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Current State of the Markets commentary...

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spdfgh
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Friday, October 19, 2018 - 08:31 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What some are saying: MARCUS PADLEY
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/significantly-cashing-up-the-portfolios


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bib
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Friday, February 01, 2019 - 07:45 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I follow the SPX as what happens with that index in terms of big moves happens everywhere else.
I enjoy reading Colin's weekly/Saturday reports. Makes the complicated seem simple. Good fundamental and technical analysis.
No matter how hard I try I keep adding more indicators to my charts.
This current bull run has stumbled in 2011 and 2015. The current stumble has been the biggest and longest starting in early 2018. Is this just the market having a rest after a big run since the 2015 stumble?
Whenever the 26 month MACDH falls below 0 and stays red its a warning. This is just a warning as it happens in corrections as well.
I guess its better to be safe than sorry as probabilitie tend to the direction the longer term is currently pointing towards.







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spdfgh
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Saturday, February 02, 2019 - 12:59 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So far I see nothing to be alarmist about. You might expect (by TA terms) that a 50% retracement might be a healthy thing?

All Indexes charts are contained within upward trend channels, and so do the majority of ASX large caps.

This weeks sudden burst of ASX small cap prices indicates confidence for the medium term IMO.
It seems amazing how an overbought market state and resulting correction to normalised trend lines has the media reporters claiming RECESSION RECESSION!

One of the few things that will tip things that way would be a large rise in unemployment rates, which for Australia seem to be at an all time high right now (so maybe a correction there also?).

House prices are also following overbought trends by correcting.









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bib
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Saturday, February 02, 2019 - 03:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yep, it may well be the market just taking a breather as it did in 2011 and 2015.
Its been taking a breath since early 2018.
Will not know until we can look in hindsight.
As a rule markets correct down as a result of being overvalued whereas markets crash as a result of a bad economy. The US economy is still running ok but is the market still overvalued????? I do not know.
I am not sure where the market will go but I notice from your 260 week MACD indicator that when the MACD turn down it tends to keep going until it crosses its signal line. The DOW is well above its signal line and has turned down. SPX similar and the XJO has already crossed down.
This may mean we are in for a bit more market stress?? Wait and see.
I am retaining my personal holdings and will add should we see any major weakness. My Super has been moved from aggressive growth to Conservative Balanced. Getting back into growth after a market plunge can boost the Super no end. Only 3/4 months ago most commentators were saying all was good and Rates would continue rising, etc, etc. The Fed is clearly intimidated by the market whether this will come back to bite?
Cheers, Bid


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spdfgh
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Saturday, February 02, 2019 - 06:19 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



According to Garry Stone we are merely 1/3 the way through through a secular bull market cycle that should probably run until 2026 - 2030.
As long as there are no major (>20%) retracements it should be good as gold!

https://pages.sharewealthsystems.com/video-1?vimeo_id=296994705&utm_source=swsbl og&utm_medium=web


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spdfgh
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Saturday, February 02, 2019 - 07:36 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



RE the MACD LT 120/260/90 Weekly on a monthly chart:
Also consider the MACD 120/260/90 Daily on the monthly for faster turning signals.
I primarily read the MACD not so much for the MA line positions, although they are the talismans, read the Histogram as the main indicator.
The dips and lower highs off the histogram form a terrific signal system:





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bib
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Sunday, February 03, 2019 - 08:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes, thanks spdfgh, I just go with the flow - try not to predict as I usually get that wrong. Markets are up or flat around 70% of the time so probabilities overall with the bulls until the market says otherwise.
While the histogram on your MACDH is above zero and green/rising no stress for the bulls. Turns red above zero and falls etc means a little anxiety.
I also use Stoch/RSI 24 and 60 month indicator to gauge Index strength. At the moment they indicate that the SPX is still struggling in that in relation to its long term range the RSI has broken down a bit. Hence I am a little conservative at the moment as opposed to outright bearish. As you say the economy is good. The question is whether stocks remain overvalued???
I am also a big fan of the MACD because like RSI its reasonably reliable simply because they are so widely used.
I will try the timeframes you use on MACD.
Thanks for the Gary Stone link.
Saw a break of the Chand Long exit 22/3 month recently. This in not common.


