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Author Message

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hailoh
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Username: hailoh

Post Number: 457
Registered: 04-2003

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Wednesday, September 14, 2016 - 03:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I take your point, Colin, and in terms of aphorisms "don't fight the Fed" is possibly even more relevant.

I'll still be looking at the crowd, however, to see whether I can spot that little boy.


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ody
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Post Number: 6927
Registered: 10-2006

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Sunday, September 25, 2016 - 01:41 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sensible comment (I believe) from Chris Stott, Chief Investment Officer at Wilson Asset Management:

Currently trading on an average price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 to 16 times, which is slightly above the long term average, the market is quite fairly priced in our view. Following reporting season, we are not currently confident that the market will move significantly higher in the short term. Many companies remain focused on cost-outs and are still struggling to achieve revenue growth. Mining services companies are a notable exception to this trend with businesses in the sector starting to see an improvement in revenue growth. Looking further ahead, over the next one to two years company earnings per share (EPS) growth will be required to drive equity prices significantly higher.

Overall, we are cautious in our outlook for the equity market although we are continuing to find investment opportunities and anticipate we will continue to do so. Rather than being sector-specific, these opportunities are found amongst companies that are achieving growth.

---
I (Ody) in particular agree that it is a stockpickers' market, with many companies likely to offer mediocre results and gains. Careful examination of stocks is essential, and many are to be avoided. Also, earnings will be absolutely essential, and although some companies are strongly growing their earnings, many are not. Moreover, several of those which do grow are very highly valued, and several of those have come down in their share price. The market continues to be difficult to invest in, with uncertain prospects caused also by lack of clear direction in interest rates (which for many investors seem to be the only important matter to look at!).

I have looked at what would have happened if I had stayed in the stocks I bought for the most part late last year. If I had sold each stock that went down by 10% - as I commonly have done during most of my investing life - I would have obtained a quite reasonable result, as most of the "winners" did spectacularly well (until recently, at least). Even so, far too many were disappointments, and I am glad I did not stay in the market as I would have had to pay a lot of attention and waste a lot of energy on worrying. I shall later give a number of specific companies which I think may still do well and certainly have done, as well as those disappointing.







I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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bridog
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Saturday, October 01, 2016 - 03:38 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

Deutsche Bank in trouble?

A very interesting and worth watching ABC The Business tonight. If you didn't see it, it's probably available on I-view.

$14 or $18 bn fine from US (both figures mentioned), market cap $16bn.

$68tn liabilities in derivatives, 12 times the German GDP. These derivatives also major contributor of systemic risk in global banking system for major banks in Europe, Asia and US.

$1tn in non performing loans.

Scary stuff . . would appreciate any thoughts you may have on Deutsche Bank.

(Message edited by bridog on October 01, 2016)


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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ody
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Username: ody

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Saturday, October 01, 2016 - 08:12 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Deutsche Bank

Thanks, Bridog.

I had not yet seen any news on this, as I was spending time with family. But yes, this does sound very bad. I don't think it is a Lehman Brothers yet, and attempts will be made to act more quickly and strongly to avoid that, but of course it IS a major sign of how economic management has lost its way, and it is exactly this kind of trouble that does tend to set off some sort of significant crisis. I do think it only confirms that one should batten the hatches, and not be unduly optimistic that all the tinkering we have seen has actually provided safety. That said, and emphasising the need to avoid risk, I still doubt that we'll actually see something quite like 2008. But we may, and the US share market, notably, is at a very high level and thus vulnerable to a sell-off. This is not a time for risky moves, obviously ... Here is an interesting link: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/sep/30/deutsche-bank-fears-stock- markets-shares-slide-business-live.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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bridog
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Saturday, October 01, 2016 - 11:19 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Ody for your reply and also the link. Very interesting.

The reduction of the fine to $5.4bn sounds like a relief. Lots of comments saying DB is too big to fail, well we've heard that before!

After reading Taleb's Black Swan, I've been looking for them ever since and can't help but think that DB is a possible candidate. The whole thing has transformed me into a bear without hair for now!


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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ody
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Sunday, October 02, 2016 - 05:54 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



DEUTSCHE BANK - AND THE IMPACT

When the news first broke that the US might claim $14 to $18 billions as a "fine" for the fact that Deutsche Bank has pretended that it was dealing in a bona fide way while in fact it was knowingly selling subprime paper (of the US kind), markets reacted in near panic and shares went down in many places. However, when Twitter reported - without any proof or confirmation so far - that the ultimate compromise amount would probably be less than $6 billion, markets at once moved up - and significantly. The whole irrational way that these bits of "news" were dealt with shows the essentially superficial, deeply nervous (or alternatively over-confident), and almost always at least partly ignorant character of modern financial life.

No doubt, whatever the fine imposed, the view will in any case be adopted that the bank is too big to fail, and there will be the usual steps taken, howevery irresponsibly, to protect the bank from disaster. Merkel has already said this is none of her business, and that she would not step in, but that assertion can be safely rejected as merely political: Germany (and indeed other European nations) would not let the bank sink, for this one is truly "too big to fail". All sorts of steps - all of them essentially harmful to the parties involved - would, as usual in these efforts to obfuscate and not to tackle reality, be taken pretty well unhesitatingly. In fact, since the GFC and before, we have lived in a Keynesian universe where payment of a difficult debt is perpetually postponed or ignored, and stimlus of various kinds are held to "solve the problem", or at least to make things look as though it is only a matter of time before the problems will disappear in some other way. For example, "the economy will be stimulated", while in fact what we mostly see are significant rises in the prices of assets such as shares and residential housing, with ongoing low economic growth otherwise.

And does the actual nature of Deutsche's problems deserve to be described as "merely the trouble of a fine", but not "really bad"? That is what the CEO would have us believe. Here are some figures posted by "bridog" on this forum page which suggest otherwise:

Market cap of the bank: $16 BILLION (a trifle compared with 16 TRILLION - compare next paragraph). Even a fine of no more than 6 billion would respresent a *substantial" portion of the company's capitalisation.

68 TRILLION in derivatives. This amount is so large that most of us can hardly take it in. However, it helps to see that it is TWELVE times the total German Gross Domestic Product. To quote Bridog: "These derivatives [are] also a major contributor of systemic risk in th global banking system for major banks in Europpe, Asia, and the US."

Further there is another 1 TRILLION in non performing loans.

There is no doubt in my mind that "shorters" will again and again try their hand at making money at the expense of a bank so weak and vulnerable. To an extent this has already happened - and the "mere" 6 billion or so which is such a "relief" will not eventually count for much.

The most important thing about all this news is NOT the "fine" and its size: it is WHAT MARKETS ARE COMING TO SEE AS THE FACTS CONCERNING THIS VERY MAJOR EUROPEAN BANK. WE MAY NOT SEE A "GFC" CRISIS, BUT THE IMPACT OF A SITUATION LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE FORGOTTEN AND BE ADDED TO THE SEVERAL FEARS WHICH MARKETS HAVE ALREADY.

And, of course, with news spreading, other relevant scandals and abuses are also coming to the fore. I quote from *Zero Hedge* (an informative publication, and which quotes Bloomberg):
---
Deutsche Bank Charged By Italy For Market Manipulation, Creating False Accounts
by Tyler Durden
Oct 1, 2016 10:08 AM

For Deutsche Bank, when it rains, it pours, even when everyone tries to come to its rescue.

One day after its stock soared from all time lows, following what so far appears to have been a fabricated report sourced by AFP which relied on Twitter as a source that the DOJ would reduce its RMBS settlement amount with Deutsche Bank from $14 billion to below $6 billion (and which neither the DOJ nor Deutsche Bank have confirmed for obvious reasons), moments ago Bloomberg reported that six current and former managers of Deutsche Bank, including Michele Faissola, Michele Foresti and Ivor Dunbar, were charged in Milan for colluding to falsify the accounts of Italy's third-biggest bank, Monte Paschi (which itself is so insolvent it is currently scrambling to finalize a private sector bailout) and manipulate the market. Two former executives at Nomura Holdings Inc. and five at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena were also charged.

The news comes in a time of heated relations between Italy and Germany, when the former has been pushing to get German "permission" for a state bailout of its insolvent banks only to be met by stiff resistance by the latter as Merkel and Schauble have demanded a bail-in of private investors instead, even as - ironically - it has been Deutsche Bank's woeful financial state that has been in the Wall Street spotlight this past week.

The charges culminate a three-year investigation by prosecutors that showed Monte Paschi used the transactions to hide losses, leading to a misrepresentation of its accounts between 2008 and 2012. The deals came to light in January 2013, when Bloomberg News reported that Monte Paschi used derivatives to hide losses.

