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Delta, Fibs and other Weird TA

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Delta, Fibs and other Weird TA

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rdumas
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Monday, February 08, 2016 - 12:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have started this thread under the Hilarius Hall of Fame thread but outside of the ODB thread to avoid the time frame methodology confusion issues that took place recently on that thread. The mind set between long and short term investors/traders can sometimes have a great divide.

The ODB thread tends to be read by longer term investors whereas the methodologies discussed in this thread tends to be more appropriate to shorter term trading.

This is not to say that the methodologies cannot be used for longer term investments, in fact the LTD Delta (Long Term Delta) methodology is ideally suited for this purpose. This thread however does use methodologies that focus on the technical aspects of market price action that are often not considered in great detail by longer term investors who use fundamentals as their primary decision making criteria. In fact this thread does not use fundamentals at all as it is my belief that the fundamentals as known or anticipated are already built into the price.

During the years that I did use fundamentals as the basis for my investments I discovered that often the fundamentals were not reflected in the price action of the stock or index. My research proved to me that whilst the fundamentals are important, the price action that drives the market is based on people's perception of what the future holds for the stock or index in question. It is driven by fear and greed and as we can see from other aspects of our lives, fear, greed or emotions in general whilst based on reality often do not reflect reality. Hence the disconnect between fundamentals and price action.

It is true that eventually price should reflect reality. The problem is that a lot of money can be gained or lost during the time where emotions and reality are not in synch.

We focus on price and time in this thread because it is price and price alone which determines whether you make a profit or loss in the share market in a timely manner.

I do encourage participation as there is much that we can learn from each other. We are all wired differently and because of this the same chart can be seen by various people with opposite views as evidence to support their view. It helps when the opposite views are expressed so that each of us can better evaluate their own position or view.

Don't be frightened to provide a view. Only the market can eventually provide us with the truth of the matter.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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Intraday Update on the XJO

In my previous post on the ODB thread I suggested that whilst there is a lot of negativity in the news media, the current price zone is one with some pretty strong support levels. My MTD chart continues to suggest that we may well rally into the May time frame. At this stage I continue to hold that view.

The daily chart showing the last 30 months of price action gives an overview of the primary Fib levels in play.





The chart below shows the last 9 months of that price action. It is provided in order to more clearly show what the price action looks like at this point in time. In spite of the extreme media negativity and the anticipated fall of 56 points forecast by our futures market, the XJO has managed to bounce nicely from this morning's low to sit on the long term blue trend line. It is also clear to see that the TMF indicator continues to trend upwards which is a good sign.








Narrowing our view down even further the chart below is an hourly chart showing the last 240 hours of price action. We can see that there is a squeezing of the BBs which indicates that the market is readying itself for a reasonable sort of a move. Whilst the direction at present is unknown, our MTD chart suggests that it should eventually be in the upward direction. We will see........










I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Well said and well done Rudy!

My own indicators put me back into BBOZ today. Now for the ride!


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hailoh
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The time indicators on my posts don't mean I've turned into an all night screen junky- just traveling in other time zones.

My chief indicator for forays into BBOZ and GEAR is the S&P weekly (Dow would do). It tells me the conjurers have lost their audiences and their halls are empty. The S&P peaked at around 2132 and if it falls to the level of the previous high at 1565 it will have lost about 26.5%, If it falls to a prominent support/resistance level before QE really got moving in May 2011 then it could end up at 1360, a fall from peak of 36%. I am surmising it will fall for most of this year with at least two major recoveries. Using the indicators shown on the attached chart, if I were able to trade in the US market, I should be able to trade these major moves with GEAR and BBOZ, albeit leaving some cash on the table before and after.

S&P weekly

The ASX is the vehicle I have to trade. It has already lost about 16.5% from its peak as a result of the commodities bust. It may have a further 10% to 20% to fall throughout 2016. The major patterns should follow the US lead but I assume there could be greater volatility. For instance I expect this current down leg might last less than 10 trading days. That would make swapping from short to long somewhat more problematic for my less than intense trading attention, meaning time on the sideline. The attached chart with the indicators shows what I mean.

ASX200 daily

For a person believing we are entering a bear market for most of this year, using BBOZ as a vehicle and simply doing very little for a long time seems quite an reasonable option. Using GEAR to take a little more off the table during upswings certainly won't hurt.


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rdumas
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Hi Hailoh,

Sorry for the delayed response but I have a maintenance project on the go at home and it currently needs most of my attention.

I enjoyed reading your post and it would appear that we have a similar view of the market in the medium term.

