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2020 Bottom Picking

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perler59
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Username: perler59

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Saturday, April 04, 2020 - 09:37 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I've never seen this forum so dead, so I'm hoping to stir up some activity.

WBC and NAB are at or below 2008 lows, ANZ is heading that way and CBA is the strongest of the big four, while XJO is nowhere near the 2008 low, yet. Does that imply that the big banks are a lousy investment at this time (and CBA is best)? If they have a bleak future, what does that say about the Australian economy? Perhaps the market is pricing in lower future profits, due to near zero interest rates for many years... and some loan defaults of course.

Will we see a virus bottom, followed by a weak recovery, and then the real bear market, that is long overdue? Perhaps modern monetary theory (Q.E. forever) has changed the nature of equity markets, and there is now no real bear to be afraid of, except for black swans, which of course are not bears :-)


Let's pick the virus bottom. Did it already happen on the 23rd of march?


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ingot54
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Saturday, April 04, 2020 - 10:52 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Perler - good to see you mate.
Still getting Colin's emails and yes the room is quiet.
So much history for me here - good friends and so much optimism.

Good time now to change the carpets, move the furniture and paint the walls.

Still following the markets - year 16.
First stock bought was GDY (now RNE) the hot water farm that was going to revolutionise energy production from the Cooper Basin.

GDY is does not seem to have a bottom.

But - it is a time to be positive and I like your observant mindset.

Happy to come along with you on this journey.

What signs would you need to be seeing to be confident of a launching platform being established?

I am out of the markets due to bots making life difficult.
Switched to higher TF, but then the oligarchs got my measure too vis a vis oil, gold; and the money printers created an environment that destroyed TA as far as I understood it.

Donated more than I care to admit, and I think that's the story for the forum.







Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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pjf000
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Saturday, April 04, 2020 - 11:46 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wait! Let me dust off my crystal ball.


Buying a Tesla? Use this referral online ordering code for 1500 km free charging: http://ts.la/phillip2363

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ingot54
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Saturday, April 04, 2020 - 02:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"Wait! Let me dust off my crystal ball."

I recall the 2007 market crash vividly.
Was subscribing to Alan Kohler's "Eureka Report" at that time.

First BIG dip was August '07 followed by a new high October.

I am cheating from my charts here for dates, but the events are indelible.

Kohler was in denial, despite the dogs barking that it was looking toppy.

Kohler called the bottom and declared it time to buy in August '08 12 months after the rot set in.
I had an argument with him about the dead cat bounce.
He would not hear of it, and I declared him a dill (euphemism here) and unsubscribed from his Eureka propaganda Report.

The secular bear market formally arrived one month later, and by November Kohler himself was forced to capitulate.

I wonder how many IC members also subscribed to Kohler's madness and paid the price that sheep ultimately pay?

Anyway - we are not here for a history lesson - had to get it off the chest.

What has this to do with crystal balls?

Something to do with history, and little to do with forecasting futures.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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perler59
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Monday, April 06, 2020 - 12:02 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day ingot. Wow. Lots of memories alright. Your beard must have a few more grey hairs by now. Meanwhile my old Programming Perl book has turned yellow.

Here are some ideas from the Financial Sense Newshour free podcast, (Jim Puplava, southern California), for the bottom in the US. The bottom will come after the NASDAQ 100 under-performs the S&P500, there is a "Puke Day" with 90% of stocks down on high volume, after the peak of people infected per day in the US, and perhaps a few months after peak volatility, as in March 2009.


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bib
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Saturday, April 11, 2020 - 11:47 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For the DOW and SPX we have a gap up from the bottom and more up to now. We also have a gap down from the recent highs.
Every gap in history on those indexes have been filled. Unfortunately filling does not come with a timeframe.
Down filled first up?
Standard Macs. Short term DAILY momentum bullish and flying. Standard daily Trend is bearish.
Standard weekly Mac sees both momentum and Trend bearish.
So we have one out of three. As meatloaf said 2 out of 3 ain't bad. Relying on one is pretty risky if its the short term (my words).
All big trends start from a trickle of short term momentum but anyone who subscribes to IC knows that standard daily MACH runs of out puff. Sometimes (not often) it can go on for months before turning bearish. But it is risky to rely on it unless you are in a short term trade.
The market is moving on chances of virus control and Government give aways. Once the virus is done market attention will be on the economy which may well be frightening.
The problem is that as the move gets mature people will be sucked in.
I am absolutely crap at predicting what happens in markets but I think it would be risky to assume we will not see the bottom gap filled before the gap down from the highs. Ie, I think probability sees a move to test the recent bottom before we test the recent highs. When this rebound up finishes??


