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Author Message

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ody
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Username: ody

Post Number: 6947
Registered: 10-2006

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Monday, December 12, 2016 - 10:29 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting, Rudy!


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016 - 06:14 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



How about this?

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/34018







I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Username: rdumas

Post Number: 6038
Registered: 11-2006

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Tuesday, December 13, 2016 - 07:40 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

As you know I have spent a number of years getting into the guts of Elliott Wave analysis and was very keen about its usefulness in predicting future events. Robert Prechter from Elliott Wave International has been predicting a major top and a multiyear crash from about 2012 (my memory is beginning to fail me these days but it was certainly years ago). Anthony Caldaro, one of the most respected EW analysts on the net until earlier this year had been predicting an imminent major top to be followed by a multi year bear market . He has had a complete turn around and now has the market in a strong bull market.

I have been a bear for years now because I just could not see how globally governments could keep spending money that they didn't have ad infinitum. That just doesn't line up with every thing that I have ever been taught about managing a household budget. My bearishness has undoubtedly cost me a lot of lost money making opportunities.

No doubt eventually what the dooms dayers have been predicting for years now will eventuate and they will say "see, I told you so". The fact that their subscribers have been led up the garden path for years before will not be recalled.

So when you say about the above article "How about this?" I say "take it with a grain of salt and just keep looking at one rally leg and correction at a time."


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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Post Number: 6040
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XJO Update

Below is an updated hourly chart of the XJO showing the last 2 months of price action. As I mentioned several posts previously I felt that our market was attempting another test of the previous high fractionally above the 5600 level. At time of writing this post it had already reached the lofty heights of 5595.7.

I have drawn some lines on the chart to show the similar rate of assent of this rally to that which occurred previously. Because I am a fan of symmetry I have extended the lines to show a butterfly pattern. Note that the latest bounce occurred off a rising blue trend line.

I still feel that I may be buying myself some BEAR stock in the very near future.




I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Username: hailoh

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Do nothing, Rudy, until I have posted unassailable evidence, supported by ironclad indicators, that the XJO is headed for 6000.

Then, short 'til the cows come home!!

The chart pattern is symmetry in motion isn't it? I posted another view of the same on the other channel- post 468.


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rdumas
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Post Number: 6041
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Hi hailoh,

I must admit that I had not understood what you were trying to say in that post. I can be pretty thick at times and this is another case in point. I did not understand the TEXT comments....


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Ah Rudy, I thought I was doing pretty well constructing a box around what I was looking at. The TEXT just came along for the ride.


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rdumas
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XJO hourly chart update

Right on time and close to price, the XJO topped and started moving down. I must admit though that the price action did not inspire me to go into BEARs as to me the set up still looks fairly bullish at present. There appears to be a number of levels not far below the current price where a bounce could occur. So for the time being I am keeping my powder dry.








If we look at the longer term (see 3 year daily chart below) we can see that the move up from the low near 4700 has been very much of an overlapping pattern. That is more normal for a corrective pattern than an impulsive pattern so in spite of the TMF being in a holding pattern in the buy zone, the double top and overlapping pattern does give me some negative medium to longer term messages.







I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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bridog
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SLR

Extraordinary trading after the close! Trading occurred all day between 51 and 52 cents until massive trading after close amounting to over 80% of all trades at 53.5c!

It's also 13% of issued shares so we should find out on Monday what's going on . .


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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ody
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Quite a fall at the end ...

Rudy, I am sure you were righ to exit when you did. To get the fall really "right", in one's prediction, would to my mind have been harder, and even now we don't know whether it will persist, though the end of the day looked pretty miserable. It *could* just be that people are beginning to think of the possibility that shares had gone too high, and that for the time being the Trump rally is quieting down. I don't as yet see a really considerable fall, though: we'd need probably a stronger trigger for that than just a small rise in US interest rates. Shares are, of course, in many instances much too expensive, and one would think that some kind of "reckoning" will inevitably come. The problem of locating that moment is that much of the presumably positive growth initiatives are still to be introduced or make themselves felt. So the case for real pessimism leading to a major sell-off doesn't yet seem to be in place.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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gdd3
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Hi Bridog ... Monthly and 1/4ly option/futures etc. expiry day. SLR not alone; RMS similar BUT many Goldies had 50 - 60% of their day's trading volume go thru in the P.M. auction period. Some at or near their pre-auction price others, like SLR, jumped/fall a few % in the auction period(probably near/at Option strike prices.

Goldies weren't alone ... CBA for example... was trading at its low for the day $80.23 but closed at $81.06(on 40% of day's vol.

Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. PRU was the huge Goldie loser for the day; down 35% with > 150mil shares changing hands(20% of issued shares).... all as a result of -ve news late yesterday.


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ody
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Thanks Dolphin!


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

Not sure what you mean by your comment "Quite a fall at the end...."

The XJO closed 5.7 points lower than yesterday's close.

The chart below is an updated chart of the hourly showing the last 2 months of price action. As I mentioned in my earlier post, there were too many potential bounce levels below this morning's price action to get very bearish and as you can see from the updated chart, the index bounced off that 76.4% Fib level.

What is different now though is that the TMF has fallen through the rising blue trend line and is under selling pressure. This however is very short term as the daily chart shows the daily TMF in buy territory. See comments above the daily chart showing 2 years price action.







The 2 year daily chart below shows the TMF in buy territory above the rising blue trend line and the price action has very strong support at the 61.8% Fib level near the 5500. I think it would be a mistake at this stage to be too bearish.






I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Your reasoning is good, Rudy. There still is good buying support overall, as the TMF shows. Still, the Trump rally started at quite a low level in November, and I think it is now beginning to show signs of "ageing". On Wednesday, it reached a high of 5595, and closed at a still respectable 5584. The saving grace yesterday (Friday) was - "only", I would say - that after falling as low as 5510 before the end, it crawled back to 5532. On a Friday, the slight up-tick at the end may well prove a good sign, but overall the last three days (within the overall pattern of the rally) make me feel that perhaps the Wednesday high of 5595 will not necessarily easily and quickly be reached again, leave alone easily taken out. The number of trading days left before the end of the year is not big any more, and it is conceivable that a number of the players will be calling it a day.

On the other hand, it is also possible that the bulls will be determined to take the market to a considerable high before the end of the year, particularly to provide "a good look". I am not suggesting that you should already resort to your BEAR - that would be exaggerated, I believe. However, if I were myself "playing" the market short term I would no longer be buying. Indeed, I would not be a long-term buyer either: the opportunity for getting set at a more attractive level was weeks back, and currently the shares that I think would in principle appeal to me are to my mind highly priced, with few exceptions. Others have proved highly treacherous and fallen significantly.

If I were to think of re-entry, I would hope for a fall, and for various reasons I think it is not unlikely that there will be one, particularly after so strong a rally which has little more than Trump-generated optimism behind it. I do think, admittedly, that Trump HAS changed the climate and provided a new outlook, but there are still considerable difficulties and many uncertainties, so I think that at this stage we are in a rally rather than in the process of establishing a bull market that will rapidly take us beyond 5595 and last. If I am wrong, and if that level is taken out firmly and ongoingly, we are, I would think, talking about a new world. Not, however, a very safe one to have to buy into, I feel. I think that at some stage (perhaps even now) the market will want to pause at the very least, and most likely pull back to consider ...

Longer term, and prospectively speaking, I am not altogether pessimistic. I would hope for some kind of "clean out" (not just in the share market), and that Trump's pro-business and pro-American outlook actually materialises into action. We would then be well rid of the stagnancy caused by the idiotic, dogmatic attachment to virtually zero interest rates and quantitative easing. And it is absolutely essential that these twin evils be banished. It is much better to have real recessions than to prevent them from occurring. I shudder to think where we might have been if under Clinton the policies which had come to be accepted as "the new normal" had been continued.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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hailoh
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What happens on the Australian markets near term will largely be determined by what unfolds in the US.

DJI daily

The TMF plot since Trump lit a spark has shown a somewhat exaggerated response to small daily losses on what otherwise is a flagpole rise. The reaction in the past few days could simply be the same maths at work.

