2011)


_____ n a m a s t e


___For every seller, there must be a buyer
(in the old days anyways).
________________________________________________________________________

Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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gdd3
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011 - 10:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ehmu...which part of that egg do you want as we need to share it?..I'll take the "y(j)oke" if its alright by you!

Oh well, we got the levels wrong but we still may be right in theory....and at least we "stood up in front of the class".

Better "luck/analysis" next time, aye!

Dolphin


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ehmu
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011 - 10:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




gdd3 wrote on Tuesday, July 12, 2011 - 10:23 am:

I'll take the "y(j)oke"




OK Dolphin, if you must take it, you may have it; however, I still do get the "y(j)oke".

I just got in and see that our analysis was pretty darn good, our direction was just a little off .

It was a very low risk setup though, so congratulations to you on another fine assessment.






_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade requires an ugly seller and an attractive buyer.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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ehmu
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011 - 11:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade requires an ugly seller and an attractive buyer.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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ehmu
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Wednesday, July 13, 2011 - 06:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Pass the eggs please.

EWA chart attached, looks like it is headed for a test of the bottom of the trading channel, and that it may coincide with the FULL moon july15 ($24).






_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade requires an ugly seller and an attractive buyer.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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ehmu
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Thursday, July 28, 2011 - 03:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Risk adjusted $us

Alarms going off.

This chart represents the world view of the potential value (reward) of investing in American equities.

The value has dropped below 1, and below one of the upward trend lines.

With the volatility so high this week, things could turn around on a dime, so be sure that I'm not recommending selling the farm to go short. But if you're still long the US markets, you had best tighten your stops.





_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goodies, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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rdumas
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The XJO Today


The XJO bounces pretty much as expected and is heading towards the overhead 50 day SMA. In the next day or two it should be at around the same level as the overhead descending red trend line which appears to be at the 1560 level or thereabouts.

There appears to be a descending Mars planetary line at about the 4525 level based on Randall's weekly planetary chart so it may be a bit of a party pooper later this week.











The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, August 01, 2011 - 02:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Intraday

The following 10 day 15 minute intraday chart shows the short term obstacles presenting themselves to the XJO in the near future. The 150 15 minute SMA and overhead descending red trend line are acting as overhead resistance at current levels and the MACD is starting to roll over.

It would not surprise to see some consolidation being required in the short term.




The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 04, 2011 - 08:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX Bounce???


As can be seen from the 10 day 15 minute chart below we have had a 5 wave move up from the bottom formed in last night's price action. All SMAs continue to fall and the price action is still well below the descending red trend line.

Note that 50 SMA has managed to operate as overhead resistance during the decline so far. At the very best I would expect a 3 wave retracement followed by another 5 wave rally. At worst, the decline will continue.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, August 04, 2011 - 01:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Where to for GOLD now???


There is no doubt that the Aussie stock GOLD has had a dramatic rise of late. The following chart that gives about 8 years of weekly data shows us that we have reached a crucial price level. Until there has been a break through the previous high GOLD currently has a some risk associated with it.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Friday, August 05, 2011 - 05:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



EHMU, knockin' at the door
EHMU, ringin' the bell
Let 'im in.

Something for you to listen to while reading the post.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0p4drWtJ0Ug

Isn't this always the way, the greedy guys in control of the markets don't want to pause to let thinkers in on the excitement.

Here are three charts. The first shows the four stages of price development. Consolidation, breakout, distribution and breakdown.

The second shows the SPX weekly (moving from stage 3 to 4decline weekly).

the third shows a narrower range (daily) of SPX to speculate where it might bounce to let some poor slobs in on the action.

The three most likely prices to produce a bounce are the peak of the first big rally (1219 where we are at this moment), half way of the pullback from 1219 (1115), and the bottom of the pullback (1010)

I have a rule "not to chase", but I have to admit that it really eats at me every single time the markets move from linear to exponential.

ps
note that the 50%retracement of the previous downage coincides with the 50% mark of the pullback of the first large rally. $1115







(Message edited by ehmu on August 05, 2011)


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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rdumas
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Friday, August 05, 2011 - 08:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible SPX Target Level

I notice that a somewhat similar pattern is emerging in the SPX to that which appeared at the early stages of the GFC in 2007/2008.

The 3rd leg down of the first pattern ended near the 78.6% Fibonacci extension of the 1st leg. If this occurs again we can expect a bounce somewhere in the area of 1170.

It should be kept in mind though that in 2007/2008 this pattern was just the beginning of worse things to come.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, August 05, 2011 - 09:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



On the same rate of decline as Wave A, interesting to note that prices are now back at that trend line.

I feel the iii-3-a-C DOWN will target the H&S goal/100% fib ext @ 1146...perhaps even tonight!