As BBG adds, "the charges deal another blow to Deutsche Bank, which is seeking to reassure investors and clients that it will be able to withstand pending U.S. penalties over the bank's sale of mortgage-backed securities and its dealings with some Russian clients."

In what appears to be another case of Wells Fargo-esque scapegoating of junior employees to keep senior execs off the hook, just weeks after Milan prosecutors shelved a probe against Monte Paschi's former chairman and CEO for alleged market manipulation and false accounting as it "risked undermining investor sentiment", a judge approved a request by Milan prosecutors to try the bankers on charges involving two separate derivative transactions arranged with Nomura and Deutsche Bank, said a lawyer involved in the case who was in the courtroom Saturday as the decision was announced.

DB's Faissola, whose roles included overseeing rates and commodities, was put in charge of Deutsche Bank's combined asset and wealth management division in 2012 when Anshu Jain and Juergen Fitschen took over as co-chief executive officers of the Frankfurt-based lender. Deutsche Bank last October said Faissola would leave after a transition period, and John Cryan has replaced Jain and Fitschen as CEO.

Just as importantly, the firms are also named as defendants in the indictment, as the Italian law provides for a direct liability of legal entities for certain crimes committed by their representatives. Which means even more legal charges, fines and settlements are looking likely in DB's future.

A trial is scheduled for Dec. 15.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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bridog
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Deutsche Bank

Hi Ody,

Appreciate your well researched article which I have just seen on the forum. I no doubt also got it in an email but I get so many emails that sometimes all I get to do is sample them and some days get missed altogether. Not desirable as I miss a few important ones.

I record The Business on the ABC and therefore was able to go over it line by line and make notes. I've since deleted that episode so can't refer to it any more but the banks referred to as involving the derivatives were as follows:

Europe: Credit SU, Barclays, Parabis.
Asia: Mizuho, ICBC, Bank of China
US: Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America.

What drew my attention was the talk of trillions of $s. As you say $1tn is an almost inconceivable amount in terms of $100 notes. For anybody that hasn't thought about it they can get the idea from http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html . 68 times that is truly unimaginable!

While derivatives are supposed to be balanced in bank's books, it could just take one lemming to fall off the cliff to start the herd.

I am reminded of that oft quoted Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times"!


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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bridog
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VOC is now suitable only for trading IMO. Spenceley and Grist were technical experts who built up two business and amalgamated them against great odds, thus proving their business acumen as well.

I guess the drivers for the MTU amalgamation were retail cash flow for Vocus and technical infrastructure for MTU. Unfortunately it was really a reverse takeover with MTU gaining control.

Now that Spenceley and Grist have lost control and resigned, we are left with what is basically a technical company run by internet resellers.

Good luck with that!

(Message edited by bridog on October 17, 2016)


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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ody
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Stocks, at end of 21 Oct 16

Here is a list of how the stocks would have performed that I sold on 8 January, after having modestly entered the market in October 2015, but having bought heavily in December and in early January. Even while buying I had less than full confidence in what I was doing, and on 8 January I decided that 2016 was not going to be "my year", with stocks like these. I can only successfully invest by doing it "my way". Usually - if the environment suits me - a majority of my original choices continue to go up. This time that would not have happened, and if I had bought equal amounts of each stock the prices would by now be such that I would have been running at a loss (in terms of price alone). The number of losers exceeds that of winners. However, I did not invest equal amounts in each stock, and one also has to consider the yield. As I was heavily overweight WAM and WAX, I would currently, in total, have been up by 1.04% on the price, and by a total of 5.57% if the yield is included - even without the addition of franking. So I would still have been clearly in the black, but would have found the experience of being in the market this way most frustrating. In the event I have been better off with corporate bonds, which not only have produced great yields, but in several instances could be sold off profitably (with a capital gain) so long as a replacement could be found.

Most importantly, however, I should frankly add that I would most certainly NOT passively have kept these stocks. Habitually, I sell off stocks if they have gone down by 10%, or even earlier, unless I see very good reasons for hanging on to them despite such a degree of loss. That policy would - this time as at others - have served me very well, as I of course would have produced a much better result by adopting my usual "sell the losses and let your profits run" approach. But I suspected, when I sold on 8 January, that I'd have to sell off a good many stocks, and decided that the whole process would have greatly annoyed me. Given that things have so far played out according to my expectation, I have no regrets about selling, though no doubt others would have acted otherwise. Mine was a purely personal choice. I am posting these figures simply for interest, as they may be of benefit as study material. The dates of purchase are mentioned, as well as rises/losses, in percentage terms, as per the end of trading on 21 October. I stress that yields are NOT included in these figures. Also, that of course they do not express that I actually did not hold the same amount in each stock. Still ... the list shows why I correctly judged, early in January, that I'd find the going much harder than at ANY other time, since 1983, when choosing to be substantially exposed to the market. (I am of course talking about my own experience only. And I realise that these are not figures for 12 months.)

"Good stocks"

A2M (A2 Milk), 17/12, +87.98%
AIA (Auckland Airport), 29/12, +0.79%
BAP (Burson), 21/12, +22.82%
DMP (Domino’s Pizza), 18/12, +16.37%
FPH (Fisher & Paykel Healthcare), 04/01, +2.37%
MYX (Mayne Pharma), 04/01, +23.26%
NCK (Nick Scali), 24/11, +32.52%
RCG (RCG Corporation), 24/11, + 2.12%
RFF (Rural Funds), 04/01, + 12.34%
WAM (WAM Capital), 27/10, +14.12%
WAX (WAM Research), 16/12, +26.85%
AVERAGE = 21.90%

“Bad stocks”

AHG (Automotive Holdings), 17/12, -17.12%
AIZ (Air New Zealand), 17/12, -36.44%
APE (AP Eagers), 29/12, -14.56%
APO (APN Outdoor), 07/01, -25.29%
BFC (Beston Global Food), 17/12, -8.63%
BKL (Blackmores), 18/12, -45.09%
BLX (Beacon Lighting), 24/11, -11.76%
CBA (Commonwealth Bank), 17/12, -7.26%
CDM (Cadence Capital), 17/12, -20.01%
CKF (Collins Foods), 07/01, -3.65%
EVT (Event Hospitality), 17/11, -0.91%
HGG (Henderson), 20/11, -37.36%
IPH (IPH Ltd), 21/12, -41.38%
MFG (Magellan), 24/11, -14.80
MQG (Macquarie), 20/11, -1.63%
MTR (Mantra), 24/11, -24.45%
TGA (Thorn Group), 17/12, -14.17%
WBC (Westpac), 17/12, -5.70%
AVERAGE = 18.34%


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/aud-surge-may-signal-good-times-for-the-global -economy-001626169.html

I hope that readers can access this link. It takes one to Yahoo, but the article was actually taken from Bloomberg. It presents an interesting, very positive view of the Australian economy and dollar, and indeed of the global economy as well. The title is "AUD surge may signal good times for the global economy".


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Folks,

I have been off the scene for a while as I have been going through the process of preparing my house for sale. We are now at the pointy end and look like we are going to settle on the sale in mid January. Then its South bound down to Victoria for a while.

I am currently short term long in the market. I very much doubt that it will be for long.

The chart below is a weekly chart of the XJO showing the last 10 years of price action. We can see that the weekly TMF has been slowly heading south for some time and does not show any signs of getting very excited.

In recent times the price action has been playing in the zone bounded by the white 23.6% and 38.2% Fib ranges. There is a confluence of the blue 61.9% Fib range which is close to the top of that range as well.

At this stage I don't see any reason for breaching that ceiling. I will monitor closely. If the market did decide to turn sour, I would be looking for a move down to around the 5000 level and possibly beyond.







I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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welcome Rudy. I am currently short XAO for pretty much the reasons shown in your chart. Not a great money making trade so far but I'll hang in for a while.


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rdumas
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Hi hailoh,

There are quite strong opposing views about which direction the next significant move will go. I definitely like to be travelling in the direction of a current trend with my trades. I have been caught far too many times trying to anticipate a change in trend.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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The following, I think, is very much worth considering

From *The Bull*:

A scary number looming over Australian stocks

By Expert Panel | 21.11.2016

Sydney Airport surged 89% over the past three calendar years. Toll-road operator Transurban rallied 71% over that time. Banks climbed 45%, REITs charged ahead 55% while utilities soared 51% compared with a gain of 26% for the ASX/S&P 200 Accumulation Index from 2012 to 2015. These companies didn't become more efficient or announce anything masterfully strategic to deserve higher share prices. They mostly just benefitted from the way central banks have warped share markets with their promiscuous monetary policies.