Great call yesterday with your BBOZ entry. Timed to perfection. I am really interested in understanding exactly how your read your indicators in order to make that call yesterday. The chart below is a daily chart of the XJO only showing the last 5 months of price action so that the latest candles and indicators are clearly seen.

Now it is clear that the price action was being held down for the previous 3 days by that 4986 Fib level but the long tails implied that the market was trying desperately to push through. The MACD is nearing a sell cross over but hasn't quite reached it yet.

What led your view that the market would fail and head south?









The chart below is the hourly chart showing the last month's price action. Now there was an impulsive move down from the top of that red trend line and a 50% corrective bounce. What is yet to be proven is whether that bounce was the completion of the corrective pattern or whether that pattern will end up being a higher level 3 wave Flat pattern (ABC) where we are only in wave B of the pattern.

If it is a Flat pattern then we are probably nearing the end of the B wave and there is a C wave rally to follow.

On the other hand if it smashes through the previous low at 4803 then indeed we could be in the midst of the next impulsive move down and you can stay in your BBOZ's for a while longer yet.

Back to my project......







I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Rudy, I was on the sidelines watching firstly the 20 day SMA. It was moving down so that was OK. The 6 day slow stochastic had crossed the 9 from above the +85% level and the 8 day CCI had crossed over the 5 day from above. They were OK. The MACD histogram was neutral on the way down so that was OK.The 8/5 day MAs were moving around and the market action earlier in the week spooked me- I had orders placed but they were continually out of the money. The action on Friday encouraged me to place an order over the weekend which was filled early so I was down on the day.

Win some - lose some.

If my reading is correct your crucial support at 4800 will be taken out substantially, but there would then be a rally to test above it, only to fail. That could possibly bring the 4500 level into play.

All speculation but it keeps the grey matter moving.


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rdumas
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Hi Hailoh,

I agree with you that the 4803 MTD10 level is looking in jeopardy. If it does get taken out then the MTD11 will have had an aberration and come 10 days early which is very unusual (and very bearish). MTD12 is due to terminate between Feb 27 and March 1.

If we have already terminated MTD11 we should get another impulse leg down at least as long as the one between Jan 4 to Jan 11 . It lasted 11 trading days and went down 570.5 points or 9.9% using the top as the base figure.

Again if we truly are in the next part of the bear market then the last impulse was only a wave 1 and we would now be in a wave 3 which commonly goes 161.8% of wave 1's range. Thats why I say we would move down a minimum of the same range as the first impulse down.

We should not get too far ahead of ourselves though. The first step is that Jan 18 low needs to be taken out.










I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Rudy, if you look at the GOLD chart you posted recently, there appears to be a time difference of about 10 to 12 weeks between the GOLD lows shown before, and the subsequent sharp GOLD peaks. Currently the time difference is 10 weeks.

Should the previous patterns be a guide, GOLD could spend another week or so hovering around it's current level, possible have a last gasp jump and then react down. When this has happened previously the XJO has either risen or been rising.

All this is breezy speculation of course.

Based on the indicators I showed previously I have placed a limit order for GEAR on Monday.

I folded the BBOZ on Friday afternoon- a bit early to get full advantage of the closing figure but OK nevertheless.


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rdumas
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Hi Hailoh,

I appreciate your heads up on the BBOZ exit.

Re gold.ax

Could you edit the chart below to show where you are getting your 10 - 12 week cycles. The chart is a weekly chart (using calendar days).

Could you edit the chart below to show which 10-12 cycles you are seeing.

To me the cycles appear to be too random to use but I may be missing something.









I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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Where to now for the XJO

With the weekly and monthly Idiot signals remaining in SELL mode I still see no change in the general trend for our market at this stage. Hence I have to treat any rallies as counter rallies to a bear trend.

The following are two hourly charts. The first shows 1 month of price action and the other shows 240 hours. I have shown the first one to show the Fibonacci extension levels that came off the initial leg down from the recent top at 5384.8. I have shown the second chart to provide greater clarity of the recent price action.

Note that the 38.2% Fib level is at 4867. Currently the futures contract has our market opening at 4853 on Monday. That opening will certainly have the price action heading both for the Fib level and the descending red trend line shown on the chart.

If we have a Zigzag corrective move with equal first and third (A & C) waves then we will get a pattern such as I have shown on the chart. This would be in keeping with a continuance of the move south to below the current low.