I am watching it to see whether I am really out on a BBOZ limb, or whether the the market bids no trumps this hand.


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hailoh
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On the same theme, the $SPX shows a more familiar relationship between the chart and 21 day TMF.

SPI daily

The entry - re-entry to the 8% level gives me a little more bear confidence.


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ody
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The XJO at present looks to me implausibly high, in direction, when compared with the S&P500. The Americans are likely enough taking a break from the Trump rally, while Australia seems to be swept into unjustified optimism, as our economy is so much weaker and more vulnerable.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

Below is a daily chart showing the last 30 months of price action.

Note that this 76.4% Fib level has been a strong overhead resistance level on many occasions in the past. I suspect that it may be so again.

Also note that the TMF is approaching and important overhead declining red trend line which historically has been a strong overhead resistance.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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dydavo
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Indeed, and the increase in the 20 day ema of closing price has gone up over the last two weeks without any move up in the 20 day ema of Force Index. Ignoring that divergence in the past has usually resulted in unhappiness.
Have sold all big cap positions this morning. Let's see what happens next. Could just be Xmas small volumes, but happy to wait for the next new buy signal in whatever comes along (or not).






David
Momentum trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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ody
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TRUMP RALLY APPEARS TO BE ENDING

It had to happen some time ... shares had gone up far too much too quickly, and they, along with the USD, are now "correcting" downwards. There had been speculation that people might sell "on the fact" once Trump started governing officially, but a number of sellers obviously has decided they might suffer if they waited until then, and Trump's press conference did nothing to help those hoping for reasons to keep the jolly party going. So there is a good chance that quite a bit of ground will be lost BEFORE the "fact" of the new president's first day in office.

I should think there may well be quite a bit sold off, but it is not impossible that if that happens some shares will become more attractive to buy, if we persuade ourselves that growth will be "on its way". So far, the buying has been *in the anticipation* of growth rather than based on it occurring: people have simply equated "Trump" and "growth" mentally. Admittedly there have been some good figures from the US, but it would be difficult to tie them firmly to Trump, per se. So it is important to keep a cool head. A number of enthusiastic buyers who have gone "full bore" may well lose some money, at least in the short run.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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Perhaps it will take a bit longer for people to make up their minds firmly about taking prices down after so strong a rally, but our own market, at any rate, is surely beginning to express some doubt about its continuation. The following may also be useful. From Angela Mangan at QMG Pty Ltd:

The ASX200 index previously generated a technical buy signal at 5543 on 8/12/16 and reached the nominated upside technical target located at 5725 on 3/1/17 (referred to in recent wire (VIEW LINK). At current levels the index is a technical hold. However, as a result of the rally the index is approaching the same overbought levels on a RSI / momentum basis that occurred in early 2015 and late 2013, which is reason for caution relating to the sustainability of the rally. The RSI is not a turning point indicator - it flags overbought situations, but does signal when an overbought situation will correct. A technical top formation is the requirement for a technical sell signal to be triggered and there is currently no sign of this emerging. However, as a result of the rally a significant number of stocks have progressively reached previous buy signal targets, notably the major banks, which are now rated as technical holds rather than buys. The resource sector of the market is being watched very closely potentially for a negative technical turning point.
--
Personally I think we need a sell-off before committing ourselves firmly to what looks like a somewhat overbought ASX 200. The rise simply looks too big at present, particuarly as so little is as yet known about profits and growth in our companies.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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United States strengthening

From Bloomberg:

US companies have added more new jobs than had been expected.

Also, as far as company results are concerned: of the S&P 500 names to report so far, 73 percent have topped profit estimates.

Comment: these seem to me significant figures. I had been inclined to think that the Trump rally was largely emotional, and it probably is. Even so, we must not too readily assume that that scenario cannot co-exist with some really good events within the US economy!


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update

Hi folks, its been a long time between drinks. I have sold up our house in Sydney and currently living in temporary accommodation in Victoria before finally moving into our house in Tasmania at the end of May.

Haven't had much time to look at the market but have just had a brief look this morning. The US market is acting like a run away train and our market is making an attempt at following. I don't feel convinced at this stage.

The chart below is a 2 year daily chart of the XJO. We can see that our market is in double top territory and the TMF is shying away from its overhead slowly descending red trend line. Whether it is a minor or major obstacle is yet to be seen as we are still in buy territory. The Fib level that the price action is bumping its head against is the 138.2% Fib extension of the previous leg up between (roughly) 5000 and 5600.

We are starting to hear rumbles about possible home load defaults should there be any interest rate increases and the banks are starting a squeeze on loans to property investors. I think we will hear a lot more about those two subjects in the coming weeks.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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colin_twiggs
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Hi Rudy,

Hope you enjoy Tassie. Is this a tree change?

Regards,
Colin


My views expressed on this forum do not consider your personal circumstances and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Colin,

Yes we are moving to Launceston. We finally got so sick of the traffic in Sydney and Melbourne we wanted to live somewhere that was about 20 years behind the rest of Australia. We just love all of the old buildings, the lack of traffic and the friendly people.

Our house is over 100 years old and Victorian architecture. It has been completely renovated on the inside whilst keeping the outside in the old style architecture. We have a delayed settlement date of the end of because the vendor or needed to close off her business interests in Launceston.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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colin_twiggs
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Rudy,
It sounds great. Hope you and your family will be happy there.

Send us a picture.

Regards, Colin


My views expressed on this forum do not consider your personal circumstances and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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Rudy,

Sounds like an attractive change to me. Adelaide, too, is now becoming more popular with some people living in Sydney or Melbourne, for reasons not dissimilar to the ones you mention for Launceston, though of course Adelaide is different in being considerably bigger: it offers (if viewed positively) SOME of the big town advantages (e.g. several good hospitals, but also a lot of cultural activity on various scales), but it is far less congested, far more people know each other, it is still "gracious" with lots of trees, etc. But, of course, for some of the "big town" people it remains a bit quiet and provincial. I liked the looks of Launceston, which offers some similar things to Adelaide on a smaller scale, but another advantage for you is that you remain closer to Sydney, and indeed Melbourne. And, also, Tasmania is a fascinating state to explore. So it all sounds pretty good to me. Certainly you are Launceston's gain ... Interesting to see how many people from Sydney have been boosting prices for houses in Hobart recently.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Colin,

Not sure if this link will work.


http://https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-tas-east+launceston-12419616 6


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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

We love the way that many places in Tassie (and particularly in East Launceston) there are many places that were built over 100 years ago and people have saved them. In NSW they tear them down and put up high rise.

We look forward to discovering the many treasures that undoubtedly exist in Tassie. By the way we are walking distance away from several hospitals.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Your choice sounds great, Rudy! The same factors would weigh heavily as advantages with us (and indeed Adelaide provides us with what we want). Old houses, yes, not the kind of barbarous buildings we tend to see these days; many things of interest in the place itself and the state; hospitals nearby, etc. Good quality of life, I am sure. During the last few years - especially the VERY recent past - there has been a sudden impulse for this kind of change in Sydney and Melbourne. Our son has his work in Melbourne, which is fine, and he is flourishing: but he has now got himself a small place in Adelaide to come over 4 times a year with his family, and is clearly pleased to "escape" from Melburnian pressures on such occasions.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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colin_twiggs
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Magnificent, Rudy
Even a white picket fence.
I love Federation-style architecture.


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ody
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I second Colin's opinion, Rudy. At a first try I didn't see the image! But yes, the place looks great. Who knows, since we love Tasmania as a place to visit (more interest per square mile than almost anywhere else in Australia!), we might well look you up some time. Our memories of our visit to Tassie in 2012 are very positive (avoiding the big bushfire, too ...).


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Thanks for your positive comments Colin and Ody. Much appreciated.


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ody
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Bapcor result and possible future

Some may remember my positive opinion of Bapcor from last year (even though I sold all my shares on 8 January). I still follow the share market with interest, but am largely not invested in it, though I hold e.g. WAM with confidence.

