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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Way of the $AORD

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paddy
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Friday, September 04, 2009 - 02:24 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy / Eugenio / Baysider : While waiting the rains from Jimena [ now tropical storm] and news of more deaths and school closings due to H1N1 influenza cases I thought I'd have a go at your ORD.

I see same story as the SPX. Upside may not be finished . In short term now at the "scatter rug".The main "rug" appears to be at or near 4056.


$AORD Daily Chart 9022009 - Rug Detail



In the big picture either the upside is completed or there is still more upside if the blue TRL is valid. If so then 5279 is the ultimate target before the upside of the "rally" is completed.



$AODR Daily Chart 9032009




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peterloh
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Wednesday, September 23, 2009 - 11:15 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The XAO completed the 3rd down day, with a doji. Every man and his dog is expecting a pull back, but will it and by how much? This is the rising 3 in the candlestick pattern. The XAO chart remains as bullish as ever. The end of the month will also be the 3rd quarter where a lot of window dressing is taking place.On top of this employers have to pay in the compulsory superannuation together with the employees salary sacrifice.Meanwhile, cautious money on the side lines are beginning to realise they have missed the boat!Everything looks positive, however the share market remains very unpredictable it can react very differently.So enjoy it while we can and remain alert.








-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Saturday, October 03, 2009 - 11:16 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I don't believe I am breaking any copyright by putting up an article that I have just received. The article is from a weekly & daily email I receive from FN Arena. Full credits provided below.



Weekly Insights From The FNArena News Desk
Thursday, 1 October 2009 - This email was originally sent to paying subscribers on Monday, 28 September




Source: FNArena


Bring Back The Seventies?

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, editor FNArena

Market commentators and investors who believe the share market is an accurate leading indicator would have had a tough time in the sixties and seventies.

As I steadfastly point out in my live presentations, the eighteen years between 1964 and 1982 saw many rallies, some of 50% and more. While some would last several years, at the end of the ride, share markets were back where they were in the first half of the sixties.

That era ended less than thirty years ago. It ultimately gave way to a period of strong share market gains in the lead up to the 1987 crash. Then came the banking crisis in the US and the recession Australia had to have in the early nineties. Didn't someone say that bull markets always climb a wall of worry?

There is a reason why I open this week's analysis with a reference to the sixties and seventies. Many comparisons with past crises have been made and referred to over the past eighteen months. Most would have been in relation to the thirties or to the two lost decades for Japan. Both cases represent history's worst case scenarios.

I also spotted plenty of references to the early nineties (which admittedly had many similarities with today's situation because it all started with US banks), but references to the sixties and seventies remain rather rare.

I find this strange because the 1960/70s have a lot in common with the two worst case scenarios: the period brought us many rallies, of 50% and more, and some would last for multiple years, yet the end result proved much milder than the thirties and the Japanese L: in the end the share market simply hadn't advanced.

This remains a much better proposition than what happened in the two worst case examples.

For the record: I don't know whether what is happening in global share markets today marks the start of a new bull market - but neither does anyone else, or Mr Market, for that matter.

What I do know, however, even though I am too young to bring any first-hand memories to the table, is that market commentators and experts in the 1960/70s would have declared the bear market is over, on many occasions, simply because shares had rallied so far and for so long - similar to what is happening today.

There's only one thing we know with 100% certainty: the previous downward correction ended in March this year. We don't know yet whether the present rally will ultimately give in to a new correction lower, or that all this is in fact the start of a new era similar to the decades in between the forties and the sixties and in between the eighties and the new millennium.

Those were the years that "time in the market" would beat "trying to time the market", which is the opposite of what we experienced in between October 2007 and March this year.

The past seven months have displayed more similarities with the good times from the past. This has brought back general optimism and risk appetite in the markets. Yet the 1960/70s show us it is dangerous to draw conclusions on the basis of market movements, even if the rally lasts seven months, while pushing markets higher by 50% or more.

I'd argue we don't know whether this is the real McCoy, because there is a good chance the final outcome of this crisis, including all the government stimulus and new regulations, hasn't been created yet.

All this, however, is not necessarily bad news for investors. In fact, if the seventies show us one thing, it is that the present rally can still last much longer. And I am talking about much, much longer.

One period that appears very similar to what we have experienced since 2007 covers the years 1973-1975. In between early 1973 and the third quarter of 1974 share markets corrected by more than 50%. The process took seven quarters, or about 21 months. This time around the correction took less than six quarters only, but the total damage was pretty similar.

Guess what happened next? Six months of very strong gains - similar to what we've seen since March.

I bet you would all like to know what happened next?