The disfigurements on share markets swelled when central-bank asset buying on top of negative policy rates bludgeoned bond yields into unheard-of negative territory. Over the past 12 months, for example, yields on government bonds in Germany, Switzerland and Japan out to 10-years in maturity turned negative. Australian 10-year government bond yields dropped to a record low 1.82% on August 2 this year, swept along by this trend, low inflation and 12 rate cuts over the past five years by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Investors, perhaps unwillingly but rationally, turned away from term deposits and low-yielding bonds and sought bond-like equities, those that offer stable long-term income streams just like fixed-income securities. Stocks with sound fundamentals, but which lacked the tag of "yield play", were often overlooked as this macro-driven momentum distorted global share markets. Citi Research estimates that macro factors explain between 70% and 80% of equity-market variance over the past three calendar years [SIC! - Ody], up from an average of about 55% over the previous five years.

But this rally in interest-rate-sensitive stocks could never last. The bubble would always expire when central banks refrained from more meddling and we may have reached this point. Bond yields are rising as policymakers, acknowledging that monetary policy has reached its limits, are turning to fiscal policy to prod economies. Amid a rise in global bond yields, a 50-basis-point jump in Australian 10-year government bond yields since August 31 has savaged many yield-sensitive stocks.

The concern for stock investors, especially passive ones, is that bond-sensitive stocks form a record 60% of the S&P/ASX 200 Index due to the financialisation of Australia's economy of recent decades, which has seen bank lending balloon from 85% of GDP in 1991 to about 160% of output now. The unwinding of the distortions on stock markets magnified by central banks thus threatens a record part of the ASX.

Yield-plays, to be sure, assumed a greater proportion of the ASX before the global financial crisis so their pre-eminence is not all due to crazy monetary policies. Bond yields could drop again if deflation re-emerges as a threat. That would postpone any reckoning for bond-sensitive stocks. Cyclical stocks, in theory, also come under pressure from higher interest rates. However, having not participated in the gains from lower interest rates, it seems somewhat logical that they should be more insulated from increases. The worry for yield plays is that the rise in global bond yields looks entrenched. Be prepared for turbulence if yields rise faster and by more than expected.

The rise of bond sensitives

One way to analyse the ASX is to split stocks into the three categories: bond sensitives, diversifiers and cyclicals. Bond-sensitive stocks include financials, REITs, utilities, telcos thanks to their regulated and (often inflation-sheltered) income streams, infrastructure owners for the same reason and even healthcare companies due to investor belief they face endless revenue growth. The cyclicals are material, energy and consumer discretionary stocks. Diversifiers include consumer staples and industrials, sectors that fall outside the other two categories.

Such a breakdown would show that in 1973, when Australia was a relatively closed and rigid economy, bond-sensitive stocks only comprised about 15% of the benchmark (using the S&P/ASX 300 Index equivalent then as the proxy). This percentage dropped to about 10% during the recession of the early 1980s when credit growth slowed. It was only in the mid-1980s (when lending surged after the financial sector was deregulated and foreign banks were welcomed) that bond-sensitives reached 30% of the index.

The victory over inflation in the early 1990s and the borrowing binge that followed boosted bond sensitives to more than 50% of the S&P/ASX 300 by 1998, a level they hovered around until 2012, even allowing for gyrations around 2008.

Then came the emergency actions of central banks of recent years. Low interest rates have encouraged credit creation of 10% to 20% a year in recent times, lending sprees that have driven up prices on all assets including stocks but especially housing. This policy-driven resources allocation (there is little wealth creation) propelled bond sensitives to that record 60% of the ASX over the past year. (See chart below.)

This ratio has dipped now that bond yields are rebounding. The peak of central bank meddling seems to have been reached earlier this year when superstar economists such as Larry Summers questioned the effectiveness of extreme monetary policy and instead advocated steps tied to fiscal policy.

Whatever the catalyst, the appetite for bond-like equities is waning now that interest rates are rising. The rebound in the Australian 10-year yields past 2.3% pummelled Sydney Airport by 14% and lopped 9.3% off Transurban over the past two months. During that time, REITs were slammed 12% and utilities 6.2%. The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation shed only 1.7% over September and October.

Debt-heavy

The unwinding of the bond-sensitive bubble is made even more precarious by the fact that management teams at many yield plays have made their company fundamentals more susceptible to a jump in interest rates.

Utilities, infrastructure stocks and REITs are more vulnerable because management used low interest rates to borrow heavily, sometimes to pay dividends. REITs' average gearing, for instance, is about 33% now, which, while below the peak of about 40% that proved dangerous in 2007, is up from 28% three years ago. REITs have also massaged accounts by adjusting depreciation ratios to boost earnings, a ploy that investors can overlook when momentum favours such stocks, but not now. Healthcare stocks are being punished because their growth profiles are exaggerated.

Higher interest rates shouldn't, in theory, hurt bank margins. The risk for banks is that higher interest rates might boost bad debt ratios. This is already happening to some extent: last fiscal year, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a 27% jump in bad debts to a five-year high of $1.27 billion. But bad debts are still low, as major bank impaired assets only stood at 0.4% of total loans in fiscal 2016. To put any rise in that ratio in perspective, every 25-basis-point jump would shave about $6 billion off banks' pre-tax and provision profits of about $46 billion for fiscal 2016.

Cyclicals are likely to remain relatively insulated from any shakedown triggered by higher bond yields. Not only are material and energy companies enjoying higher prices for their output, they reduced debt to cope with the decline in commodity prices from their record highs in 2011.

If recent slides on stock markets are part of a large downward repricing of all assets then watch out. Housing is especially exposed and a correction to home prices would have widespread effects on many industries, not just banking. For starters, there will be fewer people passing through Sydney Airport on holiday.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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hailoh
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Ouch! You made your point today, Rudy. In spades!!


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rdumas
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Hi Hailoh,

Actually I took out a hedge yesterday with BEARs so that I would not be caught the wrong way with my STW. The STW performed better than the BEARs so I have made a little bit but not as much as I would have if I had not taken out the hedge.

Still, I am happy enough to act cautiously at this stage.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Turnaround in Oz?

The Trump revolution convincingly sent up the US - both shares and the USD - after the initial "shock-horror" effect. Investors started focussing on Trump's victory speech, realised he would/could not implement all he promised, but would probably achieve a measure of growth and deviation through policies deviating from the debilitating status quo of low interest rates and QE. For Australia the postive implications were not nearly as obvious, and indeed there were - and are - good reasons for us to believe that the going will be harder than in the US. Even so, after hesitation, investors have grown somewhat more confident, which has led to a jump into the share market by a number of them, and also today - more tellingly - the first rise in the AUD after several days of malaise for our currency. Whether the AUD really stands to gain against what, in a pro-growth scenario, should lead to more growth, inflation and higher interest rates in the US, very much remains to be seen. But for the moment, at least, Australians seem to be getting a bit more optimistic. It may matter, also, that Turnbull at long last with the independents scored a victory against wealth destruction by the unions in a vote he much needed to re-establish credibility. If the government actually managed to get its own agenda into a winning position, that would help, although is support is fragile, and it is running a risk with a crazy superannunation policy among ohter things (a policy which in fact excludes politicians and fat cat public servants on high salaries with guaranteed "rich" defined benefits in retirement). Turnbull needs to do a lot of sorting out, and has proved largely ineffective. That, combined with many uncertainties for Australia, makes it vital to select one's Australian investments carefully. And I'd not bank too confidently on Trump either.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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From Stephen Koukoulas

(I agree with him that it would not a bad idea for the RBA to cut interest rates, as Australia needs stimulus. The US will probably get it, after electing Trump, but here we are still very much in the doldrums, and most certainly need the AUD to go down yet further. With the USD rising such a move could have some real positive effect for us. Australia is being complacent once again, and overrating its "luck".)

Here is Koukoulas:

For the RBA, which targets inflation well above the current level, there appears to be a pig-headedness in an assumption that things are about to turn up even though the run of news is skewed towards softness. Australia's interest rates remain among the highest in the industrialised world for reasons that are linked to the RBA's rose coloured view of the economy.

It begs the counter-factual question. If the RBA were to cut interest rates tomorrow - or at its next Board meeting in December - what would the risk be that such a move would underpin a wages breakout? A shortage of workers in the economy? A troublesome rise in inflation?

The answer to all of these questions is "none".

There would be no risk that such low interest rates would lead to an overheated economy. Even a 50 basis point interest rate cut to 1.0 per cent would not pose a threat but it might lead to a softer Australian dollar which would boost exports, free up cash flow for indebted consumers and businesses alike and it might be the spark to see stronger economic growth as investment was encouraged.

