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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

QBE breakout ?

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through October 14, 2010 » QBE breakout ?

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ivor
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 12:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



QBE breakout through resistance ? QBE breakout


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bib
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009 - 09:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ivor,
Daily looks ok (but i would not buy it for a short term trade) as it respects the trendline. But it always pays to check out the next timeframe in this case weekly when you spot a reasonable daily.
The weekly shows current levels to be around previous congestion/resistance levels. I think a lot of traders would wait for the weekly to clear this area.
I am reasonably new to trading/TA so do your own research. I have learnt a lot from reading threads on this forum and its been educational in its own right - keep reading
Having said all that the SP will probably fly just to kick me in the pants!!







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hershy
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009 - 06:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As it so often happens, the next measured move is to previous high around %$26.60 or so I believe.
Should be a good day for QBE.




The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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bib
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009 - 03:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



You were right Hershy, QBE had a great day.


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ivor
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Thursday, September 17, 2009 - 05:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



QBE heading towards $26.60 ?QBE target ?


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ivor
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Friday, October 02, 2009 - 09:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sold out of QBE while I'm still slightly in front. Think it's a fizzer likely to fall through it's support line.

QBE


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peterloh
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Friday, February 19, 2010 - 01:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hershy/ivor,

QBE has now retested the support level, it should be on its way now. The commercial insurance sector is currently in favour with IAG, SUN reporting improved results from its trading.With little claim in sight and rates increases, on top of investments recovery, I expect an improved result from this heavy weight. The downside is, it earn most of its revenue overseas which is disadvantage by the strong ozzie dollar. I do expect an improved interim dividends declaration. With a pe ratio of 11, what more can I say. This is the real thing.QBE is due to report next week.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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eagle
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Friday, February 19, 2010 - 05:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



peterloh - agree with all your fundamental views on QBE. It dipped below year long upward channel when whole mkt got scared last couple of weeks but moving back into it now. I'd like to see it go above 23.50 and hold (didn't today) to be sure it is on new run up. Channel is wide so if result is good plenty of room for move up.

QBE Daily


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peterloh
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Saturday, February 20, 2010 - 06:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



QBE has trended well and upwards in your yearly chart. It is at the lower channel and thus a low risk entry. On the 7 years monthly chart, QBE was trending downwards, but recently it has broken the down trend.It has come back to retest the level and bounce off it strongly.

Sway is of the view that sometimes if we wait for all the ducks are in placed, we missed a good part of the SP rise.(on his view of Weinstein's methodology).
I agree with this view. It is like, if we know it is going to rain, we should take our umbrella with us. Likewise if we know that the SP is likely to go up, then we should put our money in first, instead of waiting for the SP to go up first to a certain level, then we buy.To compensate this difference in making a decision, I use my knowledge of the fundamentals, the current macro economics of the industry and the micro economics of the company.

QBE was moving ahead by 36c against the the weaken market that went down 24 points yesterday. This could be insider knowledge buying ahead of the results which is due next week.If the market does well next week, so will QBE.






-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Sunday, February 21, 2010 - 07:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys,

I think you are falling for a perfect trap here. QBE's recent rally is purely following the short term rally in the XJO. All my studies tell me that this week should see the end of that rally in the XJO and will no doubt do the same thing to QBE.

I still expect some further up move in the XJO this week until possibly Wednesday to Friday which will no doubt cause the current back test of QBE to be successful for a fleeting moment, but eventually it will fail.




In a similar fashion to the XJO, the rally in QBE has created a Triple 3 corrective move since the market low in March 2009. That corrective move (ie corrective to the fall since the start of the GFC) is over and we are now in the midst of the next major move down.

If you are extremely bullish in the long term about QBE then you won't mind waiting a week. Unless you are a short term trader, I would suggest that QBE is not the place to put your hard earned at this point in time.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eagle
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Sunday, February 21, 2010 - 03:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy - as EW is a blank to me I can't argue for or against your statement but I will take it onboard and watch closely. My current interest in QBE is via CFDs for quick (several days timespan) smallish gains. I'm in QBE now so maybe I'll still pick up some gains in the early part of this coming week.

I do have QBE in my longer term portfolio. If market turns as you're suggesting then I guess I can try and protect it with a short CFD on QBE (and the index for general coverage) if I don't want to sell the holding.

I'm still "young" in TA so I tend to view TA as a probability game. To me that means until the 'prediction' happens, it hasn't happened and thus remains a prediction. It may prompt a period of be extra watchful and if the change occurs at this inflexion point, one has to be nimble and prepared to "change" position (e.g. long to short).

I'm looking fwd to this next week and the charts / discussion to see how it all plays out.


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peterloh
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Sunday, February 21, 2010 - 10:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello rudy, you have wandered off bear's corner(lol). You are always well come to give your opinion.

You stated that QBE was up with the rally of XJO recently. How do you explain the rise in QBE on Friday when the XJO went the other way?

I have been observing the commercial insurance sector for the last 2 years, only till now was I convinced that this sector is turning around.The results of IAG and SUN confirmed that. QBE is a better run company and will perform better than the other 2. As I said the disadvantage is that it earned more than half of its income from overseas.I expect that QBE will have a better results on Friday and accordingly QBE will be rerated from accumulation to buy by most research houses.Whether QBE will justify my faith the SP will soon let me know, I won't even have to wait till Friday for the results. QBE is currently on a pe ratio of 11 against the XAO of 14. For QBE to go further down would only meant that its results has worsen, which is not the case.I have been a follower of EW for many years, long before the use of computer for charts. If EW is the sole answer to everything, I wouldn't need to use other indicators or methodology or spend some time on research on the company. You have consistently call this market rise as a bear rally. What is your definition of a market rally, whether it is a bull or bear rally? The market has been trading within a range in the last 6 months. This is not unexpected especially after the market has a strong rise. It is only natural that the market has a pause. The recent good reports of many companies will confirm that the rise has been justified and if that is the situation then companies deemed expensive may not be so because of the higher returns. In the short term the state of the market will affect the SP, but for the longer term, the intrinsic value will show up. It looks like QBE is more likely to go up then down, as shown by eagle's chart and thus an entry at this level is deemed low risk. I also think the market is more likely to finish up by the end of the year than down.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 07:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

Just a few points that you made in the post above. Regarding QBE following the pattern of the XJO if you have understood EW analysis then you would know that I was speaking of the Triple 3 pattern that both the XJO and QBE have made since the start of the rally in March 2009. My comment in no way suggests that the XJO and QBE will follow each other 'lock step' through every twist and turn.

My main point in mentioning the above was that QBE as a stock is very much influenced by what the overall market is doing regardless of its fundamentals. As you know, the market is driven by emotion, not logic.

As for EW being every thing, I am the last one to suggest that. EW analysis has limitations just as other indicators and traditional TA methodologies have limitations. The edge that EW gives is in its ability to recognise completed patterns which allow us to have a reasonable view as to the future direction of markets. Taken in exclusion no TA methodology is a holy grail and it is important to use as many different methodologies in order to confirm views about future price action.

By the way, I think your comment about bears corner is quite unfair. During the bull market I was a stong bull. My posts on IC will clearly show you that I got out of the market when we had fallen 2% from the market top in 2007 because my analysis told me that the market was going to experience a large drop.

Prior to the March rally I was one of the few on IC that was saying that we were nearing a significant multi-month rally. I remember vividly the posts from others at the time that suggested that I was way off beam in my thoughts.

A couple of months ago I posted on IC that the multi-month rally would top sometime between mid January and early February and that the S&P500 would probably top in the range of 1150 and 1171. The S&P500 topped on the 19th January at 1150.45.

The market dropped around 10% and I then suggested that the market would retrace that drop by between 32.8% and 50% with a maximum of 70% at a time when everyone was bearish and thought that this was not possible. Since that prediction the S&P500 has reached a 61.8% retracement and the XJO is nearing the 50% level.

I am now saying that this rally will end between the 24th February and the 1st March and will drop at least another 10%. Lets see whether it happens or not.

Regarding your question :You have consistently call this market rise as a bear rally. What is your definition of a market rally, whether it is a bull or bear rally?

Obviously a market rally is when the market goes up. For me what determine whether it is a bear market rally is where this rally falls within a particular pattern. In my view the fall in the market from November 2007 to March 2009 was only the first wave in potentially either a 3 or 5 wave corrective pattern. The rally was the second wave and we entered the third wave in January. I personally think that it is the third wave in a contracting wedge pattern so probably mid year I will once again be turning bullish for a few months.

Once the corrective pattern is completed, then and only then will we be at the start of a new bull market. Until then, all rallies will form part of a bear market and hence be called bear market rallies.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



QBE has significant overseas income and will tend to benefit if the $AUD falls. The Aussie market will tend to fall if the $AUD falls (mostly due to commodities). Sound like a good stock to have in a downtrend if you are a buy-and-hold type.

There are many other stocks with overseas income that have underperformed for that reason in the last 12 months.


