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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Way of the $XJO

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Lumpy Old XJOehmu24 11-May-12  01:12 am
Archive through August 03, 2011hailoh50 03-Aug-11  12:48 pm
Archive through June 16, 2009rdumas50 16-Jun-09  01:51 pm
         

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gdd3
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Friday, August 05, 2011 - 05:21 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Crunch time did come as pointed out in my chart above(July30th) of the XAO and certainly no "knee-jerk" reaction that a few of us were 'hoping' for. We are fast approaching the Double head and shoulders M/M on both the XAO and XJO(~ 4000) and just wonder if we are going to see the beginnings of a relief rally from these areas.

Well to justify the possibility here are upgraded charts but this time of the XJO to suggest just that.









Dolphin


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ehmu
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Saturday, August 06, 2011 - 01:56 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO way oversold IMO.

It is likely the recent Japanese move on their currency that caused an abnormal drop in XJO. Or maybe that the Australian government follow the socialist stance of much of Europe, holding their currency in an overvalued state.


But........

AUD/JPY (candlesticks on first image) dropped considerably, and XJO (blue line chart on first image)went through the floor.

The upshot imo is that when old lumpy bounces, it will be an impressive one.










_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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gdd3
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 03:05 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ah! Our first signs of a "relief" rally and may be some Institutional buying/short-covering etc. Once our A$ went below parity in they came!




Dolphin


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

It will be interesting to see if it corrects back to the wave range of the previous lower level wave 4 before going into a wave 3.




The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011 - 04:59 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Further to Friday's post...

The upward sloping "yellow" line is holding after XJO "experimented" with the 61.8%/66.7%(Fibo/Gann) retracement levels of the "B"-wave rally. Now what was perceived as possible support zones on the way down should act as barriers back on the way up(see zoomed-in chart) with my guess that today's bounce will probably be capped by the 4175/4185 area...50% on range extension level of our first wave down plus the double lows(May and June 2000 double bottom). I note also that my lower "red" old support trendline and the 50%("B"-wave) retracement levels have acted as the halt to today's rally proceedings. However, we should break above this and move higher but we have unfinished work here(just as the May 2000 spike low was eventually "tested" in June 2000) plus the near-wave structure appears incomplete so expect today's low to eventually be tested.







Cheers
Dolphin

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on May 28, 2012)


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rdumas
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011 - 09:07 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

Just looking at the last leg down and applying the typical Fib levels to it. I would suggest today's initial target will be the 50% retrace level.






From an EW perspective to me it looks like we're in a wave 4 of a larger wave 3. My main issue with that is that from a cycles perspective I was expecting a rally lasting a few weeks to start at around this time frame. Now whether that means that we will get a quick poke up and another quick poke down to complete the pattern or otherwise we may have completed a 3 wave move down from the April high.


It will be interesting to see what the next few days bring us.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011 - 10:16 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



When I posted the top 2 Andrew's Pitchfork(A.P.'s) charts here back on June 16th I was only looking for a bounce from the lower(yellow) circle on the RHS chart within an apparent downtrend. Well it did result in a 200pts bounce but little did I all 3 A.P.'s shown, especially the yellow and blue A.P.'s, were going to prove crucial in identifying the swing low created yesterday.







These two A.P. Charts are just an extension to the above two cahrts and their A.P.'s. Note how the intersection of the 100% extension of both the original yellow and blue A.P.'s(green circle) actually came in at yesterday's low but more significantly(I believe)is that yesterday's close was exactly at the intersection(cream circle) of three A.P.'s(Blue, Pink and new Red) median tyne. And you will see from the long-term charts below(since 2003 low) that this level also coincides with the lower(yellow) tyne and an intermediate tyne of the dark pink A.P.



















All very well in hindsight(a day too late, right) but where too from here. Well if I'm reading these right our next possible swing level on the upside may only be near 4250 level(now a lot of other chart resistance methods will provide this level as well but the A.P. "intersection" method can often provide the timing...give or take a day or two...just like that call back on June 16th!). So the RHS middle chart suggests that could be Aug.18th/21st(Fri./Mon) which would suggest we have to go through a bit of churning between the "faster" pink and blue A.P. tynes...i.e. say 3950 to 4250!

See how she pans out!


Cheers
Dolphin

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on May 28, 2012)


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ehmu
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Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 12:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolpin:

Thanks for the charts.

How do you come up with the multi-tyne pitchforks on your charts ?

best
H


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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ehmu
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Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 01:01 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AUDJPY vs XJO

I just discovered that I can compare symbols on IC.

So here is a comparison of XJO to AUDJPY.

You all would know why the offsets occur when they do, but it is also obvious that the trends and wiggles are in locked step with each other.

At the moment your markets look oversold, or your dollar looks overvalued.









_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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gdd3
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Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 01:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ehmu...

You asked..."How do you come up with the multi-tyne pitchforks on your charts ? ".

The 'grey' intermediate tynes on my IC Charts are manually drawn...a skill I "developed" whilst doing my Bach. of Architecture" degree way back last century I guess!

I do believe **Colin & Co. have the "Andrew's Pitchfork" added to their "List of things to Do" so who knows very shortly we wont have to manually construct A.P's.}

**...Colin, I'll be peeved if the A.P. feature comes B4 my 2004 request of "Cycles and Percentage" request though!


Cheers
dolphin}}}}}}


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billt
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Thursday, August 11, 2011 - 03:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey G

My B.Arch. did not contain any such course on 'intermediate tynes'.....I was obviously at the wrong uni!