For those potentially interested I here post what the Motley Fool Australia had to say about Bapcor's recent result:

Automotive parts juggernaut Bapcor (ASX:BAP) this morning reported another set of solid results.

Revenue was up 34% to $435 million, and profits, adjusted for the Hellaby transaction, were up 44% to $28 million. Earnings per share (EPS) was up 33% to 10.6 cents, growing slower than operating profits because of the recent capital raising. The company increased dividends by 10% to 5.5 cents, fully-franked and has initiated a dividend reinvestment plan.

Bapcor’s core Trade segment was firing on all cylinders, with sales up 14% and operating profits (EBITDA) up 32% reflecting the higher sales, improved gross margin and lower cost of doing business. Same store sales growth was above 5% and 11 stores were added in the half year. The company noted that a:

“… number of new stores are in the pipeline as the Trade business continues its strong march towards a target of 200 stores. All regions in Trade contributed to the profit growth except for Western Australia which has grown a good sales base but continues to experience a high level of price competition.”

The Retail segment of the business — consisting of Autobarn, Autopro, Sprints Auto Parts, Midas and ABS — also delivered in spades. Sales and operating profits were both up a solid 43% to $118 million and $15 million, respectively. Bapcor Darryl Abotomey CEO commented:

“The integration of Sprints which was acquired in April 2016 has progressed well including the program to increase its sourcing from Bapcor Group’s specialist wholesale businesses. The strategy to increase the number of Autobarn stores is progressing well, having increased the number of company owned stores by 8 to 23 during the 6 month period. Autobarn’s same store sales growth was 2.8% with the second quarter being lower than the first quarter as the business experienced a high level of price discounting and promotions from competitors”

The company’s Wholesale segment added three acquisitions during the first half and also included results from Bearing Wholesalers which was purchased in March 2016. Revenue increased 125% to $97 million, and operating profit was up 145% to $11 million.

Bapcor acquired 90% of Hellaby Holdings shares in February, passing the compulsory takeover threshold. Bapcor expects to complete the acquisition of Hellaby in March.

Excluding Hellaby, the company expected net profit after tax for 2017 to be in the $57 — $59 million range. Hellaby is expected to add about $8 — $12 million to the profits in the second half, excluding transaction costs and other significant items.

We are pleased with Bapcor’s performance. The Hellaby acquisition is an opportunity for Bapcor to grow in the New Zealand market. At the same time, we believe there’s room for growth in the Australian market. The company remains a disciplined performer, with respect to price paid for acquisitions and cost control. It really is the epitome of disciplined execution. Bapcor remains a Buy.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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Domino's Pizza

For a long time I was a great supporter of the company - but last year I was beginning to worry at the huge growth, and also the very high price level, as I am sure I would have said more than once. Now, I think, the company is a definite sell for those who might still be hesitating. Once you get a situation in which franchisees do not properly handle money and treat employees you should not, as an investor, be part of it. The company now unfortunately has "a bad smell", and that is always difficult to live down. I would not be inclined to buy it, not even if the price went really very low, as one would need to be convinced that the current problems have been addressed and will not recur. A difficult thing for the company to achieve.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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visions
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Hi Rudy,

The house looks fantastic mate, nothing to do or spend by the looks of things.It's a lovely place Launceston, love the walk down the Gorge especially. You also have a great location Rudy, right in the middle between 2 hospitals and not far from the pool for rehab but I'm sure you won't need them. It might be snowing by May , good luck Rudy I do hope the move goes smoothly and you enjoy living in Tassie.

Cheers ... Visions


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ody
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NCK: Nick Scali

People here will probably remember my advocacy last year, and the company has continued to do well. I was a bit too drastic selling everything at the beginning of last year, although many of my stocks afterwards DID go down, in tune with my - generally justified - belief that 2016 would not be easy for me (and it would indeed not have been, given my preference for smallish companies and dislike of resources companies). From everything I have seen and read NCK, which I must confess I hold through WAM anyway, will continue to perform well. Its result was well ahead of anything announced, and so long as there are still people wanting to buy furniture for their newly acquired home, or a home they are improving, NCK is likely to remain a profitable supplier. It to my mind remains one of the most attractive shares on the market.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Thanks Visions,

I am looking forward to discovering all of the nooks and crannies in Tassie. According to what I have read on the internet, Launceston gets a lot of fogs but very little (if any) snow. It apparently has the most fog bound airport in Australia.

Cheers

Rudy


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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baysider
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Hi Rudy
Congrats on the move, my wife and I love to visit Tasmania. Hobart and no doubt Launceston have what we call 'proper' pubs, you can even get a very good drop of Guinness - as acknowledged by my wife's Irish Uncle who worked for Guinness for many years, his claim to fame was inventing the wedge they put in cans to get the draft flow creamy head.

Swopping Sydney for Tasi I can feel the large quantities of cash burning a hole in your pocket, a lobster dinner perchance? Alternatively you'll no doubt be looking to careful invest the proceeds and we'll all look forward to reading how you plan to do it!

Best of luck Rudy.


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baysider
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Sorry, auto correct - wedge should have read as widget.


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rdumas
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Hi Baysider,

Nice to hear from you again my friend.

I am not sure how much I will have left after we have finished doing what we want to do with the house. I will try to have enough to try out some more of those fantastic drinking places and there are a few of those.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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A note from Fat Prophets:

(I quote this because I agree that the P/E for US stocks is becoming stretched, and I think - personally - that too much of the upward move is based purely on optimism about Trump's policies, or rather on the expectation that he will succesfully be implementing policies that will increase growth. That may well to some extent be the case, but so far there is not much actually "to go on". Having said this, there are also some good signs in the US anyway, but I would think that the pricing probably has in many cases already absorbed the good news. So I think caution is necessary, though I am not expecting an immediate crash.)

From Fat Prophets: "US equity markets had marginal gains on Friday with the S&P 500 closing 0.17% higher at 2,351 and the Dow Jones edging up 0.02% at 20,624. The S&P 500 increased by 1.5% last week, driven by a rally in financials. Banking stocks rallied on hopes for lighter regulation and increases in interest rates. The rally in US markets over recent months has pushed up the forward P/E on the S&P 500 to 17.6 times. This is the highest level since 2004, according to Factset, and compares to a forward P/E of 16.9 times at the end of 2016. The US stock market is looking tired, and a correction would not be surprising as we draw closer to the 2nd quarter."


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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colin_twiggs
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Ody,

My graphs show the Forward P/E as falling, not rising, and well below the highest levels of recent years....

I will take another look this week.


My views expressed on this forum do not consider your personal circumstances and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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Hi Colin,

I am sure you are more up to date than either Fat Prophets or myself, who have been watching PEs going up with some alarm, but have probably been a little to slow in observing where they are more accurately now. If they are tapering off, I would regard that is good news, in that I'd rather see stocks going backward for a while then continuing to go up. I think there are several signs, I must admit, that the Trump rally is losing some of its impetus, which would reassure me, since so much that would need to justify it would still have to occur!


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update


We can see from the weekly chart of the XJO showing the last 10 years of price action that the GFC dropped our market down into March 2009 and then took 6 years to form a top at around the 76.4% Fib level. It then dropped down and is now in the process of trying to get to that higher level again.

It may or may not achieve that in the next few weeks. To me the TMF is indicating that the upward move is losing momentum so even if it did achieve that level I suspect that it would go no further.







The next chart is a daily showing the last 2 years of price action. The white Fib levels shown on the chart are an extension of the leg that topped out near the 5600 level. The 138.2% Fib level near the 5800 appears to have presented a significant overhead resistance to our market at this point in time.

The price action may be able to get to that level again however at this stage it appears to be trapped between the 5600 and 5800 levels. I suspect that we will see the 5600 level again in the not too distant future.





The hourly chart below showing the last 120 hours of price action is of interest in that the drop down from the top retraced 61.8% of its previous up leg. It then bounced to retrace 61.8% of that down leg before finding resistance. It then dropped to retrace 61.8% of that up leg.

Don't you find the 61.8% Fib level fascinating?