The Australian economy remains in reasonable shape, but there are risks emerging which should see the RBA cut interest rates again.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi hailoh,

Just an update on our earlier discussion on the XJO. As a matter of interest, I exited my STW holding today so now am short the market using my BEAR stock.

Both of the following charts are daily charts of the XJO. The first shows the last two years of price action. It shows the overhead resistance on the price at current levels as well as the TMF hitting its head against the slowly descending overhead trend line.






The chart below looks at the last 9 months of price action. It just shows things a little more clearly. I should note that this chart is only current as at about 30 minutes ago. If the tweezer candle stick pattern remains intact then there is a strong possibility that we may see a reversal at this point in time.

The size of the reversal is naturally unknown at this point in time. At present the move from the November low is 3 waves. If the move up becomes an impulsive 5 waver then the impending retrace would have to terminate above the high of the first up wave. If the retrace dropped below this level then we bears could start cheering.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Rudy, we are both looking at the same pattern.

I was starting to feel a bit cocky before the last three days. Now the margin to my drawdown limit is starting to look a bit squeezed, but still well intact.

I am still trying to come to grips with the way that promising indicators flip through expected sequences overnight and lose relevance. Keeps the grey cells working.


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ody
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Colin,

I believe that your sober analysis of the fundamentals in the US is very accurate, and it is not an encouraging picture. We must hope that Trump will succeed, but he is largely an unknown quantity, as a President. And in any case the economic situation is simply not showing enough growth to warrant the almost total turnaround in investors' moods that we have seen since Trump's election. His pro growth attitude may look promising, but the overall economic situation in the US is not actually at all wonderful, and it remains to be seen what Trump can achieve, given the problems. And I don't even mention Brexit, or Italy, etc. Or indeed problems in Australia. The rallies we are seeing are almost totally based on mere optimism about growth based on what Trump has SAID. Ultimately we shall have to see just what he DOES, and how good a President he will be. I think caution still remains a wise attitude to adopt under circumstances like these. I particularly worry about already highly priced assets - notably shares (still not cheap, even after falls) - being pushed up too hard and too thoughtlessly (if the enthusiasm continues, that is).


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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hailoh
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Ody the president elect is off to a great start, anyway.

Taking the line that the Trump extended family is part of the greater American family, I read that queues some hundreds of metres (yards there) long are lined up at Trump Tower to buy "show bags" of MAGA caps, inscribed chocolates and other Trump memorabilia for $100-$200 a pop.


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colin_twiggs
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Thanks Ody,

The challenge is to lift business investment which is low. Currently too much is flowing into buy-backs, supporting high stock prices, instead of into R&D and new capital equipment where it belongs.


My views expressed on this forum do not consider your personal circumstances and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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Exactly, Colin. The situation remains worrying at a fundamental level, with excessively high prices for both shares and property continuing as a result of far too much stimulus and low interest rates. Actually in Australia I think a lower interest rate might be useful in helping the currency to go down further, but only if it is recognised that monetary policy is not a panacea and that other steps are urgently needed. Money is indeed spent far too much on the wrong things. And, by the way, the Australian government is continuing to steer money away from business investment by foolish policies which encourage Australians to invest often almost exclusively in property, which benefits from the fact that people can sell their family home every time they wish without paying tax, and from negative gearing.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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hailoh,

Further to my previous post. You may recall back in the days when Randall used to post on IC he had developed a system called the Idiot system based on moving averages. Whilst we are looking at potential turning points for the XJO based on previous levels of support and resistance as well as Fibonacci levels, it should be noted that Randall's Idiot system has BUY signals in all time frames (daily, weekly and monthly).

So there is no reason to feel too bearish at them moment. If I see that the rally is continuing I will be re entering my STW hedge.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi hailoh,

So far, so good..........

Below is a daily chart of the XJO showing the last 2 years of price action. As hoped for, the 61.8% Fib level on price and descending red trend line on the TMF is having an effect.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Those of us running our own super fund are not likely to be greatly impressed by the figures below, including those for industry funds, though they are much better than the other category, the performance of which is gravely inadequate.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/industry-vs-bank-owned-super--which-is-best-22 3742105.html


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Further to my earlier posts. The daily chart of the XJO showing the last 2 years of price action is shown below.

As mentioned in my previous post, the 61.8% Fib level (which coincided with obvious previous support and resistance) had a significant effect on the price action. Unsurprisingly price was rejected at that level but to me whilst the technicals at this stage are a bit conflicting there is enough positive stuff for me to feel that the current overhead resistance may only be temporary. As hinted at in my previous post, I did re enter my STW hedge in the past few days and could possibly remove my BEARs sometime in the coming week.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Rudy: I think hesitation about the Trump rally is beginning to show itself to a slight extent, along with fear of the first interest rate rise in the US, but by and large people seem to accept that as evidence of growth and inflation (which is really what everyone wants to see after the failures of monetary stimulus). So yes, I agree the Trump rally is probably not yet over. With any truly upsetting wild act on his part we could immediately witness a sell-off, but so long as share markets are not going to be confronted with that or something like Brexit in any of the European countries, or some other upset, they will probably continue to believe in growth, and may well plod on (with caution, it would seem). But we should also note that there has been a downtrend in many of them just recently. I think your point is, and I agree, that this will not necessarily be more than a minor correction within a rally still perhaps intact.

(Message edited by ody on December 04, 2016)


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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The futures for the ASX on Monday are up somewhat. The market seems reasonably comfortable at around 5400 (with reasonable confidence) and a figure somewhat below 5500 (which has proved harder to sustain). The question is really whether it can raise itself beyond the 5500 with which it has so often struggled in recent years, and only significantly broke through, as a barrier, early in 2015, when it got close to 6000: but that has, overall, been an aberration, and - despite many positive forecasts - has proved very hard to reach, leave alone get through. I would not bet on it. The first really major question has to be whether 5500 will be taken out with any strength, conviction, and duration.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

Because of the volatility in the market these days I tend to only look at one leg at a time. At this stage my target level would be the 5600. After that I would need to look at how the technicals looked at the time.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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European shock

Well, it has happened. Polls - even if not always reliable! - were already clearly indicating that Italian PM Renzi would lose the referendum he chose to have, and he has done so, and will resign. This throws Italy into confusion, and Europe with it. Most Europeans have for long known that Italy is a political and economic mess, and any lack of clarity and certainty as to where it is going greatly disturbs Europe, with renewed doubts about European unity, the future of the Euro, etc. This is no doubt one reason why the Australian stock market is down quite a bit, and for at least a number of days we must expect uncertainty for share markets globally. Europe is, among the "developed" parts of the world, the weakest link, consistently having demonstrated political and financial/economic ineptitude, partly as a result of the GFC, but more intrinsically because of the fact that the very construct of the Union is a faulty concept, with totally heterogeneous countries trying to forget how different they are from each other and holding a currency which wrongly suggests that one cap fits all. This particular event is itself an upset, but comes at a time when Brexit is already on its own a major cause for uncertainty and upheaval, and when in several countries separatist (isolationist) politicians are in the ascendancy. Brexit and Trump have shown that the deplorables, as Hillary Clinton so arrogantly and self-damagingly described them, are demanding that attention be paid to them, which will only strengthen the "populist" politicians such as Le Pen and Wilders. There are still many who cannot take in this new reality, but it is amply in evidence, and it is within this overall context that such a thing as the Italian PM leaving must be seen as a very signficant, unsettling event. To think that all these matters will not affect share markets would be the height of naivety. I note by the way that the NZ PM has decided to resign after doing a great job: this will also be making its impact on share markets in Australasia, though the succession may well be "reasonable", and Europe is far more of a concern. Remember that Trump pushed share markets UP (after an initial fall) because of his pro-growth policies: the event in Italy will - at least to an extent - have the opposite effect. For share markets, Europe is almost certainly a much greater worry than the US, at least at this stage.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Further to my earlier posts on the XJO. Last night the XJO touched a very critical level which suggested to me that a bounce was potentially at hand.

Below is a daily chart showing the last 12 months of price action. As suggested in my previous post I will be looking to exit my BEARs sometime today whilst leaving my STW in place.

I still only see a move up towards the 5600 level at present and will reassess things if this does happen.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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On the plus side:

The S&P500 has lifted 5% since Trump was elected President last month, whilst the S&P financials index has surged 14%.