Don't tell me you do it with an adjustable set square and T-square!

The mies van der rohe of pitchforks....fantastic stuff.

Colin doesn't need a 'pitchfork app', he needs you with your drawing board and lots of paper, and a 0.18 rotring ink pen...can't beat a 'human app'!

....I'm impressed!



B


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ehmu
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Friday, August 12, 2011 - 01:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin:

Thanks, I was afraid that's what you were going to say.



Wow, and another Archi out of the closet, maybe you and Bill can share the chores on the A.P.--twice the job in halve the tyne.


oll

ps I are lectricull


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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gdd3
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Friday, August 12, 2011 - 11:27 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Great wit Guys(Bill and Ehmu)...brought a welcome smile to a Friday!

Hey, Bill, you know the best things in the world come in "3's"...so along with Mies, I like to think I've inherited a bit of Frank lloyd Wright and Le Corbusier skills as well!

...as for the set square and T-square, although I still have them in my archives somewhere, I upgraded 'recently' and now have a Pentax Drafting machine but my 'rotring' pens I dug out won't work...I think the ink has 'carbonised' in them(always did forget to clean them out after use!).

Finally, FYEO guys, two photos, one of my first day at work in my first job as 'cadet' Architect and the other, my latest photo of a "Master at Work with his Trusty Tools"....
just can't get myself to trust the accuracy of 'dem bl..dy computers'...so I still draw my own charts and calculate on my trusty "D-size" battery run pocket calculator!

Have a great weekend guys!


Dolphin


Me then.........................................................................................................and me now!


.............



(Message edited by colin_twiggs on May 28, 2012)


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ehmu
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Thanks dolphin for the complement.

When you include Bill with me, I am half witty.




_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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gdd3
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These markets are proving rather resilient or are they just getting buyers and short coverers "sucked-in" for the next thump down(to test last Wednesday's range low). Well I'm favouring atm, if we are to see higher prices this week, that we haven't got too much more upside to go.

To illustrate, have a look at the XJO intraday chart below. The question to me seems to be if the 4244, and more particularly 4210, supports can't hold then I would have to favour that we are on our way to minimum of 4060. Even if either of these two supports holds any near-term weakness we probably only have one final thrust up to 4370-4420 area.





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billt
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Trend line snaps and we are off...




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gdd3
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Ah, Bill...you brought another "smile to my dial" ....and its not even a Friday!

Dolphin


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gdd3
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A.P.'s UPDATE....

Long-Term Weekly


Medium-Term Daily



Close-Up



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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

Looks like it's making its way up to either the MBB at 4249.5 or the 61.8% Fib retrace level at 4289.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Well how about that. It got to the MBB but due to today's price action the MBB had been pulled down to 4233.27.

The MBB remains the dominant overhead resistance during this down trend.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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Hi Rudy,

One day doesn't seem to have changed the traders nervous position about going long at these levels...any rallies are quickly quashed ...and you are right that the MBB is one guide.

Trying to find constant means of reliable resistances/supports in volatile markets is nie on impossible BUT there is no harm in trying...well for FUN!?

Hence I offer another means of the "impossible?"....short-term Pitchforks(A.P.'s) with the aid of Seniors. FIBO and GANN to 'add to the puzzle' via my 30min and close-up, 10min charts.







Now, what is interesting, there is a A.P. "rule" that basically states that once an A.P. range has been established then very likely the initial counter direction move will head to the median tine of the A.P. BUT if it falls short ( as in the case of the current pink one at present) and the previous trend resumes the resultant move will very likely exceed the range of that initial downleg. In other words, if we don't reach the mid tine of the pink A.P. on today's selloff from the daily highs soon, we are very likely going to see the XJO take out today's high...if not by today's end early tomorrow.....will that completed the "abcde/12345" diagonal wave2 or B mentioned yesterday on the EW thread.

Cheers
Dolphin}}

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on May 28, 2012)


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

I suspect that we are due for a move down pretty soon after a bit of an overthrow on C.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ken
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New highs today (since August bottom) in XAO,XJO,XTO,XFL,XHJ,XTJ,XUJ

(Message edited by ken on May 01, 2012)


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ehmu
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Where is the smart money re: Australian markets.

Many disagree, but I believe that the smart money, and the big money is in the securities held by the EWA etf on the US markets.

One convincing argument for the disbelievers is that the recent head fake on the Australian markets didn't even break a sweat on EWA.

So, you might ask, "who is the market maiden going to disappoint today". Tuesday it was the bears, wednesday it was the bulls, Thursday it was the bears, friday it was the bulls.

I say this, because price favored the bulls on tuesday, when price stopped just short of a MAJOR support level.

For those of you not cognizant of the impact of 50% retracement levels of price movement; take heed. The 50% retracement of the GFC fall is about $22.60. The 50% retracement of the drop from April 26 2011, is $22.60.

Recent price action constitutes a major argument between the buyers and the sellers.

I believe that the sellers are favored in the outcome of this debate because the RSI is currently below 50%, and the CCI is well below zero.

If you are a big "pig headed" bull; don't get in the way of this one, the outcome will be swift.

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/EWA.htm







_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


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ingot54
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Ehmu ... that second chart belongs in the National Art Gallery.

Unfortunately I couldn't get anything visually from it - your commentary covered the points far better.

EWA


By the way you weren't home when I knocked, and the door was ajar, so I was able to take this pic of your workspace.