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ingot54
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Saturday, April 11, 2020 - 12:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just casting a bare eye over SPX500 - looks like the 2900 zone will take a bit of cracking.

You may well be correct, Bib, about the attention moving to economics once the virus is quelled a bit.

I think more damage has been done that most realise.
Banks have been the recipients of more money than has been made public by way of "support packages" which do not define specifically WHERE the money will be going.

Once questions are asked behind closed doors by those who move markets (Institutions, Banks, Funds and Oligarchs) there may be that famous dead cat, and then a rally?

Mere conjecture from me.

Still driving the Pulsar I had in 2002, so what would I know!

Similar story for US30 - 25,000 to 25,100 looks to be a zone to watch. Closed this morning right at the WEEKLY 200 ema as well.

Interesting times.

And I bet you have a few less hairs on your head too, Perler than last time we were in session


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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bib
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Saturday, April 11, 2020 - 06:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gaps on the SPX to fill.
GAP DOWN:
21/2/20 LOW = 3328
5/3/20 LOW= 3000
6/3/20 LOW= 2902

GAPS UP:
23/3/20 H= 2300
3/4/20 H= 2538
8/4/20 H= 2761 (tiny gap)
If history is a guide all these gaps will eventually be filled.
That means that at some point the recent low will be tested. It also means that at some point the recent all time highs will at least be tested.
Take your pick as to whether we test the recent bottom or the recent top first.
There are gaps in between to fill as well.
This move is fuelled solely by momentum. Around 99% of SPX stocks show bullish Standard daily MacH momentum. This compares to around only 4% of daily MACH 100,50,30 showing bullish momentum.
The short term MacH could well run for a while yet. Wait and see. Its rate of increase has almost stalled since the 31/3/20. So its decent should start soon but it could be a longish downhill run????? Depending on news of course.
Also a bit of resistance around the 3100 area. That also coincides with the 75% off the bottom and sees 2 of the down gaps filled. All depends on news. I rarely if ever get these things right.


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perler59
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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 - 08:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Ingot, I have hair everywhere, just not on my head

Louise Yamada is calling this a bear market rally, but with interest rates so low, the TINA (there is no alternative) effect is strong. V bottom, or lower low to come?

https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/19567/bear-market-rally-says-louise-yamad a


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bib
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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 - 10:05 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



TA is not as effective when the Trump credit card comes out and spends big. Sends the market flying when TA would expect a retest of lows. Low interest rates mean not many alternatives.
Traders fuel V shaped moves plenty of short term money to be made in both up and down.
Short term momentum via MACH is at 98% bullish stocks for the SPX and 99% bullish stocks for the Nasdaq100. Momemtum that strong can fuel a fairly long short term move.
There are gaps to fill at the recent low of tis move and the previous high.
They will be filled. But when? The gap down from the high on the SPX on 3/10/18 was not filled until 23/4/19. So it can take a while. Most gaps of course don't take that long to fill.
History on the US SPX and DOW tell us that we will revisit the recent low and the recent high at some stage.
If you are long term you may have a hefty drawdown but history says you will see the high again and hopefully more.


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ingot54
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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 - 10:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Casting a quick-but-inaccurate eye over the SPX500 and US30 and AUS200, it is not hard to see that all three are at (?critical) resistance points.

HK50, JPN225 and GER30, FRA40 are also at Resistance, but the FTSE100 looks out of step with siblings.

Gold broke recent highs too.
Not seen at these levels of $USD1728 since Nov/Dec 2012 when flying south for the winter, as markets recovered.

What does this mean?


If I ask the Q it means I have no clue.

Tonight markets may power through these levels, re-test and soar again to lofty meetings with the next world disaster!

Or they may cower and head south once again, in another winter of discontent.

Clue: Gold.
Why new highs?







Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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perler59
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Wednesday, April 15, 2020 - 02:59 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold new highs?

Because the (bad) traders have finished selling gold to cover their margin calls on the way down, the strong expectation of future inflation, and with such low interest rates, holding gold is cheap.

SPX Daily 2019-2020

The SPX is at the levels of last October, as though nothing bad has happened since then, and it's retraced more than 50% of the fall.

Amazon, (AMZN) just blew out the top to a new all time high. At least there is some logic as to which tech stocks are doing the best. It's now trading at 100 x what is was in 2003. Talk about buy and hold. All I have to do is work out what to hold, ha ha!

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