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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

KZL - another fallen angel

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: short term (strictly TA) » Archive through October 14, 2010 » KZL - another fallen angel

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baysider
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Username: baysider

Post Number: 266
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Sunday, January 10, 2010 - 10:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all
KZL has just popped it's head up to a new closing high at $1.22 on Thursday and has retraced back just below the $1.20 resistance on Friday. It's been going sideways since May 09 so I wouldn't be surprised to see this one move higher on Monday.
After such a long sideways move following a big move up from the depths of 25c am I right in thinking this one has potential to move towards the $2 mark?
New Chinese funding came through earlier in the year so I believe it's balance sheet is in much better shape. Peter are you holding this one already?

One to think about overnight.

kzl


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hershy
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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 07:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






Hi 'sider
Very poor chart, best I can do from work.
I see the KZL chart differently. Sadly i cannot post a clearer chart but here's what I think is important.
Thursday - Strong, bullish upday with large volume. Huge gap up. So I tell myself this is surely the first of two gaps.
No follow through on Friday, volume drops heaps, price action in the top 2/3rds of the previous days range.
If it is profit taking, not much of that. Makes the previous day look like maybe an exhaustion gap ?
Looking for news I see that KZL had it's first production of nickel ore from new mine. Would this not be already built into the price ? Would that not explain Thursday's move as showing the tracks of those who trade the news ?

I worry about the large open gap but I see that KZL does produce these quite often - taking away from the importance of gaps.
I see THREE ascending triangles with varying targets.
All valid with at least three touches on both segments.
With the tools I have at hand I cannot give targets exactly but I estimate them to be b/o + 30, 40 and 70 cents .
My gut feeling tells me the lower triangle top will be re-tested. I think this is the same arae where you have your channel top. It is a chart of mixed signals so i don't know if my gut is sensitive enough to get all the messages.
Conflicting information everywhere.
For me, wait and see. I would much prefer to pick this baby up at triangle support or wait for a retest to to confirm breakout.







If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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baysider
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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 07:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for your thoughts Hershy

KZL has threatened many times to break out without following through so I'm a touch unsure about it myself. Could easily come back to $1 once again and disappoint. I've had a couple of small loss trades with this stock over the last 8 months.


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peterloh
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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 08:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



baysider,

Long term & short term chart of KZL look good.It is establishing a 7 months base ranging between 95c and $1.30. Hershy does have a point, but overall I am bullish on resources. I am for a bullish sentiment. Breaking $1.30 will see clear sky. The last time I traded KZL a few years back netted me several times what I paid for. I have fond memory of KZL. I still hold KZL bought in the last 2 months.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 01:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Look like KZL is on its way if it is able to break through the $1.30 barrier, which I have no doubt it is likely to.Well spotted, baysider.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 06:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Must say I did not expect this.


If love is blind, why is lingerie so popular?

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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dennis_menace
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Thursday, July 01, 2010 - 08:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As the title says - Another Fallen Angel!! Lowest close since April 2008



Btw, MUX which Peter L discussed in the long term section in January this year. Listed on the 10th June closed at 90c today.


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muzza
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 12:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Might be timely to revisit KZL

Daily Chart: ASX:KZL

KZL

Since the Jan high of $1.26 KZL declined some 60% to the July lows of $0.48.

Being asleep at the wheel again for all sorts of health reasons I did not spot the obvious short that was there to be had all along, and certainly from big red down candle on 30/4

Anyway, the worm has turned a bit - four tests of circa 47.5c without breaching that level indicated a reasonably strong support - took half a position.

On the dominant green candle of 23/9 which saw the EMAs cross on up volume the position was doubled to a full position.

Since then it has rallied on above average volume and reacted (on 30/7) on below average volume. This encourages me to believe that folks are reluctant to part with their shares and just perhaps all the weak hands have been flushed.

If KZL retraces to around 60c the stop will be tightened - and if it breaches 60c I wont bother with partial profits and close the position for a nice gain of around 42%.

If KZL retraces to around 60c and finds strong support the position will be doubled again - to hold effectively two positions, as under this scenario I'd be looking for a rally to around 77c which correlates nicely to the 61.8% fibbo retracement from Jan high to the August low.

Just my own views based on my more often than not flawed logic - not a recommendation to anyone.

regards
Muzza


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peterloh
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Saturday, July 31, 2010 - 12:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Keith,

Hope you are getting on top of everything.It would be good to get together again with Rudy and a few others, just to touch base.As breaker says, volume is there in the last few days, lets hope KZL does its work.

Peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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muzza
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Post Number: 326
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010 - 08:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the kind sentiments Peter - would love to catch up if that group gets together again in the future.

I am watching your posts in the long term thread on KZL - but I sense my timeframe on this one is shorter than yours.

Red candle today but volume was thin, and well below the 9 day SMA of Volume - further confirmation to me that there are stronger hands holding.

The next few sessions will give us the insights we are seeking

regards
Keith


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muzza
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 10:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All,

KZL retracing on lower than average volume - lets see if the scenario discussed above plays out over the next few days.

Daily Chart:

KZL1

Slo Stochastic (not shown) below its signal line - perhaps we will see another two to three days of retracement towards the 15dy EMA (Blue) at around 61c before we see a kick (if at all!)

regards
Muzza


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hershy
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 10:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A contrarian view from south of the border.
Previous wedge support and resistance have crossed and may both work together to keep KZL confined to the sub 70s.




"Getting angry is like taking a small dose of slow-acting poison,"
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010 - 11:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Hershy,

It is good to have other views.

Using candlestick analysis, the 28th July established a dominant candle.The share is considered bullish, as the closing price still stays above the midpoint of the dominant candle.Lets hope it pushes on from here for the holder's sake.
KZL had a big run up from 54c, it has to take a breather. Considering that the slight retrace is on lower volume, and the up days are on bigger volume, there is hope yet.






-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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jaded
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 07:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hershy-
keep in mind in material shares the Resource Tax announcement and 'resolution' in checking times of Drop and Recovery.
Tax was announced early May and 'resolved'?
early June wasn't it?

I believe this Fundamental directs significantly any Materials Chart.More so than any Planet Jazz at least!!


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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peterloh
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 12:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hershy,Jaded has raised a very good point, a reason for the sharp down turn in the SP of KZL.Those that have exited because of the so called " sovereign risk" have not all return.KZL is today a low cost producer on nickel, copper, zinc and lead.It also has now added Mungana Gold of which it owns 65%. Considering its vast new stable of additional resources, it is still only half the price of what it was in January and 15% down since the announcement of the proposed RSPT. Now that the tax is dead and buried
for other resources besides iron ore, coal and oil/gas, KZL has yet to recover it's SP. There is a slight indication that the fund managers are coming back to this particular counter in the volume of transaction last week which was more that a whole month of transaction.We will have to wait and see whether this buying in KZL's share will continue.







-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Post Number: 3208
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Thursday, August 05, 2010 - 08:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dug and Peter,
I agree with you both.
Cheers.


"Getting angry is like taking a small dose of slow-acting poison,"
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

 
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