Ehmu's Workspace

Just taking the mickey a bit - so don't take it too personally. I respect your good work on the forum.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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ehmu
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Hi there In_got:

Where you been anyways ? I don't recognize your handle photo, but you look a lot alike the uni-bomber.

I'll have to improve my security system I see; don't know how you got in to my home office, very intrusive. The only unfamiliar thing in your picture of my office is my Mona Lisa on the wall with you posing in your youth. Quite ingenious mental trickery on your part.

Will try to improve my charts, or better yet just leave them out all together.

best


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.

- Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy




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ingot54
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Tuesday, May 15, 2012 - 01:01 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No - NO - No Ehmu ... don't stop posting your charts. I've been a constant lurker following your stuff for ages. Just couldn't resist the cheap shot the other night.

Right now I am sitting here listening to old Youtubes of Simon and Garfunkel, and CCR and a couple of Bee Gees, while the Fx markets wind up momentum for the week. There is very little doing right now ... I follow the 4H and dailies mostly, provided they are in tune with the weekly direction.

Your take on the EWA seems to be playing out as read. The withdrawal of capital from both the ASX and AUDUSD today seems well in-keeping with the break-down of the EWA etf price.

Unfortunately in this business it is not possible to follow too many instruments and expect to come out ahead, so I refine my weapons today to just 6 pairs, plus a weather-eye on Oil (WTI) and Gold to give me a "feel" for the investment risk in the air.

I am not familiar with the EWA, so was grateful for your heads-up.

Read an article tonight on Daily Pfennig that questions whether the GBP is the "new safe-haven." When I stopped laughing, I thought ... "Why not?"

Printing money hasn't worked, and JP Morgan is hell-bent on not learning any lessons from the Lehmans / Bear Stearns derivatives collapses. But I guess losing $2bill might help educate them a little.

So why not give the old Sterling a fly, to see if austerity works over printing of money?

If you will allow me to go off-topic a bit, and quote what was said:

The pound is being sought out by investors who are
looking for shelter from the turmoil on the European
mainland. The sterling has appreciated 3.6% this year,
a surprise move considering the poor economic
fundamentals in the UK. The Bank of England has been
flooding the financial markets with sterling in an
attempt to boost the economy, so the appreciation in the
face of all of this liquidity is even more impressive.

But is the recent appreciation in the pound sterling
justified? I hardly think so. The UK economy fell into
its second recession in the first quarter, the first
double-dip since 1975. UK output is almost 4 percent
lower than the peak in 2008 and unemployment is close
to a 16 year high at 8.3%.

Perhaps currency investors are just looking for political
stability, which the UK can provide in contrast to the
European turmoil and the US elections. Prime Minister
David Cameron is sticking to the austerity programs he
instituted after his election two years ago, stating that
deficit reduction is needed to keep interest rates low.

The S&P rating service has affirmed Britain's AAA rating
and stable outlook, a confirmation of Cameron's calls for
further fiscal tightening.

The more traditional safe haven of the Swiss franc hasn't
seen a big rise as the Swiss National Bank has kept its
promise to keep its value tied to the falling euro. So
currency traders have turned to the Pound sterling for
shelter from the European economic storm. As Chuck
pointed out last week, the UK is winning in the 'ugly
contest' in Europe, but I would certainly think there are
some prettier places to park cash..."


Long posts don't get read much, so will cut and run here ...

(Message edited by Ingot54 on May 15, 2012)


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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ingot54
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Tuesday, May 15, 2012 - 01:39 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yeah ... I've had "visitors" since my avatar went into service, but on each occasion I have been able to convince them that I'm not him.

My real dial is even scarier, so we stick with the paroled one. Una-bomber ... he might be!

Sorry I don't have a chart of the XJO to confuse things. But the current resistance of 4298 is proving very hard to break. The brief flurry on 2nd May seemed to me to be the time and place to short this, though as I do not trade it, it was academic.

We are seeing a critical turning point - or a make-and-break point - right here and now.

This might turn out badly.

There is always a bull market in currencies. Major support for AUDUSD is around .9650 but we shall see. I foolishly closed my AUDUSD on Friday ... pre-weekend ... and might have been a little more smug tonight!


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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p3t3
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".....a chart of the XJO to confuse things."

Here ya go :



I can see support at 4240, 4180 & 4140 before things get really ugly.

However, if we're in the sort of sideways market I think we are then support just under 4250 is likely to hold. Price action around that level could be instructive.


just my view
best
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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ingot54
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Thanks p3t3

My mind is in "anything can happen" mode as I ponder the
result of cutting Greece loose from the Eurozone.

Initially I think the markets would go into defensive mode
with the EURUSD falling - perhaps to 1.20 or so.

But then, when the sky doesn't fall, and Greece begins
rebuilding without the restraint of not being "allowed"
to print its way out of trouble a la US Fed Reserve, then
we might also see Spain and perhaps the other PIIGS decide
to jump ... or be pushed.

Only then will be begin to see that the assertion of
Austrian economics over Keynesian, might have been the
better way to go after all ... meaning that once the Eurozone
is free of the dead Albatrosses (with apologies to S.T.Coleridge)
of the most bankrupt nations (though I thought "bankrupt" was
an absolute), a new "Golden Age" of investing might arise
from the ashes of the 2008 derivatives bust.

The Austrian model favours allowing bankrupt banks to bust
and NOT receive bailouts of public money.

The Keynesian model wants to socialise the debt to prevent
a cleansing collapse, through bailing out the weaker banks.

The sky would NOT have fallen in had the collapse been
allowed to occur. The world is better prepared today, and
can marshal whatever is needed to commence rebuilding ...
if there is a will to do it.