Now it may make another attempt to that last intermediate top but I suspect that there is a lot of overhead resistance at that level so once again our market appears to be a bit hamstrung.






I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Great chart, Rudy.

Colin, I agree with your analyssis of the US and Australian economies, and particularly your point that Australia urgently needs an infrastructure programme.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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WOMEN AND THE SHARE MARKET. WORTH READING!

From "The Bull". Originally published by The Conversation. Author: Peter Swan, Professor of Finance, UNSW. The article below confirms my own suspicion, and anecdotal evidence, that women are better investors (or at least traders) on the stock market than men. It is the first article I have seen on this subject which seems to provide full and convincing PROOF.

Why women make the best stock traders

By Expert Panel | 13.03.2017

Female traders can be far more selective, as they spend more time evaluating before making a trade and have a calmer approach in financial storms. Previous research shows women trade less than men, but does not reveal why. Our analysis shows this greater delay between trades is there for a good reason.

I worked with researchers Joakim Westerholm and Wei Lu to look at every trade women undertook in 28 major Finnish stocks usually most heavily traded by men. We chose Finland because it has by far the best data inclusive of gender and trader location. Although the population is small, we observe almost a million traders. The trades took place over a 17 year period, from 1995 to 2011.

Normally, when conducting research like this, one might identify a trade made by a male. If the price rises in the next day, week, or month, that trade is supposedly successful, even if he sold that stock two years later at one half the price he paid for it. Since his counterparty, the person who sold him the stock, is unknown, they could be either male or female. Using this kind of research it is impossible to say which gender is better.

But in our research we could track every one of the traders, and even identify where they lived or moved to. This is because Finland assigns a lifetime identity to every investor: institution and household (by gender within the household), such that every individual’s portfolio and every trade is fully identified on every day. We know that male traders took the other side of the trades we were studying.

*Knowing when to sell*

Ideally, traders try and sell when the price is high, even better when the price is unjustifiably high. But these opportunities do not arise every day and not all traders are equipped to detect them. For example, in Finland, females waited until 1998 to increase the rate at which they sold Nokia stock to men. Around that time, Nokia had not increased in price by 10%, or even 100%, but by 5,000% (yes, 50 times) due to pressure from US institutional investors.

Similarly, in 2007-08, when Nokia once again boomed following it’s collapse in 2002, the rate at which female investors sold to men increased again. Their pessimism was justified as this boom preceded the global financial crisis collapse.

Although male trading activity increasingly dominated female trading activity over the 17 years we studied, female trades were more successful. Female traders managed an annual internal rate of return of 43% on their Nokia holdings, and 21.4% across the 28 stocks. The males, meanwhile, had correspondingly high losses - negative returns of -43% and -21.4% on their completed trades.

*Why is there a difference?*

Our study shows female traders are far more “contrarian” than their male counterparts. They tend to buy stock following severe price falls and sell to males following substantial price increases. Females appear to lose money in the short-term (buying as prices fall, for instance), but gain in the longer-term following severe price reversals. Because of our ability to track trades over a long period, based on actual buy and sell trades, we can see that it is not valid to conclude from short-term price declines that females suffer losses. On average, females buy cheap and sell dear, indicating they are far more informed than males.

This apparent contrarian trading strategy has the added effect of stabilising markets. In fact, the very large collective profit of 19 billion Euros that Finns made by trading with foreign (largely US) funds over the period of our study is due to the destabilising trend-following behaviour of the foreign institutions.

These foreign institutions were easy pickings for both smart and informed Finns, whether they be households or domestic funds, indicating that traders are better off investing domestically in markets that they better understand and have an information advantage.

To confirm this, we pitted males located in the Greater Helsinki region - near lots of company headquarters, against males located in the rest of the country. We similarly pitted females against other females based on their location. This experiment showed that locals tend to profit. But this didn’t hold across genders. Female traders located in Greater Helsinki profited even from trades with males in the same region, while females in the rest of the country also profited from their male counterparts.

A striking feature of all our analysis is that Finnish households don’t behave in the manner that is depicted in standard finance texts. When they invest their own money they don’t diversify by holding a representation of the “market”. In fact, on average the number of shares in their portfolio is only 3.4. Contrary, also, to popular belief, households trade very little compared to institutional investors. Very small and focused portfolios ensures far better management of the timing of trades.

The results of our study show that females are far better traders than males when they use their own money. This could be because they are better at picking up nuances in markets than are males. Moreover, they are not carried away by the euphoria of rapidly rising prices, as Wall Street dominated by aggressive male investors, tends to be.

A female invasion of Wall Street might not only see far more stable markets, but also a far lower likelihood of the next global financial crisis.

(Message edited by ody on March 21, 2017)


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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THE RISING SKEW - potential indicator of trouble

I take this from an article published by Investsmart:

The VIX has been virtually flat for months, tracking well below its historic average, with traders content in the fact that the US market has continued to break new records following Trump’s election win.

Yet, those in the know are using a more obscure volatility indicator to measure the likelihood of a major market correction down the track. The CBOE Skew Index, which tracks options trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), is used as a pointer to so-called Black Swan events - difficult to predict situations that have the potential to trigger a market crash.

The Skew measures the difference between the cost of buying a put option on the S&P 500 Index to protect against a sharp downturn, and the cost of buying a call option to leverage into a market rally. When there is much more buying of put options, that means the smart money is banking on a market correction. And that is exactly what is happening at the moment.

Think of the Skew as a sort of crash protection index and, unlike the relatively stable VIX, it is going through the roof. Its normal trading range is around 100, but earlier this month it hit a record level above 150. So far this year it is up more than 20 per cent.

(The article goes on to suggest that on this basis a significant correction could occur within 1 - 2 months.)


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update

Hi Folks,

Its been a long time between drinks. I thought that I would throw in my thoughts on the near term future of our market for what its worth.

The chart below is a monthly chart showing the last 10 years of price action. On the chart I have shown the Fibonacci retracement template for the GFC period (blue) and the Fibonacci extension of the first rally leg from the GFC low.

Firstly I should say that Randall's daily, weekly and monthly Idiot signals are all still in buy mode (ie, rally phase). It certainly has been a good run. What we can also see is that the price action is reaching both the 76.4% Fib GFC retracement level at 5971 and the GFC low rally 50% extension at 5977.

We can see that this zone was unable to be breached other than intraday on the previous attempt by the market. Whilst not shown on this chart, the monthly TMF is in strong buying pressure territory so the overhead resistance could be temporary. It remains to be seen.


I suspect that this zone will be at least a temporary overhead resistance level.







I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Will the Australian share market surge ahead?

Thank you for that good post, Rudy. I agree with you that 6000 will probably not be easy to "take out", for our ASX 200. It has for long formed a very substantial psychological barrier, and if anything the chart shows at the moment a tendency to "fall away", particularly - I presume - as the recent attempt to reach 6000 failed. But there are also other important psychological and economic reasons. The resources sector is not as strong as it was a while ago. The banks remain a very uncertain territory, and not least as people are becoming more nervous about the housing boom. Also, our government does not inspire confidence, and indeed no government has done so with any consistency since Howard was voted out. Furthermore, we look for guidance at the US. There is no doubt in my mind - and I think it is considered an actual fact - that the the US economy is going well: far more so than our own. Yet the Trump inspired rally is now showing some hesitation, which is not surprising considering the height it has reached. It will, I think, be very hard for our own ASX 200 to break through 6000 if the S&P 500 does not continue firmly upwards. By this I mean that it is probably essential for the US market to continue to move upwards if we are to do so: I do not, on the other hand, imply that if the S&P 500 does continue to go up we shall automatically follow, as I believe the economic/financial dangers here - particularly in the area of housing debt - are much greater than in the US. Even if our housing market does not correct sharply downwards, worries will continue until people have reason to believe that this problem is "in hand".