Should it break through the red trend line and go above the recent low at 4876.8 then we have some other pattern in play and will probably see the market heading towards the 5000 level and start thinking that possibly we may be seeing the beginnings of a short term change in trend.









I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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Caldaro's EW Count for SPX

For the handful of people who are interested in Elliot Wave.

I have always had a lot of time for Tony Caldaro's EW counts for the SPX. Unlike Prechter who has been calling the market crash for many years now, Caldaro is one of the few Elliot Wave analysts who remained with a positive EW count and only called the end of the 2009 to 2015 bull market when it had what is known as a 'failed 5th wave' for cycle wave [1].

As EW analysts know, bull markets are basically a 5 wave impulse pattern. In a failed 5th wave, the 5th wave actually terminates below the peak of wave 3. So that even though the impulse pattern completes at the 5th wave peak, the 5th wave peak is actually lower than the 3rd wave peak. Traders and investors alike would say that the bull market peaked at the end of wave 3.

He now suggests a bear market for one to two years where the market loses between 45% to 50% of its value is underway.

His EW count for the SPX for the most recent market action is shown below in an hourly chart.

Now we should see this bear market as a corrective pattern in the context of a much longer term bull market. Corrective patterns general form into either a 3 wave (ABC) or 5 wave (ABCDE) pattern. The initial assumption will always be that the most likely pattern will be a 3 wave pattern. Either way the first leg of the pattern is an A wave. In a Zigzag pattern the A leg is a 5 wave impulsive pattern.

Now it must be remembered that an impulse pattern is a 5 wave pattern. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are impulse waves and waves 2 and 3 are corrective patterns. Sometimes one or more of the impulse waves extend. What this means is that the lower level waves forming that impulse leg become visible. The result of these lower level waves becoming visible is that, depending on the number of extensions, an impulse wave can have 5, 9 or 13 waves.

I mention the extensions because what Caldaro is saying on the chart below is that red wave 'v' has now made the minimum requirement of an impulse wave in that it is a 5 wave pattern. If red wave 'v' is complete then it also completes the higher level wave A shown on the chart. If wave A is complete the we should now start forming wave B which is a rallying leg that would normally retrace 50-61.8% of the range of wave A.

BUT......., if wave red 'v' extends, then there will be further downward movement.

Now having pleaded Caldaro's EW count above, I now wish to make my own comments about his EW count.

First of all, his red waves i and v are not legally impulse waves because their wave 4th sub waves intrude into the price range of their 1st sub wave. It is possible that his red wave i is a leading diagonal and the red wave v is an ending diagonal. That would be legal. It could be just a minor point or it could invalidate his count.

I only throw that into the post because if he is right, the XJO (which even though the XJO and SPX do not have identical patterns, the XJO would tend to follow the direction of the SPX) would also start to rally which would last for more than a couple of days. This would mean that the LTD point that I am expecting to terminate at the end of February or March 1 would have terminated a couple of weeks early.








I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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Updated Delta Charts and a GOLD LTD Chart

For readers interested in Delta charts, below are the updated MTD and LTD charts for the XJO. I have also included a brand new LTD chart for GOLD.AX. Perhaps you may be able to see the interplay of the XJO and GOLD.AX LTD charts.








There does not appear to be a direct or inverse correlation between the GOLD and XJO however I am assuming that GOLD LTD point 1 will terminate when XJO LTD point 1 terminates.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Rudy I started with a weekly chart of GOLD and also GDX to see whether there had in fact been a turning point in gold - a new beginning. Not so.

There did appear to be some repetition of the interval between the low immediately before a spike and the termination of the spike itself. I traced this through to the daily and that chart is posted.

GOLD

The pattern was sufficiently strong to encourage me to place a GEAR order.

You will see that the indicators are essentially slightly tweaked RASH and I have found them useful though timing isn't always easy. One thing I have noticed is the number of times an inflection in XJO takes place on Mondays. That usually means there has , for some reason or another, been a change in attitude in European and US markets on the Friday after we are closed. Hence my move Friday afternoon after I saw the early futures had turned green.


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hailoh
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I should add quickly Rudy that I expect to be changing GEAR very quickly - maybe a few days only,


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rdumas
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Hi Hailoh,

By the look of it I believe that on my chart your lines correspond to what I marked as a 12 week cycle and the later one was a 13 week cycle. The problem with the 12 week cycle example is that there were a series of lows close by and the lowest low in the cluster was 17 weeks. It may be close enough and you will probably be close the mark.

The rally that we have seen recently has formed a 5 wave impulse and theoretically the up move should complete in this leg. With gold it is difficult to see where because traditionally the fifth leg can be a real blow off leg.