This leads us to what the markets might do following any
expulsion of Greece.

Will we begin to see a resurgence of confidence, and a
final surge in our indices - XJO, DJIAA, FTSE100 and so on
around the world?

Or will we see the degree of financial incompetence and corruption
in the USA, emerge as the "new Greece" and the "new Spain"
and the "new Ireland"?

It is all moot of course, but one must be prepared for any
eventuality, and this is just one of them.

In the meantime the XJO does its thing, so keep an eye on it
and be prepared for opportunity.

Just one view ... was wrong once before!


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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ehmu
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Tuesday, May 15, 2012 - 11:28 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Pete:

Thanks for the xjo chart and analysis. Seems quite clear from your description where old lumpy is at the moment.

Still respecting the up trend, so no worries.

In_got (heh, heh, I like the psychotic inference in your handle that you may be some kind of b&e expert). I have a simple minded explanation for the sterling surge. The Brits are the first to back up the Americans in wars, so it doesn't surprise me that it may be the US buying GBP returning some brotherly love.


What was Edison's rule again, wasn't he American too ?


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.

- Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy




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p3t3
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Wednesday, May 16, 2012 - 04:44 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Chart update :



So much for the first two support levels I thought I could "see" - only 4140 remains.....whereupon things really could get quite ugly.

Support levels below are now 4050 and 3980, before October 11 lows around 3860 come into play.


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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kesil
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G'day p3t3

OK..I give in...WTF?

I saw your chart and went whoah...what did I miss?

Then I cranked up the chart on my own freebie/shnorer IC charts and I just don't have that spectacular drop..not even a hint of a tail.

I am looking XJO...yup

I am looking 16 May 2012...yup!

So now I am counting up the glasses of red wine I have just downed.

So what the heck am I doing wrong...what is this chart on my screen? It looks fine and dandy and just what the lines said should be happening.






“Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”
Winston S. Churchill

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msparks
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Kesil
The free charts dont update to todays data till after 12 midnight I think.
I found that out when on holidays using the free charts on my wifes laptop.....very annoying, have to stay up late or get up early to look at the up to date chart

hover over the last candle and look at the bottom of the chart for the day and date

you have yesterdays chart

but its free hey ....lol

JIN dropped 6.16% today from yesterdays close if you are looking on the free charts ....


"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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kesil
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G'day Ms Parks

Thanks for the reply sweety!

According to the guff on the top of the main indices charts for the cheapskate schnorers like me, there is only a 20 minute delay in the price updates.

So you are now saying the IC charts are crap and tell lies?

I hovered and I looked, still OK

Well there you go...ya get what you pay for...LOL :D



As far as JIN is concerned I had really hoped for a better drop. I had already checked it out on its ASX close, I never rely on free information. It is still not reaching down to the support line I had hoped would occur. I don't like a stock rising above its alloted station...if it does that it is setting itself up for a right bloody hammering...like all umptious little smart-arses!

Cheers

Kesil


“Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”
Winston S. Churchill

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kesil
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Thursday, May 17, 2012 - 01:35 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Right...so having established that 20 minute delay on the main indices is pure crap and IC charts lie as suggested by Ms Parks...let's look at the result after midnight.

But first a musical interlude....


After midnight, we're gonna let it all hang down.
After midnight, we're gonna chug-a-lug and shout.
We're gonna stimulate some action;
We're gonna get some satisfaction.
We're gonna find out what it is all about.
After midnight, we're gonna let it all hang down.


OK..enough of d'muckin aboot.


Moving the longer term support to meet up with all the kanga tails which seems to be d'way to d'light these days, we still see a positive outcome..as in don't jump just yet.

(I saw a jumper once...way back in the 80s, very nasty..he turned blue, blood on the footpath, upmarket suburb (Toorak for the Melbourne-ites)..no idea if he lived..doubtful but.) Grammatically is a double parenthesis allowed?




Anyhow I should add a warning, I am a bull/optimist/find good in everything...always looking for the upside.


“Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”
Winston S. Churchill

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colin_twiggs
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Msparks,

No need to wait until after midnight. You can activate a second computer against your subscription. Just contact us with the new UserID.

Kesil,

Thank you for pointing out this undocumented feature. I will alert our development team. Are we going to hear more from you now that Dug/Jaded has left the building?


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rdumas
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If things play out as I anticipate we could get a short term bounce today or tomorrow before eventually bottoming out in this corrective leg end May/early June.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Addendum to Last Post

Strange, I don't appear to have the ability to edit a previous post any more.

As my cycles studies indicate that a bottom to the current correction in the SPX and XJO could occur anytime between now and early June it is of course entirely possible that the next low could in fact be THE LOW of the current correction. That possibility also needs to be kept on the table.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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The XJO today broke through the smaller range 76.4% Fib level and bounced off the larger range 23.6% Fib level.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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kesil
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colin_twiggs wrote on Thursday, May 17, 2012 - 04:35 am:

Thank you for pointing out this undocumented feature. I will alert our development team. Are we going to hear more from you now that Dug/Jaded has left the building?




G'day Colin

Guessed it was just a hiccup with the 20minute delay, eventually.

Geez has Jaded copped d'ban again? Pity, he was good for a laugh...he was easily wound up by the subtle or not so subtle trolls who wander your halls!