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bib
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019 - 07:33 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Every overhead gap in the History of US equities has been filled - eventually. Except for two.
We have an unfilled gap on the SPX just ahead at 2724 from 6/2/19.
At the high on 3/10/18 we have a gap to fill at 2921. When will it be filled? It does give encouragement to those holding at the moment and gives us something to look forward to.
Plenty on the net concerning the Equity curve, had a read over the weekend. Seems we need to see a dip below zero before we can start thinking market plunges and recessions. Even then the lead time from inversion to downer can be quite long. Eg, the first inversion happenned 21 monhs before the 2007 market peak - that is not the norm as its usually not that long. However it pays to watch the market very closely once we get the inversion.
Market positives include low interest rates, growing company profits etc. RSI 14 month is slightly positive after briefly going slightly bearish in December, similar rebound to 2010, 2011 and 2016 about to happen?
Nearly 8% in January. Does not leave heaps of fat for the rest of the year especially if Feb/March turns out ok. Hmmmm, there is always that sell in May thing?.
Negatives are still bearish standard MACDH month. Could change and will if the rebound follows through.
Stoch/RSI 14 month is still bearish. The RSI measures the speed and change of price movement. December/Jan were so fast it was almost a blur!!! The Stochastic basically reflects the consistence with which price closes near its high or low.
The STOCH/RSI basically is just a measure of where the RSI is in relation to its high and low over the range. So right now the RSI has lost is strenght. Bulls will be looking for a recovery like 2010, 2011 and 2016. What a recovery from 2016 - STOCH/RSI was at a 100 for the 12 months prior to the Dec'18 falls. No wonder it fell so much!!.
Anyway i have no idea where the market will go from here except that it is a sure thing the gaps in the SPX mentioned will be filled in time.


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bib
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019 - 09:46 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SPX - 2 recent gaps below to fill. 2718 and 2758. I would be surprised if these gaps were not filled at some point - when??
SPX gap above from 3/10/18 at 2921. Could take some time to fill. But there has never been an over head gap that has not been filled on the SPX.
SPX in resistance zone.
XAO - Looks like a short term negative divergence could potentially be setting up. Wait and see. Short term indicators not very reliable - except in hindsight. Will follow general direction of US markets but like the little kid will be all over the place - as usual.


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bib
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Saturday, March 02, 2019 - 03:48 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The SPX is interesting. The long term trend IMO is now back to up but the strength of the long term trend is still weak ie, has Bearish undertones. See the chart attached. Long term Stoch/RSI is bearish but is gaining strength. If it turns down while in bearish territory it does not bode well for the market.
Despite that in the meantime IMO the Long term trend says its ok to be long. But knowing that the underlying strength of the trend is weak stay alert. Basically the Stoch/RSI tells how the current strength of the RSI ranks in the chosen range.
So its been weak since Jan'18.
Fortunately the Bears tell us when they are lurking. Its just that most do not want to see the signs. That is why the hardest money to manage is your own!
I guess its a matter of picking some indicators you like and using to them lighten on equities at certain points and reload if they recover.
Anyway will be interesting over the next month or two.



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bib
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Sunday, March 31, 2019 - 10:41 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



End of month chart still looks bullish. Long term monthly MACDH in negative territory but increasing with 2 successive green bars. Long term Stoch/RSI in bearish territory but while its pointing up the market is ok. Just means the long term trend is tired and is likely on its last run. Its last run can last quite a while - see 1998- 2000. Also this long run from 2009 has seen the bulls have a decent rest in 2010, 2011, 2015 and 2018. This seems more than past bull runs. Its just keeps being re energised. It will eventually konk out but could be a while yet.
Chand Exits monthly and weekly bullish. Unlike with stocks these work a treat in the indexes as they keep you in as long as possible (indexes spend 75% of the time travelling north).
The Chand Exit 22/3 WEEK will start this month over 200 points below the April open. This usually means see will see a pullback soon. The 22/3 wk can keep you in for a long time but its not usually this far from price.
Markets sometimes have a terrific run before falling over. If we see some unbelievable moves then get suspicious.


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bib
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Tuesday, April 02, 2019 - 09:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Closing in on the SPX gap at 2921 from the 3/10/18. That was around the last highs. I think we will get there fairly soon. Yesterdays gap up from 2836 needs to be filled (down from here) as well.

Every Bull is always different its just that the end result is always the same.
What is different this time:
The level of awareness and financial/market education of the general public is higher than ever before. Won't help because investing is an art not a science and the experts all have different opinions which confuses the 'educated' public no end.
Cental bank interventions has never been so prolific. Prolongs the bull but its really just an ever expanding black hole sucking in money. Alternitively its just the biggest ponzi scheme ever seen. But its been a great ride so far as long and will continue as long as the coins keep getting fed into the slot.


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bib
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Sunday, April 28, 2019 - 07:11 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Your bullish call was spot on spdfgh. Gap on SPX from 3/10/18 highs has been closed. Where to from here? Indicators pointing up. Long term standard MACDH momentum is high but dropping off a little although not enough to kill off the trend at this stage. Think we may see a little more.