Your dumping of your BBOZ positions was good timing because we are obviously going to get a good leg up on Monday. I agree that the first thrust will last one or two days depending on when it reaches my targets.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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The $DXY chart is interesting too, Rudy. The weekly is rising and the daily (shown) is at an inflection point.

DXY

How it goes from here is anyone's guess, but all it needs is some guru scratching their nose with a left finger instead of a right and there would be more expert opinion driving the markets than interpretations from a blender full of chicken gizzard.

Whatever, a quick rise in the dollar could well coincide with a sharp fall in gold.


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rdumas
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Hi Hailoh,

You may have a point there. Looking at the hourly chart showing the last 6 months of price action it does look like the DXY is looking for at least a temporary bottom the way its scrunching up near the 61.8% Fib level.







Zooming into the last 120 hours shows how it has back tested the upper boundary of that contracting channel.







I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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Intraday XJO Update

Yesterday I posted an hourly chart of the XJO showing the potential Zigzag that could possibly form in the near future.

At the time of this posting, the price action is following the yellow line that I drew yesterday. Whilst I am in BEARs at the moment I did take out a hedge with STW this morning which I will exit when I believe the short term rally (hopefully) ends.

As can be clearly seen, the BBs are narrowing so a big move is due at any time.






I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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The attached USD/Yuan chart shows all the signs of an early stage two entry, and with the dogs barking yuan devaluation during 2016 it could make an interesting trade.

USD/Yuan

The broker I use doesn't handle the counter - does yours?


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rdumas
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Hi Hailoh,

Sorry mate, I don't even know what that means. Other than USD.AX I have never traded currencies.

Certainly looking at the 12 month daily chart every time the RSI has dipped into oversold condition there has been a bounce so you may well have a good point.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update

It certainly looks like the XJO has made it through the first major hurdles. It really peeves me that I was out most of the afternoon so missed out on getting into STW. I was in earlier in the day but when it shied away from the descending red trend line I out for a small profit.

It really doesn't pay to go shopping with the wife and take your eyes off the market for a few hours.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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SPX Update

The hourly chart below showing the last month's price action has the MACD suggesting that we have be close to a short term top.

Looking at the Fib levels and the recent support I would suggest a drop down to around the 1880 level is likely. No doubt our XJO will tend to follow it down.





The XJO futures suggests that we may get an open near the 4949 level this morning which puts it near the 38.2% Fib level. I would think that this could possibly be our short term top as well.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update Before the Close


Below is an hourly chart showing the last 240 hours of price action. From an Elliot Wave perspective, the nature of wave down from that 50% Fib level indicates that we have more downside to come.

Today's price action has formed what appears to be a 5 wave impulse pattern. Now it could be a wave A of an ABC corrective wave however at this stage it could also be wave 1 of a much larger impulse wave down.

That orange horizontal line will possibly cause a bit of bounce to form either a wave B or a wave 2 and then the next wave down could be a larger one than today's down leg.







I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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Early Morning XJO Update


The 5 wave impulse pattern discussed yesterday was not quite finished so the price action actually broke down through the lower orange line and bounced off the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

Now the price action at the time of writing this post has been down to 4838.3 (chart has not updated to show that latest move yet) which is lower than yesterday's low.

Now we don't know yet whether the second wave has completed yet as it is a corrective wave. The can be quite complex and can chew up a lot of time forming a number of overlapping waves.

Once it has completed though, the next leg of significance should be heading south. It remains to be seen if it is wave C of and ABC down or wave 3 of an impulse wave down. The third wave of an impulse leg down would normally be at least 168.1% of the range of the first wave down. For the time being I have drawn in a range for the third wave which is equal to that of the first wave.







I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Conti Cycles

It has been a long time since I have discussed Conti Cycles. These are short term cycles that appear in the price action of stocks and indices from time to time which repeat. They are quite vaporous and disappear as quickly as they appear but they can sometimes be useful in determining when a cycle may end.

The chart below is a daily chart of the XJO. We can see that we have recently there was a 21 day cycle in operation for 3 cycles. This cycle ended with a 19 day cycle. A 16 day cycle has suddenly appeared for 2 cycles. If the cycle repeats for one more 16 day cycle then we should have a low on the day nominated on the chart.