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peterloh
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 09:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy, thank you for taking your time to clarify certain perceptions we have on your views. You also explain your views of a BEAR market which is strictly in the context of EW and not the general definition of a bear market.
A certain EW chartist who professionally advises on shares charted the direction of CBA when it was $26, with all the "dooms and glooms" last year was not doing his clients a service to see the share at $56 today. Once the share was sold out near the bottom, it wasn't bought back again. I am concern that your view of march 2009 is only the first wave of a 5 waves corrective pattern. I am of the opinion March 2009 is the exhaustion of the down trend. It was once in a life time experience and only came about when there were absolutely no business transaction and banks wouldn't lend to each other.We know that governments intervention opened up the economy again and Australia never went into recession and even if it did, it was the shortest one we have come to know of.I do not think it is highly likely that we would be any worse off than march 2009 or ever revisited that depths ever again ( a la W bottom). Whilst I appreciate EW is helpful at times I would only use it selectively.

Ken I am in agreement with your views that any stock that rely on overseas income will have a difficult time trying to out perform, when the Aussie $ is strong.I am willing to take a punt on QBE for the short term. For those that have QBE for the longer term, at least in the 1 year chart, it is trending in the right direction.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 09:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter,

You have misunderstood my comment about a 5 wave pattern. If you had been following my posts on the ODB thread you would know that I am talking about a contracting (triangle) wedge pattern. I believe that A was the March 2009 low B was the January 2010 high and the current wave is wave C. You will note that it terminates higher than the March 2009 low.




I expect that the current wave down will complete in June 2010 and then we should get a rally which will last a number of months.

Your suggestion that because one particular EW analyst made a poor trading decision has no more credibility than to suggest that because one trader using traditional TA methodologies who makes a poor trading decision reflects on all others who use the same methodology. What traders/investors do is entirely up to them.

If you are an investor who doesn't mind their stocks going down 30% over a number of months knowing that it will eventually go up again then it's no problems to remain in the stock. My personal method of trading gets me out of the market during large drops and back into the market during the rallies. That is the trading methodology that I used when I exited the market in December 2007 and put my money into term deposits.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 10:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy, my apologies to you for misunderstanding your explanation. Your use of the word corrective in the waves pattern did throw me off guard as I understood it only refer to a 3 wave down pattern.I am sure you know what you are doing. However you did come across as being negative in your approach currently by your interpretation of the current market, perhaps it is only a perception from readers that now and then read some of the posts in ODB.
Being a trader, if you elect to put your money in term deposit, under the current climate, you could have miss any opportunities on offer.I remember I used to pay 3% just for brokerage alone and we had to think of a way to beat the market those days. Thankfully we survived to fight another day. You art right in saying that a mistake by a trader should not caste doubts on others that practise
the same discipline. However when we write we sometimes sound assertive. Years of trading taught me, nothing is certain in life, except death and taxes.Having said that, experience taught us, if we apply ourselves it increases the probability for success.
I know your intention is good with your warning on QBE. Please do not think that I don't appreciate it. However I have come up with a different conclusion, that QBE will really do well at least in the short term and to repeat myself, a low risk entry.I hope I am right as my money is riding on it since Friday.

Eagle, by having your money in cfds, you are probably on the same wave length as me in anticipating the rise in QBE except you are cautious that you are more comfortable that QBE break the resistance level of $23.50 and stayed on top of it.Your approach shows that you know what you are doing.
Lets hope QBE goes up for our sake. Even if the Aussie $ reaches par with the US dollar, if QBE maintains its existing level of growth, this will more than cover the rises in the Aussie $ it will still be a growth stock from here on.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 10:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter,

Once again you have misinterpreted what I have said. I said that I get out when significant drops in the market are about to occur and get back in during the rallies. I am currently in the market but will be exiting the market during this week as I believe that another drop of around 10% should hit us within the next 6 trading days.

Once that 10% (or so) drop completes I will be back into the market.

Did you remain fully invested during the time when the market dropped over 50%? It was during that period that I was in term deposits. I tend to play every interim rally that lasts a number of weeks. As I say by sometime in June I will be a big bull again as I expect a rally period of several months.

I appear to be bearish because until June I believe that the general trend of the market will be down. Naturally between now and June there will be shorter term rallies which I will take full advantage of.

I am a bear when I believe that the market will go down and a bull when I believe that it will go up. It is not due to any personal bias but rather what I see coming in the market.

I don't know how I can make it more clearer than I already have.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 10:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy, a drop of 10% in 6 days, that is a "big call".
Nothing against you,nothing that I can see in the near future resembles that.I will take you out to dinner if that happens, ok! Anyway you are sure sticking your neck out for your belief. If you short cfds now, and if you are right, you will make a fortune.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 11:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

The written word is very easy to misunderstand. What I am saying is that we will be commencing a downward move withing 6 trading days that will end up being around 10% in range. I am not saying that the move will completed in 6 trading days.

I will hold you to that dinner date.

Traditional TA methodologies cannot makes those sort of forecasts.

Let's wait and see how close I get the call.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 11:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Is this what you see, Rudy, a corrective wave 2? Do you mean it will gradually drop 10%, a 38% Fibonacci retracement? I only work on probability nowadays, and I mainly use support and resistance level, with volume coming in to assist.You have taken charting beyond imagination, if you are correct with your prediction.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 11:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

The following is my idealised diagram of the market action that is taking place from the market top on the 11th January to what I believe will be the completion of the move down by sometime in June.



Wave a completed on the 9th February at 4464.9 which represents a drop of around 490.2 points. Sometime in the next 6 trading days we should complete wave b. When that occurs it will drop down to what I have labeled wave A. As wave a was an impulsive move, it is likely that we are forming a Zigzag for this part of the pattern.

One of the most common ranges for the third wave of a Zigzag is wave equality with the first wave which is why I expect a move down of around 490 points.

Wave a took from the 11th January to the 9th February. The third wave may not be created in the same time as the first wave but I suspect that it will terminate in April sometime.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 11:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy, I am sure I can take you out with my innings on QBE alone, perhaps paint the whole town red(lol).


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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gdd3
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 12:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Come on Guys(Rudy and Peter), I know some of us are "missing" the Dug and C.C. Show but lets makes sure we don't try to repeat(or impersonate) their act!

You both have stated your opinions on the possible directions(near and far) of QBE and/or the markets in general and both surely can be perceived as plausible from an outsiders or each others perspective. I believe both of you have proved in some of your past postings that you can pick correct "market/stock directions" fairly consistently BUT not all the time, so you don't need to state this, right. Someone will earn the "bragging" rights over the coming days, weeks and months but so what!

I say congratulations to both of you for having such strong opinions of this current markets direction in whatever timeframe you want to make reference too. Me, personally, I am not as sure and will simple let the market do what it will do as I know darn sure that whatever T/A or even F/A I may follow/use it is not going to have any impact on that market direction. I just have to believe that I have the money management tools in place to allow myself to accept that my view was wrong/right(at the time)to protect my portfolio balance sheet.

So lets just accept that you two have a different view on QBE and the market in general at this point in time and get back to the simply presenting that!

By the way, I'm personally not remotely interested in trading QBE as I see too many other better opportunities to "place/park" my money in.

In Good Spirit
Dolphin


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peterloh
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 12:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dolphin, please fo not roped us into the same category as tony and abbott or dug and captain. I am sure both of them have equally good qualities. I did misinterpret Rudy's point of view which I did apologise.I do agree with all the views here, in particular yours, dolphin in letting the market guide us. I am fully invested in the market, although I agree with some of rudy's summation, it is a matter of degree.From where I sit, I cannot say that I can be completely out of the market at any one time, that was many moons ago, when I had the luxury. I also don't have the luxury in investing in some of the stock you mentioned now and then, in the TAZ zone.When times are not so certain, I do like to make a few cents here and there and QBE presented an opportunity not that I particularly like the share. Lets say I have great respect for its standing, but not a share that I would like to hold particularly for the long term for my risk profile. I am more on mid cap or even some small caps.I also look at the big picture and do not necessary let retracement concern me nowadays.I look at retracement as opportunities which will not present themselves in the absence of it.I like to stick on to a trend from its very initial stage, thankfully to date that I have more rights than wrong.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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espresso
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 03:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Totally agree with you Dolphin, your comments are fair, balanced and non speculative. the market is going to do what it wants not what we think its going to do. As long (part the Pund) as the money management is in place the rest is thin are. if the 2 party's want to go out for dinner well thats a different story and its no big deal just work it out when the bill arrives.


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hershy
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 06:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For whatever it may be worth, this is how I see the market going.
Short term, upwards for a day, days or a week or so at most.
Then I expect the move that saw the XAO drop from 4984 to 4483, a drop of 501 points or 10.05 % to be repeated and from whatever the next lower high will be, the market could/should/will drop the same 501 points +/- 5%.
I see the area between 4000 t0 4200 as a possible target.

Peter, you are an excellent trader and you know I think the world of you and your rationale. I did smirk to myself when I read your "fish in the barrel" analogy and thought you very brave to make such a statement. Whether I am wrong or right, whether you are right or wrong, I will not think any less of you.