That is a VERY impressive Trump rally, and the US event may well outweigh the troubles in Europe. For the moment, at least, treatment of the Italian problem, by markets, seems to have been largely indifferent, which has surprised me. Either Trump has really changed the international mood, or the European problem still has to assert itself more strongly.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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This article provides good comments on bonds. Australian corporate bonds have proved an excellent investment to me over the last 12 months, with an overall return of more than 9% due to trading of bonds as well as obtaining their yields. I did this through, and with help from, FIIG Securities.

From THE AUSTRALIAN

Wealth
Bond critics overlook critical distinctions

Bond market trends

Elizabeth Moran
The Australian
7:15PM December 5, 2016


My job is to comment on financial markets and my particular expertise is fixed income. Other people have expertise in shares or property or pork belly futures. As an expert in fixed income, it has been particularly galling in recent weeks to see the explosion in commentary about the bond market from people who know as much about it as I know about pork bellies.

A common error among financial commentators is to lump all bonds into the same basket, for example "bond rout set to continue"or "it's not a good time to invest in bonds".

In common with property, there are various bond sectors that react differently to changing economic conditions.

Government bonds do not behave in the same way as corporate bonds. The "bond rout" headline referred to US and Australian 10-year government bonds which are bonds that not many individuals own directly.

Most government bonds are fixed-rate bonds. When they are issued the interest paid on them is fixed, so when interest rate expectations are going down, the price rises. Over the last decade this trade has delivered some fantastic returns for investors. Now that interest rates are expected to rise, the price of the bonds has come down, generating some eye-watering losses. Those that have generated the biggest losses are those issued in the past year or two that have very long terms to maturity: 30 years or more.

But corporate bonds have different metrics. For a start, they pay higher interest than government bonds because they are higher risk. Returns range from 3.5 per cent per annum up to 10 per cent per annum.

Most corporate bonds are issued for terms of seven years or less, and as they get closer to maturity, changes in the price of the bonds due to interest rate expectations decline. There are plenty of corporate bonds in the market that have barely registered the changing government 10-year yields.

To illustrate the changes in prices, let's compare the performance since late August of a long-dated Australian government bond, maturing in 2033, to three corporate bonds.

The Australian government bond with 17 years until maturity was priced at $126 pre-Trump and has since declined by $6.47. In comparison, the Downer fixed-rate November 2019 bond with three years to maturity has declined by just 24c. Even extending the term to maturity with the Qantas 2021 fixed rate bond, its price declined by 90c to $114.50, not something most investors would worry about. The price of the G8 Education floating rate bond maturing in March 2018 is flat.

In corporate bonds you get paid a credit risk premium for taking the risk the company will not pay you back. In government bonds there is no credit risk if you are purely taking interest rate risk. The longer the term to maturity of the government or corporate bond, the higher the risk to capital, given a change in interest rates.

Another significant and often overlooked fact is that there are different types of bonds. Interest on corporate bonds can be floating rate - in other words, interest income changes as interest rate expectations change. Floating rate bonds are like owning rolling three-month term deposits, except you don't have to shop around for the best rate; the return is automatically adjusted for you!

One floating rate opportunity I like is Suncorp subsidiary AAI, with an expected maturity of October 2022 yielding close to 5 per cent per annum. The certainty of the quarterly income and the fact capital is returned at maturity make these bonds really attractive to retirees. Who said bonds couldn't compete for yield seeking investors! Few individual investors would chose to own government bonds with such low interest rates.

Investment is mainly by the largest global investors who have mandates forcing them to hold government bonds. Examples include banks, insurance companies and superannuation funds.

Managed funds will hold government bonds for liquidity and exchange-traded funds will also hold them as investments must replicate an index. Unfortunately for bond ETFs, as governments issue more and more debt, they take up more and more of the various indices, unwittingly increasing exposure to government bonds for individual investors unaware of the growing allocation.

Managed bond funds and particularly bond ETFs are likely to post losses based on changes in government yields, but for most corporate bond investors, who do not hold government bonds, losses, if any, will be minor.
--
Elizabeth Moran is a director of education and research at FIIG Fixed Income Specialists.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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I remember saying exactly what is said here about Labor's stimulus spending early on at the time of the GFC, and being severely criticised, here on this forum, for having that view. And for years I have had to put up with frequent advocacy of Labor's wasteful spending, which supposedly "saved so many jobs", etc. So I feel vindicated.

First paragraph of an article from *The Australian*:

Treasury
Labor spending was a blow to economy after GFC, says report

Simon Benson
The Australian
12:00AM December 9, 2016

A damning Treasury-commissioned independent review of the former Labor government's unprecedented spending response to the global financial crisis has found it was a "misconceived" waste of money, fundamentally weakened Australia's economy, almost destroyed parts of the manufacturing sector and inflicted more long-term harm than good.
---
[Of course the outrageous arbitrary building of school halls, dangerous use of pink batts etc are also mentioned in the article. The expenditure was an out and out disaster, nothing else, and it has had only harmful results in the long run. Thus the article shows.]

More from the article:
Successive Labor leaders have argued that the Rudd-Swan fiscal stimulus inoculated Australia from the worst of the GFC and prevented a technical recession.

The Makin paper disputes this. "In sum, fiscal stimulus was not primarily responsible for saving the Australian economy from a narrowly defined recession in the March quarter of 2009 " it says. "What prevented Australia from experiencing a technical recession at the critical juncture in 2008-09 was a combination of lower interest rates, a major exchange rate depreciation, strong foreign demand for mining exports, especially from China, and a then more flexible labour market. Fiscal stimulus later weakened the economy by strengthening the exchange rate and reversing the contribution net exports made to aggregate demand. Largely implemented after the worst of the GFC had passed, fiscal stimulus countered the effectiveness of monetary policy by keeping market interest rates higher than otherwise and contributed to a strong exchange rate."


(Message edited by ody on December 09, 2016)


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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Share markets rising

I am alarmed - at least for the somewhat longer term - by the way the Trump rally has moved shares up in most global markets. What is priced in is very much more the PROMISE of improved growth than a proven reality. True, some figures in countries other than Australia (where much economic news has been bad) have shown a slight rise - but most figures are in essence not firm enough, and much growth is still necessary to justify what are often huge prices being paid for shares on the basis of low interest rates. Should interest rates rise - and it is assumed they will - equities may well suffer, and particularly if their fundamentals do not strengthen, while bank deposits become more attractive. I feel share markets are to some extent playing with fire. Yes, Trump is pro growth. But we have seen very little of what he'll actually do, and any step in the "wrong" direction would destroy much of today's enthusiasm. Meanwhile I can understand people trying to make hay while the sun shines, but I am too apprehensive to join them. I still think that much "correction" in various fields needs to occur before we can count on sound growth.



(Message edited by ody on December 09, 2016)


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

I mentioned in an earlier post that the next rally would probably have the XJO heading towards the 5600 level. I noted yesterday that when it reached the lofty heights of 5550 that the price action was nearing the upper Bollinger Band so decided that it was time to take my profits and run. What little upside was left carried too much risk for me.


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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bridog
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Hi Ody,
I agree most ASX 100 stocks are overpriced and need a good 20% shakeout to make me want to buy.

Everything now is a trade, not a long or even necessarily a medium term investment.

The REIT sector deserves some attention having had a shakeout, but might still be correcting, so don't want to catch a falling knife. Gold is another sector that's mostly fallen much further than the gold price, keeping an eye on that. Banks seem to be on the move again.

I recently bought into TPM, SLR, and SLK, as fundamentals seem to support them at the price. And the charts look positive, but after being burnt with EHE now keep a strict stop loss. Also very reluctant to put more than $10k into anything, unless very high liquidity like banks or Telstra.


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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bridog
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Santa might have arrived at the ASX!


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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hailoh
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Just looking at your byline Bridog: got your OBE yet?

(For the uninitiated Over Bloody Eighty)


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bridog
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G'day Hailoh, nah, not yet, but got my WOS!
(Well Over Seventy)

Forgot to mention resources, lookin' good, if you like danger! Got a couple.

Cheers


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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hailoh
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Interesting milestone,the OBE.

Assuming one has a spouse climbing the ladder not far behind, annual required payout from a SMSF crosses 12%. The philosophical decision is whether you try to stay ahead of the payout percentage (challenging) or whether you do what the Govt. wants and start biting into capital.

That puts you in the position of having one hand held in a fireplace loaded with inflammables and the other trying to stop someone clicking on the lighter.

The alternative is to brick the fireplace up and try to beat the odds. No need to go to my extreme though- have planted the pines that bear commercial pine nuts. They start bearing after 10 years and continue for about 150 years more. Don't know whether I'll make money from the pesto or from the book writing about it in 2150.

I won't get far using the stock market.Went against Kecil's advice and bought some gold miners. Hellishly dark down that hole!