This would give us some indication as to when the down move completes for one of the legs.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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qed
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Evening All, Im thinking A200 has a way to go if the inverse H/S pattern dosent bounce off the monthly trend line cheers Q


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rdumas
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SPX Update

The chart below is a daily chart of the SPX showing the Fibonacci levels for the range from the recent market top to the bottom of the decline. The moving averages displayed are the 100 and 150SMAs.

The 61.8% Fibonacci level was always going to be a possible short term top as it coincided with the previous lows of the recent price action. Whether it turns out to be a significant top remains to be seen as the TMF indicator continues to climb up that rising yellow trend line.









I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update before COB

On the ODB thread on Monday I provided a daily chart of the XJO showing the last 5 years of price action and pointed out the descending red trend line that had kept the bear market in play as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci level which looked like a good overhead resistance.

Below shows the last 12 months of the same chart. I have also left the 100 and 150 SMA on the chart as well.

As expected, the price action shied away from the resistances I had pointed out. We can see that the XJO is once again testing these overhead resistance levels. Note that the price action is currently using the 150 SMA as a support for this new test.

Now whilst I am a medium term bear at the moment, I am keeping a close eye on the current price action because should the XJO break through the descending red trend line and the 38.2% Fib level the bulls will have accomplished a significant feat and I will have to adopt a short term bullish stance. The reason for this is that the XJO would be forming an impulse wave should it break above those levels.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update before COB


I would like to retract a comment made in the last post re my view of the index should the levels discussed yesterday were taken out. Yesterday I said that I would become short term bullish if it did break through both the declining red trend line and the 32.8% Fib level. Today it did exactly that.

Now it did exactly that but not by much. So it has made an impulse wave but at this stage with a failed 5th wave. It is common in an impulse wave for the 3rd wave of the impulse pattern to be around 168.1% of the range of the first wave. As I say, the 5th wave under construction may not yet have completed however if it has then the 3rd wave would be only fractionally larger in range than the first wave. This is more in keeping with a corrective pattern known as a Zigzag.

Below is an hourly chart of the XJO showing the last 360 hours of price action. At the time of this posting the 5th wave has still not reached the high of the 3rd wave. Should this remain to be the case it would indicate a failed 5th wave of an impulse pattern.

It is quite likely that the 5th wave will not go much higher because when the 3rd wave is a long longer than a first wave, the 5th wave will often be of similar range to the first wave. That is the case at the present moment.

The next couple of days should confirm or invalidate my current thinking because if I am correct and it is a Zigzag pattern then the next move of significance will be down.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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There was an interesting piece in the Fin Review yesterday about the percentage of days this year when the XAO moved up or down by 1% or more - at 24% up days that is similar to the 27% in 2008, while the 25% down days 1% or more is trending towards the 35% in 2008.

I look at the attached chart of the S&P 500 weekly and it really seems to be defying gravity. Jesse Livermore would be right at home in a market like this.

S&P 500 weekly


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rdumas
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Hi Hailoh,

With the Stochastic rolling over in the overbought section and what to the eye looks like a double top in price, it is hard to see it continuing to defy gravity for too much longer.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Hi Rudy, I have switched over to this channel- heavy duty economic analysis elsewhere. The chart below incorporates the Randall approach and hindsight shows very nice correlations with swings in market sentiment. True, at present the indicators favour the bull but, and this is where "but" gets you into trouble, I just can't see the exuberance in the US markets lasting as analyses of the likely Trump journey come in.

If I'm wrong then my draw down limit is in for a pasting.

XAO indicators


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hailoh
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Hi Rudy,

A stock advisory service I subscribe to which exclusively uses exhaustive financial analysis reported last week on a current investigation into whether TA could enhance their results. They found that short term TA could not deliver consistent or effective benefit. They did find that longer interval TA, weekly and monthly, did identify trends that, if followed, would allow them to trade out of significant losing positions before things got too bad.

They were looking at moving average crossovers.

This is quite encouraging because the service has a high profile and they pride themselves on their professionalism. The question to ask, of course, is why it has taken so long to move down the TA channel.

I tend to jump the gun and pay the price when the market moves away, but as you say, from small beginnings the main index has started to show the weakness we've been looking for.


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rdumas
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Hi hailoh,

Interesting that you used this thread to post on.

I have to admit that I generally would not use the advice of people who use fundamental analysis on the merits of technical analysis.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Just an observation for myself, Rudy.

I'm not a frequent trader and I am reasonably confident that I can come out ahead using weekly and monthly charts. I do get into trouble chasing daily leads. Horses for courses I guess.