Rudi, I find your arguments extremely compelling and your reasoning strikes a cord in my beliefs of how the market moves and shakes. Your position in my esteem will also remain unchanged should you be wrong.

There are events happening in the northern hemisphere that will have far more influence on the market that any of us comprehend.
Think about this:
China holds more US debt than any other country.
China is now selling US dollars. This is good for the US in a weird way as it makes imports dearer and exports cheaper.
It is bad for China because it makes the US dollar weaker and Chinese exports dearer. If China slows or stops buying Aussie raw materials, the market will tank a lot more than 500 points. And it will do so very quickly.
Do you want to be holding when this happens ?


Don't worry about what people think; they don't do it very often.
The wise man, even when he holds his tongue, says more than the fool when he speaks

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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ivor
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 08:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello All

Thought this was started as a thread about QBE ?

QBE seems to me to be travelling OK at this stage.

May get serious resistance at around $25 if it gets that far.

Regards to all
Ivor




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peterloh
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Monday, February 22, 2010 - 08:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter, "please explain - fish in the barrel" analogy of being brave.

Thank you for your kind words and like wise I do have admiration of your depths of knowledge in technical analysis.

Please be assured that I have a strong instinct of self preservation, which at times seemed unconventional, nevertheless it stood the test of time. It is also nothing new but learned from many of the old timers as time goes by. I have never regard myself as being brave, but foolish at times, perhaps.

Peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010 - 06:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hershy, regarding China, the intra Asia trade has been improving. If America cannot pay for the goods, it is no point selling to them and holding on to the US bonds. This is also the reason, China is looking to diversify their holding by owning some other type of assets, like businesses and mines and putting their money elsewhere other than the states.(make no mistake, I love and admired the average American Joe Blow).

China can also create their own market as they have a big enough population to do so. They are also coming from a low base. Their consumption of nickel is about 30 as compared to Japan of over thousand per head. They need stainless steel sinks for years to come, not the old plastic buckets they are using now.

The reigning in of credit is a must for China currently and not necessary a bad thing, as price for units have trebled in a very short time.This is only a temporary measure and is directed against speculation in the property market.In the long term China and India need a lot of our resources as they are 20 years behind with a hugh population. Once they bring their standard of living up, they will have to consume.

The market ebbs and flows which is a general characteristic.Elliot try to quantify it using Fibonacci measurements.TA is not an exact science and I accept what it is. To me it is one of my tools of trade, I have many other tools in my bag of tricks.Like dolphin, I am not preoccupied with the target of retracement or how the market is faring, but is ready for it even if retracement does eventuate. Hilarious often said, did you anticipate the degree the market went down in october 1987 ot the magnitude of the fall in 2009? Did EW predicted that?

Trading is a game of survival and from my experience in life only a handful are still around doing it after 5 years.Many did not survive in the first couple of years. I used to pay about 2.5 to 3% for my trade. Compared to the past, the brokerage today for on line trading is cheap.Also the tools we have today, is something I could never dream of in the past.I remembered for a period many years ago, I used the credit from my credit cards for the purpose of trading. Those were the hard days when I did not have enough capital. You can call that brave, not what I do today, I call what I do today a calculated risk.(please do not copy what I did, it is too risky and not for everyone).

hershy, you have always been a gentleman, but do not hold back, just give me a kick in the rear, if you think I am doing something foolish or do not toll the line. I can accept it.Year 2008 had been my worse year in my life of trading, not that I did not quit in time, but came back too early. However 2009 has compensated that, as what I did in a year is more that what I ever achieved in all my years of trading put together.Some of these ideas are from the people I met at IC and some that I never met but learned from their ideas. With my background, I only need to adapt some of the ideas to help me along.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010 - 07:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin, Hershy, Ivor, etc,

First Dolphin,

I found it amusing for you to try to compare Peter and I with CC and Dug (the latter who I have a lot more respect for than the former). Those two clearly disliked each other and took every opportunity to clobber each other.

Peter and I on the other hand have met each other (along with other investors/traders) privately at dinner engagements of a few occasions and hold a mutual respect for each other. The fact that we continued our dialog was purely to ensure that there was more perfect understanding of our views rather than partaking in a 'thread war'.

Hershy,

Thank you for your kind comments. Even though IC is not a forum that likes people making nice comments about each other I think that you would already know that I hold your views in high esteem. We share a number of methodologies that ensure that we don't ever misunderstand each other's perspective and we each have a few tricks of our own that ensures that we can each keep learning from each other.

Ivor,

Yes it is a thread specifically about QBE. Any investor interested in a stock needs to consider all influences on that stock. If the stock has a tendency to be influenced (not tied to by the hips) by the direction of the overall market then that investor will look at what is in store for the overall market. To not do so is taking risks in the extreme. I do understand that you think that the overall market is not in any trouble and I have already explained on the ODB thread why Sway (and in the same way you) have come to this conclusion so I won't bore everyone by going over it again.

(Message edited by rdumas on February 23, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010 - 09:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter and Rudy,

Thanks for the 'explanation' of what I(and a couple of others) perceived as maybe a Tete a Tete(H.to H.)brewing and I hope you enjoy your dinner together(I'm sure C.C. and Dug would never have considered that to discuss their differences... views i.e.!). At least we have it in 'writing' that we will not have a repeat of the C.C. and Duggie show....joshin', guys!

Also thanks, Peter for your compliments re my contributions to this forum....in fact, I believe most of my post above was complimentary to both of you two(ref. para's 2 and 3 just in case you missed it).

Anyway, enough said about this .... Movin' on!

Dolphin


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peterloh
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010 - 10:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Most of the members here are decent people who occasionally give an alert, if they see things differently.The intentions are good, but sometimes, the captain and dug turned aggro and this actually frightens a lot of the newbies away. We have been around and we know these guys have a chip over the shoulder, so we tend to put up with them. I can understand Colin's situation in suspending them, but I do hope in time they can return to contribute to the forum.
They do have different views and provide a balance in our discussions.

The reason that I decided to loosen my purse strings in this short term QBE trade.Since the ozzie $ has been going up, I have never bought a share that earned their income from overseas except TSE. I Bought TSE because it was so cheap that I could not walkaway from it. Having previously bought them at around $3 and to see it reached a new high of $14 and not selling any till it came down to $5. I learned my lesson well this time round, bought it around $2 and only just sold it for double of that. I tend to stick my money into importers, and retailers as they have to pay less for their imports, thus my leaning to PBG which I bought mainly at a giveaway price.QBE is a heavy weight to me, a proven performer, but it is not a share that I will look for to get a high return in percentage.Rudy is of the view that the market volatility does affect QBE in particular. I look at QBE slightly different this time round. Commercial and general insurance sector has improved with less claims in general but the premium rate has increase, which means a better profit.The premium received are also invested and because of market improvement, they also made money from investments. The recent investors update by QBE gave the following guideline;
actual first half profit is 19% plus which is 1.02 billion
gross written premium 22% plus increase
insurance profit margin of 17.5%
This improvement will continue for the rest of the year.I think QBE is likely to be rerated to a positive outlook.
With an improved results, they are likely to increase their interim dividends.
Having done my own due diligence, I can only hope from here on.Whether it will turn up right, only time will tell.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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eagle
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010 - 11:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Been a busy thread over w'end and yday.

In and out of my QBE CFDs for a quick smallish gain. Got out of half at a resistance point yday and then the remainder via the stop-loss this morning.

Hope they lift again for others still in (and for my longer term portfolio)

cheers


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hershy
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010 - 08:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A veritable admiration society.



Peter
I though you were saying sometime while the market was trending up that is was SO easy picking winners at that time, like shooting fish a barrel.
It seems I may owe you an apology. I seem to recall you posting such a message a while back which I now cannot find.
the explanations may be:
- I imagined it
- it was not you
- I misunderstood.

It must have been the Shiraz !!!

Cheers


Don't worry about what people think; they don't do it very often.
The wise man, even when he holds his tongue, says more than the fool when he speaks

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010 - 10:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I like the lighter merlot, hershy.

eagle, another foolish action of mine today bought more QBE at the support level at 49 and 50c today.I had it there and it was taken out. Well if it doesn't go up in the next 2 days, I will run for my life, that's fear, hershy.

I was watching Bloomberg this morning and heard one of the commentators said, the market wanted to go up all day. The Dow index fell in the last 15 minutes.So I am having conflicting views.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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eagle
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Wednesday, February 24, 2010 - 12:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peterloh - QBE fundamentals are still as you described a while ago. Just got to be clear why you're in - short term trade (as my CFD shot was) or buying for divs/future growth etc. If you buy for divs and you're happy when you buy then you could take a Buffett approach and own them for life and enjoy the dividend flow.

And if the world does really crash (like some predict) then QBE have been good in the past at buying distressed businesses around the world.

QBE did see-saw today - the result (on Fri?) may set a direction for us to really react to - whether that be up or down, time will tell. And of course the overall market will influence.