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rdumas
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XJO Update

Below is an hourly chart of the XJO showing the last 2 months of price action. It appears to me that an attempt is being made to reach the old time high at 5611.

For any Elliot Wavers out there, if this is a wave 5 of an impulse wave then it cannot exceed 5618 as wave 3 was shorter than wave 1. If wave 5 exceeded 5618 then it would mean that wave 5 would be greater than wave 3 thus making wave 3 the shortest wave of the impulse. This would breach a fundamental EW rule which states that wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave in an impulse wave.






I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update

Below is an hourly chart of the XJO showing the last 2 months of price action. It appears to me that an attempt is being made to reach the old time high at 5611.

For any Elliot Wavers out there, if this is a wave 5 of an impulse wave then it cannot exceed 5618 as wave 3 was shorter than wave 1. If wave 5 exceeded 5618 then it would mean that wave 5 would be greater than wave 3 thus making wave 3 the shortest wave of the impulse. This would breach a fundamental EW rule which states that wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave in an impulse wave.






I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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XJO

Rudy, your reading of the move for the XJO in the short run looks quite plausible to me, although I am not altogether convinced that the flow of money is entirely as strong as it should be, for the target described.

I could well understand your staying in the market just now, and if I adopted the same strategy - for the short term - I would argue that there are two factors that are pushing the market up: (1) interest rates are still low, but assumed to rise, and (2) people seriously believe that Trump will go for growth. Both of these assumptions may well prove right, i.e. we could see interest rates rise, at least in the US (but not immediately here, I would think), and Trump will probably indeed generate more growth (at least in the US).

However, the very rise of share prices is also by itself quite worrying for other reasons. In general, rising interest rates tend to inhibit share markets, so if interest rates do rise, possibly the strength of share market rallies may well fizzle out. Furthermore, prices currently are very frequently way in excess of where they should be in relation to earnings generated. In a way people are gambling on the assumption that the Trump factor will produce more earnings, but this will inevitably take time, and rising interest rates will usually not help in the process. For these reasons, I think that anyone playing the market rather than the fundamentals, but who takes fundamentals such as interest rates and earnings into account, will find it necessary to try and avoid overstaying.

For if my reasoning is correct, what we are - in the first instance - seeing is a rally rather than the certainty of an ongoing bull market. It may thus well be sensible to get out at some point after having made a tidy profit. That said, I think that it is quite conceivable that we will see rises in interest rates, which I think would ultimately be positive both for economies and (longer term) even share markets, and that in a growth scenario earnings should also go up. Trump's tax plans, favouring the US, should bring more workers into employment there and thus increase US consumption and economic activity.

The most important aspect of his "advent", I think, is that people will not longer feel that we are doomed to stay in an ongoing low interest environment with too little growth - i.e. facing ongoing stagnation. It had become almost a universally shared fashion to think that such a scenario was going to be a "new normal".

If Trump proves to have any merit, economically, it will be that he moves people out of that mental groove and teaches them to think outside the square (or the box, as the Americans call it). If he does achieve that, it will be no mean feat. I think that since the election share markets have clearly chosen to believe that Trump actually economically is serious in wanting to change matters around drastically yet not too brusquely: this became obvious immediately after his extremely soothing victory speech - a masterpiece of platitudinous rhetoric which reassured many people who think in a business-like manner.

Whatever those pushing share markets up may think of Trump as a person, they have left us with no doubt that they believe he will act, economically, so as to go for growth, and hopefully achieve it. At any rate, the bottom line will almost certainly be that the next few years will see a drastic departure from the ways of the period we have lived through since the GFC.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

You obviously did not read my post 6033 on Friday addressed to o you in which I said that I exited the market as even though there may have been a little upside left in this leg I felt that it carried to much risk for me to stay in.

I do not regret having taken that decision. My short term trading style has always been to take a bite out of the middle of a leg rather than try to squeeze out every last dollar. I leave that to others to enjoy (or regret).


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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bridog
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I just think it's a Santa Claus rally which is likely to peter out by Christmas


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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ody
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Overlooked post - for Rudy

Rudy, you are quite right: for some reason I overlooked the post in which you interestingly described your exit from the market! I agree - of course - with your reasoning. I think that the rally may well have a bit further to run, but it is much wiser to be safe than sorry. Bridog may be right to think that Christmas will put and end to it, though I do not think that we are seeing a conventional Christmas rally: the impetus of it, and the time of its commencement, must - I feel - be seen as due to the Trump factor. Actually, it is not only the Trump victory which has boosted confidence, but the fact, also, that the Republicans are firmly in charge (though they need to be cautious in the Senate) which leads people to conclude that we are seeing a change in direction. Markets don't usually wait until results of a new policy come in, but act on the promise of what they think will be a change in course, in an instance like this. I think the enthusiasm has been getting way too strong - not so much because I feel the US government will blunder, but because the fundamentals are at the moment way out of tune with share prices. So some kind of correction surely is on the cards. But I congratulate you, Rudy, for having moved in at a good time, and out again for the sake of safety before the high point which you foreshadowed has actually been reached. The future should be most interesting. First we shall have to see whether the Fed now dares raise interest rates!


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO hourly chart update

Once again the chart below shows the last two months of price action.

As suggested in a previous post I believe that our index is attempting to get to the previous high at 5611. As of time of writing this post we are within 23 points of that level. It should be noted that whilst the price is rising, the TMF is actually falling suggesting that the short term rally is running out of steam.

I will probably enter into some BEAR stock in the near future to hopefully catch the short term down leg.






I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Interesting, Rudy!


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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How about this?

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/34018


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

As you know I have spent a number of years getting into the guts of Elliott Wave analysis and was very keen about its usefulness in predicting future events. Robert Prechter from Elliott Wave International has been predicting a major top and a multiyear crash from about 2012 (my memory is beginning to fail me these days but it was certainly years ago). Anthony Caldaro, one of the most respected EW analysts on the net until earlier this year had been predicting an imminent major top to be followed by a multi year bear market . He has had a complete turn around and now has the market in a strong bull market.

I have been a bear for years now because I just could not see how globally governments could keep spending money that they didn't have ad infinitum. That just doesn't line up with every thing that I have ever been taught about managing a household budget. My bearishness has undoubtedly cost me a lot of lost money making opportunities.

No doubt eventually what the dooms dayers have been predicting for years now will eventuate and they will say "see, I told you so". The fact that their subscribers have been led up the garden path for years before will not be recalled.

So when you say about the above article "How about this?" I say "take it with a grain of salt and just keep looking at one rally leg and correction at a time."


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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rdumas
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XJO Update

Below is an updated hourly chart of the XJO showing the last 2 months of price action. As I mentioned several posts previously I felt that our market was attempting another test of the previous high fractionally above the 5600 level. At time of writing this post it had already reached the lofty heights of 5595.7.

I have drawn some lines on the chart to show the similar rate of assent of this rally to that which occurred previously. Because I am a fan of symmetry I have extended the lines to show a butterfly pattern. Note that the latest bounce occurred off a rising blue trend line.

I still feel that I may be buying myself some BEAR stock in the very near future.




I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Do nothing, Rudy, until I have posted unassailable evidence, supported by ironclad indicators, that the XJO is headed for 6000.

Then, short 'til the cows come home!!

The chart pattern is symmetry in motion isn't it? I posted another view of the same on the other channel- post 468.


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rdumas
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Hi hailoh,

I must admit that I had not understood what you were trying to say in that post. I can be pretty thick at times and this is another case in point. I did not understand the TEXT comments....


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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hailoh
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Ah Rudy, I thought I was doing pretty well constructing a box around what I was looking at. The TEXT just came along for the ride.


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rdumas
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XJO hourly chart update

Right on time and close to price, the XJO topped and started moving down. I must admit though that the price action did not inspire me to go into BEARs as to me the set up still looks fairly bullish at present. There appears to be a number of levels not far below the current price where a bounce could occur. So for the time being I am keeping my powder dry.








If we look at the longer term (see 3 year daily chart below) we can see that the move up from the low near 4700 has been very much of an overlapping pattern. That is more normal for a corrective pattern than an impulsive pattern so in spite of the TMF being in a holding pattern in the buy zone, the double top and overlapping pattern does give me some negative medium to longer term messages.







I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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bridog
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SLR

Extraordinary trading after the close! Trading occurred all day between 51 and 52 cents until massive trading after close amounting to over 80% of all trades at 53.5c!

It's also 13% of issued shares so we should find out on Monday what's going on . .


Just an old mug punters rambling . .

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ody
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Quite a fall at the end ...