None of this is to imply that the ASX 200 cannot and will not go beyond 6000, but it is to suggest that it will struggle to do so, and in particular that the pro-growth policies which are (at least theoretically) inspiring Americans will not necessarily translate into sufficient confidence here in Australia to continue to send our market upwards. I add that in many cases our strong growth shares have already been fully rewarded with higher prices, while our high-yielding shares cannot easily be pushed much higher given the difficulties they may confront. Our market has very few underpriced shares in it, from what I can see. Indeed, many stocks look expensive. And I do not believe that we should accept the view that equities should trade at much higher levels than they conventionally have done simply by way of a supposedly "new normal".

There certainly are, both in the US (indeed, there particularly!!) and here in OZ, companies that are doing very well, and that do deserve strong support. But I doubt that there are many that are not already getting it - indeed often "in spades".

Even so, the potential growth scenario does, I believe, remain very strong. We can very clearly see how "disruption" is working very impressively for a number of companies, and I do think we are witnessing a period during which large fortunes are being made and will continue to be made. The difficulty for the "ordinary" investor, during a transitional period like this, is to pick the right companies, which has become much harder than it was, say, five or even three years ago. Personally I believe that anyone in the market who is not a "specialiser" should probably not rely only on her or his own insight but seriously consider looking for good investors worth supporting. There certainly are some such.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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hailoh
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I have posted a daily chart of the XAO covering the past 30 months where we are approaching a long term double top.

The point that interests me is that in 2015, and there are other current instances for other indices, a decline in TMF peaks while index peaks are reaching the same level has foreshadowed a subsequent fall in the index.

XAO Daily

I have taken a position in BBOZ where I'll be patient and see whether the pattern resolves again as a substantial fall.


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ody
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Hailoh: a remarkably insightful and persuasive post! Thank you.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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baysider
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HI Ody

I agree with you that US stocks seem much more inclined to increase in value compared to the Australian market. I wonder if you're inclined to put your considerable research skills to the test and find some US stocks to select from for your families investments? I confess to having around 60% of my funds now in either US stocks or US$ based ETF. Given how many of the top tech stocks are trading at all time highs it has not required me to be an investing genius to have made some considerable gains particularly in the last 6 months since Trump's arrival. Banks as well have done incredibly well under Trump factoring in tax reductions. Only CSL of my Australian stocks are in any way comparable. In some ways the incredible choice may be the barrier to entry for you I suspect?

Cheers


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ody
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Hi Baysider,

Thank your for your positive message. I am glad to see you have done well. And not surprised, either! In my own case,there are some factors that make me invest quite differently from the way I did when I was your age (and, for that matter, younger and older): in the last few years I have found share markets so much harder to handle that I moved largely into corporate bonds, which provide me with a very substantial return. Not, of course, as high as in a really strong year in the share market. But this does not worry me. Largely, I take the view that I "have made the money", and that at age 78 I should no longer make myself anxious by investing in "whimsical" share markets, though I always - still - have some small holdings there. Admittedly, if I had kept the shares which I sold early in 2016, then I would - dividends included - have made as much as in the bond market: but ... no more, and I would have experienced far more stress. I *in practice* certainly WOULD have made more, by following my decades-long practice of selling off losers at around -10% (sometimes before) and letting profitable shares run. I still look at the original performance of that early 2016 portfolio every day, and keep learning, and knowing yet better what I would - if I ventured forth - do next time, if I wanted to make more than about 9%. That figure, however, does me fine. Even with the new superannuation rules, 9% on significant capital produces a strong return, and I just keep ploughing back money that we are not using (whether inside our super fund our outside it). It's a bit like interest compounding over the years.

But, in your case - although with the wisdom of hindsight I now feel I should always have had some money in corporate bonds - I would, as you have done, have played the Trump rally, for sure: it is a good example of people following a trigger en masse, and you can usually exploit that if the mass is confident enough, and if you get out before it changes its mind. And here is one reason why I'd still try to bank on the US, from CNBC (which I quote):
---
Here's why earnings are so outstanding even while the US economy is barely growing:

CNBC analysis found that the difference between earnings per share growth and gross domestic product expansion in the first quarter is the widest since the third period of 2011.
[BUT] Strong global growth is making up for the lack of activity domestically.
S&P 500 companies which generate more than half their revenue overseas are posting first quarter earnings growth of 19.9 percent, on average, double that of companies that conduct a majority of their business domestically, according to FactSet.
---
The one obstacle about investing in the US has to me always been that I find it difficult to decide which stocks to pick. In Australia, with local knowledge, and particularly by using Stock Doctor sensibly, I have very much made our family money by selecting the right shares for keeping and selling off those I should not keep - and by being predominanly in the market during the right times. For individual investment in the US, I would feel far less confident, as I'd know - and ironically learn - probably less, or less easily, than about Oz shares. So for my limited excursions into the US I have relied either on what seemed competent LICS, or ETFS, or at earlier times unlisted unit trusts (I'd hardly use these now). I add that although this was not ruinous, I felt I did fare less well with them than if I had been able to choose my own shares and managed those actively, the way I do with Oz shares. So I can't really with confidence recommend any INDIVIDUAL US shares to you as I feel I know too little about them. That said, my impression is that e.g. Google and Amazon would be very profitable shares. In the US I'd go less for the smaller shares (though a knowledgeable person would pick them up) but for big shares - operating WORLDWIDE - in the process of making huge money. I think the most dynamic big US stocks demonstrate that global activity and ability, which few shares in Oz would have. And I don't think ANY other country would normally beat the really great US stocks, particularly over time. The US has the know-how, the technological expertise, the business experience, the clout, etc. American stocks are "made" to conquer the world, and several know how to do it. But I would not know quite which ones to pick, and how.

Possibly certain sectors, played with ETFs, would do better than others - indeed, I'd be surprised if that were not so. But even in that respect I feel I don't know enough.

Ironically I would certainly pick with confidence some Oz shares if only they were cheaper, and I am in fact waiting hopefully for such an event to occur!


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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Share markets sliding (moderately, I admit)

There does not seem to be enough that's positive happening to resuscitate what recently had become a more negative mood, and the US as well as - tomorrow - our stocks will probably prove to be on a downward path at this stage. Europe is positive, but the ONLY reason for that is that Macron is in the ascendancy - in a way we are seeing a "relief rally" as Le Pen's chances appear to be diminishing. Overall, however, there seems to be an emerging consensus that stocks are valued too high relative to their intrinsic value and should not go up further, that earnings and some economic signals are not encouraging, and in particular that zero or negative interest rates have probably deprived the world from the recession it should have had, and now also from convincing growth, as the prices for assets have far outpaced growth in the economies. Huge debt in several places is also clearly seen as a problem. Currently I would not be a buyer, and pay attention to the saying "Go away in May". We may well see a correction. It would be good if that also meant a less wild approach to the housing market here in Oz.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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dydavo
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Agreed, but are there not a few Au companies with growth and yield which are doing smart thing/s, or are monopolies, or have some other reason for holding and are in a nice uptrend?
I cannot pay my way on 2-3% on cash (and not prepared to buy corporate bonds), so holding/ trading FLT, APA, SKC, LLC, AGL, TAH atm (from my watchlist of big cap dividend payers). The list can change on any day as I look to sell strength (eg, sold NAB May 2 when "overbought" near enough to overhead sloping resistance line.)
How many people are interested in a new discussion zone along these lines, "Trading for a living"? That was also the title of an early Dr Alexander Elder book!

Cheers

dydavo


David
Momentum trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Hi dydavo,

This thread has quite a diversity of investors and traders and I am pretty sure that there would be many people who would be very interested in any trading/investing ideas that you would be willing to share.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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I agree with Rudy, dydavo.

I am interested in the fact that you are not "prepared to buy corporate bonds", as these are on the whole much safer and show far less volatility than shares. I have had no trouble making 9.5% on corporate bonds (a mixture of two thirds in AUD and one third USD) during the last twelve months, and I am talking about "money in the bank", so to speak - not "on paper" results. Of course this figure did not result from yield alone, but the trading involved was moderate and easy. I have far more time than before for other things than investing, and sleep more easily. That said I am also keeping a few shares. One which I like is WAM, as it is (though expensive) very well managed - actively and with a diversification of shares - and it produces a growing flow of big franked dividends. Even so, it too went down steeply during the GFC - that is the risk with shares: a really steep sell-off. To which I would at once honestly add that I don't as yet see a repeat of the GFC. The fact remains, though, that shares are volatile, so unless you are prepared to sit through a slump (as I would with WAM), you must, indeed, actively trade, and I find that a considerable amount of hassle, though this sense, on my part, is also due to the fact that (a) I no longer need to build up capital, and (b) I am now 78, so cannot afford to take as much risk as I used to. Not long ago I still actually enjoyed being active in the market, including repeated selling as part of my way of making money (in essence that of someone who sells the losers and lets the profits run until they seem "ready" to lock in).