Before then they'll probably be pushed about as some buy cause they see a great company and expectations of a great result and some who sell due to the currency strength and its impact on that result. Plus a host of others no doubt.

Makes it all fun doesn't it - as long as it doesn't hurt too much. That's why we have shiraz and merlot - to celebrate with or cry into!!!


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peterloh
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Wednesday, February 24, 2010 - 11:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello eagle, thank you for keeping in touch and letting us know what you are doing. I am in agreement with you your strategy and your way of going about things.

I suppose at heart I am an investor and it is hard to change my attitude and I do look for value. I could have taken my profit on Monday for 2 and a half grand, but that is not what I was looking.We are face with decisions all the time don't we? I am not ready yet for a yield play alone, as my risk profile is for growth too and the dividend franking is something that come in useful today.

Like you, I could have use cfds and magnify my profit in very short term trades. I have considered that but it is not a route that I like to take currently.

My dad has done us children good by using a buy and hold strategy in his investment on shares in Malaysia. I supposed in his life time a few must have fallen over but the rest has done very well, in banking shares like OCBC which have gone up more than 50 times and a lot of the mining companies for tin and plantations like oil palm and cocoa. This like having investment in Woodside, BHP and CBA shares at a very early stage. As hever used leverage for them in his life time, he only bought more when the share price were low.Today we like to speed up the process through leverage and also get out when it is time to.

I like to get on to the right sector nowadays at an early stage. Early last year, I was on to resources in a big way
which help. I have sold half and put them in listed property trusts, when the clock on these were about 5 to 6 o'clock. These are about 7' oclock now according to the commercial valuers and we can only see upside from here.

At this stage of the year, I am into engineering contractors as they are getting orders on hand now and businesses are picking up quickly. I have by pass LEI, UGL,MND and DOW whick are excellent companies. I am going for MAH and BLY more for the higher percentage return but having a higher risk profile.

Funds management and general insurance business are improving. I have preference for general insurance at this stage.SUN has banking along side it. IAG is going to have a good year. I like QBE currently, like you say it has been picking companies for acquisitions for very good value.I do not see our ozzie $ as getting much stronger any more, but around 90c for sometime to come. If it stabilise here, we will have certainty in earnings.The green back has started to turn around.So the foreign exchange risk has lessen from here.
In buying QBE, I am buying it at the lower channel on an upwards trend.If we ignore the day today fluctuation and forecast on the longer term, QBE is having a higher high and a higher low. I suppose I will have to put up with it till something more exciting comes along.
Procrastination cause me to miss out on HIL which I have been watching for some time, that's life.

Guess I will have to throw a few more dollars at it now.By the number of green candles, there are not many dark clouds around in the last few months.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 04:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just to confirm the reason I am still throwing money at QBE at this level is that QBE is still in an uptrend mode and it is at the lower level of the channel which is an excellent entry.QBE has an extremely strong balance sheet and its financial situation, I can understand well, none of the financial engineering, "you get what you see".This is an excellent company and those that know something about the industry, will know this is the best insurance company in Australia. After september 11, 2001 QBE was in trouble, but not for long.In 2003, it started the upward trend till end 2007 or beginning of 2008 when the trend reversed.This is a cyclical industry and QBE has been trending up for a year and I expect the momentum to increase from here on.Irrespective of the exchange rate, which is not currently in its favour, QBE is expected to produce a very good report.If management increases its interim dividends, it will please the shareholders and send all the shorts covering.They are a lot of shorts that use cfds that takes profit on a few cents especially from day traders which depresses the SP.I will throw more money at it and maintain an overweight position on this particularly good share. CSL was in the same boat, till they announce their profit.In bad times, QBE made acquisitions at very low cost and during good times, this always increase its profitability.I am happy to hold QBE even for a longer term and expect it to continue to do well for the next few years.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 07:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

Yep, and as I mentioned in my first post, QBE's rally had a very similar pattern to that of the XJO during the same time period which is why I suggested that it is strongly influenced by the general market. I am really looking forward to you taking me out in the next couple of months Peter.

My view is that it would be wiser to keep your money in your pockets until early to mid April when you will get an opportunity to buy it at much better prices.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 10:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy, it is never a problem, we will catch up over a glass of semillon blanc and some seafood at the Piazza.

I received a call from this lady who I thought was going to take me to lunch.I have save her some money by pointing her to the right direction for some taxation matter last week. Just as well,I didn't call her by her name, it was not her but my hair dresser who I had given a small gift after a hair cut just before Chinese New year. On that day I felt particularly good as I just sold some shares before the Chinese New year and I forgot about the whole matter. It is a custom like christmas, we give red packets with money instead of gifts.She told me she was surprise by what was in it so she offered to take me to lunch. I do not normally like to eat alone so I took up her offer and I discover this seafood place. I wouldn't let her do it on what she earns but I thanked her just for taking the trouble to come all this way to have lunch with me. At least I found a nice place to have lunch and a glass of wine instead of the usual chinese Yum Cha.

Coming back to QBE, in candlestick charting, when a share has been going up strongly, it is not unusual for it to have a pause, when the SP retrace for 3 days, then resume its upward movement, we call it the diminishing 3.
QBE seems to be in this pattern and the doji yesterday could confirm the reversal.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

I would always like to catch up with you for a dinner but I do jest about you having to pay out on our little wager. I would feel pretty mean to let you pay for the dinner after seeing you lose money (in paper terms anyway) on your QBE shares if it follows the XJO down as I expect it will.

If I read the XJO correctly the move down will not be a 3 day affair as you suggest for QBE. It should go on for 4 ~ 6 weeks before its interim bottom is reached sometime in April.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 11:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey, Peter, she must have been younger than you for you to give her 'ampow' otherwise she would be giving it to you, right! And you know, the best way to 'win' a man's heart is through his stomach!

QBE...'diminishing 3'...correct but not so reliable if you have 'spinning top and bottoms' as part of it...just highlights indecision me thinks...bit like the market in general at the moment! I also dont like that QBE just failed to take out yesterday's high stimulating sellers there. I guess I wouldn't want to see it back below 2300.

Good luck with her; I still can't find enough desire, or cash at the moment, to make the potential $2500 move you had earlier this week for a ~ 3% move....man you must have 'thrown' a large wack at her to potentially get such a profit...and you even suggested you would be buying more!

As I said, good luck with her!

Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. Do you have any Iron Ore stocks on your books? I find it interesting that BRM and IOH have really held up well during this 'bearish/corrective' whatever down/sideways move over the last 2-6 months! I also note that most of the Iron Ore stocks that I list in the "Iron Ore...last year's Cinderellas" thread that had been 'caned' in January have bounced nicely since that day!

(Message edited by gdd3 on February 25, 2010)

(Message edited by gdd3 on February 25, 2010)


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peterloh
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Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 01:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Dolphin, if she is older than me, she shouldn't be working at all. I understand she only works a day a week, the rest of the time she does a bit of charity.This customs of giving "ampows" was quite popular in HongKong and not in Malaysia, where I came from years ago.It is more a matter of feeling good than anything else, that she was grateful.It was a good idea , this ampow thing, I think it is more or less a bribe, that you get look after when you visit restaurants or people that look after you throughout the year.It is a way of saying thank you.The waiters know what to do, especially when you are in a queue, not that I want to jump any queue.I also see Australians men practicing this too in a different way. It was just before Christmas and it was at another barber where I visit regularly at the Central Coast.The hair cut was only $17 and I saw the men giving the barber $20 to $30 and telling the barber to keep the change.

I had a very good 2009 year, thanks to marsupial, he was the one that told me his experience and I only used one of his ideas. Like many of us, who got burned now again, always thinking of new ways to beat the system. He told me about his bad experience in October 2007, even all the blue chips didn't save him. So he researched and bought a lot of Oxiana and a few other exploration companies. I didn't go into any exploration companies, but bought a few of the junior miners early last year.Incidentally, Rudy was there too at the tavern. I always managed to pick up one good idea and run with it. My biggest win those days was CPU that I got in at $1.80 just after March 2003 which I sold for more than double. I will look into the cinderella thread, any particular one you prefer?.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 02:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Don't worry about whose shout, it is good to catch up with you, Rudy. My staff are away in China and HongKong and won't be back till next week. After that I will have more time.
By the way, I throw a few $s more at QBE, just then. Hope it will change the course of things(lol). By the way I have decided to take profit on the CEY I bought at $2.40 this morning, the IPL which I have off load at around 3.50 and OST too just then.

Dolphin, I still got all my iron ore companies intact but sold all my coal now. I will have to get a few more now.I was called stubborn by slowrunner yesterday for not getting rid of my BLY. Well I just bought more today, out of spite, it is not that I know something others don't know, except I see things differently. You will be surprise, I have at times identify my approach with Aitkens, sway even Rudy.