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bib
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Sunday, May 05, 2019 - 08:56 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The gap on the SPX from the 3/10/18 has been filled. Where to from here? On a monthly basis everything still pointing up. So I guess its not until its not. See chart below.


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scarlettsmith694
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Hello @Spdfgh
I am new in the stock market and I just try to understand things because markets are changing with the bulls until we see a definitive change, this unloved, better-be-careful bull which can last from about 10 days up to several months, and we can see many of those in the chart.

Thanks for the amazing research.


ScarlettSmith

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spdfgh
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Friday, May 24, 2019 - 11:49 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just watching the news recently with Trumps rattling the sabre over Iran, making threatening tweets like only a twit on twitter can do, makes you wonder if the American money machine is trying to scare away investors, until slow moving old US money can make an advantageous position in the market in readiness for the next 10 year leg up of the secular bull market run.
Except nobodies listening to Trump anymore, his ant-social tweets are now being laughed off, and Trump has no UN sanctions to wage war on Iran, Unemployment is not at crisis levels in the USA.

Although at some point the trend might have to re-set, looking at the chart the trend could be viewed as overbought, and a healthy bull market conditions seem to be where the cycle trends do not overstretch but re-trace to start again.

What I think might happen is we will see a market breakout then a re-tracement to support levels to test support, maybe several times before it breaks out of newly formed highs.

New industry will drive the next leg of the secular bull market.
Industries like applied A.I. and combined with Quantum computing, new memory devices (asx.4DS) new developments in Robotics, will have the same impact on existing technology that the introduction of computers and the internet had on the 3 decades after the 70's. We aren't quite there yet, but it's happening.

The only thing that might hinder this new tech progress is the state of the global atmosphere and the need to counter any eventuating rapid rise in sea levels and atmospheric global green house gas emissions, or at given a worse case scenario where humanity is knocked back to basic survival levels, but this will take 3 to 400 years to eventuate, and I think America will pass the buck to the next generation for several generations to come, as we do not currently have the technology means or the social need to attack rising global atmospheric temperatures at this time. And while the mainland US is suffering snow blizzards in early summer, I don't think global warming is taken too seriously. And there is that persistent talk about a mini ice age cycle that we are at peak of and ready to fall down into... That would put a freeze on global warming hysteria!






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bib
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Saturday, June 01, 2019 - 11:53 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Spot on spdfgh the Industrial Age has given way to the Technological Age. So its all happening. Markets do not go up in a straight line. In the last 2 major bull runs we had no major corrections. We just went from crash to fly and back to crash See RSI 14 month a chart below. This run we have seen the RSI 14 month dip to around 50 or just below in 2011, 2015/16 and Dec'18. Makes you wonder whether continued smaller regular resets are replacing the crashes of the past - for the time being anyway. This is ably assisted by the Fed and all the new Tech investment/advances.
The London Times in 1984 predicted that within 50 years London streets would be 9 feet under horse manure. No one at the time foresaw that petrol driven motor vehicles would solve the problem by 1912.
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/
Now it looks like new advances will solve some of our current big issues. EVs, Stationary storage, AI etc.
Monthly chart of SPX as at 31st May 2019 shows negative divergences on Long term indexes. Not a real healthy sign for markets long term although there were long term divergences for 4 years or so before the 2000 crash. How long the divergence lasts for depends on the strength of the initial move. The very strong move from March'16 to Jan'18 could see the current divergence of 16 months last a fair bit longer. The long term 24 month Stoch RSI continues to show that the very long term trend as measured by the standard 24 month RSI indicator continues to lose strength, ie it confirms long term divergence/weakening of trend but is not a buy/sell indicator.
Long term indicators pointing down.
It all comes back to each individuals investment timeframes and risk tolerance.
Long term the market is still bullish but weakening with negative divergences on long term indicators.
My reason for following the SPX is to adjust the levels of equity exposure in my Super fund depending on the state of the long term monthly indicators. I have reduced equity exposure recently on a sliding basis but have not been 100% cash since 2008. On a shorter term basis we see 3 recent overhead gaps on the SPX which are great targets when we get a rebound. 30th May2019 2777, 28th May 2802 and 22nd May at 2856. This gives more confidence increasing exposure on a rebound. Every down gap in SPX history has been filled at some future point.
The 3 recent gap downs also display the current short term nervousness of investors.
The danger of reducing to quickly is that around 8 out of 10 dips rebound quickly and by the time you pull the trigger to get back in you have lost money/reduced return.
So my levels of exposure reduction are reasonably generous to the downside. Everyone is different and needs to do what suits them. Trump's best chance of re election is a rising market next year so he will not mind causing a bit of investor stress this year.
I have no idea how low this move will go before a move back up.