FLT, which you mention, is a stock now drawing some attention. I think Corporate Travel is a stronger company in much the same area, and would feel safer with it. But with FLT there is perhaps more opportunity for active trading. It soared up as a market darling until early 2014, and has been mostly going down hill since that time: someone trading it would have had to be very active indeed. But perhaps it does have merit as a trading proposition just now.

I have also used your strategy of selling into strength, dydavo. For example, during 2012 and 2013 I kept buying and selling the banks, often taking advantage, in selling, of their rising in price before they went ex-dividend. That proved a very profitable strategy. Of course, "selling the losers and letting the profits run" should not be taken as meaning that one should never lock in a profit!! So I would certainly agree that there is a whole variety of ways one can make money. And I know that this is true even if one invests in the share market alone, but the way chosen must suit one's personality. For example, I tend to go very much long only, and don't do shorting. In principle I sell losing shares before they "go down further".

My most major concern about the share market is avoiding the really big falls, as I cannot deal with those. And I prefer to see a market where I am confident that a rise is likely to be sustained for some time: this is where I have mixed - slightly negative - feelings about share markets today. I think much of the Trump rally as that has translated into the Australian market is not reliable to build on, as our economy is not, I feel, inherently as reliable as that of the US, in terms of overall strength. And our shares are on the whole just now historically speaking extremely expensive. But of course a great deal depends on which shares one buys, on one's willingness to trade or on the other hand sit through a low, etc. Ultimately, therefore, each investor's decision about strategies to be adopted is likely to be - and probably should be - subjective.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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MQG

The bank is performing very strongly as a company - the times seem to suit it, as it has a very acute eye for financial "possibilities". We live at a time when one really needs to grasp just where money is made and why - selectivity is very important just now. MQG is not cheap, I believe, and does not (of course) stand out as generous in paying dividends. But I think it is quite likely that it will continue to make money and attract interest.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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From Yahoo Finance: not good news

"One in four (767,000) Australian households are currently experiencing mortgage stress with just over 30,000 in ‘severe’ stress, according to Digital Finance Analytics.

"The mortgage stress figure for April marks a jump of almost 100,000 households compared to March."


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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dydavo
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Imagine the awfulness if interest rates head up without commensurate wage rises. Australian financial crisis?


David
Momentum trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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ody
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David:

Yes, already commitments which Australians have made to housing finance are exceptionally high. For example, we are the second highest country if one calculates how many more times than their income Australians typically spend on the price of their property, which here is currently 12 times. (Three or four times was considered appropriate not many decades ago.) The only place on earth where this rate is currently higher is Hong Kong. And this fits in with the general fact that asset prices in Australia have far outrun wages growth - the share market is even in terms of this simple basic fact considerably overvalued. This is not to say that the properties and the shares are bad long-term investments - but it IS to say that prices have run well ahead of where they should be, and this makes this country's economy highly vulnerable. I cannot see how mortgage stress - to mention just that - will not increase unless prices stay more constant or go down. To my mind "bad debt" is debt that people have difficulty, or will not be able, to repay, while "good debt" is debt which they can almost certainly conveniently repay and which meanwhile they use to genuine and lasting financial advantage. (This is not to wade into Morrison's definition of good and bad debt.)

The addiction to property is to my mind something like a national disease, and one sees that, I feel, when one learns that developers have great difficulty selling - even to a young couple of modest means - a dwelling with three bedrooms and one bathroom, with capacity for extension. This sounds like a sensible approach. But what do the youngsters want, and without delay? Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. This appears to have become a necessity - or else simply a matter of "our birthright", as Australians. With attitudes like these, the country is clearly setting itself up for a serious deterioration at SOME time - e.g. a massive sell-off in property and/or shares, a recession which hurts, or an outsized inequality in incomes and wealth.

By no means ALL people have come to behave foolishly. Some, like Rudy here on ODB, have very sensibly moved out of the highly priced Sydney market to a place where they can obtain a perfectly sensible dwelling for a much lower price. The money that comes to be available as a result of such a transaction can then be usefully employed for wise investment. And the switch has also some similarity to the wise saying "sell high and buy low". What many Australians do, by contrast, is more like "buy high for prices will continue to go higher, so you have nothing to lose" - without paying attention to the fact that for many that does not turn out to be true.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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dydavo
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Thoroughly agree ody. The distortions in the economy (introduced or maintained by different governments) that promote property investment have presumably also been a large contributing factor. Control of land supply, at least in NSW by developers can be added to the mix.

Will there be a serious attempt to unscramble the myriad distortions? Maybe more tax $$$ shovelled towards the demand side for 1st home buyers? Let's see.


David
Momentum trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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ody
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David,

I think that currently governments are likely to go down the path of least resistance, and that is certainly the inclination of the present (disappointing) government. The way to help prices go lower is to scrap or at least reduce negative gearing and the capital gains tax concession. As investors now have the largest portion of loans (often interest-only to boot!) they are greatly able to benefit from the tax measures to push prices up, and this is of course just what has been happening. The cure would NOT be to make the problem yet worse by raising prices as a result of a first homeowners grant, allowing people to use their (supposedly compulsory) super savings, or any such step intended to make matters easier for first homeowners: the result would be higher prices for them, not lower ones. The effort should be totally directed towards making property a far less easy target for making money, so that we don't end up with a political class where many have several properties and thus cannot get themselves to abolish the very advantages in taxation that they have profited from. In essence the property market in this country has become a national Ponzi scheme where all are supporting higher prices, for fear that they might all lose if they changed the conditions. Yet the situation cannot, in terms of the cost which people can bear, continue upwards the way it has done, so if the situation is not somehow controlled, an eruption of some kind or other will prove inevitable. The laws of gravity are universal, and Australia will not prove an exception.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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dydavo
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Indeed. One of my jobs is to help my sons understand the economy-distorting effects of lobbying of politicians (such a long list of lobbyists in Australia!), and to help them understand how to avoid the effects of the deconstruction of the mess.

David


David
Momentum trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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ody
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HOW SELF-INVOLVED ARE OUR POLITICIANS IN THE DEBATE ABOUT HOUSING COSTS?


The article below explains in full detail how strongly involved our Federal politicans are in the housing market and how difficult it therefore is for those not so fortunate to believe that they will take decisions in the national interest rather than their own. The article appeared recently in The Sydney Morning Herald, and I have edited out numerous illustrations and related material, concentrating only on what is actually said. While the formatting will not look perfect, I do think I have succeeded in scrupulously conveying the content of this long but exceptionally informative and important article. Here goes:

From THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
April 22 2017

Houses of Parliament: Politicians own an estimated $370m of property

Talk about skin in the game: Australia's 225 federal politicians have $370 million tied up in the property market.

And that's a conservative estimate based on the assumption that each of their 561 declared properties is worth the average Australian dwelling price of $656,800.

These 561 properties include primary and secondary homes, investment properties, holiday homes, commercial buildings and vacant undeveloped land owned by the MPs and their spouses. They also include a handful overseas.

Some - homes in remote areas, small holiday homes, modest units in Canberra - are likely to be worth a bit less. But a majority of MP's homes and investment properties are located in major capital cities, scores of them in the overheated Sydney and Melbourne markets and likely to fetch seven figures. Or in the case of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's Point Piper mansion, eight figures.

Then there are those properties we don't know about: concealed through companies, trusts and self-managed super funds. Or kept out of the public gaze through the clever use of parliamentary rules. More on those later.