I still have heaps of property trusts bought of late and has to be revalue upwards some time. According to my men in the banking area, we have to use commercial valuers at times in our work, the commercial properties are approaching 7 o'clock. I still have a lot or the small mining companies and unfortunately CSR, which is having problem into splitting into 2 companies. The price is too low to sell now.

I also have a war chest now, so I will wait till Rudy to take the charge. The only thing is I learned from past years like 2003 and 2009, the bottom could be in March, but I am not one for details.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Thursday, February 25, 2010 - 02:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

Yep, I look forward to catching up with you. You will be pleased to know that I currently agree with you about the March 2009 low being the low for this bear market. Whilst there are EW counts that are possible which could easily breach that low at this stage I am leaning towards a less painful scenario.

The previous ABC wave in my idealised diagram posted before is 3 wave corrective pattern labeled wave C of a larger contracting wedge (triangle) pattern indicated below.



If I am correct it means that the move down between now and June this year (by my dates) should terminate above the March 2009 low (wave A) and be followed by a rally of 4 ~ 6 months in wave D. That's when I will be really bullish for a while.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Friday, February 26, 2010 - 02:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy, the Fear Index which measure volatility shows that March the 16 will be the low this year. It is the highest on that day of the month and direct opposite to that of the S&P 500. With my recent record of stock picking, this may not even turn up right. I eat humble pie. Although I was aware that the last 3 years, QBE reached the low for that year in March, I throw more money on it yesterday.I deserve a whack behind the year.

Chart of QBE showing a March low for each year.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Friday, February 26, 2010 - 03:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

I have studied the VIX/S&P500 relationship for years and what you say about them travelling in opposite directions is exactly correct.

Note however that whilst they travel in opposite directions and the VIX will peak when the S&P500 bottoms and vice versa, there really is no direct inverse relationship. By that I mean that the all time market high in the S&P500 does not (and probably never will) mean that the VIX will make an all time low at the same time. The same occurs when the S&P500 makes an all time low, the VIX will not necessarily make an all time high as the chart below clearly shows you.




There is simply no way of inferring that the March 2009 market low will not be breached in this year in both the XJO and S&P500 by looking at the VIX. That relationship simply does not exist.

By the way as I've said before, at this stage I also don't think that it will be breached but I don't use the VIX as the basis of my view on that matter.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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dennis_menace
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Saturday, February 27, 2010 - 01:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi,

Well as you may already know that the half yearly results were not greeted too well by the general market yesterday.

Down 7% to close @ $21.40.

The companies presentation can be read here:-

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=QBE&E=ASX&N=584459

I see it like this:-



Cheers
David


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hershy
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Sunday, February 28, 2010 - 06:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I do not believe that this will happen but my beliefs are irrelevant to the market. I am simply stating what I see on the chart.
The price action has dropped out of an established channel. Usually such a move signals a continuation of the direction of the last move until the width of the previous channel is duplicated. In plain English that means the the drop from channel top to channel bottom of $3.82 might be repeated by a further drop of the same size taking SP to a low of $18.25. The interesting thing about such a move is that it is right smack in the middle of a wide open gap dating back to March 09 which as everybody knows will want to be closed at some point. The bottom of the gap is $18.11.
Again I say that I doubt such a move will eventuate. It is just one of several possibilities.





Don't worry about what people think; they don't do it very often.
The wise man, even when he holds his tongue, says more than the fool when he speaks

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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rdumas
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Sunday, February 28, 2010 - 07:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hershy,

I have a slight variation to your theme. Firstly I look at the long term to get some perspective on what the status of the stock is in terms of a larger time frame pattern recognition. The chart below shows that QBE was in an impulsive move from September 2001 through to September 2007. Since that time we have been in a corrective pattern against that impulsive move.




We can see from the overlapping waves in every major wave in this latter pattern that we are still forming corrective patterns. Hence whilst on a short term basis we will have rallies, the larger pattern is still corrective against the larger impulsive pattern. This means until the higher level corrective pattern is completed, the stock must continue to go down.

Now looking at the very short term and using your chart, I have superimposed a wave equality scenario for the latest price action. Using this wave equality scenario, QBE would be destined to complete at around the $20.11 level.






I use the wave equality scenario because the first wave down was impulsive thus opening up the probability that a Zigzag pattern was in the process of being formed. As you know the most common result for a Zigzag is a wave equality scenario.

The next most common results have a third leg which has a range that is either 61.8% or 161.8% of the first leg. I'll let the readers of this post do their own maths but if we get the 161.8% range you will see your gap closed.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Thursday, March 04, 2010 - 05:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



General Insurance is a great business this year, someone else is thinking the same too.

Here is an article by Greg Hoffman from 'The Intelligent Investor'published in the SMH on the 10th February.

"If they drop much further I will double up on my investment." quoted from Greg.


QBE better than Buffett
GREG HOFFMAN

"On Monday, I described QBE Insurance as the Westfield of insurance; an all-too-rare example of an Australian company thats an international success story. Long-term shareholders have reaped tremendous benefits from their investment.

Yet those who've bought in over the past four years have seen results ranging from pedestrian to plain terrible (the share price is down 35 per cent since August 2007). It begs the question: is this an opportunity, or simply a business that isnt as good as it once was?

My money is on the former. Id say QBEs long-term future looks good (though maybe not quite as good as its past). And, if Im right, thats great news for todays shareholders. Heres my reasoning.

The global insurance industry (excluding life insurance) receives almost $US1.8 trillion ($2.1 trillion) in premium income each year. And, as developing economies grow, proportionally more is spent on insurance products. This is an industry with great tailwinds. Factors beyond your control are working for you rather than against you.

The cash flow characteristics are also attractive. Insurance premiums are paid upfront so insurance companies dont have to worry about bad debts from customers and can use that money to invest (insurers call this the float). This is an industry built on fears of what might happen, selling promises to make good if it does.

When analysing insurance stocks, it pays to examine whats known as the combined operating ratio (COR). This reveals the percentage of premiums received that are paid out in claims and expenses. A COR below 100 per cent means the insurer made an underwriting profit while a result above 100 per cent means it made an underwriting loss.

The worlds top 50 property and casualty insurers delivered an average COR of 99.4 per cent in 2008 (the most recent full year for which data is available). Having paid out almost all of their premiums in claims and expenses, they only just managed to record an underwriting profit.

QBE, meanwhile, recorded a COR of just 88.5 per cent. And the groups weighted average for the five years to December 31, 2008, was an incredible 87.8 per cent.

Thats among the best in the world and comfortably better than the 90.1 per cent average recorded by Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway over the same period.

Still, the global downturn caused premiums to fall and volatile financial markets played havoc with investment results, which explains why QBEs share price has suffered. Earnings per share may fall in 2009 and, if they do, that would be the second consecutive year theyve done so.

Conditions in America are particularly testing with a pick-up not expected until later this year. Investors faith is being tested and many are succumbing, hence the share price fall.

Its vital at such moments to block out the white noise that surrounds share price tumbles. Instead, focus on the long term.

The accompanying table summarises the growth in the all-important measures of earnings and dividend per share growth over the past five and 10 years. These are based on The Intelligent Investors estimates for the year to December 31, 2009 (the official results will be reported February 26).

5-year growth p.a. 10-year growth p.a.
Earnings per share: 10.2% 19.5%
Dividends per share: 18.7% 14.6%

The growth is impressive, a combination of industry expansion, underwriting discipline and a string of well-integrated acquisitions. These themes, Id suggest, are likely to continue.

So with a dividend yield of 5.7 per cent and a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 12, QBE Insurance is just the kind of high quality but out-of-favour gem we focus on at The Intelligent Investor. Patient investors can reasonably hope to reap respectable capital gains over the coming years and a handy stream of dividends."
"
This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288)."

Greg Hoffman is research director of The Intelligent Investor which provides independent advice to share market investors.

Since this article, QBE has fallen another 12%, the dividend yield is over 6.7% and the pe now is less than 11,I wonder Greg has bought anymore since, I have picked up a few more yesterday. Momentum for QBE is on the downside, however it will have to stop some time. The market is very volatile, time may prove him to be right, however DYOR or speak to your adviser before you trade this particular counter.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Thursday, March 04, 2010 - 07:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

On the 21st February I cautioned investors on this thread that QBE was at risk of falling dramatically in the short term. On the 22nd of February you said that me "calling for a 10% drop in 6 days was a big call". You also suggested that there was nothing that you could see that would suggest that sort of a fall. I responded by reminding you that I said that the fall would commence within 6 days not that the stock would have that drop in 6 days, and then proceeded to tell you how I came up with my conclusion.

I haven't really been following closely but I notice just now that on the 22nd February QBE peaked at $23.93 and yesterday it closed at $20.38. That was a drop of 14.8% !!!

I haven't heard you say anything about that call.

I think that at the very least you should admit that I won my wager. I only hope that there is at least one investor out there that took notice of my caution and saved themselves a packet of money.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eagle
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Peterloh - despite what Intelligent Investor says the market has, at least in the short term, voted against QBE. It is the old chestnut - short-term the market is a voting (emotional) machine and long-term the market is a weighing machine (logically assessing eps and other measures).