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rederob
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Sunday, June 02, 2019 - 09:03 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"I have no idea how low this move will go before a move back up."
Me neither, but Trump's actions are likely to see very unsettled global markets for a good while longer (assuming impeachment doesn't rain on his charade).
With the massive fall in oil prices last week the energy sector will take a bath in the short term, but is likely to stabilise in the $50-60 range given US shale oil producers need about $60/barrel to be profitable and can "swing trade".
Aside from that, it does look like investors have poured back into safe (bank joke) returns in the financials and property/infrastructure sectors. With such high yields still on the table, these sectors don't seem to be as badly affected as those which are not returning much to investors.
I was curious that RIO recently returned to all time high territory, while BHP has trended down a bit. Both nevertheless are likely to perform relatively well this year, with yields still above 4% ff.


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scarlettsmith694
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Monday, June 03, 2019 - 01:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Equity markets performance is very sensitive and same with the global market.
The global market has potential to disrupt of broader momentum of equity markets. Macro-economic news and settlement of the global disturbances can be two most important factors which might help the equity markets, and which can reduce the slowdown worries.

The oil price movement is because of the global movement.
S&P/ASX200 Wraps Up with a Rise of 0.6%


ScarlettSmith

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bib
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The XJO long term monthly trends up like the SPX. The major corrections and crashes pretty well line up. The SPX on a shorter term weekly or daily is generally way more volatile than the SPX.
The XJO is long term 'indicator' bullish. Sooner or later price falls to meet Chand Exit 22/3 week and month. Apart from the usual support levels from the daily chart if the market is determined to keep falling the next level to watch for is around 6140ish which is the Chand 22/3 week - this will change week to week.

Just like the SPX we have a large negative divergence which may play out. Its wait and see. Unlike the SPX the XJO has no recent overhead gaps to fill.


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bib
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What a difference a day makes on the SPX. Two of the short term overhead gaps filled in the one hit. 2777 and 2802. One to go at 2851. If we see a rally up it should be taken out.

We saw a bounce off/around the FibR 38.2 level and the Chand long exit 22/3 week.

Long term still bullish with potential significant bearish divergences a possibility of playing out. Divergences are not divergences until they begin to play out. So as i mentioned in a previous post it could take a while. Colin Twiggs mentiomed in a recent email newsletter to watch when the yield curve turns back above 0.


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bib
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At a SPX high of 2852 the gap at 2851 was filled yesterday (6/6/19). Where to from here. Around resistance levels but momentum has really given the can a big kick. 50/50 short term.


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bib
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The US equities markets really tease. The Dow Industrials ($DOWI) has 2 very recent gaps down to fill. The 4/6/19 at 24935 and the 5/6/19 at 25374. Excited buying causing the 2 gaps up off the bottom? Several gaps on the way down to that bottom caused by nervous holders? No crazy volumes though either way.
No doubt the gaps will be filled sooner or later. An errant tweet could see the down gaps filled sooner.

But just to really tease us there is a down gap on the $DOWI from the 3/10/19 at 26789. The SPX dutifully filled a gap down from the same date in April.

Momentum has really kicked off this short term move but those gaps below are looming. Just a tad of nerves will see them filled.

Every gap in the history of the SPX and $DOWI has been filled. There are no exceptions. Unfortunately gaps do not come stamped with a use by date so we do not know when they will be filled.

Should the market close the gap above first at 26789 then hold on tight for the ride down to fill the gaps lower when the market gets tired of the march higher.
I won't try predicting levels because just like the certainty of US market gaps being filled my predictions have a ceratinty of being wrong. So i will just settle for reacting to indicators and price.


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scarlettsmith694
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Majorly all Australian market indices were trading into positive territory, ignoring a negative move from the US.

The small cap index showed downside movement by half day.


ScarlettSmith

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scarlettsmith694
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The Australian stock market news and research sharing the details that ASX Shares dropped to post-election low and increased us recession.
According to US stock market they were not ready to make a trade deal war with China. They have closed and cutting off from every United States partner at a risk ok long reputation in US China trade deal.


ScarlettSmith

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dydavo
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Tuesday, June 11, 2019 - 06:48 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My respect to all on this thread, but I have to add my 2 cents. In summary, my best ever month fully invested in Au stocks was May 2019 (now +12% May 1 to June 11, including unrealised positions). I mostly ignored national market indices, sectors, commodity prices, forex moves, tweets by any idiots or even smart people, and newsletter opinions about the future of anything. The fundamental is price action.

