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Sovereign Debt Risk

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Spaincolin_twiggs29-Apr-10  06:28 am
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colin_twiggs
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Username: colin_twiggs

Post Number: 577
Registered: 06-2009

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Tuesday, April 27, 2010 - 01:05 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




quote:

we found a recent update written by United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) to be particularly instructive. The update noted the US's budget deficit equivalent to 9.9% of GDP in 2009 ..... and stated that without significant policy changes the US government would soon face an "unsustainable growth in debt".

This was not news to us. It goes on to state, however, that using reasonable assumptions, "roughly 93 cents of every dollar of federal revenue will be spent on the major entitlement programs and net interest costs by 2020." ......In less than ten years, using reasonable assumptions, there will essentially be no money left to run the US government - 93% of all tax revenues the US government collects will go to pay social security, Medicare, Medicaid and the interest costs on their national debt.




Weakness Begets Weakness: from Banks to Sovereigns to Banks
By: Eric Sprott & David Franklin
Sprott Asset Management


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colin_twiggs
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Post Number: 579
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010 - 05:15 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




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However, even after economic and financial conditions have returned to normal, in the absence of further policy actions, the federal budget appears set to remain on an unsustainable path. A variety of projections that extrapolate current policies and make plausible assumptions about the future evolution of the economy show a structural budget gap that is both large relative to the size of the economy and increasing over time. Moreover, as debt and deficits grow, so will the associated interest payments, an obligation that in turn further increases projected deficits. Unfortunately, we cannot grow our way out of this problem. No credible forecast suggests that future rates of growth of the U.S. economy will be sufficient to close these deficits without significant changes to our fiscal policies.




Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, Washington, D.C.
April 27, 2010







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colin_twiggs
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Post Number: 583
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Thursday, April 29, 2010 - 06:22 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




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The prospect of contagion sweeping through European sovereign debt markets intensified Wednesday after Spain's sovereign rating was downgraded by Standard Poor's Corp., triggering a selloff of Italian government bonds. The move came a day after S&P cut Greek debt to junk status and pulled Portugal down two notches.




Greek Rescue Plan Seen Topping 100 Billion
By ANDREA THOMAS, NINA KOEPPEN and GEOFFREY T. SMITH
Wall Street Journal


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colin_twiggs
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Post Number: 589
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Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 10:21 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




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Our projections of public debt ratios lead us to conclude that the path pursued by fiscal authorities in a number of industrial countries is unsustainable. Drastic measures are necessary to check the rapid growth of current and future liabilities of governments and reduce their adverse consequences for long-term growth and monetary stability.




Bank for International Settlements
The future of public debt: prospects and implications
by Stephen G Cecchetti, M S Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli


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colin_twiggs
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Post Number: 590
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Tuesday, May 04, 2010 - 10:35 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




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An alternative to traditional spending cuts and revenue increases is to change the promises that are as yet unmet. Here, that means embarking on the politically treacherous task of cutting future age-related liabilities. With this possibility in mind, we construct a third scenario that combines gradual fiscal improvement with a freezing of age-related spending-to-GDP at the projected level for 2011....... Given its severity, the result is no surprise: what was a rising debt/GDP ratio reverses course and starts heading down in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. In several others, the policy yields a significant slowdown in debt accumulation. Interestingly, in France, Ireland, the United Kingdom and the United States, even this policy is not sufficient to bring rising debt under control.




BIS Working Paper 30
The future of public debt: prospects and implications
by Stephen G Cecchetti, M S Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli


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bib
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Post Number: 185
Registered: 04-2007

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 09:11 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting article. Tips more Euros will be printed.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm







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bib
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Post Number: 186
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Another interesting article on the Bailout.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/merk/2010/0511.html

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