Target is 880 by 12 December 2011 (moon low)...ready for a 'Santa Rally'.

My target for a-C is 1014 38% fibo or 1010 July 2010 low, mid October 2011 at the latest.





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billt
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Friday, August 05, 2011 - 10:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



US Small Caps is a lot more dramatic.....

Prices are accelerating to keep pace with the $SPX chart above for a Xmas 2011 finish....??

The Wave C = A trend line runs out to June/July 2012, which many pundits are suggesting as the next significant bottom??


Wave a to complete at the July 2010 lows...?




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billt
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Friday, August 05, 2011 - 10:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...and for sad old Aunty....

The rate of decline similar to Wave A completes mid October 2010...not long to wait!

A Xmas 2011 completion shows us that $XJO is running on time for a completion c.3300?





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rdumas
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My View of the S&P500

The following 10 day 15 minute chart of the SPX shows us that the 50 SMA remains a strong overhead resistance to the price action. The W%R has rolled over again and until that 50 SMA remains a barrier, we must assume that the index will remain under selling pressure.






The following 6 month chart shows us the Fibonacci extension levels that have acted as either support or resistance to the third leg down in the current price action. We can see that there was a test of the 76.4% Fib extension level and a bounce back up to just below the 50% Fib extension level at 1202. The index closed at 1199.38.

With today's news about the downgrade of the US AAA rating by Standard and Poors it will be interesting to see what markets do on Monday's open.







The following 2.5 year chart of the SPX showing the Fib retracements off the March 2009 and July 2010 legs show the levels where we have some reasonably strong confluence. The first confluence zone occur at around 1096~1102 levels and the second confluence zone occurs at the 1011 ~ 1019 levels.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, August 07, 2011 - 02:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ken,

You were talking about wave equality levels in the EWW thread on the XAO. It may interest you to see that GOLD has had a wave equality scenario in its recent advance.

Now what is interesting is that this has happened not in a counter trend (thus suggesting a corrective move) but rather in an advancing trend which theoretically should be impulsive.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, August 07, 2011 - 03:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

Could I remind readers of my the following post 5015 which I posted at 8am on Friday, August 05, 2011.


Possible SPX Target Level

I notice that a somewhat similar pattern is emerging in the SPX to that which appeared at the early stages of the GFC in 2007/2008.

The 3rd leg down of the first pattern ended near the 78.6% Fibonacci extension of the 1st leg. If this occurs again we can expect a bounce somewhere in the area of 1170.

It should be kept in mind though that in 2007/2008 this pattern was just the beginning of worse things to come.







It only occurred to me to check out where the SPX dipped to during its Friday trading session and I was surprised to find that it actually did 1168.09 which as far as I'm concerned close enough to 1170.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, August 08, 2011 - 03:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Status of XJO

Well how about that. Most of the likely bounce levels discussed have been taken out big time. We can see that we are rapidly approaching the 100% Fibonacci extension level of 3927. The chart below doesn't reflect that at time of writing the index is down 3999.3 (about 28 points below that shown on the chart) !!!

As always, the system that keeps you our of trouble is the Idiot and it continues to maintain a SELL signal.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 09:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



$NYA200R
Percentage of Stocks above 200 ma

This chart gave every warning as to what was going to unfold.

As the $NYA200R heads below 30 to single digits, a lot of damage is done..this chart suggests that we are not there yet!





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ehmu
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 10:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX shorting triggers (opportunities---ie via TZA Russell ultra short etf).



Note the pullup plays marked by the notorious counter trends.






The second chart shows the monthly for the SPX, where an analyst needs to wait for the close of the monthly candle before making an assessment.

The questions that he asks himself are: "will the monthly candle close above or below the yellow support line ?? (or the mid line bb if you prefer),

and "Well do you feel lucky, punk ?"





the third chart shows the risk adjusted american (no caps--no longer a proper noun) dollar. If this chart drops to 0.35-0.37 levels, then the world has declared a double dip as of that exact moment. And then as the story goes, the world markets may either crash or bounce from that point in time. Or possibly go sideways LOL








_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 10:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The similarities in the SPX crash legs are interesting





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy
US Stocks 15-minute delayed

 
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Non Elliott Wave Watching Archive through June 23, 2011rdumas50 23-Jun-11  08:32 am
Non Elliott Wave Watching Archive through May 11, 2011rdumas50 11-May-11  08:41 am
Non Elliott Wave Watching Archive through April 29, 2011billt50 29-Apr-11  03:56 pm
Non Elliott Wave Watching Archive through April 02, 2011ehmu50 02-Apr-11  12:52 am
Non Elliott Wave Watching Archive through March 14, 2011billt50 14-Mar-11  10:29 am
Non Elliott Wave Watching Archive through February 24, 2011billt50 24-Feb-11  09:13 am

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