I just look at the strongest trending stocks. I create my own bull market using a scan in IC. Maybe May performance was a fluke, but "just focus on the individual stocks" was the best thing I read in April.

Not for everyone of course. I pay little or no attention to fundamentals, or the 22 (or is it 26?) methods of assessing value of a company's share price, and I trade for capital gain with no consideration of dividends, cg tax (or franking credits!)

I have posted previously on how I use TMO to find the best trends. I do use other software to alert me to within-day potential buy signals. The IC scan is applicable to finding strong new or existing uptrends in mid and small cap stocks. ASX 200 stocks rarely get onto the list of my stocks to consider.

Best to all

dydavo
}


David
Momentum trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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spdfgh
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Wednesday, June 12, 2019 - 12:04 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The form of this forum thread is Market Risk, and this is then applied to the holdings within sectors that are assessed for Risk.

Is this not the best way of avoiding high risk market sectors, by moving portfolio holdings into low risk sectors; for the scan that we do?

Although the focus here seems to more on one aspect of global markets; the SPX.


Just another potato.

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pjf000
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There is always market risk. You cannot avoid it, and it depends on your risk tolerance as to what and how you trade. Some move from high risk to low risk sectors, others may choose to trade in high risk sectors where they perceive individual equities are rising (or falling), and others may trade during high total market risk with things like index ETF's where long term they rise, so you get the bottom as well as the tops of the equity curve.
Chances are the more risk averse you are, the less you will make over the longer term.
Having said that, I believe everyone should have a risk strategy they follow faithfully (position sizing, volatility limits, market risk, sector risk etc etc) to enable them to handle what the market throws at them. There is always a wall of worry.


Buying a Tesla? Use this referral online ordering code for 1500 km free charging: http://ts.la/phillip2363

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scarlettsmith694
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In stock Market the risk will always there.
The performance of equity markets in Australia might be impacted.
it is important to create proper strategies for the growth of investment on dividend stocks and penny stocks and to avoid risks of loss.


ScarlettSmith

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bib
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Wednesday, June 12, 2019 - 03:51 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dydavo, agree the worst thing an investor can do is take in all the daily noise. Indexes long term tend up. The monthly standard RSI for example only crosses below 50 around 7 or 8 times for the SPX in the last 30 years. Other long term monthly indicators will only cross into bearish (cash) territory maybe 3 or 4 times in that period including the 2000 and 2008 crashes. So its not hard to develop sliding out and sliding in rules. The hard part is sticking to the rules. Sticking to the rules makes recessions and crashes irrelevant as the indicators are followed and get you out. I have 'got nervous' a few times after being influenced by media noise and broken my rules reducing exposure to quickly. This costs.
As at the end of May both the SPX and XAO are still in a long term uptrend with the XAO 'indicator' stronger.
At the moment the SPX risk is the long potential bearish divergence, yield curve, et, etc, etc. Endlress articlres written.
But it all does not play out until it plays out. The indicators will tell us when it plays out. Could be quite a while.


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spdfgh
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Roller coaster graph time:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/seven-graphs-which-reveal-the-austral ian-economy-is-not-going-well-20190606-p51v7o.html


Just another potato.

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bib
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Good article spdfgh, where we are heading is not a good place.
Not sure where the markets will go next week but there is a potential bearish divergence on the XAO - see slow stoch wk 5,3.3. Whether it plays out? If it does we will see downside. XAO down target is around 6300 followed by 6300.
I tend to follow the SPX as the XAO and SPX are correlated for major moves. The SPX seems to be more indicator friendly while the XAO is like a dog on a leash - all over the place making hard work of going hardly anywhere.

SPX and DOW heading for resistance. They are both very tightly correlated and as I mentioned last week the DOW has 2 recent down gaps to fill. Also an up gap to fill from the highs in Oct'18. Probabilities are with the long term trend. The 100 day standard IC MACD is showing the trend is up but its momentum (100d MACH) is bearish but rising toward the border (0). This negative momentum reduces the influence of the long term trend somewhat. Plus all the negative media and yield curves talk etc. Who knows what's next?????? Strange times we are in at the moment.







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bib
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The gap down on the DOW from the 3/10/18 has finally been filled.
There are only gaps down on the DOW to be filed. The lowest gap is at 24675 on the 29/1/19. No timeframes. They are just targets when the market eventually turns/corrects.
As usual probabilities are with the long term trend which is still up. Divergences and media noise exist only to sow the seed of doubt.

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