Shame though, he seems like a good man being a part time advocate for the needy, not all of us take the time to help the underprivileged even when we have time available. (He mentioned his advocacy work in the back pages some time ago). Added to that I had a real respect for his charting and commentary, he seemed to put a lot of thought and research into his commentaries. I hope he will be allowed back as Jaded, his list of other incarnations was a bit average! Maybe he will resurface as Wounded/Winded! :D

Unlikely I will be chattering a great deal...with or without Jaded, I work very long hours and have little spare time for natter.

As much as I was being cheeky about your charts...I do appreciate them and thank you for making them available..excellent charts!

Cheers

Kesil


“Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”
Winston S. Churchill

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ehmu
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XJO_ax broke 4071 resistance, and backtesting today.

Next station 3951 support.

ps
red line plotted overlay is EWA_us




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.

- Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy




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ehmu
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Correction regarding the support level on the third label.

I incorrectly read the opening price of the candle, rather than the closing price of the candle. The price of the third label is 4152 as per attached chart, not 4105.

Now that price has broken back above the 4071 support level, the target zone is 4152-4171 resistance band.




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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ehmu
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ehmu wrote on Monday, May 21, 2012 - 12:36 pm:

Next station 3951 support.




After price action last nite, we're back to the 3951 target area on the down side.


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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p3t3
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I would commend to everyone's attention the pattern currently unfolding in the Shanghai Index :



This thread might seem like an odd place to post a chart of the Shanghai bourse, but in the eyes of
the international investment community (with some significant justification) what happens
to the XJO is heavily dependant on the outcomes in our (now) largest trading partner - The People's
Republic.

Shanghai is currently showing a third bounce off a (now) quite steeply rising lower boundary of a
triangle which is no longer equilateral but somewhat skewed to the upside. If (big IF) price action
penetrates the upper boundary of the pattern in a convincing manner it would suggest that the
expected "hard landing" that gets so much press coverage is a much lower probability than is
currently being assessed.

Do I really need to labour the point about how important that could be for local equities?

The other side of that trade is that the Index could be in the process of finding its "fair value" level
after the destabilising events in Europe and uncertainties surrounding the leadership change
currently underway in the "Middle Kingdom". In that case the pattern could morph into a broad(ish)
trading range between (say) 2300 and 2500.


just my view
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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ehmu
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Pete:

Thanks for drawing our eye to Shanghai.

Today, we are experiencing one of those wide range days that Randall Ashbourne was predicting for this correction period. I'm thinking of SPX particularly.

What a difference a day makes, with Shanghai going back down to test your rising trend line.

Also, I'm attaching two charts for EWA that more clearly define the Support/resistance for EWA being one in the same downward sloping trend line. Price is currently below the trend line, if it can break above that line then we will have a totally different flavor.

Stawberry flavor would be nice, and it is pink which Elizabeth may enjoy.







_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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p3t3
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Ummmm....que??

My 5 day intraday chart (from Yahoo Finance) is showing the SSEC rising to 2390, confirming the
bounce and suggesting a test of the descending resistance line below 2440 :



Certainly there is resistance at that 2390 level....or from big round 2400 above, but I'm not seeing a
retest of the rising support line.

What is your data source?

best
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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ehmu
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Correction

My chart feed hasn't updated, still showing friday candle.

I'll let them know post haste.

H


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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p3t3
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Doesn't in any way undermine your contention that the Oz equities market is at a decision point :

to be further undermined by the super-duper-slo-mo train wreck that Europe is looking like....and is likely to remain until at least mid-June Greek elections,

or

to get support from the (reported) additional stimulus measures currently being formulated in China.

A broad-ranging, volatile trading-range doesn't seem completely out of the question.


just my view.

best
p3t3


I haven't lost my mind,
I know it's here somewhere.....

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ehmu
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Hi Peter:

Yes, Roger that.

And I just looked at the 4d average true range on the SPX and Rut.

2.2-2.5% on SPX and 2.5-3% on the Russell.

This is significant range, and I expect it to get more intense in the not too distant future.


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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ehmu
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First, I would like a commitment that I'll not be referred to as chicken little on this forum.

Having said that, I encourage everyone not to panic; , but women and children first move quickly towards the exits.

At a minimum, extreme caution is warranted.

I just realized that XJO is diddling with a significant support level (I make it $4028 or there abouts)

The significance of this is that this number is 50% of the recovery price since the GFC.

And it is also 50% of 50% of the GFC draw down. (price being the same as 75% of the GFC correction.)

It is also about to make the third touch of this support, and plus third touch of the descending support line of a bottom megaphone pattern.

It is either a very scary move down coming, or is about to experience an investment run to 4500 minimum. So to be more specific, if the weekly (or monthly)price closes below this 4028 level, batton down the hatches.

I would like to hear "Dolphin" and others weigh in on this one, omit none, including all the fundamental guys and Colin too.

(and btw, never end a sentence with a preposition)






_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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kesil
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G'day Emhu,

I am just fresh from a thread with Hailoh where he looks at stuff through a monthly chart...always think that is a very brave thing to do..however it is a good way to stop the noise.

So let's look at the XJ0 from a long term monthly perspective, looks darn good so far, along with the MACD.

If something looks/smells bad, step back a little!



Namaste'

Kesil


“Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”
Winston S. Churchill

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ehmu
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G'day Kesil:

Thanks for your monthly chart of XJO. You're right, it is kind of like watching the moon move through the sky now.

It takes less adrenalin for sure.


kesil wrote on Friday, June 01, 2012 - 10:11 pm:

If something looks/smells bad, step back a little!




From your comment above, I think that you're suggesting that the MACD positive divergence is a comforting sign for the bulls, did I get that right ?