Next came six months of consolidation, during which small gains were booked, followed by a strong final quarter of 1975, followed by a period of smaller gains. All in all, the Australian share market managed to book gains for seven consecutive quarters since leaving the trough behind in 1974.

Probably no coincidence the years 1975 and 1976 are still regarded some of the best in modern music history, generating all-time classics such as Wish You Were Here by Pink Floyd, Hotel California by the Eagles, Oxygene by Jean Michel Jarre and Station to Station by David Bowie. Fleetwood Mac's Rumours was released in 1977, but the songs were recorded the year before.

After that came a lost year and shares only started to rally again, while holding on to their gains, in early 1978. From then onwards, however, some really big rallies took place and they ultimately took the share market back to where it had been in 1973, and beyond.

It is a tempting thought, but were the 1973-1978 years to repeat this time around, it would take the share market another four years to make up for all the losses recorded between late 2007 and March this year.

As far as the present dangers and uncertainties go, imagine the wall of worries that had to be climbed in the seventies: uncontrollable inflation, high interest rates, two times a major oil shock, military wars in the Middle East and in Asia, constant tensions between the US and the Soviet Union...

As far as bear and bull markets are concerned, these are long-term concepts. Who would have thought US share markets had entered a bear market in the late nineties? Since then we've had many years of strong gains, and in between there were two periods of major corrections that ultimately pulled US markets back to where they were in the nineties.

Similarly, we will only know when a new bull market phase has commenced in earnest in hindsight.

My best advice to long term investors thus hasn't changed: look for companies that pay sustainable dividends and also manage to post profit growth over the years. It just so happens that research done by others confirms these companies consistently outperform the market in the long run, regardless of whether we see a repeat of the seventies or not.

This story was originally published on 28 September, 2009.


The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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hershy
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Friday, October 30, 2009 - 06:26 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What now brown cow ?
This is what I see on the XAO chart today.
Inverted H&S the crossed the neckline in July was just a few single digits short of reaching it's target. For all intents and purposes it can be assumed that the target has been reached. (Blue a - b)
The XAO has now produced the left shoulder and head of an other H&S, this time targeting an area below trend support.The right shoulder is just like legendary "other shoe" (Red c-d)
The high of red c is the start for a 3 wave move down which also points to the same target.
MACD has been showing a bearish divergence for a while now and it has now moved south of the zero line.




The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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baysider
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Friday, October 30, 2009 - 08:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hershy
I logged on to raise the question was a H&S being formed with neckline at 4,575 - you've eloquently shown what I also see. That's not to say there isn't a trip back up to 4800 or so first that you may or may not wish to participate in.


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hershy
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Saturday, October 31, 2009 - 10:30 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sp what was it that you wanted me to participate in Baysider ?

There is no reason to believe that THIS top will not be like the last one with a downward sloping neckline:




I still see 4000 being revisited. This is but one look into the future:








The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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baysider
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Saturday, October 31, 2009 - 03:21 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The chart below is what I was looking at Hershy, ie left shoulder and head formed with neckline at around 4750. I thought the right shoulder might continue up to 4800 before the descent to complete the pattern. After last night that would seem unlikely!

xao


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hershy
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Baysider,
I was referring (smugly) to your invitation to partake in the next leg up.
In hind site, it is easy to make comments like mine. I too was expecting the DOW - and hence the ASX to follow the direction set by the previous night in the US - up. But only short term.
I have been convinced by the talking heads I've seen that the correction, as Colin puts it "is looming".
Anyway, if this is wave 1 of 3, we can hopefully predict where wave 3 will end as soon as wave 1 is completed.


The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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hershy
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Tuesday, November 17, 2009 - 08:40 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Has anyone else noticed that the H&S scenario I suggested earlier seems to be playing out ?

Is there a real danger lurking around the corner ?
Will the left shoulder complete or will we have another scallop ? The double top formed today is rather scary !




The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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bib
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Hi Hershy,
XAO looks very weak short term. TMF shows selling pressure, a recent short term bearish parabolic cross and no matter how hard it tries the SP just cannot seem to be able to drag itself above the mid line of the standard deviation channels. I think the run may have hit the wall.
Time for me to closely monitor my trades.



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dydavo
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$XAO looks like it is back to resistance in a downtrend. No sign of the US Indices near starting an uptrend yet. I will be selling quite a few AX stocks to take small profits on Monday 30th. It's a battle, but 2-3% for the month will do.









David
Momentum trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dydavo
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Thursday, May 03, 2018 - 11:43 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rightio. Resources, IT stocks with good Feb 18 EPSG reports, and USD earners leading the way out of the downtrend channel.




David
Momentum trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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