The challenge for each of us is to know why we buy and to follow that line. Rudy quite rightly predicted a short term drop. In contrast your analysis is about the fundamentals. Hence when you decide to buy isn't steered as much by current price (though of course we all love to buy as low as possible) but future price. No method is perfect. I'm sure Rudy part wishes he still had his BHP as it may have pushed higher as the market (at least temporarily) defies his call for a downturn. But we all make our calls on an analysis and have to live with that.

I jumped in and out of QBE with the CFDs to make a small gain. That was my trading hat. Conversely I kept my long term holding (some bought during the SP drop post 2011 Twin Towers when QBE price tanked). I can't attend the market all the time so the challenge is to be clear why you buy. My long term holdings are there for dividends not short term price gains (or sometime losses). Knowing you can financially survive whatever downside you assess and then from DYOR acting accordingly.

I'm not sure when Rudy would predict the corrective wave to end on QBE and for it to rise - but I assume it will one day. In the meantime your approach seems to be to harvest the dividends. Enjoy spending a few of them your lunch with Rudy and whatever other pleasures you have.

You and Rudy on QBE are the Steve Keen and Rory Robertson (hope I got those names right) on Australian house prices. Steve (you) might be right on a lot of fundamental issues but Rory (Rudy) has won on short term direction.

All good fun.


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peterloh
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Thursday, March 04, 2010 - 04:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just saw your post, good call Rudy.

Eagle, I am not trying to be different, it was not a good call on my part, I could have been more careful. I don't regret though, it is part and parcel of trading. It was a reckless act, that ended up throwing more money at it than I wanted to. Timing it wrong, I had to make it right, a decision I had to make.I had done something in the past that seemed bad initially that ended well. Lets hope it work out that way.There is no excuse, lets hope I learn this lesson well and not challenge something in front of me that I ought to know, with a bit of research.Cest la vie.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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eagle
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Thursday, March 04, 2010 - 04:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy (Post 3180) - good call re equal drop to target of 20.11. QBE closed today at $20.10 (after looking briefly below $20.00). If I understand your post correctly this zigzag pattern is most common - is the next zig (or zag) of same equality (or a %)? I'm comparing it to your next most common comment re 61.8% or 161.8%. I've tried to understand your EW cheat sheet but I'm too confused for it to be clear to me.
Thanks


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 04, 2010 - 04:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eagle,

Have been out all day so didn't have time to respond to your post earlier. You wrote an excellent post above describing in part the differences in the investing styles of Peter and myself.

There is another part which you did not cover and that is the relevance of risk profiles. Risk profiles not only relate to an investors willingness to take risk but why they do or do not take those risks.

During my work life whilst most of it was spent in very conservative work roles I actually spent some time working full time as a professional punter whilst at the same time trading futures contracts. As you can see by the latter two pursuits I obviously would have been considered to have had very little fear in terms of risk taking as those pursuits are probably a couple of the riskiest activities that you can be involved with in terms of potentially losing a lot of money.

The old advice about staying in the market may work during normal market cycles but it doesn't work when you have extreme bear markets such as the one we are in the middle of at the current time. The 1929 bear market took around 25 years before the index regained its former levels. At my age I probably wont be around in 25 years time. Even the less severe 1987 bear market took 9 years to get to and stay above the previous highs.

When I retired I actually did so with what I consider was a marginal capital base. By that I mean it was only just adequate to allow my wife and myself to live a reasonable life style without really having a lot of capital to squander on mistakes or ego driven trades. When you make a decision to retire on a marginal capital base it causes you to adopt a risk averse investment strategy.

The first rule of maintaining an adequate capital base under these circumstances is don't lose your money. I managed to pull out of the market through my analysis in December 2007 when it had dropped around 2% from the peak on the 1st November. Having come to the conclusion that this was no ordinary bear market I put virtually all of my cash into term deposits until around April 2009.

You will always find that my investments will always err on the side of caution. I don't post all of my trades but some I do share with IC readers in order to discuss a particular trading aspect. When I do go into a publicly posted trade I will always tell readers when I exit that trade because I have found in the past that some posters have published trades that went horribly wrong and those posters never ever told readers when they exited the market. There are a few readers who are not confident with their investments and they make the mistake of following the advice of experienced posters. When it is suggested by an experienced poster that a particular trade looks promising I feel that it is the moral duty of those who give that sort of advice to also let these readers know when to get out.

My investment strategy will always get me out early for the reasons given earlier in this post. On most occasions I do not attempt to milk out every last percentage point out of a trade. I am happy to take a 'chunk out of the middle' of a rally and leave the risky part of the rally to others.

In my experience investors will adopt different trading strategies when they have the benefit of a second income stream coming from outside of the market to those who are actually entirely living off their investment activities.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eagle
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Thursday, March 04, 2010 - 04:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy - you are spot on re risk profile. I noticed the difference in my approach to money/investments when I got made redundant end 2008. That surprised me and pushed me back into work.

My trading approach is very low level at present as I learn in anticipation perhaps of not working one day and maybe having to look to trading as a supplementary income.

I acknowledge the time it takes to recover from big bear markets. And I am concerned we're in one but I'm not yet clear on that (despite all the bad news). While I read your posts and accept them (to a degree) as I'm new on this forum I'm trying not to accept everyone's views but to try and learn from them and will see whose track record justifies more attention. Your QBE call wins you the first gold star from me. Still waiting to deliver the next one on the market as a whole.

As you'll have seen from my last QBE post on EW - I've not yet got around to comprehending EW yet - in time maybe. For now I'm learning the more simplistic TA approaches which as you've said elsewhere provide a good rear view of where the stock has been not where it is going. A step at a time for now.


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rdumas
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Thursday, March 04, 2010 - 04:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Eagle,

Thanks for noticing the call of mine mentioned in your post above. There are many different types of corrective patterns covered by EW analysis. There are some very complex patterns that have multiple wave formations but there are two very common patterns that consist of 3 wave moves.

The Zigzag is one of these patterns. The other common 3 wave pattern is a Flat pattern but I will just focus on the Zigzag in this post or we'll end up with a War and Peace novel. Note that at what is knows as the higher level it consists of 3 waves (refer to the figure at the LHS of the diagram below. On a daily chart it may look like that figure. If you drilled down to the next level in an intraday chart you would see that each of those 3 waves in fact consisted of a number of 'sub waves'.

In the case of a Zigzag, the idealise first wave would be an impulse wave (with either 5, 9 or 13 waves obeying the EW rules for an impulse wave). That impulse wave is labeled wave A at the higher level.





The next wave (wave B) is shown as another 3 wave move on the above diagram. In practice it could be any of a number of different configurations but all of these would be some form of corrective wave pattern (ie a pattern that goes against the trend of the larger current pattern). So regardless of how many waves this B wave has in it, when it completes it will go into wave C which will be another impulsive wave pattern (similar to wave A).

Now Fibonacci ratios work quite well with various EW patterns. They work particularly well with Zigzags. By far the most common out come is that wave A and C will be close to equal in length (ie have a Fib ratio of 100%). 61.8% and a 161.8% ratios are the next most commonly occurring Fib ratios in Zigzags.

So in terms of a corrective wave, a Zigzag will always open up with a 5 wave pattern (either an impulse wave or a leading diagonal). You have examples of what both look like from the Cheat sheet that I posted. When you see a corrective pattern that starts this way you know that a Zigzag pattern will form.

Once you know what the range of wave A is then all you have to do is wait for wave B to complete. Once it does complete then wave C will always be either another impulse wave or an ending diagonal. Again, you will see examples of what an ending diagonal looks like from my Cheat sheet. Note that leading and ending diagonals are just another form of 5 wave pattern.

Knowing that you have a Zigzag in play you can then assume that wave C will more than likely terminate at a range that is either 61.8%, 100% or 161.8% of the range of wave A.

If you saw a 5 wave pattern almost completing near one of those ranges then you know its time to pull out off your trade.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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hershy
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Monday, March 08, 2010 - 04:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The correction seemingly over - subject to what happens tonight on Wall street of course, I am allowing myself to be swayed by the FA arguments on the worth and merits of QBE. Having done my TA and FA calculations and cosiderations, I have found a fool proof method that identifies QBE as a very good investment.
Had to go to a funeral with Precious (my wife) and it started to rain. That's when I noticed the omen:






'You, you, and you ... Panic. The rest of you, come with me.'
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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eagle
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Monday, March 08, 2010 - 04:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hershy - it has to be a good sign that there the hail Melbourne has been experiencing couldn't break the QBE umbrella!!!! . I suspect the hail storms have passed so you will have to test it when the next hail storm comes - take out some insurance on the umbrella though in case the hail does damage it. The premium will add to QBE revenue and SP!!


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peterloh
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Tuesday, March 09, 2010 - 12:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hershy, I guess eagle was right, I bought 50% more of QBE on the last day before it went exdiv, just for the dividends. As we are in the same industry, it is difficult to ignore the performance of this company even when its results was affected by the GFC of late.I know the fundamentals is right, now for the TA to do its part.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Tuesday, March 09, 2010 - 08:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hershy,

In the following chart, can you see an impulse wave down and a 3 wave corrective wave up?