Definitely not to argue, just to present a slightly different view of the monthly chart (attached in two parts because of the limitations of this message board):

1 There appears to be a possible double top in play.
2 The measured target for the correction is around 3400
3 The sellers capitulation downtrend intersects the long term up trend at approximately 3400.
4 Using the same slope as the GFC crisis, plotting an extrapolated tl from the current price and date approximately intersects the date of the US election (and 3400)
5 I have named 4025 as the breakdown support level in previous posts, so there is still hope for the bulls for a rally from this level(4025), however my opinion remains that a break down from this level will lead to 3400 (as the crow flies---in a pretty straight line).

6 There is some additional potential consolation for the bulls with the W%R approaching oversold on the monthly, but out trumped by the price ta I believe.

7 It is important to stay calm, so if I had any bullish positions on the Australian exchanges, and I wanted to use the monthly charts to decide on direction, a close of the monthly candle below 4025 would be a negative sign to me.

ps
sorry about leaving my cursor in the middle of my charts; not very attractive.







_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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ehmu
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Chicken Little here again

Hi there:

If we are still long XJO stocks, then we're in some difficulty.

The attached hourly chart shows today price breaking down below my 4025, and not just by a smidgen, by quite a bit.

Now, may I say for any of you traders who are prone to resorting to prayer on occasions like this--"don't do it", hanging on may be very costly here.

The reason why it now becomes so difficult for price to break back to the upside is that resistance is now the downward sloping trend line that I have on the chart. This trend line in fact is a depiction of how aggressive the sellers are feeling right now. To be even more clear; the mood of investors is to aggressively sell XJO securities.

From the previous charts I posted here, you can see that potentially, the bottom will be around 3400. That means that when the smoke clears, price could be 15% to 20% below todays price.



safety first kiddies
safe trading





_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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rdumas
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$XJO 4 hour Intraday

Probably time to resurrect my mate Paddy's old stream.

The 4 hour intraday chart of the $XJO below clearly shows the way that the price action has used the Andrews Pitchfork tynes and Fibonacci levels as support and resistance.

It will be interesting to see if the 76.4% Fib level is used as the launch pad to greater heights (as occurred at the 61.8%,50% and 38.2% levels) or whether it breaks down in the near future.









The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rash
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It will be interesting, Rudy.

We all seem to be waiting for Ben to emerge from his Hole.

Auntie has lost the uptrend line on the 50 CCI troughs ... though she did recover it once before.

4

The real problem is the 50% barrier of last year's decline ... 4371.

If the current 764 can hold - and 4371 get broken - it's Hello, 4516.

Canary on the weekly suggest good odds. If one could view Auntie in isolation from the 500.

w


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rash
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A clearer close-up of the weekly chart, if it helps.

Ciao - RA

w2


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rdumas
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Hi Rash,

I'm assuming that the moving averages on your last chart are the Idiot MAs. I note that whilst the Idiot MAs are on a buy on the weekly chart, the daily MA's have recently gone to a sell.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rash
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Yup!

There's conflict.

And as hard as it is to believe that los Yanquis will really go back into Bubbleville (further than already!), both the weekly and monthly portents on Auntie suggest there'd be no real surprise in an upside breakaway.

Despite the lowness of the Price, the height of the monthly CCI peak mirrors the entrails from the Weekly; downtrend line has been broken ... and August is holding Support.

Ciao - RA

m


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rdumas
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In the 4 hour time frame, the $XJO still appears to be holding support at the 76.4% Fib level and the lower boundary of the rising channel is looming.

If there is to be a move I suspect that it may come today.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Correction to the previous post. As can be seen on the chart, it was a 2 hour chart not a 4 hour chart.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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$XJO Update


The price action on the $XJO (4 hour chart) finally broke down through the 76.4% Fib level and is working it's way to the 200% tyne of the Andrew's Pitchfork. The alternate destination may be the 61.8% Fib level as suggested in a much earlier post.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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How about that. The price action bounced off the 200% AP tyne.

Now to see if the 76.4% Fib level changes from support to resistance.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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In spite of a strong negative lead from Wall Street, the XJO clung to the 200% tyne of the Andrew's Pitchfork. We continue to wait and observe whether the 76.4% Fib level acts as resistance on the way up or not.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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longshanks
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S&P 500 Monthly
Shanghai Composite
XJO Monthly

Who's up for a market meltdown?


The simple things in life are often the best.

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ingot54
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QEI and QEII effected rallies in the S&P500, but will QEIII be able to achieve the same? It's a good question, because I think the phrogge is beginning to realise the water is getting warm, and is finally becoming active with the kind of restlessness that may startle the restaurateur.

Imho, the market is yawning a bit - gold hic-cupped its way to +/-$USD1780 ... and back, and the day is dawning for Europe, in a relative sense, given that the crisis in US debt - ie the unsustainability of debt-to-GDP is getting more press these days than I have seen ever.

Will the market swallow more of Bernanke's magic medicine? After all, they may reason, his first two remedies did squat for the GFC, and some of the brighter students of the Bond market class are beginning to talk about some game somewhere being "up."

Further, is the "stimulus" going to be as much as previously or more than previously? The market is beginning to give its verdict - in a word ... unsure. We have US unemployment data coming to us from a gilded source ( the BLS - Bureau of Labour and Statistics) and on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, there are Employment date being released that "might" move the markets.

I am holding my gold longs and EURAUD shorts for now, and only the dawning of the day on Saturday can vindicate my judgement on that - I am getting the pheeling that I am now a part of a changing ball-game, and I dislike the new rules.