Rudy, I am sure you were righ to exit when you did. To get the fall really "right", in one's prediction, would to my mind have been harder, and even now we don't know whether it will persist, though the end of the day looked pretty miserable. It *could* just be that people are beginning to think of the possibility that shares had gone too high, and that for the time being the Trump rally is quieting down. I don't as yet see a really considerable fall, though: we'd need probably a stronger trigger for that than just a small rise in US interest rates. Shares are, of course, in many instances much too expensive, and one would think that some kind of "reckoning" will inevitably come. The problem of locating that moment is that much of the presumably positive growth initiatives are still to be introduced or make themselves felt. So the case for real pessimism leading to a major sell-off doesn't yet seem to be in place.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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gdd3
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Hi Bridog ... Monthly and 1/4ly option/futures etc. expiry day. SLR not alone; RMS similar BUT many Goldies had 50 - 60% of their day's trading volume go thru in the P.M. auction period. Some at or near their pre-auction price others, like SLR, jumped/fall a few % in the auction period(probably near/at Option strike prices.

Goldies weren't alone ... CBA for example... was trading at its low for the day $80.23 but closed at $81.06(on 40% of day's vol.

Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. PRU was the huge Goldie loser for the day; down 35% with > 150mil shares changing hands(20% of issued shares).... all as a result of -ve news late yesterday.


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ody
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Thanks Dolphin!


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

Not sure what you mean by your comment "Quite a fall at the end...."

The XJO closed 5.7 points lower than yesterday's close.

The chart below is an updated chart of the hourly showing the last 2 months of price action. As I mentioned in my earlier post, there were too many potential bounce levels below this morning's price action to get very bearish and as you can see from the updated chart, the index bounced off that 76.4% Fib level.

What is different now though is that the TMF has fallen through the rising blue trend line and is under selling pressure. This however is very short term as the daily chart shows the daily TMF in buy territory. See comments above the daily chart showing 2 years price action.







The 2 year daily chart below shows the TMF in buy territory above the rising blue trend line and the price action has very strong support at the 61.8% Fib level near the 5500. I think it would be a mistake at this stage to be too bearish.






I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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ody
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Your reasoning is good, Rudy. There still is good buying support overall, as the TMF shows. Still, the Trump rally started at quite a low level in November, and I think it is now beginning to show signs of "ageing". On Wednesday, it reached a high of 5595, and closed at a still respectable 5584. The saving grace yesterday (Friday) was - "only", I would say - that after falling as low as 5510 before the end, it crawled back to 5532. On a Friday, the slight up-tick at the end may well prove a good sign, but overall the last three days (within the overall pattern of the rally) make me feel that perhaps the Wednesday high of 5595 will not necessarily easily and quickly be reached again, leave alone easily taken out. The number of trading days left before the end of the year is not big any more, and it is conceivable that a number of the players will be calling it a day.

On the other hand, it is also possible that the bulls will be determined to take the market to a considerable high before the end of the year, particularly to provide "a good look". I am not suggesting that you should already resort to your BEAR - that would be exaggerated, I believe. However, if I were myself "playing" the market short term I would no longer be buying. Indeed, I would not be a long-term buyer either: the opportunity for getting set at a more attractive level was weeks back, and currently the shares that I think would in principle appeal to me are to my mind highly priced, with few exceptions. Others have proved highly treacherous and fallen significantly.

If I were to think of re-entry, I would hope for a fall, and for various reasons I think it is not unlikely that there will be one, particularly after so strong a rally which has little more than Trump-generated optimism behind it. I do think, admittedly, that Trump HAS changed the climate and provided a new outlook, but there are still considerable difficulties and many uncertainties, so I think that at this stage we are in a rally rather than in the process of establishing a bull market that will rapidly take us beyond 5595 and last. If I am wrong, and if that level is taken out firmly and ongoingly, we are, I would think, talking about a new world. Not, however, a very safe one to have to buy into, I feel. I think that at some stage (perhaps even now) the market will want to pause at the very least, and most likely pull back to consider ...

Longer term, and prospectively speaking, I am not altogether pessimistic. I would hope for some kind of "clean out" (not just in the share market), and that Trump's pro-business and pro-American outlook actually materialises into action. We would then be well rid of the stagnancy caused by the idiotic, dogmatic attachment to virtually zero interest rates and quantitative easing. And it is absolutely essential that these twin evils be banished. It is much better to have real recessions than to prevent them from occurring. I shudder to think where we might have been if under Clinton the policies which had come to be accepted as "the new normal" had been continued.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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hailoh
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What happens on the Australian markets near term will largely be determined by what unfolds in the US.

DJI daily

The TMF plot since Trump lit a spark has shown a somewhat exaggerated response to small daily losses on what otherwise is a flagpole rise. The reaction in the past few days could simply be the same maths at work.

I am watching it to see whether I am really out on a BBOZ limb, or whether the the market bids no trumps this hand.


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hailoh
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On the same theme, the $SPX shows a more familiar relationship between the chart and 21 day TMF.

SPI daily

The entry - re-entry to the 8% level gives me a little more bear confidence.


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ody
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The XJO at present looks to me implausibly high, in direction, when compared with the S&P500. The Americans are likely enough taking a break from the Trump rally, while Australia seems to be swept into unjustified optimism, as our economy is so much weaker and more vulnerable.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

Below is a daily chart showing the last 30 months of price action.

Note that this 76.4% Fib level has been a strong overhead resistance level on many occasions in the past. I suspect that it may be so again.

Also note that the TMF is approaching and important overhead declining red trend line which historically has been a strong overhead resistance.





I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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dydavo
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Indeed, and the increase in the 20 day ema of closing price has gone up over the last two weeks without any move up in the 20 day ema of Force Index. Ignoring that divergence in the past has usually resulted in unhappiness.
Have sold all big cap positions this morning. Let's see what happens next. Could just be Xmas small volumes, but happy to wait for the next new buy signal in whatever comes along (or not).






David
Momentum trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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ody
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TRUMP RALLY APPEARS TO BE ENDING

It had to happen some time ... shares had gone up far too much too quickly, and they, along with the USD, are now "correcting" downwards. There had been speculation that people might sell "on the fact" once Trump started governing officially, but a number of sellers obviously has decided they might suffer if they waited until then, and Trump's press conference did nothing to help those hoping for reasons to keep the jolly party going. So there is a good chance that quite a bit of ground will be lost BEFORE the "fact" of the new president's first day in office.

I should think there may well be quite a bit sold off, but it is not impossible that if that happens some shares will become more attractive to buy, if we persuade ourselves that growth will be "on its way". So far, the buying has been *in the anticipation* of growth rather than based on it occurring: people have simply equated "Trump" and "growth" mentally. Admittedly there have been some good figures from the US, but it would be difficult to tie them firmly to Trump, per se. So it is important to keep a cool head. A number of enthusiastic buyers who have gone "full bore" may well lose some money, at least in the short run.


I am not a licensed financial adviser. The views expressed in this post should not be taken as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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ody
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Perhaps it will take a bit longer for people to make up their minds firmly about taking prices down after so strong a rally, but our own market, at any rate, is surely beginning to express some doubt about its continuation. The following may also be useful. From Angela Mangan at QMG Pty Ltd:

The ASX200 index previously generated a technical buy signal at 5543 on 8/12/16 and reached the nominated upside technical target located at 5725 on 3/1/17 (referred to in recent wire (VIEW LINK). At current levels the index is a technical hold. However, as a result of the rally the index is approaching the same overbought levels on a RSI / momentum basis that occurred in early 2015 and late 2013, which is reason for caution relating to the sustainability of the rally. The RSI is not a turning point indicator - it flags overbought situations, but does signal when an overbought situation will correct. A technical top formation is the requirement for a technical sell signal to be triggered and there is currently no sign of this emerging. However, as a result of the rally a significant number of stocks have progressively reached previous buy signal targets, notably the major banks, which are now rated as technical holds rather than buys. The resource sector of the market is being watched very closely potentially for a negative technical turning point.
--
Personally I think we need a sell-off before committing ourselves firmly to what looks like a somewhat overbought ASX 200. The rise simply looks too big at present, particuarly as so little is as yet known about profits and growth in our companies.


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ody
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United States strengthening

From Bloomberg:

US companies have added more new jobs than had been expected.

Also, as far as company results are concerned: of the S&P 500 names to report so far, 73 percent have topped profit estimates.

Comment: these seem to me significant figures. I had been inclined to think that the Trump rally was largely emotional, and it probably is. Even so, we must not too readily assume that that scenario cannot co-exist with some really good events within the US economy!