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 11:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



QBE Statistics

March 2008 low $19.50
May high $$26.52 Difference $7.02

March 2009 low $15.01
May high $22.75 Difference $7.74

March 2010 low $19.99
May high ? Difference ?

If the form runs true, then we are looking at a SP of $27 plus top in May 2010.
Interesting if you can take advantage of this knowledge.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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gdd3
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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 02:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting call, Peter....not 'talking your book' are you? Sorry, must agree in our 'mutual' friend, Rudy's assessment and that is a little more to the downside first ...say $19.00- $18.50.

But, hell , what do we(all) know?

Dolphin


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espresso
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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 02:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes I agree, heading down towards $19.00 and thatís on a good day. Will reassess then.


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peterloh
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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 02:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Qua sera sera, whatever will be, will be.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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espresso
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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 02:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



HAHAHAHA :-) I like it...
Thatís a good attitude.
Thatís why we all have a trading strategy


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gdd3
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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 03:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Pierre...J'ne comprend pas!


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peterloh
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 09:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





It takes 2 months to get from top to bottom, January to March.How many months will it take to get to the top of the channel, if it ever will? I am riding this train,is it safe from here?


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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jimmyswell
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 10:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter, do you think that the inbound cyclone will affect QBE's short-term price?

A dip might present a timing opportunity for those thinking of buying back in.

(Message edited by jimmyswell on March 20, 2010)


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espresso
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 04:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi ALL,
I know Iím new at all this but, why would you take the risk and bank your money on a stock thatís trending down. I thought the most profitable trades are the ones trending the stair way to heaven. and just to confirm its down trend its trading below the 30, 100, 200 EMA.



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breaker_1
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 04:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



you do whats called shorting



When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





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espresso
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 04:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Fair Call Breaker1
However I didnt think this thread was based on the stock being shortened maybe I miss read the Call.
Cheers


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elisabeth
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 05:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter, I like your pitchfork and, as you hold, hope that your chart is indicative of what is likely to happen here.

I agree with Espresso - Iím negative on QBE, mostly because of the huge volume on this volatile break from the channel.

ADX on the weekly is also confirming the strengthening of the current downtrend.

The weekly chart below shows the channels in 2008 and 2009. The break from the first channel took price down double the width of the channel. I can see QBE at least pushing down to the $19.50 area - 2009 channel width target and also tgt from scraggly ďMĒ formation Ė there was a lot of activity in that area last year which may provide support.

If it doesnít hold, it could go down to test the low from March last year, ie in the 15.50 to 16.00 area.

The Stochastic disagrees with me Ė itís just entering oversold territory and, though it can stay there for some time, QBE price seems to turn on the dips and peaks of this oscillator.

Nevertheless, I would definitely not be looking to buy QBE until the current dive shows some bottoming action.

Elisabeth

QBE weekly


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breaker_1
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 06:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Espresso,

No, the thread is not on shorting, but you asked "why would you take the risk and bank your money on a stock thatís trending down".

You would and its called shorting.

One of the biggest mistakes I've made in down trending stocks is listening to brokers say buy in it can't go much lower.

Wait for a reversal



When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





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espresso
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 07:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Breaker1,
Yes I recall a broker i used to use who suggested in the middle of the GFC to buy ANZ @ $16.00 because it was a great price to buy. I havent spoken to him since as I watched it hit $12ish.

Happy Trading


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breaker_1
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 07:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yeah, that's why we are here on IC, my trading has gone ahead in leaps and bounds with the support/education dont listen to the masses education we find here.

I reckon we should have a Christmas party at a central location so we can all meet, faces mean a lot more than over IT.

I'll supply shiraz

Senior members seem to sort out the wannabies from the fair dinkum

I,m glad to be here



When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





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hershy
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Sunday, March 21, 2010 - 07:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I was going to buy a small parcel in QBE three weeks age. then came the hail storm in Melbourne and as I work for AAMI I have been working 14 hour days 7 days a week ever since then. This did not allow me time to buy QBE and since then have decided to give it a miss. Not just QBE but all insurance stocks.
Although most if not all insurers have re-insurance to spread the risk they are faced with fairly major payouts from these catastrophic events.
To add to their woes there are new companies setting up shop; one South African and one American and competition is bound to be fierce.
Suncorp who own AAMI and GIO and API and several other well known brands is consolidating many of it's operations, cutting down on middle and high management, reducing dividends and will under the new chairman do quite well in saving on fixed costs. But now the cyclone in QLD so soon after the hailstorm is bound to affects it's profitability as it will no doubt, affect all other insurance companies.
So Peter, and I hope this is a question that time will an answer in the affirmative - are you sure QBE will go no lower ?
I do hope it will not.


'You, you, and you ... Panic. The rest of you, come with me.'
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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espresso
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Sunday, March 21, 2010 - 07:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,
It was reported today insurance companies will be hit with up to $700 million dollar bill for the hailstorm.
So as Breaker1 suggested as shorting would be another method off winning on QBE


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espresso
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Sunday, March 21, 2010 - 08:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Having said that fundamentally QBE is on a acquisition trail, and having recently reported an increase of 6% on net profit ($1.9B) and when directors are buying into the company and Colonial first with its 51 million share purchase yes I can understand the upside. However the chilli quake alone may top $8Billion...


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peterloh
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Monday, March 22, 2010 - 10:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Elizabeth, hershy and others,

I appreciate your contribution and different angles that can pop up with QBE. I have not traded QBE before but admitted I have been following its fortune for several years. Only recently did I have the courage and will to get into it. I do not use cfds or options, so I am rather conservative but I do use margin lending to help with a bit of leverage.

I have look into QBE from several angles, the 3 years chart and the pitchfork which I posted earlier. Here is another angle I have look at QBE. Elizabeth, scholastic does have a very significant impact on QBE price pattern in the last few years. In fact when ever they hit the low, QBE's SP bounce off it and rise strongly. I am posting in between meetings, so pardon me for the short post and explanation.



-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, March 22, 2010 - 12:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



QBE reported they were not affected significantly by the Chilli earthquake, Melbourne hailstone or the Queensland flood or storm.I remain on hold with my QBE shares bought cum dividend only recently.I also realised that many were disillusioned with their holding previously and no longer have them.I bought it with the purpose of a short term trade and 20% target ie growth and earnings per annum. Whether QBE is riskier, depends on how one look at risk? What is the measure of risk?


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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eblode
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Monday, March 22, 2010 - 12:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter,
As I mentioned I recently sold QBE and added to my holdings of DWS which for some reason has never taken off and is unknown to most traders. DWS has no debt and pays a 6% franked dividend. Expanding business in a strong sector. Take a look.

Eugenio


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peterloh
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Monday, March 22, 2010 - 01:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eugenio, this type of industry are the same, currently very high yield and the share price is getting nowhere. I used to own UXC a couple of years back. I just checked it just then.It is paying a fully franked dividend of 9c 100% frank. Yet the SP is only 50c, a yield of over 20%.Both were also buying their own shares to support their SP.I do not think the share is very liquid too.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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eagle
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Monday, March 22, 2010 - 02:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have held QBE for about 10 years. Whenever a disaster hits (hailstorms, earthquakes etc) their shareprice tends to get knocked along with others in the sector. This is particularly so for local (ie Aussie) disasters. Yet a large proportion of their income is overseas so even if impacted it's usually not significant. A lot of times it has taken till the next half-year report for them to clarify that they don't have significant exposure to event X.

In 2001 I did what was mentioned in an earlier post on this thread - listened to my broker say - "they're a great company and they have some exposure to the World Trade Centre but if they survive that the SP will come back". (I don't endorse listening to brokers though - its a tip to go investigate like all the comments on this forum). A bold call as it wiped a whole year's profit back then (if memory is correct). They raised some money to cover it and the rest of their business went on as "normal".

Back then they paid about 30c div - now it's about $1.20. I think I picked them up around $5 - they went to $3 I think (don't have charts at hand). I'm not saying they will continue to grow at that rate but they have a good record despite what the share price says. Hence the QBE I have in my "retirement" portfolio I'm not too worried about the price - I just want them to keep acquiring and growing top-line revenue and apply their smarts to improve the bottom line and hence divs.

Outside that portfolio - I trade shares or CFDs (sometimes) on them. They are reasonable volatile (due to hailstorms, earthquakes etc?) and hence you can pick up a bit here and there.

Be clear why you have them and goals of that ownership and you can win both ways. Overall a great run company. The next big time to buy them will be when their CEO Frank O'Halloran retires. He has overseen the discipline applied to over 100 acquisitions and though he must have a good team around him, the market will think the magic has left. I expect there to be a sell-down at that time. I'll be watching charts then for that to slow and pick some more up.