Whatever ... it is going to be a very big week in the markets, as all the majors have red-hot impact news to feed us, not the least of which will be our own CPI and RBA cash rate and statement.

Your charts resonate with my views, Longshanks, and it is becoming clearer that the market has been conned by the lovely figures produced by China's economist, guided by their elite political masters. Indeed, the article below includes charts that offer an inconvenient proof that the opposite is the case - the China bubble exceeded its ability to expand further a little while back, and has been propped against the same wall as the US bubble.

Shanghai Composite Daily

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com, and Colin's good grace.

The only bubble left is debt, and the market is awake to it now, imho, and we may see some volatility as those who can, deleverage as rapidly as they can, while others less aware may see it as opportunity to get in at better prices.

Cutting losses and running is still the best way.

http://www.thedailybell.com/4367/Is-China-Burning

Enjoy the charts.

I wanted to add the charts and a bit of an angle from Money Morning, and the Australian Daily Reckoning, but readers can Google these things for themselves, and search the archives, if they want further info of the "Awakening" of markets.

Please note (offtopic) that daylight saving ended on 30th Sept and some overseas markets will be affected.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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ehmu
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ingot54 wrote on Sunday, September 30, 2012 - 05:05 pm:

Cutting losses and running is still the best way.




Hi Ingot:

Thanks for the great discussion regarding "the rules have changed".

The rules have definitely changed from 4-5years ago.
_______________________________________________________

Phase 1:

Please allow me to present an oversimplification, that almost sounds too simple to have worked for the American government.

Five years ago, everyone in the world was required to buy $us (using the then current currency conversion) to purchase most goods that they wanted to import. This is because almost all exporting countries recognized $US as something that wouldn't default---so like a certified cheque was a very certain method of compensation.

Many (if not all) countries also borrowed money from the US in order to advance their standards of living, and were required to repay their debt per annum in $us (and to hold in their treasuries as collateral---$US). In order to repay their debt in $us, they had to buy $US at the then current currency conversion rates.

This $US based world commerce has it's way of compounding at a very significant rate due to the high demand of $US.
___________________________________________________________
Phase two:

People are no longer able to service their debts (debts to whom---three guesses). This brings about a debt crisis threatening the lordship of the US.

The US then prints enough money to double or triple the number of dollars in the world, but the dollars will only have a value of 0.30 cents in the debt markets---which means that debt will be repaid at a discount, but will be cleared three times sooner. (providing of course if individual countries can inflate their currency fast enough to accumulate $US faster than the rest of the world)

__________________________________________________________

Phase 3:

All of the surfs in surf-dom finally realize that the value of their currency against the $US has taken them out of a competitive position for their exports even though they can purchase more $US to pay for imports. In order to make their trade balance healthy again, they need to print more money so that they have a surplus of native currency to purchase a disproportionate quantity of $US. By following the lead of the US, by making their exports cheaper for others to buy, and giving them more purchasing power on world markets by using their newly cheaply acquired $US (more quickly than the rest of the world).

__________________________________________________

and around and around we go

_____________________________________________________

There are no rules in a knife fight---"kick 'em in the gonads"


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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ingot54
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Thanks Ehmu.

This is going to end badly.

What does Keynes suggest to do about hyperinflation?

What would Keynes do to get out of a war?

Just wondering - I have three sons of "soldier age" and I'd like more grand-kids.

If necessary, I can throw rocks!

I'm Ready

I'm ready.

Why are we allowing these people to do this?
Any thoughts?

How would you feel if I went into politics, and became the minister for the Army (for example) when I have no idea about the military?

Why then do we have people in portfolios who have an equal idea of what they are doing ... ie NO IDEA!

Yet their actions can and do, affect billions of people!

(Message edited by Ingot54 on October 01, 2012)


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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gamefisherman
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Protect your capital and the rest will take care of itself with a solid trading plan that is adhered to every trade (PS THIS IS WRITTEN TO KEEP REMINDING ME TO STAY FOCUSSED AND FORGET NOISE)PPS Dont just trade the trend....STAY in the trend....

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ehmu
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ingot54 wrote on Monday, October 01, 2012 - 09:05 am:

I can throw rocks




You could try "stowing thrones", instead, that would work better.

But if you live in a grass house, don't stow thrones.


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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gdd3
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GF...

Your assessment may be correct; the rising, and bounce from 0%, TMF could prove compelling near-term.

However, when "zooming-in"(2Hourly Charts)on the XJO highlights 1stly the current A.P. resistances seems to be controlling any upside in recent times including today's high. Note how the (red)'bearish' A.P., created from the upswing range back in Mar.to May...start point from the Jan.27th swing high(not shown), is still dominating minor range swings, particularly in recent times. Our last upleg went from the med.tyne(MT) to the outer tyne(OT) and now, in the very short-term, we are locked in between the upper intermediate tyne(UIT) and the outer tyne. The purple 'bullish' A.P. is assisting us as well and as long as we remain above its MT in the short-term all is well for a possible break-out above the red OT....you would think. However, as we have had numerous attempts to breakout above the red OT, together with the fact that moves above the MT of the purple have failed to reach its UIT, I would suggest this market is about to "roll-over" very soon. Sorry that the chart is so "fuzzy" but I had to reduce a large original to the I.C. acceptable format.