So let's say the true figure is somewhere between $370 million and $500 million - yes, half a billion dollars.
If politicians owned $370 million worth of shares in fossil fuel companies, no one would trust them to make sensible or impartial decisions on environmental or renewable energy policy. So on housing affordability - the great barbecue stopper of modern times - it makes sense to keep your expectations very low indeed.

Of course, politicians should, like all of us, be allowed to own and invest in property. But an exhaustive analysis by Fairfax Media of every federal MP's most recent pecuniary interest register (except for new senators Lucy Gichuhi and Peter Georgiou, who haven't completed theirs yet) highlights just how far removed they are from the experience of everyday Australian home buyers.

Nearly two-thirds of MPs - 144 of them - own more than one property, a rate more than three times the national average. That's 64 per cent of MPs, compared to less than 20 per cent of Australians.

Some of those 144 have two houses for personal use - one in their electorate and one in Canberra, for example. But most of them explicitly label at least one of their properties as an investment property.

Australia's 226 federal MPs have declared they own 561 properties on the register of interests. That's about 50 per cent of MPs, compared to just over 10 per cent of ordinary Australians.

The numbers:

In both absolute and proportionate terms, Coalition politicians - who largely oppose any crackdown on negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions - are by far the biggest property owners.

The Coalition's 105 MPs and their spouses own 315 of the declared properties - 56 per cent of the total number. Labor MPs declare 198 properties and minor party and independent MPs declare 48.

At least 18 of the 22 government cabinet ministers have declared more than one property - Peter Dutton is the biggest owner with seven. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his wife Lucy have six, including a New York apartment, bringing the Coalition cabinet's total to 58 declared properties.

And at least 16 of the 22 members of shadow cabinet also own more than one property in their total of 51. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten owns just one home. His agriculture spokesman, Joel Fitzgibbon, owns five.

That means the 44 members of the two cabinets own 109 properties between them.

Fifty-three MPs or their spouses own property in Canberra, not including the four that live there permanently. Most charge taxpayers $273 a night to stay in those houses during parliamentary sitting weeks.

Sixty-seven MPs declare interest in only one property, leaving just 14 of Australia's 226 federal MPs who do not declare any property ownership. Fairfax Media asked all 14 whether they truly do not own any property but only two - Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman and Nationals MP George Christensen - confirmed that was the case.

Christensen said he could not afford to get into the market when he was in his 20s and by the time he made it to Parliament prices in his home town of Mackay had skyrocketed, leaving him wary of investing.

"Now that Mackay prices have come down a bit I'm thinking of getting in but haven't made up my mind yet," the 38-year-old says.

The high rollers:

At the other end of the spectrum are the high rollers: 18 MPs declare an interest of five or more properties. Again, it's Coalition MPs who dominate, accounting for 14 of those 18 and nine of the top 10.

Nationals senator Barry O'Sullivan owns 33 properties, Nationals MP David Gillespie owns 18 and Liberal Karen Andrews owns 10. The others in the top 10 are Nola Marino (9), Ian Goodenough (8), Dan Tehan (7), Dutton (7), Turnbull (6), Tony Pasin (6) and Labor's Deb O'Neill (6).

Most don't like talking about their portfolios.

Indeed, after Fairfax Media sent Marino questions about her property holdings, she sent all Coalition MPs an email - in her capacity as chief government whip - instructing them not to respond.

"A reminder to members that they should not respond to any surveys", she said in the email on Wednesday.

However some MPs are prepared to talk about their interests. West Australian Liberal Ian Goodenough ignored Marino's edict to respond to questions about how to improve housing affordability.

His prescription: reduce the cost of "headworks" by finding more cost-effective ways to provide utility services to new lots, more timely planning approvals to reduce holding costs and more land releases.

He also supports the idea floated by the Coalition recently of letting first home buyers tap into their superannuation, provided there are limits.

His other advice to people trying to get into the market? "Do not overcommit yourself by borrowing too much. Location is very important in terms of amenities such as services and transport. Always look for rezoning potential or proposed developments in the vicinity that will increase the future value of the property."

Gillespie says he worked hard to build his portfolio. "I was a hard worker and a good saver. I did a decade or more of my life where I was working 60 or 70 or 80 or even 90 hours a week in the UK, in Australia, lots of weekend overtime," he said recently.

"I got a base and I drilled my mortgage and then I was able to make investments.

"The first thing that I can recommend to anyone, if you do have a mortgage, is drill your mortgage. Get it out of the way and then you can make extra investments, whether it be to superannuation or to your non-superannuation investments.

"Don't use your income to 100 per cent support your lifestyle. My grandmother always taught me keep your savings growing and that's what I've been doing since I was a teenager."

All sage advice. And there's no doubt Gillespie did work very hard to build his 18-strong property portfolio.
Then again, he was fortunate enough to find work as a well-paid gastroenterologist on the relatively cheap NSW north coast - and get a firm foothold in the market years before the current crisis took hold.

While half of MPs have at least one investment property, less than a quarter - 49 by our count - declare any rental income. So some MPs are either not very good at finding tenants, or not very good at following parliamentary disclosure rules.

Then again the rules are a toothless joke.

Independent MP Bob Katter simply refuses to detail his wife's property interests, which are believed to be quite extensive.

"She does not provide me with this information - regards this as private news," the maverick MP says on his register. He's done it this way for years and no one has ever seriously challenged him on it.

A matter of trusts:

Others evade transparency with a little more subtlety - and that's where those companies, trusts and self-managed super funds come in.

While MPs are required to declare their company shareholdings, trusts and SMSFs they are not explicitly obliged to detail any of the investments made by those vehicles - allowing them to easily conceal property interests and therefore undermine the integrity of the entire pecuniary interest system.

Research by Fairfax Media earlier this month revealed politicians and their spouses are using family trusts more now than in any parliament before them, and at 10 times the rate of ordinary Australians.

Almost half of Coalition MPs or their immediate family members have an interest in a trust, and another 13 government MPs have self-managed superannuation funds or other investment vehicles. Labor MPs are much less trust-inclined, with 22 per cent of caucus declaring an interest in a trust.

Some MPs voluntarily disclose their trust or company holdings. But many do not, citing Department of Finance advice they don't need to.

For example, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has a stake in a vacant block of land in Kalgoorlie but you won't find any direct mention of it in his register.

"These properties are owned by the Cormann Family Superfund," a spokeswoman for Cormann said recently. "The Cormann Family Superfund is appropriately declared on the senator's register of interests as required. Senator Cormann and his wife are trustees of that fund, which is also declared on the register. The original purchase contracts were entered into by Mathias Cormann and his wife in their capacity as trustees of the Cormann Family Superfund."

Cormann has not done anything untoward or broken any rules. But his case clearly demonstrates that the public does not get a complete picture of the parliament's interests. In theory, an MP could have a stake in dozens of properties this way and we'd be none the wiser.

And then there's what's known as "form B".

For reasons no one can adequately explain, senators don't have to declare their spousal interests in the same way as lower house MPs. While a lower house MP is expected to make it all public, senators can put their spouse's property on a separate form - "form B" - that is not made public.

Cory Bernardi's $1 million party headquarters is apparently declared this way; so too Richard Di Natale's farm.
Of the 14 MPs that don't publicly declare any property, 10 are senators. One, the Coalition's Zed Seselja, confirmed to Fairfax that his home is declared on his wife's form. Others, including frontbenchers Arthur Sinodinos and Kim Carr, were not so forthcoming, declining to answer questions.

"All of Senator Carr's declarations have been made on the Senate's register of interest," Carr's office said in a statement. Which could mean he has nothing to declare, but more likely means everything is on "form B".

Clearly then, transparency needs to be improved. If politicians are going to make decisions on housing affordability - decisions that could affect the wealth and wellbeing of millions of Australians for generations to come - the public has a right to know how much skin they truly have in the property game.

(Message edited by ody on May 07, 2017)


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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colin_twiggs
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Only two ways to cure a property bubble:
  1. Allow house prices to fall by raising interest rates;and
  2. Raise incomes through wage inflation. Higher wages restore housing affordability.