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rdumas
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It does make a lot of sense hailoh. Trading too often only makes the Commsec folks richer with all the commissions paid.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Right on cue, Rudy, BAL, a highly promoted fundamental stock, fell over the waterfall today. On the Randall based weekly indicators I have shown, it was in sell mode since August.

As I said, the fundamentalists have taken a long time to incorporate TA into their analysis but from the tone of today's mea culpa, the penny has dropped.


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hailoh
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Like father, like son??

XAO weekly

The boxes are a bit wonky - Friday afternoon after a hot day in the paddock affects the software too!!


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hailoh
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I have found that a break below the TMF at about 8% is a pretty reliable indicator of a decline during the following few days. Enough for me to short XAO at present.

XAO daily


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rdumas
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Hi hailoh,

There are some times when it didn't go down very far after the 8% TMF value was broken so I am not sure how reliable that is my friend.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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gdd3
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Interesting, Hailoh ... Well, enough for me to 'investigate' just back to last year's highs(about 22mths).

Surprise, surprise .... sort of some merits WITH some modifications(i.e. observations on my part). Make the "trigger-Line" at +8% line as suggest but also with the proviso that a previous swing high TMF peak has to come from above +15% AND/OR from a TL resistance and don't act on the subsequent initial fall thru the TMF +8% level BUT wait for the TMF to rally back above the +8%(can only be ever so slightly)and then breaks back below the TMF +8% level the 2nd TIME ... then you're on!?

If that is too much waffling on to understand hopefully the chart attached will help clarify. Vertical yellow lines = 2nd break after swing TL peak hit; green arrow is 1st break of TMF +8% level after TL peak hit. Grey vertical example may have been a questionable 'trigger' but good one none the less.

2_year Chart ...




Close_Up Chart ... Shows that it looks like we are to get such a 'trigger' BUT also with Uptrend Line support just underneath however ... It'll be good if that goes as well.



Good luck with it, Hailoh

Dolphin

P.S. Just realised that you were using the XAO as you example and I have used the XJO ... could be some minor differences in triggers.

(Message edited by gdd3 on December 14, 2016)


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hailoh
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Rudy et al, is there a protocol for examining Fibonacci ratios on charts?

XJO daily

Using the time frame between October 14 low and the April 15 high, the 38.2% level pretty much captures this week's high. On this basis a draw down to the 61.2% level would complete at about 5480 while there quite suggestive support/resistance at the 100% level around 5170.


XAO daily 2

Using the longer interval between October 2011 and April 2015, this week's high is in no-man's land, whereas a draw down to the 38.2% level at about 5200 has strong support/resistance.

Does a suggestive support level for a downturn at 5200 hold water?

The time frame between this week's high and the low at
February 2016 yields the result shown below which suggests that the 50% level near 5200 again has some valid support.

XAO daily

I started this quest trying to find a valid time frame that would capture this week's high and then to seek options for defining a draw down.

With my consummate charting knowledge, of course, having posted this discourse, the XAO could very well turn stratospheric.


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hailoh
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Rudy et al, is there a protocol for examining Fibonacci ratios on charts?

XJO daily

Using the time frame between October 14 low and the April 15 high, the 38.2% level pretty much captures this week's high. On this basis a draw down to the 61.2% level would complete at about 5480 while there quite suggestive support/resistance at the 100% level around 5170.


XAO daily 2

Using the longer interval between October 2011 and April 2015, this week's high is in no-man's land, whereas a draw down to the 38.2% level at about 5200 has strong support/resistance.

Does a suggestive support level for a downturn at 5200 hold water?

The time frame between this week's high and the low at
February 2016 yields the result shown below which suggests that the 50% level near 5200 again has some valid support.

XAO daily

I started this quest trying to find a valid time frame that would capture this week's high and then to seek options for defining a draw down.

With my consummate charting knowledge, of course, having posted this discourse, the XAO could very well turn stratospheric.







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rdumas
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Hi hailoh,

I have read a few books about the use of Fibonacci but none better that the one written by Carolyn Boroden called Fibonacci Trading. Carolyn is well known as the Fibonacci Queen. You might like to check out the FibonacciQueen.com site. She uses Fibonacci to trade both time and price.

Gann apparently talked a lot about repeating ranges. I am a great believer in this concept and extend it to repeating ranges and Fibonacci ratio's of those ranges.

Repeating ranges obviously are the reason for channels and other well known TA patterns. In my opinion your comments about 5200 are well founded. Naturally enough whilst it is and obvious level of support, we never know if that is the target level of any short term leg which is why I tend to not get too far ahead of myself and look and one leg at a time.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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