In addition, and secondly(on my next chart), I am wary the XJO could be playing out a bearish Wolfe Pattern...sure, within this pattern atm there is still room for higher prices S/T as pt.5 is probably/possibly not in place yet( but it could be at today's high). Once this is confirmed then I'd be planning to see weakness over the next 3/4 weeks back towards the "target line"(shown in blue). This pattern is generally pretty reliable(once confirmed)so I'd be watching for failure from current levels or more ideally from a false breakout above the pt.1 to pt.3 projection line(i.e. for a higher pt.5). Either way, I see limited upside from here and favour the Bear is about roar.




Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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G'day Dolphin,

There is no doubt that the global fundamentals are bad. But then they have been bad for a long time now and the share market has continued to live in fairy land, especially the US market. Ours has been a bit more sensible but technically speaking, I haven't seen anything to indicate a crash of any kind at present. Naturally enough, if Israel bombs Iran or some other significant global event occurs then the technicals may turn sour really fast.

There are certainly technical indications that suggest that we may be getting to some heavy overhead resistance pretty soon. The MACD isn't too bad at present and we have broken through a reasonably significant descending red trend line which could cause some bulls to feel that there may be some opportunities coming. We are also fractionally above the 50% point of control level which again is mildly bullish. This level has provided some pretty solid overhead resistance in the past and this level will probably be important for some time yet. To be really bullish, the index would need to break through the upper boundary of that green contracting triangle and then convincingly break through the 61.8% Fib level. It is obvious that this level will present some more stiff overhead resistance. Until it does this then in my view the trend will remain with a medium to longer term downward bias and the best that traders can hope for is a continuance of the sideways moving market that we've suffered for the last 12 months.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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ingot54 wrote on Monday, October 01, 2012 - 09:05 am:

This is going to end badly.

What does Keynes suggest to do about hyperinflation?




Ingot:

The attached link (about 35minutes) discusses the severity of the current accelerating destruction of capitalism.

Critical thinkers, like most of the participants on this web site, wouldn't have believed that this could happen in a thousand years.

There are no quick answers in this video, but a clear analysis by a respected authority on the subject. This is not just a rant; but one might think so because the situation is so grave.

IMHO, the situation is so far out of wack, there is no guessing where it might go, when it will go there, or what will trigger a shift in direction.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=I3AKiWGawGs#!


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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gdd3
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See if this may mean we will "run out of steam" for the moment...

Timing Observations from attached XJO Weekly....

....270wks from 2007 all-time High

... 90wks from 2011H(April)

... 199wks from 2009L(come Monday it will be exactly 200wks)

... 2007H to 2009L = 73wks AND 2011L(Aug) to now = 73wks

... 2010H(April) to tomorrow = 141.4wks and XJO at 4742 we will be 2 x 141.4pts(282.8) below the 2010H at 5025.10. 141 and 144 are strong Gann Timings for the XJO and many other Indicies. Of course, 141.4 is the Sq.Rt of 2.







Cheers
Dolphin


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ken
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This message was also posted on Our Daily Bread.

Hi Rudy, Ody, members,

I have been concerned for the last month or so about the market. In 2007 from about June my trading systems were not working; there were breakouts that I bought which were normally successful and they all fell back, and the same is happening now.

I note that the RSI(14) of XAO is 84.5 today. It hasn't been this high since 1993. We just had a blowout day of over 1% on the market, and many small stocks are falling.

The emerging companies index XEC (stocks between 350th and 650th largest on the market) fell 0.6% while the large stocks took off.

Looks like a potential market top to me, combined with a Elliott Wave pattern suggesting the same.

I took some cream off the big gaining stocks in my super fund today (MTU, AHE, CDA), and also scaled back to only one of my trading systems, selling stocks from the other two.

I am interested in anyone's advice on something I have been straining over - the stocks in my super fund have been mostly bought 6-12 months ago for good dividend levels but I have made more in price gain than the potential dividends are worth even with franking. Being a trader normally, I still have training wheels on regarding investing longer term.

With these stocks they often fall by more than the dividend plus franking after going ex-dividend.
Should I sell now or hold if I believe that the market is topping? And If I sell some but not all, should I sell the losers or the winners?







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ingot54
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Great question Ken, even though I am surprised someone of
your experience has posed it.

I trade Forex exclusively today, and have learned a
valuable lesson about taking profits.

I take setups hoping for a long trend, but the market does
what it does, and those trends either last, or they falter.

I found that while I was waiting for the trends to really
get underway, most of them didn't go far. And I constantly
found myself giving back whatever I had made, as winners
turned into losers.

I eventually worked out that I needed to take money off the
table if I was happy with that bit of profit, and look
around for another set up.

In short - "Keep Smiling ~ Don't Look Back"

On the scale you might be trading in your SMSF, could you
liquidate your portfolio quickly enough to avoid massive
slippage/discounts, when everyone else is also rushing for
the exits?

The point I want to make is this: When the signals tell you
the markets are toppy - listen to them.

You might be the first through the door ... you might be a
bit early and leave a couple of % on the table as the
rallies continue ... but is that preferable to taking a 15%
haircut when everyone else also recognises what you are
seeing, and gets out before you can?

Forex trading is by nature mostly short term - ie a few
days to a week for most retail traders. That is quite
different to trading equities.

But the principles of locking in profits are exactly the same.

If what your are saying is what I think you are thinking,
then sell now, and take a holiday.

If you are wrong, there will be opportunities when you get back.

Trust your judgement. You said yourself that you have made
more in growth than you had planned to make through dividends.

What are you waiting for?

For you, what is the carrot, and what would represent the stick?

I hope it works out for the best for you.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead

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