Both actions have risks:

Falling house prices cause mortgage stress and solvency issues for investors as their asset base shrinks relative to their liabilities.
Banks will likewise suffer from a similar fate as LVRs rise and sellers struggle to repay existing liabilities.
Consumption will fall as mortgage repayments take a bigger slice of disposable incomes, creating an economy-wide contraction.

Inflation has its own attendant risks and is likely to increase demand for property as an inflation hedge. This can be offset to some extent by macroprudential measures such as lower maximum LVRs to restrict demand.
The problem is getting the genie back in the bottle once inflation has done its work. This normally takes restrictive monetary policies which are likely to lead to a recession.

Not much of a choice but I would favor the latter (recession) over the former (banking collapse and financial crisis). Sensible fiscal and monetary policies could have avoided the problem in the first place but its now too late for that.


My views expressed on this forum do not consider your personal circumstances and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update

Further to my post on the 29th April in which I suggested that the 76.4% GFC Fib level at 5971 would probably be at least a temporary stumbling block to the upward trend for our market. The chart below is a weekly chart of the XJO showing the last 12 years of price action. We can clearly see that not much has changed in the intervening period. Indeed it is starting to resemble the period in early 2015 when this level caused the market to stall and eventually fall away.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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baysider
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Hey Rudy

Looking at your charts would you say we're currently in an Elliot wave 5, which in theory should extend a bit further?

How's Tasi BTW, have you moved across the water yet?


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rdumas
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Hi Baysider,

I must admit that there are so many counts that you could have on this pattern both bullish and bearish that I tend to give EW the big flick at times like these. For the hell if it though lets consider both cases.

The bears would suggest that the move up from the March 2009 low is a wave B that could be nearing completion. The bulls would suggest that the same move was an impulse move and we were in the final stages of a wave 5. Now even in the bullish case, there is no reason for wave 5 to terminate at a higher point than wave 3. That would be the case in a failed wave 5 for example.

Whilst it is possible to go higher in the bullish case (as with bearish case) I think that that 76.4% GFC retracement Fib level is a strong overhead resistance and there is a good argument for a double top forming at present. If that were the case then the market could experience a hefty down turn in the near future. I have taken a small bearish position in the market and will add to it if things turn down.

As for Tassie, we had a delayed settlement which gave us a chance to give Helen's Mum a bit of quality of life for a few months as she is in a care facility. Our place is finally settling at the end of the month and we are heading over on the 28th via the Spirit of Tasmania.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Geoff Wilson, Buffet and other good investors

From WAM:
Chairman Geoff Wilson continued his travels through the US investment landscape this week. In Omaha, he attended his first Berkshire Hathaway AGM, Gabelli's Omaha Investors conference and the AGR conference. Geoff also attended the annual Columbia Business School dinner: "from Graham to Buffet and Beyond" in Omaha and the Sohn Conference in New York. The theme over the long weekend in Omaha and in NYC was that the market was fully valued and incorrectly pricing equity risk. Most fund managers Geoff spoke to were holding high cash levels, with many commenting that active managers were best placed to respond to the current market conditions. Warren Buffett began the Q&A session with a pertinent reminder to the 40,000 investors in attendance: "Stay inside your circle of competence. Only invest where you have an edge".

All this makes excellent sense to me. I have been saying for quite a while that most prices are simply too high. However, while they should - and probably will - fall, I also think that there are some excellent companies around, including Australian ones, that, if once priced down to a more appropriate level, will be excellent performers. Indeed, the ones that I have in mind ARE excellent performers, but simply too highly priced. It is very difficult to find "value" right now. I do not think, however, that it is extraordinarily difficult to find good stocks, although in many cases it becomes hard if the technology is intricate. There are, however, also some very good "ordinary" stocks, like Nick Scali (which I recommended strongly last year), of which the strength is not at all difficult to see. It is now losing some price strength and would be a good buy if the market turned and included this one for a price reduction along with other good companies. Although residential real estate looks as though it has now probably "topped", Nick Scali will have plenty of sofas etc to sell for quite a while yet. A strongly managed family company with an excellent track record. But no longer cheap. I also like Challenger, as it is very succesfully dealing in annuities, with almost certainly ongoing growth - but I see it as expensive just now. Anyway, I think we are all longing for a correction, and one would have thought that it may not be far off, now.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Stock Market Crashes in Years Ending in 7

Interesting that there have been pretty significant market crashes in 1987, 1997 and 2007. Does this point to a potential problem year for stock markets in 2017?

My bearish instincts tend to think that markets tend to to travel in cycles and that the above crashes are no coincidence.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Crashes in years ending in 7

Rudy, this is both a correct fact to note (although not all of the crashes were quite the same in severity, but I do remember 1987 and 2007 as particulary bad, and 1997 wasn't good either). I think there is a degree of agreement that the share market works in ten year cycles, with the year ending in a 7 bringing the predominantly upward move to an end. The last ten years have, of course, been rather up and down, certainly here in Oz (far less so in the US), but one could argue that although there has been nothing like a straight line here in Oz the Trump rally in which we partake has now taken prices to an articficially high level. This does NOT mean, that there has been no economic improvement of late, particularly in the US: in fact, the US has not economically performed at all badly of late, and even Europe is finally seeing some improvement in much of its economy. But it is not the nature of that improvement that matters: it is how things are financed. And that is where the trouble lies. Prices for stocks were noted to be too high at the Buffet gathering, and many of us have noticed a similar development even here in Australia, although our market has not reached anything like 2007 levels. While earnings are in a number of instances improving, share markets get ahead of themselves. This has happened particularly during the Trump rally, which inspired people with the sense that "Now there will be growth", as a result of which they started investing eagerly. So, in my view, prices must come down for the markets to find continued support. I do not expect a fall as bad as in 1987 or 2007, and that is because I do not think that markets "have got it wrong" as badly as they did then. But I do think they are too high, that among the more knowledgeable people fears are growing, that money is already being taken out of the market, and that reluctance to put money into it is growing. Under such conditions a correction would seem likely. But it may well not be more than 10 or at most 15% (perhaps even 20%), rather than a "proper" fall like the 1987 or 2007 ones. In 2007/8 our market got halved: I do not think that will happen now.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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hailoh
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A query for Colin: my assumption (post 482: lower TMF peaks coinciding with index peaks reaching the same levels) is that this reflects falling market investment (less money, lower momentum).

Is that a correct reading of the indicator?


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colin_twiggs
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Hailoh,

Declining TMF peaks when the index is making new highs is a bearish divergence warning that selling pressure is rising.

Declining TMF peaks when the index is making equal highs is a weaker version of the same signal.

Hope that answers your question.


My views expressed on this forum do not consider your personal circumstances and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

You will note from my previous post that the market has used the GFC Fib levels as it main levels of support and resistance. These will tend to be the most likely levels for future potential major declines. The levels in question are the 61.8% Fib at 5426, 50% Fib at 4986 and 23.6% Fib at 4001.

If the market has formed a legitimate double top then the 4001 level is not out of the question. If the bearish Elliot Wavers are correct and the current top is the end of a B wave then again that 4001 level is a typical retracement. If the bullish Ew's are correct then a trip down to the 5426 is more likely.

I personally don't rule anything out because of the global geopolitical problems we are facing. I prefer to take it one Fib level at a time and monitor the shape of patterns formed.

Of course, there is still the possibility of the market pushing through the 74..6% Fib level and forming new highs but I would think that the probability is not as high as for a decline.







I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Trump worries now definitely affecting financial markets. Share markets generally down from high levels - not just in the US, but globally. The USD - interestingly, as that is so often sought in times of trouble - is DOWN. The VIX index, which measures anxiety of the US share market (and others) is UP, indicating fear of downward pressure on share prices. Those had been very highly valued anyway, in no small measure as the Trump rally starting in early November was based on "Trump bringing growth". With Trump now under pressure, there is fear he won't be able to implement his pro-growth policies, which is an acute danger to the Trump rally on share markets, as those markets are currently showing by selling rather than buying. This COULD play out pretty strongly in the days to come.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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