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rdumas
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XJO Update

Hi folks, its been a long time between drinks. I have sold up our house in Sydney and currently living in temporary accommodation in Victoria before finally moving into our house in Tasmania at the end of May.

Haven't had much time to look at the market but have just had a brief look this morning. The US market is acting like a run away train and our market is making an attempt at following. I don't feel convinced at this stage.

The chart below is a 2 year daily chart of the XJO. We can see that our market is in double top territory and the TMF is shying away from its overhead slowly descending red trend line. Whether it is a minor or major obstacle is yet to be seen as we are still in buy territory. The Fib level that the price action is bumping its head against is the 138.2% Fib extension of the previous leg up between (roughly) 5000 and 5600.

We are starting to hear rumbles about possible home load defaults should there be any interest rate increases and the banks are starting a squeeze on loans to property investors. I think we will hear a lot more about those two subjects in the coming weeks.





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colin_twiggs
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Hi Rudy,

Hope you enjoy Tassie. Is this a tree change?

Regards,
Colin


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rdumas
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Hi Colin,

Yes we are moving to Launceston. We finally got so sick of the traffic in Sydney and Melbourne we wanted to live somewhere that was about 20 years behind the rest of Australia. We just love all of the old buildings, the lack of traffic and the friendly people.

Our house is over 100 years old and Victorian architecture. It has been completely renovated on the inside whilst keeping the outside in the old style architecture. We have a delayed settlement date of the end of because the vendor or needed to close off her business interests in Launceston.


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colin_twiggs
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Rudy,
It sounds great. Hope you and your family will be happy there.

Send us a picture.

Regards, Colin


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ody
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Rudy,

Sounds like an attractive change to me. Adelaide, too, is now becoming more popular with some people living in Sydney or Melbourne, for reasons not dissimilar to the ones you mention for Launceston, though of course Adelaide is different in being considerably bigger: it offers (if viewed positively) SOME of the big town advantages (e.g. several good hospitals, but also a lot of cultural activity on various scales), but it is far less congested, far more people know each other, it is still "gracious" with lots of trees, etc. But, of course, for some of the "big town" people it remains a bit quiet and provincial. I liked the looks of Launceston, which offers some similar things to Adelaide on a smaller scale, but another advantage for you is that you remain closer to Sydney, and indeed Melbourne. And, also, Tasmania is a fascinating state to explore. So it all sounds pretty good to me. Certainly you are Launceston's gain ... Interesting to see how many people from Sydney have been boosting prices for houses in Hobart recently.


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rdumas
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Hi Colin,

Not sure if this link will work.


http://https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-tas-east+launceston-12419616 6


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rdumas
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Hi Ody,

We love the way that many places in Tassie (and particularly in East Launceston) there are many places that were built over 100 years ago and people have saved them. In NSW they tear them down and put up high rise.

We look forward to discovering the many treasures that undoubtedly exist in Tassie. By the way we are walking distance away from several hospitals.


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ody
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Your choice sounds great, Rudy! The same factors would weigh heavily as advantages with us (and indeed Adelaide provides us with what we want). Old houses, yes, not the kind of barbarous buildings we tend to see these days; many things of interest in the place itself and the state; hospitals nearby, etc. Good quality of life, I am sure. During the last few years - especially the VERY recent past - there has been a sudden impulse for this kind of change in Sydney and Melbourne. Our son has his work in Melbourne, which is fine, and he is flourishing: but he has now got himself a small place in Adelaide to come over 4 times a year with his family, and is clearly pleased to "escape" from Melburnian pressures on such occasions.


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colin_twiggs
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Magnificent, Rudy
Even a white picket fence.
I love Federation-style architecture.


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ody
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I second Colin's opinion, Rudy. At a first try I didn't see the image! But yes, the place looks great. Who knows, since we love Tasmania as a place to visit (more interest per square mile than almost anywhere else in Australia!), we might well look you up some time. Our memories of our visit to Tassie in 2012 are very positive (avoiding the big bushfire, too ...).


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rdumas
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Thanks for your positive comments Colin and Ody. Much appreciated.


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ody
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Bapcor result and possible future

Some may remember my positive opinion of Bapcor from last year (even though I sold all my shares on 8 January). I still follow the share market with interest, but am largely not invested in it, though I hold e.g. WAM with confidence.

For those potentially interested I here post what the Motley Fool Australia had to say about Bapcor's recent result:

Automotive parts juggernaut Bapcor (ASX:BAP) this morning reported another set of solid results.

Revenue was up 34% to $435 million, and profits, adjusted for the Hellaby transaction, were up 44% to $28 million. Earnings per share (EPS) was up 33% to 10.6 cents, growing slower than operating profits because of the recent capital raising. The company increased dividends by 10% to 5.5 cents, fully-franked and has initiated a dividend reinvestment plan.

Bapcor’s core Trade segment was firing on all cylinders, with sales up 14% and operating profits (EBITDA) up 32% reflecting the higher sales, improved gross margin and lower cost of doing business. Same store sales growth was above 5% and 11 stores were added in the half year. The company noted that a:

“… number of new stores are in the pipeline as the Trade business continues its strong march towards a target of 200 stores. All regions in Trade contributed to the profit growth except for Western Australia which has grown a good sales base but continues to experience a high level of price competition.”

The Retail segment of the business — consisting of Autobarn, Autopro, Sprints Auto Parts, Midas and ABS — also delivered in spades. Sales and operating profits were both up a solid 43% to $118 million and $15 million, respectively. Bapcor Darryl Abotomey CEO commented:

“The integration of Sprints which was acquired in April 2016 has progressed well including the program to increase its sourcing from Bapcor Group’s specialist wholesale businesses. The strategy to increase the number of Autobarn stores is progressing well, having increased the number of company owned stores by 8 to 23 during the 6 month period. Autobarn’s same store sales growth was 2.8% with the second quarter being lower than the first quarter as the business experienced a high level of price discounting and promotions from competitors”

The company’s Wholesale segment added three acquisitions during the first half and also included results from Bearing Wholesalers which was purchased in March 2016. Revenue increased 125% to $97 million, and operating profit was up 145% to $11 million.

Bapcor acquired 90% of Hellaby Holdings shares in February, passing the compulsory takeover threshold. Bapcor expects to complete the acquisition of Hellaby in March.

Excluding Hellaby, the company expected net profit after tax for 2017 to be in the $57 — $59 million range. Hellaby is expected to add about $8 — $12 million to the profits in the second half, excluding transaction costs and other significant items.

We are pleased with Bapcor’s performance. The Hellaby acquisition is an opportunity for Bapcor to grow in the New Zealand market. At the same time, we believe there’s room for growth in the Australian market. The company remains a disciplined performer, with respect to price paid for acquisitions and cost control. It really is the epitome of disciplined execution. Bapcor remains a Buy.


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ody
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Domino's Pizza

For a long time I was a great supporter of the company - but last year I was beginning to worry at the huge growth, and also the very high price level, as I am sure I would have said more than once. Now, I think, the company is a definite sell for those who might still be hesitating. Once you get a situation in which franchisees do not properly handle money and treat employees you should not, as an investor, be part of it. The company now unfortunately has "a bad smell", and that is always difficult to live down. I would not be inclined to buy it, not even if the price went really very low, as one would need to be convinced that the current problems have been addressed and will not recur. A difficult thing for the company to achieve.


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visions
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Hi Rudy,

The house looks fantastic mate, nothing to do or spend by the looks of things.It's a lovely place Launceston, love the walk down the Gorge especially. You also have a great location Rudy, right in the middle between 2 hospitals and not far from the pool for rehab but I'm sure you won't need them. It might be snowing by May , good luck Rudy I do hope the move goes smoothly and you enjoy living in Tassie.

Cheers ... Visions


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ody
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NCK: Nick Scali

People here will probably remember my advocacy last year, and the company has continued to do well. I was a bit too drastic selling everything at the beginning of last year, although many of my stocks afterwards DID go down, in tune with my - generally justified - belief that 2016 would not be easy for me (and it would indeed not have been, given my preference for smallish companies and dislike of resources companies). From everything I have seen and read NCK, which I must confess I hold through WAM anyway, will continue to perform well. Its result was well ahead of anything announced, and so long as there are still people wanting to buy furniture for their newly acquired home, or a home they are improving, NCK is likely to remain a profitable supplier. It to my mind remains one of the most attractive shares on the market.


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rdumas
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Thanks Visions,

I am looking forward to discovering all of the nooks and crannies in Tassie. According to what I have read on the internet, Launceston gets a lot of fogs but very little (if any) snow. It apparently has the most fog bound airport in Australia.

Cheers

Rudy


I am not a financial advisor and the views expressed in my postings do not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research.

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baysider