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gdd3
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Monday, March 22, 2010 - 03:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I think Peter's Pitchfork 'forecast' is ok? but I present this question, and chart, to ask "which Pitchfork is the controlling one?".

Peter, correct me if Im wrong, but I do believe a bullish Andrew's Pitchfork does not 'cater' for the bottom prong of the 'fork' to start below the low of the 'handle/start' of the 'fork'(as you have shown) hence why I have shown which pitchfork I think is the controlling one(in my opinion...blue). Action from here must 'clear the top 'prong' of the blue P and remain above the bottom of the white P for the white P to become the dominating one! And, then who knows QBE might get back to your middle 'prong' of your pitchfork(and then you can 'patent' your own "Pitchfork" tool.



Good luck with her, I hope she works out for you!

Cheers
Dolphin


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peterloh
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Monday, March 22, 2010 - 05:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dolphin, now that you, Ruby and Elizabeth had presented the different version of QBE, I can only hope and pray.Holders of QBE or past holders do have a better idea on what it will do. Me, I only see what I see in front of me, sometimes not aware of the idiosyncracy of the share itself. This share is over analyse, next time I will select one less well known.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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prater64
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Tuesday, March 23, 2010 - 11:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just for those that didn't know already, Perth got hit by storms yesterday evening which may hit the insurers a little more. Nothing like nature giving them a kick while they are down I guess.

It does however pose the question, if they do take another hit in price from the latest weather realated news, would they become significantly undervalued and perhaps force a reassessment.

Just a thought.


"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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elisabeth
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Tuesday, March 23, 2010 - 05:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter, a broker on thebull.com.au has listed QBE as buy this week as below.....

QBE Insurance (QBE)

The insurance giant reported net profit after tax of $1.97 billion for full-year 2009, up 6 per cent on 2008. Gross written premiums increased 10 per cent to $14.5 billion. With short term interest rates likely to increase from these low levels (worldwide), expect QBE to generate rising investment income as most of its $23 billion insurance float is largely invested in short term cash and income securities.


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peterloh
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Tuesday, March 23, 2010 - 09:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/100317-EurekaReport_Q BE.pdf

Check the above website out, Elizabeth.

Charlie Aitkens of Under the Southern Stars, last week selected as 1 in his portfolio, also as a star player out of form.

There are a lot of shorts on this one, both covered and uncovered.They have to buy back some time. Sentiments will also change all of a certain, as in CSL recently. I won't write off QBE so easily.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Tuesday, March 23, 2010 - 09:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Prater, it is already very cheap, except it is not the price of a song yet.Just my opinion, many like it to go down further before they buy it. I am never able to buy at the bottom, or sell at the top, thats just me.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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philr
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Tuesday, March 23, 2010 - 09:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter

Always makes me nervous when a broker recommends a stock.


Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

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peterloh
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Wednesday, March 24, 2010 - 05:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Philr, they have to make a living like us, it is their job. Sometimes they do make a bad call, their job is to make as many good calls as possible. Lets face it sometimes the market does not turn out the way we want. At other times, brokers have a conflict of interest, in which they have to declare. Lets not be too harsh on them.I enjoy reading them as another source of reference. Whether they are reliable, it is then for us to judge.They are just there for our use, we do not have to follow their recommendation.Lets not taint them all with the same brush, some are better than others.

As chartists, we think that we are the best in the world.
If that is the case, everyone who is a chartist will be rich.There are many aspects in a good trader, like money management, psychology and others, it is just how we package it.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Friday, April 09, 2010 - 02:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





Bollinger Bands tightening and March has come to past and QBE survive and did not go lower than the ex-dividend. If anything, it has recovered and is back to the share price before it went ex. There is 3 more weeks to go in April, it may go up a bit or most likely, it may go sideway.What ever it is, the tight bands will likely result in a better SP or a lower one for QBE.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dennis_menace
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Thursday, July 01, 2010 - 08:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Closed below the important $18 mark at $17.70 on higher than average volume - just over 10 million


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espresso
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Thursday, July 01, 2010 - 09:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi,
Its very hard to imagine, QBE at $11.00



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dennis_menace
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Friday, July 02, 2010 - 09:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Espresso,

What makes you think it is ONLY going to $11 and not even lower given the present negativity in the market place?

Regards
David


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espresso
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Saturday, July 03, 2010 - 12:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Giday David,
Fair call, your absolutely right, as I was being conservative. At some point whoever is reviewing QBE will need to ascertain that same Question. Break through $11 and $7.50 could be the next stop.
Cheers



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dennis_menace
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Saturday, July 03, 2010 - 01:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Espresso,

I wasn't having a go at you. I was just curious to know how you had come to your conclusion that it could/would go as low as that. I personally see the $15-16 area being the next port of call useless a miracle takes place with the worlds economy.

Keep the good work up. It would be far more boring not having members like yourself making contributions at the present time.

Regards
David


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espresso
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Saturday, July 03, 2010 - 03:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks David,
I truly didnít think in any way you were having a go, as I agree and acknowledge your question / enquiry.
My thoughts are that when a stock begins to trail below the EMA 200, as is in this case. It takes a lot of energy, fundamentally and technically, to turn around the titanic.
My other thought is the stock heading down will usually duplicate or mirror what its history has been and along the journey there will be many issues that will help it reach this point, including economics, climate or just fear.
Besides filling in many Gaps on its way down, formed as it was heading up.
The monthly trend lines indicate the stock heading anywhere between $8.00 and $11.00
I notice a gap at $9.45 and that doesnít justify my thoughts, only time will tell. For all those people who are holding QBE long I hope Iím wrong.
And if your holding it short good luck.

George


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dennis_menace
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Saturday, July 03, 2010 - 07:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For those holding for the long term it may well be worth shorting the stock. After all it's some form of insurance your getting that the company won't give you!!


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peterloh
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Monday, July 05, 2010 - 09:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



David, I sold the majority of my holding at a small loss. I still have a couple of thousand. Isn't it better to sell the whole lot instead of holding a short and long position of the same share?

Cheers,

peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010 - 10:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

For what it's worth, QBE looks like it's in the midst of a final impulse wave down in a higher level corrective wave. The 5th wave that it is currently forming could be completing soon. If the 5th wave had the same range as the first wave then QBE would terminate at around the $17.25 level. The next level would be the 127.2% of of the first wave which would give a target of $16.65.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010 - 04:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

My aim was a little out. QBE bounced off $17.11 not $17.25 as I expected.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010 - 05:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just managed to have a look at IC just then and came across both your posts. Great call, Rudy.

I suppose this one is not a buy yet till the cock crows.
I am surprise, management is not applying any capital management to date to protect their shareholders value. Perhaps they do not think it is that important.

Despite all the good fundamentals, it is irrelevant, if the SP doesn't back it up. Although the percentage is small as part of the index, it is still a problem for fund managers.

Peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dennis_menace
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Username: dennis_menace

Post Number: 1210
Registered: 09-2002

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Tuesday, July 06, 2010 - 08:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rdumas,

I remember a proverb "one swallow doesn't make a summer" which comes to mind

Which advises caution against getting one's hopes up too early just because initial signs may look encouraging. Just because you see one swallow doesn't guarantee that there's not another cold snap on the way.

Given that only 3 stocks came up on my scan tonight out of 2020 stocks, I think there is still along way to go before this market is going to be safe enough to put good money into. Btw, the best of those 3 stocks was WFM ( Webfirm Group Limited) creating a good base pattern. This is not a buy recommendation so do your own research.

Regards
David


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espresso
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Username: espresso

Post Number: 106
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010 - 08:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,
QBE is a long way away from the 30wk EMA, unless someone is trying to get on by guessing the bottom..
From what I have recently read QBE is on a big acquisition adventure in europe.
Just payed $A400 million for Belgian-based reinsurer Secura.
Is that a cash positive purchase or has this gone on the credit card!



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dennis_menace
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Username: dennis_menace

Post Number: 1218
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 07:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dropped 10% in the past couple of days......starting to look like a falling knife formation.


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dennis_menace
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Username: dennis_menace

Post Number: 1219
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 07:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This link maybe of interest to some here.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/insurance-australia-group-iag-3 37-qbe-insurance-qbe-1671/story-e6frg9lo-1225897433036

Regards
David


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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 3754
Registered: 03-2003

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Friday, July 30, 2010 - 12:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The charts speak for itself after all. Got rid of my last 1500 shares, a costly mistake led on by misleading lines from management. A downgrade just a few weeks after confirmation that its financial situation has not changed, is just too much to bear.
Just as well,I already had my doubts and thought management is trying to cover up with more acquisition. Instead of investing more in equities,they have elected to invest defensively and with interest rates of 1%, anyone can see, it is getting nowhere.Instead of just holding 7% in growth assets, an allocation of double that size would have done the world of good for them, a case of too conservative an approach. It is like holding cash just because it is safe, whilst inflation is running away with the value.







-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4152
Registered: 11-2006

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Friday, October 08, 2010 - 02:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

Probably time to have another look at QBE. To me it looks like it may have found a bottom.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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